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1.
《Climate Policy》2001,1(1):125-133
Energy sector emissions from Russia have declined by about 33% from 1990 levels. We estimate that some 60–70% of the reduction is due to economic decline, and about 8–12% of it is due to reforms in the energy sector; the remainder being due to the wider use of natural gas and structural changes in the economy. Vigorous institutional and technological measures to promote energy efficiency could lead to savings of over 100 million t.c.e. per year by 2010, and keep CO2 emissions fairly close to current levels over the decade. In our view, international emissions trading should not lead to global emissions growth, but should facilitate the best energy saving and efficiency. Consequently, we propose that the available assigned amount should be divided into two components. That part arising from ‘type 1’ reductions, produced by special projects and measures relating to GHG reduction taken since 1990, should be freely traded; whereas the remaining ‘type 2’ surplus, without a clear link to real emission reduction activity, should only be traded if the revenues are recycled into special projects resulting in emissions reduction equal to or more than the amount of emissions sold.  相似文献   

2.
Abstract

In this article we propose a careful analysis of the economic consequences of the Kyoto Protocol for Russia, taking into account the most recently available data and the latest developments in the trends regarding Russian economic recovery. We present a review of different GHG forecasts for Russia and develop a new forecast for uncertain GDP growth and changing elasticity of GHG emission per GDP. Since the rate of growth remains uncertain, elasticity could change over time, as well as the fuel mix. We apply the Monte-Carlo method to simulate these uncertainties and to produce a reasonable interval for CO2 emissions in 2010. The probability of Russia exceeding its Kyoto emissions budget is essentially zero. Further, we discuss the benefits for Russia from the Kyoto Protocol, and more generally from implementation of GHG mitigation policy. Ancillary benefits from Kyoto Protocol implementation will bring essential reductions in risk to human health. On the other hand, potential negative changes in the fuel mix and GDP structure, as well as a slowing of the innovation process, could exacerbate existing health problems. Alternatives to the Kyoto Protocol may bring much tougher commitments to Russia. We conclude that the Kyoto Protocol is the best possible deal for Russia. Therefore, Russia most will ratify it.  相似文献   

3.
《Climate Policy》2013,13(3):343-362
Abstract

This paper discusses Japan's quantitative Kyoto target in the context of the country's socio-economic and political background and its desire to express international leadership. Japan's initial negotiating target was developed as a compromise between domestic industrial considerations and its international ambitions, and was strengthened further under the pressures to achieve success at Kyoto.

The original projections relied heavily upon nuclear expansion that will not be realized. Though economic stagnation has helped emissions to decline from their mid-1990s peak, it has also reduced the attention devoted to climate change and the willingness to bear costs, and Japan's commitment remains daunting. Japanese bureaucrats and diplomats are called to work closer together and in an integrated manner in order to develop a new, more realistic policy package for achieving their target. This report analyses various scenarios for additional policies for Japan, including fuel switching, carbon taxation and emissions trading, and concludes that the introduction of gas in the context of energy market liberalization is a key possibility. It also considers the sink and the nuclear energy issues both of high importance for the country.  相似文献   

4.
Since April 1986, measurements of the CO2 concentration in the surface air have been conducted at the Meteorological Research Institure (MRI, 36°04 N, 140°07 E, 25 m above sea level) in Tsukuba, located 50 km northeast of Tokyo, Japan. The CO2 data measured over times between 11:00 Japan Standard Time (JST) and 16:00 JST (C N ) were considered to be representative of the air (within a few ppmv) in the planetary boundary layer. To evaluate the representative CO2 level on a spatial scale larger than that of the C N record, the CO2 data with hour-to-hour variation less than 1 ppmv were selected (C P ). Comparison of these data with those of Ryori (39°02 N, 141°50 E), a continental station operated by the Japan Meteorological Agency, indicates that the C P record provides a representative CO2 level in the air on spatial scales of at least a few hundred kilometers.The C N record allows an investigation of the internanual changes in photosynthesis/respiration against changes in climatological parameters. Within a small temperature anomaly (ca.±1 °C) respiration is sensitive to the temperature change, while photosynthesis is less sensitive. When the temperature anomaly is large, however, photosynthesis and respiration tend to be competitive.  相似文献   

