The occurrence of nocturnal low‐level jets In new England and the Canadian maritimes

Abstract

Detailed low‐level wind data collected in southern New Brunswick each summer since 1973 have revealed the existence of a significant low‐level jet during the evening on many occasions. The major contributing factor is considered to be an opposing thermal wind generated by the land/sea surface temperature difference when the low‐level airflow parallels the coastline. The maximum wind is characteristically located between 300 and 500 m above msl. Intensities have been found as great as 15 m s^‐1 in excess of the 1000‐m wind speed. A detailed study is presented for a well‐documented case on 8 July 1975, using hourly information from three stations near Fredericton, N.B., and Doppler measurements of the drift of a specially equipped research aircraft. There is clear evidence of an undulation in the altitude of the “nose” of the low‐level jet and of a progressive increase in intensity from early evening until midnight.     

Assimilation of ERS‐2 scatterometer winds using the Canadian 3D‐var

Abstract

The goal of this study is to evaluate the impact of incorporating the marine surface winds retrieved from the ERS‐2 scatterometer in the Canadian three‐dimensional variational analysis system, (3D‐var). The aspects of the 3D‐var most relevant to the assimilation of surface ‐wind observations and a general method for resolving the directional ambiguity of the retrieved scatterometer ‐winds are first described. A comparison ‐with 6‐h forecasted winds is then made to demonstrate that these data are of high quality, but exhibit a speed bias that can be removed by increasing their amplitudes by about 5%. The analysis increment from a single scatterometer wind observation is calculated to illustrate the response of the 3D‐var to surface wind observations. As a consequence of the forecast error covariance model, the assimilation of surface wind observations produces meteorologically consistent increments for both the rotational and divergent wind components and the mass field. The results from a series of cross‐validation experiments using ship‐based wind data demonstrate a positive impact of assimilating scatterometer winds and the effectiveness of a simple method for estimating and removing the speed bias. The impact of assimilating scatterometer data within a short assimilation cycle is also evaluated. Overall, the results show that including scatterometer data in the analysis decreases the 6‐h forecast error of surface wind by 13%. Over the northern extra‐tropics the improvement is only 4% and for the southern extra‐tropics it is 16%. Results from a series of two‐day forecasts produced using the analyses from the assimilation cycles with and without retrieved scatterometer winds included are also presented. Using radiosonde observations at 850 hPa, 500 hPa, 250 hPa and 100 hPafor verification, the impact on the forecasts is nearly neutral in the northern hemisphere and the tropics. Conversely, a significant positive impact is found on both wind and mass fields in the southern hemisphere over the entire two‐day forecast.     

The application of non‐linear normal mode initialization to an operational forecast model

Abstract

The non‐linear normal mode initialization technique used in shallow water equation models by Baer (1977) and Machenhauer (1977) is now applied to a full baroclinic primitive equations forecast model. The initialization procedure is shown to be capable of completely removing high frequency oscillations from model integrations, even in the presence of topography. The procedure also produces a consistent and physically realistic initial vertical motion field.     

The method of the medium-range forecast of air temperature in the area of the “Baikonur” cosmodrome

The statistical model of the forecast (complex postprocessing) of surface air temperature with the lead time up to eight days is constructed using the results of the integration of hydrodynamic atmospheric models. The model is adapted to the area of the “Baikonur” using the method of central typing that allows increasing the accuracy of operational forecasts. The analysis of climate characteristics needed for constructing the proper statistical model for this area is given using both observational data for recent 25 years and the data of WMO (from the All-Russian Research Institute of Hydro-meteorological Information-World Data Center). Computed are the estimates of the accuracy of operational forecasts.     

The Bise—Climatology of a regional wind north of the Alps

Summary The Bise is one of several regional winds in the Alpine area occuring in connection with postfrontal pressure rise and cold air advection. Like the Mistral, the Bise is also induced by a synoptiscale 850hPa pressure gradient (dp/dn _(NESW)1 hPa/100 km) and strongly determined by orographic effects.Apart from the classical postfrontal Bise in Spring, a deep Bise with strong cold air advection and sometimes rain appears during winter. A rough survey of the factors determining the wind profile during Bise, which is quite often characterized by a low-level jet structure, shows that dynamical effects induced by the topography like flow splitting, channeling and the formation of countercurrents may be very important.With 11 Figures     

SPOM: A regional model of the sub‐polar north Atlantic

Abstract

A regional model of the sub‐polar North Atlantic has been developed for use in process and variability studies of this important high‐latitude area. Open boundary conditions handle connections with the rest of the Atlantic Ocean at 38°N, while buffer zones are used in the northern boundary regions. Extensive testing and experimentation has led to a model which can reproduce major elements of the hydrography and circulation in the region, although limitations exist. A key model feature is the inclusion of a finite volume partial cell topographic representation that significantly improves the structure of the underlying bottom topography. Improvements include a tighter and sharper gyre structure, increased transports, sub‐polar mode water formation sites linked to the topographic slope along the outside of the gyre and a more reasonable representation of Labrador Sea water properties and dispersal pathways. The choice of inflow conditions for the open southern boundary affects the deep western boundary current, as well as the representation of Mediterranean Water, which has a significant effect on Labrador Sea water in the eastern basin.     

