Variations in climate since 1602 as reconstructed from tree rings

Spatial anomalies of tree-ring chronologies can provide information on high-frequency spatial anomalies in paleoclimate representing droughts, colder-than-normal intervals, and other synoptic-scale features. Examples are presented in which 65 tree-ring chronologies are calibrated with spatial anomalies in North American meteorological records of seasonal temperature and precipitation, and with sea-level pressure over the North American and North Pacific sectors. Multivariate transfer functions are obtained that scale and convert the past spatial variations in the tree-ring record into estimates of past variations in the meteorological record. Objective verifications of the reconstructions are obtained using independent meteorological observations for time periods other than those used in the calibration. Historical information or other proxy data from the 19th century are also used for verifying the decadal (or longer) and regional reconstructions and for identifying strengths and weaknesses of the various sources of information. The reconstructed winter and summer temperatures for the United States and southwestern Canada and winter precipitation for the Columbia Basin and California during the 17th through 19th centuries were found to differ from the 20th century means with large-scale variations evident. Extreme winters similar to 1976–1977 are also identified and found to be more frequent in the past, especially in the 17th century. The climatic reconstructions in this time domain are dominated by high-frequency, synoptic-scale fluctuations that can be interpreted as cyclonic-scale changes in atmospheric circulation. Such reconstructions may be useful for testing various climatic models and estimates developed primarily from 20th-century meteorological data against the longer estimated record for the 17th through 19th centuries.     

May-June precipitation reconstruction of southwestern Anatolia, Turkey during the last 900 years from tree rings

A May-June precipitation reconstruction (AD 1097-2000) has been developed for southwestern Anatolia in Turkey, the longest reported to date in this region. The reconstruction was derived from a regional Juniperus excelsa chronology that was built from material sampled at four sites in the Antalya and Mersin Districts. The regional tree-ring chronology accounts for 51% of the variance of instrumentally observed May-June precipitation. The years AD 1518 to 1587 are the most humid period in the reconstruction, coinciding with a major shift in European climate. The driest 70-year period in the reconstruction is AD 1195 to 1264. The period AD 1591-1660 represents the third driest and was characterized by instability climatically, politically, and socially in Anatolia.     

近500年西沙群岛海面温度年际变化的珊瑚记录及其环境意义

在南海西沙群岛（15.76°~17.13°N,111.18°~112.90°E）5条年分辨率的滨珊瑚生长率（即每年生长宽度,mm/a或cm/a）序列和4个U-Th年龄的基础上,根据珊瑚生长率与器测海温的显著正相关关系特征并建立的转换方程,定量重建了近500年（1520~2007 A.D.）连续的年分辨率的西沙海温历史。这一时期的海温变化可以分为两个主要阶段：1）1520~1825 A.D.以小幅波动为主,略有下降（-0.21±0.07 ℃）。2）1826~2007 A.D.整体呈上升趋势（0.93±0.15 ℃）,其中1826~1899 A.D.快速上升（1.0±0.13 ℃）;1900~1971 A.D.小幅波动,略有下降（-0.16±0.19 ℃）;1972~2007 A.D.再次上升（0.55±0.30 ℃）。同时,近500年来西沙海温具有显著的年际、十年际和多年代际周期,分别对应于ENSO、太阳活动和太平洋多年代际涛动（PDO）。珊瑚生长率记录的西沙海域持续升温始于1820年代后期,与西太平洋暖池区的升温起始时间相当,但略早于全球其他区域,体现了南海海域对赤道海域海洋环境变化的敏感响应。

     

