Lateral variation in Moho depth around the southern Tanlu fault zone and its adjacent area

We estimated Moho depth beneath the southern Tanlu fault zone and its adjacent area using common-conversion-point(CCP)stacking of receiver fun-ctions,which were computed from teleseismic records of the CEArray.Our estimated Moho depth matches well with 2-D profiles derived from active-source deep seismic reflection surveys,suggesting that the calculated the Moho depth map is likely accurate beyond the 2-D profiles.Overall,the estimated Moho depth map showed a high spatial correlation with tectonic provinces,i.e.,Moho topographic boundaries are in good agreement with geological boundaries.Beneath the Dabie orogenic belt and the mountainous areas in southern Anhui Province,the Moho lies relatively deep,and there is an obvious difference in Moho depth between the two sides of this segment of the Tanlu fault.We further selected four depth profiles with dense instrumentation to show Moho depth changes across different tectonic blocks in the study area.We saw two step-like changes in Moho depth beneath the Xiangfan-Guangji and Gushi-Feizhong,which run parallel along the WNW-ESE direction and delineate the southern and northern bounds of the northern Dabie orogenic belt,which is likely the suture zone between the North China Block and South China Block.Crust beneath the northeast corner of the study area is significantly thinner than other areas,which is consistent with the crustal detachment model proposed for suturing between the North and South China blocks in the region east to the Tanlu fault.     

The amalgamation of the supercontinent of North China Craton at the end of Neo-Archaean and its breakup during late Palaeoproterozoic and Meso-Proterozoic

The most important geological events in the formation and evolution of the North China Craton concentrate at two stages: 2 600–2 400 Ma and 2 000–1 700 ma (briefly, we call them 2.5 Ga event and 1.8 Ga event respectively in this paper). We propose that the essences of these two events are: Several Archaean micro-continents amalgamated to form one supercontinent according to the plate tectonic principle with a small scale at about 2.5 Ga, and the supercontinent broke down by upwelling of an ancient mantle plume at about 1.8 Ga.     

利用多层横波各向异性测量方法计算两层介质的分裂参数

对实际两层各向异性介质,在一层假设条件下利用Silver和Chan（1991）的等效单层各向异性测量方法,以及在两层假设条件下利用剥去法和反演法,计算模型的分裂参数.首先利用理论雷克子波得到经过两层各向异性的观测数据,然后加入噪声之前和之后,分别计算不同反方位角覆盖条件下数据的各向异性,并与理论模型的分裂参数进行比较.结果发现在上层分裂特征已知的基础上,剥去法适用于任何模型,不管是否存在分裂,或者分裂特征在两层中如何分布;而反演法更适用于两层各向异性较强且不同的模型,其结果受噪声和方位角分布的影响.选取不同方位角分布的高信噪比数据,比较剥去法和反演法对下层分裂参数的计算结果,发现当入射方位角在两层快波方向之间时,反演结果比较可靠.最后利用这三种测量各向异性的方法,计算青藏高原东南缘CEArray台站观测到的SKS数据中记录的各向异性.除了云贵高原的台站YN.CUX表现出较明显的两层分裂特征,大部分台站下的岩石圈各向异性呈现一层或者较弱的各向异性.于是针对该台站,用反演法同时对这两层的分裂参数进行估计,上层的结果与接收函数计算的地壳分裂参数一致;下层的结果与剥去法计算的上地幔分裂参数一致,说明反演法同剥去法一样,都能有效的分析具有两层各向异性特征的介质.

