Effects of solar activity on myocardial infarction deaths in low geomagnetic latitude regions

We study the effect of solar activity on the incidence of myocardial infarction deaths (MID) in Mexico. We work with 129,917 cases along 1996–1999, grouping the data by sex and age, and considering the solar cycle phases. At higher frequencies the circaseptan is the most persistent periodicity in MID occurrence. During solar minimum the circaseptan period is not detectable compared with solar maximum. During Forbush decreases and geomagnetic activity, most cases present a higher average MID occurrence. Furthermore the MID rate is higher as the level of the geomagnetic perturbation increases. Male MID rates are in general higher than female rates and the difference increases as the geomagnetic perturbation increases. The age group with the lowest MID incidence is 25 to 44 years, the age group of 65 years is the most vulnerable. We conclude that solar activity does affect MID at low geomagnetic latitudes and that the solar maximum is the most hazardous time for MID incidence.     

North-south asymmetry in response of geomagnetic activity to different solar events

Study of the response of geomagnetic activity to five different kinds of solar events reveals that an average north-south asymmetry of about 15% exists which diminishes with enhanced geomagnetic activity. The response of the geomagnetic field is quite significant only when high speed solar wind stream in association with sector boundary of interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) or solar proton streams near sector boundary sweeps past the earth. When the frequency of occurrence of indices of geomagnetic activity is considered, the index zero shows a marked difference in its response characteristics for the southern hemisphere. This appears to be a real feature and not attributable to any artefact of the index or its derivation.     

Variations in solar and geomagnetic activity with periods near to 1.3 year

It is known that solar wind velocity fluctuates regularly with a period of about 1.3 years. This periodicity (and other signals with periods near to 1.1 and 0.9 years) has also been observed in biological data. The variation is a temporary feature, mostly being observed in the early 1990s. Here, the occurrence of these periodic signals in solar and geomagnetic activity between 1932 and 2005 has been investigated. The signal with 1.3 year period is present in geomagnetic activity only in a short interval after 1990 and to a lesser extent around 1942. At other times the signal is very weak or not present at all. Other periods are much lower amplitude and appear only sporadically throughout the time investigated. A connection between these periods and solar cycles (e.g. different even or odd cycles) has not been proven. It is possible that there is a long-term periodicity in the occurrence of the 1.3 year period but the time series data available is insufficient to confirm this. There are no such periodicities in solar activity. In order to gain a greater understanding of these periodic signals, we should search for their origin in interplanetary space.     

Variations in the strength of recurrent geomagnetic activity in solar cycles 11 to 21

From maximum entropy spectral analysis (MESA) of short lengths ofAa indices of geomagnetic activity, the characteristics of the strength of the 27-day and 13.5-day signals for each of the solar cycles 11 to 21 are highlighted. It is shown that the 13.5-day signal is a near permanent feature in geomagnetic activity. The Hale-cycle (22 yr) effect could be seen in the average magnitude of the 27-day signal with greater strengths in the even cycles. No clear annual variation in the strength is noticed, contrary to some earlier known results.     

Solar and geomagnetic activity effects on heart rate variability

Investigation into possible space weather hazards on cardiovascular system has been performed. A group of 14 healthy volunteers was examined in the spring of 2009 and 2 healthy persons performed electrocardiograph records for a period of 1 year everyday in the morning and in the evening. Results revealed that heart rate variability (HRV) parameters of the group varied strongly from the day before till 3 days after the registered weak storms during the time of investigation. Blood pressure and subjective psychophysiological complaints increased statistically significantly from 0 day till +2nd day. Heart rate (HR) of the group showed a trend for decrease. It was established that morning measurements were more sensitive to space weather variations in comparison with evening measurements. Both persons with prolonged registrations for a period of year did not reveal graded response to geomagnetic storms with different intensities. Both of them decreased HR during moderate storms, but they increased HR during major storms and on the days before and after these storms. HRV parameters varied significantly on these days.     