晚冰期以来青藏高原降水序列集成重建

选取青藏高原36条（34个地点）由孢粉已重建的降水序列（8条）和化石孢粉谱（28条）,分别采用直接提取和现代类比法获得1852个具有年代的定量降水数据,以高原4个分区为单位,建立青藏高原晚冰期以来古降水数据集。构建分区古降水空间模拟-多区面积加权的集成方法,即借助GIS分析,基于现代高原降水空间分布的地理因子模拟,集成重建晚冰期以来高原古降水序列。结果表明：16~12 ka B.P.,高原总体降水量较少,其中16 ka B.P.不到200 mm,约为现代降水量的一半,15~13 ka B.P.后降水显著增长,较前期上升70 mm;13~12 ka B.P.,又跌至220 mm,较现代低100 mm。进入全新世后,降水量迅速增长,降水在全新世早期的9.2~8.7 ka B.P.即达到最大值,高出现代70 mm,9.2~5.0 ka B.P.为全新世湿润期,平均高出现代50 mm;5 ka B.P.之后,降水波动较小,与现代基本持平。集成降水与其他高低分辨率环境记录有很好的可比性,说明集成序列有很好的代表性和一定的准确性。此外,高原降水变化区域差异明显,全新世最大降水呈现出西早东晚,西南季风（ISM）区早于东南季风（EASM）区的特点,高原西部和南部全新世早期9 ka B.P.左右即达极大值,而高原东缘迟至全新世中期的8.0~7.5 ka B.P.;降水增加最为明显的是高原西北部,最盛期降水约高出为现代的1倍,高原东部和南部现季风控制区域,只比现代高出0.2倍。

     

Synchronous variability changes in Alpine temperature and tree-ring data over the past two centuries

The understanding of extremes and their temporal distribution is useful in characterizing the behaviour of the climate system, and necessary for understanding their social and economic costs and risks. This task is analogous to the study of pointer years in dendrochronological investigations. Commonly used dendroclimatological methods, however, tend to result in an equalization of variance throughout the record by normalizing variability within moving windows. Here, we analyse a larger network of high-elevation temperature-sensitive tree sites from the European Alps processed to preserve the relative frequency and magnitude of extreme events. In so doing, temporal changes in year-to-year tree-ring width variability were found. These decadal length periods of increased or decreased likelihood of extremes coincide with variability measures from a long-instrumental summer temperature record representative of high-elevation conditions in the Alps. Intervention analysis, using an F-test to identify shifts in variance, on both the tree-ring and instrumental series, resulted in the identification of common transitional years. Based on a well-replicated network of sites reflecting common climatic variation, our study demonstrates that the annual growth rings of trees can be utilized to quantify past frequency and amplitude changes in extreme variability. Furthermore, the approach outlined is suited to address questions about the role of external forcing, ocean-atmosphere interactions, or synoptic scale changes in determining patterns of observed extremes prior to the instrumental period.     

云南近5个半世纪雨季同旱涝空间模态的时间变化

旱涝灾害是云南的主要气象灾害,严重制约了云南社会经济的发展。文章根据云南21个地区来自历史文献资料的旱涝指数、树木年轮重建的帕默尔干旱指数及观测降水数据（1958~2012 A.D.）,采用五级旱涝指数分类系统将其归一化并应用反距离加权插值补充历史文献缺失的记录,最终获得21个地区近5个半世纪（1470~2012 A.D.）完整的雨季旱涝指数序列。应用主成分分析对该旱涝指数数据集作分析以揭示云南旱涝的主要空间模态,并应用系统突变检测、小波分析等方法对主要空间模态的得分作分析以探讨其时间变化特征和周期性。结果显示,主成分分析得出的第一主成分（解释总方差的50.9%）揭示了空间一致性模态,说明一致性旱涝（同旱同涝）是云南过去5个半世纪旱涝的主要空间模态。第一主成分得分显示了3个阶段（1470~1680 A.D.、1681~1910 A.D.和1911~2012 A.D.）的旱涝状况,活跃的1470~1680 A.D.出现较多极端、严重旱涝以及持续数年的云南大旱和大涝,平静的1681~1910 A.D.少见旱涝灾害,又复活跃的最近一个世纪（1911~2012 A.D.）见到较多的干旱,在2009~2012出现持续4年的云南大旱。小波分析结果表明,云南旱涝存在3~7 a、10~15 a和30~50 a周期变化,3~7 a周期贯穿近5个半世纪,显著的10~15 a和30~50 a涛动出现在1580~1750 A.D.和1470~1700 A.D.。将其与一系列气候代用指标和大型气候型的比较表明,云南雨季旱涝主要受控于南亚夏季风,而过去5个半世纪的南亚夏季风主要受ENSO和IOD的年际变化及PDO和AMO的年代际变化影响。

     

