地表拖曳对斜压波地面锋生的影响

利用三维非静力中尺度数值模式MM5模拟了干湿大气条件中纬度典型斜压波及其锋面系统的生成与演变过程, 重点讨论地表拖曳对干、湿大气中地面锋结构、锋生过程的影响作用. 研究结果表明, 在干大气中, 地表拖曳力对地面锋锋生具有双向作用, 一方面是锋消作用, 主要体现在地表拖曳力减慢地面锋锋生、地面斜压波系统发展; 另一方面, 地表拖曳力导致强的非地转流形成, 从而延长了冷锋锋生过程维持时间, 有利于冷锋强度增大. 同时地表拖曳力可以造成边界层内锋面近乎垂直于地面, 导致锋前垂直运动增强, 这些结果进一步推广了谈哲敏和伍荣生的理论结果. 在湿大气中, 地表拖曳过程对锋面雨带分布有重要的影响作用, 地表拖曳力可减缓对流上 升, 从而导致地表能量的耗散减缓. 当大气低层湿度较小时, 对流不是很强, 地表拖曳力可减缓地表水汽、能量的迅速耗散, 且在锋后边界层中产生摩擦辐合上升区, 这些上升区可逐渐东移到冷锋前, 补偿了锋前上升带的强度, 有利于冷锋降水的维持. 当大气低层湿度场很强时, 对流发展比较旺盛, 此时地表拖曳对低层水汽与能量的束缚作用相对较弱, 相应地表拖曳对锋面及其降水系统影响较小.     

长江流域梅雨锋暴雨过程的中尺度结构个例分析

利用外场试验资料, 用双多普勒雷达技术和径向速度场分析方法, 研究了2002年7月22~23日发生在长江流域一次暴雨过程的中尺度结构动力特征和演变过程. 结果表明, 在西南-东北取向1000 km长的暴雨雨带中, 存在有许多尺度在20~50 km大小的β或γ中尺度强回波带或回波团, 在长江中游, 混合性强降水雨带在长200 km以上的低空切变线上形成; 在切变线南侧的低空西南急流和北侧的偏东气流共同作用下形成上升气流, 对流云得到发展, 切变线低空风场的扰动、中尺度切变和β中尺度辐合是造成对流发展的原因; 新回波常常在老回波右后侧生成, 并移向西南气流区, 从而得到充足的水汽, 这种回波发展旺盛, 持续时间长. β中尺度对流系统常常伴有尺度更小的中尺度涡旋和中尺度辐合等γ中尺度结构, 这些γ中尺度结构在强对流的发展过程中也起了很重要的作用.     

延伸期可预报分量的预报方案和策略

延伸期时间尺度虽然超过逐日天气预报时效理论上限,但仍然存在可预报的气象场特征.本文针对延伸期尺度的可预报分量,提出了有针对性的预报方案和策略.基于大气系统的混沌特性,从误差增长的角度在数值模式中分离了可预报分量和不可预报的随机分量,将可预报分量定义为在预报时段内误差增长较慢的分量,它对初值小的误差不极其敏感.通过在预报过程中滤除随机分量,保留可预报性较高的分量,建立起针对可预报分量的数值模式,避免小尺度分量预报误差的快速增长对预报效果的影响.同时,结合历史资料,利用相似-动力方法对可预报分量的预报误差进行订正,达到减小模式误差和从统计角度考虑随机分量对可预报分量影响的目的.结果表明,该方法能有效提高数值模式对可预报分量的预报技巧,从空间分布上体现为对可预报性较高的地区改进更为明显;从空间尺度上看,改进最为明显的是0波,其次是超长波和天气尺度波,与各尺度的可预报性有很好的一致性.该方法能有效减小可预报分量的模式误差,提高预报技巧,显示出良好的业务应用前景.     

初值和海温强迫对延伸期可预报性时空分布的影响

利用全球谱模式T106L19和增长模繁殖法,分别在气候海温和预测海温强迫下,进行了动力延伸集合预报试验.基于方差分析思想,利用集合预报结果,定义和计算了初值影响指数、海温强迫影响指数、潜在可预报性指数以及波动活动指数.通过分析四个指数,揭示了初值和海温强迫对延伸期可预报性时空分布以及潜在可预报性的影响,并探讨了其影响机理.结果表明：初值影响指数分布具有地域和季节的差异,初值的影响在中高纬度地区大于热带地区;相同季节,海温强迫影响指数分布与初值影响指数分布相似;潜在可预报性指数呈带状分布,大值集中在热带地区,且在低纬度地区,高层的潜在可预报性大于低层;初值和海温强迫对延伸期可预报性时空分布的影响,依赖于大气环流形势,初值和海温强迫影响的显著区正是大气长波的活跃区和西风急流区,急流区的强风切变为长波活动提供了斜压不稳定能量,而长波的发展调控着初值和海温强迫的影响,这说明延伸期的可预报性具有明显的流依赖性,大气外强迫的作用也与大气内部的动力过程密切相关.     

