Reactions of alkoxy radicals under atmospheric conditions: The relative importance of decomposition versus reaction with O2

The reactions of alkoxy radicals determine to a large extent the products formed during the atmospheric degradations of emitted organic compounds. Experimental data concerning the decompositions, 1,5-H shift isomerizations and reactions with O₂ of several classes of alkoxy radicals are inconsistent with literature estimations of their absolute or relative rate constants. An alternative, although empirical, method for assessing the relative importance under atmospheric conditions of the reactions of alkoxy radicals with O₂ versus decomposition was derived. This estimation method utilizes the differences in the heats of reaction, (H)=(H_{decomposition}–H_{O 2 reaction}), between these two reactions pathways. For (H)[22–0.5(H_{O 2 reaction})], alkoxy radical decomposition dominates over the reaction with O₂ at room temperature and atmospheric pressure of air, while for (H)[25-0.5(H_{O 2 reaction})], the O₂ reaction dominates over decomposition (where the units of H are in kcal mol^–1). The utility and shortcomings of this approach are discussed. It is concluded that further studies concerning the reactions of alkoxy radicals are needed.     

Simultaneous Measurements of Black Carbon, PM10, Ozone and NOx Variability at a Locally Polluted Island in the Southern Tropics

This paper shows a comparative study of particle and surface ozone concentration measurements undertaken simultaneously at two distinct semi-urban locations distant by 4 km at Saint-Denis, the main city of La Réunion island (21.5° S, 55.5° E) during austral autumn (May 2000). Black carbon (BC) particles measured at La Réunion University, the first site situated in the suburbs of Saint-Denis, show straight-forward anti-correlation with ozone, especially during pollution peaks ( 650 ng/m³ and 15 ppbv, for BC and ozone respectively) and at night-time (90 ng/m³ and 18.5 ppbv, for BC and ozone respectively). NO_x (NO and NO₂) and PM₁₀ particles were also measured in parallel with ozone at Lislet Geoffroy college, a second site situated closer to the city centre. NO_x and PM₁₀ particles are anti-correlated with ozone, with noticeable ozone destruction during peak hours (mean 6 and 9 ppbv at 7 a.m. and 8 p.m. respectively) when NO_x and PM₁₀ concentrations exhibit maximum values. We observe a net daytime ozone creation (19 ppbv, O₃ +4.5 ppbv), following both photochemical and dynamical processes. At night-time however, ozone recovers (mean 11 ppbv) when anthropogenic activities are lower ([BC] 100 ng/m³). BC and PM₁₀ concentration variation obtained during an experiment at the second site shows that the main origin of particles is anthropogenic emission (vehicles), which in turn influences directly ozone variability. Saint-Denis BC and ozone concentrations are also compared to measurements obtained during early autumn (March 2000) at Sainte-Rose (third site), a quite remote oceanic location. Contrarily to Saint-Denis observations, a net daytime ozone loss (14.5 ppbv at 4 p.m.) is noticed at Sainte-Rose while ozone recovers (17 ppbv) at night-time, with however a lower amplitude than at Saint-Denis. Preliminary results presented here are handful data sets for modelling and which may contribute to a better comprehension of ozone variability in relatively polluted areas.     

Biomass burning in the tropical savannas of Ivory Coast: An overview of the field experiment Fire of Savannas (FOS/DECAFE 91)

