Efficient hydrologic tracer-test design for tracer-mass estimation and sample-collection frequency. 2. Experimental results

Effective tracer-test design requires that the likely results be predicted in advance of test initiation to ensure tracer-test success. EHTD-predicted breakthrough curves (BTCs) for various hydrological conditions were compared with measured BTCs obtained from actual tracer tests. The hydrological conditions for the tracer tests ranged from flowing streams to porous-media systems. Tracer tests evaluated included flowing streams tracer tests conducted in small and large surface-water streams, a karst solution conduit, and a glacial-meltwater stream and porous-media systems conducted as natural-gradient, forced-gradient, injection-withdrawal, and recirculation tracer tests. Comparisons between the actual tracer tests and the predicted results showed that tracer breakthrough, hydraulic characteristics, and sample-collection frequency may be forecasted sufficiently well in most instances as to facilitate good tracer-test design. Comparisons were generally improved by including tracer decay and/or retardation in the simulations. Inclusion of tracer decay in the simulations also tended to require an increase in set average tracer concentration to facilitate matching peak concentrations in the measured BTCs, however. Both nonreactive tracer and reactive tracer predictions produced recommended sample-collection frequencies that would adequately define the actual BTCs, but estimated tracer-mass estimates were less precise.     

A review of some tracer-test design equations for tracer-mass estimation and sample-collection frequency

Determination of necessary tracer mass, initial sample-collection time, and subsequent sample-collection frequency are the three most difficult aspects to estimate for a proposed tracer test prior to conducting the tracer test. To facilitate tracer-mass estimation, 33 mass-estimation equations have been developed over the past century. These 33 equations are reviewed here, 32 of which were evaluated using previously published tracer-test design examination parameters. Comparison of the results produced a wide range of estimated tracer mass, but no means is available by which one equation may be reasonably selected over the others. Each equation produces a simple approximation for tracer mass. Most of the equations are based primarily on estimates or measurements of discharge, transport distance, and suspected transport times. Although the basic field parameters commonly employed are appropriate for estimating tracer mass, the 33 equations are problematic in that they were all probably based on the original developers experience in a particular field area and not necessarily on measured hydraulic parameters or solute-transport theory. Suggested sampling frequencies are typically based primarily on probable transport distance, but with little regard to expected travel times. This too is problematic in that tracer sampling remains a haphazard process that tends to result in false negatives or data aliasing. Simulations from the recently developed efficient hydrologic tracer-test design methodology (EHTD) were compared with those obtained from 32 of the 33 published tracer-mass estimation equations and suggested sampling frequencies. EHTD applies functional relationships developed from hydrologic measurements in a solute-transport model to develop a preliminary tracer-breakthrough curve that has been shown to reasonably predict actual tracer-test results.     

水文频率分布模型的异同性与参数估计问题

回顾了20世纪50年代对水文频率分布模型异同性的认识,分析了分布模型在统计特征上的相异性与共通性。在分布的几何形态相同的条件下,目前所用的分布模型中,仅3个参数的模型基本上是相异的。通过观察与实例分析,初步发现,取4个参数,有可能使模型有统一的求解结果。用数学方法能得到参数的唯一解,但多数方法是先计算出不确定性较大的C_S值,继而据此算得其它一个或两个参数,故这种结果是一种初值,有待通过合理性分析,才能得到最终取用值。     

Analytical hydrologic models and the design of policy instruments for groundwater-quality management

This paper explores how analytical hydrologic models can inform the effective design and choice of policy instruments to manage groundwater quality by coupling a social-planner’s problem of optimal groundwater-quality management with analytical solutions from the hydrology literature. A theoretical analysis is performed in order to characterize the properties of an optimal emissions policy. The model is then applied in a numerical analysis of groundwater contamination by chloride from highway deicers, demonstrating the relevance of the theoretical results to practical management settings. This analytical approach can help determine which policy instruments are likely to be effective in controlling groundwater pollution, especially if costly numerical groundwater models are not available for the aquifer in question. Unlike previous economic studies of groundwater contamination, this approach defines optimal emissions policies as a function of geophysical parameters employed by hydrologists such as distance between source and sink, groundwater velocity, and aquifer dispersivity. The theoretical section of this paper also demonstrates that the relationship between geophysical parameters and optimal emissions levels may be ambiguous.     