Worldwide features of the strength of recurrent geomagnetic activity

Variation of the strength of recurrent geomagnetic activity, which occurs just before a sunspot minimum, with local time is studied for a network of observatories covering different latitude and longitude zones. For this purpose, hourly averages of horizontal intensity(H) for each UT hour for 173 days, which are totally free of disturbances due to solar transients, have been subjected to spectral analysis. Well-defined spectral peaks associated with periodicities of 28, 14 and 9 days were present in almost all the spectra. The pattern of daily variation of the strength of the 27-day signal changes from a diurnal one at low latitudes to a semi-diurnal one near the Sq focus and in this region, the 14-day signal appears to have an independent origin irrespective of the longitude zone. A study of 27-day oscillation in mean dailyH field also indicates that apart from ring current modulation, both Sq and electrojet fields also undergo 27-day oscillations during the declining phase of a solar cycle possibly through the ionospheric wind system.     

Long and short term relationships between solar wind velocity and geomagnetic field at low latitudes

Solar wind velocity control of low latitude geomagnetic field both on long and short term basis is studied. It is shown that semiannual averages of the low latitude field is inversely related to solar wind velocity and that there is a dominant local time dependence of the relationship. Strongest correlation are confined to the local afternoon hours. It is also shown that for a duration when the solar wind velocity exhibits significant recurrent pattern the low latitude geomagnetic field also depicts strong solar synodic rotation periodicity of 27 days with significant coherence with velocity. The low latitude field on a short term basis is influenced by variable solar wind velocity with a delay of about 1–2 days. During the period of systematic recurrent pattern in solar wind velocity even the quiet-time night field at equatorial and low latitudes show a strong dependence on velocity indicative of the solar wind control of the quiet-time proton belt encompassing the earth.     

Magnetic-field variations and solar flare activity

Solar filtergrams obtained at the Crimean Astrophysical Observatory at the center and wings of the H?? line are used to study variations in filaments, in particular, in arch filament systems (AFSs). These are considered as an indicator of emerging new magnetic flux, providing information about the spatial locations of magnetic-field elements. Magnetic-field maps for the active region NOAA 10030 are analyzed as an example. A method developed earlier for detecting elements of emerging flux using SOHO/MDI magnetograms indicates a close link between the increase in flare activity in theNOAA 10030 group during July 14?C18, 2002 and variations in the topological disconnectedness of the magnetograms. Moreover, variations in the flare activity one day before a flare event are correlated with variations in the topological complexity of the field (the Euler characteristic) in regions with high field strengths (more than 700 G). Analysis of multi-wavelength polarization observations on the RATAN-600 radio telescope during July 13?C17, 2002 indicate dominance of the radio emission above the central spot associated with the increase in flare activity. In addition to the flare site near the large spot in the group, numerous weak flares developed along an extended local neutral line, far from the central line of the large-scale field. The statistical characteristics of the magnetic-field maps analyzed were determined, and show flare activity of both types, i.e., localized in spot penumbras and above the neutral line of the field.     

Deep earth electrical conductivity-depth profiles around African geomagnetic equator using solar quiet currents

Electrical conductivity structure of the Earth’s deep interior has been successfully mapped out down to approximately 1500 km around the geomagnetic dip equatorial regions of Africa using solar quiet-day ionospheric currents. Spherical harmonic analysis (SHA) was employed in separating the internal and external field contributions to the solar quiet variations. Transfer function was used for each of the external and internal pairs to compute the conductivity-depth profile for the region. Calculated average electrical conductivity values were evidently higher than obtained in other parts of the world farther away from the geomagnetic equator. Sq current vortex foci are observed very close to the geomagnetic equator. Depth of penetration was greatly enhanced. Stations on latitudes less than 1° from the geomagnetic equator show higher electrical conductivity when compared with that situated more than 4° away from it at various corresponding depths. Evidence of discontinuities in the earth layers were also noted at some depths. Highly conductive layers were delineated around 400 km depth and beyond 1200 km.     

Daily variation of geomagnetic field at low latitudes associated with stable solar wind flow

Mean diurnal variation ofH at low and equatorial latitudes is computed for days in the vicinity of passage of ‘quiet’ solar wind. It is shown that the prepassage magnitude of the diurnal variation is appreciably larger when compared to post-passage intervals at low latitudes but the difference vanishes in the electrojet region. It is suggested that the Sq current system moves towards dip equator immediately following quiet wind conditions relative to earlier periods. It is also shown that during conditions of stable solar wind, the solar wind proton density is inversely related to the electrojet strength, while at low latitudes outside the jet influence, there is no clear association.     

