Climate model sensitivity to sea ice albedo parameterization

Summary Three one-year experimental simulations with the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model (NCAR CCM) were performed with three sea ice albedo parameterizations and compared with control run results to examine their impact on polar surface temperature, planetary albedo and clouds. The first integration utilized sea ice albedos of the Arctic Basin for the spring and summer of 1977 derived from defence Meteorological Satellite Imagery (DMSP). The second simulation employed prescribed lead and melt pond fractions and an albedo weighting scheme. The third simulation involved the coupling of an interactive sea ice/snow albedo parameterization made a function of surface state.Results show that prescribed, and assumed true satellite sea ice albedos produced higher planetary albedos than those calculated with the standard CCM sea ice albedo scheme in the control run. As a result, lower temperatures (up to 0.5 K) and increased cloudiness are generated for the Arctic region. The standard CCM sea ice albedo scheme is used as an adjustment to maintain normal temperatures for the polar oceans. The radiative impact of leads and melt ponds warmed sea ice regions only for short time periods. The third scheme generated markedly lower planetary albedos (reductions of 0.07 to 0.17) and higher surface temperatures (up to 2.0 K) than control values.The CCM simulates a gradual decrease in spring and summer Arctic cloud cover whereas observations show a sharp spring increase. Examination of the CCM code, particularly the cloud parameterization, is required to address this problem.With 12 Figures     

Northern hemisphere atmospheric response to changes of atlantic ocean SST on decadal time scales: a GCM experiment

Analyses indicate that the Atlantic Ocean seasurface temperature (SST) was considerably colder at the beginning than in the middle of the century. In parallel, a systematic change in the North Atlantic sea-level pressure (SLP) pattern was observed. To find out whether the SST and SLP changes analyzed are consistent, which would indicate that the SST change was real and not an instrumental artifact, a response experiment with a low-resolution (T21) atmospheric GCM was performed. Two perpetual January simulations were conducted, which differ solely in the Atlantic Ocean (40° S-60° N) SST: the cold simulation utilizes the SSTs for the period 1904–1913; the warm simulation uses the SSTs for the period 1951–1960. Also, a control run with the model's standard SST somewhat between the cold and warm SST was made. For the response analysis, a rigorous statistical approach was taken. First, the null hypothesis of identical horizontal distributions was subjected to a multivariate significance test. Second, the level of recurrence was estimated. The multivariate statistical approaches are based on hierarchies of test models. We examined three different hierarchies: a scale-dependent hierarchy based on spherical harmonics (S), and two physically motivated ones, one based on the barotropic normal modes of the mean 300 hPa flow (B) and one based on the eigenmodes of the advection diffusion operator at 1000 hPa (A). The intercomparison of the cold and warm experiments indicates a signal in the geostrophic stream function that in the S-hierarchy is significantly nonzero and highly recurrent. In the A-hierarchy, the low level temperature field is identified as being significantly and recurrently affected by the altered SST distribution. The SLP signal is reasonably similar to the SLP change observed. Unexpectedly, the upper level stream-function signal does not appear to be significantly nonzero in the B-hierarchy. If, however, the pairs of experiments warm versus control and cold versus control are examined in the B-hierarchy, a highly significant and recurrent signal emerges. We conclude that the cold versus warm response is not a small disturbance that would allow the signal to be described by eigenmodes of the linear system. An analysis of the three-dimensional structure of the signal leads to the hypothesis that two different mechanisms are acting to modify the model's mean state. At low levels, local heating and advection are dominant, but at upper levels the extratropical signal is a remote responce to modifications of the tropical convection.This paper was presented at the International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 11–15 September 1989 under the auspices of the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is Dr. L. Dilmenil.AWI Publication no. 254     

The performance of an E−l scheme for the atmospheric boundary layer in a mesoscale model with grid spacing as small as 1 km

Summary ¶A new E–l boundary layer scheme is tested within the U.S. Navys COAMPS model. The goal is to give COAMPS the capability to simulate mesoscale cellular convection. The new scheme is aimed to be consistent with both classic results for clear entrainment and recent calibrations, derived from large-eddy simulations, for entrainment into smoke clouds and water clouds. A parameter is included in the scheme that allows sub-grid transport to be reduced so that, when the model has 2km grid spacing or less, more of the transport is forced to occur in resolved convection. At 2km grid spacing, the scheme allows COAMPS to simulate the break up of a stratocumulus cloud deck into mesoscale cellular convection.Received June 7, 2002; accepted August 13, 2002 Published online: February 20, 2003     

