基于GIS的海域定级系统研究

为提高海域定级工作的效率和成果的精度与质量,在海域定级原理研究的基础上,基于GIS技术和数据库技术设计开发了海域定级系统。该系统的主要功能模块包括:因素因子体系的建立;语言型、域值型、数值型、点扩散型和线扩散型影响因子的量化方法;层次分析法计算影响因素因子权重值;海域定级及结果显示。     

Stakeholders’ expectations towards a proposed marine protected area: A multi-criteria analysis of MPA performance criteria

In order to enable effective management of marine protected areas (MPAs), desired MPA achievements need to be identified as early as possible for the development of relevant and clear management goals, objectives and conservation targets. As the definition of MPA success is a social construct, the involvement of multiple groups in this process including government agencies, stakeholders, and other interested parties is increasingly advocated. This study investigates diverse groups’ opinions on the performance of a proposed National Marine Conservation Area (NMCA) on the West coast of Canada prior to its establishment. In order to analyse and quantify the importance of MPA performance criteria among multiple stakeholder groups, the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is applied. Findings reveal that marine stakeholder groups have distinct preferences for future MPA performance. Most differences are obvious between user and non-user groups. The study also finds that respondents’ characteristics other than stakeholder groups affiliations influence expectations towards the proposed MPA including livelihood dependency on the marine environment, amount of time spent in the area, and engagement in fishing activities.     

基于遥感的台州市海啸脆弱性评估

遥感技术由于具有强大的对地观测能力,因而在灾害评估方面表现出了巨大的潜力。本文基于灾害风险评估理论,利用ASTER GDEM高程数据,NPP/VIIRS灯光数据和LANDSAT卫星影像3种遥感数据对台州市海啸脆弱性进行了评估。主要从暴露性,敏感性和恢复能力3个方面进行了研究:暴露性主要分析了离岸距离因子;敏感性除了考虑到高程、坡度和海岸形状等自然地理因子外,同时也兼顾了社会经济因子;恢复能力主要由土地利用进行分析。利用层次分析法(AHP)计算了敏感性四因子的权重值。最后将脆弱性分为高、较高、中等、较低和低5个等级。脆弱性分析结果显示,台州市沿海研究区域中,78.1%的区域属于低脆弱性,5.9%区域是稍微脆弱,5.4%属于中等脆弱,8.8%是稍高脆弱性,还有1.8%属于高脆弱性区域。脆弱性偏高的地区大多位于近岸6 km内,高程和坡度较小的区域。该脆弱性分析方法可推广到全国其他县市区域的海啸风险评估工作中,为政府海啸防灾减灾工作提供科学参考。     

基于综合指数法的长江口及其邻近海域水质环境综合评价

根据1998-2006年在长江口及邻近海域监测得到的水质要素数据,利用层次分析法(AHPM)和主成分分析法(PCAM),建立了该海域水质环境综合评价指标体系,并计算得到2006年长江口及邻近海域水质环境综合指数及其分布状况,分析了不同分区水质环境综合指数的变化趋势.结果表明:(1)与等指标权重相比,通过监测数据赋予各个...     

跨海桥梁船撞风险综合评估

近年来全世界范围内船撞桥事故时常发生,尤其是大型跨海桥梁,对其进行合理的船撞桥风险评估逐渐成为桥梁安全运营的重要保障之一。通过对近年国内外船撞桥案例调研分析,确定了影响事故的多重因素,建立包括4个二级风险评价指标和18个三级指标的层次化评价指标体系,并运用层次分析（AHP）法和熵权法,对各评价指标进行主客观综合赋权,明确各个风险因素对船舶撞击的重要性程度,基于模糊数学理论对船撞桥风险进行多层次综合评判。以浙江省舟山朱家尖跨海大桥为工程背景,结合该桥某年船舶通航统计数据,运用上述方法进行船撞桥风险评估,计算表明朱家尖跨海大桥平均风险评价值为4.22,属于可接受中风险水平,并提出了相应的风险控制对策及措施。     

基于LAHP-TOPSIS方法的围填海方案选择研究

针对围填海不同规模方案的选择问题,目前已有很多文献建立了评价指标体系,然而利用数学算法进行评价研究的还比较少。文章以现存的评价指标体系和专家评分为基础,利用语言层次分析法(LAHP)来计算各个评价指标的权重,并采用多属性决策方法——逼近理想点法(TOPSIS)对不同规模的围填海方案进行排序,从而选出最优方案。进一步用实际的例子,说明了利用LAHP-TOPSIS方法进行方案排序的步骤,给出了评价结果。结果显示:文章提出的评价方法能够为沿海及港口城市围填海方案提供有效的评价工具,对于围填海规模方案选择具有重要意义。     

水雷作战效能海洋环境影响评估

提出并定性分析了海洋环境对水雷作战效能的影响,提出了构造模糊隶属函数,归一量化描述不同环境参数;采用层次分析法构建水雷作战效能指标参数,建立水雷作战效能与海洋环境参数之间的关联和层次结构,构造环境参数到水雷效能的训练样本;采用机器学习方法对海洋环境影响下水雷作战效能进行评估。通过实例,给出了水雷作战效能量化评估过程。     

Spatial fisheries management: A framework for multi-objective qualitative assessment

In many circumstances, quantitative assessment of fisheries management options is either impossible due to data deficiencies or impractical given the size of the fishery. Quantitative analysis of spatial management options in particular is complicated, as information on spatial fleet and stock dynamics is often unavailable and spatial models are difficult to construct. In this paper, a qualitative framework is presented that aids in the analysis of alternative spatial management options in coastal fisheries. The framework combines expert opinion and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to determine which options perform best taking into account the multiple objectives inherent in fisheries management.     

