An integrated model for the assessment of the greenhouse effect: The Dutch approach

This paper describes a simulation policy model of the combined greenhouse effects of trace gases. With this model, the Integrated Model for the Assessment of the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE) scenarios for the future impact of the greenhouse effect can be made, based on different assumptions for technological and socio-economic developments. The contribution of each trace gas can be estimated separately.Basically the model, consisting of a number of coupled modules, gives policy makers a concise overview of the problem and enables them to evaluate the impact of different strategies. Because the model covers the complete cause-effect relationship it can be utilized to derive allowable emission rates for the different trace gases from set effect related targets. Regular demonstration sessions with the simulation model have proven the importance of such science based integrated models for policy development.Four different scenarios are worked out for the most important trace gases (CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, CFC-11 and CFC-12). One of these scenarios can be regarded as a growth scenario unrestricted by environmental concerns. The others are based on different strategic policies. After the simulation of future trace gas concentrations global equilibrium temperature increases are computed. Finally the sea level rise, the most threatening effect of the greenhouse problem for the Netherlands, is estimated.Simulation results so far emphasize the importance of trace gases other than CO₂. The Montreal Protocol on reduction of CFC is found to stabilize the relative contribution of these substances to the greenhouse effect.     

Assessment of greenhouse gases emission from civil aviation in Russia

The greenhouse gases emission (CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O) from domestic and international aviation in the Russian Federation is assessed. In 2007, the total emission of CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O amounted to 18.4 million tons of CO₂-equivalent, which is 21% below the 1990 level. Carbon dioxide dominates in the component composition of the emissions, its part in 2007 accounted for 99.1% of the emission. Taking into account the tendency towards increasing fuel consumption due to intense aircraft traffic it can be expected that compared to the present level the greenhouse gases emissions in 2012 and 2020 will increase by 15 and 45%, respectively. Accounting for the increased aircraft emissions as well as plans of foreign countries to include the international aviation into the scheme of greenhouse gases emission allowance (trade credits) it is expedient to make more precise the greenhouse gases emissions from the Russian aviation based on the detailed flight data for all types of the aircraft.     

PM2.5 co-benefits of climate change legislation part 1: California’s AB 32

The Scoping Plan for compliance with California Assembly Bill 32 (Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006; AB 32) proposes a substantial reduction in 2020 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from all economic sectors through energy efficiency, renewable energy, and other technological measures. Most of the AB 32 Scoping Plan measures will simultaneously reduce emissions of traditional criteria pollutants along with GHGs leading to a co-benefit of improved air quality in California. The present study quantifies the airborne particulate matter (PM_2.5) co-benefits of AB 32 by comparing future air quality under a Business as Usual (BAU) scenario (without AB 32) to AB 32 implementation by sector. AB 32 measures were divided into five levels defined by sector as follows: 1) industrial sources, 2) electric utility and natural gas sources, 3) agricultural sources, 4) on-road mobile sources and 5) other mobile sources. Air quality throughout California was simulated using the UCD source-oriented air quality model during 12 days of severe air pollution and over 108 days of typical meteorology representing an annual average period in the year 2030 (10 years after the AB 32 adoption deadline). The net effect of all AB 32 measures reduced statewide primary PM and NO_x emissions by ~1 % and ~15 %, respectively. Air quality simulations predict that these emissions reductions lower population-weighted PM_2.5 concentrations by ~6 % for California. The South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) experienced the greatest reductions in PM_2.5 concentrations due to the AB 32 transportation measures while the San Joaquin Valley (SJV) experiences the smallest reductions or even slight increases in PM_2.5 concentrations due to the AB 32 measures that called for increased use of dairy biogas for electricity generation. The ~6 % reduction in PM_2.5 exposure associated with AB 32 predicted in the current study reduced air pollution mortality in California by 6.2 %, avoiding 880 (560–1100) premature deaths per year for the conditions in 2030. The monetary benefit from this avoided mortality was estimated at $5.4B/yr with a weighted average benefit per tonne of $35 k/tonne ($23 k/tonne–$45 k/tonne) of PM, NO_x, SO_x, and NH₃ emissions reduction.     

Investigating the Changes in Air Pollutant Emissions over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region in February from 2014 to 2019 through an Inverse Emission Method

In recent years, China has implemented several measures to improve air quality. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)region is one area that has suffered from the most serious air pollution in China and has undergone huge changes in air quality in the past few years. How to scientifically assess these change processes remain the key issue in further improving the air quality over this region in the future. To evaluate the changes in major air pollutant emissions over this region, this paper employs ens...     

