Atmosphere-land cover feedbacks alter the response of surface temperature to CO2 forcing in the western United States

In order to test the sensitivity of regional climate to regional-scale atmosphere-land cover feedbacks, we have employed a regional climate model asynchronously coupled to an equilibrium vegetation model, focusing on the western United States as a case study. CO₂-induced atmosphere-land cover feedbacks resulted in statistically significant seasonal temperature changes of up to 3.5°C, with land cover change accounting for up to 60% of the total seasonal response to elevated atmospheric CO₂ levels. In many areas, such as the Great Basin, albedo acted as the primary control on changes in surface temperature. Along the central coast of California, soil moisture effects magnified the temperature response in JJA and SON, with negative surface soil moisture anomalies accompanied by negative evaporation anomalies, decreasing latent heat flux and further increasing surface temperature. Additionally, negative temperature anomalies were calculated at high elevation in California and Oregon in DJF, MAM and SON, indicating that future warming of these sensitive areas could be mitigated by changes in vegetation distribution and an associated muting of winter snow-temperature feedbacks. Precipitation anomalies were almost universally not statistically significant, and very little change in mean seasonal atmospheric circulation occurred in response to atmosphere-land cover feedbacks. Further, the mean regional temperature sensitivity to regional-scale land cover feedbacks did not exceed the large-scale sensitivity calculated elsewhere, indicating that spatial heterogeneity does not introduce non-linearities in the response of regional climate to CO₂-induced atmosphere-land cover feedbacks.     

卫星反演积雪信息的研究进展

综合分析了积雪信息反演的主要遥感信息源和提取方法。在光学遥感方面,应用较广的主要是改进型甚高分辨率扫描辐射仪（AVHRR）资料和中分辨率成像光谱仪（MODIS）资料;提取积雪信息大多是根据积雪在可见光波段的高反射率和近红外波段的低反射率,并通过建立回归模型反演积雪面积和深度。由于传感器的改进,MODIS卫星资料在空间分辨率、积雪反演算法等方面明显优于AVHRR资料。光学仪器受云层和大气的影响很大,由于云和积雪在可见光和近红外波段上都具有高反射率。并且由于云层的遮挡。云下的地表信息不能被光学遥感仪器所接收到。微波遥感方面,被动微波遥感仪如微波辐射计成像仪（SSM／I）、高级微波扫描辐射计（AMSR—E）等可以全天候穿过云层进行监测,具有光学仪器所没有的优势,并通过提取地表的亮温差,建立雪深反演模型得到积雪深度。被动微波传感器存在分辨率低。无法监测浅雪区信息等问题。另外影响地表微波亮温的因素很多,这些都在一定程度上影响了反演结果的精确度。主动微波遥感仪如合成孔径雷达、微波散射计等利用积雪与其它地物的后向散射系数的不同来识别积雪,但也同样存在分辨率低等问题。最后探讨了卫星反演积雪信息中仍然存在的问题和进一步发展的方向。     

Glacial termination: sensitivity to orbital and CO2 forcing in a coupled climate system model

 To study glacial termination and related feedback mechanisms, a continental ice dynamics model is globally and asynchronously coupled to a physical climate (atmosphere-ocean-sea ice) model. The model performs well under present-day, 11 kaBP (thousand years before present) and 21 kaBP perpetual forcing. To address the ice-sheet response under the effects of both perpetual orbital and CO₂ forcing, sensitivity experiments are conducted with two different orbital configurations (11 kaBP and 21 kaBP) and two different atmospheric CO₂ concentrations (200 ppmv and 280 ppmv). This study reveals that, although both orbital and CO₂ forcing have an impact on ice-sheet maintenance and deglacial processes, and although neither acting alone is sufficient to lead to complete deglaciation, orbital forcing seems to be more important. The CO₂ forcing has a large impact on climate, not uniformly or zonally over the globe, but concentrated over the continents adjacent to the North Atlantic. The effect of increased CO₂ (from 200 ppmv to 280 ppmv) on surface air temperature has its peak there in winter associated with a reduction in sea-ice extent in the northern North Atlantic. These changes are accompanied by an enhancement in the intensity of the meridional overturning and poleward ocean heat transport in the North Atlantic. On the other hand, the effect of orbital forcing (from 21 kaBP to 11 kaBP) has its peak in summer. Since the summer temperature, rather than winter temperature, is found to be dominant for the ice-sheet mass balance, orbital forcing has a larger effect than CO₂ forcing in deglaciation. Warm winter sea surface temperature arising from increased CO₂ during the deglaciation contributes to ice-sheet nourishment (negative feedback for ice-sheet retreat) through slightly enhanced precipitation. However, the precipitation effect is totally overwhelmed by the temperature effect. Our results suggest that the last deglaciation was initiated through increasing summer insolation with CO₂ providing a powerful feedback. Received: 22 February 2000 / Accepted: 17 September 2000     

