Response of the geomagnetic activity to solar wind turbulence during solar cycle 23

The solar wind–magnetosphere coupled system is characterized by dynamical processes. Recent works have shown that nonlinear couplings and turbulence might play a key role in the study of solar wind–magnetosphere interaction processes.Within this framework, this study presents a statistical analysis aimed to investigate the relationship between solar wind MHD turbulence and geomagnetic activity at high and low latitudes as measured by the AE and SYM-H indices, respectively. This analysis has been performed for different phases of solar cycle 23. The state of turbulence was characterized by means of 2-D histograms of the normalized cross-helicity and the normalized residual energy. The geomagnetic response was then studied in relation to those histograms.The results found clearly show that, from a statistical point of view, solar cycle 23 is somewhat peculiar. Indeed, good Alfvénic correlations are found unexpectedly even during solar activity maximum. This fact has implications on the geomagnetic response as well since a statistical relationship is found between Alfvénic fluctuations and auroral activity. Conversely, solar wind turbulence does not seem to play a relevant role in the geomagnetic response at low latitudes.     

Properties of solar activity and ionosphere for solar cycle 25

Based on the known forecast of solar cycle 25 amplitude (Rz _max ≈ 50), the first assessments of the shape and amplitude of this cycle in the index of solar activity F10.7 (the magnitude of solar radio flux at the 10.7 cm wavelength) are given. It has been found that (F10.7)_max ≈ 115, which means that it is the lowest solar cycle ever encountered in the history of regular ionospheric measurements. For this reason, many ionospheric parameters for cycle 25, including the F2-layer peak height and critical frequency (hmF2 and foF2), will be extremely low. For example, at middle latitudes, typical foF2 values will not exceed 8–10 MHz, which makes ionospheric heating ineffective in the area of upper hybrid resonance at frequencies higher than 10 MHz. The density of the atmosphere will also be extremely low, which significantly extends the lifetime of low-orbit satellites. The probability of F-spread will be increased, especially during night hours.     

On the prediction of relativistic electron fluence based on its relationship with geomagnetic activity over a solar cycle

A study has been carried out to determine the relationship between high energy relativistic (>2 MeV) electron fluence and auroral zone geomagnetic activity for a solar cycle. Data for 1987–1997, spanning Solar Cycle 22, were used in the study. The relativistic electron fluence data were based on fluxes observed by the GOES geosynchronous satellites. The geomagnetic data were the DRX indices derived from a Canadian magnetic observatory located in the auroral zone at Fort Churchill, near the footprint of field lines passing through geostationary satellites. This work, based on data from a solar cycle, confirms earlier findings using limited data from segments of a solar cycle of enhancement in fluence 2–3 days after increases in geomagnetic activity, and shows the cycle dependence of fluence with respect to geomagnetic activity. This study underlines the influence of recurrent coronal holes on fluence level as well as the possible role of Pc5 magnetic pulsations as an electron acceleration mechanism, and highlights the predictability of fluence from ground geomagnetic data. A fluence prediction algorithm can now solely be based on derived expressions relating fluence and DRX. Thus, a simple fluence prediction scheme can easily be implemented to provide a 2–3 day advance warning of space weather conditions hazardous to geosynchronous satellites, since during days of high fluence, the likelihood of internal charging in a satellite is high, with possible discharges that could result in satellite operational anomalies. For verification purpose, daily values of fluence for 1997–2000 and for January 1994 were postcast using the derived expressions. The postcast values were validated, and the results give credence to the fluence prediction scheme.     

太阳绕太阳系质心运动22年周期及其与太阳活动的联系

对于太阳活动22年周期的成因机制长期存在着争论.本文借助于行星会合指数以及开普勒第三定律,对太阳绕太阳系质心运动周期进行了分析计算.结果发现,太阳绕太阳系质心运动存在22.1826年显著周期,这与太阳磁场变化的22.20年周期相吻合.并从太阳系角动量守恒的角度解释了两者之间的成因联系:在太阳绕太阳系质心运动的准22年周期中,太阳系质心与太阳质心逐步接近而后逐步分离.当两个质心之间的距离接近零的时候,太阳轨道角动量与自转角动量叠加,会导致太阳自转角速度的加快;当两个质心之间的距离逐渐远离的时候,则导致太阳自转角速度的减慢.这可能是引发太阳活动和太阳磁场变化的原因.这一新认识为太阳活动准22年周期成因机制的解释提供了新的线索和依据.     

