Field survey of the East Java earthquake and tsunami of June 3, 1994

A field survey of the June 3, 1994 East Java earthquake tsunami was conducted within three weeks, and the distributions of the seismic intensities, tsunami heights, and human and house damages were surveyed. The seismic intensities on the south coasts of Java and Bali Islands were small for an earthquake with magnitudeM 7.6. The earthquake caused no land damage. About 40 minutes after the main shock, a huge tsunami attacked the coasts, several villages in East Java Province were damaged severely, and 223 persons perished. At Pancer Village about 70 percent of the houses were swept away and 121 persons were killed by the tsunami. The relationship between tsunami heights and distances from the source shows that the Hatori's tsunami magnitude wasm=3, which seems to be larger for the earthquake magnitude. But we should not consider this an extraordinary event because it was pointed out byHatori (1994) that the magnitudes of tsunamis in the Indonesia-Philippine region generally exceed 1–2 grade larger than those of other regions.     

The landslides and tsunamis of the 30th of December 2002 in Stromboli analysed through numerical simulations

On the 30th of December 2002 two tsunamis were generated only 7 min apart in Stromboli, southern Tyrrhenian Sea, Italy. They represented the peak of a volcanic crisis that started 2 days before with a large emission of lava flows from a lateral vent that opened some hundreds of meters below the summit craters. Both tsunamis were produced by landslides that detached from the Sciara del Fuoco. This is a morphological scar and is the result of the last collapse of the northwestern flank of the volcanic edifice, that occurred less than 5 ka b.p. The first tsunami was due to a submarine mass movement that started very close to the coastline and that involved about 20×10⁶ m³ of material. The second tsunami was engendered by a subaerial landslide that detached at about 500 m above sea level and that involved a volume estimated at 4–9×10⁶ m³. The latter landslide can be seen as the retrogressive continuation of the first failure. The tsunamis were not perceived as distinct events by most people. They attacked all the coasts of Stromboli within a few minutes and arrived at the neighbouring island of Panarea, 20 km SSW of Stromboli, in less than 5 min. The tsunamis caused severe damage at Stromboli.In this work, the two tsunamis are studied by means of numerical simulations that use two distinct models, one for the landslides and one for the water waves. The motion of the sliding bodies is computed by means of a Lagrangian approach that partitions the mass into a set of blocks: we use both one-dimensional and two-dimensional schemes. The landslide model calculates the instantaneous rate of the vertical displacement of the sea surface caused by the motion of the underwater slide. This is included in the governing equations of the tsunami, which are solved by means of a finite-element (FE) technique. The tsunami is computed on two different grids formed by triangular elements, one covering the near-field around Stromboli and the other also including the island of Panarea.The simulations show that the main tsunamigenic potential of the slides is restricted to the first tens of seconds of their motion when they interact with the shallow-water coastal area, and that it diminishes drastically in deep water. The simulations explain how the tsunamis that are generated in the Sciara del Fuoco area, are able to attack the entire coastline of Stromboli with larger effects on the northern coast than on the southern. Strong refraction and bending of the tsunami fronts is due to the large near-shore bathymetric gradient, which is also responsible for the trapping of the waves and for the persistence of the oscillations. Further, the first tsunami produces large waves and runup heights comparable with the observations. The simulated second tsunami is only slightly smaller, though it was induced by a mass that is approximately one third of the first. The arrival of the first tsunami is negative, in accordance with most eyewitness reports. Conversely, the leading wave of the second tsunami is positive.     

Tsunami and its Hazard in the Indian and Pacific Oceans: Introduction

The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami caused an estimated 230,000 casualties, the worst tsunami disaster in history. A similar-sized tsunami in the Pacific Ocean, generated by the 1960 Chilean earthquake, commenced international collaborations on tsunami warning systems, and in the tsunami research community through the Tsunami Commission of International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics. The IUGG Tsunami Commission, established in 1960, has been holding the biannual International Tsunami Symposium (ITS). This volume contains selected papers mostly presented at the 22nd ITS, held in the summer of 2005. This introduction briefly summarizes the progress of tsunami and earthquake research as well as international cooperation on tsunami warning systems and the impact of the 2004 tsunami. Brief summaries of each paper are also presented.     

