Cost–benefit analysis of flood mitigation measures: a case study employing high-performance hydraulic and damage modelling

Natural Hazards - This paper shows a detailed, advanced procedure to implement cost–benefit analyses (CBAs) in order to assess the effectiveness of flood mitigation measures. The town of Lodi...     

Optimal water and waste load allocation in reservoir–river systems: a case study

In this paper, a new methodology is developed for optimization of water and waste load allocation in reservoir–river systems considering the existing uncertainties in reservoir inflow, waste loads and water demands. A stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) model is used to optimize reservoir operation considering the inflow uncertainty, and another model called PSO-SA is developed and linked with the SDP model for optimizing water and waste load allocation in downstream river. In the PSO-SA model, a particle swarm optimization technique with a dynamic penalty function for handling the constraints is used to optimize water and waste load allocation policies. Also, a simulated annealing technique is utilized for determining the upper and lower bounds of constraints and objective function considering the existing uncertainties. As the proposed water and waste load allocation model has a considerable run-time, some powerful soft computing techniques, namely, Regression tree Induction (named M5P), fuzzy K-nearest neighbor, Bayesian network, support vector regression and an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system, are trained and validated using the results of the proposed methodology to develop real-time water and waste load allocation rules. To examine the efficiency and applicability of the methodology, it is applied to the Dez reservoir–river system in the south-western part of Iran.     

Supply-chain impacts of Sichuan earthquake: a case study using disaster input–output analysis

Natural Hazards - With the development of interregional trade, a potential disaster that happens in one place could cause enormous economic losses in distant areas. Timely and comprehensive...     

Pareto’s law and sample size: a case study of China’s urban system 1984–2008

While Pareto’s law has been widely supported by empirical evidence in urban studies, past studies have focused on finding best fits for city rank-size distribution. A main concern with Pareto’s law is the truncation of sample selection, for which few studies have examined it directly. This study tests three existing threshold methods (number threshold, size threshold, and urban population percentage threshold) using China’s city system as a case study. In addition, this study proposes a new method based upon the percentage threshold of the total number of cities. A systematic analysis is applied to examine the relationship between Pareto exponent and sample size using different threshold methods. The results show that Pareto exponent is sensitive to sample size and the truncation point. Including only large cities is problematic because a slight change in the truncation point will yield quite different results of Pareto exponent. In addition, the new method, the percentage threshold of the total number of cities method, presents an advantage over previous methods, in that this method yields a consistent set of results over a wide range of thresholds. Finally, when using this new method with China’s city system, the Pareto exponent presents a turning point in 1996, representing China’s transition from a planned economy to a more market oriented economy during that period.     

Temporal–spatial variability of soil fertility in karst region: a case study of Xiaojiang watershed Yunnan

By sampling in the field and analyzing the soil samples in the laboratory in 1982 and 2005 the soil fertility data were obtained. Through application of geo-statistics combined with GIS, the temporal–spatial variability of the pH, organic matter, total nitrogen, total phosphorus and total potassium in soil of Xiaojiang watershed from 1982 to 2005 were analyzed. Results showed that: (1) the pH value and total potassium in soil showed an increasing trend, but the organic matter, total nitrogen and the total phosphorus in soil declined in the past 20 years in Xiaojiang watershed, (2) the parameters fitted by semivariogram models for fertility indices changed significantly in the past 20 years and (3) the result estimated by ordinary Kriging indicated the spatial pattern of the soil fertility indices changed significantly in the past 20 years. The soil pH increased in the east and southeast, but decreased in the middle of the watershed. The organic content of the soil matter decreased in the east, southeast and southwest, but increased in the northeast and middle of the watershed. The total nitrogen content of the soil decreased in the east, but increased in the middle of watershed. The total phosphorus content of the soil decreased in the whole watershed. The total potassium content of the soil increased in the southwest and southeast, but decreased in the middle of the watershed and (4) the change of land use and soil management measures was the main driving force of variability of soil properties.     

Identifying urban–rural differences in social vulnerability to natural hazards: a case study of China

