东莞市工作区电力系统抗震可靠性分析

首先介绍了电力系统震害预测的方法,其中包括变电站室外内高压电气设备的分析方法,主控室内主要设施的分析方法,变电站子系统的抗震可靠性分析方法和整个电力系统分析方法以及功能损失评价。以东莞市工作区电力系统震害预测为例,通过以上逐级分析,最终给出了电力系统各项震害预测结果和综合评价,在此基础上给出相应的加固改造建议。     

太湖流域水文遥测系统可靠性分析

水文遥测系统工作制式不同,系统的验收标准也不同,水文遥测系统的组网结构不同,系统可靠性的分析也不同。本文用概率方法对太湖流域水文遥测系统的可靠性进行探讨,对带存储功能的应答系统采用系统可靠度衡量,而不采用月平均数据畅通率衡量;同时讨论不同的系统结构对可靠性的影响,这种以概率统计的方法分析水文遥测系统的可靠性,对水文遥测系统建设的验收标准制定和水文遥测系统结构设计具有重要意义。     

1990s长江流域降水趋势分析

依据国家气象局提供的实测月降水和日降水资料,运用Mann-Kendall(M-K)非参数检验法验证了降水趋势,并通过空间插补法,由点扩展到面,分析了1990s长江流域降水变化特征,发现1990s长江流域降水变化以降水在时间和空间分布上的集中度的增加为主要特点:时间上,年降水的增加趋势以冬季1月和夏季6月降水的集中增加为主;一日降水量大于等于50mm的暴雨日数和暴雨量在1990s也有了较明显的增加.空间上,年降水、夏季降水、冬季降水的增加都以中下游区的增加为主,尤其以鄱阳湖水系、洞庭湖水系的降水增加为主.1990s长江流域春季和秋季降水的减少以5月和9月两个汛期月份的降水减少为主,除金沙江水系和洞庭湖水系等少数地区外,流域大部分地区降水呈减少趋势.上述1990s出现的降水趋势明显与近年来全球变暖背景下长江流域各地区不同的温度及水循环变异有关.     

SOMATOM DR3型CT扫描系统主控计算机可靠性分析及故障排除

ＳＯＭＡＴＯＭ ＤＲ３型ＣＴ扫描系统在主控计算机为ＰＤＰ１１／４４小型计算机。系统的设计思想是采取以主控计算机为核心进行控制，由于ＰＤＰ１１／４４系列小型计算机具有单总线结构，并有较强的中断处理能力，因此在整个系统中它能很好地进行扫描启动、控制、实时数据采集、图象重建和管理、图象存贮和传送等，并完成主操作台与独立诊断台任务的分时处理，若主控计算机发生故障将对整修系统产生很大的影响。本文介绍了ＳＯＭ     

基础隔震结构抗震可靠度简化分析方法

选用胡聿贤平稳地震地面运动模型作为基础隔震结构的随机地震动输入,采用Bouc-Wen模型描述隔震结构的层间滞变位移,将滞变体系动力特性矩阵随机等效线性化,并建立等价线性状态方程。引入左右特征向量系,对振动微分方程进行解耦,推导了基础隔震结构随机地震响应的统计矩解析解。采用变形失效准则,定义了上部结构和隔震层的功能状态极限函数。在此基础上,采用首次超越破坏模型,基于Possion分布假设和串联系统可靠度模型,建立了从整体上评价基础隔震体系抗震可靠度的简化分析方法。最后,通过一个基础隔震框架结构计算实例,说明了这种方法的运用。     

基于组件式GIS的太湖流域洪涝灾害评估系统

太源流域洪涝灾害评估系统是太湖流域防汛决策支持系统的一个重要组成部分,对准、及时地预测预报和评估太湖流域洪涝灾情,为防汛抗洪、抢险救灾提供科学依据具有重要的意义,本文从GIS应用开发的角度,系统介绍了GIS软件的技术体系,系统的技术框架,空间数据库的特点和作用以及系统的主要功能。     

地电场观测可靠性分析——基于瓜州台的解析研究

应用时间序列的时频域分析方法处理了瓜州台两种地电场仪器型号的长程观测数据,分析了该台地电场观测质量和数据可靠性。结果如下:(1)同方向长短极距测道观测数据的相关系数R基本上均优于0.9,差值D优于1 mV/km,表明该台长短极距测道观测的地电场变化高度吻合;(2)计算了2015年2月和2019年2月两种仪器观测的地电场最大日变化幅度A,不同仪器之间不同时段的长、短极距测道A的比值接近1;(3)2014—2016年该台SN向、EW向观测数据的FFT频谱均显示12 h、8 h、24 h的优势周期,与中国大陆地电场日变化的优势周期一致。上述结果表明:瓜州台地电场观测资料可靠准确,能满足对地震预测和地球电磁场监测及研究的需求。     