Small-Scale Variability in the Coastal Atmospheric Boundary Layer

The influence of the main large-scale wind directions on thermally driven mesoscale circulations at the Baltic southwest coast, southeast of Sweden, is examined. The aim of the study is to highlight small-scale alterations in the coastal atmospheric boundary layer. A numerical three-dimensional mesoscale model is used in this study, which is focused on an overall behaviour of the coastal jets, drainage flows, sea breezes, and a low-level eddy-type flow in particular. It is shown that synoptic conditions, together with the moderate terrain of the southeast of Sweden (max. height h₀ 206 m), governs the coastal mesoscale dynamics triggered by the land-sea temperature difference T. The subtle nature of coastal low-level jets and sea breezes is revealed; their patterns are dictated by the interplay between synoptic airflow, coastline orientation, and T.The simulations show that coastal jets typically occur during nighttime and vary in height, intensity and position with respect to the coast; they interact with downslope flows and the background wind. For the assigned land surface temperature (varying ±8 K from the sea temperature) and the opposing constant geostrophic wind 8 m s^-1, the drainage flow is more robust to the opposing ambient flow than the sea breeze later on. Depending on the part of the coast under consideration, and the prevailing ambient wind, the sea breeze can be suppressed or enhanced, stationary at the coast or rapidly penetrating inland, locked up in phase with another dynamic system or almost independently self-evolving. A low-level eddy structure is analyzed. It is governed by tilting, divergence and horizontal advection terms. The horizontal extent of the coastal effects agrees roughly with the Rossby radius of deformation.     

Effect of land management on ecosystem carbon fluxes at a subalpine grassland site in the Swiss Alps

Summary The influence of agricultural management on the CO₂ budget of a typical subalpine grassland was investigated at the Swiss CARBOMONT site at Rigi-Seebodenalp (1025m a.s.l.) in Central Switzerland. Eddy covariance flux measurements obtained during the first growing season from the mid of spring until the first snow fall (17 Mai to 25 September 2002) are reported. With respect to the 10-year average 1992–2001, we found that this growing season had started 10 days earlier than normal, but was close to average temperature with above-normal precipitation (100–255% depending on month). Using a footprint model we found that a simple approach using wind direction sectors was adequate to classify our CO₂ fluxes as being controlled by either meadow or pasture. Two significantly different light response curves could be determined: one for periods with external interventions (grass cutting, cattle grazing) and the other for periods without external interventions. Other than this, meadow and pasture were similar, with a net carbon gain of –128±17g Cm^–2 on the undisturbed meadow, and a net carbon loss of 79±17g Cm^–2 on the managed meadow, and 270±24g Cm^–2 on the pasture during 131 days of the growing season, respectively. The grass cut in June reduced the gross CO₂ uptake of the meadow by 50±2% until regrowth of the vegetation. Cattle grazing reduced gross uptake over the whole vegetation period (37±2%), but left respiration at a similar level as observed in the meadow.     

Numerical modeling of the nocturnal urban boundary layer

A numerical case study with a second-order turbulence closure model is proposed to study the role of urban canopy layer (UCL) for the formation of the nocturnal urban boundary layer (UBL). The turbulent diffusion coefficient was determined from an algebraic stress model. The concept of urban building surface area density is proposed to represent the UCL. Calculated results were also compared with field observation data. The height of the elevated inversion above an urban center was simulated and found to be approximately twice the average building height. The turbulent kinetic energy k, energy dissipation rate , and turbulence intensities u ² and w ² increase rapidly at the upwind edge of the urban area. The Reynolds stress uw displayed a nearly uniform profile inside the UBL, and the vertical sensible heat flux w had a negative value at the inversion base height. This indicates that the downward transport of sensible heat from the inversion base may play an important role in the formation of the nocturnal UBL.     