应用层次分析法确定道路属性指标的权重

在车辆导航系统的路径规划中,如何标定道路权重是一个很重要的问题,本文应用层次分析法(AHP),对道路元素的各种属性指针进行加权,获得了较切合实际的指针权重结果,为车辆导航系统中的路径规划提供更准确的结果,使获取的最优路径更切合实际。     

知识不确定条件下的海外保障基地自然风险情景模拟评估

针对海外保障基地面临的自然风险,在风险辨识基础上,构建了风险评价指标体系和海外保障基地自然风险的贝叶斯网络评估模型,并进行了情景模拟下的量化实验评估。针对目前贝叶斯网络评估过程中的群决策和决策偏好问题,引入了犹豫层次分析思想来优化计算指标风险隶属度,改进了评估过程中的客观性和适用性。     

Comparing uncertain alternatives for a possible airport island location in the North Sea

This paper presents a methodology for making decisions based on uncertain information through the use of an analytical feasibility study of an airport island in the North Sea as an alternative to the present inland airport, Amsterdam Schiphol, in The Netherlands. The multidisciplinary project, called Flyland, quantified several conflicting aspects, including uncertainties, for each of five alternative locations for the new airport. The methodology combines the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Monte Carlo approaches and allows comparison of the alternatives on the basis of their morphological and ecological effects. The resulting scores rank the alternatives and quantify the distinctions between them by taking uncertainties into account. We found that with respect to morphology and ecology, it is most favourable to keep the Dutch national airport inland. The methodology can easily be extended to include other factors and reflect a wider range of multidisciplinary aspects (costs, accessibility, environmental aspects) of the airport island location.     

An investigation of constraints upon fisheries diversification using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)

Fishers in the UK face a range of administrative, economic and sociocultural challenges that influence the profitability and ultimate viability of their profession. While some fishers have responded to these challenges by diversifying into complementary activities such as tourism, marketing and retail, little is known of the constraints that deter individuals from adopting this strategy. This paper seeks to address this gap in knowledge by examining the relative importance of different constraints upon fisheries diversification using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). A survey of fishers and non-fishing stakeholders in the English Channel fishery revealed that respondents attributed similar levels of importance to the influence of administrative constraints, lack of opportunities, social constraints and economic factors; but considered lack of information to be relatively unimportant. The high level of inconsistency observed throughout the sample highlights a potential limitation of using AHP with research subjects who are unfamiliar with this technique.     

Stakeholders’ perspective on the sustainable utilization of marine protected areas in Green Island, Taiwan

The management implications of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) cover the interactions and two-way effects between the ecosystem and local residents. Hence, support or resistance from stakeholders is critical to management effectiveness. The inclusion of the perspectives of stakeholders into the MPAs of sustainable utilization can reduce opposition and conflict, improving the effectiveness of MPA management through the input of local residents. This study used interviews, questionnaire surveys, and the Analytic Hierarchy Process to obtain the opinions of different groups regarding the choices and preferences of stakeholders in the assessed factors of the sustainable utilization of MPAs in Green Island, Taiwan. The results showed that the stakeholder groups have a consensus on the “completeness of ecosystems,” “processing of wastes and pollutants,” and “integrated management.” These results provide insight into the varying perspectives held by individual groups, accelerating the integration of different opinions in order to facilitate appropriate solutions and smooth negotiations.     

利用常规测井资料识别砂岩储层大孔道方法研究

通过对测井原理、水淹层解释、大孔道形成机理的研究,总结大孔道形成后在测井曲线上的响应特征,并利用层次分析原理对各个因素综合分析,提出1个准确合理的综合参数,最终实现人机交互式识别大孔道,称之为大孔道参数法。将其应用到大庆喇嘛甸油田大孔道判别中,取得令人满意的结果,正确率达80%以上。结果表明:大孔道参数法识别大孔道是行之有效的。     

长江河口海域生态系统健康评价指标体系及其初步评价

基于结构功能指标体系评价法,利用层次分析法构建长江河口生态系统健康评价指标体系,并选择2002年至2004年8月生态调查数据对其进行初步的定量评价.结果表明,可以通过物理化学指标、生态学指标和社会经济学指标三大类30个指标来建立长江河口生态系统健康评价指标体系;2002年至2004年8月长江河口生态系统的整合健康指数(IHI_YRE)分别为3.09,3.17和4.36,均低于系统健康指数值(5),河口生态系统总体上处于健康与不健康之间(3≤IHI_YRE≤5).而且,从目前河口海域的污染现状来看,这一海域的水体富营养化比较严重,且状态比较稳定,使其恢复到健康状态需要投入巨大的物质和能量.     