Impacts of greenhouse gases and aerosol direct and indirect effects on clouds and radiation in atmospheric GCM simulations of the 1930–1989 period

Among anthropogenic perturbations of the Earths atmosphere, greenhouse gases and aerosols are considered to have a major impact on the energy budget through their impact on radiative fluxes. We use three ensembles of simulations with the LMDZ general circulation model to investigate the radiative impacts of five species of greenhouse gases (CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, CFC-11 and CFC-12) and sulfate aerosols for the period 1930–1989. Since our focus is on the atmospheric changes in clouds and radiation from greenhouse gases and aerosols, we prescribed sea-surface temperatures in these simulations. Besides the direct impact on radiation through the greenhouse effect and scattering of sunlight by aerosols, strong radiative impacts of both perturbations through changes in cloudiness are analysed. The increase in greenhouse gas concentration leads to a reduction of clouds at all atmospheric levels, thus decreasing the total greenhouse effect in the longwave spectrum and increasing absorption of solar radiation by reduction of cloud albedo. Increasing anthropogenic aerosol burden results in a decrease in high-level cloud cover through a cooling of the atmosphere, and an increase in the low-level cloud cover through the second aerosol indirect effect. The trend in low-level cloud lifetime due to aerosols is quantified to 0.5 min day^–1 decade^–1 for the simulation period. The different changes in high (decrease) and low-level (increase) cloudiness due to the response of cloud processes to aerosols impact shortwave radiation in a contrariwise manner, and the net effect is slightly positive. The total aerosol effect including the aerosol direct and first indirect effects remains strongly negative.     

基于CMAQ-MCM模型的长三角地区夏季臭氧和大气氧化性影响的研究

传统的空气质量模型多使用简化的光化学反应机制来模拟大气污染物的形成.这些机制主要基于烟雾箱实验拟合的反应速率和产物来模拟二次产物（如臭氧（O₃））前体物的氧化反应,具有一定的不确定性,导致模拟结果产生偏差.针对该问题,本研究将详细的大气化学机理（MCMv3.3.1）与美国国家环境保护局研制的第三代空气质量预报和评估系统CMAQ相结合（CMAQ-MCM）,模拟研究长三角地区2015年8月27—9月5日臭氧高发时段的空气质量.CMAQ-MCM模型可以较好地模拟长三角地区6个代表城市O₃和其前体物随时间的变化趋势.对模拟的O₃日最大8 h平均浓度的统计分析表明,徐州表现最好（标准平均误差=-0.15,标准平均偏差=0.23）.在长三角地区,居民源对挥发性有机物（VOCs）的贡献最大,占39.08%,其次是交通运输（33.25%）和工业（25.56%）.能源对总VOCs的贡献最小,约为2.11%.对活性氧化氮（NO_y）的分析表明,其主要组分是NO_x（80%）,其次是硝酸（HNO₃）（<10%）.O₃的空间分布与NO_y和NO_x非常相似.HCHO等其他氧化产物的分布与NO_x相似,这很可能是由于在高NO_x条件下VOCs氧化产生的产物.甲基乙烯基酮（MVK）和甲基丙烯醛（MACR）的空间分布与自然源VOCs （BVOCs）非常相似,表明长三角地区MVK和MACR主要由BVOCs氧化生成.长三角地区受到人为源和自然源排放相互作用的影响.     

Relative influence of air pollutants and weather conditions on solar radiation – Part 1: Relationship of air pollutants with weather conditions

Summary Air pollution measurements from January 1999 to December 2003 were studied in 14 sites covering most of Egypt, with the aim of understanding the governing processes pollutants phase interaction. The nature of the contributing sources has been investigated, and some attempts have been made to indicate the role played by neighboring regions in determining the air quality at these sites. The seasonal variability of particulate matter (PM₁₀) and some gaseous pollutants (e.g., SO₂, NO₂, CO and O₃) were analyzed. Their relationships with meteorology were also examined. The results reveal that levels of major air pollutants were not significantly different at the rural and background sites during any season. On contrary the high atmospheric loading for PM₁₀, CO and SO₂ was frequently observed in winter at the urban sites. As expected, the prevailing winds were found to have an influence not only on air pollutants but also on the correlation between them.     