Atmospheric C variations derived from tree rings during the early Younger Dryas

Atmospheric radiocarbon variations over the Younger Dryas interval, from 13,000 to 11,600 cal yr BP, are of immense scientific interest because they reveal crucial information about the linkages between climate, ocean circulation and the carbon cycle. However, no direct and reliable atmospheric ¹⁴C records based on tree rings for the entire Younger Dryas have been available. In this paper, we present (1) high-precision ¹⁴C measurements on the extension of absolute tree-ring chronology from 12,400 to 12,560 cal yr BP and (2) high-precision, high-resolution atmospheric ¹⁴C record derived from a 617-yr-long tree-ring chronology of Huon pine from Tasmania, Australia, spanning the early Younger Dryas. The new tree-ring ¹⁴C records bridge the current gap in European tree-ring radiocarbon chronologies during the early Younger Dryas, linking the floating Lateglacial Pine record to the absolute tree-ring timescale. A continuous and reliable atmospheric ¹⁴C record for the past 14,000 cal yr BP including the Younger Dryas is now available. The new records indicate that the abrupt rise in atmospheric Δ¹⁴C associated with the Younger Dryas onset occurs at 12,760 cal yr BP, 240 yrs later than that recorded in Cariaco varves, with a smaller magnitude of 40‰ followed by several centennial Δ¹⁴C variations of 20–25‰. Comparing the tree-ring Δ¹⁴C to marine-derived Δ¹⁴C and modelled Δ¹⁴C based on ice-core ¹⁰Be fluxes, we conclude that changes in ocean circulation were mainly responsible for the Younger Dryas onset, while a combination of changes in ocean circulation and ¹⁴C production rate were responsible for atmospheric Δ¹⁴C variations for the remainder of the Younger Dryas.     

Climate variability in the SE Alps of Italy over the past 17 000 years reconstructed from a stalagmite record

Stalagmite SV1 from Grotta Savi, located at the SE margin of the European Alps (Italy), is the first Alpine speleothem that continuously spans the past c . 17kyr. Extension rate and δ¹⁸O_c record for the Lateglacial probably reflect a combination of temperature and rainfall, with rainfall exerting the dominant effect. Low speleothem calcite δ¹⁸ O_c values were recorded from c . 14.5 and 12.35 kyr, during GI-1 (Bølling— Allerød) interstadial, which in our interpretation, was warm and wet. The GS-1 (Younger Dryas) was characterized by a shift to heavier δ¹⁸ O_c, coinciding with δ¹³C_c enrichment and extremely low extension rate (<8 μm/year). These characteristics indicate that GS-1 climate was cool and dry in the SE Alps. Calibration using historical data revealed that there is a positive δ¹⁸O_c/dT relationship. A 1°C rise in mean annual temperature should correspond to c . 2.85% increase of SV-1 δc¹⁸O_c. We reconstructed a slow and steady temperature rise of c . 0.5°C since 10 kyr BP, in broad agreement with reconstructions from pollen data for SE Europe. Stalagmite SV1 indicates that climate variability in the SE Alps has been influenced by the Mediterranean Sea for the past c . 17 kyr.     

Caribbean hydrological variability during the Holocene as reconstructed from crater lakes on the island of Grenada

Contemporary precipitation patterns in the Caribbean region are spatially variable, and the small number of Holocene paleoclimatic records may not adequately capture patterns of variation in the past. The hydrological history of Grenada was inferred from paleolimnological analyses of sediment cores from two crater lakes on the island. The basins were formed by volcanic activity some time during the Last Termination, but were dry between ca. 13 000 and ca. 7200 cal. a BP. After filling, the lakes were initially very shallow, and sedimentation was interrupted by a hiatus ca. 6300–5500 cal. a BP, followed by deposition of a thick tephra in both sites. After 5500 cal. a BP, lake level shows considerable multi‐centennial variability, superimposed upon a long‐term trend of generally higher lake level after 3200 cal. a BP. The pattern of lake‐level variation in Grenada shows some similarity with other Caribbean paleoclimatic records in terms of the timing of transitions, but differs from several classic studies in the sign of inferred precipitation change. The differences among records may reflect spatially variable precipitation patterns in the past in response to the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and to sea surface temperature influences on the trade winds and Caribbean low‐level jet. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparisons of drought variability between central High Asia and monsoonal Asia: Inferred from tree rings