The climatology of the Canadian Climate Centre general circulation model as obtained from a five‐year simulation

Abstract

The climatology of the Canadian Climate Centre atmospheric general circulation model is presented and compared with the observed climatology of the atmosphere. The model climatology is obtained from a simulation over five annual cycles and the results are presented in terms of averages for the four seasons.

The climatology of the model is discussed in terms of zonally and time averaged values of the primary atmospheric variables as well as in terms of the spatial distributions of the important surface parameters and of the rotational and divergent components of the tropospheric flow. Some measure of model variability is also presented.

The model is generally quite successful in reproducing the mean observed climatology of the atmosphere.     

Influences of tropical–extratropical interaction on the multidecadal AMOC variability in the NCEP climate forecast system

We have examined the mechanisms of a multidecadal oscillation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in a 335-year simulation of the Climate Forecast System (CFS), the climate prediction model developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Both the mean and seasonal cycle of the AMOC in the CFS are generally consistent with observation-based estimates with a maximum northward volume transport of 16?Sv (10⁶?m³/s) near 35°N at 1.2?km. The annual mean AMOC shows an intermittent quasi 30-year oscillation. Its dominant structure includes a deep anomalous overturning cell (referred to as the anomalous AMOC) with amplitude of 0.6?Sv near 35°N and an anomalous subtropical cell (STC) of shallow overturning spanning across the equator. The mechanism for the oscillation includes a positive feedback between the anomalous AMOC and surface wind stress anomalies in mid-latitudes and a negative feedback between the anomalous STC and AMOC. A strong AMOC is associated with warm sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) centered near 45°N, which generates an anticyclonic easterly surface wind anomaly. This anticyclonic wind anomaly enhances the regional downwelling and reinforces the anomalous AMOC. In the mean time, a wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback extends the warm SSTA to the tropics and induces a cyclonic wind stress anomaly there, which drives a tropical upwelling and weakens the STC north of the equator. The STC anomaly, in turn, drives a cold upper ocean heat content anomaly (HCA) in the northern tropical Atlantic and weakens the meridional heat transport from the tropics to the mid-latitude through an anomalous southward western boundary current. The anomalous STC transports cold HCA from the subtropics to the mid-latitudes, weakening the mid-latitude deep overturning.     

Mixed layer heat budget of the El Niño in NCEP climate forecast system

The mechanisms controlling the El Niño have been studied by analyzing mixed layer heat budget of daily outputs from a free coupled simulation with the Climate Forecast System (CFS). The CFS is operational at National Centers for Environmental Prediction, and is used by Climate Prediction Center for seasonal-to-interannual prediction, particularly for the prediction of the El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific. Our analysis shows that the development and decay of El Niño can be attributed to ocean advection in which all three components contribute. Temperature advection associated with anomalous zonal current and mean vertical upwelling contributes to the El Niño during its entire evolutionary cycle in accordance with many observational, theoretical, and modeling studies. The impact of anomalous vertical current is found to be comparable to that of mean upwelling. Temperature advection associated with mean (anomalous) meridional current in the CFS also contributes to the El Niño cycle due to strong meridional gradient of anomalous (mean) temperature. The surface heat flux, non-linearity of temperature advection, and eddies associated with tropical instabilities waves (TIW) have the tendency to damp the El Niño. Possible degradation in the analysis and closure of the heat budget based on the monthly mean (instead of daily) data is also quantified.     

The distribution of the total ozone values in the end of the polar winter—the key to the forecast of extreme seasons?

The possibility to use the observations of the total ozone values in the atmosphere (TO) in the end of polar winters as the indicator of the cold accumulation in the troposphere and the type of its circulation is considered. The influence of TO over polar regions on the approach of early and late circulation reconstructions in the stratosphere and the following weather type in spring-summer season is concluded.     

