Seasonal Variability of the Ion Composition,Phase State,and Mass Concentration of Aerosol in the Rural and Urban Atmosphere over Belgium (2001–2003)

Field data on the ion composition and mass concentration of aerosol in the rural (Wingene) and urban (Antwerp) regions of Belgium and the results of their thermodynamic analysis are presented. Ammonium nitrate and ammonium sulfate are found to be the major water-soluble components of aerosol particles. The seasonal variability of mass concentration, phase state, and ion composition of aerosol particles is largely determined by variations in temperature and relative humidity. It is shown that the content of ammonium nitrate and ammonium sulfate in PM2.5 is close to their thermodynamic equilibrium concentrations.     

A study of marine aerosols over the Pacific Ocean

Aerosol samples were collected on a Pacific cruise from 47°N to 55°S. Particle morphology, concentrations, and size distributions were analyzed with an electron microscope; elemental compositions of individual particles were determined with an X-ray energy spectrometer; and chemical compositions of bulk samples were measured with an ion chromatograph. Temporal and spatial variations of aerosol physico-chemical characteristics were studied in relation to ocean currents and atmospheric parameters. The results show that number and mass concentrations of primary particles depend mainly on surface wind speeds. However the ratios between the major ions, e.g., Na⁺, Cl^-, and Mg⁺⁺, are similar to the ratios in seawater regardless of location or meteorological conditions. The concentrations of secondary aerosols, e.g., non-seasalt sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium particles, show maxima at upwelling regions, such as along the California coast, at the Equator, and near the Chatham Rise where ascending motion brings nutrient-riched deep water into the surface layer. The number concentrations of small sulfate particles and large nitrate-coated particles showed diurnal variations with maxima in the early afternoon and minima at night, indicating that the particles are the products of photo-chemical reactions. Their precursor gases, e.g., CH₃SCH₃, NO, and NH₃ are known to be released from seawater in upwelling regions where biological activities thrive.     

Trace elements in aerosol particles from Bermuda and Barbados: Concentrations,sources and relationships to aerosol sulfate

The concentrations of selected trace elements and non-sea salt sulfate were determined for aerosol particle samples collected over the open North Atlantic Ocean as part of the Atmosphere/Ocean Chemistry Experiment (AEROCE). The concentrations of atmospheric sea salt and mineral aerosol, which together dominate the mass of particulate material in the atmosphere, were higher at Barbados than at Bermuda. In contrast, the impact of pollution sources on trace element concentrations was more evident at Bermuda than at Barbados. At both sites Sb and Se were enriched significantly over the concentrations expected from mineral dust or from atmospheric sea salt. Moreover, the concentrations of Sb and Se were correlated, and the observed Sb/Se ratios often were similar to those resulting from anthropogenic emissions. At Bermuda, the concentrations of Sb and Se co-varied with non-sea salt sulfate, suggesting that a significant fraction of the non-sea salt sulfate is anthropogenic. In a broader context, the synthesis of results demonstrates that trace element data are useful for evaluating the relative contributions of anthropogenic vs. natural sources to the budgets of non-sea salt sulfate in acrosol particles.     

热带太平洋-印度洋海温联合模及其气候影响

本文基于观测资料和LICOM2.0模拟结果的分析研究,简要介绍讨论了太平洋—印度洋海温(异常)联合模(PIOAM)的存在、特征、演变及其影响等问题。热带太平洋—印度洋区域乃至全球范围的海表温度异常(SSTA)资料进行EOF分解,都清楚表明其第一分量在热带太平洋—印度洋的空间形态与太平洋—印度洋海温(异常)联合模(PIOAM)非常相似,说明PIOAM是热带太平洋—印度洋实实在在存在的一种海温异常模态。对应PIOAM的正、负位相,热带印度洋和西太平洋地区的夏季(JJA)850 hPa距平风场有近乎相反的异常流场形势;对流层低层的Walker环流支和亚洲夏季风都出现了不同特征的(近乎相反)异常;在PIOAM正(负)位相将使得100 hPa的南亚高压位置偏东(西)。对热带太平洋和印度洋温跃层曲面上的海温异常(为了方便将其称为SOTA)进行EOF分解,发现其第一模态也是一个三极子模态,即当赤道中西印度洋大部分海域与赤道中东太平洋大部分海域偏暖(偏冷)时,赤道东印度洋和赤道西太平洋大部分海域则偏冷(偏暖);它与太平洋—印度洋表层的PIOAM十分类似,也表明PIOAM在海洋次表层也是存在的。高分辨海洋环流模式LICOM2.0的模拟结果,无论是对太平洋—印度洋表层还是次表层的PIOAM的特征和演变都刻画得很好,这从另一个角度进一步说明PIOAM是热带太平洋—印度洋实际存在的一种海温变化模态。PIOAM正、负位相不仅对亚洲及西太平洋地区的天气气候有非常不一样的影响(不少地方有反向的特征),还会对南北美洲和非洲一些地区产生不同影响;而且其影响与单独的厄尔尼诺(El Ni?o)及印度洋偶极子(IOD)都不尽相同。     

