Spatial simulation of geologic variables

Analytical formulation of a general simulation model for generation of anisotropic as well as isotropic synthetic patterns in one, two, or three dimensions is proposed. It has significance for the purpose of modeling geologic properties such as ore grades, reservoir porosity, mineral distribution, fracture spacings, aperture, orientations, etc. General procedures for such a simulation by the autoregressive process are given for model parameters estimation and synthetic pattern generation. The model works on the square net basis and generates sequential patterns first along any desired direction for unidimensional simulation and then two-dimensional patterns are constructed with reference to two orthogonal unidimensional sequences. Applications to synthetic two-dimensional pattern are shown for isotropic cases with different model parameters. The extension of the model to three-dimensional space is readily available.     

Some Results on the Spatial Breakdown Point of Robust Point Estimates of the Variogram

The effect of outliers on estimates of the variogram depends on how they are distributed in space. The ‘spatial breakdown point’ is the largest proportion of observations which can be drawn from some arbitrary contaminating process without destroying a robust variogram estimator, when they are arranged in the most damaging spatial pattern. A numerical method is presented to find the spatial breakdown point for any sample array in two dimensions or more. It is shown by means of some examples that such a numerical approach is needed to determine the spatial breakdown point for two or more dimensions, even on a regular square sample grid, since previous conjectures about the spatial breakdown point in two dimensions do not hold. The ‘average spatial breakdown point’ has been used as a basis for practical guidelines on the intensity of contaminating processes that can be tolerated by robust variogram estimators. It is the largest proportion of contaminating observations in a data set such that the breakdown point of the variance estimator used to obtain point estimates of the variogram is not exceeded by the expected proportion of contaminated pairs of observations over any lag. In this paper the behaviour of the average spatial breakdown point is investigated for cases where the contaminating process is spatially dependent. It is shown that in two dimensions the average spatial breakdown point is 0.25. Finally, the ‘empirical spatial breakdown point’, a tool for the exploratory analysis of spatial data thought to contain outliers, is introduced and demonstrated using data on metal content in the soils of Sheffield, England. The empirical spatial breakdown point of a particular data set can be used to indicate whether the distribution of possible contaminants is likely to undermine a robust variogram estimator.     

Estimation of the transfer function by autoregressive deconvolution techniques—An application to time series analysis

The transfer function of time-dependent models is classically inferred by the ordinary least squares (OLS) techniques. This OLS technique assumes independence of the residuals with time. However, in practical cases, this hypothesis is often not justified producing inefficient estimation of the transfer function. When the residuals constitute an autoregressive process, we propose to apply the Box-Jenkins' method to model the residuals, and to modify in a simple manner the primary convolution equation. Then, a multivariate regression technique is used to infer the transfer function of the new equation producing time-independent residuals. This three-step autoregressive deconvolution technique is particularly efficient for time series analysis. The reconstitution and the forecasting of real data are improved efficiently. Theoretically, the proposed method can be extended to the convolution equations for which the residuals follow a moving average or an autoregressive-moving average process, but the mathematical formulation is no longer direct and explicit. For this general case, we propose to approximate the moving average or the autoregressive-moving average process by an autoregressive process of sufficient order, and then the transfer function. Two case studies in hydrogeology will be used to illustrate the procedure.     

基于能量平衡原理的潜在蒸散发模型构建

为深入探索气候变化背景下更为精确的潜在蒸散发计算方法,在淮北平原五道沟水文水资源实验站开展了3组小型蒸渗仪试验,通过结合平流运动动力项并引入地表净辐射修正参数,基于能量平衡原理提出一种新的潜在蒸散发模型。结果表明：(1) 3组蒸渗仪实测数据中,2组不同加水方式下的草地覆被蒸散发相关性较好(R=0.95);(2)新的潜在蒸散发模型在有草地覆被的2组试验中模拟结果的纳什效率系数(E_NS=0.85)和均方根误差(E_RMS=0.83)均优于现有Penman系列等经验方法;(3)模型更适用于有草地覆被条件下的蒸散发估算,在淮北平原地区具有较强的适用性与优势。该模型能够提高区域潜在蒸散发模拟精度,为流域水循环过程模拟及水资源利用提供科学参考。     

Caspian Sea level prediction using satellite altimetry by artificial neural networks