FOS/DECAFE 91 (Fire of Savannas/Dynamique et Chimie Atmosphérique en Forêt Equatoriale) was the first multidisciplinary experiment organized in Africa to determine gas and aerosol emissions by prescribed savanna fires. The humid savanna of Lamto in Ivory Coast was chosen for its ecological characteristics representative of savannas with a high biomass density (900 g m^–2 dry matter). Moreover the vegetation and the climate of Lamto have been studied for more than twenty years. The emission ratios (X/CO₂) of the carbon compounds (CO₂, CO, NMHC, CH₄, PAH, organic acids and aerosols), nitrogen compounds (NO_x, N₂O, NH₃ and soluble aerosols) and sulfur compounds (SO₂, COS and aerosols) were experimentally determined by ground and aircraft measurements. To perform this experiment, 4 small plots (100×100 m) and 2 large areas (10×10 km) were prepared and burnt in January 1991 during the period of maximum occurrence of fires in this type of savanna. The detailed ecological study shows that the carbon content of the vegetation is constant within 1% (42 g C for 100 g of vegetal dry matter), the nitrogen content (0.29 g N for 100 g of dry matter) may vary by 10% and the sulfur content (0.05 g S/100 d.m.) by 20%. These variations of the biomass chemical content do not constitute an important factor in the variation of the gas and particle emission levels. With the emission ratios characteristic of humid savanna and flaming conditions (CO/CO₂ of 6.1% at the ground and 8% for airborne measurements), we propose a set of new emission factors, taking into account the burning efficiency which is about 80%: 74.4% of the carbon content of the savanna biomass is released to the atmosphere in the form of CO₂, 4.6% as CO, 0.2% as CH₄, 0.5% as NMHC and 0.7% as aerosols. 17.2% of the nitrogen content of the biomass is released as NO_x, 3.5% as N₂O, 0.6% as NH₃ and 0.5% as soluble aerosols.     

Averaging Intervals For Spectral Analysis Of Nonstationary Turbulence

We formulate a method for determining the smallest time interval Tover which a turbulence time series can be averaged to decompose it intoinstantaneous mean and random components. From the random part the method defines the optimal interval (or averaging window) AW over which this part should be averaged to obtain the instantaneous spectrum. Both T and AW vary randomly with time and depend on physical properties of the turbulence. T also depends on the accuracy of the measurements and is thus independent of AW. Interesting features of the method are its real-time capability and the non-equality between AW and T.     

Three-dimensional modeling of synthetic cold fronts interacting with northern Alpine foehn

Summary The effect of the Alpine orography on prototype cold fronts approaching from the west is investigated by three-dimensional numerical model simulations. The numerical experiments cover a range of parameter constellations which govern the prefrontal environment of the front. Especially, the appearance and intensity of prefrontal northern Alpine foehn varies from case to case.The behaviour of a cold front north of the Alps depends much on the prefrontal condition it encounters. It is found that prefrontal foehn can either accelerate or retard the approaching front.An important feature is the pressure depression along the northern Alpine rim that results from the southerly foehn flow. In cases where this depression compensates the eastward directed pressure gradient associated with the largescale flow, the front tends to accelerate and the foehn breaks down as soon as the front passes. In contrast, the foehn prevents the front from a rapid eastward propagation if it is connected with a strong southerly wind component.No-foehn experiments are performed for comparison, where either the mountains are removed, or the static stability is set to neutral. Also shown are effects of different crossfrontal temperature contrasts.List of Symbols c _F propagation speed of a front - x, y horizontal grid spacing (cartesian system) - , horizontal grid spacing (geographic system) - t time step - z vertical grid spacing (cartesian system) - cross-frontal potential temperature difference - _i potential temperature step at an inversion - E turbulent kinetic energy - f Coriolis parameter - FGP frontogenesis parameter (see section 2.2) - g gravity acceleration (g=9.81 m s^–2) - vertical gradient of potential temperature - h terrain elevation (above MSL) - h _i height of an inversion (h _i =1000 m MSL) - H height of model lid (H=9000 m MSL) - K _M exchange coefficient of momentum - K _H exchange coefficient of heat and moisture - longitude - N Brunt-Väisäla-frequency - p pressure - Exner function (=T/) - latitude - q _v specific humidity - R _d gas constant of dry air (R _d =287.06 J kg^–1 K^–1) - density of dry air - t time - T temperature - potential temperature - TFP thermal front parameter (see section 2.2) - u, v, w cartesian wind components - u _g ,v _g geostrophic wind components - horizontal wind vector - x, y, z cartesian coordinates Abbreviations GND (above) ground level - MSL (above) mean sea level - UTC universal time coordinated With 20 Figures     

Effects of heat and water vapor transport on eddy covariance measurement of CO2 fluxes