Methanesulfonic acid and non-sea-salt sulfate in pacific air: Regional and seasonal variations

Concentrations of aerosol methanesulfonic acid (MSA) and non-sea-salt (nss) sulfate were measured at six island stations in the Pacific Ocean to investigate regional and seasonal patterns of organosulfur emissions and the origin of nss sulfate over the Pacific. The mean MSA concentrations, in g/m³, at the stations were: Shemya, 0.097±0.098; Midway, 0.029±0.021; Fanning, 0.044±0.012; American Samoa, 0.026±0.012; New Caledonia, 0.021±0.009; Norfolk, 0.024±0.019. The extremely high MSA levels found at Shemya indicate a major source of organosulfur emissions in the western North Pacific. Significant seasonal trends in MSA were observed, with higher MSA occurring during warm months. The amplitude of the seasonal variation was greatest at higher latitude stations. At Fanning and American Samoa, which have minimal input of continental material, there is a significant positive correlation between MSA and nss sulfate. MSA/nss sulfate ratios at other Pacific stations exhibit greater variability, which may be related to variations in: the input of continentally derived sulfate, the composition of oceanic organosulfur emissions, and atmospheric reaction pathways.     

Mid latitude winter climate variability in the South Indian and southwest Pacific regions since 1300 AD

Mid-latitude winter atmospheric variability in the South Indian Ocean and southwest Pacific Ocean regions of the circum-Antarctic are reconstructed using sea-salt aerosol concentrations measured in the high resolution Law Dome (DSS) ice core from East Antarctica. The sea-salt aerosol concentration data, as sodium (Na), were measured at approximately monthly resolution spanning the past 700 years. Analyses of covariations between Na concentrations in Law Dome ice, and mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) and wind field data were conducted to define the mid-latitude and sub-Antarctic atmospheric circulation patterns associated with variations in Na delivery. High Na concentrations in Law Dome snow are associated with increased meridional aerosol transport from mid-latitude sources. The seasonal average Na concentration for early winter (May, June, July (MJJ)) is strongly correlated to the mid-latitude MSLP field in the South Indian and southwest Pacific Oceans, and southern Australian regions. In addition, the average MJJ Na concentrations display a strong association with the stationary Rossby wave number 3 circulation, and are anti-correlated to the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index of climate variability: high (low) Na concentrations occurring during negative (positive) SAM phases. This observed relationship is used to derive a proxy record for early-winter MSLP anomalies and the SAM in the South Indian and southwest Pacific Ocean regions over the period 1300–1995 AD. The proxy SAM index from 1300 to 1995 AD shows pronounced decadal-scale variability throughout. The period after 1500 AD is marked by a tendency toward slower variations and a weakly-positive mean SAM (enhanced westerlies in the 50° to 65°S zone) compared to the early part of the record.     

我国南方地区初秋气温的年际变化特征及影响因子分析

利用1979–2021年NCEP2.5°×2.5°、MOHC1°×1°海洋等资料,通过经验正交函数（EOF）分解、合成分析和相关分析等方法,分析了我国南方地区初秋气温的年际变化特征及其相关的大气和海洋异常。结果表明：（1）我国南方地区初秋气温主要表现为一致变化型和经向偶极变化型两种模态。（2）一致变化空间型主要受到高纬度西伯利亚高压和东亚大槽以及中低纬度地区的副热带高压和近地面风的共同影响,而经向偶极变化型则主要受到我国东北地区与我国长江下游流域对流层位势高度反位相变化的影响。（3）一致变化空间型与前期冬季我国邻近海域以及赤道印度洋和东太平洋地区海温异常、鄂霍茨克海和拉布拉多海海冰异常有关,经向偶极变化型则与前期冬季赤道中东太平洋的海温异常、鄂霍茨克海和巴伦支海海冰异常有关。     