A DIAGNOSTIC STUDY OF FEEDBACK MECHANISM IN GREENHOUSE EFFECTS SIMULATED BY NCAR CCM1

This paper describes a diagnostic study of the feedback mechanism in greenhouse effects of increased CO_2 and oth-er trace gases(CH_4,N_2O and CFCs),simulated by general circulation model.The study is based on two sensitivity exper-iments for doubled CO_2 and the inclusion of other trace gases,respectively,using version one of the community climatemodel(CCM1)developed at the National Centre for Atmospheric Research.A one-dimensional(1-D)and atwo-dimensional(2-D)radiative-convective models are used to diagnose the feedback effect.It shows that thefeedback factors in global and annual mean conditions are in the sequence of surface albedo,water vapor amount,watervapor distribution,cloud height,critical lapse rate and cloud cover,while in zonal and annual mean conditions in thetropical region the above sequence does not change except the two water vapor terms being the largest feedback compo-nents.Among the feedback components,the total water vapor feedback is the largest(about 50%).The diagnosis alsogives a very small feedback of either the cloud cover or the lapse rate,which is substantially different from the 1-Dfeedback analysis by Hansen et al.(1984).The small lapse rate feedback is considered to be partly caused by theconvective adjustment scheme adopted by CCM1 model.The feedback effect for doubled CO_2 is very different from that of the addition of other trace gases because of theirdifferent vertical distributions of radiative forcing although the non-feedback responses of surface air temperature forboth cases are almost the same.For instance,the larger forcing at surface by the addition of other trace gases can causestronger surface albedo feedback than by doubled CO_2.Besides,because of the negative forcing of doubled CO_2 in thestratosphere,cloud height feedback is more intense.The larger surface forcing in the case of other trace gases can also in-fluence atmospheric water vapor amount as well as the water vapor distribution,which will in turn have strongerfeedback effects.All these indicate that it is incorrect to use“effective CO_2”to replace other trace gases in the generalcirculation model.     

Climate Responses to Direct Radiative Forcing of Anthropogenic Aerosols,Tropospheric Ozone,and Long-Lived Greenhouse Gases in Eastern China over 1951–2000

A unified chemistry-aerosol-climate model is applied in this work to compare climate responses to chang- ing concentrations of long-lived greenhouse gases(GHGs,CO2,CH4,N2O),tropospheric O3,and aerosols during the years 1951–2000.Concentrations of sulfate,nitrate,primary organic carbon(POA),secondary organic carbon(SOA),black carbon(BC)aerosols,and tropospheric O3 for the years 1950 and 2000 are obtained a priori by coupled chemistry-aerosol-GCM simulations,and then monthly concentrations are in- terpolated ...     

The effectiveness of measures to reduce the man-made greenhouse effect. The application of a Climate-policy Model

Summary In this paper we briefly describe the characteristics and the performance of our 1-D Muenster Climate Model. The model system consists of coupled models including gas cycle models, an energy balance model and a sea level rise model. The chemical feedback mechanisms among greenhouse gases are not included. This model, which is a scientifically-based parameterized simulation model, is used here primarily to help assess the effectiveness of various plausible policy options in mitigating the additional man-made greenhouse warming and the resulting sea level rise.For setting priorities it is important to assess the effectiveness of the various measures by which the greenhouse effect can be reduced. To this end we take a Scenario Business-as-Usual as a reference case (Leggett et al., 1992) and study the mitigating effects of the following four packages of measures: The Copenhagen Agreements on CFC, HCFC, and halon reduction (GECR, 1992), the Tropical Forest Preservation Plan of the Climate Enquete-Commission of the German Parliament on CO₂ reduction (ECGP, 1990), a detailed reduction scheme for energy-related CO₂ (ECGP, 1990), and a preliminary scheme for CH₄, CO, and N₂O reduction (Bach and Jain, 1992–1993).The required reduction depends, among others, on the desired climate and ecosystem protection. This is defined by the Enquete-Commission and others as a mean global rate of surface temperature change of ca. 0.1 °C per decade — assumed to be critical to many ecosystems — and a mean global warming ceiling of ca. 2 °C in 2100 relative to 1860.Our results show that the Copenhagen Agreements, the Tropical Forest Preservation Plan, the energy-related CO₂ reduction scheme, and the CH₄ and N₂O reduction schemes could mitigate the anthropogenic greenhouse warming by ca. 12%, 6%, 35%, and 9% respectively. Taken together, all four packages of measures could reduce the man-made greenhouse effect by more than 60% until 2100; i.e. over the climate sensitivity range 2.5 °C (1.5 to 4.5) for 2 × CO₂, the warming could be reduced from 3.5 °C (2.4 to 5.0) without specific measures to 1.3 °C (0.9 to 2.0) with the above packages of measures; and likewise, the mean global sea level rise could be reduced from 65 cm (46 to 88) without specific measures to 32 cm (22 to 47) with the above measures.Finally, the model results also emphasize the importance of trace gases other than CO₂ in mitigating additional man-made greenhouse warming. According to our preliminary estimates, CH₄ could in the short term make a sizable contribution to the reduction of the greenhouse effect (because of its relatively short lifetime of 10 yr), as could N₂O in the medium and long term (with a relatively long lifetime of 150 yr).With 7 Figures     