5.
Slovenia is required to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to an average of 8% below the base year 1986 in the period 2008–2012, due to the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol in 2002. It was the first of the transition countries to implement a CO2 tax in 1997. At the beginning of 2005, Slovenia joined other EU Member States by implementing the Emissions Trading Scheme. In contrast with other new EU Member States, Slovenia will be a net buyer of allowances. Therefore future movements on the emissions market will play an important role in the compliance costs of achieving the Kyoto target. The main purpose of this article is to present the establishment and characteristics of the first national allocation plan (NAP1) and to describe the main elements of the second national allocation plan (NAP2) for Slovenia within the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, the expected movements on the emissions allowances market in Slovenia, the expected compliance cost of achieving the Kyoto target and to present the main characteristics and efficiency of the CO2 tax in Slovenia.  相似文献   

6.
Emissions of N2O, CH4, and CO2 from soils at two sites in the tropical savanna of central Venezuela were determined during the dry season in February 1987. Measured arithmetic mean fluxes of N2O, CH4, and CO2 from undisturbed soil plots to the atmosphere were 2.5×109, 4.3×1010, and 3.0×1013 molecules cm-2 s-1, respectively. These fluxes were not significantly affected by burning the grass layer. Emissions of N2O increased fourfold after simulated rainfall, suggesting that production of N2O in savanna soils during the rainy season may be an important source for atmospheric N2O. The CH4 flux measurements indicate that these savanna soils were not a sink, but a small source, for atmospheric methane. Fluxes of CO2 from savanna soils increased ninefold two hours after simulated rainfall, and remained three times higher than normal after 16 hours. More research is needed to clarify the significance of savannas in the global cycles of N2O, CH4, CO2, and other trace gases, especially during the rainy season.  相似文献   

7.
Abstract

The role of sinks in the clean development mechanism (CDM) has been a subject of controversy for several reasons; one being that temporary carbon storage in forests appeared to prevent any opportunity to use them as an option to reduce permanent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In Milan (December 2003), the Conference of the Parties (CoP) decided to address this problem by introducing two types of expiring units: temporary CERs (tCERs) and long-term CERs (lCERs). Countries committed to emission reductions may acquire these units to temporarily offset their emissions and thus to postpone permanent emission reductions. As further decided by the CoP, baseline emissions of GHGs and the enhancement of sinks outside the project boundary will not be accounted for in the calculation of tCERs or lCERs. The contribution of CDM-sink projects to GHG emissions abatement will therefore be greater than what will be credited to them. On the other hand, permanent GHG emissions that may result as a consequence of the implementation of sink project activities are treated as non-permanent. If these emissions are above avoided baseline emissions, CDM-sinks will result in net increases of GHG emissions into the atmosphere. After briefly reassessing the non-permanence problem, this article explains how tCERs and lCERs should be quantified according to Decision 19/CP.9 of CoP-9 and how calculations are implemented in the forthcoming software CO2 Land. Using a simple numerical example, it illustrates how the GHG accounting rule adopted at CoP-9 may result in net increases of GHG emissions. In the conclusion, a possible solution to this problem is proposed.  相似文献   

8.
The CO2 concentrations and fluxes over an urban forest site (Namsan) and an urban residential region (Boramae) in Seoul, Korea, during the non-growing season (2–4 March 2011), the growing season (10–12 June 2011), and the late-growing season (22–24 September 2011) were analyzed. The CO2 concentrations of two sites showed nearly the same diurnal variation, with a maximum value occurring during the night and a minimum value occurring during daytime, as well as the same seasonal variation, with a maximum value during the non-growing season (early spring) and a minimum value during the growing season (summer). The CO2 flux over the urban forest did not show any typical diurnal variation during the non-growing season, but did show diurnal variation with a small positive value during the night and a large negative value during daytime in the growing and late-growing seasons due to photosynthesis in the urban forest. The CO2 flux over the urban residential region showed a positive daily mean value for all periods, with large values during the non-growing season and small values during the growing season, and it also showed diurnal variation with two maxima at 0600–1000 LST and 1800–2400 LST, and two minima at 0300-0600 LST and 1100-1500 LST, and was strongly correlated with the use of liquefied natural gas for cooking and heating by surrounding houses.  相似文献   