The demand for accurate predictions of sea level fluctuations in coastal management and ship navigation activities is increasing. To meet such demand, accessible high-quality data and proper modeling process are critically required. This study focuses on developing and validating a neural methodology applicable to the short-term forecast of the Caspian Sea level. The input and output data sets used contain two time series obtained from Topex/Poseidon and Jason-1 satellite altimetry missions from 1993 to 2008. The forecast is performed by multilayer perceptron network, radial basis function, and generalized regression neural networks. Several tests of different artificial neural network (ANN) architectures and learning algorithms are carried out as alternative methods to the conventional models to assess their applicability for estimating Caspian Sea level anomalies. The results derived from the ANN are compared with observed sea level values and with the forecasts calculated by a routine autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model. Different ANNs satisfactorily provide reliable results for the short-term prediction of Caspian Sea level anomalies. The root mean square errors of the differences between observations and predictions from artificial intelligence approaches can be significantly reduced by about 50 % compared with ARMA techniques.     

MathCAD在地质模拟的数据分析和处理中的应用

地质模拟正从一维、二维技术向三维技术发展,需要分析和处理的数据成倍甚至上百倍增长.随着计算机技术的快速发展,数据分析和处理的速度也随之快速增长,但运用常规的编程来分析和处理这些数据费时又费力.而MathCAD具有解决这一问题的强大的数据分析、处理功能和仿真功能,将MathCAD应用于地质模拟的数据分析和处理中是十分必要的和可行的.本文简要介绍了MathCAD的功能和其在各类地质模拟的数据分析和处理中的应用.     

Deformation zones under square footings supported by clayey soils

Footing settlements depend not only on physical and mechanical properties of base soils, but also on applied load intensities and their distributions with depth, as well as on footing rigidity, shape and dimensions. An analytical expression relating rigid bearing plate and/or footing settlements to thicknesses of deformation (active) zones, which form below footing bottoms, has been previously offered by the author. The results of tests performed with 0.5, 1.0 and 4.0 m²-area square footings, constructed on undisturbed clayey soils and containing data describing active zone development, were collected from literature and analyzed. This paper presents graphical relationships between square footing settlements, active zone thicknesses and footing dimensions, which are verified by published test results performed with experimental square footings, having areas different than the ones selected for statistical analyses.     

雪峰金矿田矿床特征及找矿前景

雪峰金矿田位于雪峰弧形金锑成矿带中段,被两大断裂、三大岩体所夹持,具有地层-构造岩浆岩三位一体的极好成矿条件。向韧脆性剪切带和向张剪性破碎蚀变带共同控制了-NENW矿床、矿体的产出。矿床类型为韧脆性剪切带型,可分为破碎蚀变岩型、砂岩层控细脉浸染型、片理化蚀变岩型、石英脉型个亚类。面上和深部找矿潜力巨大,预测该区金资源量在4n×102 以上,t 进一步加强该区地质调查工作,有望实现湖南金矿找矿的重大突破。     

麦饭石的净化机理

作者通过对麦饭石理化性质的研究,认为麦饭石具有吸附和溶出两大特性。它对水质的净化作用,是通过表面吸附、胶体吸附和生成沉淀而实现的。净化作用的强度受粒度、蚀变程度和溶液的PH等因素的影响。麦饭石对金属离子有选择性吸附。它能改变溶液的PH。     

应力路径试验前后不同黄土的孔隙分形特征

为了解不同黄土孔隙形状复杂程度的差异和应力路径对孔隙形状复杂程度的影响,对两种黄土应力路径前后孔隙分形特征进行了研究。首先比较了3种分维模型所得孔隙分形维数的可靠性,然后选用热力学关系模型,由进汞、退汞试验得到地裂缝区黄土、充填黄土初始样和三轴应力路径试验后的孔隙分布,据此分析了两种土体进汞孔隙和退汞孔隙分形维数的差异和受载后的分形维数变化,根据退汞过程仅管形孔内的汞流出及孔隙由管形孔和球形孔组成的假定,得到了应力路径试验前后孔隙形状的改变。结果表明,热力学关系模型得到的孔隙分形维数合理、可靠。初始状态,原状和重塑充填黄土的孔隙形状比原状和重塑黄土复杂;常规三轴试验后试样孔隙比减少,孔隙分形维数增加,球形孔向管形孔转变;相对于常规三轴压缩试验,减围压三轴压缩试验后试样的孔隙分形维数较小,管形孔占总孔隙的体积比例较少;总体上管形孔的分形维数比球形孔大,且基本不受应力路径的影响,其占总孔隙的体积比例随着试样宏观孔隙比的减少而增加。     

