Analysis of recharge conceptualization in inverse groundwater modelling

ABSTRACT

This study presents a systematic illustration quantifying how misleading the calibration results of a groundwater simulation model can be when recharge rates are considered as the model parameters to be estimated by inverse modelling. Three approaches to recharge estimation are compared: autocalibration (Model 1), the empirical return coefficient method (Model 2), and distributed hydrological modelling using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT (Model 3). The methodology was applied in the Dehloran Plain, western Iran, using the MODFLOW modular flow simulator and the PEST method for autocalibration. The results indicate that, although Model 1 performed the best in simulating water levels at observation wells in the calibration stage, it did not perform satisfactorily in real future scenarios. Model 3, with SWAT-based recharge rates, performed better than the other models in the validation stage. By not evaluating the model performance solely on calibration results, we demonstrate the relative significance of using more accurate recharge estimates when calibrating groundwater simulation models.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis; ASSOCIATE EDITOR M. Besbes     

Changes in Projected Spatial and Seasonal Groundwater Recharge in the Upper Colorado River Basin

The Colorado River is an important source of water in the western United States, supplying the needs of more than 38 million people in the United States and Mexico. Groundwater discharge to streams has been shown to be a critical component of streamflow in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), particularly during low‐flow periods. Understanding impacts on groundwater in the basin from projected climate change will assist water managers in the region in planning for potential changes in the river and groundwater system. A previous study on changes in basin‐wide groundwater recharge in the UCRB under projected climate change found substantial increases in temperature, moderate increases in precipitation, and mostly periods of stable or slight increases in simulated groundwater recharge through 2099. This study quantifies projected spatial and seasonal changes in groundwater recharge within the UCRB from recent historical (1950 to 2015) through future (2016 to 2099) time periods, using a distributed‐parameter groundwater recharge model with downscaled climate data from 97 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate projections. Simulation results indicate that projected increases in basin‐wide recharge of up to 15% are not distributed uniformly within the basin or throughout the year. Northernmost subregions within the UCRB are projected an increase in groundwater recharge, while recharge in other mainly southern subregions will decline. Seasonal changes in recharge also are projected within the UCRB, with decreases of 50% or more in summer months and increases of 50% or more in winter months for all subregions, and increases of 10% or more in spring months for many subregions.     

半湿润流域水文模型比较与集合预报

选择7种水文模型分别在中国北部3个半湿润流域做模拟对比,分析不同水文模型在各流域的适用性,并使用贝叶斯模型平均法对不同模型集合,比较各种集合方法的优势,研究贝叶斯模型平均法的应用效果.研究结果表明,以蓄满产流模式为主的模型在半湿润流域应用效果较好,针对不同流域特点对传统模型进行改进可以提高模拟精度.贝叶斯模型平均法能提供较好的确定性预报结果和概率预报结果,仅对少数模拟效果好的模型进行集合,并不能有效提高预报精度,适当增加参与集合的模型数量能使贝叶斯模型平均法更好地综合各模型优势,提高预报结果的精度.     

应力释放模型在青藏高原地区的应用

介绍了应力释放模型、耦合应力释放模型及其在时、空两个方面经过改进的模型。利用改进后的模型研究了青藏高原地区的地震活动,结果显示,在青藏高原地区改进后的应力释放模型仍然适用,并且改进后的耦合应力释放模型要优于简单的应力释放模型,其预测地震的效能和精度都要优于泊松模型。     

Effects of Three-dimensional Inhomogeneous Viscoelastic Structures on Postseismic Surface Deformations Associated with the Great 1946 Nankaido Earthquake