     

福建及台湾海峡地区新一维速度模型的适用性分析

通过福建及台湾海峡地区的新一维速度模型与现有华南速度模型的对比,讨论了新一维速度模型在福建地震观测台网的适用性。理论走时分析结果表明,尽管两个速度模型差异明显,但震中距在0—100 km范围内的震相理论走时相差较小,一定程度上说明两速度模型所给出的本区域地壳平均速度差异较小。对利用18次人工定点爆破记录的地震定位结果的分析表明:当震源深度不受约束时,应用华南速度模型的定位结果精度稍优于新一维速度模型;将震源深度固定为0 km后,应用新一维速度模型的定位结果精度则明显优于华南模型。对19个仙游震群序列事件进行定位的结果显示,由于华南地区速度结构的横向变化较小,应用两模型的地震定位精度结果基本相当,但新一维速度模型定位的发震时刻较华南速度模型普遍早0.61 s左右,因此使得事件定位残差显著增大。     

Decadal climatic variations recorded in Guliya ice core and comparison with the historical documentary data from East China during the last 2000 years

The high-resolution records of δ¹⁸O and snow accumulation variations from the Guliya ice core provide valuable data for research on climatic variations at a decadal resolution during the past 2000 years in China. Based on the ice core data, five spells have been divided: the warm and wet period before 270 AD, the cold and dry period between 280 and 970 AD, the moderate and dry period between 970 and 1510 AD, the well-defined” Little Ice Age “with drastic cold-warm fluctuations between 1510 and 1930 AD and the warming period since 1930 AD. According to the combination of temperature and precipitation, cold events (55 times) surpass warm ones (26 times), and dry events (55 times) slupass wet ones (45 times). Cold-wet events (14 times) are less than cold-dry ones (16 times), while warm-wet events (10 times) are more than warm-dry ones (4 times). If the difference of2%c in δ¹⁸O (corresponding to 3K in temperature) between two or three adjacent decades is taken as the criterion of it, the abrupt change has taken place 33 times or so since the 3rd century. Among them are four large ones, occurring in 250–280, 550–580, 1220–1260, and 1520–1560 AD respectively. Comparison of the ice core data with the latest comprehensive research results on historical documents of East China shows that the great climatic events appeared simultaneously or at the same age in the ice core record and in the documentary data, suggesting that consistences and similarities in climatic variation among different areas are far away from each other in the lower to mid-latitudes. However, there is a great difference between them during the Medieval Warm Period, which is conspicuous in the historical documents but not in the ice core. In addition, the first cold event of the Little Ice Age on East China was 60 years earlier than that of the Guliya Ice Cap, when the degree of cwling in West China is more intensive than that of East China. But the third cold event in East China lagged behind that in West China during the late 19th century. The 1820s cold event in both West and East China may be caused by the magnificent Tambora volcanic eruption in 1815     

地震学定量预报指标的一种提取方法——对比筛选法

鉴于目前地震学综合定量预报指标的缺乏和预报工作的急需,尝试使用“对比筛选法(简称CSM方法)”进行地震学定量预报指标的提取试验。较之以往作法的进展在于:1.同时使用“有震”和“无震”两类样本对比筛选;2.对不同地区的地震学参数进行了归一化处理。这样做的显著优点是:1.可以较有效地提取“有震异常”和“正常变化”指标;2.提取的异常和预报指标具有定量化和普适性特点。 试验研究使用大华北地震区资料,研究对象取中强地震。经内符和外推检验,证明该方法提取的异常和预报指标有效性和实用性较高。     

影响中国北方强降雪事件年际变化的典型环流背景和水汽收支特征分析

基于1961-2014年中国台站观测资料和NECP/NCAR再分析资料,对影响中国北方强降雪事件（日降雪量5 mm及以上,包括大到暴雪）年际变化的典型大尺度环流特征和水汽条件进行了综合分析.结果表明：中国北方强降雪事件主要集中在新疆北部和东北两个地区,而且强降雪日数和降雪量具有高度一致的年际变化特征.中国北方强降雪事件偏多时,对应北大西洋涛动（NAO）和北极涛动（AO）负位相;贝加尔湖上空维持异常低槽区,有利于冷空气的爆发南下;热带印度洋至热带西太平洋上空维持一条异常反气旋带,有利于暖湿气流向北输送;中国北方及以北区域高空为异常西风气流,提供有利的动力抬升条件,使得强降雪易于在中国北方发生;反之亦然.水汽收支分析显示,中国北方西边界和南边界水汽入流增强在强降雪偏多中起着主要贡献.异常西风水汽输送利于新疆北部大到暴雪偏多,异常西南风水汽输送则利于东北地区大到暴雪的发生.进一步研究揭示：与小雪相比,影响中国北方大到暴雪年际偏多的中高纬环流特征相类似,但环流经向度更大;而且大到暴雪与NAO和AO的关系更密切,并更多的受到来自中低纬地区的水汽输送影响.