Annual CO2 Flux in Dry and Moist Arctic Tundra: Field Responses to Increases in Summer Temperatures and Winter Snow Depth

We examined the annual exchange of CO₂ between the atmosphere and moist tussock and dry heath tundra ecosystems (which together account for over one-third of the low arctic land area) under ambient field conditions and under increased winter snow deposition, increased summer temperatures, or both. Our results indicate that these two arctic tundra ecosystems were net annual sources of CO₂ to the atmosphere from September 1994 to September 1996 under ambient weather conditions and under our three climate change scenarios. Carbon was lost from these ecosystems in both winter and summer, although the majority of CO₂ evolution took place during the short summer. Our results indicate that (1) warmer summer temperatures will increase annual CO₂ efflux from both moist and dry tundra ecosystems by 45–55% compared to current ambient temperatures; (2) deeper winter snow cover will increase winter CO₂ efflux in both moist and dry tundra ecosystems, but will decrease net summer CO₂ efflux; and (3) deeper winter snow cover coupled with warmer summer temperatures will nearly double the annual amount of CO₂ emitted from moist tundra and will result in a 24% increase in the annual CO₂ efflux of dry tundra. If, as predicted, climate change alters both winter snow deposition and summer temperatures, then shifts in CO₂ exchange between the biosphere and atmosphere will likely not be uniform across the Arctic tundra landscape. Increased snow deposition in dry tundra is likely to have a larger effect on annual CO₂ flux than warmer summer temperatures alone or warmer temperatures coupled with increased winter snow depth. The combined effects of increased summer temperatures and winter snow deposition on annual CO₂ flux in moist tundra will be much larger than the effects of either climate change scenario alone.     

Implications of CO2 global warming on great lakes ice cover

Statistical ice cover models were used to project daily mean basin ice cover and annual ice cover duration for Lakes Superior and Erie. Models were applied to a 1951–80 base period and to three 30-year steady double carbon dioxide (2 × CO₂) scenarios produced by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), the Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS), and the Oregon State University (OSU) general circulation models. Ice cover estimates were made for the West, Central, and East Basins of Lake Erie and for the West, East, and Whitefish Bay Basins of Lake Superior. Average ice cover duration for the 1951– 80 base period ranged from 13 to 16 weeks for individual lake basins. Reductions in average ice cover duration under the three 2 × CO₂ scenarios for individual lake basins ranged from 5 to 12 weeks for the OSU scenario, 8 to 13 weeks for the GISS scenario, and 11 to 13 weeks for GFDL scenario. Winters without ice formation become common for Lake Superior under the GFDL scenario and under all three 2 × CO₂ scenarios for the Central and East Basins of Lake Erie. During an average 2 × CO₂ winter, ice cover would be limited to the shallow areas of Lakes Erie and Superior. Because of uncertainties in the ice cover models, the results given here represent only a first approximation and are likely to represent an upper limit of the extent and duration of ice cover under the climate change projected by the three 2 × CO₂scenarios. Notwithstanding these limitations, ice cover projected by the 2 × CO₂ scenarios provides a preliminary assessment of the potential sensitivity of the Great Lakes ice cover to global warming. Potential environmental and socioeconomic impacts of a 2 × CO₂ warming include year-round navigation, change in abundance of some fish species in the Great Lakes, discontinuation or reduction of winter recreational activities, and an increase in winter lake evaporation.     