Flux densities of carbon dioxide were measured over an arid, vegetation-free surface by eddy covariance techniques and by a heat budget-profile method, in which CO₂ concentration gradients were specified in terms of mixing ratios. This method showed negligible fluxes of CO₂, consistent with the bareness of the experimental site, whereas the eddy covariance measurements indicated large downward fluxes of CO₂. These apparently conflicting observations are in quantitative agreement with the results of a recent theory which predicts that whenever there are vertical fluxes of sensible or latent heat, a mean vertical velocity is developed. This velocity causes a mean vertical convective mass flux (= _cw for CO₂, in standard notation). The eddy covariance technique neglects this mean convective flux and measures only the turbulent flux _c w. Thus, when the net flux of CO₂ is zero, the eddy covariance method indicates an apparent flux which is equal and opposite to the mean convective flux, i.e., _c w = – _c w. Corrections for the mean convective flux are particularly significant for CO₂ because _cw and _c w are often of similar magnitude. The correct measurement of the net CO₂ flux by eddy covariance techniques requires that the fluxes of sensible and latent heat be measured as well.     

Bistability of the thermohaline circulation identified through comprehensive 2-parameter sweeps of an efficient climate model

The effect of changes in zonal and meridional atmospheric moisture transports on Atlantic overturning is investigated. Zonal transports are considered in terms of net moisture export from the Atlantic sector. Meridional transports are related to the vigour of the global hydrological cycle. The equilibrium thermohaline circulation (THC) simulated with an efficient climate model is strongly dependent on two key parameters that control these transports: an anomaly in the specified Atlantic–Pacific moisture flux (F_a) and atmospheric moisture diffusivity (K_q). In a large ensemble of spinup experiments, the values of F_a and K_q are varied by small increments across wide ranges, to identify sharp transitions of equilibrium THC strength in a 2-parameter space (between Conveyor On and Off states). Final states from this ensemble of simulations are then used as the initial states for further such ensembles. Large differences in THC strength between ensembles, for identical combinations of F_a and K_q, reveal the co-existence of two stable THC states (Conveyor On and Off)—i.e. a bistable regime. In further sensitivity experiments, the model is forced with small, temporary freshwater perturbations to the mid-latitude North Atlantic, to establish the minimum perturbation necessary for irreversible THC collapse in this bistable regime. A threshold is identified in terms of the forcing duration required. The model THC, in a Conveyor On state, irreversibly collapses to a Conveyor Off state under additional freshwater forcing of just 0.1 Sv applied for around 100 years. The irreversible collapse is primarily due to a positive feedback associated with suppressed convection and reduced surface heat loss in the sinking region. Increased atmosphere-to-ocean freshwater flux, under a collapsed Conveyor, plays a secondary role.     

Stability Analysis of the Climate-Vegetation System in the Northern High Latitudes

The stability of the climate-vegetation system in the northern high latitudesis analysed with three climate system models of different complexity: A comprehensive 3-dimensional model of the climate system, GENESIS-IBIS, and two Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs), CLIMBER-2 andMoBidiC. The biogeophysical feedback in the latitudinal belt 60–70° N, although positive, is not strong enough to support multiple steady states: A unique equilibriumin the climate-vegetation system is simulated by all the models on a zonal scale for present-day climate and doubled CO₂ climate.EMIC simulations with decreased insolation also reveal a unique steady state. However, the climate sensitivity to tree cover, T_F, exhibits non-linear behaviour within the models. For GENESIS-IBIS and CLIMBER-2, T_F islower for doubled CO₂ climate than for present-day climate due to a shorter snow season and increased relative significance ofthe hydrological effect of forest cover. For the EMICs, T_F is higher for low tree fraction than for high treefraction, mainly due to a time shift in spring snow melt in response to changes in tree cover. The climate sensitivity to tree coveris reduced when thermohaline circulation feedbacks are accounted for in the EMIC simulations. Simpler parameterizations of oceanic processes have opposite effects on T_F: T_F is lower in simulations with fixed SSTs and higher in simulations with mixed layer oceans. Experiments with transient CO₂ forcing show climate and vegetation not in equilibrium in the northern high latitudes at the end of the 20thcentury. The delayed response of vegetation and accelerated global warming lead to rather abrupt changes in northern vegetation cover in the first halfof the 21st century, when vegetation cover changes at double the present day rate.     