     

Stress interactions between normal faults and adjacent strike-slip faults of 1997 Jiashi earthquake swarm

During a 4-month period starting from 21 January, 1997, an earthquake swarm of seven major events (Ms≥6.0) struck the Jiashi region at the northwestern corner of the Tarim Basin in Xinjiang,, China. Previous relocation studies suggested that these strong earthquakes had occurred along at least two parallel rupture zones. According to the relocated hypocenters and focal mechanisms of the events, we have constructed fault models for these seven earthquakes to calculate the Coulomb stress changes produced by each of these events. Furthermore, we extended our model calculations to include an ad- jacent 1996 Ms=6.9 Artushi earthquake, which occurred one year before the Jiashi earthquake swarm. Our calculations show that the Coulomb stress change caused by the preceding events was around 0.05 MPa at the hypocenter of the 4th event, and higher than 0.08 MPa at the hypocenters of the 2nd, 3rd, 5th and 6th events. Our results reveal a Coulomb stress interactive cycle of earthquake triggering between two adjacent normal and strike-slip faults.     

Inversion of long-period body-wave data for the source process of the Gonghe, Qinghai, China earthquake

Long period body waves data recorded by the China Digital Seismograph Network (CDSN) are inverted for the seismic moment tensors of the April 26, 1990, Gonghe, QinghaiM _S=6.9 earthquake and itsM _S=5.0 after-shock occurred on May 7, 1990. In the inversion, the generalized reflection-transmission coefficient matrix method is used to generate Green’s function. From the inversion it is obtained that the rupture process of theM _S=5.0 aftershock is relatively simple, and that of the main shock is rather complex. There are at least two events during main shock rupture process with an interval about 35 seconds. The focal mechanisms of two events are roughly the same as that of the aftershock, all of them were mainly reverse dip-slipping faulting with minor left-lateral strike-slip motion. These results indicate that the Gonghe earthquake was the result of the farther extension of one NWW-SEE striking buried fault on the southern margin of Gonghe basin from shallower depth to deeper depth and from NW to SE under the action of a nearly horizontal NE direction compressive stress. Contribution No. 95A0111, Institute of Geophysics, SSB, China.     

阿拉善左旗M_S5.8地震前后地震活动性分析和重定位

2015年4月15日15时39分,内蒙古自治区阿拉善左旗(39.78°N,106.34°E)发生M_S5.8级地震,震源深度为10km.本文通过收集中国地震科学台阵探测——喜马拉雅Ⅱ期布设在南北地震带北段的34个流动台站连续观测数据,首先以中国地震局台网中心目录给出的138个地震事件作为模板,采用匹配定位方法(MatchLocate)对阿拉善左旗M_S5.8地震前后(2015年1月1日至2015年7月31日)小震进行了检测和识别,检测后给出的地震事件高达1688个,相比于台网地震目录的地震事件数目增加了10倍多.然后利用双差层析成像方法(tomoDD)对研究区域内阿拉善M_S5.8地震前后(2015-01-01—2015-07-31)1级以上的地震序列进行重定位,重定位后的结果显示:主震震中为39.8023°N、106.4388°E,震源深度为20.597km,余震序列展布优势方向为NEE方向,且在深度方向呈近垂直分布,结合野外地质调查结果和震源机制解分析,认为该次地震事件为一次走滑型事件,其发震断裂可能是一条近E-W向的隐伏断层.     