—We investigated the effects of various viscoelastic structures on postseismic surface displacement and principal strain fields associated with the great 1946 Nankaido earthquake, which occurred on the plate boundary between the subducting Philippine Sea plate and the continental Eurasian plate. For this purpose, we constructed two kinds of three-dimensional structural models using the finite element method one is the Layered Model, in which a semi-infinite Maxwell viscoelastic material is underlying an elastic layer, and the other is the more realistic Plate Model, in which the three-dimensional configuration of the subducted Philippine Sea plate is taken into account. We also considered two cases with different thicknesses of the elastic layer (50 and 33km) for the respective models. The difference between the two models in postseismic surface deformations is significant for the case with the thinner elastic layer. In this case the horizontal surface displacement and principal strain for the Layered Model is two to three times larger than those for the Plate Model. Downward surface deformation tends to be dominant for the Layered Model, while the change in the pattern for the Plate Model is less marked. The spatial extent of uplift and subsidence for the Plate Model is broader than that for the Layered Model. Postseismic vertical displacements in Shikoku were found to be strongly dependent on the viscoelastic structures. From these results, we suggest that the estimates of the viscosity of the uppermost mantle, interplate coupling, and the area and the amount of after-slip following the 1946 Nankaido earthquake, which have been estimated based on simple layered viscoelastic models, should be re-evaluated using realistic three-dimensionally heterogeneous viscoelastic structures.     

性能增强再生混凝土框架中节点地震损伤评估

通过对3个足尺性能增强再生混凝土框架中节点进行低周反复加载试验,按照传统延性损伤模型（单参数）、改进的Park-Ang损伤模型（双参数）对其损伤演化与累积进行分析:各试件特征位移等于20 mm时,试件已经出现损伤,但按照延性损伤模型计算结果为负;当特征位移超过100 mm时,改进的Park-Ang损伤模型计算结果表明各试件已经完全破坏,无法继续承载,但试件实际结果却仍表现出一定的承载能力与耗能能力。因而有必要对前述损伤模型进行修正,使其能够适用于性能增强再生混凝土结构之中。基于前述试验结果,针对改进的Park-Ang损伤模型,提出并拟合了纤维项系数、位移项系数和能量项系数3种修正系数,并建立了相应的修正的Park-Ang损伤模型。最后,利用所提出的损伤模型,以HF-RAC2为例进行了损伤指标误差分析,结果表明:平均误差在6%以内,即:所提出双参数损伤模型能够应用于性能增强再生混凝土框架节点地震损伤与评估分析之中。     

结合温度因子估算太湖叶绿素a含量的神经网络模型

神经网络方法估算复杂水体水质参数的优越性已经得到证实.基于太湖水体实测叶绿素a浓度,利用MODIS 250m影像和反演得到的水温数据建立了估算太湖水体叶绿素a含量的两个单隐层BP神经网络模型:NN1模型不含温度因子、NN2模型包含温度因子,采用Levenberg-Marquardt算法训练网络,利用初期终止方法提岛网络泛化能力,均取得了较高估算精度,其中包含温度因了的反演模型精度稍有提高,但不显著.     

On results of the surface wave analyses in poroelastic media by means of the Simple Mixture Model and the Biot model

This note is devoted to an overview of the results on the number, velocity and attenuation of surface waves in two-component saturated poroelastic media. The author's numerical results which have been obtained using the Simple Mixture Model are compared to some results of other authors who carried out either an analysis by means of the classical Biot model for poroelastic media or experiments. It is shown that the Simple Mixture Model is a simplification of the Biot model. Due to its simpler form the Simple Mixture Model is more suitable for a complex analysis which depends on several parameters. Thus, the Simple Mixture Model is the only model for which, simultaneously, either the dependence on the frequency, ω, and the dependence on the bulk permeability, π (boundary porous medium/vacuum) or the dependence on the frequency, ω, and the dependence on the surface permeability, α (boundary porous medium/fluid) has been considered.     

Changes in the wind-wave field and related salt-marsh lateral erosion: inferences from the evolution of the Venice Lagoon in the last four centuries

Salt marshes are crucially important ecosystems at the boundary between the land and the sea, that are experiencing significant losses worldwide mainly dictated by the erosion of their margins. Improving our understanding of the mechanisms controlling marsh edge erosion is a key step to address conservation issues and salt-marsh response to changes in the environmental forcing. Here we have employed a complete, coupled Wind-Wave Tidal Model (WWTM) to analyse the temporal evolution of the wave field, and in particular of the mean wave-power density, in the Venice Lagoon over the past four centuries (from 1611 to 2012). We have then related wave-field changes to the observed erosion patterns determined by comparing recent aerial photographs (1978–2010) and historical bathymetric data. The results of our analyses from the Venice Lagoon show that, while wave-fields did not significantly change from 1611 to 1901, a rapid increase in wave-power densities occurred in the last century. This is suggested to depend on the positive feedback between relevant morphological evolutions and changes in the wave field, both influenced by natural forcing and anthropogenic pressures. We also emphasize the existence of a strong positive linear relationship between the volumetric marsh erosion rate and mean wave-power density. We thus suggest that relating salt-marsh lateral erosion rates to properly computed mean wave-power densities provides a valuable tool to address long-term tidal morphodynamics. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