Influences on surface energy fluxes in simulated present and doubled CO2 climates

The surface energy fluxes simulated by the CSIRO9 Mark 1 GCM for present and doubled CO₂ conditions are analyzed. On the global scale the climatological flux fields are similar to those from four GCMs studied previously. A diagnostic calculation is used to provide estimates of the radiative forcing by the GCM atmosphere. For 1 × CO₂, in the global and annual mean, cloud produces a net cooling at the surface of 31 W m^–2. The clear-sky longwave surface greenhouse effect is 311 W m^–2, while the corresponding shortwave term is –79 W m^–2. As for the other GCM results, the CSIRO9 CO₂ surface warming (global mean 4.8°C) is closely related to the increased downward longwave radiation (LW ). Global mean net cloud forcing changes little. The contrast in warming between land and ocean, largely due to the increase in evaporative cooling (E) over ocean, is highlighted. In order to further the understanding of influences on the fluxes, simple physically based linear models are developed using multiple regression. Applied to both 1 × CO₂ and CO₂ December–February mean tropical fields from CSIRO9, the linear models quite accurately (3–5 W m^–2 for 1 × CO₂ and 2–3 W m^–2 for CO₂) relate LW and net shortwave radiation to temperature, surface albedo, the water vapor column, and cloud. The linear models provide alternative estimates of radiative forcing terms to those from the diagnostic calculation. Tropical mean cloud forcings are compared. Over land, E is well correlated with soil moisture, and sensible heat with air-surface temperature difference. However an attempt to relate the spatial variation of LWt within the tropics to that of the nonflux fields had little success. Regional changes in surface temperature are not linearly related to, for instance, changes in cloud or soil moisture.     

The Influence of O3, Relative Humidity, NO and NO2 on the Oxidation of α-Pinene and Δ3-Carene

Upto 13% of -pinene and ³-carene had reacted after 213 s in this dark experimental set-up, where O₃, NO and NO₂ were mixed with terpenes at different relative humidities (RHs). The different experiments were planned according to an experimental design, where O₃, NO₂, NO, RH and reaction time were varied between high and low settings (25 and 75 ppb, 15 and 42%, 44 and 213 s). An increased amount of -pinene and ³-carene reacted in the chamber was observed, when the level of O₃, NO and reaction time was increased and RH was decreased. In the study, it was found that different interactions affected the amount of terpene reacted as well. These interactions were between O₃ and NO, O₃ and reaction time, NO and RH, and between NO and reaction time.     

Methane,carbon monoxide and light non-methane hydrocarbon emissions from African savanna burnings during the FOS/DECAFE experiment

Atmospheric samples from savanna burnings were collected in the Ivory Coast during two campaigns in January 1989 and January 1991. About 30 nonmethane hydrocarbons from C₂ to C₆, carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide and methane were measured from the background and also at various distances from the burning. Concentrations in the fire plume reached ppmv levels for C₂-C₄ hydrocarbons, and 5300, 500 and 93 ppmv for CO₂, CO and CH₄ respectively. The excess in the mixing ratios of these gases above their background level is used to derive emission factors relative to CO and CO₂. For the samples collected immediately in the fire plume, a differentiation between high and low combustion efficiency conditions is made by considering the CO/CO₂ ratio. Ethene (C₂H₄), acetylene (C₂H₂), ethane (C₂H₆) and propene (C₃H₆) are the major NMHC produced in the flaming stage, whereas a different pattern with an increasing contribution of alkanes is observed in samples typical of post flaming processes. A strong correlation between methane and carbon monoxide suggests that these compounds are produced during the same stage of the combustion. In samples collected at a distance from the fire and integrated over a period of 30 minutes, the composition is very similar to that of flaming. NMHC/CO₂ is of the order of 0.7%, CH₄/CO₂ of the order of 0.4% and CO/CO₂ of the order of 6.3%. From this study, a global production by African savanna fires is derived: 65 Tg of CO-C, 4.2 Tg of CH₄-C and 6.7 Tg of NMHC-C. Whereas acetylene can be used as a conservative tracer of the fire plumes, only ethene, propene and butenes can be considered in terms of their direct photochemical impact.     

On characteristics of wind direction fluctuations in the surface layer

It is shown that the ratio of standard deviation of lateral velocity to the friction velocity, /u _*, and therefore wind direction fluctuations, are sensitive to mesoscale terrain properties. Under neutral conditions, /u _* is almost 40% larger in rolling terrain than over a horizontal surface. In the lee of a low mountain, the fluctuations may be 2.5 times as strong as over horizontal terrain. In contrast, vertical velocity fluctuations are little influenced by mesoscale terrain features.Now with Air Weather Service, Offutt AFB, Omaha, Nebraska.     