The demise of Arctic sea ice during stabilisation at high greenhouse gas concentrations

A climate model experiment was conducted using the HadCM3 climate model and a scenario in which the atmospheric CO₂ concentration was increased over 70 years from pre-industrial concentrations to 4 times this level and then stabilised for more than a 1,000 years. During the period of stabilisation the global atmospheric surface temperatures continued to rise as the deep oceans adjusted towards a new equilibrium. However, even after 1,000 years this new equilibrium had not been reached. During the first 600 years, Arctic and Antarctic winter sea ice thickness and area covered declined with a significant impact on the global radiation budget. After this period the area of the Arctic covered by sea ice entered a 150 years period during which time it underwent a series of oscillations. Following the oscillation the centre of the Arctic basin became ice free throughout the year. A sensitivity experiment demonstrates that although the sea ice extent can be greatly reduced through the artificial heating of the mixed layer, prior to the onset of the oscillatory phase the ice recovers over 15 years. Understanding the causes of this oscillatory phase may elucidate the mechanisms of variability in the Arctic in the present climate and in future policy relevant scenarios. We have investigated the atmospheric and oceanic forcing on the ice during the oscillatory phase, and find that the behaviour is linked to a redistribution of Arctic Ocean heat stores.     

Modelling of the nighttime nitrogen and sulfur chemistry in size resolved droplets of an orographic cloud

A chemistry module has been incorporated into a Lagrangian type model that computes the dynamics and microphysics of an orographical cloud formed in moist air flowing over the summit of Great Dun Fell (GDF) in England. The cloud droplets grow on a maritime aerosol which is assumed to be an external mixture of sea-salt particles and ammonium-sulfate particles. The dry particle radii are in the range 10 nm<r<1 µm. The gas-phase chemical reaction scheme considers reactions of nitrogen compounds that are important at night. The treatment of scavenging of gases into the aqueous phase in the model takes into account the different solubilities and accommodation coefficients. The chemistry in the aqueous phase focusses on the oxidation of S(IV) via different pathways.Sensitivity analyses have been performed to investigate deviations from gas-liquid equilibria according to Henry's law and also to study the influence of iron and of nitrogen compounds on the aqueous-phase oxidation of dissolved SO₂. When addressing these questions, special attention has been given to the dependence on the droplet size distribution and on the chemical composition of the cloud condensation nuclei on which the droplets have formed. It was found that the oxidation of S(IV) via a chain reaction of sulfur radicals can be important under conditions where H₂O₂ is low. However, major uncertainties remain with respect to the interaction of iron with the radical chain. It was shown that mixing of individual cloud droplets, which are not in equilibrium according to Henry's law, can result in a bulk sample in equilibrium with the ambient air. The dependence of the aqueous-phase concentrations on the size of the cloud droplets is discussed for iron, chloride and NO₃.     

The characterization and distribution of aerosol and gaseous species in the winter monsoon over the western pacific ocean

During the winters of 1981 and 1982, measurements were taken on two Japanese islands of the aerosol and gaseous species which had been carried by northwesterly monsoons over the Pacific Ocean. The aerosols were characterized as sea-salt particles; soil particles, and as particles of sulfate, nitrate, organics and elemental carbon. At Chichi-jima island, which is about 800 km away from the main islands of Japan, it was found that the level of the anthropogenic components of the aerosols was considerably higher than their background level. The mean concentrations of the species on the islands are given in tabular forms. According to a survey made on board a ferry boat, the aerosol and gaseous species were fairly uniformly distributed along the southern coast of the main Japanese islands.     

The Initial Errors in the Tropical Indian Ocean that Can Induce a Significant “Spring Predictability Barrier” for La Ni?a Events and Their Implication for Targeted Observations

Initial errors in the tropical Indian Ocean (IO-related initial errors) that are most likely to yield the Spring Prediction Barrier (SPB) for La Ni?a forecasts are explored by using the CESM model. These initial errors can be classified into two types. Type-1 initial error consists of positive sea temperature errors in the western Indian Ocean and negative sea temperature errors in the eastern Indian Ocean, while the spatial structure of Type-2 initial error is nearly opposite. Both kinds of IO-related initial errors induce positive prediction errors of sea temperature in the Pacific Ocean, leading to under-prediction of La Ni?a events. Type-1 initial error in the tropical Indian Ocean mainly influences the SSTA in the tropical Pacific Ocean via atmospheric bridge, leading to the development of localized sea temperature errors in the eastern Pacific Ocean. However, for Type-2 initial error, its positive sea temperature errors in the eastern Indian Ocean can induce downwelling error and influence La Ni?a predictions through an oceanic channel called Indonesian Throughflow. Based on the location of largest SPB-related initial errors, the sensitive area in the tropical Indian Ocean for La Ni?a predictions is identified. Furthermore, sensitivity experiments show that applying targeted observations in this sensitive area is very useful in decreasing prediction errors of La Ni?a. Therefore, adopting a targeted observation strategy in the tropical Indian Ocean is a promising approach toward increasing ENSO prediction skill.     