The association between solar particle events, geomagnetic storms, and hospital admissions for myocardial infarction

Eruptive activity of the Sun produces intensive fluxes of energetic particles and disturbances in geomagnetic field. It has been found that solar and geomagnetic activities affect the cardiovascular system. In this study, we investigated whether solar particle events (SPE) and geomagnetic storms (GS) affect risk of emergency hospitalization for first-time myocardial infarction (MI). The effect of environmental variables is analyzed separately for MI with and without elevation of ST segment in electrocardiogram. A case-crossover study design was used to analyze MI in 2,008 hospitalized patients at the Hospital of Kaunas University of Medicine, Lithuania, from January 1, 2004 to December 31, 2005. We evaluated the associations between SPE, GS, and daily number of emergency hospital admission for MI by Poisson regression, controlling for seasonal variation, weekdays, and meteorological factors. During days of SPE in conjunction with GS, the risk of hospital admissions for MI with ST elevation increased by 39?% (RR?=?1.39; 95?% CI 1.02?C1.91). Two days after SPE that going till GS, the risk of admission for MI without ST elevation increased by 54?% (RR?=?1.54; 95?% CI 1.05?C2.24). The major GS without increased proton flux with particle energies?>10?MeV does not increase the risk of admission for MI without ST elevation. Only GS occurred after SPE increased the risk of admission for MI without ST elevation. These findings suggest that SPE going till GS or SPE in conjunction with GS affect on cardiovascular system. The environmental factors have different effects on the risk of myocardial infarction with and without ST elevation.     

The nitrate content of Greenland ice and solar activity

Past solar activity is studied based on analysis of data on the nitrate content of Greenland ice in the period from 1576–1991. Hundred-year (over the entire period) and quasi-five-year (in the middle of the 18th century) variations in the nitrate content are detected. These reflect the secular solar-activity cycle and cyclicity in the flare activity of the Sun.     

太阳活动对年代际-亚轨道尺度气候变化的驱动机制探讨

近年来有关太阳活动的研究被越来越多的学者所关注,从冰芯、石笋、树轮以及湖相沉积物中提取的高分辨率古气候替代指标数据序列中都发现存在着年际-百年甚至千年尺度的变化周期,这些不同时间尺度的气候变化周期信号与不同时间尺度的太阳活动周期的信号存在着某种关联性,但是其具体的物理驱动机制仍然是一个未解之谜。本研究利用实际观测的和重建的太阳黑子数据序列以及反映不同季风和降水强度的美国加州白山山脉狐尾松（Pinus longaeva）树轮的碳同位素数据和南美洲巴西Pau d'Alho洞及中国贵州董哥洞石笋的氧同位素数据序列,通过频谱分析、小波变换的交叉谱和相干谱分析以及振幅调制等方法,发现石笋和树轮中记录的气候变化的周期信号与太阳活动的年际-千年尺度的周期存在着明显的相关性,这些气候指标中记录的这些周期信号与太阳活动周期之间具有1/4个到3/4个周期的滞后,据此推断地球表层气候系统在年代际-千年尺度的变化受到了太阳活动周期的驱动。并且发现约88 a的周期是约11 a太阳黑子活动周期的振幅调制周期信号,而约500 a、1000 a和2000 a的气候变化信号是太阳活动周期约88 a和210 a振幅变化的调制周期信号,从而推断地球的气候不但受到像偏心率调控岁差周期这样的驱动机制,可能同时还受到约88 a周期调制约11 a太阳活动周期振幅的变化,以及约500 a调制约88 a周期振幅的变化,约1000 a和2000 a周期调制210 a周期振幅的变化等驱动。目前地球正处于88 a周期变化的振幅低值时期,未来几年地球可能存在着变冷的趋势,结合偏心率长周期的变化趋势,本研究为预测未来地球气候变化的短期和长期趋势提供了重要的科学依据。

     

