我国两级阶梯地势的冰雹天气环境物理量特征

利用地面观测资料、探空资料以及石家庄多普勒天气雷达和饶阳双偏振雷达资料等,对2018年6月13日影响河北中南地区的一个长生命史超级单体风暴的环流背景、雷达观测特征等进行了分析。结果表明：(1)此超级单体发生在涡后横槽转竖的环流背景下。(2)风暴生命史长204 min,其中超级单体维持时间长达138 min,其间雷达最大反射率因子基本上维持在65 dBz以上。(3)中气旋深厚并强烈发展是超级单体发展和维持的重要动力机制。中气旋底高最低可达风暴底部,顶高变化幅度较小,低质心中气旋和高质心中气旋的形成和发展都可能引起地面降雹,降雹期间对应超级单体短暂减弱。(4)超级单体维持期间一直伴有气旋、反气旋涡旋对特征。超级单体的钩状回波特征明显,表现为典型的回波墙-弱回波区-悬挂回波的垂直结构;低层辐合、高层辐散,高空辐散大于低层辐合,有利于超级单体内部强烈的旋转上升运动;有明显的三体散射和旁瓣回波,三体散射最长超过60 km,持续时间长达150 min。(5)双偏振雷达探测的超级单体反射率因子≥55 dBz,对应位置差分反射率-0.5~0.5 dB,差分传播相移率仅1.5~2.0°/km,相关系数在0.75~0.92之间,表明超级单体内同时存在液滴和较大冰雹。

     

强对流天气的几个问题

强对流运动带来的灾害性天气,常给工农业、电讯、交通和人民生命财产造成重大损失。随着气象科学的发展,这些年来在强对流天气的研究上取得了一定进展,并发现了不少新问题。本文对其中几个问题,加以简单评述。 一、强对流天气的局地特征 对流性天气的最一般特征是发生雷暴。其中绝大多数是一般雷暴,其生命期只有半小时左右,但少数对流天气能在一定的环境条件下发展成强雷暴、强雹暴、强雨暴和强风暴等强对流天气。它们在层结分布上有明显的特征。     

A radar-based verification of precipitation forecast for local convective storms

Local flash flood storms with a rapid hydrological response are a real challenge for quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF). It is relevant to assess space domains, to which the QPF approaches are applicable. In this paper an attempt is made to evaluate the forecasting capability of a high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) model by means of area-related QPF verification. The results presented concern two local convective events, which occurred in the Czech Republic (CR) on 13 and 15 July 2002 and caused local flash floods. We used the LM COSMO model (Lokall Model of the COSMO consortium) adapted to the horizontal resolution of 2.8 km over a model domain covering the CR. The 18 h forecast of convective precipitation was verified by using radar rainfall totals adjusted to the measured rain gauge data. The grid point-related root mean square error (RMSE) value was calculated over a square around the grid point under the assumption that rainfall values were randomly distributed within the square. The forecast accuracy was characterized by the mean RMSE over the whole verification domain. We attempt to show a dependence of both the RMSE field and the mean RMSE on the square size. The importance of a suitable merger between the radar and rain gauge datasets is demonstrated by a comparison between the verification results obtained with and without the gauge adjustment. The application of verification procedure demonstrates uncertainties in the precipitation forecasts. The model was integrated with initial conditions shifted by 0.5° distances. The four verifications, corresponding to the shifts in the four directions, show differences in the resulting QPF, which depend on the size of verification area and on the direction of the shift.     

A four-dimensional variational system for skillful operational prediction of convective storms

正Forecasting convective storms using NWP models is an important goal and a highly active area of ongoing research.Skillful and reliable NWP of convective storms could allow for severe weather warnings with longer lead times,as operational forecasters begin to incorporate convective-scale forecasts into severe weather forecast operations(Stensrud et al.,2009,2013).This would then provide vulnerable individuals and industries with more time to seek shelter and/or mitigate     