Evaluating regional atmospheric water vapour estimates derived from GPS and short‐range forecasts of the Canadian Global Environmental Multiscale model in southern Alberta

Abstract

Integrated atmospheric moisture has been derived from a network of Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers established in southern Alberta. GPS receivers and post‐processing techniques provide the ability to estimate integrated precipitable water vapour (PWV) at temporal and spatial scales not usually available using conventional observational techniques and without costly expendables. GPS‐derived PWV was evaluated during the Alberta GPS Atmospheric Moisture Evaluation (A‐GAME) using nearby radiosonde observations from the Airdrie, Olds‐Didsbury and Sundre airports during field campaigns in the summers of 2003 and 2004. For the 2004 A‐GAME period, the regional (15 km) Global Environmental Multiscale model (GEM)‐modelled PWV was compared to the GPS derived PWV using a distance weighting approach. GEM model performance was assessed with regards to prognosis time (from 0 to 9 hours), grid cell elevation, location and the presence of storms in the study region. The results show that there is good agreement between radiosonde‐derived PWV and PWV derived from nearby GPS sites with correlations (r²) ranging from 0.76 to 0.84; the GPS‐derived PWV showed a small dry bias averaging 0.6 mm. When compared to GPS‐derived PWV, GEM model performance was found to be favourable out to the hour‐3 prognosis with an overall correlation (r²) of 0.63. Performance decreased with increasing prognosis time and as a result of the presence of storm activity in the study region but did not decrease with increasing grid cell elevation.     

Tropospheric low‐level temperature inversions in the Canadian Arctic

Abstract

Climatological characteristics of the low‐level tropospheric temperature inversion in the Canadian Arctic are examined using 10–40 year records of upper‐air meteorological data. Inversions at the northern sites are primarily surface‐based in winter, and elevated from mid‐spring through summer. At the southern sites, a bimodal pattern is observed with surface‐based inversions occurring during late summer, as well as during winter. From comparisons of our results with other published climatologies, it appears that this bimodal pattern reflects interactions between short‐ and long‐wave radiation, synoptic activity and snowmelt. Maxima in inversion depth and temperature difference across the inversion layer occur in February and March; minima occur in August and September. The annual progression of inversion characteristics closely follows the annual pattern of clear‐sky percentages, reflecting the controlling influence of cloud and clear‐sky radiative forcings on the inversion layer.     

Multi‐year sea‐ice conditions in the western Canadian arctic archipelago region of the northwest passage: 1968–2006

Abstract

Numerous studies have reported decreases in Arctic sea‐ice cover over the past several decades and General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations continue to predict future decreases. These decreases — particularly in thick perennial or multi‐year ice (MYI) — have led to considerable speculation about a more accessible Northwest Passage (NWP) as a transit route through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA). The Canadian Ice Service Digital Archive (CISDA) is used to investigate dynamic import/export and in situ growth of MYI within the western CAA regions of the NWP from 1968 to 2006. This analysis finds that MYI conditions in the western CAA regions of the NWP have remained relatively stable because the M'Clintock Channel and Franklin regions continuously operate as a drain‐trap mechanism for MYI. Results also show that in addition to the Queen Elizabeth Islands (QEI) region, the Western Parry Channel and the M'Clintock Channel are also regions where a considerable amount of MYI forms in situ and combined with dynamic imports contributes to heavy MYI conditions. There is also evidence to suggest that more frequent dynamic import of MYI appears to have occurred since‐1999 compared to the formation of more MYI in situ before 1999. As a result, the drain‐trap mechanism that has historically maintained heavy MYI conditions in the NWP is perhaps operating faster now than it was in the past. Based on the 38‐year MYI record examined in this study, it is likely that the mechanisms operating within the western CAA regions of the NWP can facilitate the continued presence of MYI for quite some time.     

Comment on “application of the Canadian regional climate model to the Laurentian Great Lakes region: Implementation of a lake model”

Abstract

A recently published slab model formulation of lake thermodynamics (Goyette et al., 2000), including an empirical factor to adjust the incoming heat flux so that the modelled lake surface temperature agrees with observed climatology, leads to a distinct lack of energy conservation. The empirical adjustment conceptually represents an exchange of heat between the mixed‐layer water (the slab that is explicitly simulated in the model) and deeper layers of water. It ensures a realistic temporal progression of temperature in the mixed layer, but the thermodynamic balance of the deeper water is not considered. When the deeper water is considered, it is found that the empirical adjustment accounts for the entire heat input to the deeper water, and on an annual mean basis, it is considerably unbalanced. This reveals a flaw in this model concept and, although not entirely invalidating the model, it needs to be included as a caveat in its use.     