Source characteristics of the 1992 Nicaragua tsunami earthquake inferred from teleseismic body waves

We analyzed the broadband body waves of the 1992 Nicaragua earthquake to determine the nature of rupture. The rupture propagation was represented by the distribution of point sources with moment-rate functions at 9 grid points with uniform spacing of 20 km along the fault strike. The moment-rate functions were then parameterized, and the parameters were determined with the least squares method with some constraints. The centroid times of the individual moment-rate functions indicate slow and smooth rupture propagation at a velocity of 1.5 km/s toward NW and 1.0 km/s toward SE. Including a small initial break which precedes the main rupture by about 10 s, we obtained a total source duration of 110 s. The total seismic moment isM _o =3.4×10²⁰ Nm, which is consistent with the value determined from long-period surface waves,M _o =3.7×10²⁰ Nm. The average rise time of dislocation is determined to be 10 s. The major moment release occurred along a fault length of 160 km. With the assumption of a fault widthW=50 km, we obtained the dislocationD=1.3 m. From andD the dislocation velocity isD=D/0.1 m/s, significantly smaller than the typical value for ordinary earthquakes. The stress drop =1.1 MPa is also less than the typical value for subduction zone earthquakes by a factor of 2–3. On the other hand, the apparent stress defined by 2E _s /M _o , where andE _s are respectively the rigidity and the seismic wave energy, is 0.037 MPa, more than an order of magnitude smaller than . The Nicaragua tsunami earthquake is characterized by the following three properties: 1) slow rupture propagation; 2) smooth rupture; 3) slow dislocation motion.     

Tracer hydrology of the data-scarce and heterogeneous Central American Isthmus

Numerous socio-economic activities depend on the seasonal rainfall and groundwater recharge cycle across the Central American Isthmus. Population growth and unregulated land use changes resulted in extensive surface water pollution and a large dependency on groundwater resources. This work combines stable isotope variations in rainfall, surface water, and groundwater of Costa Rica, Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Honduras to develop a regionalized rainfall isoscape, isotopic lapse rates, spatial–temporal isotopic variations, and air mass back trajectories determining potential mean recharge elevations, moisture circulation patterns, and surface water–groundwater interactions. Intra-seasonal rainfall modes resulted in two isotopically depleted incursions (W-shaped isotopic pattern) during the wet season and two enriched pulses during the mid-summer drought and the months of the strongest trade winds. Notable isotopic sub-cloud fractionation and near-surface secondary evaporation were identified as common denominators within the Central American Dry Corridor. Groundwater and surface water isotope ratios depicted the strong orographic separation into the Caribbean and Pacific domains, mainly induced by the governing moisture transport from the Caribbean Sea, complex rainfall producing systems across the N-S mountain range, and the subsequent mixing with local evapotranspiration, and, to a lesser degree, the eastern Pacific Ocean fluxes. Groundwater recharge was characterized by (a) depleted recharge in highland areas (72.3%), (b) rapid recharge via preferential flow paths (13.1%), and enriched recharge due to near-surface secondary fractionation (14.6%). Median recharge elevation ranged from 1,104 to 1,979 m a.s.l. These results are intended to enhance forest conservation practices, inform water protection regulations, and facilitate water security and sustainability planning in the Central American Isthmus.     

滇中地区4级调制地震与中强地震的关系

利用1965年1月1日-2006年6月30日云南省地震遥测台网记录的地震正式目录,对正式目录的中强以上地震进行了余震删除.利用已删除余震的正式目录,研究滇中地区4级调制地震与中强地震的三要素关系,总结历史震例得到:滇中地区发生4级调制地震,其后发生中强以上地震的可能性为75%,平均间隔时间为4.7月;而且中强震发震地点与4级调制地震发震地点相关性较好,平均相隔距离为76 km;发生4级孤立型调制地震(无余震发生),其后发生6.5级以上强震的概率为67%;曲江断裂带上发生的4级孤立型调制地震对未来中强震的地点指示意义明确,震级大小与孕震时间相关.     

海啸初期诱发形成阶段的研究

对近年来有关海啸初期阶段几种激发模式的理论与实验研究的成果做了总体的回顾与阐述,同时对一些存在的问题和前人未给予说明的地方做了些扩充.     

Comparative assessment of nonlinear static and dynamic methods for analysing building response under sequential earthquake and tsunami

This paper presents a comprehensive comparison of different dynamic and static approaches for assessing building performance under sequential earthquakes and tsunami. A 10-storey reinforced concrete seismically designed Japanese vertical evacuation structure is adopted as a case study for the investigation. The case study building is first assessed under sequential earthquake and tsunami nonlinear response history analyses: the first time this is done in the literature. The resulting engineering demand parameters are then compared with those obtained when the analysis procedure is systematically simplified by substituting different static approaches for the nonlinear response history analyses in both the earthquake and tsunami loading phases. Different unloading approaches are also tested for the cases when an earthquake pushover is adopted. The results show that an earthquake nonlinear response history analysis, followed by a transient free vibration and a tsunami variable depth pushover, provides the best alternative to full dynamic analyses in terms of accuracy and computational efficiency. This structural analysis combination is recommended and has the advantage that it does not require the tsunami inundation time history to be known in advance. The proposed double pushover approach is instead deemed only suitable for the collapse assessment of regular low to mid-rise buildings and for the development of collapse fragility functions. An important observation made is that sustained earthquake damage seems not to affect the tsunami resistance of the case study building when the fully dynamic analysis is carried out for the sequential loading. This observation will be the subject of future work.     