The large-scale solar magnetic field and 11-year activity cycles

Magnetic Hα synoptic maps of the Sun for 1915–1999 are analyzed and the intensities of spherical harmonics of the large-scale solar magnetic field computed. The possibility of using these Hα maps as a database for investigations of long-term variations of solar activity is demonstrated. As an example, the magnetic-field polarity distribution for the Hα maps and the analogous polarity distribution for the magnetographic maps of the Stanford observatory for 1975–1999 are compared. An activity index A(t) is introduced for the large-scale magnetic field, which is the sum of the magnetic-moment intensities for the dipole and octupole components. The 11-year cycle of the large-scale solar magnetic field leads the 11-year sunspot cycle by, on average, 5.5 years. It is concluded that the observed weak large-scale solar magnetic field is not the product of the decay of strong active-region fields. Based on the new data, the level of the current (23rd) solar-activity cycle and some aspects of solar-cycle theory are discussed.     

146-day signal in the geomagnetic field—a probable association with the periodicity of the solar flare index

Results on the spectral analysis using geomagnetic field at three low latitude stations and the planetary magnetic activity index have shown peaks in the power densities in a broad band centred around 146-day period. This periodic behaviour appears to be close to that shown by the solar flare activity index for the same interval. It is suggested that the geoeffectiveness of the flare activity signal in different phases of the solar cycle can be better worked out using long series of ground-based geomagnetic data.     

准双世纪和Hallstatt气候变化周期对太阳轨道运动调控太阳活动的响应

气候变化准200 a和准2400 a周期被认为是对太阳活动的响应周期,但机制尚不清楚。基于太阳质心坐标系发现,行星会合指数K具有20 a、179~180 a和准2400 a周期。根据修正系数（q=1.11518）,在太阳系质心坐标系下标定了太阳轨道运动最基本的特征周期是准22.20 a。研究发现,K指数标定的太阳到太阳系质心距离变化的极值与太阳黑子磁场极性指数（MI）的极值之间具有高度的相关性（r_KMI=0.952）。通过对比发现,树轮宽度变化和树轮、珊瑚中¹⁴C含量变化的准双世纪和Hallstatt周期与通过修正后的K指数图像准179~200 a和准2300~2600 a周期不但长度近似相等,而且相位也基本吻合。K指数极大值越大表明太阳具有的势能越大。K指数极大值中较小者表明太阳这一时段所具有的势能相对较小,故太阳向行星际空间释放的能量也相对减少,因此对银河宇宙射线的干扰减小,从而使进入大气中的银河宇宙射线和能量粒子的沉降增加,致使¹⁴C含量增大。通过对¹⁴C含量变化周期与K指数周期在相位对应关系上具有一致性的印证,表明这两种气候变化周期与K指数极大值周期具有正相关对应关系,这对探讨气候变化对太阳活动的响应机制具有重要意义。

     

基于非局部化方法的边坡稳定性分析

应变局部化问题已经成为岩土力学研究的一个重要课题,边坡的稳定性分析必然要考虑这种应变局部化对边坡的稳定性影响。结合Bazant等的非局部化模型方法,将其推广应用到弹黏塑性本构模型中去,考虑两种正则化机制的耦合作用,并采用有限元方法结合滑面应力法对边坡的稳定性进行分析。将数值分析结果与极限平衡法和基于线弹性本构的滑面应力法结果进行了对比,从分析结果来看文中的计算结果是合理的,对实际工程具有一定的指导意义。     

太阳黑子和ENSO对日本吉野川流域水文要素影响

剖析"太阳-气候-水资源"体系作用机制对区域水资源科学管理具有重要科学意义。利用相关分析、主成分分析和小波分析方法,探究太阳黑子运动和厄尔尼诺（ENSO）对日本吉野川流域降雨、地表径流和地下水位影响。研究结果表明:太阳黑子活动和ENSO对研究区域水文过程显著影响分别发生在11 a和2~7 a周期上;太阳黑子运动能量以ENSO为"媒介"作用于流域降水和河川径流,但对地下水位波动影响不明显;太阳黑子活动在不同时频域对研究区域水文过程产生"直接"和"间接"影响,太阳黑子的"直接"影响可能通过调制ENSO外的气候模态来实现,其"间接"作用则通过"ENSO-西太平洋副高-东亚环流-水汽运动"系统作用实现。