Economics and the ‘greenhouse effect’

There is growing scientific and public concern that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will produce global warming and other climatic changes. Although economic activity is the main source of greenhouse gas emissions, information and incentive problems make it difficult to translate concern about global warming into economic behaviour and policy conducive to reducing emissions. The paper considers a set of near term (carbon tax), intermediate term (afforestation, energy efficiency) and long term (new non-fossil fuel technologies) strategies for reducing CO₂ in the atmosphere. Each strategy has useful attributes, but shortcomings or limitations too. While the near term and intermediate term strategies can slow and perhaps reverse the growth of CO₂ emissions, only a successful long term strategy of fostering the development of some promising non-fossil fuel technologies, such as solar and solar-hydrogen, can eventually halt the build-up of CO₂ in the atmosphere. Moreover, public investment in the development of new non-fossil fuel technologies would largely obviate the information and incentive problems that currently stand in the way of an economically viable greenhouse policy.     

The 1985 chlorine and fluorine inventories in the stratosphere based on ATMOS observations at 30° north latitude

The set of high-resolution infrared solar observations made with the Atmospheric Trace Molecule Spectroscopy (ATMOS)-Fourier transform spectrometer from onboard Spacelab 3 (30 April-1 May 1985) has been used to evaluate the total budgets of the odd chlorine and fluorine chemical families in the stratosphere. These budgets are based on volume mixing ratio profiles measured for HCl, HF, CH₃Cl, ClONO₂, CCl₄, CCl₂F₂, CCl₃F, CHClF₂, CF₄, COF₂, and SF₆ near 30° north latitude. When including realistic concentrations for species not measured by ATMOS, i.e., the source gases CH₃CCl₃ and C₂F₃Cl₃ below 25 km, and the reservoirs ClO, HOCl and COFCl between 15 and 40 km (five gases actually measured by other techniques), the 30° N zonal 1985 mean total mixing ratio of chlorine, Cl, was found to be equal to (2.58±0.10) ppbv (parts per billion by volume) throughout the stratosphere, with no significant decrease near the stratopause. The results for total fluorine indicate a slight, but steady, decrease of its volume mixing ratio with increasing altitude, around a mean stratospheric value of (1.15±0.12) ppbv. Both uncertainties correspond to one standard deviation. These mean springtime 1985 stratospheric budgets are commensurate with values reported for the tropospheric Cl and F concentrations in the early 1980s, when allowance is made for the growth rates of their source gases at the ground and the time required for tropospheric air to be transported into the stratosphere. The results are discussed with emphasis on conservation of fluorine and chlorine and the partitioning among source, sink, and reservoir gases throughout the stratosphere.     

A 1-D modelling of climatic and chemical effects of greenhouse gases

Summary A coupled 1-D time-dependent radiative-convective-photochemical diffusion model which extends from the surface to 60 km is used to investigate the potential impact of greenhouse trace gas emissions on long-term changes in global climate, atmospheric ozone and surface UV-B radiation, taking into accoont the influence of aerosol loading into the atmosphere from major volcanic eruptions, of thermal inertia of the upper mixed layer of the ocean and of other radiativephotochemical feedback mechanisms. Experiments are carried out under global and annual average insolation and cloudiness conditions. The transient calculations are made for three different growth scenarios for increase in trace gas concentrations. Scenario 1, which begins in 1850, uses the best estimate values for future trace gas concentrations of CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, CFC-11, CFC-12 and tropospheric O₃, based on current observational trends. Scenarios 2 and 3, which begin in 1990, assume lower and upper ranges, respectively, of observed growth rates to estimate future concentrations.The transient response of the model for Scenario 1 suggests that surface warming of the ocean mixed layer of about 1 K should have taken place between 1850 and 1990 due to a combined increase of atmospheric CO₂ and other trace gases. For the three scenarios considered in this study, the cumulative surface warming induced by all major trace gases for the period 1850 to 2080 ranges from 2.7 K to 8.2 K with the best estimate value of 5 K. The results indicate that the direct and the indirect chemistry-climate interactions of non-CO₂ trace gases contribute significantly to the cumulative surface warming (up to 65% by the year 2080). The thermal inertia of a mixed layer of the ocean is shown to have the effect of delaying equilibrium surface warming by almost three decades with an e-folding time of about 5 years. The volcanic aerosols which would result from major volcanic eruptions play a significant role by interrupting the long-term greenhouse surface warming trend and replacing it by a temporary cooling on a time scale of a decade or less. Furthermore, depending on the scenario used, a reduction in the net ozone column could result in an increase in the solar UV-B radiation at the surface by as much as 300% towards the end of 21st century.With 14 Figures     