9.
10.
利用静态箱法于2011年结实期和2012年开花期与结实期分别对不同人类活动(自由放牧和刈割)影响下的呼伦贝尔草甸草原及相应的封育草原的CH4通量和植物土壤系统呼吸作用排放的CO2通量进行野外定位观测研究。结果表明:呼伦贝尔草甸草原(放牧和刈割及其对应的封育样地)均表现为CH4的汇,3个观测时期汇强的变化范围为:-23.98±6.40~-95.96±28.57μg Cm-2 h-1。呼伦贝尔草甸草原CH4通量的日变化对温度的响应较为复杂。不同时期呼伦贝尔草甸草原的植物土壤系统呼吸速率的日变化存在差异,水分和温度的共同影响造成2012年结实期日均CO2排放量低于2011年结实期。放牧对呼伦贝尔草甸草原CH4吸收通量的日变化模式的影响较小,但在2011年结实期和2012年开花期促进了CH4日均通量(促进幅度12.05%~93.35%),2012年结实期放牧降低了CH4日均通量(降低幅度23.32%~30.43%);刈割降低CH4吸收日均通量11.55%~60.62%。呼伦贝尔草甸草原日均累计碳排放量中CH4所占比例为0.35%~2.62%,而放牧和刈割行为对呼伦贝尔草甸草原的日均累计碳排放的影响结果在不同物候期以及不同植被群落类型均有不同。  相似文献   

11.
《Climate Policy》2013,13(1):71-88
Abstract

Recent analyses continue to modify our understanding of terrestrial carbon sinks. The sinks are large and variable enough to account for much of the variability in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2. They are distributed throughout both northern mid-latitudes and the tropics. Identification of the factors influencing an observed sink is extremely difficult; methods for attribution are reviewed. Although various ecological mechanisms (e.g. CO2 fertilization, nitrogen deposition, climatic variability) have been shown experimentally to have short-term effects on physiological processes controlling the amount of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems, it is unclear which of these mechanisms has been most important in the past 10–100 years and which will be most important in the future. The decades-long supposition that CO2 fertilization has been a major driver of terrestrial carbon uptake is being challenged. A major portion of the sink in the northern mid-latitudes (although probably not in the tropics) is a result of recovery from past changes in land use and management. To the extent that these direct human actions explain most of the current (and future) sink, attribution and thus accounting become more tractable, but the continued functioning of the sink is limited and largely dependent on deliberate actions (e.g. afforestation, sustainable forest management and preservation).  相似文献   

12.
In this study, a long-range energy alternative planning (LEAP) model was built to evaluate the relative priority of three kinds of policies expected to be implemented for the energy-intensive manufacturing sectors (EIMS) in China to achieve CO2 mitigation and energy conservation targets. These policies encourage (1) the use of more electricity instead of coal; (2) the continuous improvement of energy efficiency; and (3) a shift to other less energy-demanding sectors. The results indicate that the policy of shifting economic activity from the EIMS to other sectors is most helpful for China to achieve its targets of mitigating CO2 emissions and conserving energy. Encouraging the EIMS to use more electricity can help China to achieve a higher proportion of non-fossil-fuel based energy in its overall primary energy consumption. No single policy will allow China to achieve all the targets, emphasizing the need for an integrated policy design that combines all types of policies.

Key policy insights

  • The policy of encouraging a shift to less energy intensive industries should receive the highest priority in aiming to peak China's energy-related CO2 emissions as early as possible, and lower overall CO2 emissions, coal consumption and primary energy consumption in the long run.

  • Encouraging a shift to electricity should go hand-in-hand with greater energy efficiency, otherwise such a policy cannot help China significantly reduce energy-related CO2 emissions.

  • Encouraging the EIMS to use more electricity should receive the highest priority in helping China achieve a higher proportion of non-fossil-fuel based energy in its overall primary energy consumption.

