Assessing the ‘usability’ of climate change research for decision-making: A case study of the Canadian International Polar Year

The creation of ‘usable science’ is widely promoted by many environmental change focused research programs. Few studies however, have examined the relationship between research conducted as part of such programs and the decision-making outcomes that the work is supposed to advance, and is constrained by limited methodological development on how to empirically assess the ‘usability’ of science. Herein, this paper develops a conceptual model and assessment rubric to quantitatively and systematically evaluate the usability of climate change research for informing decision-making. We focus on the process through which data is collected, analyzed and reported and examine the extent to which key principles of usable science are integrated into project design, using grant proposals as our data source. The approach is applied to analyze climate change research conducted as part of the International Polar Year in Canada, with 23 projects identified as having explicit goals to inform decision-making.While the creation of usable science was promoted by funded projects in the International Polar Year, this was not generally reflected in research design: fewer than half determined objectives with input of decision makers, decision context was not widely considered, and knowledge users were not widely reported to be engaged in assessing the quality of data or in resolving conflict in evidence. The importance of science communication was widely emphasized, although only 8/23 projects discussed tailoring specific results for end user needs. Thus while International Polar Year research has made significant advances in understanding the human dimensions of Arctic climate change, key attributes necessary for determining success in linking science to decision-making (pertinence, quality, timeliness) were not captured by many projects. Integrating these attributes into research design from the outset is essential for creating usable science, and needs to be at the forefront of future research programs which aim to advance societal outcomes. The framework for assessing usability here, while developed and tested in an Arctic climate change context, has broader applicability in the general environmental change field.     

Formation of the anomalous summer precipitation in east China in 2010 and 1998: A comparison of the impacts of two kinds of El Niño

In the summers of 1998 and 2010, severe floods occurred in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Although an El Niño event took place preceding each of the summer floods, significant differences between the two summer floods and the two El Niño events were identified. The 1997/98 El Niño is a conventional one with strongest warming in the central-eastern Pacific, whereas the 2009/10 event is an El Niño Modoki with strongest warming in the central Pacific. In this study, summer rainfall anomalies (SRA) in the two years were first compared based on the rainfall data at 160 stations in mainland China, and a significant difference in SRA was found. To understand the underlying mechanism for the difference, the atmospheric circulation systems, particularly the western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC), the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), and the low-level air flows, were compared in the two years by using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The results display that the WNPAC was stronger in 2010 than in 1998, along with a northwestward shift, causing weakened southwesterly from the Bay of Bengal to the South China Sea but intensified southerly in eastern China. This resulted in less water vapor transport from the tropical Indian Ocean and the South China Sea but more from the subtropical western Pacific to East Asia. Subsequently, the rainband in 2010 shifted northward. The difference in the WNPAC was caused by the anomalous ascending motion associated with the warming location in the two El Niño events. Furthermore, the role of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) in modulating these differences was investigated by conducting sensitivity experiments using GFDL AM2.1 (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Atmospheric Model). Two experiments were performed, one with the observed monthly SST and the other with June SST persisting through the whole summer. The results suggest that the model well reproduced the primary differences in the atmospheric circulation systems in the two years. It is found that the difference in El Niño events has shaped the rainfall patterns in the two years of 1998 and 2010. At last, the case of 2010 was compared with the composite of historical El Niño Modoki events, and the results indicate that the impact of El Niño Modoki varies from case to case and is more complicated than previously revealed.     

Adaptation action and research in glaciated mountain systems: Are they enough to meet the challenge of climate change?