The changing distribution of incomes in Dutch cities: myth and reality

Segregation is a central concept in the debate on urban issues, both in scientific literature and in society in general. The process of globalisation is particularly expected to increase polarisation and segregation in cities, resulting in the emergence of ‘ghettos’ or – as they are called in the Netherlands – ‘income neighbourhoods’. This paper tries to judge the situation in Dutch cities by studying changes over time; by looking at segregation within cities as well as between cities and the wider metropolitan area; and by comparing socio-economic differences with socio-cultural and socio-demographic characteristics. The analysis shows that the empirical facts are quite different from the ongoing debate. It establishes that socio-economic segregation is more moderate than segregation with respect to the other two dimensions. Contrary to suggestions from the vernacular debate, segregation within cities is scarcely increasing, but between cities and the surrounding area it is rising with respect to all three dimensions. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

煤炭勘查中岩土参数的统计分析

基于岩土工程勘察规范中岩土参数标准值的确定方法,就修正系数在置信度为0.95和0.90的简化公式进行了讨论,并运用于煤炭勘查项目中具体力学参数的标准值计算。结果表明,工程实际中若遇试验数据不足,置信度0.95和0.90修正系数的简化公式均具有足够的精度;采用服从标准正态分布计算的置信度为0.90的单侧置信下限与采用正态分布计算的置信度为0.95的单侧置信下限相等。      

一种测量断裂构造信息维的方法及其应用

基于分形理论,提出了一种快速测量单区和多区断裂构造信息维的方法。按直线、正方形、Koch曲线及Sierpinski垫片4种图形的测量结果,信息维测量值与其理论值之间最大的相对误差绝对值仅为0.5%,表明采用该方法测量出的信息维具有较高的可靠性和准确度。在某火山岩型铀矿田开展了该方法的应用试验。该铀矿田内有超过92%的铀矿床均位于断裂信息维大于1.24的区域内,说明断裂构造信息维越大,越有利于火山岩型铀矿成矿,从而为建立新的铀矿预测标志提供了新的思路和方法。     

Indicator Variogram Models: Do We Have Much Choice?

Many variogram (or covariance) models that are valid—or realizable—models of Gaussian random functions are not realizable indicator variogram (or covariance) models. Unfortunately there is no known necessary and sufficient condition for a function to be the indicator variogram of a random set. Necessary conditions can be easily obtained for the behavior at the origin or at large distance. The power, Gaussian, cubic or cardinal-sine models do not fulfill these conditions and are therefore not realizable. These considerations are illustrated by a Monte Carlo simulation demonstrating nonrealizability over some very simple three-point configurations in two or three dimensions. No definitive result has been obtained about the spherical model. Among the commonly used models for Gaussian variables, only the exponential appears to be a realizable indicator variogram model in all dimensions. It can be associated with a mosaic, a Boolean or a truncated Gaussian random set. In one dimension, the exponential indicator model is closely associated with continuous-time Markov chains, which can also lead to more variogram models such as the damped oscillation model. One-dimensional random sets can also be derived from renewal processes, or mosaic models associated with such processes. This provides an interesting link between the geostatistical formalism, focused mostly on two-point statistics, and the approach of quantitative sedimentologists who compute the probability distribution function of the thickness of different geological facies. The last part of the paper presents three approaches for obtaining new realizable indicator variogram models in three dimensions. One approach consists of combining existing realizable models. Other approaches are based on the formalism of Boolean random sets and truncated Gaussian functions.     