基于性能的基础隔震钢筋混凝土框剪结构的倒塌可靠度分析

利用基于性能的结构可靠度分析方法,对基础隔震钢筋混凝土框剪结构进行分析研究。选取20条实际地震动记录,以0.2g为步长对结构地震动参数PGA进行调幅后,建立了140个结构-地震动样本空间。选取上部结构的最大层间位移角、隔震层位移为量化指标,对每一个样本进行动力非线性时程分析后,将结构响应进行统计得到结构在各地震动强度下超越极限破坏状态的概率,将其绘制成基础隔震钢筋混凝土框剪结构的易损性曲线并利用整体可靠度方法分析结构发生倒塌的可靠度指标。该方法直观地反映了结构发生倒塌的概率,为结构的地震损失评估提供依据。     

考虑失效相关的电力系统抗震可靠性研究

本文根据电力系统的特点,对发电厂和供电系统分别提出了不同的系统可靠性模型,并对各单体之间失效的相关性也进行了较深入的探讨,同时编制了计算系统抗震可靠性的Ｍｏｎｔｅ Ｃａｒｌｏ法程序。     

重力式挡土墙结构体系可靠度的Monte Carlo模拟

建立了重力式挡土墙倾覆、基底滑移、地基承载力、墙体自身强度等几个失效模式的可靠度分析模型,采用逐步等效平面法计算结构体系的可靠度。假定设计参数为正态分布的随机变量,利用MATLAB软件的库函数normrnd实现随机样本的抽取。选择重力式挡土墙的实际算例对挡土墙改建后的几个失效模式及结构体系的可靠度进行分析,并与作者所做的其它理论分析结果进行了对比。数值模拟表明两种方法的结果能较好相符。     

城市供水管网在地震时的连通可靠性分析

考虑地震作用效应和管道抗力的随机特性,建立了埋地管道单元的概率预测模型,评估其在地震时的震害状态。把供水管网系统简化为边权有向网络图,通过Monte Carlo随机模拟过程,近似再现管网中各管段的破坏状态,进而分别结合图论理论方法和模糊关系矩阵法,对管网进行连通可靠性分析。由于Monte Carlo模拟算法是以管网各节点与水源点处于连通状态的近似频率计算来代替精确概率分析,为获得稳定的计算结果,对所用算例进行了5000次模拟。算例分析表明,基于图论方法和模糊关系矩阵法得到的管网连通可靠性结果基本相等。     

Implementing Integrated Catchment Management in the upper Limpopo River basin: A situational assessment

A three-phase study was initiated as a way to promote Integrated Catchment Management approaches in the Limpopo River basin. This paper presents the situational assessment, which should enable De Beers to understand how their Venetia Mine operations are located within a broader and highly dynamic socio-economic and ecohydrological landscape as it pertains to water risks. The second phase, Risk assessment, aims to develop conservation interventions in the identified areas; the third phase will develop mechanisms for implementing water stewardship schemes to mitigate the shared water risks.Analysis of the social-ecological system (hydrological, climatic, ecological, socio-economic and governance systems) of the Limpopo River basin indicates that the institutional arrangement of the Limpopo River basin is neither simple nor effective. The basin is rapidly approaching closure in the sense that almost all of the available supplies of water have already been allocated to existing water users. If the proposed ecological flow requirements were to be met for all of the tributaries, the basin would be ‘closed’. On-going and projected land use changes and water resources developments in the upper reaches of the basin, coupled with projected rainfall reductions and temperature increases, and allocation of the flows for the ecological reserve, are likely to further reduce downstream river flows. The coupled increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall is of great concern for everyone in the basin, especially the poorer communities, who rely on rain-fed agriculture for their livelihoods. Increased temperatures also lead to increased evaporation from reservoirs and therefore result in a decrease in water availability. This will lead to increased abstraction of groundwater, especially from alluvial aquifers, and consequently an increase in river transmission losses and a decrease in river flows.     