Identifying and analyzing the urban–rural differences of social vulnerability to natural hazards is imperative to ensure that urbanization develops in a way that lessens the impacts of disasters and generate building resilient livelihoods in China. Using data from the 2000 and 2010 population censuses, this study conducted an assessment of the social vulnerability index (SVI) by applying the projection pursuit cluster model. The temporal and spatial changes of social vulnerability in urban and rural areas were then examined during China’s rapid urbanization period. An index of urban–rural differences in social vulnerability (SVI_D) was derived, and the global and local Moran’s I of the SVI_D were calculated to assess the spatial variation and association between the urban and rural SVI. In order to fully determine the impacts of urbanization in relation to social vulnerability, a spatial autoregressive model and Bivariate Moran’s I between urbanization and SVI were both calculated. The urban and rural SVI both displayed a steadily decreasing trend from 2000 to 2010, although the urban SVI was always larger than the rural SVI in the same year. In 17.5% of the prefectures, the rural SVI was larger than the urban SVI in 2000, but was smaller than the urban SVI in 2010. About 12.6% of the urban areas in the prefectures became less vulnerable than rural areas over the study period, while in more than 51.73% of the prefectures the urban–rural SVI gap decreased over the same period. The SVI_D values in all prefectures had a significantly positive spatial autocorrelation and spatial clusters were apparent. Over time, social vulnerability to natural hazards at the prefecture-level displayed a gathering–scattering pattern across China. Though a regional variation of social vulnerability developed during China’s rapid urbanization, the overall trend was for a steady reduction in social vulnerability in both urban and rural areas.

     

Statistical analysis of geo-electric imaging and geotechnical test results – a case study

For conjunctive use of geoelectric imaging and geotechnical site investigations in geotechnical characterization of major civil engineering construction sites, an objective assessment of influencing factors is important. Here, we present multiple regression analyses of both geoelectric (Electrical Resistivity Tomography, ERT; Induced Polarization Imaging, IPI) and geotechnical site investigations (Standard Penetration Test, SPT) for two profiles at a construction site for CGEWHO Complex in Greater Noida region, Delhi to assess the role of influencing formation factors like sand, fines and water content. Achieved results show that SPT ‘N’ and IPI are well predicted by a linear multiple regression. On an average, the nonlinear regression has improved predicted SPT ‘N’, resistivity and chargeability by 28.55%, 22.45% and 9.58%, respectively. The influence of sand and fines content is more than that of water content in the prediction of chargeability and SPT ‘N’. RMS error is less in prediction of IPI chargeability (average error of 1.96%) in comparison to SPT ‘N’ value (average error of 11.35%). As factors affecting chargeability (IPI) and SPT ‘N’ are similar, non-invasive IPI can be used along with few geotechnical site investigations for detailed geotechnical site investigations.     

Integration of GIS and remote sensing for estimation of soil loss and prioritization of critical sub-catchments: a case study of Tapacurá catchment

Mapping of erosion risk areas is an important tool for the planning of natural resources management, allowing researchers to propose the modification of land use properly and implement more sustainable long-term management strategies. The objective of this study was to assess and identify critical sub-catchments for soil conservation management using the USLE, GIS, and remote sensing techniques. The Tapacurá catchment is one of the planning units for water resource management of the Recife Metropolitan Region. Maps of the erosivity (R), erodibility (K), slope (LS), cover-management (C), and support practice (P) factors were derived from the climate database, digital elevation model, and soil and land-use maps. In order to validate the simulation process, total sediment delivery ratio was estimated. The results showed a mean sediment delivery ratio (SDR) of around 11.5?% and a calculated mean sediment yield of 0.108?t?ha^?1?year^?1, which is close to the observed one, 0.169?t?ha^?1?year^?1. The obtained soil loss map could be considered as a useful tool for environmental monitoring and water resources management. The methodology applied showed acceptable precision and allowed the identification of the most susceptible areas to soil erosion by water, constituting an important predictive tool for soil and environmental management in this region, which is highly relevant for the prediction of varying development scenarios for Tapacurá catchment. This approach can be applied to other areas for simple and reliable identification of critical areas of soil erosion in catchments.     

Mesozoic and Cenozoic structural deformation in the NW Tarim Basin,China: a case study of the Piqiang–Selibuya Fault

The Piqiang–Selibuya Fault is the most significant fault in the NW Tarim Basin, China. It has attracted increasing attention because of the discovery of a series of oil (gas) fields in and around the fault zone. The structural characteristics and evolution of the Piqiang–Selibuya Fault remain controversial. Field geological surveys and seismic data interpretation reveal that the fault has experienced three stages of activity. The thicknesses of the Permian and Miocene strata on opposing sides of the fault are clearly different, and these reveal that the fault has experienced two stages of significant thrusting. The first stage took place at the end of the Triassic and was associated with the Qiangtang Block amalgamated to the south margin of Eurasia. The second stage occurred at the end of the Miocene and might have been caused by the northwards overthrusting of the Pamir. These two stages of thrusting led to the lower–middle Cambrian detachment layer in the eastern part of the Keping thrust belt being 2 km shallower than in the western part. Since the Pliocene, the southern Tien Shan orogenic belt has been reactivated and thrust towards the interior of the Tarim Basin, and a series of ENE–WSW-trending thrust sheets have formed in the Keping thrust belt. Because of the different depth of the detachment layer on the opposing sides of the Piqiang–Selibuya Fault, the number and spacing of thrust sheets formed to the east of the fault differ from those to the west. This dissimilar deformation led to the strike–slip displacement on the Piqiang–Selibuya Fault. The three stages of fault activity record three important tectonic events in the NW Tarim Basin. Qualitative analysis of this activity helps us better understand the influence of the far-field effect of the collisions that occurred on the southern margin of the Eurasia plate on the structural deformation of the NW Tarim Basin.     