合肥地区沙尘暴降尘过程的大气细粒子谱观测研究

2010年3月20日至3月28日,利用大气细粒子谱分析仪对合肥地区大气细粒子谱进行连续在线观测.观测过程涵盖整个沙尘暴降尘期、间歇性降雨期及晴好天气粒子浓度增长期.颗粒物数浓度分析表明,沙尘暴降尘期内核模态(Nucleation mode, 5~20 nm)、爱根核模态(Aitken mode, 20~100 nm)和积聚模态(Accumulation mode, 100~1000 nm)粒子浓度分别为898 cm-3、3424 cm-3、1587 cm-3,并未明显高于间歇性降雨期(粒子浓度分别为255 cm-3、1509 cm-3、1213 cm-3)和晴好天气粒子浓度增长期(粒子浓度分别为706 cm-3、4891 cm-3、2468 cm-3);沙尘暴降尘期粗粒子模态(Coarse mode, 1~10 μm) 粒子值达到 48 cm-3,浓度远高于其他观测期.粒谱分析表明:合肥地区大气细粒子谱呈典型双峰结构,第一峰值出现在10~20 nm之间,第二峰值出现在100 nm左右,而且不同天气条件下细粒子谱峰值位置略有不同;沙尘暴降尘期,粒径10 nm以下和400 nm以上粒子浓度值高于间歇性降雨期和晴好天气粒子浓度增长期,而并非只有粗粒子模态粒子浓度高于其他时段.     

Frontal genesis of moisture atmosphere during the early 2008 persistent freezing-rain event in southern China

From January 10 to February 2, 2008, a severe and persistent freezing-rain event occurred in southern and southwestern China. Here we use an observational analysis to compare the persistent freezing-rain event in the early 2008 with the winter precipita- tion in the late 2007 over south of the Yangtze River (Jiangnan). The persistent freezing-rain event was directly linked to the activity of quasi-stationary front. The gradient of equivalent temperature (ET) can well indicate the frontal genesis of moist atmosphere (moisture front) and its activity as well as its relationship with precipitation belt. The precipitation types (snow and freezing rains) are related to the vertical structure of moisture front. The inversion profile of ET vertical distribution is a typical synoptic condition that caused the freezing-rain event. The horizontal gradient of ET with a criterion of 10℃ / 100 km, which reflects the accumulation and release of atmospheric energy, can be applied to predict the precipitation 5-10 days in advance.     

南方持续低温冻雨事件预测的前期信号

1960—2008年冬季期间,中国南方发生了23次低温冰冻(冻雨)天气事件,其中满足站日数大于10的事件有11次.2008年初中国南方发生了一场影响巨大的区域持续性低温冻雨天气事件,2011年初再次发生了类似的区域持续性低温冻雨事件.提前5天预报这类极端事件是国内外大气科学面临的难题.利用去逐日气候变化后的逐日850 hPa温度扰动,可以提前3~10天发现中国南方持续低温雨雪冰冻(冻雨)事件发生的信号.2008年初和2011初,影响中国南方的850 hPa冷空气扰动具有源地和路径相似性,它们都来自北非-中东并绕过青藏高原北侧到达中国南方,在对流层大气中形成"冷-暖-冷"的温度垂直结构.通过对欧洲中期天气预报模式产品中850 hPa温度扰动的相似性分析,成功地提前4~9天实际预报出了2011年初的中国南方低温冻雨天气过程.     

The anomalous variation of the lightning activity in southern China during the 1997/98 El Ni(n~)o event

This paper presents the EOF analysis results of the lightning density (LD) anomalies for the different seasons in southeastern China and Indochina Peninsula by using the OTD/LIS database (June 1995 to Feb. 2003) of the global LD with 2.5°×2.5° resolution offered by Global Hydrology Resource Center. It is shown that the LD positive anomalies in the region occurred at the same time of NINO3 SSTA steep increase in the spring of 1997 and remained to be a higher level till the next spring, as well the corresponding anomaly percent maximum in different seasons was 89%, 30%, 45%, 498% and 55% successively from the beginning to the end of the 1997/98 El Ni(~n)o event (ENSO). The centre of the LD positive anomalies for the spring or winter season is located at southeastern China and the adjacent coastal areas, but it for the summer or autumn season is located at the southern Indochina Peninsula and Gulf of Thailand, whose position for each season in the ENSO as contrasted with the normal years has a westward shift, and especially for winter or spring season a northward shift at the same time. In addition, an analysis of the interannual variations in the LD anomaly percent, convective precipitation and H-CAPE days in southern China shows that each among the three anomaly percents is correlative with the other for the positive anomaly zone and Kuroshio area. The relative variation of LD during the El Ni (~n)o period is the highest among the three rates and is larger than that during the non-El Ni(~n)o period, meaning that the response of lightning activities to the ENSO is the most sensitive in both areas. But the response of lightning activities and precipitation to the ENSO appears to be more complex and diversified either in Kuroshio area or in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and northwestern and northeastern China.     