Severe drought is a serious natural disaster that frequently strikes East Asia, highlighting the need to understanding its drought regime and the associations with Asian monsoon. Tree-ring-based drought reconstructions provide invaluable paleoclimatic archives for detecting regional and large-scale drought variability and their potential forcings. We herein reviewed many drought reconstructions from central High Asia and monsoonal Asia and compared their similarities and differences, as well as their linkages to Asia monsoon. We compared the decadal-scale variability of six drought reconstructions for the central High Asia, where differing drought variations were found between the western and eastern portions. Seven drought reconstructions were reviewed for monsoonal Asia, from which a difference in drought variability was observed between the northern and southern parts. Therefore, we compared the drought variations of the four sub-regions of western and eastern parts of central High Asia, as well as northern and southern portions of monsoonal Asia. ENSO activity and sea surface temperature of western Pacific and northern Indian Oceans, coupled with Asian monsoon, play an important role in modulating drought variability of much area of the East Asia. An improved denser multi-index tree-ring network of longer length for East Asia is necessary for the establishment of more reliable large-scale drought reconstruction.     

Temperature variations recorded in Pinus tabulaeformis tree rings from the southern and northern slopes of the central Qinling Mountains, central China

The Qinling Mountain range constitutes a critical boundary for climate and vegetation distribution in eastern central mainland China owing to its importance as a geographic demarcation line. In this article, cores from 88 Chinese pines ( Pinus tabulaeformis ) from the southern (MW site) and northern (NWT site) slopes of the Qinling Mountains were used to reconstruct seasonal temperature variations. During the calibration period, significant correlations were found between ring width and the mean temperature from prior September to current April of 0.76 at the southern slope, and between ring width and the mean May–July temperature of 0.67 at the northern slope. The subsequent temperature reconstructions span 1760–2005 for the northern site and 1837–2006 for the southern site. Prior to the mid-20th century, low September–April temperatures were, in general, followed by high May–July temperatures, probably reflecting variations in the winter and summer monsoon. However, since the mid-20th century, both records show trends of a more pronounced increase in September–April temperature on the southern slope. The results provide independent support for the interpretation that recent warming is unusual in nature, coinciding with the observed record. The results compare well with tree-ring based reconstructions from the surrounding regions, suggesting regional signals in the Qinling Mountain reconstructions.     

Early-summer temperature variations over the past 563 yr inferred from tree rings in the Shaluli Mountains,southeastern Tibet Plateau

We developed a tree-ring chronology (AD 1446–2008) based on 75 cores from 37 Abies squamata Mast. trees from the Shaluli Mountains, southeastern Tibet Plateau, China, using signal-free methods, which are ideally suited to remove or reduce the distortion introduced during traditional standardization. This chronology correlates best with regional temperatures in June–July, which allowed us to develop a June–July temperature reconstruction that explained 51.2% of the variance in the instrumental record. The reconstruction showed seven cold periods and five warm periods. Cold periods were identified from AD 1472 to 1524, 1599 to 1653, 1661 to 1715, 1732 to 1828, 1837 to 1847, 1865 to 1876 and 1907 to 1926. Warm intervals occurred from AD 1446 to 1471, 1525 to 1598, 1716 to 1731, 1848 to 1864, 1877 to 1906 and 1927 to present. The reconstruction agrees well with nearby tree-ring-based temperature reconstructions. Spatial correlation analyses suggest that our reconstructions provide information on June–July temperature variability for the southeastern Tibetan Plateau and its vicinity. Spectral analyses revealed significant peaks at 2–6, 10.7, 51.2, 102.2 and 204.8 yr. The temperature variability in this area may be affected by ENSO, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and solar activity.     