The energy of near‐surface internal waves in the strait of Georgia

An estimate of the energy content of near‐surface internal waves in the Strait of Georgia is obtained from a combination of aerial photographs and in‐situ measurements. The role of these waves in the tidal energy budget and in the mixing processes in the Strait is discussed.     

The cross‐channel flow at the entrance of Lancaster Sound

Abstract

A westward current flows along the northern side of Lancaster Sound and an eastward current flows along the southern side. A cross‐channel flow is commonly observed to link them near the eastern entrance of Lancaster Sound; this flow is modelled assuming inviscid flow and conservation of potential vorticity. It is shown that the westward decrease in depth is sufficient to cause a cross‐channel flow that couples the inflow to the outflow. The modelled cross‐channel flow takes place at a distance inside the entrance that is less than that observed for the surface current. Obviously stratification reduces the coupling of the surface current to the bathymetry. A more realistic result is obtained with the barotropic model if the bottom slope is halved.

An inviscid mean barotropic flow out of the channel is also modelled and found to be concentrated on the southern bank in order to conserve potential vorticity. It seems that barotropic instability and friction would limit the narrowing of the flow.     

Surface‐absorbed and top‐of‐atmosphere radiation fluxes for the Mackenzie River basin from satellite observations and a regional climate model and an evaluation of the model

Abstract

Both the earth‐reflected shortwave and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) fluxes at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) as well as surface‐absorbed solar fluxes from Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) simulations of the Mackenzie River Basin for the period March 2000 to September 2003 are compared with the radiation fluxes deduced from satellite observations. The differences between the model and satellite solar fluxes at the TOA and at the surface, which are used in this paper to evaluate the CRCM performance, have opposite biases under clear skies and overcast conditions, suggesting that the surface albedo is underestimated while cloud albedo is overestimated. The slightly larger differences between the model and satellite fluxes at the surface compared to those at the TOA indicate the existence of a small positive atmospheric absorption bias in the model. The persistent overestimation of TOA reflected solar fluxes and underestimation of the surface‐absorbed solar fluxes by the CRCM under all sky conditions are consistent with the overestimation of cloud fraction by the CRCM. This results in a larger shortwave cloud radiative forcing (CRF) both at the TOA and at the surface in the CRCM simulation. The OLR from the CRCM agrees well with the satellite observations except for persistent negative biases during the winter months under all sky conditions. Under clear skies, the OLR is slightly underestimated by the CRCM during the winter months and overestimated in the other months. Under overcast conditions the OLR is underestimated by the CRCM, suggesting an underestimation of cloud‐top temperature by the CRCM. There is an improvement in differences between model and satellite fluxes compared to previously reported results largely because of changes to the treatment of the surface in the model.     

Study of on‐site versus off‐site forecasts for Canadian Forces Base Summerside

Abstract

On‐site and off‐site forecasts for the CFB Summerside aerodrome, written coincidentally over a six‐week period, are verified using the Ranked Probability Score and compared by means of a two‐tailed test of paired differences. The results show that, at a 10% level of significance, forecasts made on‐site are significantly better than forecasts made off‐site for at least four hours into the forecast period. When compared with persistence, both forecast offices were superior. At no time did the persistence forecasts score significantly better than those issued by a meteorologist. When compared with climatology, on‐site forecasts were significantly better for the first nine hours, while off‐site forecasts were significantly better for the first ten hours.     

Atmospheric moisture budget estimates of regional evapotranspiration from RES‐91

Abstract

Diurnal changes in the local atmospheric moisture budget over the Canadian Prairies are computed using sequential radiosonde soundings from the 1991 Regional Evaporation Study (RES‐91). Previous attempts to estimate evapotranspiration with radiosonde data have used either similarity theory or a moisture budget, but have been confined to the boundary layer in either case. These studies, as well as semi‐empiric operational techniques which use surface‐based data, exclude the effects of moisture advection and energy exchanges between the boundary layer and the free atmosphere, assuming negligible effects on evapotranspiration. The moisture budget method adopted here includes horizontal advection explicitly, and treats vertical fluxes implicitly through a total tropospheric moisture budget.

Comparison of the evapotranspiration estimates with those of other techniques are positive only when results are averaged over several days to weeks. While the advection estimates are a major source of error for the “daily” estimates in this particular study, it is shown that neither advection nor moisture flux through the boundary layer can be ignored in estimating daily evapotranspiration, regardless of the technique used. The results also suggest that evapotranspiration is more variable on a daily basis than other techniques have indicated. With an improved synoptic database now available for advection estimates, the moisture budget technique may provide an excellent ground‐truth method for fine‐tuning techniques for remote sensing of evapotranspiration, and could lead to improved parametrization schemes for both NWP models and GCMs.