Variations in atmospheric CO2 at the Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan

Since April 1986, measurements of the CO₂ concentration in the surface air have been conducted at the Meteorological Research Institure (MRI, 36°04 N, 140°07 E, 25 m above sea level) in Tsukuba, located 50 km northeast of Tokyo, Japan. The CO₂ data measured over times between 11:00 Japan Standard Time (JST) and 16:00 JST (C _N ) were considered to be representative of the air (within a few ppmv) in the planetary boundary layer. To evaluate the representative CO₂ level on a spatial scale larger than that of the C _N record, the CO₂ data with hour-to-hour variation less than 1 ppmv were selected (C _P ). Comparison of these data with those of Ryori (39°02 N, 141°50 E), a continental station operated by the Japan Meteorological Agency, indicates that the C _P record provides a representative CO₂ level in the air on spatial scales of at least a few hundred kilometers.The C _N record allows an investigation of the internanual changes in photosynthesis/respiration against changes in climatological parameters. Within a small temperature anomaly (ca.±1 °C) respiration is sensitive to the temperature change, while photosynthesis is less sensitive. When the temperature anomaly is large, however, photosynthesis and respiration tend to be competitive.     

A Comparative Analysis of Transpiration and Bare Soil Evaporation

Transpiration E^v and bare soil evaporation E^b processes are comparatively analysed assuming homogeneous and inhomogeneous areal distributions of volumetric soil moisture content . For a homogeneous areal distribution of we use a deterministic model, while for inhomogeneous distributions a statistical-deterministic diagnostic surface energy balance model is applied. The areal variations of are simulated by Monte-Carlo runs assuming normal distributions of .The numerical experiments are performed for loam. In the experiments we used different parameterizations for vegetation and bare soil surface resistances and strong atmospheric forcing. According to the results theE^v()-^Eb() differences are great, especially in dry conditions. In spite of this, the available energy flux curves of vegetation A^v() and bare soil A^b() surfaces differ much less than the E^v() and ^Eb() curves. The results suggest that E^v is much more non-linearly related to environmental conditions than ^Eb. Both E^v and ^Eb depend on the distribution of , the wetness regime and the parameterization used. With the parameterizations, ^Eb showed greater variations than E^v. These results are valid when there are no advective effects or mesoscale circulation patterns and the stratification is unstable.     

A numerical modeling study of the marine boundary layer over the Gulf Stream during cold air advection

A two-dimensional mesoscale model has been developed to simulate the air flow over the Gulf Stream area where typically large gradients in surface temperature exist in the winter. Numerical simulations show that the magnitude and the maximum height of the mesoscale circulation that develops downwind of the Gulf Stream depends on both the initial geostrophic wind and the large-scale moisture. As expected, a highly convective Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) develops over this area and it was found that the Gulf Stream plays an important role in generating the strong upward heat fluxes causing a farther seaward penetration as cold air advection takes place. Numerical results agree well with the observed surface fluxes of momentum and heat and the mesoscale variation of vertical velocities obtained using Doppler Radars for a typical cold air outbreak. Precipitation pattern predicted by the numerical model is also in agreement with the observations during the Genesis of Atlantic Lows Experiment (GALE).List of Symbols u east-west velocity [m s^–1] - v north-south velocity [m s^–1] - vertical velocity in coordinate [m s^–1] - w vertical velocity inz coordinate [m s^–1] - gq potential temperature [K] - q moisture [kg kg^–1] - scaled pressure [J kg^–1 K^–1] - U _g the east-south component of geostrophic wind [m s^–1] - V _g the north-south component of geostrophic wind [m s^–1] - vertical coordinate following terrain - x east-west spatial coordinate [m] - y north-south spatial coordinate [m] - z vertical spatial coordinate [m] - t time coordinate [s] - g gravity [m² s^–1] - E terrain height [m] - H total height considered in the model [m] - q _s saturated moisture [kg kg^–1] - p pressure [mb] - p ₀₀ reference pressure [mb] - P precipitation [kg m^–2] - vertical lapse rate for potential temperature [K km^–1] - L latent heat of condensation [J kg^–1] - C _p specific heat at constant pressure [J kg^–1 K^–1] - R gas constant for dry air [J kg^–1 K^–1] - R _v gas constant for water vapor [J kg^–1 K^–1] - f Coriolis parameter (2 sin ) [s^–1] - angular velocity of the earth [s^–1] - latitude [^o] - K _H horizontal eddy exchange coefficient [m² s^–1] - t integration time interval [s] - x grid interval distance inx coordinate [m] - y grid interval distance iny coordinate [m] - adjustable coefficient inK _H - subgrid momentum flux [m² s^–2] - subgrid potential temperature flux [m K s^–1] - subgrid moisture flux [m kg kg^–1 s^–1] - u _* friction velocity [m s^–1] - _* subgrid flux temperature [K] - q _* subgrid flux moisture [kg kg^–1] - w _* subgrid convective velocity [m s^–1] - z ₀ surface roughness [m] - L Monin stability length [m] - _s surface potential temperature [K] - k von Karman's constant (0.4) - v air kinematic viscosity coefficient [m² s^–1] - K _M subgrid vertical eddy exchange coefficient for momentum [m² s^–1] - K subgrid vertical eddy exchange coefficient for heat [m² s^–1] - K _q subgrid vertical eddy exchange coefficient for moisture [m² s^–1] - z _i the height of PBL [m] - h _s the height of surface layer [m]     