甘肃中东部地区新增补的几次中强历史地震

在甘肃中东部地区进行历史地震资料考证和野外实地调查过程中,新整理了7次中强历史地震的史料。根据综合分析及类比的原则和方法,初步确定或修订了各次地震的基本参数,为深入分析该地区的地震构造活动提供了新的资料和线索。     

云南中小地震矩震级的测定

利用云南省测震台网的数字地震波形资料,反演了2008年1月至2012年9月675个中小地震的震源波谱参数,并计算了这些地震的地震矩M0和矩震级Mw,最后利用回归分析方法得到了近震震级ML和Mw之间的关系式.     

2008年5月12日汶川地震谱震级及相关问题研究

基于P波和S波的谱震级特征对汶川地震进行了定量研究,可以看出P波和S波的最大谱震级出现在不同的周期上。对这一现象的构造物理意义进行了讨论,推测相对于P波而言,地震发生期间辐射的S波能量来自异常大的震源体积。选择部分全球地震的谱特征为背景,对汶川地震的体波谱震级特征进行了分析,结论是汶川地震的特征与其所处的周边环境是一致的。     

四川地震震级与烈度区面积和震源深度的关系

本文按照地震地质分区,同时考虑7级以上地震的空间分布特征,分四川为鲜水河、松潘—龙门山及马边地震带等几个区带,对四川1900年以来既有仪器测定参数、又有宏观烈度考查的33个地震资料,应用多元线性回归分析方法,统计拟合出了震级与不同烈度区面积、烈度值、震源深度之间的多组关系式,其一般形式为:■相关系数R大都在0.90左右,用部分地震检验的结果表明,震级误差一般小于0.3,震源深度误差一般小于5公里,基本消除了离散情况,笔者用求得的关系式对1900年以前的有三条以上等震线的部分历史地震的震级、震源深度进行了标定,结果也比较令人满意。     

中原地区ML4.0以上地震的平静异常与虚报率分析

选取中原地区（30°-38°N,109°-118°E）1970年1月至2018年10月M_L ≥ 4.0地震,分析4级地震平静异常与异常结束后发生的M_S ≥ 4.5地震的相关性,判定4.0级地震平静异常指标为90天,统计平静异常结束后1.5年内M_S ≥ 4.5地震的发生概率,发现异常映震率为61.8%,计算得到地震预报效能评分R值=0.547,说明4级地震异常平静预测效能明显。分析认为,利用4.0级地震平静90天预测中原地区M_S ≥ 4.5地震具有一定指示意义,结合该区地震平静时段进行分析,可明显减少地震虚报率。     

A nonlinear polar coordinate shallow water model for tsunami computation along North Sumatra and Penang Island

A nonlinear shallow water model in cylindrical polar coordinate system is developed, using an explicit finite difference scheme with a very fine resolution, to compute different aspects of tsunami at North Sumatra and the adjacent island Simeulue in Indonesia, and the Penang Island in Peninsular Malaysia. The pole of the frame is placed on the mainland of Penang (100.5°E) and the model area extends up to the west of Sumatra (87.5°E). The model is applied to simulate the propagation of tsunami wave towards North Sumatra, Simeulue and Penang Islands associated with Indonesian tsunami of 26 December 2004. The model is also applied to compute water levels along the coastal belts of those islands. Computed and observed water level data are found to be in good agreement and North Sumatra is found to be vulnerable for very high surges. The computed and observed arrival times of high surges are also in reasonable agreement everywhere. Further studies are carried out to investigate the effect of convective terms and it is found that their effects are insignificant in tsunami propagation and weakly significant for wave amplitude very near to the coast.     