Greenhouse gas emissions from intensive livestock systems: Their estimation and technologies for reduction

Intensive agricultural systems provide opportunities for inefficiency and leakage of materials into the wider environment. Animal production systems are potential sources of two important greenhouse gases, i.e. methane and nitrous oxide. Because of the complexity of the processes involved and of the numerous interactions there is a need to consider the potential for release of these two gases on an integrated, whole farm basis to ascertain the impact of management systems. Using information from the literature, the present study examines the potential losses of CH₄ and N₂O from components of a model intensive dairy farm based on temperate grassland. It is estimated that a typical 76 ha dairy farm in SW England could emit nearly 12 tonnes (t) CH₄-C and over 1 t N₂O-N. Gaps in existing knowledge are identified and options to reduce emissions discussed.     

Climate Warming Mitigation from Nationally Determined Contributions

Individual countries are requested to submit nationally determined contributions(NDCs) to alleviate global warming in the Paris Agreement. However, the global climate effects and regional contributions are not explicitly considered in the countries’ decision-making process. In this study, we evaluate the global temperature slowdown of the NDC scenario(?T =0.6°C) and attribute the global temperature slowdown to certain regions of the world with a compact earth system model.Considering reductions ...     

Air quality benefit of China’s mitigation target to peak its emission by 2030

In 2015, China committed to reducing its emission intensity per unit of gross domestic product by 60–65% from its 2005 rate and to peak its carbon emission by 2030. Problems related to local pollutants and haze are simultaneously worsening in China. This article focuses on the critical topic of co-controlling carbon emission and local air pollutants and evaluates the co-benefit of carbon mitigation in local pollutant reduction by using a partial equilibrium model that links carbon emission and local air pollutants at the technological level. Three conclusions can be drawn from the scenario analysis. First, in the reference scenario, energy consumption and carbon emission continue to increase and air quality is expected to deteriorate in the future. Therefore, current pollutant control measures should be improved. Second, local pollutants will be significantly reduced in the end-of-pipe control scenario, but the reduction will still be inadequate to fulfil the air quality target. Third, emissions of SO₂, NO_x, and PM_2.5 in 2030 will be reduced by 78.85%, 77.56%, and 83.32%, respectively, compared with the 2010 levels in the co-control scenario involving the peaking effort in China. Therefore, the air quality targets can also be achieved when the peaking target is fulfilled. The Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) of China to peak its emission by 2030 is consistent with its domestic interest to improve local air quality.

POLICY RELEVANCE

China submitted its INDC to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 2015 and has promised to peak its carbon emission by 2030. In recent years, China has also faced severe pressure to address its air pollution problem. Air quality is an important driving force to incentivize more ambitious mitigation measures that can contribute to the simultaneous reduction of carbon emission and air pollutants. Air quality benefit provides a strong justification for the INDC of China and the possibility of early peaking. Moreover, the co-benefit in China can be a reference for other developing countries that are facing the same challenge and can reinforce the initiative of these countries to promote ambitious mitigation actions.     

The Cost of Using Global Warming Potentials: Analysing the Trade off Between CO2, CH4 and N2O

The metric governing the trade-off between different greenhouse gases in the Kyoto Protocol, the Global Warming Potentials (GWPs), has received ample critique from both scientific and economic points of view. Here we use an integrated climate-economic optimization model to estimate the cost-effective trade-off between CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O when meeting a temperature stabilization target. We then estimate the increased cost from using GWPs when meeting the same temperature target. Although the efficient valuation of the gases differs significantly from their respective GWPs, the potential economic benefit of valuing them in a more correct way amounts to 3.8 percent of the overall costs of meeting the temperature stabilization target in the base case. In absolute value, this corresponds to an additional net present value cost of US$₂₀₀₀100 billion. To corroborate our findings we perform a Monte Carlo-analysis where several key parameters are randomly varied simultaneously. The result from this exercise shows that our main result is robust to a wide range of changes in the key parameter values, giving a median economic loss from using GWPs of 4.2 percent.     