A note on the analogy between momentum transfer across a rough solid surface and the air-sea interface

The aerodynamic classification of the resistance laws above solid surfaces is based on the use of a so-called Reynolds roughness number Re _s =h _s u _*/, whereh _s is the effective roughness height, -viscosity,u _*-friction velocity. The recent experimental studies reported by Toba and Ebuchi (1991), demonstrated that the observed variability of the sea roughness cannot be explained only on the basis of the classification of aerodynamic conditions of the sea surface proposed by Kitaigorodskii and Volkov (1965) and Kitaigorodskii (1968) even though the latter approach gains some support from recent experimental studies (see for example Geernaertet al. 1986). In this paper, an attempt is made to explain some of the recently observed features of the variability of surface roughness (Toba and Ebuchi, 1991; Donelanet al., 1993). The fluctuating regime of the sea surface roughness is also described. It is shown that the contribution from the dissipation subrange to the variability of the sea surface can be very important and by itself can explain Charnock's (1955) regime.     

Cloud changes in a warmer Europe

Cloud cover records for western Europe have been analysed in the context of the warming world analogue model described by Lough et al. (1983). It is found that cloud cover has generally increased in moving from a cold period (1901–1920) to a warm period (1934–1953). The exception to this general trend is over the central part of the area considered (Germany, France and some parts of Spain) where there is a tendency towards decreasing cloud as warming occurs. While the results presented here are not closely correlated with the temperature and precipitation results of Lough et al. (1983), there is support for their hypothesis that cloudiness increased in autumn over northern Europe. The suggestion that successful performance of numerical climate models in seasonal simulations might demonstrate adequacy in other climatic simulation modes is also examined It is shown that whilst there is good agreement with observations in one such numerical model in the seasonal simulation, there is no agreement in the case of a warming world in either the direction or the amount of cloudiness change.     

Homogeneity,spatial correlation and spectral variance analysis of long European and North American air temperature records

Summary Recently the authors have collected 242 surface air temperature records all over the world covering at least the 1881–1980 observation period. In this paper results of the statistical analysis of 118 European and 64 North American records are presented. As a first step the homogeneity of these records is tested using different statistical techniques. Secondly, the spatial correlations are assessed. These correlations appear to increase with the latitude and continentality of the stations. Finally, the spectral variance is analyzed using the conventional autocorrelation and the maximum entropy technique. Moreover, these techniques are applied in a dynamic way (moving with time). On the basis of this integrated and dynamic analysis the spatial pattern of spectral variance is characterized.

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Zusammenfassung Kürzlich haben die Autoren 242 Reihen der bodennahen Lufttemperatur aus aller Welt zusammengestellt, die mindestens den Beobachtungszeitraum 1881 – 1980 umfassen. In der vorliegenden Studie werden nun einige Ergebnisse der statistischen Analyse von 118 europäischen und 64 nordamerikanischen Reihen vorgestellt. Zuerst wird die Homogenität dieser Stationen mit Hilfe von verschiedenen Techniken getestet. Es folgt eine Abschätzung der räumlichen Korrelationen. Dabei zeigt sich, daß diese Korrelationen mit der geographischen Breite und der Kontinentalität der Stationen ansteigen. Zuletzt wird die spektrale Verteilung der Varianz sowohl mittels der herkömmlichen Autokorrelations-als auch mittels der Maximum-Entropie Technik analysiert. Diese Techniken werden auch dynamisch, d. h. gleitend mit der Zeit, angewandt. Auf der Basis dieser integrierten und dynamischen Analyse lassen sich die räumlichen Muster der spektralen Varianz charakterisieren.

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With 8 Figures     

Occurrence of roll circulations in a shallow boundary layer

Meteorological measurements taken at the Näsudden wind turbine site during slightly unstable conditions have been analyzed. The height of the convective boundary layer (CBL) was rather low, varying between 60 and 300 m. Turbulence statistics near the ground followed Monin-Obukhov similarity, whereas the remaining part of the boundary layer can be regarded as a near neutral upper layer. In 55% of the runs, horizontal roll vortices were found. Those were the most unstable runs, with -z _i/L > 5. Spectra and co-spectra are used to identify the structures. Three roll indicators were identified: (i) a low frequency peak in the spectrum of the lateral component at low level; (ii) a corresponding increase in the vertical component at mid-CBL; (iii) a positive covariance {ovvw} together with positive wind shear in the lateral direction (V/z) in the CBL. By applying these indicators, it is possible to show that horizontal roll circulations are likely to be a common phenomenon over the Baltic during late summer and early winter.     