水文序列小波分析中分解层数选择方法

小波分解层数的合理选择是水文序列小波分析结果的重要影响因素。在详细分析和定量描述不同类型噪声的能量分布规律的基础上,依据水文序列中确定成分和噪声成分的能量分布规律的差异,提出了一个小波分解层数选择方法。通过对不同类型模拟序列和不同特性实测水文序列进行分析,验证了所提方法的有效性和实用性。结果表明:序列组成、噪声含量等因素对小波分解层数的选择结果有较大影响,但噪声类型对小波分解层数选择结果影响较小;应用该方法确定小波分解层数的同时,还可以有效地识别和区分各层上是确定成分或是噪声成分,进而可为序列模拟预测提供依据。由于所提方法基于水文序列不同成分变化特性的差异建立,因此有较好的物理依据且分析结果合理可靠。     

Lake-tilting, a method for estimation of glacio-isostatic uplift

A non-uniform glacio-isostatic uplift can result in differential uplift for different parts of a lake. If the lake outlet is situated in the area of the greatest rate of uplift, then remote parts of the lake will be continuously transgressed. Ancient lake levels can be estimated by dating transgressed peat at different depths in such lakes. Four lakes in southern Sweden have been investigated using this method and the course of the glacio-isostatic uplift has been determined empirically. The investigation shows that the difference in uplift between the outlet and the sampling site can be expressed as an arctan function relating the difference in uplift over time to: half of the difference of the total uplift between the outlet and the sampling site, the time for the maximal rate of the uplift and a declining factor.     

梯级水库设计洪水最可能地区组成法计算通式

利用Copula函数建立各分区洪水的联合分布,基于联合概率密度最大原则,推导得到最可能地区组成法的计算通式,并用来推求梯级水库下游断面的设计洪水。选择清江流域水布垭-隔河岩-高坝洲梯级水库为例,开展了验证和方法比较研究。结果表明:最可能地区组成法计算得到的设计洪水值位于同频率地区组成法多方案计算结果的区间之内;受清江梯级水库调洪的影响,宜都断面设计洪水的削峰率十分显著,最可能地区组成法推求100年一遇设计洪水的削峰率达到30.2%。该法具有较强的统计基础,组成方案唯一,结果合理可行,为复杂梯级水库设计洪水的计算提供了一种新途径。     

Identification of hydrologic and geochemical pathways using high frequency sampling,REE aqueous sampling and soil characterization at Koiliaris Critical Zone Observatory,Crete

Koiliaris River watershed is a Critical Zone Observatory that represents severely degraded soils due to intensive agricultural activities and biophysical factors. It has typical Mediterranean soils under the imminent threat of desertification which is expected to intensify due to projected climate change. High frequency hydro-chemical monitoring with targeted sampling for Rare Earth Elements (REE) analysis of different water bodies and geochemical characterization of soils were used for the identification of hydrologic and geochemical pathways. The high frequency monitoring of water chemical data highlighted the chemical alterations of water in Koiliaris River during flash flood events. Soil physical and chemical characterization surveys were used to identify erodibility patterns within the watershed and the influence of soils on surface and ground water chemistry. The methodology presented can be used to identify the impacts of degraded soils to surface and ground water quality as well as in the design of methods to minimize the impacts of land use practices.     

克里金参数估值法及其在参数估计分析中的应用

为考虑岩土介质参数的空间分布的结构性和随机性等不确定因素,引入了克里金参数估值法。采用变异函数描述参数在空间结构上的变化,建立其空间变异规律的数学模型,从而实现对岩土参数的估值。通过实例分析揭示了克里金估值法具有反映“过滤效应”和“集团效应”的优点,对不同位置的数据赋予不同的权重系数,能够有效地反映参数空间变异结构,有利于对参数的合理化分析     

中心岛法实用设计计算方法研究

在城市建设中越来越多的大面积深基坑采用中心岛顺作、周边预留土台逆作的开挖支护方式。该法不仅节约工程造价,而且节省大量工期,但目前仍缺乏简单、合理的设计计算方法。基于Rankine土压力理论,采用图解法得到中心岛被动土压力的分布模式,该土压力分布在单一土质条件下随埋深呈现为3段折线。根据上述土压力分布和基坑工程手册[1]有关悬臂结构的设计思路,提出中心岛法围护结构的设计计算方法,并提供一个算例。经算例验证该法简单实用,便于工程师使用。     

A statistical method for estimating rates of soil development and ages of geologic deposits: A design for soil-chronosequence studies

A statistical method for estimating rates of soil development in a given region based on calibration from a series of dated soils is used to estimate ages of soils in the same region that are not dated directly. The method is designed specifically to account for sampling procedures and uncertainties that are inherent in soil studies. Soil variation and measurement error, uncertainties in calibration dates and their relation to the age of the soil, and the limited number of dated soils are all considered. Maximum likelihood (ML) is employed to estimate a parametric linear calibration curve, relating soil development to time or age on suitably transformed scales. Soil variation on a geomorphic surface of a certain age is characterized by replicate sampling of soils on each surface; such variation is assumed to have a Gaussian distribution. The age of a geomorphic surface is described by older and younger bounds. This technique allows age uncertainty to be characterized by either a Gaussian distribution or by a triangular distribution using minimum, best-estimate, and maximum ages. The calibration curve is taken to be linear after suitable (in certain cases logarithmic) transformations, if required, of the soil parameter and age variables. Soil variability, measurement error, and departures from linearity are described in a combined fashion using Gaussian distributions with variances particular to each sampled geomorphic surface and the number of sample replicates. Uncertainty in age of a geomorphic surface used for calibration is described using three parameters by one of two methods. In the first method, upper and lower ages are specified together with a coverage probability; this specification is converted to a Gaussian distribution with the appropriate mean and variance. In the second method, absolute older and younger ages are specified together with a most probable age; this specification is converted to an asymmetric triangular distribution with mode at the most probable age. The statistical variability of the ML-estimated calibration curve is assessed by a Monte Carlo method in which simulated data sets repeatedly are drawn from the distributional specification; calibration parameters are reestimated for each such simulation in order to assess their statistical variability. Several examples are used for illustration. The age of undated soils in a related setting may be estimated from the soil data using the fitted calibration curve. A second simulation to assess age estimate variability is described and applied to the examples.     