1997年以来巴颜喀拉块体周缘强震之间的黏弹性触发研究

2021年5月22日在青海玛多发生M_W7.4地震,为了探究玛多地震的不同滑动模型对周围地区及断层应力的加卸载作用,本文首先以GNSS数据为约束,结合中国地震局地质研究所公布的玛多地震同震滑动模型（模型A）断层面几何结构反演获得同震滑动模型（模型C）,再分别利用模型A、模型B（USGS）、模型C计算玛多地震对周围地区及断层的应力加卸载作用。结果显示：① 模型C矩震级为M_W7.46,最大滑动量为3.39 m,主体破裂位于0—10 km深度范围,整体破裂东侧大于西侧,滑动分布相对于模型A也更加均匀平滑,反演效果较好;② 不同模型计算的应力分布基本相同,沿破裂段同震库仑应力加载区域面积随着深度的增加而增加,且在发震断裂带西端、东端分别各有两处明显的库仑应力加载区域,在昆仑山口—江错断裂东、西段、甘孜—玉树断裂、东昆仑断裂东段、玛多—甘德断裂、清水河断裂中、西段、达日断裂西段均产生了明显的应力加载,但模型B计算结果有所差异,昆仑山口—江错断裂中段处于应力卸载状态,震后10年断层应力状态变化不大,但清水河断裂东段在震后应力调整中卸载作用较为明显,地震危险性降低;③ 为了探究强震对玛多地震的影响,本文分别计算了2008年汶川地震以后巴颜喀拉地块M≥7.0强震同震及震后效应对玛多地震的应力加卸载,结果表明所有强震均对玛多地震有应力加载作用,但累积库仑应力并未超过触发阈值。

     

Empirical models to identify mechanisms driving reductions in tissue mercury concentration during culture of farmed southern bluefin tuna Thunnus maccoyii

Two empirical models are presented to elucidate the mechanisms driving reductions in the mercury concentration of southern bluefin tuna (SBT) during culture. Model 1 predicts temporal fluctuations in mercury concentration in response to growth dilution. Model 2 predicts the combined effects of growth dilution and linear mercury accumulation. Model 2 was found to be the more accurate model. Over a typical farming period of 136 days, growth dilution resulted in a reduction in mean mercury concentration of SBT edible tissues from 0.51 mg/kg down to 0.33 mg/kg. Extended culture beyond 136 days resulted in an increase in mercury concentration due to the combined effects of mercury accumulation and seasonal lipid depletion. Results indicate that under current industry practice, cultured SBT can be consumed twice as frequently as that of wild caught SBT while maintaining total dietary mercury intake below national recommendations.     

Use of RORB and SWMM models to an urban catchment in Singapore

The Runoff Routing Model (RORB) and the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) are evaluated for the purpose of stormwater drainage design and management in an urban catachment in Singapore although the full capability of the SWMM model has not been utilized. Data preparation for testing the models are highlighted and sample runs are carried out for an actual storm event. Limitations and constraints of the parameter estimation are discussed. Comparison of the runoff results are made between RORB and SWMM models. Both the models can be incorporated without much difficulty to simulate urban drainage system in Singapore.     

云南洱海桃溪河口净化工程的设计思路及初步净化效果

以太湖上游西苕溪流域为研究对象,通过分布式水文模型HEC-HMS模拟次降雨洪水过程:采用可视化数据存储系统HEC-DSS建立水文气象数据库,利用Geodatabase地理数据库技术集成流域自然属性数据库,通过距离平方倒数法对雨量数据进行空间插值,SCS曲线数法计算水文损失,运动波法计算直接径流与河道洪水演进,选用基流指数退水法模拟流域基流,并对模型中水库模拟部分进行适当修正.经模型校验,模拟结果表明,计算流量与观测流量拟合较好,效率系数大于0.8,洪峰流量误差低于4%,峰现时间误差低于2 h,该模型在土地利用变化对洪水水文要素的影响研究方面有较好的应用前景.     