汶川地震序列b值的分析研究

采用Aki等（1965）和Shi等（1982）计算b值及标准差的方法,分析了2008年5月12日～2008年8月31日四川地震台网所记录到的汶川地震序列ML≥2．0地震的b值,在空间、时间以及随震源深度的变化特征。结果显示：汶川地震序列b值在震源区上分布是非均匀的,但基本在[0．5,0．9]之间变化,震源区的中段b值高于两端;同时发现,几次M≥6．0余震都发生在b值较低的区域内;震源区b值具有随震源深度增加而减小的趋势,在20km左右处,减小的趋势最为明显;随着时间的推移,b值波动变化幅度逐渐减小,周期变大。     

超大功率振动源在首都圈地区地震监测预报中的应用研究

俄罗斯科学家西伯利亚分院研制了几种型号的超大功率振动源，其特点是功率大，信号传播距离远，探测深度大。目前，我国首都圈地区已建成由100多个子台组成的数字化地震台网。文章介绍了俄罗斯超大功率振动源及其在我国首都圈地区地震监测预报中的应用研究。     

中原地区M≥6级地震后的减(增)震效应

通过对中原地区1500年－2000年所有19次M≥6级地震后空间图像的分析，初步认为M≥6级地震发生后平均63年内，在距原震中平均176km内无M≥5级地震发生，全部19次震例均呈现出内部减震效应，而在其外围出现地震增强的活动图像特征，增震效应对应率为72％。这种强震后的减（增）震效应，不仅对地震危险性分析，而且对1年尺度以上的地震趋势预测均有一定的意义。     

Impact of the 6 April 2009 L'Aquila earthquake on groundwater flow in the Gran Sasso carbonate aquifer,Central Italy

The Mw = 6·3 L'Aquila earthquake on 6 April 2009 produced a mainshock that caused significant changes in the hydrogeology of the Gran Sasso carbonate fractured aquifer: (i) the sudden disappearance at the time of the mainshock of some springs located exactly along the surface trace of the Paganica normal fault (PF); (ii) an immediate increase in the discharge of the Gran Sasso highway tunnel drainages and of other springs and (iii) a progressive increase of the water table elevation at the boundary of the Gran Sasso aquifer during the following months. Using the data collected since the 1990s that include aftershock monitoring as well as data regarding spring discharge, water table elevations, turbidity and rainfall events, a conceptual model of the earthquake's consequences on the Gran Sasso aquifer is proposed herein. In this model that excludes the contribution of seasonal recharge, the short‐term hydrologic effects registered immediately after the mainshock are determined to have been caused by a pore pressure increase related to aquifer deformation. Mid‐term effects observed in the months following the mainshock suggest that there was a change in groundwater hydrodynamics. Supplementary groundwater that flows towards aquifer boundaries and springs in discharge areas reflects a possible increase in hydraulic conductivity in the recharge area, nearby the earthquake fault zone. This increase can be attributed to fracture clearing and/or dilatancy. Simulations by numerical modelling, related to pore pressure and permeability changes with time, show results in accordance with observed field data, supporting the conceptual model and confirming the processes that influenced the answer of the Gran Sasso aquifer to the L'Aquila earthquake. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

地震活动图像特征与强震危险区经验性预测依据的初步研究

在研究近期（10年）强震危险性判定和总结四川地区1972--2002年强震预测经验的基础上，清理了中国大陆1920--2002年47次浅源大震事件前地震活动图像特征（M≥4．7），提炼出10个方面12项经验性预测依据：主体活动区、多发时段、关联序列、大陆及地区地震异常图像、地区（带）-地段（震源区）地震增强图像（含信号震、诱发地震、地震条带）、相关地震、窗口地震、复发间隔、大陆及地区缺震、地段缺震与地段强震一缺震转折等。它们在47次震例中的综合出现率≥0．58（即依据比7／12以上）占42例；≥0．66（即8／12以上）占34例。因此，强震（M≥4．7）活动图像经验性预测依据可以作为预测有较大可能发生大地震危险区的依据之一。     

三河-平谷8.0级大震区震源细结构的深地震反射探测研究

在1679年三河-平谷8.0级大震的震源区布置了两条总长140km，24次覆盖的近垂直深地震反射剖面，剖面穿过夏垫断裂及二十里长山断裂，结果表明，该区以双程走时7.0s(21km)左右和11.0-12.5s(33-37km)左右的两个强反射叠层把地壳分为上地壳，下地壳和壳幔过渡带；地壳结构在纵向上差异较大，浅部成层性较好，层组较多，结构复杂；上地壳总体呈反射“透明”性质，下部地壳表现为明显的反射性质；在横向上也具有明显的差异；深部断裂主要有夏垫断裂下方的地壳深断裂，断层面较陡，近下直立，该断裂可能为三河-平谷8.0级大地震的发震断裂；分别在两条剖面下地壳和上地壳下部存在局部强反射能量团，应为上地幔物质上涌冷却形成的岩墙或岩体；由于该处的岩浆活动造成了局部应力分布的差异。导致了地壳深断裂的形成，这可能是三河8.0级大震的深部构造背景。