Spatial scale effects on sediment concentration in runoff during flood events for hilly areas of the Loess Plateau,China

The spatial scale effect on sediment concentration in runoff has received little attention despite numerous studies on sediment yield or sediment delivery ratio in the context of multiple spatial scales. We have addressed this issue for hilly areas of the Loess Plateau, north China where fluvial processes are mainly dominated by hyperconcentrated flows. The data on 717 flow events observed at 17 gauging stations and two runoff experimental plots, all located in the 3906 km² Dalihe watershed, are presented. The combination of the downstream scour of hyperconcentrated flows and the downstream dilution, which is mainly caused by the base flow and is strengthened as a result of the strong patchy storms, determines the spatial change of sediment concentration in runoff during flood events. At the watershed scale, the scouring effect takes predominance first but is subordinate to the downstream dilution with a further increase in spatial scale. As a result, the event mean sediment concentration first increases following a power function with drainage basin area and then declines at the drainage basin area of about 700 km². The power function in combination with the proportional model of the runoff‐sediment yield relationship we proposed before was used to establish the sediment‐yield model, which is neither the physical‐based model nor the regression model. This model, with only two variables (runoff depth and drainage basin area) and two parameters, can provide fairly accurate prediction of event sediment yield with model efficiency over 0·95 if small events with runoff depth lower than 1 mm are excluded. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

北极涛动主模态下北极冷空气的优势路径和影响地区的研究

本文以拉格朗日观点分析北极涛动（Arctic Oscillation,AO）,也被称为北半球环状模（Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode,NAM）的指数异常事件中北极近地面冷气团的活动路径,直接地表现出了异常事件中冷气团运动的优势路径,从而反映出AO/NAM对地面气温的直接调控作用.在正AO/NAM指数异常事件中,极区近地面冷气团活动轨迹以纬向环流为主,表现为环绕北半球中高纬地区的冷气团活动轨迹特征明显.而在负AO/NAM指数异常事件中,极区冷气团以反气旋式轨迹流出极区后,流入中纬度海洋上的低气压区,这种由极区向中纬度地区流动的经向运动轨迹特点显著.并且在指数下降的中后期出现两种强烈影响欧亚大陆的运动轨迹.正负事件中冷气团运动轨迹很好地解释了传统公认的AO/NAM对北半球不同地区冬季气温的影响.特别是对中国冬季气温的影响上,正AO/NAM指数异常事件中的中低层冷气团活动有利于南支槽加深,进而为南方地区冰冻雨雪天气提供了有利条件;而负事件中的极地近地面冷气团可直接影响东北地区,形成寒潮降温天气.

     

Precise dating of East-Asian-Monsoon D/O events during 95―56 ka BP: Based on stalagmite data from Shanbao Cave at Shennongjia, China

Based on 23 U/Th analyses and 532 oxygen isotopic data, an averaged 80-a stalagmite oxygen isotopic composition series was established through 95 to 56 thousand years before present (ka BP) from two speleothems in Shanbao Cave, Shennongjia, central China. Shanbao Cave record (referred to as SB record) replicates well with Hulu Cave record, extending the characteristics of millennial oscillations in East-Asian-Summer-Monsoon (EASM) to the past 95 ka. The trend of the SB record generally follows mid-July solar insolation at 65°N, suggesting that mid-high northern latitude insolation, in the first order, controls changes of EASM intensity. Millennial oscillations of EASM recorded in the stalagmites are well related to the Greenland interstadials referred to as Dansgaard/Oeschger (D/O) events from 1 to 22, indicating that rapid ocean-atmosphere reorganization in North Atlantic has a remote effect in EASM. The well-dated D/O events by stalagmites probably provide an absolute calibration for chronologies of Greenland ice cores. The timings of D/O events in the SB record are different variously from those in Greenland ice cores. For D/O 19 and 20, the age offsets between the stalagmites' and the Greenland ice cores' record are significant, larger than the uncertainties of uranium-series dating. The two events in the SB record are younger than those in North GRIP time scale by 1―2 ka, and older than the counterparts in GISP2 by approximately 3―4 ka. A comparison between the SB and Brazil stalagmite record shows an anti-phase relation in millennial-scale monsoon precipitation between the two localities. This supports a mode for the coupled ocean-atmosphere "See-saw".     