  相似文献   

13.
The original density corrections proposed by Webb et al. [Webb EK, Pearman GI, Leuning R (1980) Quart J Roy Meteorol Soc 106:85–100] for calculating the eddy fluxes of trace gases are shown to be correct for both steady and non-steady state, horizontally homogeneous flows. The revised theory replaces the original assumption of zero vertical flux of dry air with the requirement of no sources or sinks of dry air in the layer below the height of measurement.  相似文献   

14.
This paper provides a detailed analysis of the Tokyo Metropolitan Emissions Trading Scheme (Tokyo ETS), Japan’s first emissions trading scheme with mandatory cap initiated by the government of Tokyo. Unlike trading schemes in other countries, the Tokyo ETS covers indirect emissions from the commercial sector. It is well known that a variety of market barriers impede full realization of energy efficiency opportunities, especially in the commercial sector. Experiences with the Tokyo ETS should therefore provide important lessons for the design of climate change mitigation policies, especially when targeting the commercial sector. The emissions from covered entities have been drastically reduced from those at the scheme’s outset, with an average 14% reduction as of the end of the first commitment period of five years (2010–2014) compared with 2009 levels. This paper shows that the Tokyo ETS alone did not cause these reductions; there were other drivers. Among them, the energy savings triggered by the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011 were crucial. The contribution of credit trading, in contrast, was limited since most of the covered entities reduced emissions by themselves. Through an investigation of official reports, an assessment of the emissions data from the covered entities compared to those of uncovered entities and in-depth interviews with firms covered by the scheme, this paper confirms that the main drivers of emissions reductions by covered entities were separate from the ETS. In fact, the advisory aspect of the scheme seems to be much more important in encouraging energy-saving actions.

Key policy insights

  • Most of the observed emission reductions were not caused by the Tokyo ETS alone.

  • An advisory instrument was crucial to the effectiveness of the Tokyo ETS.

  • The experience of the Tokyo ETS suggests that making full use of the advantages of emissions trading is difficult in the case of the commercial sector.

  • Price signals have not provided a stimulus to climate change mitigation actions, which implies that establishing a cap to yield effective carbon prices poses a challenge.

  相似文献   

15.
简要讨论了目前CO2等温室气体的危害、钢铁工业CO2的排放现状及来源,并针对我国钢铁行业的发展状况,分析了温室气体CO2的捕集方法.  相似文献   

16.
Products and mechanisms of the reaction between the nitrate radical (NO3) and three of the most abundant reduced organic sulphur compounds in the atmosphere (CH3SCH3, CH3SH and CH3SSCH3), have been studied in a 480 L reaction chamber using in situ FT-IR and ion chromatography as analytical techniques. In the three reactions, methanesulphonic acid was found to be the most abundant sulphur containing product. In addition the stable products SO2, H2SO4, CH2O, and CH3ONO2 were identified and quantified and thionitric acid-S-methyl ester (CH3SNO2) was observed in the i.r. spectrum from all of the three reactions. Deuterated dimethylsulphide (CD3SCD3) showed an isotope effect on the reaction Deuterated dimethylsulphide (CD3SCD3) showed an isotope effect on the reaction rate constant (kH/kD) of 3.8±0.6, indicating that hydrogen abstraction is the first step in the NO3+CH3SCH3 reaction, probably after the formation of an inital adduct.Based on the products and intermediates identified, reaction mechanisms are proposed for the three reactions.  相似文献   