Stability analysis and remedial measures of a landslip at Keifang,Mizoram – a case study

Landslips are often triggered due to non-engineered excavation of potential unstable slopes. Such slips can be stabilized by implementing suitable remedial measures.A landslip occurred at a drilling site of Oil India Limited in Mizoram State due to slope excavation. There was an immediate concern to protect the slope as the drilling platform and the highway at the top of the slope are at risk if further landslide occurs in future. Slope stability analysis of the failed slope was carried out to design suitable control measures for the protection of the slope from further sliding. Slope stability using various methods indicated that the slope is marginally stable. To improve the stability of the slope, suitable retaining structure at the toe of the slope was suggested and designed. Stability analysis performed with inclusion of retaining wall showed a significant increase in factor of safety of the slope. The suggested remedial measure has been implemented at the site and there is no landslip reported since then. The paper presents the results of the slope stability analysis and the design details of the retaining structure prescribed as the protection measure.     

Geostatistical analysis of spatiotemporal variability of groundwater level fluctuations in Amman–Zarqa basin,Jordan: a case study

The main objective of this study was to assess the spatial and temporal variability of groundwater level fluctuations in the Amman–Zarqa basin, during the period 2001–2005. In the year 2003, as a consequence of war, there was a sudden increase in the population in this basin. Knowing that the basin is already heavily populated and witnesses most of the human and industrial activities in Jordan, this study was prompted to help make wise water resources management decisions to cope with the new situation. Data from 31 fairly distributed wells in the upper aquifer of the basin were subjected to geostatistical treatment. Kriging interpolation techniques have indicated that the groundwater flow directions remained almost constant over the years. The two main directions are SW–NE and E–W. Kriging mapped fluctuations have also showed that drop and rise events are localized in the basin. Forecasting possibilities for management purposes were tackled using autocorrelation analysis. The constructed autocorrelograms indicated, in general, the temporal dependence of seasonal water level fluctuations, and that forecasting can be carried out within a period of 3–21 months. Several suggestions were made to mitigate the drop and rise hazards in the detected sites.     

Assessing the vulnerability of social–environmental system from the perspective of hazard,sensitivity, and resilience: a case study of Beijing,China

Despite a recent increase in the number of vulnerability analyses there has been relatively little discussion of vulnerability assessment of social–environment system, especially when they face multiple hazards. In this study, we developed an applicable and convenient method to assess vulnerability of social–environment system at a regional scale. Vulnerability is quantified by measuring three critical elements (i.e. hazards, sensitivity, and resilience) through some key variables. The results showed that vulnerability is high in Miaofeng Mountain in Mengtougou District, the hills of Pinggu County and the riparian zones of the lower courses of the Beiyun and Yongding Rivers; but low in the city of Beijing and the southwestern part of the Fangshan District. Areas of very high, high, medium, and low-vulnerability account for 6.19, 25.48, 33.06, and 35.27% of the total area, respectively. The degree of vulnerability decreases in a northwest direction in mountainous areas and declines from watercourses to riparian zones along a lateral direction in the plain. Some adaptive strategies are also proposed.     

Exploration and decision-making in geotechnical engineering – a case study

ABSTRACT

The paper presents methodologies for exploration planning under uncertain conditions based on virtual exploration and Bayesian updating. The process starts with site characterization using existing information to produce geologic profiles. Initial distributions of cost and time are obtained with a Bayesian network model that optimizes the construction strategy for particular geologic conditions. This is followed by the unique step to determine with a “virtual exploration” if additional exploration (e.g. borings) is warranted, and if so, where it should be best done. All this is then applied to the planned Abu Dhabi subway tunnels providing the transportation planners with necessary information for planning and design.     