Climatic change in Britain: Is SO2 more significant than CO2?

Summary Many climate scientists have suggested that anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases may create severe climate problems for Britain; however, the potential cooling effects of sulphur dioxide are widely acknowledged. In this investigation, we analyze British mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation, and mean diurnal air temperature range over the period 1929–1988. Our analyses of these records reveal (a) a shift in the early 1950s away from warming and toward cooling, (b) a relative decline in maximum air temperatures when compared to minimum air temperatures, (c) a strong decline in the diurnal air temperature range and (d) a significant linkage between diurnal temperature range and precipitation. Given these signals in the observed climate record, it would appear that SO₂ rather than CO₂ has been the major anthropogenic climate influence in Britain over the past four decades.With 6 Figures     

基于极端随机树方法的WRF-CMAQ-MOS模型研究

随着城市化、工业化的快速发展,空气污染已经成为了公众最关注的问题之一。为了提高空气质量预报的准确度,以多尺度空气质量模型（Community Multi-Scale Air Quality,CMAQ）为工具,结合中尺度WRF（Weather Research and Forecast Model）气象预报数据、气象观测数据、污染物浓度观测数据,基于极端随机树方法建立了WRF-CMAQ-MOS（Weather Research and Forecast Model-Community Multi-Scale Air Quality-Model Output Statistics）统计修正模型。结果表明,结合WRF气象预报的CMAQ-MOS方法明显修正了由于模型非客观性产生的模式预报偏差,提高了预报效果。使用线性回归方法不能获得较好的优化效果,选取极端随机树方法和梯度提升回归树方法对模型进行改进和比较,发现极端随机树方法对结合WRF气象要素的CMAQ-MOS模型有较大的提升。针对徐州地区空气质量预报,进一步使用基于极端随机树方法的WRF-CMAQ-MOS模型对2016年1、2、3月的空气质量指数（AQI）及PM_2.5、PM₁₀、NO₂、SO₂、O₃、CO六种污染物优化试验进行验证,发现优化效果最为明显的两种污染物分别是NO₂及O₃,2016年1、2、3月整体相关系数NO₂由0.35升至0.63,O₃由0.39升至0.79,均方根误差NO₂由0.0346减至0.0243 mg/m3,O₃由0.0447减至0.0367 mg/m3。文中发展的WRF-CMAQ-MOS统计修正模型可以有效提升预报精度,在空气质量预报中具有很好的应用前景。      

Methods for exploring management options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from tropical grazing systems

Increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to result in global climatic changes over the next decades. Means of evaluating and reducing greenhouse gas emissions are being sought. In this study an existing simulation model of a tropical savanna woodland grazing system was adapted to account for greenhouse gas emissions. This approach may be able to be used in identifying ways to assess and limit emissions from other rangeland, agricultural and natural ecosystems.GRASSMAN, an agricultural decision-support model, was modified to include sources, sinks and storages of greenhouse gases in the tropical and sub-tropical savanna woodlands of northern Australia. The modified model was then used to predict the changes in emissions and productivity resulting from changes in stock and burning management in a hypothetical grazing system in tropical northeastern Queensland. The sensitivity of these results to different Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) and emission definitions was then tested.Management options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the tropical grazing system investigated were highly sensitive to the GWPs used, and to the emission definition adopted. A recommendation to reduce emissions by changing burning management would be toreduce fire frequency if both direct and indirect GWPs of CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, CO and NO are used in evaluating emissions, but toincrease fire frequency if only direct GWPs of CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O are used. The ability to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from these systems by reducing stocking rates was also sensitive to the GWPs used. In heavily grazed systems, the relatively small reductions in stocking rate needed to reduce emissions significantly should also reduce the degradation of soils and vegetation, thereby improving the sustainability of these enterprises.The simulation studies indicate that it is possible to alter management to maximise beef cattle production per unit greenhouse gases or per unit methane emitted, but that this is also dependent upon the emission definition used. High ratios of liveweight gain per unit net greenhouse gas emission were found in a broadly defined band covering the entire range of stocking rates likely to be used. In contrast, high values of liveweight gain per unit anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission were found only at very low stocking rates that are unlikely to be economically viable.These results suggest that policy initiatives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from tropical grazing systems should be evaluated cautiously until the GWPs have been further developed and the implications of emission definitions more rigorously determined.