Particulate content of savanna fire emissions

As part of the FOS-DECAFE experiment at Lamto (Ivory Coast) in January 1991, various aerosol samples were collected at ground level near prescribed fires or under local background conditions, to characterize the emissions of particulate matter from the burning of savanna vegetation. This paper deals with total aerosol (TPM) and carbon measurements. Detailed trace element and polycyclic hydrocarbon data are discussed in other papers presented in this issue.Near the fire plumes, the aerosols from biomass burning are primarily of a carbonaceous nature (C%70% of the aerosol mass) and consist predominantly of submicron particles (more than 90% in mass.) They are characterized by their organic nature (black to total carbon ratio Cb/Ct in the range 3–20%) and their high potassium content (K/Cb0.6). These aerosols undergo aging during their first minutes in the atmosphere causing slight alterations in their size distribution and chemical composition. However, they remain enriched in potassium (K/Cb=0.21) and pyrene, a polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon, such that both of these species may be used as tracers of savanna burning aerosols. We show that during this period of the year, the background atmosphere experiences severe pollution from both terrigenous sources and regional biomass burning (44% of the aerosol). Daynight variations of the background carbon concentrations suggest that fire ignition and spreading occur primarily during the day. Simultaneous TPM and CO₂ real-time measurements point to a temporal and spatial heterogeneity of the burning so that the ratio of the above background concentrations (TPM/CO₂) varies from 2 to 400 g/kg C. Smoldering processes are intense sources of particles but particulate emissions may also be important during the rapidly spreading heading fires in connection with the generation of heavy brown smoke. We propose emission factor values (EF) for aerosols from the savanna biomass burning aerosols: EF (TPM)=11.4±4.6 and 69±25 g/kg C_{dry plant} and EF(Ct)=7.4±3.4 and 56±16 g C/kg C_{dry plant} for flaming and smoldering processes respectively. In these estimates, the range of uncertainty is mostly due to the intra-fire variability. These values are significantly lower than those reported in the literature for the combustion of other types of vegetation. But due to the large amounts of vegetation biomass being burnt in African savannas, the annual flux of particulate carbon into the atmosphere is estimated to be of the order of 8 Tg C, which rivals particulate carbon emissions from anthropogenic activities in temperate regions.     

The use of σ T as a temperature scale in the atmospheric surface layer

The standard deviation of temperature _T is proposed as a temperature scale and as a velocity scale to describe the behaviour of turbulent flows in the Atmospheric Surface Layer (ASL), instead of _* andu _* of the Monin—Obukhov similarity theory, and ofT _f andU _f used for free convection stability conditions. On the basis of experimental evidence reported in the literature, it is shown that _T T _f andv _* U _f in the free convection region, and _{T *} andv _* U _* in nearneutral and stable conditions. This implies that the proposed scales can be applied for all stabilities. Furthermore, a new length scale is proposed and its relation with Obukhov length is given. Also, a simple semi-empirical expression is presented with which _T andv _* can be evaluated in a rather simple way. Some examples of practical applications are given, e.g., a stability classification for unstable conditions.     