Facies Modeling Using a Markov Mesh Model Specification

The spatial continuity of facies is one of the key factors controlling flow in reservoir models. Traditional pixel-based methods such as truncated Gaussian random fields and indicator simulation are based on only two-point statistics, which is insufficient to capture complex facies structures. Current methods for multi-point statistics either lack a consistent statistical model specification or are too computer intensive to be applicable. We propose a Markov mesh model based on generalized linear models for geological facies modeling. The approach defines a consistent statistical model that is facilitated by efficient estimation of model parameters and generation of realizations. Our presentation includes a formulation of the general framework, model specifications in two and three dimensions, and details on how the parameters can be estimated from a training image. We illustrate the method using multiple training images, including binary and trinary images and simulations in two and three dimensions. We also do a thorough comparison to the snesim approach. We find that the current model formulation is applicable for multiple training images and compares favorably to the snesim approach in our test examples. The method is highly memory efficient.     

冻融作用对土壤有机碳库及微生物的影响研究进展

冻融交替是作用于土壤的非生物应力,对土壤的理化和生物学性质均产生直接或间接影响.在气候变暖条件下,冻融作用对冻土区土壤碳库关键生物地球化学循环过程的影响已成为当前研究的热点.经过室内冻融模拟结合野外观测,大量研究结果表明不同冻融温度、速率、次数对土壤有机碳和微生物的影响不同.冻融作用能改变土壤理化性质,降低土壤团聚体稳...     

不同剪切作用下水合物钻井液微观结构试验研究

在钻进水合物地层过程中,井壁附近水合物的分解和环空中水合物的分解与再形成,很可能会引起井壁失稳坍塌以及环空堵塞等复杂情况,从而影响钻井的顺利进行。在此过程中,由各组分相互作用形成的钻井液微观结构起到了至关重要的作用。但由于多组分钻井液的微观结构非常复杂,文中仅针对组分简单的水基聚合物钻井液(NaCl、CMC、PVPK90相互组合),考虑钻井液在井底钻头与环空处所受的不同剪切作用(分别为600r/min和6000r/min),结合冷冻干燥方法,利用扫描电子显微镜观测了这两种剪切作用后不同组分的水基聚合物钻井液相应的微观结构。结果表明,聚合物分子以网络骨架结构形式悬浮于钻井液中,一小部分水分子、无机盐离子等被吸附在聚合物骨架结构表面上,大部分水分子、无机盐离子等小分子物质游离于聚合物网络骨架孔隙中;对于环空中含水合物的岩屑,热量主要通过网络骨架结构的热传导与充填其中流体的对流导热而传递至岩屑表面,而后通过热传导进一步向岩屑内部传递;钻井液的微观结构随着剪切作用、浓度与组分的改变而发生变化,这就对上述的传热过程产生影响,进而对钻井液中水合物分解的传热特性产生影响。     

事件地层学在生物礁研究中的应用

事件地层学不但在地层划分和对比中成为重要手段,而且在沉积学领域中的运用,也猛烈冲击了一些传统的沉积学观念,给沉积学研究领域注入了活力。人们越来越认识到,在地质历史中,沉积作用常常伴有突发的、不连续的地质事件。如众所周知的浊流、风暴、洪水、海啸等沉积。这些事件沉积无疑给沉积学研究方面开辟了新的思路和方法。本文想结合近几     

论物化探测网改革的必要性与方法理论

物化探测网长期以来沿用的矩形有许多弊病，从内生多金属（尤其金）矿床的矿体几何形态，面临找深埋矿体，歪曲异常形态，同国际接轨等多方面考虑，都有必要改革成正方网。提出矩形网转换成正方网的方法理论。     

南沙群岛及其邻近海区第四纪气候演化的非线性特征

南沙群岛及其邻近海区近１８.５万年以来气候与环境非线性研究表明曾发生三次明显气候转变，形成四个映射区。其中氧同位素第５期与第４期转变较明显，其次是氧同位素第６期与第５期的转变，最后是第３与第２期之间的变化，这与全球第四纪古气候研究结果是一致的，得到了氧同位素和古生物资料的进一步印证。半深海－深海海底沉积物有机质演化阶段在海进海退过程中表现出垂直分带和非线性变化。上陆坡以氧化堆积带为主，有机质供给多、但消耗迅速且水动力相对强；中陆坡为利于有机质保存的还原带；下陆坡为有机质缩合阶段，陆坡下缘－远洋为有机质沉降氧化带与沉积埋藏阶段的植烷形成带。这几个带在古气候、古海平面非线性变化中是沿海底向上或向下迁移的，其变化是非线性的。