Optical growth of highly viscous organic/sulfate particles

Light extinction by atmospheric particles is strongly dependent on their chemical composition and water content. Since light extinction directly impacts climate, optical measurements of atmospherically relevant aerosols at varying relative humidities (RH) are needed. Recent studies have highlighted the possibility that some atmospheric aerosols are glassy under ambient conditions. Here, the particle optical growth factor, fRH_ext, was measured for liquid and glassy particles using cavity ring-down aerosol extinction spectroscopy. The particles were composed of ammonium sulfate (AS), 1,2,6-hexanetriol, sucrose, raffinose, and mixed particles containing AS and either sucrose or raffinose. Both sucrose and raffinose can be glassy at room temperature. For the pure organics, the highly viscous sucrose and raffinose particles have similar optical growth curves to the liquid 1,2,6 hexanetriol particles. However, for particles composed of sucrose or raffinose mixed with AS, optical growth depends on the AS weight-percent, which in turn controls the phase state of the AS and ultimately the water uptake.     

Roles of Indian and Pacific Ocean air–sea coupling in tropical atmospheric variability

Sea surface temperature (SST) variations include negative feedbacks from the atmosphere, whereas SST anomalies are specified in stand-alone atmospheric general circulation simulations. Is the SST forced response the same as the coupled response? In this study, the importance of air–sea coupling in the Indian and Pacific Oceans for tropical atmospheric variability is investigated through numerical experiments with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. The local and remote impacts of the Indian and Pacific Ocean coupling are obtained by comparing a coupled simulation with an experiment in which the SST forcing from the coupled simulation is specified in either the Indian or the Pacific Ocean. It is found that the Indian Ocean coupling is critical for atmospheric variability over the Pacific Ocean. Without the Indian Ocean coupling, the rainfall and SST variations are completely different throughout most of the Pacific Ocean basin. Without the Pacific Ocean coupling, part of the rainfall and SST variations in the Indian Ocean are reproduced in the forced run. In regions of large mean rainfall where the atmospheric negative feedback is strong, such as the North Indian Ocean and the western North Pacific in boreal summer, the atmospheric variability is significantly enhanced when air–sea coupling is replaced by specified SST forcing. This enhancement is due to the lack of the negative feedback in the forced SST simulation. In these regions, erroneous atmospheric anomalies could be induced by specified SST anomalies derived from the coupled model. The ENSO variability is reduced by about 20% when the Indian Ocean air–sea coupling is replaced by specified SST forcing. This change is attributed to the interfering roles of the Indian Ocean SST and Indian monsoon in western and central equatorial Pacific surface wind variations.     

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF SSTA IMPACTS OVER THE GLOBAL OCEAN ON THE ANOMALOUS CIRCULATION OVER EURASIA IN JANUARY 2008

In this paper,we discussed the features of atmospheric circulations over Eurasia as a response to sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the tropical Indian Ocean,the equatorial Pacific,Kuroshio and the North Atlantic.Our results are shown as follows: (1) CAM3.0,driven by the combined SSTAs over the four oceanic regions,can simulate well the features of anomalous atmospheric circulations over Eurasia in January 2008,indicating that the effects of the SSTAs over these four regions were one of the key causes of the anomalous systems over Eurasia.(2) The SSTAs over each key region contributed to the intensification of blocking over the Urals Mountains and a main East Asian trough.However,the influence of the SSTAs over individual oceanic regions differed from one another in other aspects.The SSTAs over the North Atlantic had an impact on the 500-hPa anomalous height (Z500A) over the middle-high latitudes and had a somewhat smaller effect over the low latitudes.For the warm SSTAs over Kuroshio,the subtropical high was much stronger,spread farther north than usual,and had an anomalous easterly that dominated the northwest Pacific Ocean.The warm SSTAs over the tropical Indian Ocean could have caused a negative Z500A from West Asia to Middle Asia,a remarkably anomalous southwesterly from the Indian Ocean to the south of China and an anomalous anticyclone circulation over the South China Sea-Philippine Sea region.Because of the La Nia event,the winter monsoon was stronger than normal,with an anomalously cooler northerly over the southeastern coastal areas of China.(3) The combined effects of the SSTAs over the four key regions were likely more important to the atmospheric circulation anomalies of January 2008 over Eurasia than the effects of individual or partly combined SSTAs.This unique SSTA distribution possibly led to the circulation anomalies over Eurasia in January 2008,especially the atmospheric circulation anomalies over the subtropics,which were more similar to those of the winter El Ni?o events than to the circulation anomalies following La Nia.     