对流性强风暴系统的螺旋度动力学研究

利用风暴尺度的数值模式ＡＲＰＳ成功地模拟了１９７７年５月２０日在美国Ｏｋｌａｈｏｍａ州Ｄｅｌ Ｃｉｔｙ的一次强对流风暴过程。其模拟结果与实际的观测非常接近，模式积分 ４０分钟，初始对流单体发生了分裂，产生了新的对流单体。原有对流单体在原地维持成熟的结构，表现出较强的稳定性，而分裂出的新单体在移动过程中，逐渐向成熟位相发展，并且又分裂出新的单体。利用模拟结果，着重讨论了风暴发展过程中螺旋度和超螺旋度的空间结构和时间演变特征，以及在强风暴系统的对流发展过程中的动力学作用。初始环境场的螺旋性结构有利于风暴的发展。在风暴发展阶段，低螺旋度有利于大尺度向对流尺度的能量串级，而在风暴成熟阶段，高螺旋度则有利于对流单体的能量维持，从而形成长生命周期的对流系统。在风暴的发展过程中，风暴流场结构具有向Ｂｅｌｔｒａｍｉ流结构的调整趋势，螺旋度向高值发展。超螺旋度在流体粘性作用的影响下，可反映出螺旋度密度空间积分的时间变化趋势，负的超螺旋度可使螺旋度增加。在对流风暴发展阶段，超螺旋度为负值，对流单体的结构螺旋性增强、螺旋度的增大，在风暴到达成熟阶段后，超螺旋度转为正值。因此，超螺旋度可用来标志对流风暴系统的成熟程度。     

Severe convective storms and associated phenomena in Hungary

Convective activity dominates the weather of Hungary in the summer. Especially during the first part of the summer, the frequency of severe thunderstorms grows and associated phenomena such as wind storms, hail, sometimes even tornadoes cause serious damage. In this paper, an overview of the severe thunderstorm situation in the Carpathian Basin is presented with a focus on the most frequent phenomena: squall lines. To understand the physical background of these kinds of severe thunderstorms, the terminology of convective components is introduced. Making use of case studies, the roles of convective components are shown for different types of thunderstorm systems. Case studies also show that most of the tornado events are associated with organized thunderstorm systems, especially prefrontal squall lines.     

A numerical study of the convective boundary layer

Computations of the buoyantly unstable Ekman layer are performed at low Reynolds number. The turbulent fields are obtained directly by solving the three-dimensional time-dependent Navier-Stokes equations (using the Boussinesq approximation to account for buoyancy effects), and no turbulence model is needed. Two levels of heating are considered, one quite vigorous, the other more moderate. Statistics for the vigorously heated case are found to agree reasonably well with laboratory, field, and large-eddy simulation results, when Deardorff's mixed-layer scaling is used. No indication of large-scale longitudinal roll cells is found in this convection-dominated flow, for which the inversion height to Obukhov length scale ratio –z _i /L _*=26. However, when heating is more moderate (so that –z _i /L _*=2), evidence of coherent rolls is present. About 10% of the total turbulent kinetic energy and turbulent heat flux, and 20% of the Reynolds shear stress, are estimated to be a direct consequence of the observed cells.     

Mesoscale convective systems along the Meiyu frontin a numerical model

Summary  Two organized mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) developed sequentially along the Meiyu front over the Yangzi-Huai River basin and caused severe flooding over eastern China during 12–13 June 1991. In this paper, the structure and evolution of these MCSs are studied with a high-resolution (18 km) numerical simulation using the Fifth Generation Penn-State/NCAR Mesocale Model (MM5). The model reproduced the successive development of these two MCSs along the Meiyu front. The evolution of these MCSs was recorded clearly on satellite-derived cloud-top black body temperature (T _bb ) maps. A mesoscale low-level jet (mLLJ) and a mesoscale upper-level jet (mULJ) were simulated, respectively, to the south and east of each of these two MCSs. Our analyses shows that the mLLJ and mULJ were formed as a responses to the intense convection associated with the MCS. The mLLJs transported warm, moist air with equivalent potential temperature greater than 352 K into the MCSs, and strong low-level convergence can be identified on the left-front end of the mLLJ. This strong convergence was associated with intense upward motion in the MCS with speed up to 80 cm s⁻¹. Much of inflow into the MCSs extends up to the middle and upper troposphere, and ventilated through the mULJ. The development of the MCSs was also associated with substantial increase in potential vorticity (PV). The build up of PV in the lower-level along the Meiyu front was in turn related to a local intensification of the frontal equivalent potential temperature gradient, suggesting a relationship between the MCSs and the local enhancement and cyclogenesis of the front. In a sensitivity experiment without the effect of latent heating, a series of ascent centers with average separation of about 300 km were simulated. This result suggests that the initial formation of the MCSs along the Meiyu front could occur in absence of moist-diabatic process. Since the horizontal velocity gradient across the Meiyu front near the synoptic-scale low-level jet (LLJ) was quite large while the corresponding temperature gradient across the frontal zone was rather weak, we speculate that barotropic process may be responsible for triggering these MCSs along the Meiyu front. Received December 28, 1999 Revised May 11, 2000     