Sensitivity of glaciation to initial snow cover,CO2, snow albedo,and oceanic roughness in the NCAR CCM

We present results from numerical experiments made with a GCM, the NCAR CCM1, that were designed to estimate the annual balance between snow-fall accumulation and ablation for geographically important land regions for a variety of conditions. We also attempt to assess the reliability of these results by investigating model sensitivity to changes in prescribed physical parameters. Experiments were run with an initial imposition of 1 m of (midwinter) snowcover over all northern hemisphere land points. Over Alaska, western Canada, Siberia, and the Tibetan Plateau the model tended to retain this snow cover through the summer and in some cases increase its depth as well. We define these regions as glaciation sensitive and note some correspondence between them and source regions for the Pleistocene ice sheets. An experiment with greatly reduced CO₂ (100 ppm) showed a tendency towards spontaneous glaciation, i.e., the model remained snow-covered throughout the summer over the same geographic regions noted above. With 200 ppm CO₂ (roughly equal to values at the last glacial maximum), snow cover over these regions did not quite survive the summer on a consistent basis. Combining 200 ppm CO₂ and 1 m of initial northern hemisphere snow cover yielded glaciation-sensitive conditions, agreeing remarkably well with locations undergoing glaciation during the Pleistocene. To assess the reliability of these results, we have determined minimal model uncertainty by varying two of the empirical coefficients in the model within physically plausible ranges. In one case surface roughness of all ocean gridpoints was reduced by an order of magnitude, leading to local 10% reductions in precipitation (snowfall), a change hard to distinguish from inherent model variability. In the other case, the fraction of a land grid square assumed to be occupied by snow cover for albedo purposes was varied from one-half to unity. Large changes occurred in the degree of summer melting, and in some cases the sign of the net balance changed as fractional snow cover was changed. We conclude that the model may be able to reveal regions sensitive to glaciation, but that it cannot yield a reliable quantitative computation of the magnitude of the net snow accumulation that can be implicitly or explicitly integrated through time.This paper was presented at the International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 11–15 September 1989 under the auspices of the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is Dr. L. Dilmenil     

A comparison of a GCM response to historical anthropogenic land cover change and model sensitivity to uncertainty in present-day land cover representations

This study assesses the sensitivity of the fully coupled NCAR-DOE PCM to three different representations of present-day land cover, based on IPCC SRES land cover information. We conclude that there is significant model sensitivity to current land cover characterization, with an observed average global temperature range of 0.21 K between the simulations. Much larger contrasts (up to 5 K) are found on the regional scale; however, these changes are largely offsetting on the global scale. These results show that significant biases can be introduced when outside data sources are used to conduct anthropogenic land cover change experiments in GCMs that have been calibrated to their own representation of present-day land cover. We conclude that hybrid systems that combine the natural vegetation from the native GCM datasets combined with human land cover information from other sources are best for simulating such impacts. We also performed a prehuman simulation, which had a 0.39 K ~higher average global temperature and, perhaps of greater importance, temperature changes regionally of about 2 K. In this study, the larger regional changes coincide with large-scale agricultural areas. The initial cooling from energy balance changes appear to create feedbacks that intensify mid-latitude circulation features and weaken the summer monsoon circulation over Asia, leading to further cooling. From these results, we conclude that land cover change plays a significant role in anthropogenically forced climate change. Because these changes coincide with regions of the highest human population this climate impact could have a disproportionate impact on human systems. Therefore, it is important that land cover change be included in past and future climate change simulations.     

CO2 climate sensitivity and snow-sea-ice albedo parameterization in an atmospheric GCM coupled to a mixed-layer ocean model

The snow-sea-ice albedo parameterization in an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM), coupled to a simple mixed-layer ocean and run with an annual cycle of solar forcing, is altered from a version of the same model described by Washington and Meehl (1984). The model with the revised formulation is run to equilibrium for 1 × CO₂ and 2 × CO₂ experiments. The 1 ×CO₂ (control) simulation produces a global mean climate about 1° warmer than the original version, and sea-ice extent is reduced. The model with the altered parameterization displays heightened sensitivity in the global means, but the geographical patterns of climate change due to increased carbon dioxide (CO₂) are qualitatively similar. The magnitude of the climate change is affected, not only in areas directly influenced by snow and ice changes but also in other regions of the globe, including the tropics where sea-surface temperature, evaporation, and precipitation over the oceans are greater. With the less-sensitive formulation, the global mean surface air temperature increase is 3.5 °C, and the increase of global mean precipitation is 7.12%. The revised formulation produces a globally averaged surface air temperature increase of 4.04 °C and a precipitation increase of 7.25%, as well as greater warming of the upper tropical troposphere. Sensitivity of surface hydrology is qualitatively similar between the two cases with the larger-magnitude changes in the revised snow and ice-albedo scheme experiment. Variability of surface air temperature in the model is comparable to observations in most areas except at high latitudes during winter. In those regions, temporal variation of the sea-ice margin and fluctuations of snow cover dependent on the snow-ice-albedo formulation contribute to larger-than-observed temperature variability. This study highlights an uncertainty associated with results from current climate GCMs that use highly parameterized snow-sea-ice albedo schemes with simple mixed-layer ocean models.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