The challenge of climate change in glaciated mountain systems is significant and cannot be met without adaptation actions and research that addresses the interwoven scientific, human, and socio-ecological dimensions of climate change. However, our understanding of the effectiveness of existing efforts in meeting this challenge is lacking, a shortcoming compounded by a lack of consistent and comparable information about adaptation action and research in glaciated mountain systems. This study develops a typology of the challenge of climate change in glaciated mountain systems and uses formal systematic review methods to critically evaluate existing adaptation actions and research in light of this framework. Our results––based on an evaluation of 170 English-language peer-reviewed and grey literature documents––indicate that socially-relevant climate-related changes are already manifesting in glaciated mountain systems, with the most commonly documented stimuli for adaptation being hydrological changes related to the degradation of the high mountain cryosphere. Some degree of adaptation action has occurred in 78% of countries with glaciated mountain ranges, but most adaptations are reactions to experienced climatic stimuli and carried out without guidance from a formal adaptation plan. The study also identified the emergence of explicitly mountain-focused adaptation research, yet studies framed in this way are still relatively scarce and have only been carried out in about half of the countries with glaciated mountain ranges. Although we document several laudable adaptation action and research efforts, few initiatives are adequately addressing the difficulties outlined in our evaluation framework for the challenge of climate change. The study discusses the consequences of observed shortcomings and identifies recommendations for more fully meeting the challenge of climate change in glaciated mountain systems.     

Simulated response of the active layer thickness of permafrost to climate change: 模拟多年冻土活动层厚度对气候变化的响应

The active layer thickness (ALT) in permafrost regions, which affects water and energy exchange, is a key variable for assessing hydrological processes, cold-region engineering, and climate change. In this study, the authors analyzed the variation trends and relative changes of simulated ALTs using the Chinese Academy of Sciences Land Surface Model (CAS-LSM) and the Chinese Academy of Sciences Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System Model, gridpoint version 3 (CAS-FGOALS-g3). Firstly, the simulated ALTs produced by CAS-LSM were shown to be reasonable by comparing them with Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring observations. Then, the authors simulated the ALTs from 1979 to 2014, and their relative changes across the entire Northern Hemisphere from 2015 to 2100. It is shown that the ALTs have an increasing trend. From 1979 to 2014, the average ALTs and their variation trends over all permafrost regions were 1.08 m and 0.33 cm yr⁻¹, respectively. The relative changes of the ALTs ranged from 1% to 58%, and the average relative change was 10.9%. The variation trends of the ALTs were basically consistent with the variation trends of the 2-m air temperature. By 2100, the relative changes of ALTs are predicted to be 10.3%, 14.6%, 30.1%, and 51%, respectively, under the four considered hypothetical climate scenarios (SSP-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). This study indicates that climate change has a substantial impact on ALTs, and our results can help in understanding the responses of the ALTs of permafrost due to climate change.摘要在气候变化背景下, 活动层厚度的变化会对多年冻土区水文,生态,寒区工程等产生较大的影响.本研究利用中科院气候系统模式CAS-FGOALS-g3和陆面过程模式CAS-LSM 模拟分析了活动层厚度的变化趋势和相对变化.结果表明:活动层厚度整体上呈现出增加的趋势.1979 - 2014年, 多年冻土区活动层厚度的区域平均为1.08 m, 变化趋势为0.33 cm yr⁻¹, 其变化趋势与2 m气温变化趋势基本一致, 相对变化范围为1%-58%, 平均为10.9%.在未来四种不同的气候情景(SSP-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5)下, 到2100年预计活动层厚度的相对变化分别为10.3%,14.6%,30.1%和51%.     

Comment on “application of the Canadian regional climate model to the Laurentian Great Lakes region: Implementation of a lake model”

Abstract

A recently published slab model formulation of lake thermodynamics (Goyette et al., 2000), including an empirical factor to adjust the incoming heat flux so that the modelled lake surface temperature agrees with observed climatology, leads to a distinct lack of energy conservation. The empirical adjustment conceptually represents an exchange of heat between the mixed‐layer water (the slab that is explicitly simulated in the model) and deeper layers of water. It ensures a realistic temporal progression of temperature in the mixed layer, but the thermodynamic balance of the deeper water is not considered. When the deeper water is considered, it is found that the empirical adjustment accounts for the entire heat input to the deeper water, and on an annual mean basis, it is considerably unbalanced. This reveals a flaw in this model concept and, although not entirely invalidating the model, it needs to be included as a caveat in its use.     