17.
反硝化过程是维系闭合氮循环所必需的氮素形态转化环节。土壤反硝化过程速率及产物比的直接测定是研究氮循环过程机理的基础,但却是一个难题。为解决此难题,德国卡尔斯鲁厄技术研究所与中国科学院大气物理研究所最近合作新建了一套通过氦环境培养-气体同步直接测定土壤反硝化气体--氮气(N2)、氧化亚氮(N2O)、一氧化氮(NO)和二氧化碳(CO2)排放的系统和与之配套的三阶段培养方法。为检验该新建系统和配套方法测定土壤反硝化过程的准确性和可靠性,以华北地区广泛分布的盐碱地农田土壤(采自山西运城)为研究对象开展实验室培养试验,在初始可溶性有机碳(DOC)供应比较充足约300 mgC kg–1干土(d.s.)的条件下,测试了不同初始土壤硝态氮含量水平(10、100 mgN kg–1d.s.左右,分别表示为10N和100N)的反硝化气体和CO2排放过程。结果显示:100N的反硝化速率(定义为N2、N2O 和NO 排放速率之和)显著高于10N 处理(统计检验显著水平p<0.01);两个处理的反硝化产物均以N2为主(质量比分别占77%和75%),产物的NO/N2O摩尔比分别为1.2和1.5,N2O/N2摩尔比均为0.19;土壤反硝化气体动态排放速率及相关指标的测定结果表明,培养土壤中消失的硝态氮被回收81%~87%,培养前后的氮平衡率达92%~95%。因此,该新建方法测定土壤反硝化速率和产物比的结果具有很好的可靠性,为定量研究土壤反硝化过程提供了有效的直接测定手段。研究中检测到的土壤反硝化产物NO/N2O摩尔比大于1,不同于以往用液体培养基纯培养反硝化细菌得出的NO/N2O摩尔比远小于1的结论。这意味着,不能用NO/N2O摩尔比小于1与否来推断土壤排放的N2O和NO是主要来源于反硝化作用还是硝化作用。  相似文献   

18.
An experimental micrometeorological set-up was established at the CARBOEURO-FLUX site in Tharandt, Germany, to measure all relevant variables for the calculation of the vertical and horizontal advective fluxes of carbon dioxide. The set-up includes two auxiliary towers to measure horizontal and vertical CO2 and H2O gradients through the canopy, and to make ultrasonic wind measurements in the trunk space. In combination with the long-term flux tower an approximately even-sided prism with a typical side-length of 50 m was established. It is shown that under stable (nighttime) conditions the mean advective fluxes have magnitudes on the same order as the daily eddy covariance (EC) flux, which implies that they play a significant, but not yet fully understood, role in the carbon budget equation. The two advective fluxes are opposite and seem to cancel each other at night (at least for these measurements). During the day, vertical advection tends to zero, while horizontal advection is still present implying a flow of CO2 out of the control volume. From our measurements, a mean daily gain of 2.2 gC m–2 d–1 for the horizontal advection and a mean daily loss of 2.5 gC m–2d–1 for the vertical advection is calculated for a period of 20 days. However the large scatter of the advective fluxes has to be further investigated. It is not clear yet whether the large variability is natural or due to measurement errors and conceptual deficiencies of the experiment. Similar results are found in the few comparable studies.  相似文献   

19.
在“双碳”目标背景下,从国家层面到地方层面,区域、城市、行业企业都在制定和实施双碳目标行动计划。CO2模拟因其客观性和高时空分辨率等优势,在城市碳排放研究中深受重视。本研究以京津冀地区为研究区域,采用Picarro仪器高精度观测的2019—2020年CO2数据,利用WRF模式进行CO2传输模拟,分析了CO2浓度变化的季节特征,评估了模式在城区中心、城郊及背景3个观测站点的模拟效果,并对边界层高度及化石燃料碳排放等可能影响CO2浓度的因素进行了研究。3个观测站点分别为北京中国科学院大气物理研究所325 m气象塔观测站(北京站)、河北香河观测站(香河站)和上甸子区域本底观测站(上甸子站)。模拟结果表明:上甸子站优于香河站,香河站优于北京站,在冬季尤其明显;CO2浓度的高值区主要分布在城区、电厂和工业区,尤其是唐山、石家庄和邯郸地区,大量交通、工业排放导致CO2浓度明显上升,且高值区的范围在冬季最大;就日平均变化和日变化而言,边界层高度与C...  相似文献   

20.
The photodissociation coefficient of NO2, J NO 2, has been measured from a balloon platform in the stratosphere. Results from two balloon flights are reported. High Sun values of J NO 2 measured were 10.5±0.3 and 10.3±0.3×10-3 s-1 at 24 and 32 km respectively. The decrease in J NO 2 at sunset was monitored in both flights. The measurements are found to be in good agreement with calculations of J NO 2 using a simplified isotropic multiple scattering computer routine.  相似文献   

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