月平滑太阳黑子相对数的预报

建国以来,不少天文工作者在太阳活动长期预报、中期和短期预报方面作了大量工作,但是,太阳活动的一至几年的中长期预报却很少有人涉足。本文试图用门限自回归模型和二次曲线方法,探讨时间长度为一年的月平滑黑子相对数的预报。并给出两种方法的综合预报结果。     

月平滑太阳黑子相对数的预报

建国以来,不少天文工作者在太阳活动长期预报、中期和短期预报方面作了大量工作,但是,太阳活动的一至几年的中长期预报却很少有人涉足。本文试图用门限自回归模型和二次曲线方法,探讨时间长度为一年的月平滑黑子相对数的预报。并给出两种方法的综合预报结果。     

A new method for quantification of liquid saturation in 2D translucent porous media systems using light transmission

Five physically based models for predicting liquid saturation from light transmission in 2D laboratory systems containing translucent porous media were developed and tested (Models A–E). The models were based upon various simplifying assumptions concerning pore geometry, wettability, and drainage. Models A–D assumed uniform-sized pores, and liquid saturation was an explicit function of light transmission. Model E considered a distribution of pore sizes whose drainage characteristics were inferred from the Laplace equation. Mass balances were calculated using data from drainage and infiltration experiments, in four textures of silica sand with water as the fluid. Model E performed the best overall, with systematic errors of less than 2.3% saturation. Model E represents a robust easily applied new method for the determination of liquid saturation by light transmission. The other four models are presented, and compared, for reasons of historical interest and to investigate the impact of the various simplifying assumptions.     

On time-step in structural seismic response analysis under ground displacement/acceleration

There are two models in use today to analyze structural responses when subjected to earthquake ground motions,the Displacement Input Model(DIM)and the Acceleration Input Model(AIM).The time steps used in direct integration methods for these models are analyzed to examine the suitability of DIM.Numerical results are presented and show that the time-step for DIM is about the same as for AIM,and achieves the same accuracy.This is contrary to previous research that reported that there are several sources of ...     

Kalman filter estimation model in flood forecasting

Elementary precipitation and runoff estimation problems associated with hydrologic data collection networks are formulated in conjunction with the Kalman Filter Estimation Model. Examples involve the estimation of runoff using data from a single precipitation station and also from a number of precipitation stations. The formulations demonstrate the role of state-space, measurement, and estimation equations of the Kalman Filter Model in flood forecasting. To facilitate the formulation, the unit hydrograph concept and antecedent precipitation index is adopted in the estimation model. The methodology is then applied to estimate various flood events in the Carnation Creek of British Columbia.     

Tide-induced groundwater head fluctuation in coastal multi-layered aquifer systems with a submarine outlet-capping

This paper considered the tide-induced head fluctuations in two coastal multi-layered aquifer systems. Model I comprises two semi-permeable layers and a confined aquifer between them. Model II is a four-layered aquifer system including an unconfined aquifer, an upper semi-permeable layer, a confined aquifer and a lower semi-permeable layer. In each model, the submarine outlet of the confined aquifer is covered with a skin layer (“outlet-capping”). Analytical solutions of the two models are derived. In both models, leakages of the semi-permeable layers decrease the tidal head fluctuations. The outlet-capping reduces the aquifer’s head fluctuation by a constant factor and shifts the phase by a positive constant. The solution to Model II explains the inconsistency between the relatively small lag time and the strong amplitude damping effect of the tidal head fluctuations reported by Trefry and Johnston [Ground Water 1998;36:427–33] near the Port Adelaide River, Australia.     

Evaluation of mixing schemes in the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) in the tropical Indian Ocean

Ocean Dynamics - The performance of three different mixing schemes implemented in the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM), namely, K-Profile Parameterization (KPP), Goddard Institute of Space...