2019年四川威远东两次MS＞5.0地震序列活动特征及震源区体波速度结构

自2015年以来, 四川威远及邻区的地震活动强度显著增强, 其中2019年9月8日和12月18日在威远东发生了M_S5.4和M_S5.2地震, 刷新了威远地区有记录以来历史地震震级上限.本文利用2019年8月至2020年3月期间威远及邻区25个流动台和17个固定台记录到的5638次M_L≥1.2地震Pg和Sg波到时以及连续波形资料, 采用双差层析成像方法获得了威远东这两次地震序列的重定位结果和震源区浅层地壳高分辨率三维体波速度结构.重定位结果显示震源区地震震源深度主要集中在3~4 km.基于两次M_S＞5.0地震震后10天余震序列空间展布, 本文推测两次地震的发震构造均为NNE走向且倾向SE(倾角40°左右)的盲冲断层.三维体波速度结构反演结果揭示: 震源区V_P异常变化较V_S异常变化显著, V_P/V_S比背景值普遍低4%~10%.在深度小于5 km的浅层内, 地震多分布在V_P低速异常和V_S弱高速异常以及二者的高低速异常过渡带内; 在5~7 km深度范围, 地震基本上都发生在V_P低速异常区.上述速度结构特征揭示震源区附近可能发育着富含气体的孔隙和裂缝且存在流体活动.此外, 2019年11月7日以后的地震活动具有明显的流体扩散驱动地震迁移特征, 沿两次地震发震断层走向和倾向的流体扩散系数分别为1.5 m²·s^-1和0.1 m²·s^-1.两次地震的发生机理很可能是流体扩散引起的孔隙压力上升.

     

The effect of the magnitude uncertainty on the b value

IntroductionIt is well accepted that the seismic activity follows a self-similarity way lgN=a--bMproposedby Gutenberg and Richter (1944), where Mis the magnitude, N the sum of events in a certain timeinterval with magnitude larger than or equal to M a and b the constants. Both constants (a and b)are believed to reflect the seismic activity and the seismotCctonic environmellt. This frequencymagnitUde relation simply describes how often the earthquake will happen in one return period.It is b…     

汶川8.0级地震后中国大陆强震活动状态研究

本文从不同空间、 时间尺度对2008年四川汶川8.0级地震的影响意义进行了初步讨论, 并以此分析了其后我国大陆的强震活动状态。研究结果表明, 1800年以来中国大陆西部及邻区的大三角地区8级地震活动呈现为100年左右丛集性时间过程, 具有地震平静、 地震丛集、 地震丛集发生前的过渡和丛集发生后的调整等时间特征; 2001年11月14日昆仑山口西8.1级地震和2008年5月12日四川汶川8.0级地震的发生表明, 目前该地区可能处于8级地震丛集发生前的过渡时段。20世纪以来, 中国大陆7级强震的时间活动过程明显受大三角地区8级地震时间进程的影响, 在8级地震活动的1900—1955年时段内, 7级地震幕式活动划分不显著, 而在8级地震平静的1956—2000年时段内, 7级地震幕式活动划分清晰; 以2008年汶川8.0级地震为标志, 受大三角地区8级左右巨大地震活跃控制, 中国大陆可能将进入一组新的幕式活动不清晰的、 类似于1900—1955年的强震活跃时段。     

Extreme climate events,migration for cultivation and policies:A case study in the early Qing Dynasty of China