我国强对流发生前的能量贮存机制

本文通过对1969—1979年我国27次大范围强对流天气的分析,发现其中只有不到30％的个例在强对流天气发生前存在低空逆温层.而从垂直运动计算和层结特征分析看,无论有或无逆温层,强对流出现前都有大范围系统性的下沉运动.由此可以认为大范围系统性的下沉运动是使强对流发生前位势不稳定能量贮存和积累的主要机制.而低空逆温层只是特定的下沉运动的产物,并依靠下沉运动而维持.同时指出这种下沉运动造成深厚的暖干气层,是发生龙卷、强雷暴大风等干性强对流天气所必须. 另外,对有低空逆温层的个例统计了各种特征量,并与美国的情况     

A numerical investigation of wind speed effects on lake-effect storms

Observations of lake-effect storms that occur over the Great Lakes region during late autumn and winter indicate a high sensitivity to ambient wind speed and direction. In this paper, a two-dimensional version of the Penn State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) model is used to investigate the wind speed effects on lake-effect snowstorms that occur over the Great Lakes region.Theoretical initial conditions for stability, relative humidity, wind velocity, and lake/land temperature distribution are specified. Nine different experiments are performed using wind speeds ofU=0, 2, 4,..., 16 m s^–1. The perturbation wind, temperature, and moisture fields for each experiment after 36 h of simulation are compared.It is determined that moderate (4–6 m s^–1) wind speeds result in maximum precipitation (snowfall) on the lee shore of the model lake. Weak wind speeds (0U<4 m s^–1) yield significantly higher snowfall amounts over the lake along with a spatially concentrated and intense response. Strong wind speeds (6<U16 m s^–1), yield very little, if any, significant snowfall, although significant increases in cloudiness, temperature, and perturbation wind speed occur hundreds of kilometers downwind from the lake.     

北京7.21特大暴雨极端性分析及思考(一): 观测分析及思考

2021年7月18日08时—22日08时（北京时）,受黄淮低涡外围东风急流影响,郑州出现了历史罕见的极端暴雨天气,并造成严重山体滑坡、泥石流、城市内涝及人员伤亡。利用探空、地面自动站和雷达拼图产品等基本观测数据对此次天气过程进行初步分析。结果表明,此次极端暴雨天气表现出持续时间长、降水强度极强、累积降水量罕见等极端性特征。此次极端大暴雨的形成原因复杂,但就初步分析结果看,大气环流形势稳定、水汽和能量充足、地形作用明显以及对流系统不断向郑州地区积聚、合并及停滞是基本成因。本文旨在分析此次极端暴雨洪涝灾害性过程的基本观测现象,为深入开展此次严重致灾性罕见极端暴雨的机理及可预报性研究提供参考。

     

曲靖冷锋前强对流的环流及雷达回波特征分析

利用常规观测资料、ERA5资料、加密自动站资料、卫星云图资料和天气雷达资料,对2021年4月28日午后出现在文山市的一次局地强风暴过程进行分析。结果表明：(1) 此次过程发生在静止锋东退减弱和副热带高压西进北抬的天气尺度背景下,中等以上强度垂直风切变、层结不稳定和大的对流有效位能为风暴的发生提供了有利的环境条件。(2) 静止锋形成的地面辐合线与地形的共同作用触发对流生成,雷暴高压出流边界与环境风形成的地面辐合线对风暴的加强有重要作用。(3) 局地强风暴过程是由单单体风暴产生的：雷达回波具有倾斜结构、前侧“V”型缺口、旁瓣回波、反射率因子质心快速下降以及V_IL值跃增等特征,这些特征对监测和预警冰雹有一定的指示作用。

     

一个直接考虑大涡、小涡作用的大气对流边界层模式

本文建立了一个大气对流边界层模式,构造此模式时,假设对流边界层中水平动量和热量在垂直方向上的湍流输送、扩散是由大涡与小涡组成的系统完成的。文中,用此模式作了一实例模拟,计算结果表明:模拟的结果与实测的结果相当一致。     

A numerical study of daily transitions in the convective boundary layer

We examine daily (morning–afternoon) transitions in the atmospheric boundary layer based on large-eddy simulations. Under consideration are the effects of the stratification at the top of the mixed layer and of the wind shear. The results describe the transitory behaviour of temperature and wind velocity, their second moments, the boundary-layer height Z _m (defined by the maximum of the potential temperature gradient) and its standard deviation σ _m , the mixed-layer height z _i (defined by the minimum of the potential temperature flux), entrainment velocity W _e, and the entrainment flux H _i . The entrainment flux and the entrainment velocity are found to lag slightly in time with respect to the surface temperature flux. The simulations imply that the atmospheric values of velocity variances, measured at various instants during the daytime, and normalized in terms of the actual convective scale w_*, are not expected to collapse to a single curve, but to produce a significant scatter of observational points. The measured values of the temperature variance, normalized in terms of the actual convective scale Θ_*, are expected to form a single curve in the mixed layer, and to exhibit a considerable scatter in the interfacial layer.     