Evaluation of ANFIS and LR models for seismic rockfalls’ susceptibility mapping: a case study of Firooz Abad-Kojour,Iran, Earthquake (2004)

Seismic rockfall is one of the prevalent geohazards that cause huge losses in the earthquake-stricken areas. In the present research, a model is developed to map susceptibility (occurrence probability) of seismic rockfalls in a regional scale using Logistic Regression (LR) and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) techniques. In this research, Firooz Abad-Kojour earthquake of 2004 was introduced as the benchmark and the model base. The susceptible zones predicted by LR and ANFIS methods were compared with the database (distribution map) of seismic rockfalls, by which the results revealed a good overlapping between the susceptible zones predicted by the ANFIS and the field observation of rockfalls triggered by this earthquake. Besides, for the statistical evaluation of results obtained by LR and ANFIS models, the verification parameters with high accuracy such as density ratio (Dr), quality sum (Qs), and receiver-operating characteristic curve (ROC) were used. By analyzing the susceptibility maps and considering the Qs index obtained by LR (21.04184) and ANFIS (26.75592), it could be found that the Qs of ANFIS is higher than that of LR. Moreover, based on the obtained value of the area under the curve (AUC) from LR (0.972) and ANFIS (0.984) methods, ANFIS provided a higher accuracy in zonation and susceptibility mapping of rockfalls triggered by Firooz Abad-Kojour earthquake of 2004 compared to the LR method.     

Implementation and evaluation of multivariate analysis for groundwater hydrochemistry assessment in arid environments: a case study of Hajeb Elyoun–Jelma, Central Tunisia

In most arid zones, groundwater (GW) is the major source of domestic, agriculture, drinking, and industrial water. Accordingly, the monitoring of its quality by different techniques and tools is a vital issue. The purpose of this paper is the evaluation of the combination of principal components analysis (PCA) and geostatistics as a technique for (1) identifying the processes affecting the groundwater chemistry of the detrital unconfined Middle Miocene Aquifer (MMA) of the Hajeb elyoun Jelma (HJ) aquifer (Tunisia) and (2) mapping the controlling variables for groundwater quality. This work is based on a limited database recorded in 22 wells tapping the aquifer and unequally distributed in the field. The proposed approach is carried out in two steps. In the first step, the application of PCA revealed that rock–water interaction, agriculture irrigation and domestic effluents could explain 85 % of the observed variability of the chemical GW quality of the MMA. As a result, two new variables are defined: V1 (rock–water interaction influence) and V2 (irrigation and domestic effluent influence). In the second step, the spatial variability of these variables over the extent of the MMA is mapped by applying a kriging interpolation technique. The results of this study suggest that, while both natural and anthropogenic processes contribute to the GW quality of the MMA, natural impacts can be considered as the most important.     

Multi-scenario flash flood hazard assessment based on rainfall–runoff modeling and flood inundation modeling: a case study

Flash flooding is one of the most devastating natural disasters in China. A quantitative flash flood hazard assessment is important for saving human lives and reducing economic losses. In this study, integrated rainfall–runoff modeling (HEC-HMS) and hydraulic modeling (FLO-2D) schemes were used to assess flash flood inundation areas and depths under 5-year, 10-year, 25-year, 50-year, 100-year, 200-year, 500-year and 1000-year rainfall scenarios in a mountainous basin (Hadahe River Basin, HRB) in northern China. The overall flash flood hazard in HRB is high. Under the eight rainfall scenarios, the total flooded area ranged from 6 to 8.73 km²; the flash flood inundation areas with depths of 1–2 m, 2–3 m, and over 3 m was 1.53–2.69 km², 0.63–1.44 km² and 0.33–1.11 km², respectively; and these areas accounted for 25.5–30.8%, 10.5–16.5% and 5.5–12.7% of the whole flooded area. The total flooded area increases rapidly with the return period increasing from 5 to 200 years, and the increase gradient slows when the return period is greater than 200 years. In the downstream area of HRB, the flash flood area with inundation depths greater than 1 m accounted for 54–71% of the flooded area under the eight scenarios. In comparison to other areas in the HRB, the downstream area is at the highest risk given its extensive inundation and substantial property exposure. The quantitative hazard assessment framework presented in this study can be applied in other mountainous basins for flash flood defense and disaster management purposes.

     

Aquifer vulnerability assessment using GIS and fuzzy system: a case study in Tehran–Karaj aquifer,Iran

Aquifer vulnerability assessment techniques have been developed to predict which areas are more likely than others to become contaminated as a result of activities at or near the land surface. This research focuses on the evaluation of groundwater vulnerability to pollution in an urban area. Among several assessment methods, DRASTIC has been selected for this study. ArcGIS has been used to overlay and calculate different layers and obtain the vulnerability map. In order to show the importance of fuzzy algorithms in classification, both Boolean and fuzzy algorithms were used and compared. The fuzzy algorithm could recognize the areas with low and negligible vulnerability potentials whereas the Boolean model classified them as moderate. Two sensitivity tests, the map removal sensitivity analyses and single-parameter sensitivity analysis, were performed to show the importance of each parameter in the index calculation.     

Identifying key environmental and building features affecting the outcome of a seismic event: a case study of the “921” earthquake

Natural Hazards - Major earthquakes in a given location are unpredictable, infrequent, and often fatal. Using data from a previous earthquake disaster, this study explores the relationship between...