Distribution of nutrient salts in the southern North Sea during early 1974

Nutrient salt surveys in the southern North Sea have shown that the level of phosphate and nitrate off the continental coast during January, 1974 was two to three times higher than during the same period in 1962. The level of phosphate has also increased in the Thames Estuary but to a lesser degree. It is suggested that these increases are related to the discharge of waste material from terrestrial sources and that such changes must be considered in the context of eutrophication in the southern North Sea.     

Meteorological conditions for the persistent severe fog and haze event over eastern China in January 2013

In January 2013,a severe fog and haze event(FHE)of strong intensity,long duration,and extensive coverage occurred in eastern China.The present study investigates meteorological conditions for this FHE by diagnosing both its atmospheric background fields and daily evolution in January 2013.The results show that a weak East Asian winter monsoon existed in January2013.Over eastern China,the anomalous southerly winds in the middle and lower troposphere are favorable for more water vapor transported to eastern China.An anomalous high at 500 hPa suppresses convection.The weakened surface winds are favorable for the fog and haze concentrating in eastern China.The reduction of the vertical shear of horizontal winds weakens the synoptic disturbances and vertical mixing of atmosphere.The anomalous inversion in near-surface increases the stability of surface air.All these meteorological background fields in January 2013 were conducive to the maintenance and development of fog and haze over eastern China.The diagnosis of the daily evolution of the FHE shows that the surface wind velocity and the vertical shear of horizontal winds in the middle and lower troposphere can exert dynamic effects on fog and haze.The larger(smaller)they are,the weaker(stronger)the fog and haze are.The thermodynamic effects include stratification instability in middle and lower troposphere and the inversion and dew-point deficit in near-surface.The larger(smaller)the stratification instability and the inversion are,the stronger(weaker)the fog and haze are.Meanwhile,the smaller(larger)the dewpoint deficit is,the stronger(weaker)the fog and haze are.Based on the meteorological factors,a multi-variate linear regression model is set up.The model results show that the dynamic and thermodynamic effects on the variance of the fog and haze evolution are almost the same.The contribution of the meteorological factors to the variance of the daily fog and haze evolution reaches 0.68,which explains more than 2/3 of the variance.     

An abrupt cooling event early in the last interglacial in the northern South China Sea

The high-resolution quantitative analysis of the planktonic foraminifera and the δ¹⁸O records of the section between 96.49– 137.6 mcd at ODP Site 1144 on the continental slope of northern South China Sea reveals an abrupt cooling event of sea surface temperature (SST) during the last interglacial (MIS 5.5, i.e. 5e). The dropping range of the winter SST may come to 7.5°C corresponding to 1.2‰ of the δ¹⁸O value of sea surface water. This event is comparable with those discovered in the west Europe and the northern Atlantic Ocean, but expressed in a more intensive way. It is inferred that this event may have been induced by middle- to low-latitude processes rather than by polar ice sheet change. Since the Kuroshio-index speciesPulleniatina obliquiloculata displayed the most distinct change at the event, it may also be related to the paleoceanographic change of the low-latitude area in the western Pacific Ocean. This event can be considered as one of “Younger Dryas-style coolings” and is indicative of climate variability of the last interglacial stage.     

A 1556 year-long early summer moisture reconstruction for the Hexi Corridor,Northwestern China

We report a 1556 year-long tree-ring width chronology for the Hexi Corridor, in the arid Northwestern China,established by applying the signal-free regional curve standardization method to 416 juniper ring-width series. We found that drought in early summer(May–June) is the primary controlling factor for tree growth in this area. We then developed an early summer moisture(i.e., scPDSI) reconstruction from 455 CE to present. Our reconstruction captures multi-centennial scale moisture variations, showing two long-term dry periods during 800–950 CE and 1000–1200 CE, and two long-term wet periods during 1200–1450 CE and 1510–1620 CE. We found strong similarities between hydroclimatic changes in the Hexi Corridor and Qaidam Basin from interannual to centennial timescales; however, at multi-centennial(300 years) timescales, hydroclimatic variations in the two regions showed significant regional differences. The Hexi Corridor witnessed a generally dry Medieval Climate Anomaly(MCA, here 800–1200 CE) and the drying 20 th century, whereas the Qaidam Basin experienced highprecipitation periods during the MCA and 20 th century. The different correlation pattern with Northern Hemisphere temperature suggest that the Qaidam Basin will receive more precipitation under global warming, whereas the Hexi Corridor will become dryer in the future.     