Lights, camera … action? Altered attitudes and behaviour in response to the climate change film The Age of Stupid

The film The Age of Stupid depicts the world in 2055 devastated by climate change, combining this with documentary footage which illustrates many facets of the problems of climate change and fossil-fuel dependency. This study investigates the effects of the film on UK viewers’ attitudes and behaviour through a three-stage survey. Analysis of changes in attitudes focussed particularly on respondents’ concern about climate change, motivation to act, fear about the potential for catastrophe, beliefs about responsibility for action, and sense of agency. The film increased concern about climate change, motivation to act, and viewers’ sense of agency, although these effects had not persisted 10-14 weeks after seeing it. It was also successful in promoting some mitigation actions and behavioural change, although respondents reported barriers to further action, such as limited options for improving home energy efficiency among those in rented accommodation. However, filmgoers were atypical of the general public in that they exhibited very high levels of concern about climate change, knowledge about how to reduce their carbon emissions, and contact with organisations campaigning about climate change, before they saw the film. The paper considers how these factors may have enabled viewers to respond to the film as they did, as well as policy implications for those seeking to develop effective climate change communications.     

A rose by any other name ...?: What members of the general public prefer to call “climate change”

Unlike many other environmental problems, the terms used to describe the phenomenon of increasing atmospheric concentrations of anthropogenic greenhouse gases are many, with multiple and sometimes conflicting meanings. Whether there are meaningful distinctions in public perceptions of “global warming,” “climate change,” and “global climate change” has been a topic of research over the past decade. This study examines public preferences for these terms based on respondent characteristics, including climate change beliefs, political affiliation, and audience segment status derived from the “Global Warming’s Six Americas” classification. Certainty of belief in global warming, political affiliation and audience segment status were found to be the strongest predictors of preference, although “I have no preference” was the modal response. Global warming appears to be a more polarizing term than climate change, preferred most by people already concerned about the issue, and least by people who don’t believe climate change is occurring. Further research is needed to identify which of these two names promotes the engagement of people across the spectrum of climate change beliefs in constructive dialogue about the issue.     

“Pollution Pods”: The merging of art and psychology to engage the public in climate change

Environmental artists have risen to the challenge of communicating the urgency of public action to address environmental problems such as air pollution and climate change. Joining this challenge, the immersive artwork Pollution Pods (PPs) was created through a synthesis of knowledge from the fields of environmental psychology, empirical aesthetics, and activist art. This study summarizes the scientific process in this transdisciplinary project and reports the findings from a questionnaire study (N = 2662) evaluating the effect of the PPs on visitors. Data were collected at the first two exhibitions of the installation, one in a public park in Trondheim, Norway, and one at Somerset House, London, UK. Intentions to act were strong and slightly increased after visiting the art installation. Individual changes in intentions were positively associated with self-reported emotions of sadness, helplessness, and anger and self-reported cognitive assessment their awareness of the environmental consequences of their action, their willingness to take responsibility for their consequences, and belief in the relevance of environmental problems for daily life. Education and age were negatively associated with intentions. Despite favorable intentions, however, taking advantage of an actual behavioral opportunity to track one's climate change emissions behavior after visiting the PPs could not be detected. We conclude that environmental art can be useful for environmental communication and give recommendations for communicators on how to best make use of it. We emphasize the potential benefits of art that encourages personal responsibility and the need for valid behavior measures in environmental psychological research.     

A spatio-temporal modelling framework for assessing the fluctuations of avalanche occurrence resulting from climate change: application to 60 years of data in the northern French Alps

Based on a previous township-scale model, a spatio-temporal framework is proposed to study the fluctuations of avalanche occurrence possibly resulting from climate change. The regional annual component is isolated from the total variability using a two-factor nonlinear analysis of variance. Moreover, relying on a Conditional AutoRegressive sub-model for the spatial effects, the structured time trend is distinguished from the random noise with different time series sub-models including autocorrelative, periodic and change-point models. The hierarchical structure obtained takes into account the uncertainty related to the estimation of the annual component for the quantification of the time trend. Bayesian inference is performed using Monte Carlo simulations. This allows a comparison of the different time series models and the prediction of future activity in an explicit unsteady context. Application to the northern French Alps illustrates the information provided by the model’s different components, mainly the spatial and temporal terms as well as the spatio-temporal fluctuation of the relative risk. For instance, it shows no strong modifications in mean avalanche activity or in the number of winters of low or high activity over the last 60 years. This suggests that climate change has recently had little impact on the avalanching rhythm in this region. However, significant temporal patterns are highlighted: a complex combination of abrupt changes and pseudo-periodic cycles of approximately 15 years. For anticipating the future response of snow avalanches to climate change, correlating them with fluctuations of the constraining climatic factors is now necessary.     