Validating RAPFISH sustainability indicators: Focus on multi-disciplinary aspects of Indian marine fisheries

In determining the importance of fisheries sustainability indicators, stakeholders’ interest plays a defining role in the fisheries management practices. The indicator based tools such as RAPFISH have been available for sustainability assessment of fishery resources. In the present study, procedures to validate the pre-selected RAPFISH, which is a multidisciplinary indicator based evaluation tool for measuring the sustainability of fishery resources, are applied. The sustainability indicators were subjected to validation process based on feedback from resource owners, users and experts, using Multi-Criteria Analyses such as Weighted Sum Model and Analytic Hierarchy Process. Based on the validation results, suggestions have been made to improve methodology and its effective application in practice. This paper demonstrates RAPFISH as a potentially effective multidisciplinary tool for evaluation of sustainability of fishery resources.     

Management objectives of Queensland fisheries: Putting the horse before the cart

A review of future management arrangements for the Queensland East Coast Trawl fishery was undertaken in 2010 to develop a management plan for the next 10 years. A key question raised at the start of the review process was: what should the management plan achieve? As with fisheries management in most countries, multiple management objectives were implicit in policy statements, but were poorly specified in some areas (particularly social objectives) and strongly identified in others (e.g., an objective of sustainability). As a start to the management review process, an analysis of what objectives the management system should aim to achieve was undertaken. A review of natural resource management objectives employed internationally was used to develop a candidate list, and the objectives most relevant to the fishery were short-listed by a scientific advisory group. Additional objectives specific to Queensland fisheries management, but not identified in the international review, were also identified and incorporated into the objective set. The relative importance of the different objectives to different stakeholder groups was assessed using the Analytic Hierarchy Process. As with other studies, the relative importance of the different objectives varied both within and between the different stakeholder groups, although general trends in preferences were observed.     

渤海生态系统健康评价及对策研究

根据2014~2016年渤海各航次监测数据,选择22项因子构建表征研究区水环境、沉积环境、生态系统健康状态的评价指标体系,利用AHP层次分析方法对渤海生态系统的健康状况进行了评价。结果表明,渤海综合生态指数CEI为0.643,健康等级为中级,表明渤海生态系统整体处于亚健康的状态。生态健康较差和差的区域主要集中在莱州湾-渤海湾及其毗连地带的黄河三角洲地区;唐山-秦皇岛-葫芦岛近海及其纵深海域大体处于中级健康水准;渤海中部海区及其毗连的渤海海峡区域,海洋生态健康水平较高。根据评价结果,认为陆源输入、围填海工程是莱州湾和渤海湾的主要胁迫因子,并探讨了相应对策,以期为渤海的综合管理提供决策支持。     

福建海坛海峡赤潮灾害潜在生态风险评估

基于赤潮灾害风险评估理论和海坛海峡的浮游生物与水文常规监测数据, 采用层次分析法(AHP, Analytic Hierarchy Process)构建了海坛海峡赤潮灾害风险评估指标体系, 运用熵值法与变异系数法组合赋予权重, 建立了较为合理可信的评估模型, 并初步给出了海坛海峡赤潮灾害生态风险等级区划图。结果表明: 春季, 中级-较高级风险区主要分布在海峡北部, 海峡南部主要为低风险等级; 夏季, 较高级风险区存在于南部, 绝大部分海区属低风险海域; 秋季, 以低中风险等级为主, 中级风险区主要分布在海峡的西北部与东南部; 冬季, 较高级与高级风险海域位于海峡的西北部和东北部。研究海域的富营养化程度较高, 且富营养化指数权重较大, 减少氮磷入海可降低致灾、孕灾危险度, 进而能够降低赤潮灾害发生的风险。通过多年的赤潮事件结合验证表明, 赤潮发生的时空特征与致灾危险度分布具有较好的关联性。     

江苏沿海生态旅游开发与旅游产品设计研究

生态旅游是21世纪旅游业发展的新趋势,是集游览观光、保护环境和生态教育融为一体的新型旅游形式。江苏沿海有着发展生态旅游的天然优越条件,具有资源、环境、社会经济和政策等方面的优势,为其生态旅游产品开发提供了重要的基础条件。本文主要分析了江苏沿海生态旅游发展的基础条件,根据其旅游资源分布的特点,将生态旅游景观分成三带、三中心,相应的形成三个重点旅游景区,同时应用层次分析法(AHP)对三大重点旅游景观区的旅游资源进行了综合评价分析。在此基础上,结合国内外沿海生态旅游的发展趋势的分析,有针对性地提出了发展江苏沿海六大生态旅游产品的设想。