卫星高光谱大气CO2探测精度验证研究进展

卫星高光谱大气CO₂遥感探测对全球气候变化研究意义重大,卫星CO₂反演产品的地基观测验证是获得产品精度评价、发现算法可适用范围和局限性的重要环节,因此地基高光谱CO₂的观测验证研究对提高卫星产品定量精度至关重要。本文综述了当前国际上大气CO₂探测卫星的研制进展,短波红外大气CO₂的反演方法进展,重点阐述了地基高光谱CO₂探测技术进展及其对卫星大气CO₂的定量探测精度验证方法和技术研究进展,并对该研究领域未来的发展提出展望。     

Changes in Snow Mass Balance in the Canadian Rocky Mountains Caused by CO2 Rise: Regional Atmosphere Model Results

Abstract

This study investigates snow mass balance in the Canadian Rockies under a relatively conservative Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenario for the twenty-first century through the use of regional atmosphere modelling. We dynamically downscale results from five 10-year subsets of general circulation model integrations to 6?km resolution to produce a physically consistent representation of the atmosphere at high elevations. Regional model results make evident greater warming with increasing elevation at low to mid-levels of the atmosphere, and a simple thermodynamic explanation of this process is presented. Simulated increases in atmospheric water vapour result in increases in cloud cover and precipitation at high elevations, which temporarily offset the effects of rising temperatures, but by 2100 all model elevations experience reductions in snow mass balance. A simple energy balance model produces reasonable estimates of changes in the elevation of equilibrium net snow accumulation, with increases between 185 and 197?m under an approximate 1.5°C rise in surface temperatures by 2100.     

The Relative Impact of Regional Scale Land Cover Change and Increasing CO2 over China

A series of 17-yr equilibrium simulations using the NCAR CCM3 (T42 resolution) were performed to investigate the regional scale impacts of land cover change and increasing CO2 over China. Simulations with natural and current land cover at CO2 levels of 280,355, 430, and 505 ppmv were conducted. Results show statistically significant changes in major climate fields (e.g. temperature and surface wind speed) on a 15-yr average following land cover change. We also found increases in the maximum temperature and in the diurnal temperature range due to land cover change. Increases in CO2 affect both the maximum and minimum temperature so that changes in the diurnal range are small. Both land cover change and CO2 change also impact the frequency distribution of precipitation with increasing CO2 tending to lead to more intense precipitation and land cover change leading to less intense precipitation-indeed, the impact of land cover change typically had the opposite effect versus the impacts of CO2. Our results provide support for the inclusion of future land cover change scenarios in long-term transitory climate inodelling experiments of the 21st Century. Our results also support the inclusion of land surface models that can represent future land cover changes resulting from an ecological response to natural climate variability or increasing CO2. Overall, we show that land cover change can have a significant impact on the regional scale climate of China, and that regionally, this impact is of a similar magnitude to increases in CO2 of up to about 430 ppmv. This means that that the impact of land cover change must be accounted for in detection and attribution studies over China.     

Snow cover as an indicator of cumulative man-made pollution in the area of influence of cities and roads

It is known that, as a section of land hydrology, hydrography studies concrete water bodies characterizing both qualitatively and quantitatively their location, regime, and local conditions. Thus, estimating the size of contaminated land within the river systems, lake and ocean basins is also a task of hydrography. The studies were conducted in the period from 1972 to 2012.     

Climate sensitivity due to increased CO2: experiments with a coupled atmosphere and ocean general circulation model