Modeling of the solar activity double cycle using dynamical systems

The generation and evolution of the Sun’s magnetic field and other stars is usually related to the dynamo mechanism. This mechanism is based on the consideration of the joint influence of the α effect and differential rotation. Dynamo sources can be located at different depths of the convection zone and can have different intensities. Based on such a system, the dynamical system in the case of the stellar dynamo in a two-layer medium has been constructed with regard to meridional fluxes in order to model the double cycle that corresponds to the simultaneous presence of 22-year and quasi-biennial magnetic field oscillations. It has been indicated that the regime of mixed oscillations can originate because a dynamo wave moves oppositely to the meridional flows in the upper layer of the convection zone. This results in the deceleration of the toroidal field propagation and in the generation of slow oscillations. In deeper layers, the directions of a dynamo wave and meridional flows coincide with each other, as a result of which fast magnetic fields originate. Therefore, the total contribution of two oscillations with different frequencies corresponds to the appearance of quasi-biennial cycles against 22-year cycles. It has been indicated that the beating regime, which can be related to the secular oscillations of solar magnetic activity, originates in the system when the meridional flows are weak.     

First solar-terrestrial storms in cycle 24 of solar activity

The dynamics of the occurrence frequency and intensity of solar-terrestrial storms at the current solar cycle (cycle 24) onset (2007–2011) is considered. The storms were identified based on the moving semidiurnal average planetary index of activity, beginning from Ap* ≥ 30. It has been established that 12, 11, and 2 only moderate storms (Ap* = 30–49), which were randomly distributed during the year, were successively observed in the first three years. After a prolonged period without storms (August 2009–March 2010), a series of storms with mixed or only moderate activity, which were regularly distributed over the seasons (ecliptic longitudes) from April to August, started appearing beginning from the storm of April 1–6, 2010. This period followed the tendency toward the transformation of the slowly rotating four-sector structure (Large-Scale Open Solar Magnetic Field, LOSMF) from the two-sector structure (March 2010). The first storm in the new cycle (April 2010) was very powerful and originated owing to the successive destabilization of the complex of two magnetic filamentary ropes. It is interesting that the origination of a new LOSMF sector was associated with a 27-day interval, during which thermal neutrons appeared at Kamchatka and volcanoes erupted in Iceland, and a strong earthquake occurred in March 2011 in Japan when the Earth was located precisely in this sector.     

Certain regularities of solar activity variations during the 11-year cycle

The relationships between a number of the main characteristic parameters of the cycle—amplitude, half-width, and growth phase duration—and the approximation parameters, which make it possible to estimate the average behavior of 11-year activity, have been derived based on the obtained analytical representations of the regularities in the solar activity variations during the cycle. Quasibiennial variations proceeding against a background of the cycle are distinctly associated with the solar magnetic field structure and the structure representation variations in the corona and in the flux of the solar neutrino radiation. This makes it possible to state that all these processes are parts of the common physical mechanism of solar variability.     

On the prediction of solar activity using different neural network models

Accurate prediction of ionospheric parameters is crucial for telecommunication companies. These parameters rely strongly on solar activity. In this paper, we analyze the use of neural networks for sunspot time series prediction. Three types of models are tested and experimental results are reported for a particular sunspot time series: the IR5 index.     

SAR arc occurrence frequency during cycle 23 of solar activity

The occurrence frequency of SAR arcs during 1997–2006 has been analyzed based on the photometric observations at the Yakutsk meridian (Maimaga station, corrected geomagnetic coordinates: 57° N, 200° E). SAR arcs appeared in 114 cases (～500 h) during ～370 nights of observations (～3170 h). The occurrence frequency of SAR arcs increases to 27% during the growth phase of solar activity and has a clearly defined maximum ～36% at a decline of cycle 23. The SAR arc registration frequency corresponds to the variations in geomagnetic activity in this solar cycle. The dates, UT, and geomagnetic latitudes of photometric observations are presented for 1997–2006.     

Cosmic ray modulation during the solar activity growth phase of cycle 24

Recent years allowed us to study long-term variations in the cosmic ray (CR) intensity at an unusually deep solar activity (SA) minimum between cycles 23 and 24 and during the SA growth phase in cycle 24, which was the cycle when SA was the lowest for the epoch of regular ground-based CR observations since 1951. The intensity maximum, the value of which depends on the particle energy, was observed in CR variations during the period of an unusually prolonged SA minimum: the CR density during the aformentioned period (2009) is higher than this density at previous CR maxima in cycles 19–23 for low-energy particles (observed on spacecraft and in the stratosphere) and medium-energy particles (observed with neutron monitors). After 2009 CR modulation at the SA growth phase was much weaker over three years (2010–2012) than during the corresponding SA growth periods in the previous cycles. The possible causes of this anomaly in CR variations, which are related to the CR residual modulation value at a minimum between cycles 23 and 24 and to variations in SA characteristics during this period, were examined. The contribution of different solar magnetic field characteristics and indices, taking into account sporadic solar activity, has been estimated.     