大跨度斜拉桥在随机地震激励下的动力可靠性分析

以随机振动理论为基础,以苏通长江公路大桥为背景,对超大跨度斜拉桥在随机地震荷载作用下的动力可靠度展开研究。根据结构随机振动分析得到的响应统计量,采用结构可靠度分析的JC法(一次二阶矩法)和首次超越破坏理论,分析苏通大桥主梁关键截面上正应力的动力可靠度,并评价结构的抗震性能,分析结果证明该结构可靠性满足桥梁抗震需求。计算结果可为大跨度斜拉桥抗震可靠性分析提供参考。     

A 50-year record of nitrate concentrations in the Slapton Ley Catchment,Devon, United Kingdom

Slapton Ley, a coastal lake, is the largest natural body of fresh water in south-west England. There was concern in the 1960s that the lake was becoming increasingly eutrophic. To quantify inputs of water, sediment and nutrients into the lake, Slapton Ley Field Centre initiated a programme of weekly water quality sampling in September 1970. Of all the chemical properties which have been measured over the decades, the nitrate record has been the subject of more research than any other. The weekly monitoring has been supplemented by research projects aimed at understanding aspects of processes and patterns of nitrate delivery to the stream network. Three aspects of the nitrate record are reviewed: short-term process dynamics; the annual cycle of influent streams and the lake itself; and long-term trends. In the first two decades of monitoring, there was increasing concern about a trend of rising nitrate concentrations, an issue in most lowland rivers in the United Kingdom at the time. In the 1990s, nitrate concentrations levelled off and then have fallen steadily in recent years. In relation to eutrophication, there are clear signs of improvement in the influent streams, but concerns remain about water quality in the lake itself.     

Multi-Constrained Catchment Scale Optimization of Groundwater Abstraction Using Linear Programming

Due to increasing water demands globally, freshwater ecosystems are under constant pressure. Groundwater resources, as the main source of accessible freshwater, are crucially important for irrigation worldwide. Over-abstraction of groundwater leads to declines in groundwater levels; consequently, the groundwater inflow to streams decreases. The reduction in baseflow and alteration of the streamflow regime can potentially have an adverse effect on groundwater-dependent ecosystems. A spatially distributed, coupled groundwater–surface water model can simulate the impacts of groundwater abstraction on aquatic ecosystems. A constrained optimization algorithm and a simulation model in combination can provide an objective tool for the water practitioner to evaluate the interplay between economic benefits of groundwater abstractions and requirements to environmental flow. In this study, a holistic catchment-scale groundwater abstraction optimization framework has been developed that allows for a spatially explicit optimization of groundwater abstraction, while fulfilling a predefined maximum allowed reduction of streamflow (baseflow [Q95] or median flow [Q50]) as constraint criteria for 1484 stream locations across the catchment. A balanced K-Means clustering method was implemented to reduce the computational burden of the optimization. The model parameters and observation uncertainties calculated based on Bayesian linear theory allow for a risk assessment on the optimized groundwater abstraction values. The results from different optimization scenarios indicated that using the linear programming optimization algorithm in conjunction with integrated models provides valuable information for guiding the water practitioners in designing an effective groundwater abstraction plan with the consideration of environmental flow criteria important for the ecological status of the entire system.     

基于区间方法的岩质边坡稳定性非概率可靠性分析

在综合分析岩土参数区间性的基础上,通过引入区间分析方法和非概率可靠性思想,建立岩质边坡稳定的非概率可靠性模型,并针对区间运算结果扩张问题,引入区间截断法和区间优化法,对边坡非概率可靠性指标进行较为精确的求解。然后,以湖北某岩质高边坡为实例,进一步探讨了岩体参数变异性对岩质边坡稳定的非概率可靠性指标的影响规律。     

桁架式跨河管架的优化设计及地震可靠性评价

在管道穿跨越工程中,桁架式跨河管架是一种常见形式.本文在结构优化设计中分别对矩形桁架结构和倒三角形桁架结构两种方案进行优化,并对优化结果进行了比较分析,确定了结构最优方案.通过模拟结构在地震作用下的响应对结构的抗震性能进行了分析,并通过可靠性分析评价了结构的抗震可靠度.结果表明:适当增加结构高度和减小结构宽度对结构有利;结构的总重量随杆件截面尺寸的减小而迅速降低,10次优化循环后即从54 t降至24 t左右;三角形桁架比矩形桁架结构简单,重量减轻36％;可靠性分析表明结构的可靠度为99％.     

稳流源与地电阻率观测系统可靠性的关联

研究了稳流源对地电阻率观测系统可靠性的影响,从理论上分析了稳流源输出电流的稳定性与系统测量数据可靠性之间的联系;从技术上分析了用于稳流源的高频开关技术和多种可靠性技术对观测系统长期可靠的重要性。理论分析阐述了稳流源输出电流稳定的意义,新技术的采用促进了地电观测系统设计技术的提高。     

"人的可靠性分析"与地震监测预报

“人的可靠性分析”做为一门新兴学科越来越受到国际上广泛的重视。从“人的可靠性分析”的内涵、由来及其在地震监测预报中的重要性到建议立即开展专项研究的意义做了阐述。