Seismicity of the southern Siberian platform: Spatiotemporal characteristics and genesis

Analysis of instrumental data on earthquakes of 1960–2005 in the Irkutsk amphitheater shows that the majority of the earthquakes form a wide (150–300 km) band of diffuse seismicity along the marginal suture of the Siberian platform. In accordance with established regular spatiotemporal patterns of the distribution of earthquakes, this band belongs to the Sayan-Baikal seismic belt, associated with the destruction process at the boundary of large lithospheric blocks. The band is located on the northern periphery of the belt and, the deformable substrate being highly monolithic, this sharply weakens the seismicity within the band. Because of the tectonic origin of earthquakes in such a vast platform territory, undoubted evidence for induced seismicity around the Angara cascade reservoirs, and the intense economic development of the region, the problem of seismic hazard in the southern Siberian platform should be regarded as one of the most significant objects of geodynamic research.     

The early history of oxygen and ozone in the atmosphere

There may have been three stages in the growth of oxygen in the terrestrial atmosphere. Prior to the origin of photosynthesis the only source of oxygen was photolysis of water vapor followed by escape of hydrogen to space. The rate of this process was probably less than the rate of release of reduced gases (principally hydrogen) from volcanoes, so the oxygen partial pressure was held to negligibly low values by photochemical reactions with an excess of hydrogen. The photosynthetic source of oxygen was probably in operation as long ago as 3.8 billion years. It released oxygen to the ocean. Presumably most of this oxygen was destroyed in the ocean as long as its rate of supply was less than the rate of supply of readily oxidizable material (principally Fe²⁺) provided by the weathering of rocks. This phase appears to have lasted until about 2 billion years ago, during which period most banded iron formations were deposited. During this period the production of oxygen by algae was limited by competition with photosynthetic bacteria, which preempted the supply of nutrient phosphorus as long as reduced chemicals were available in the environment. Once the photosynthetic oxygen source exceeded the rate of supply of reduced minerals exposed by erosion and weathering, the accumulation of oxygen in the ocean and atmosphere could be controlled only by reaction of oxygen with reduced organic material. This is the stabilization mechanism that operates today. It seems unlikely that oxygen could be consumed at a significant rate by this process until oxygen levels sufficiently high to support respiration had been achieved. I therefore suggest that atmospheric oxygen rose rapidly from essentially zero to approximately its present value (within a factor of 10) when the photosynthetic source of oxygen rose above the weathering source of reduced minerals, probably about 2 billion years ago. The ozone layer and the ultraviolet screen were absent prior to this time and essentially fully developed after this time.Presented at IAGA/IAMAP Symposium on Minor Neutral Constituents in Middle Atmosphere-Chemistry and Transport, Seattle, August, 1977.     

Multidecadal changes in moisture condition during climatic growing period of crops in Northeast China

Investigating the spatiotemporal dynamics of agricultural water status during crop growth season can provide scientific evidences for more efficient use of water resources and sustainable development of agricultural production under climate change. In this study, the following were used to evaluate the multidecadal changes in moisture condition during climatic growth period of crops in Northeast China from 1961 to 2010: (1) the daily climate variables gathered from 101 meteorological stations in Northeast China for 1961–2010; (2) FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) Penman–Monteith equation; (3) 80% guaranteed probability for agro-climatic indicators; and (4) the daily average temperature stably passing 0 °C, which is the threshold temperature of climatic growth period for crops. Reference crop evapotranspiration (ET₀) and relative moisture index were further calculated. The results showed that Northeast China’s climate in the main agricultural areas over the past 50 years was warmer and drier in general, with a growing range and intensity of drought. From 1961 to 2010, when the daily average temperature stably passed 0 °C, the average annual total precipitation (P) and ET₀ with 80% guaranteed probability in Northeast China both emerged as decreasing trends with averages of 555.0 mm and 993.7 mm, respectively. However, the decline in P was greater than that of annual total ET₀. As a result, the annual relative moisture indices sharply decreased with an average of −0.44, mostly fluctuating from −0.59 to −0.25. As far as spatial distributions were concerned, the inter-regional reductions in P and relative moisture index over the past 50 years were conspicuous, especially in some agricultural areas of central Heilongjiang Province, northeastern Jilin Province and northeastern Liaoning Province. On the contrary, ET₀ obviously increased in some agricultural areas of central and northwestern Heilongjiang Province (eg. Qiqiha’er, Shuangyashan, Hegang, Suihua, etc.), and northeastern Jilin Province (eg. Baicheng). This indicated that drought existed and was unfavorable for crop growth and development, especially during the period of 2001–2010. This finding revealed that drought was still one of the most important agricultural meteorological disasters in Northeast China. Some countermeasures should be formulated to adapt to climate change. Our findings have important implications for improving climate change impact studies, for breeding scientists to breed higher yielding cultivars, and for agricultural production to cope with ongoing climate change.