落实科学发展观促进工程咨询设计行业发展

各位领导、各位专家、同志们： 很高兴参加全国工程咨询设计行业发展高峰论坛。在这里我谨代表建设部工程质量安全监督与行业发展司对此次高峰论坛的召开表示热烈祝贺。[第一段]     

住宅小区的建筑设计和发展规划--[绿色生态环保住宅]

合理有效利用能源,建设节能环保型住宅,是今后住宅发展的方向,本文从绿色环境、节能、节水、建筑材料的选择等几个方面进行了阐述,并对屋顶空间、地下空间、立体空间的合理利用提出了新的设想。     

Landslide susceptibility assessment of national highway 1D from Sonamarg to Kargil,Jammu and Kashmir,India using frequency ratio method

GeoJournal - This study is an attempt to carry landslide susceptibility assessment along national highway 1D a lifeline to the Ladakh region using Frequency Ratio Method in GIS environment. The...     

Effect of watershed partitioning on hydrologic parameters and estimation of hydrograph of an ungauged basin: a case study in Gokirmak and Kocanaz,Turkey

The main goal of this study is to investigate the effect of the size of the subbasins of a watershed on the hydrologic parameters and their spatial variability in an estimation of the hydrologic parameters and hydrograph of a neighbouring ungauged basin. In this paper, Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS), a semi-distributed hydrologic model, is used to calibrate and cross-validate two flood events occurred in 1998 and then validate four other flood events occurred in 1991, 1994, 2002, and 2009 in Gokirmak Basin in Western Black Sea Region, Turkey. The basin is divided into seven different subbasins to investigate the effect of watershed partitioning on calibrated hydrologic parameters of each subbasin using the peak-weighted root mean square error method as an objective function and the hydrograph at the outlet of the whole basin. It is found out that as the geometric magnitudes of the subbasins changed, the calibrated values of the hydrologic parameters of those subbasins changed as well. Then, a neighbouring basin, Kocanaz, is considered as an assumed neighbouring ungauged basin to investigate the effect of watershed partitioning of a gauged basin on the estimation of hydrograph of a neighbouring ungauged basin. Hydrologic parameters and direct runoff hydrograph of assumed ungauged neighbouring basin are estimated from the hydrologic parameters of the HEC-HMS calibration results of Gokirmak. Statistical indicators of the simulation results for each basin partitioning were graded with respect to the boundary values of the simulation outputs to find the best alternative. The grading results show that the simulation results with a single basin gave better representation among all other partitioning except two flood events.     

A hybrid method for grade estimation using genetic algorithm and neural networks

In the present paper, a new hybrid method is proposed for grade estimation. In this method, the multilayer perceptron (MLP) network is trained using the combination of the Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) method and genetic algorithm (GA). Having a few samples for grade estimation, it is difficult to get a proper result using some function approximation methods like neural networks or geostatistical methods. The neural network training methods are very sensitive to initial weight values when there are a few samples as a training dataset. The main objective of the proposed method is to resolve this problem. Here, our method finds the optimal initial weights by combining GA and LM method. Having the optimal initial values for weights, the local minima are avoided in the training phase and subsequently the neural network sustainability is trained optimally. Furthermore, the hybrid method is applied for grade estimation of Gol-e-Gohar iron ore in south Iran. The proposed method shows significant improvements compared to both conventional MLP and Kriging method. The efficiency of the proposed method gets more highlighted when the training data set is small.     

Geologic, hydrologic, and geochemical interpretations of mineral deposits as analogs for understanding transport of environmental contaminants

Base- and precious-metal mineral deposits comprise anomalous concentrations of metals and associated elements, which may be useful subjects for study as analogs for migration of environmental contaminants. In the geologic past, hydrothermal mineral deposits formed at the intersection of favorable geologic, hydrologic and geochemical gradients. In the present, weathering of these sulfide-rich deposits occurs as a result of the interplay between rates of oxygen supply versus rates of ground or surface-water flow. Transport and spatial dispersion of elements from a mineral deposit occurs as a function of competing rates of water flow versus rates of attenuation mechanisms such as adsorption, dilution, or (co)precipitation. In this paper we present several case studies from mineralized and altered sedimentary and crystalline aquifers in the western United States to illustrate the geologic control of ground-water flow and solute transport, and to demonstrate how this combined approach leads to a more complete understanding of the systems under study as well as facilitating some capability to predict major flow directions in aquifers.