“Reporting on climate change: A computational analysis of U.S. newspapers and sources of bias, 1997–2017”

News organizations constitute key sites of science communication between experts and lay audiences, giving many individuals their basic worldview of complex topics like climate change. Previous researchers have studied climate change news coverage to assess accuracy in reporting and potential sources of bias. These studies typically rely on manually coding articles from a handful of prestigious outlets, not allowing comparisons with smaller newspapers or providing enough diversity to assess the influence of partisan orientation or localized climate vulnerability on content production. Making these comparisons, this study indicates that partisan orientation, scale of circulation, and vulnerability to climate change correlate with several topics present in U.S. newspaper coverage of climate change. After assembling a corpus of over 78,000 articles covering two decades from 52 U.S. newspapers that are diverse in terms of geography, partisan orientation, scale of circulation, and objectively measured climate risk, a coherent set of latent topics were identified via an automated content analysis of climate change news coverage. Topic model results indicate that while outlet bias does not appear to impact the prevalence of coverage for most topics surrounding climate change, differences were evident for some topics based on partisan orientation, scale, or vulnerability status, particularly those relating to climate change denial, impacts, mitigation, or resource use. Overall, this paper provides a comprehensive study of U.S. newspaper coverage of climate change and identifies specific topics where outlet bias constitutes an important contextual factor.     

“We don’t tell people what to do”: An examination of the factors influencing NGO decisions to campaign for reduced meat consumption in light of climate change

To date, efforts by non-governmental organizations to encourage reduced meat consumption in light of climate change have been quite limited, particularly among environmental non-governmental organizations. This study sought to examine the factors influencing non-governmental organization decisions to establish and sustain dedicated public education and/or policy advocacy campaigns on this issue. More specifically, a grounded theory approach was used to examine environmental, food-focused, and animal protection non-governmental organizations in the U.S., Sweden, and Canada. Results indicate that the relatively limited degree of engagement is primarily attributable to the fact that few non-governmental organization staffers felt that addressing meat consumption within a climate change context was a part of their core missions. Reduced meat consumption was also seen as an issue with limited social and political appeal. Further, many environmental non-governmental organizations appeared to be reluctant to mount campaigns explicitly encouraging personal behavior change of any type. Cross- non-governmental organization collaboration or the creation of additional non-governmental organizations with missions focused on this specific issue may be needed to increase the level of campaigning on this issue.     

“It won't be any good to have democracy if we don’t have a country”: Climate change and the politics of synecdoche in the Maldives

Critical attention has recently turned to the climate change “synecdoche”: a place uniquely exposed to the environmental consequences of climate crisis, such as sea-level rise, that becomes a stand-in for the global crisis as a whole and a harbinger of more widespread disaster. The Maldives, which scientists, politicians, and activists predict could be completely submerged by 2100, filled that role between the 2008 inauguration of Mohamed Nasheed, the country's first democratically elected president after years of authoritarian rule, and his 2012 ouster. This ethnography of the Maldivian challenge to climate change asks how claiming a geopolitical identity as the world’s “canary in the coalmine” fostered an emerging internal political culture.I argue that arming climate change solutions became a state-making device in the Maldives, whose fragile coral atoll ecosystem itself became the synecdoche of a young democracy. Between 2008 and 2012, how was environmental knowledge creation understood as a democratic activity? To answer this question, I draw on ethnographic interview testimony and participant-observation in Malé, the Maldivian capital, with politicians, activists, and city residents, as well as an analysis of the Nasheed administration’s public rhetoric. The article centers on the case of Bluepeace, the country’s oldest environmental NGO, which has seen significant international publicity. Following Bluepeace’s efforts to help the Maldives achieve carbon neutrality by 2020—part of Nasheed’s plan to end global climate change through exemplary national sacrifice—this article finds that climate problem solving and democracy were put to work for one another through small-scale mitigation and adaptation experiments.