A study of biases in simulation of the Indian Ocean basin mode and its capacitor effect in CMIP3/CMIP5 models

Based on 15 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 3 (CMIP3) and 32 CMIP phase 5 (CMIP5) models, a detailed diagnosis was carried out to understand what compose the biases in simulation of the Indian Ocean basin mode (IOBM) and its capacitor effect. Cloud-radiation-SST (CRS) feedback and wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback are the two major atmospheric processes for SST changes. Most CMIP models simulate a stronger CRS feedback and a weaker WES feedback. During boreal fall of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation developing year and the following spring, there are weak biases of suppressed rainfall anomalies over the Maritime Continent and anomalous anticyclone over South Indian Ocean. Most CMIP models simulate reasonable short wave radiation (SWR) and weaker latent heat flux (LHF) anomalies. This leads to a weak bias of atmospheric processes. During winter, however, the rainfall anomalies are stronger due to west bias, and the anomalous anticyclone is comparable to observations. As such, most models simulate stronger SWR and reasonable LHF anomalies, leading to a strong bias of atmospheric processes. The thermocline feedback is stronger in most models. Though there is a deep bias of climatology thermocline, most models capture reasonable sea surface height-induced SST anomalies. Therefore, the effect of oceanic processes offset the weak bias of atmospheric processes in spring, and the tropical Indian Ocean warming persists into summer. However, anomalous northwest Pacific (NWP) anticyclone is weaker due to weak and west bias of the capacitor effect. The unrealistic western Pacific SST anomalies in models favor the westward extension of Rossby wave from the Pacific, weakening the effect of Kelvin wave from the Indian Ocean. Moreover, the western Pacific warming forces the NWP anticyclone move farther north than observations, suggesting a major forcing from the Pacific. Compared to CMIP3, CMIP5 models simulate the feedbacks more realistically and display less diversity. Thus, the overall performance of CMIP5 models is better than that of CMIP3 models.     

Aerosol bacteria over the Southern Ocean during ACE-1

Individual bacterial cells occur in many samples that were collected at Cape Grim, Tasmania and during the Lagrangian “B” experiment of the Aerosol Characterization Experiment 1 (ACE-1) campaign that was conducted above the Southern Ocean. They are present in samples from altitudes as high as 5.4 km. Morphologically, almost all bacteria are rod-shaped, about 1 μm long or smaller, have one polar flagellum, and contain inclusions that are rich in P and K. Their morphological features suggest that these bacteria are motile, marine species. It seems likely that the cells became airborne by the same bubble-bursting mechanism that ejects sea-salt aerosol particles into the atmosphere; however, the bacteria and sea-salt particles are typically not aggregated with one another. The estimated number ratio of bacteria and the dominant aerosol species, sea salt, varies in the samples and averages about 1%. The aerosol bacteria seem to represent an important atmospheric reservoir of P and organic compounds; on the other hand, since they are externally mixed with sea salt, they are unlikely to be effective as cloud condensation nuclei.     

A pseudo-Lagrangian study of the sulfur budget in the remote Arctic marine boundary layer

The atmospheric sulfur cycle of the remote Arctic marine boundary layer is studied using trajectories and measurements of sulfur compounds from the International Arctic Ocean Expedition 1991, along with a pseudo-Lagrangian approach and an analytical model. The dimethyl sulfide [DMS(g)] turnover time was  h. Only  % of DMS(g) followed reaction paths to sulfur dioxide [SO₂(g)], sub-micrometre aerosol non-seasalt sulfate (nss-SO₄²⁻) or methane sulfonate (MSA). During the first 3 d of transport over the pack ice, fog deposition and drizzle resulted in short turnover times;  h for SO₂(g),  h for MSA and  h for nss-SO₄²⁻. Therefore, DMS(g) will, owing to its origin along or south of the ice edge and longer turnover time, survive the original sub-micrometre sulfur aerosol mass and gradually replace it with new biogenic sulfur aerosol mass. The advection of DMS(g) along with heat and moisture will influence the clouds and fogs over the Arctic pack ice through the formation of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). If the pack ice cover were to decrease owing to a climate change, the total Arctic Ocean DMS production would change, and potentially there could be an ice–DMS–cloud–albedo climate feedback effect, but it would be accompanied by changes in the fog aerosol sink.     