Seeding agent dispersion within convective cloud as simulated by a 3-D numerical model

Summary The three-dimensional mesoscale cloud-resolving model ARPS (Advanced Regional Prediction System) was used to investigate the dispersal of an inert seeding agent within a cumulonimbus (Cb) cloud developing from two different initial states. In this paper, we stress the influence vortices in the cloud have on seeding agent dispersion. If a strong directional ambient wind shear is present in the lowest layer, a vortex pair formed at the flanks of the simulated cloud. Following the velocity field, a considerable amount of the injected seeding agent would be thrown out to the rear of the cloud, where both updrafts associated with vortices and downdrafts occurred. After a short time the agent was present only in the cloud periphery. If the Cb cloud developed under conditions where directional ambient wind shear did not exist, seeding agent dispersion would be quite different. In this case, almost all the seeding agent was transported into the main updraft, while the residence time of the agent within the cloud was longer due to the weaker cloud dynamics. Therefore, we must pay attention to whether or not the cloud contains vortices when we make the decision where to seed. This is necessary in order to minimize the loss of seeding material.     

The analysis and impact of simulated high-resolution surface observations in addition to radar data for convective storms with an ensemble Kalman filter

Observing system simulation experiments are performed using an ensemble Kalman filter to investigate the impact of surface observations in addition to radar data on convective storm analysis and forecasting. A multi-scale procedure is used in which different covariance localization radii are used for radar and surface observations. When the radar is far enough away from the main storm so that the low level data coverage is poor, a clear positive impact of surface observations is achieved when the network spacing is 20?km or smaller. The impact of surface data increases quasi-linearly with decreasing surface network spacing until the spacing is close to the grid interval of the truth simulation. The impact of surface data is sustained or even amplified during subsequent forecasts when their impact on the analysis is significant. When microphysics-related model error is introduced, the impact of surface data is reduced but still evidently positive, and the impact also increases with network density. Through dynamic flow-dependent background error covariance, the surface observations not only correct near-surface errors, but also errors at the mid- and upper levels. State variables different from observed are also positively impacted by the observations in the analysis.     

A study of convective elements in the atmospheric surface layer

A statistical model, based on a method of Vulf'son, is used to examine some of the plume-like temperature structures formed in the unstable boundary layer. The model assumes that the plume diameter changes slowly with height so that a cylindrical approximation may be made. Measurements of the vertical velocity and temperature were used to determine the temperature dependent portion of the vertical velocity field. Temperature data were collected from sensors on a tower and from aircraft; velocity data were collected only from the tower.Using this model for analysis of the data indicates that: (1) the average isotherm diameter and the population of isotherms are a function ofz/L; (2) the distribution of core temperatures is approximately a uniform distribution.Independent of the model, a convective velocity was determined and found to have approximately the same profile as the temperature; from this the average velocity of the plumes was found to be a linear function ofz/L, fromz/L - 0.1 toz/L - 1.0. As a consequence of this functional dependence, the entrainment into the plumes is approximately constant over this range. The cumulative temperature distribution function was found to be an asymmetric function ofz/L. A simple relation which is independent ofu _* is given to determine the heat flux.Contribution No. 269 Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington.     

A review of cloud-resolving model studies of convective processes

Convective processes affect large-scale environments through cloud-radiation interaction, cloud micro- physical processes, and surface rainfall processes. Over the last three decades, cloud-resolving models （CRMs） have demonstrated to be capable of simulating convective-radiative responses to an imposed large-scale forcing. The CRM-produced cloud and radiative properties have been utilized to study the convective- related processes and their ensemble effects on large-scale circulations. This review the recent progress on the understanding of convective processes with the use of CRM simulations, including precipitation processes; cloud microphysical and radiative processes; dynamical processes; precipitation efficiency; diurnal variations of tropical oceanic convection; local-scale atmosphere-ocean coupling processes; and tropical convective-radiative equilibrium states. Two different ongoing applications of CRMs to general circulation models （GCMs） are discussed： replacing convection and cloud schemes for studying the interaction between cloud systems and large-scale circulation, and improving the schemes for climate simulations.