3 Ma以来轨道尺度东亚冬季风演化的模拟研究

轨道尺度东亚冬季风变率对认识第四纪东亚环境演化和北半球冰盖演化具有重要的作用。文章利用德国波茨坦气候影响研究所的中等复杂程度地球系统模式(CLIMBER-2)对过去3 Ma气候和环境的模拟结果,探讨了轨道尺度东亚冬季风演化特征及其变化机制。采用两种指数反映东亚冬季风强度,分别指示中纬度西风强度(EAWMU)和东亚北风强度(EAWMV)。CLIMBER-2较好地模拟出了3 Ma以来地球冰期-间冰期旋回特征,以及第四纪以来全球变冷趋势。东亚冬季风在过去3 Ma以来呈现逐渐增强的趋势,EAWMV和EAWMU分别在约2.6 Ma和约1.5 Ma突然增强。EAWMV(EAWMU)在约2.2 Ma(约1.5 Ma)之前主要以20 ka岁差周期为主导,约2.2~1.0 Ma(约1.5~1.0 Ma)的转型期以41 ka倾角周期和20 ka岁差周期为主导,约1.0 Ma之后则均出现100 ka、41 ka和20 ka这3个轨道周期特征,并以100 ka偏心率周期为主导。在约2.2 Ma(约1.5 Ma)之前,EAWMV(EAWMU)主要受控于太阳辐射的直接强迫作用,北半球冰盖的作用相对较弱,在此之后北半球冰盖起主导作用,太阳辐射的直接强迫作用相对较弱。因此,第四纪东亚冬季风与北半球冰盖存在复杂的耦合关系,当冰盖规模较小时,它们的关系很弱;反之,当冰盖规模较大时,它们的联系加强。

     

A stable isotope record from freshwater lake shells of the eastern Tibetan Plateau, China, during the past two centuries

Lake Xingcuo is a small, closed, hardwater lake situated in the eastern Tibetan Plateau. Stable isotope data (δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C) from the freshwater snail Gyraulus sibirica (Dunker) in a 34-cm-long, radioactive isotope-dated sediment core represent the past 200 years of Lake Xingcuo environmental history. Carbon and oxygen isotope ratios in the shells of the snail yield information on the isotopic composition of the water in which the shell was formed, which in turn relates to climatic conditions prevailing during the snail's life-span. Living and fossil shells from Lake Xingcuo were collected. δ¹⁸O values in the living shells from Lake Xingcuo are in equilibrium with ambient waters, while δ¹³C values may trace snail dietary carbon. On comparing δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C in the shell of Gyraulus sibirica with monitored data for the period 1954-1995, we found that the δ¹⁸O composition in the shell is an efficient proxy revealing air temperature during the warmer months from April to September. There is a positive correlation between the δ¹⁸O in the shells of Gyraulus sibirica and the running average temperature of the warmer months. Climatic variability in the eastern Tibetan Plateau for the past two centuries has been inferred from the δ¹⁸O record from the freshwater snails in the sediments of Lake Xingcuo. As such, the last 200 years' palaeoclimatic record for this region can be separated into three periods representing oscillations between warm and cool conditions consistent with the Guliya ice record in the Tibetan Plateau.     

Sequences of Holocene forest history in the Scandes, inferred from megafossil Pinus sylvestris

Kullman, Leif 1987 03 01: Sequences of Holocene forest history in the Scandes, inferred from megafossil Pinus sylvestris. Boreas , Vol. 16, pp. 21–26. Oslo. ISSN 0300–9483.
Altogether 54 ¹⁴C-datings of megafossil Pinus sylvestris L. from above the present tree-limit in the southern Swedish Scandes were evaluated. The samples were discussed in relation to the present-day tree-limit of pine. Pine reached almost 200 m higher than at present shortly after deglaciation and remained at very high altitudes until at least 4,000–3,500 ¹⁴C years B.P. The conclusion was that the precise biological and climatological interpretation of these regionally sampled data is still obscure. It is impossible to judge whether clusters of megafossil pine represent periods relatively favourable for pine growth and reproduction or merely periods advantageous for production of dead wood and its long-term preservation. In terms of climate, these alternatives reasonably implicate widely different conditions.     

Environmental change and fire history of southern Patagonia (Argentina) during the last five centuries

Geochemical, geophysical, charcoal and pollen analyses from the very poorly investigated southern Patagonian steppe area show that in the vicinity of Laguna Potrok Aike (Santa Cruz Province, Argentina) and north of the Strait of Magellan the detectable impact of Europeans as explorers, settlers and farmers on fire intensity, vegetation and lake ecosystems started with first regional signs during the 1840s. A massive anthropogenic impact on a supra-regional scale followed as the result of the introduction of sheep farming at the end of the 19th century. Furthermore, since the first European explorations, fires in the steppe areas of southernmost Patagonia as recorded at Laguna Potrok Aike occurred contemporaneously in the steppe-forest ecotone further west and probably also in the Andean forest itself. Environmental changes which are not caused by anthropogenic influence are also revealed and were most likely the result of temperature variations and enhanced and reduced wind speeds, respectively. A fire event around AD 1600, before the arrival of European settlers, occurred during a dry period in the forest and steppe-forest ecotone and followed a wet phase in the steppe that caused favorable ignition conditions in all environments.     