Use of precipitation data for diabatic initialization to improve the tropical analysis of divergence and moisture

Summary First, we review the present status of diabatic initialization used for numerical weather prediction and conclude that the deficiency of diabatic initialization mostly stems from the shortcoming in evaluating diabatic heating rates accurately, particularly the release of latent heat by cumulus convection. This indicates the need to adjust the initial conditions for physical processes, and Krishnamurti and his colleagues introduced in 1984 the concept of physical initialization. Since cumulus convection is most sensitive to input data among many physical processes, the adjustment of atmospheric input data to a prediction model to produce desired initial precipitation rates is referred to as cumulus initialization.In this article we describe a general approach to diabatic initialization with a special emphasis on cumulus initialization. We present the results of forecasting experiments with a version of the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM) to demonstrate the efficacy of a cumulus initialization procedure to ameliorate the spinup problern of precipitation. Finally, we discuss application of the present methodology of cumulus initialization for a stability-dependent mass-flux cumulus parameterization of CCM2 to pave the way to complete the diabatic normal mode initialization package for CCM2. Note that the present cumulus initialization scheme can be used to assimilate into the atmospheric analysis of the tropics the precipitation rates estimated by satellite radiometric imagery data.With 8 FiguresThe National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation     

On the sampling of airborne measurements of radiative properties of cloud fields: Results from International Cirrus Experiment (ICE), 1987

Summary During the first pilot phase of the International Cirrus Experiment (ICE) in September/October 1987 radiation measurements were carried out above and below broken cloud fields over the German Bight. Analyses of the measurements of 25.9.1987 (broken cumulus cloud field) showed an unexpected high absorption of solar radiation but not those of 28.9.1987 (stratocumulus/stratus cloud field). This might be explained by a partial negligence of cloud side factor under the viewing geometry of the pyranometer and other reasons. The light guide effect (leakage) within holes can account for the depletion of cloud reflectance and the enhancement of cloud transmittance at large cloud cover, as observed during the measurements on 28.9.1987. The fluctuation of the irradiances, which can be characterized by the intermittency parameter, has been related to the corresponding cloud cover by a regression equation. On the condition of similarity, this scaling parameter derived from sample measurements could be extrapolated to that of the whole cloud field. Thus, the estimation of the irradiance spectrum for the whole cloud field may be possible, from samples taken with aircraft and imaging data.With 5 Figures     

Analyzing the basic features of different complex terrain flows by means of a Doppler Sodar and a numerical model: Some implications for air pollution problems

Summary A variety of programmes and field experiments were carried out in order to develop and evaluate models of transport and diffusion of pollutants in complex terrain areas. As part of this programme, in this study, we have focused our interest on analyzing the basic features of different flow fields and thermal structures developed in a complex area and their relation to air pollution problems. The area is located in the province of Barcelona (in the northeast of Spain) close to a wide industrial zone, thus a pollutant flux could affect this region. In order to carry out the main purpose of this study we have analysed data from a Doppler Sodar (FAS 64) and a network of near surface meteorological and air quality stations. In addition, different dynamical simulations given by a numerical mesoscale model (MM5) are also analyzed. The results show that the main flow fields and thermal structures generated in this area are: sea breeze, slope drainage winds, channelling winds created by terrain constrictions and cool-air accumulation in low-lying regions. This last structure, developed specially in winter time, gives rise to stagnant cold air masses and strong thermic inversions, with average lapse rate of –4 degrees on 100m, which contribute to increase air pollution concentration, especially SO₂. Hourly and daily averaged SO₂ concentration can be higher than 350 and 138µgm^–3 respectively. In addition, as La Plana is located not far from the Mediterranean Sea, during summertime the sea breeze arrives into this zone via its southern entrance, thereby reaching the whole area. The arrival of the sea breeze in to La Plana, which advects pollutants from the nearby industrial area, is the main cause of some of these pollutants, especially ozone and its precursors, attaining high concentrations during afternoon hours. The contribution of the sea breeze is variable, but could represent between a 25% to a 30% of its total value.     