A Coupled Hydrophobic-Hydrophilic Model for Predicting Secondary Organic Aerosol Formation

The formation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) results from the absorption of gas-phase organic oxidation products by airborne aerosol. Historically, modeling the formation of SOA has relied on relatively crude estimates of the capability of given parent hydrocarbons to form SOA. In more recent work, surrogate organic oxidation products have been separated into two groups, hydrophobic and hydrophilic, depending on whether the product is more likely to dissolve into an organic or an aqueous phase, respectively. The surrogates are then allowed to partition only via the dominant mechanism, governed by molecular properties of the surrogate molecules. The distinction between hydrophobic and hydrophilic is based on structural and physical characteristics of the compound. In general, secondary oxidation products, because of low vapor pressures and high polarities, express affinity for both the organic and aqueous aerosol phases. A fully coupled hydrophobic-hydrophilic organic gas-particle partitioning model is presented here. The model concurrently achieves mass conservation, equilibrium between the gas phase and the organic aerosol phase, equilibrium between the gas phase and the aqueous aerosol phase, and equilibrium between molecular and ionic forms of the partitioning species in the aqueous phase. Simulations have been performed using both a zero-dimensional model and the California Institute of Technology three-dimensional atmospheric chemical transport model. Simultaneous partitioning of species by both mechanisms typically leads to a shift in the distribution of products to the organic aerosol phase and an increase in the total amount of SOA predicted as compared to previous work in which partitioning is assumed to occur independently to organic and aqueous phases.     

季节内印度洋-西太平洋对流涛动对次季节-季节尺度大气可预报性的影响

利用非线性局部Lyapunov指数和条件非线性局部Lyapunov指数定量估计了季节内印度洋-西太平洋对流涛动（IPCO）和实时多变量Madden-Julian指数（RMM指数）可预报期限,量化了季节内IPCO对S2S尺度大气可预报性的贡献,深入研究了季节内IPCO演变下S2S尺度可预报期限空间分布的变化规律。结果表明：（1）与RMM指数相比,季节内IPCO指数可预报性更强,可预报期限达到31天左右,比RMM指数高出2周以上;（2）印度洋-西太平洋区域S2S尺度大气可预报性最强,可预报期限达到30天以上,其中季节内IPCO是该地区的主要可预报性来源之一,其贡献达到6天,占总可预报期限的25%以上;（3）随着季节内IPCO的演变,印度洋-西太平洋地区S2S尺度大气可预报性有空间结构变化,表现为可预报期限异常的传播和振荡。S2S尺度大气可预报期限正负异常沿季节内IPCO传播路径,一支以赤道中西印度洋为起点北传至印度半岛,一支向东传播,经过海洋性大陆到赤道西太平洋后向北传播,到达日本南部。同时,可预报性异常的传播在在东印度洋和西太平洋表现出反向变化的特征,形成东西两极振荡,当季节内IPCO向正位相发展时,东印度洋具有更强的可预报性,西太平洋具有更弱的可预报性,反之亦然。季节内IPCO的发展（衰退）可使东印度洋（西太平洋）S2S尺度大气可预报性更强,表明模式预报技巧对此具有更大的提升空间。     

一个灵活的海洋——大气耦合环流模式

Based on the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Climate System Model version 1(CSM-1), a Flexible coupled General Circulation Model version 0 (FGCM-0) is developed in this study through replacing CSM-1＇s oceanic component model with IAP L30T63 global oceanic general circulation model and some necessary modifications of the other component models. After the coupled model FGCM--0 is spun up for dozens of years, it has been run for 60 years without flux correction. The model does not only show the reasonable long-term mean climatology, but also reproduce a lot of features of the interannual variability of climate, e.g. the ENSO-like events in the tropical Pacific Ocean and the dipole mode pattern in the tropical Indian Ocean. Comparing FGCM-0 with the NCAR CSM-1, some common features are found, e.g. the overestimation of sea ice in the North Pacific and the simulated double ITCZ etc.The further analyses suggest that they may be attributed to errors in the atmospheric model.