Sudden ionospheric disturbances and flare activity in the course of the solar cycle no 20

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Optical observations of large-scale undulations in the 23rd cycle of solar activity

A statistical analysis of observations of large-scale undulations during the 23rd cycle of solar activity was performed using optical data from two stations: Tixie (71.6°N, 128.9°E) and Zhigansk (66.8°N, 123.4°E). The total number of events recorded was 54 (43 events at Tixie and 11 at Zhigansk). The complete list of observed events is presented. The occurrence frequency of eveningside (17–23 LT) undulations during the solar activity growth (1999) and decline (2003–2005) phases tends to increase. Large-scale undulations were shown to be generated both on the equatorward boundary of the diffuse auroral zone and inside the diffuse zone, which does not necessarily occur during magnetic storms.     

Heavy metals in the hydrological cycle: Trends and explanation

This paper reviews the major sources and transport characteristics of heavy metals in the hydrological cycle. It is demonstrated that heavy metal releases to the environment have changed from 19th and early 20th century production-related activities to consumption-oriented factors in more recent times. The relative roles of particle size, sorption and desorption processes, partitioning and the chemical speciation of heavy metals on fine sediments are identified to understand the likely fate of heavy metals released into fluvial systems. It is argued that the spatial and temporal distribution of heavy metals in the river corridor depends not only on an understanding of metal solubility and speciation, but also on an understanding of sediment dynamics which control, for example, floodplain alluviation and the accumulation of metals in the bottom sediments of contaminated rivers, lakes and reservoirs. Existing long- and short-term records are examined to identify the current state of knowledge about the factors which affect heavy metal releases into aquatic environments. With limited exceptions, it is shown that few long-term studies of trends in heavy metal transport are available although, for some major rivers, limited data on trends in metal concentration exists. Palaeolimnological reconstruction techniques, based on an analysis of lake and reservoir sediments, are identified as a possible means of supplementing monitored records of heavy metal transport. Although numerous studies have suggested that trends in atmospheric contamination, mining and urbanization may be identified in the bottom sediment record, other research has shown that the radionuclide-based chronology and the heavy metal distribution within the sediment are more likely to be a function of post-depositional remobilization than the history of metal loading to the basin. Despite these limitations, it is shown that the incorporation of reservoir bottom sediment analysis into a heavy metal research programme, based in river corridors of Midland England, provides an opportunity to identify and quantify the relative contribution of point and non-point contributions to the heavy metal budget and to relate trends in metal contamination to specific periods of catchment disturbance.     

Correlation between tropical cyclones and magnetic storms during cycle 23 of solar activity

The correlation between cyclic (11-year) variations in geomagnetic activity and tropical cyclogenesis during the completed solar activity cycle (cycle 23, 1996–2006) is studied. The total number of the semidiurnal intervals, with the mean values of the planetary a _p index not less than 40, for each year and the annual number of cyclones, regardless of their intensity, are used as the characteristics. The correlation coefficients r are calculated for each of the following four cyclogenesis regions: the Atlantic, northeastern and central Pacific, northwestern Pacific, and water areas of oceans and seas in the Southern Hemisphere. The conclusion that the correlation exists between magnetic storms and tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, obtained earlier by Ivanov [2006] on the basis of the data for 1996–2005, is confirmed. It has been found that the linear correlation coefficient r changed in different regions from positive to negative values: 0.55, 0, ?0.50, and ?0.50, respectively.     

Cosmic rays during great geomagnetic storms in cycle 23 of solar activity

Variations in the cosmic ray intensity (specifically, Forbush effects) and in the geomagnetic cutoff rigidity planetary system during powerful geomagnetic disturbances in cycle 23 were studied based on worldwide station network data by the global spectrographic survey method. The cosmic ray variation spectra during these periods and the spectral indices of these variations when the spectrum was approximated by the power function of the particle rigidity varying from 10 to 50 GV during different Forbush effect development phases are presented. It was indicated that the spectral indices of cosmic ray variations during spectrum approximation by the power function of the particle rigidity are larger during the maximal modulation phase than during the cosmic ray intensity decline and recovery phases. The fact that the amplitude of the second harmonic of the cosmic ray pitch angle anisotropy did not increase on November 20, 2003, confirms that the Earth fell into a Sun-independent spheromark magnetic cloud. The increased amplitudes of the second harmonic of the cosmic ray pitch angle anisotropy during other Forbush effects in July 2000, March–April 2001, October 2003, and November 2004 indicate that the Earth was in the coronal mass ejection region, in which the interplanetary magnetic field structure was loop-like during these periods.     