On the Response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Greenhouse Climate Change

Numerical computations are performed with the three-dimensional polythermal ice-sheet model SICOPOLIS in order to investigate the possible impact of a greenhouse-gas-induced climate change on the Greenland ice sheet. The assumed increase of the mean annual air temperature above the ice covers a range from T = 1°C to 12°C, and several parameterizations for the snowfall and the surface melting are considered. The simulated shrinking of the ice sheet is a smooth function of the temperature rise, indications for the existence of critical thresholds of the climate input are not found. Within 1000 model years, the ice-volume decrease is limited to 10% of the present volume for T 3°C, whereas the most extreme scenario, T = 12°C, leads to an almost entire disintegration, which corresponds to a sea-level equivalent of 7 m. The different snowfall and melting parameterizations yield an uncertainty range of up to 20% of the present ice volume after 1000 model years.     

A statistical-dynamical downscaling procedure for global climate simulations

Summary A statistical-dynamical downscaling procedure for global climate simulations is described. The procedure is based on the assumption that any regional climate is associated with a specific frequency distribution of classified large-scale weather situations. The frequency distributions are derived from multi-year episodes of low resolution global climate simulations. Highly resolved regional distributions of wind and temperature are calculated with a regional model for each class of large-scale weather situation. They are statistically evaluated by weighting them with the according climate-specific frequency. The procedure is exemplarily applied to the Alpine region for a global climate simulation of the present January climate.List of Symbols west-east mesh size in geographic coordinates south-north mesh size in geographic coordinates N number of large-scale weather classes n number of regional-scale event classes p pressure P probability Ø large-scale event regional-scale event q _v specific humidity potential temperature u west-east wind component v south-north wind componentAbbreviations AGL above ground level - LT local time - UTC universal time coordinated With 13 Figures     

Modelling the equilibrium and transient responses of global temperature to past and future trace gas concentrations

Recent works with energy balance climate models and oceanic general circulation models have assessed the potential role of the world ocean for climatic changes on a decadal to secular time scale. This scientific challenge is illustrated by estimating the response of the global temperature to changes in trace gas concentration from the pre-industrial epoch to the middle of the next century. A simple energetic formulation is given to estimate the effect on global equilibrium temperature of a fixed instantaneous radiative forcing and of a time-dependent radiative forcing. An atmospheric energy balance model couple to a box-advection-diffusion ocean model is then used to estimate the past and future global climalic transient response to trace-gas concentration changes. The time-dependent radiative perturbation is estimated from a revised approximate radiative parameterization, and the recent reference set of trace gas scenarios proposed by Wuebbles et al. (1984) are adopted as standard scenarios. Similar computations for the past and future have recently been undertaken by Wigley (1985), but using a purely diffusive ocean and slightly different trace gas scenarios. The skill of the socalled standard experiment is finally assessed by examining the model sensitivity of different parameters such as the equilibrium surface air temperature change for a doubled CO₂ concentration [T _ae (2×CO₂)], the heat exchange with the deeper ocean and the trace gas scenarios. For T _ae (2×CO₂) between 1 K and 5 K, the following main results are obtained: (i) for a pre-industrial CO₂, concentration of 270 ppmv, the surface air warming between 1850 and 1980 ranges between 0.4 and 1.4 K (if a pre-industrial CO₂ concentration of 290 ppmv is chosen, the range is between 0.3 and 1 K); (ii) by comparison with the instantaneous equilibrium computations, the deeper ocean inertia induces a delay which amounts to between 6 years [for lower T _ae (2×CO₂)] and 23 years [for higher Tae(2×CO₂)] in 1980; (iii) for the standard future CO₂ and other trace gas scenarios of Wuebbles et al., the surface air warming between 1980 and 2050 is calculated to range between 0.9 and 3.4 K, with a delay amounting to between 7 years and 32 years in 2050 when compared to equilibrium computations.