Based on the historical records of the annual increase in the workforce (men older than 16 years of age), the annual new taxed cropland in the Shengjing area (Northeast China), the extreme climate events in North China, and related management policies in Northeast China during 1661―1680, a case study has been conducted to investigate the relationship between the extreme climate events in North China and the migration to Northeast China for cultivation. This study has found that the migration to Northeast China for cultivation from 1661 to 1680 was a response to the drought events that occurred in North China. The upsurge of migration, which occurred in 1665―1680, was a response to the drought period during 1664―1680 in North China while the fewer disasters period in Northeast China. There were three migratory peaks during the upsurge of migration, which corresponded to the three drought events. The peaks of migration, however, often lagged behind the drought events about 1―2 years. The encourag-ing-migration policy, which was adopted to encourage cultivation in Northeast China, did not produce much migration into the region in the early Qing Dynasty. It did, however, provide a policy background, which ensured more than 10000 migrants per year to Northeast China when North China suffered from drought/flood disasters. As a response to the highest peak of migration induced by the severe droughts in North China during 1664―1667, a prohibiting-migration policy restricted further migration to Northeast China was carried out in 1668. Although the prohibiting-migration policy could not entirely stop the migrants fleeing from famine in North China to Northeast China, the migrants and cultivation were significantly reduced under the policy. The frequent changes of the policy on the years when taxation started after the land was cultivated were also related to climate events. The extreme climate events in North China, migration to Northeast China for cultivation, and the related management poli-cies showed an impact-response chain, which reflected the interaction among extreme climate events, human behavior, and policies.     

东汉早期的地震活动

东汉早期(公元25—127年)的地震史料十分宝贵, 它反映了从远古零散、 不系统的地震记载转入连续记载并逐渐认识地震的过程. 这时的地震事件较多, 但研究不充分, 地震参数基本呈空白状. 史料的记载方式以“郡国地震”和“京师地震”为主; 时间上, 基本在汉和帝以后; 地点上, 以大华北为主. 本文具体分析了东汉早期的33次地震事件, 利用新的地震烈度衰减关系, 采用郡国平均地理面积和有感面积的概念, 比照地震范例的标准, 按《中国地震目录》的烈度震级表进行参数估算. 研究期间最主要的地震事件是4次震级≥6 ¹/₂ 的强震, 即公元46年10月和119年3月南阳地震、 121年10月冀南-鲁西地震和123年5月汉阳地震, 震后都有持续1—2年的余震活动. 公元118年前的地震主要分布于大华北, 震中至京师洛阳的距离多在200 km以外. 除两次5 ¹/₂ —6级地震外, 均属5—5 ¹/₂ 级中等强度地震, 少数小于4 ³/₄ 级. 京师洛阳虽经历过多次地震, 但其受影响程度并不强, 基本为有感或强有感的水平, 没有遭受过破坏性或中等强度的震害.     

中国热浪前期信号及其模式预报

在中国1979—2008年发生的87场区域干热浪事件中有83场区域干热浪事件可以在250 hPa层高度扰动场上追踪到前期信号.高度扰动信号的移动方向可分为低纬向西和中纬向东传播的两类,前期信号平均出现的时间为7天.中国南方热浪的前期信号,一部分(19%)来自低纬西北太平洋,平均提前4.6天,而大部分(81%)的前期信号来自欧洲和中国西北地区,可提前2—15天,这些信号沿中纬度自西向东移动到达100°E—110°E和40°N附近地区.中心位置发生在北方的区域干热浪事件,前期扰动信号都来自欧亚中高纬度.统计得到,250 hPa层的高度扰动达到120gpm与地面出现区域干热浪相对应的次数占41%.降低区域干热浪的定义标准,高度扰动作为前期信号的正确率会得到提高.在分析2003年中国夏季江南—华南大范围持续热浪事件的基础上,用欧洲中期天气预报中心的模式产品,对这次热浪500 hPa高度场做物理分解,结果发现模式对高度扰动的预报具有提前1—7天的预示能力.