地震偏移成像不确定性分析初探

勘探地球物理领域存在大量宏观动力学过程的物理数学表达及尚待深入探索的不确定性事实,其中一类是源自对偶量的不可交换性或不可对易性.本文从地震偏移成像中的不确定性分析入手,探讨偏移成像中受到波场延拓过程不确定性的影响.文中给出了若干深度偏移算法对Marmousi模型的偏移不确定度分布表达及图像显示;文中还对若干波场延拓方法,从不确定性估计的角度进行了比较.笔者认为对应用技术领域中的宏观不确定性分析,将有益于深化对宏观动力学过程的理性认识,也为偏移算法评价提供一种途径;重要的是,进行不确定性分析将有利于把握所用偏移算法的不确定度分布,继而有针对性地采取相应的改善措施,以期提高算法的整体确定性程度.     

Beginning of the new solar cycle (cycle 24) in the large-scale open solar magnetic field

It is proposed to determined minimums of the 11-year solar cycles based on a minimal flux of the large-scale open solar magnetic field. The minimal fluxes before the finished cycle 23 (Carrington rotation CR 1904) and the started cycle 24 (CR 2054, April 2007) were equal to 1.8 × 10²² and 1.2 × 10²² μs, respectively. The long-term tendency toward an approach to a deep minimum of solar activity is confirmed. On the assumption that magnetic flux variations from minimums to maximums are proportional to each other, the anticipated value of the maximal Wolf number during cycle 24 is estimated as W _max = 80.     

Ionospheric response to geomagnetic disturbances in the north-eastern region of Asia during the minimum of 23rd cycle of solar activity

We present the results of studies of the subauroral and mid-latitude ionosphere variations in the north-eastern region of Asia. We used the data from network of vertical and oblique-incidence sounding ionosondes and optical measurements. Long-term experiments on the radio paths Magadan–Irkutsk and Norilsk–Irkutsk were carried out within the period 2005–2007. Vertical sounding stations operated in standard regime. Observation of airglow near Irkutsk was provided by the zenith photometer that measured intensities of 557.7 and 630.0 nm atomic oxygen emissions. The results may be summarized as follows. (1) Large daytime negative disturbances are observed during the main and recovery phases mainly at high latitudes, whereas the positive disturbances observed during the main phase at mid latitudes. The disturbances changed their sign between Yakutsk and Irkutsk. (2) During the main and recovery storm phases the fall of foF2 associated with the equatorward wall of the main ionospheric trough is observed in the afternoon and evening. (3) Fluctuations of the electron density more intensive at mid latitudes during the storm main phase are observed during all considered periods. They are classed as traveling ionospheric disturbances (TID). Such sharp gradients of electron density are responsible for the strong changes in the characteristics of the radio wave propagation, particularity MOF. (4) A large-scale ionospheric disturbance is noted at the meridional chain of ionosonds in December 2006 as the sharp increase of foF2. It appears in the evening in the minimum of D_st at high latitude and propagate to equator. (5) A maximum of 630 nm emission above Irkutsk corresponds to the foF2 increase. (6) The obtained experimental data on the net of vertical and oblique-incidence sounding with high time resolution show that such net is the effective facility to study the conditions of the radio wave propagation and can be used for the diagnostic of the ionosphere.     

Standard prediction of solar cycles

To make a long-term prediction of the solar cycle in a standard way (GOST 25645.302-83), it is necessary to know the instant of the activity minimum onset, the determination of which is difficult during the decline stage of the previous cycle. The dependence of the long-term prediction error on the time of shift (t) relative to the solar activity minimum instant (i.e., the situation when a certain time before the minimum onset, rather than the time of this minimum, is the initial point of calculations) has been studied. It has been indicated that one should not know the exact time of the activity minimum onset in order to make prediction according to GOST, and such a prediction can be performed with an approximately identical error if the lead time is t ～ 1 year and more relative to the activity minimum onset. An analysis of the dependence of prognostic W _max values on t for cycles 18–23 indicated that prognostic W _max values are overestimated at small (to ～ 1 year) uncertainties in the time of activity minimum onset. It has been obtained that W _max = 96 ± 13 for cycle 24 on the assumption that this cycle began in April 2007.