Carbon dioxide emissions in a methane economy

Increasing reliance on natural gas (methane) to meet global energy demands holds implications for atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. Analysis of these implications is presented, based on a logistic substitution model viewing energy technologies like biological species invading an econiche and substituting in case of superiority for existing species. This model suggests gas will become the dominant energy source and remain so for 50 years, peaking near 70 percent of world supply. Two scenarios of energy demand are explored, one holding per capita consumption at current levels, the second raising the global average in the year 2100 to the current U.S. level. In the first (efficiency) scenario concentrations peak about 450 ppm, while in the second (long wave) they near 600 ppm. Although projected CO₂ concentrations in a methane economy are low in relation to other scenarios, the projections confirm that global climate warming is likely to be a major planetary concern throughout the twenty-first century. A second finding is that data on past growth of world per capita energy consumption group neatly into two pulses consistent with longwave theories in economics.     

Analytical solutions for the Ekman layer

The PBL equation that governs the transition from the constant-stress surface layer to the geostrophic wind in a neutrally stratified atmosphere for which the eddy viscosityK(z) is assumed to vary smoothly from the surface-layer value U _*z (0.4,U _*=friction velocity,z=elevation) to the geostrophic asymptoteK _GU _*d forzd is solved through an expansion in fd/U _*1 (f=Coriolis parameter). The resulting solution is separated into Ekman's constant-K solution an inner component that reduces to the classical logarithmic form forzd and isO() relative to the Ekman component forzd. The approximationKU _*d is supported by the solution of Nee and Kovasznay's phenomenological transport equation forK(z), which yieldsK–U _*d exp(–z/d), where is an empirical constant for which observation implies, 1. The parametersA andB in Kazanskii and Monin's similarity relation forG/U _* (G=geostrophic velocity) are determined as functions of . The predicted values ofG/U _* and the turning angle are in agreement with the observed values for the Leipzig wind profile. The predicted value ofB based on the assumption of asymptotically constantK is 4.5, while that based on the Nee-Kovasznay model is 5.1; these compare with the observed value of 4.7 for the Leipzig profile. A thermal wind correction, an asymptotic solution for arbitraryK(z) and 1, and an exact (unrestricted ) solution forK(z)=U _*d[1–exp(–z/d)] are developed in appendices.     

The stably stratified internal boundary layer for steady and diurnally varying offshore flow

A two-dimensional numerical mesoscale model is used to investigate the internal structure and growth of the stably stratified internal boundary layer (IBL) beneath warm, continental air flowing over a cooler sea. Two situations are studied — steady-state and diurnally varying offshore flow. In the steady-state case, vertical profiles of mean quantities and eddy diffusion coefficients (K) within the IBL show small, but significant, changes with increasing distance from the coast. The top of the IBL is well defined, with large vertical gradients within the layer and a maximum in the coast-normal wind component near the top. Well away from the coast, turbulence, identified by non-zero K, decreases to insignificant levels near the top of the IBL; the IBL itself is characterised by a critical value of the layer-flux Richardson number equal to 0.18. The overall behaviour of the mean profiles is similar to that found in the horizontally homogeneous stable boundary layer over land.A simple physical model is used to relate the depth of the layer h to several relevant physical parameters viz., x, the distance from the coast and U, the large-scale wind (both normal to the coastline) and g/, being the temperature difference between continental mixed-layer air and sea surface, is the mean potential temperature and g is the acceleration due to gravity. Excellent agreement with the numerical results is found, with h = 0.014x ^1/2 U (g/)^–1/2.In the diurnally varying case, the mean profiles within the IBL show only small differences from the steady-state case, although diurnal variations, particularly in the wind maximum, are evident within a few hundred kilometres of the coast. A mesoscale circulation normal to the coast, and superimposed upon the mean offshore flow, develops seawards of the coastline with maximum vertical velocities about sunset, of depth about 2 km and horizontal scale 500 km. The circulation is related to the advection, and subsequent decay, of daytime convective turbulence over the sea.     