A version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research community climate model — a global, spectral (R15) general circulation model — is coupled to a coarse-grid (5° latitude-] longitude, four-layer) ocean general circulation model to study the response of the climate system to increases of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂). Three simulations are run: one with an instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO₂ (from 330 to 660 ppm), another with the CO₂ concentration starting at 330 ppm and increasing linearly at a rate of 1% per year, and a third with CO₂ held constant at 330 pm. Results at the end of 30 years of simulation indicate a globally averaged surface air temperature increase of 1.6° C for the instantaneous doubling case and 0.7°C for the transient forcing case. Inherent characteristics of the coarse-grid ocean model flow sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropics and higher-than-observed SSTs and reduced sea-ice extent at higher latitudes] produce lower sensitivity in this model after 30 years than in earlier simulations with the same atmosphere coupled to a 50-m, slab-ocean mixed layer. Within the limitations of the simulated meridional overturning, the thermohaline circulation weakens in the coupled model with doubled CO₂ as the high-latitude ocean-surface layer warms and freshens and westerly wind stress is decreased. In the transient forcing case with slowly increasing CO₂ (30% increase after 30 years), the zonal mean warming of the ocean is most evident in the surface layer near 30°–50° S. Geographical plots of surface air temperature change in the transient case show patterns of regional climate anomalies that differ from those in the instantaneous CO₂ doubling case, particularly in the North Atlantic and northern European regions. This suggests that differences in CO₂ forcing in the climate system are important in CO₂ response in regard to time-dependent climate anomaly regimes. This confirms earlier studies with simple climate models that instantaneous CO₂ doubling simulations may not be analogous in all respects to simulations with slowly increasing CO₂.A portion of this study is supported by the US Department of Energy as part of its Carbon Dioxide Research Program     

Constraints on the temperature sensitivity of global soil respiration from the observed interannual variability in atmospheric CO2

Carbon cycle feedbacks have been shown to be very important in predicting climate change over the next century. The response of the terrestrial carbon cycle to climate change depends on the competition between increased respiration due to warmer temperatures and increased uptake due to elevated CO₂levels. Whether the terrestrial carbon cycle remains a sink for anthropogenic carbon, or switches to become a source, depends particularly on the response of soil respiration to temperature. Here we use observed global atmospheric CO₂concentration to constrain the behaviour of soil respiration in a coupled climate–carbon cycle GCM.     

Eddy-covariance CO2 flux measurements using open- and closed-path CO2 analysers: Corrections for analyser water vapour sensitivity and damping of fluctuations in air sampling tubes

Methods of calibrating infrared CO₂ analysers for sensitivity to CO₂ and water vapour are described. Equations to correct eddy covariance CO₂ flux measurements are presented for: (i) analyser cross-sensitivity to water vapour and the effects of density fluctuations arising from atmospheric fluxes of water vapour and sensible heat, (ii) flux losses caused by signal processing and limited instrument frequency response for open- and closed-path CO₂ analysers, and (iii) flux losses resulting from damping of concentration fluctuations in a tube used to sample air for closed-path CO₂ analysers. Examples of flux corrections required for typical instruments are presented.     

塔城盆地暴雪预报方法和白灾的防御对策

从1970--1997年28a的资料中筛选出30个个例为对象,对其从高、中、低、地面4个层次形势场进行对比和分类,对产生暴雪的物理机制进行诊断分析,采用统计预报中的多因子综合相关预报方法筛选预报因子,用集合预报方法集成预报结果。据此提出畜牧业生产防御暴雪的对策。     

Siberian CO2 efflux in winter as a CO2 source and cause of seasonality in atmospheric CO2

Over three years, we found a consistent CO₂ efflux from forest tundra of the Russian North throughout the year, including a large (89 g C m^–2 yr^–1) efflux during winter. Our results provide one explanation for the observations that the highest atmospheric CO₂ concentration and greatest seasonal amplitude occur at high latitudes rather than over the mid-latitudes, where fossil fuel sources are large, and where high summer productivity offset by winter respiration should give large seasonal oscillations in atmospheric CO₂. Winter respiration probably contributed substantially to the boreal winter CO₂ efflux. Respiration is an exothermic process that produces enough heat to warm soils and promote further decomposition. We suggest that, as a result of this positive feedback, small changes in surface heat flux, associated with human activities in the North or with regional or global warming, could release large quantities of organic carbon that are presently stored in permafrost.     

乌鲁木齐南山中山带积雪特征分析

利用1971-2011年乌鲁木齐小渠子气象站资料,对南山中山带40 a来的积雪特征及变化特点进行了分析.结果表明:乌鲁木齐南山中山带平均稳定积雪期为144 d;近40 a来出现的最大积雪深度为57 cm,年最大积雪深度出现在3月下旬的频率最大,平均积雪深度以2月最厚.自20世纪80年代以来出现稳定积雪初日推迟、终日提前、稳定积雪期缩短的趋势.近40 a来最大积雪深度递增趋势主要是由于冬季降水量增加和降雪强度增强所造成;而随着气温的逐渐变暖则造成稳定积雪初日的推迟和终日提前.