晚第四纪印度洋-太平洋交汇区降水时空演化

印度洋-太平洋交汇区(印太交汇区)作为全球的水汽和热量中心,在多种时间尺度的气候变化中都扮演着重要的角色。然而,迄今该区域晚第四纪古降水时空演化仍不清楚,主要体现在不同区域或不同指标的降水重建结果出现明显不一致、甚至相反的现象。本研究基于印太交汇区已有重建记录,总结了该区域轨道和千年时间尺度上古降水演化特征及机制。在轨道时间尺度上,尽管该区域大多数降水记录都主要受到岁差主控的日射量变化影响,但其响应的相位关系却截然不同,推测是多种气候因子共同作用的结果。在千年时间尺度上,降水变化主要受控于北大西洋千年时间尺度气候突变事件导致的热带辐合带(ITCZ)迁移;其次,厄尔尼诺与南方涛动(ENSO)以及印度洋偶极子(IOD)的活动也对该地区局部降水有所贡献。另外,苏拉威西等印太交汇区中部区域的降水受到海平面变化的显著影响。总体来看,印太交汇区古降水记录仍存在重建指标单一、部分区域缺乏高分辨率记录等问题,降水空间分布及其变化机制也尚不明朗,需更多的高分辨率古降水重建以及模拟工作的开展去全方面阐明印太交汇区降水的时空演化特征及机制。

     

The temperature of Europe during the Holocene reconstructed from pollen data

We present the first area-average time series reconstructions of warmest month, coldest month and mean annual surface air temperatures across Europe during the last 12,000 years. These series are based on quantitative pollen climate reconstructions from over 500 pollen sites assimilated using an innovative four-dimensional gridding procedure. This approach combines three-dimensional spatial gridding with a fourth dimension represented by time, allowing data from irregular time series to be ‘focussed’ onto a regular time step. We provide six regional reconstructed temperature time series as well as summary time series for the whole of Europe. The results suggest major spatial and seasonal differences in Holocene temperature trends within a remarkably balanced regional and annual energy budget. The traditional mid-Holocene thermal maximum is observed only over Northern Europe and principally during the summer. This warming was balanced by a mid-Holocene cooling over Southern Europe, whilst Central Europe occupied an intermediary position. Changes in annual mean temperatures for Europe as a whole suggest an almost linear increase in thermal budget up to 7800 BP, followed by stable conditions for the remainder of the Holocene. This early Holocene warming and later equilibrium has been mainly modulated by increasing winter temperatures in the west, which have continued to rise at a progressively decreasing rate up to the present day.     

Relative humidity recorded in tree rings: A study along a precipitation gradient in the Olympic Mountains, Washington, USA

Humidity is one of the fundamental variables controlling the energy balance of the climate, and thus its reconstruction represents a significant aspect of paleoclimate studies. We here report a study of oxygen and hydrogen isotopic compositions of tree-ring cellulose along a precipitation gradient in the Olympic Mountains of Washington, USA, to examine whether and how the relative humidity is recorded in the cellulose. According to the physically-based model described in this paper, the relationship between δD and δ¹⁸O of cellulose should have the same slope as that in the relationship between δD and δ¹⁸O in the source water (∼8.8 for the local meteoric water) if there is no systematic variation in the mean relative humidity among study sites and no physiologic differences among trees. However, our isotopic analyses of cellulose yielded a slope of 17.4, significantly greater than the slope of the Local Meteoric Water Line. We show that to produce such a slope, a positive covariation between the relative humidity and the δD and δ¹⁸O in the source water is required across the precipitation gradient. This work suggests that the δD vs. δ¹⁸O relationship in tree rings can be a useful tool for paleohumidity reconstruction.