A proposal of moist turbulence closure scheme,and the rationalization of Arakawa-Schubert cumulus parameterization

Summary Subgrid-scale parameterization related to moist process are discussed. In the first half of the paper, a turbulence closure scheme, including the effect of condensation, is proposed. In this parameterization, the subgrid-scale transfer is limited within a single vertical layer of a model per each time step, and the specification of condensation is of yes-or-no type. Therefore, the scheme is suited for a mesoscale circulation model.In the second half of this paper, the bounded derivative method of Kreiss (1980) is applied to the formulation of parameterizations. One example is the derivation of various hierarchial versions in turbulence closure schemes, such as Mellor and Yamada (1974). Another example is an interpretation of the key assumption in Arakawa-Schubert (1974) theory of cumulus convection, i.e., the equilibrium of cloud-work function.With 2 Figures     

Rainwater composition over a rural area with special emphasis on the size distribution of insoluble particulate matter

The rainwater composition in the vicinity of Mainz, FRG, has been investigated with special emphasis on insoluble constituents. The number size distribution was determined in the range from 0.1 m up to 100 m radius. For particles with r>0.5 m radius the shape of the size distribution of insoluble particles in rain follows the shape of the average urban and rural aerosol. In this particular size range no major size selective removal processes could be seen. For r<0.5 m the number size distribution tends to flatten compared to the average aerosol. This might be the indication of a size selective removal process (Greenfield Gap).     

Flux-profile Relationships for Wind Speed and Temperature in the Stable Atmospheric Boundary Layer

Wind and temperature profiles in the stable boundary layer were analyzed in the context of MoninObukhov similarity. The measurements were made on a 60-m tower in Kansas during October 1999 (CASES-99). Fluxprofile relationships, obtained from these measurements in their integral forms, were established for wind speed and temperature. Use of the integral forms eliminates the uncertainty and accuracy issues resulting from gradient computations. The corresponding stability functions, which were nearly the same for momentum and virtual sensible heat, were found to exhibit different features under weakly stable conditions compared to those under strongly stable conditions. The gradient stability functions were found to be linear, namely _m = 1+ 5.8 and _h = 1 + 5.4 up to a limit of the MoninObukhov stability parameter = 0.8; this is consistent with earlier findings. However, for stronger stabilities beyond a transition range, both functions were observed gradually to approach a constant, with a value of approximately 7. To link these two distinct regimes, a general but pliable functional form with only two parameters is proposed for the stability functions, covering the entire stability range from neutral to very stable conditions.     

A comparative study of the performance of various vertical discretization schemes

Summary Most finite-difference numerical weather prediction models employ vertical discretizations that are staggered, and are low-order (usually second-order) approximations for the important terms such as the derivation of the geopotential from the hydrostatic equation, and the calculation of the vertically integrated divergence. In a sigma-coordinate model the latter is used for computing both the surface pressure change and the vertical velocity. All of the above-mentioned variables can diminish the accuracy of the forecast if they are not calculated accurately, and can have an impact on related quantities such as precipitation.In this study various discretization schemes in the vertical are compared both in theory and in practice. Four different vertical grids are tested: one unstaggered and three staggered (including the widely-used Lorenz grid). The comparison is carried out by assessing the accuracy of the grids using vertical numerics that range from second-order up to sixth-order.The theoretical part of the study examines how faithfully each vertical grid reproduces the vertical modes of the governing equations linearized with a basic state atmosphere. The performance of the grids is evaluated for 2nd, 4th and 6th-order numerical schemes based on Lagrange polynomials, and for a 6th-ordercompact scheme.Our interpretation of the results of the theoretical study is as follows. The most important result is that the order of accuracy employed in the numerics seems to be more significant than the choice of vertical grid. There are differences between the grids at second-order, but these differences effectively vanish as the order of accuracy increases. The sixth-order schemes all produce very accurate results with the grids performing equally well, and with the compact scheme significantly outperforming the Lagrange scheme. A second major result is that for the number of levels typically used in current operational forecast models, second-order schemes (which are used almost universally) all appear to be relatively poor, for other than the lowest modes.The theoretical claims were confirmed in practice using a large number (100) of forecasts with the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre's operational model. By comparing test model forecasts using the four grids and the different orders of numerics with very high resolution control model forecasts, the results of the theoretical study seem to be corroborated.With 8 Figures