Long-term morphological river response to hydrological changes

Hydrologic changes have a great impact on the long-term river morphology. The most common anthropic cause is the construction of dams, which often reduces both the discharge regime and sediment transport, producing a narrowing and degradation of the river bed. In this study we propose a simple, lumped morphodynamic model that describes fluvial cross-section dynamics consequent to changes in discharge and sediment transport induced by external factors. The model provides the temporal dynamics of the river width and bed quote. These dynamics result not to be trivial and can exhibit non monotonic behavior, with aggradations and degradations, and narrowing and widening. The model has been tested on real rivers using data obtained from field studies. The agreement between the outcomes and the data measured in the field works is always satisfactory.     

Implication of environmental flows in river basin management

Consideration of environmental flows in river basin management poses great challenges. Environmental flows are interpreted as the natural or regulated releases of water needed in a river to maintain specified valued features of the river ecosystems. This has never been considered explicitly in water resources management of a river basin. An attempt is, therefore, made here to reflect the perception and implications of environmental flows in water resources management. Assessment approaches are reviewed in the context of flow characteristics of a river system and recommendations are put forward on what is to be done to adopt this new concept in practice.     

Sensitivity of the river Rhine discharge to environmental change,a first tentative assessment

Changes in climatic conditions may have great impact on the distribution of available water in space and time. However the results of models that describe future climate conditions are still insufficient to be used in regional hydrological simulation studies. This article describes a first tentative estimation of the sensitivity of discharge of the river Rhine to two environmental changes. Firstly, to a change in snow covered area due to a rise of 4°C in winter temperature in the upland part (Alps) of the drainage area and, secondly, to a large land use change in the lowland area (Federal Republic of Germany/France). ‘Worst case’ scenarios for discharge of the river Rhine under warmer conditions give a reduction of 10 percent for the summer discharge at Rees (Dutch/German border). The results of the estimations indicate that the reduction of the summer discharge in a warmer world could be larger.     

Relative effects of human activities and climate change on the river runoff in an arid basin in northwest China

Understanding the mechanisms of river runoff variation is important for the effective management of water resources in arid and semi‐arid regions. This study uses long‐term observational data as a basis for examining the effects of human activities and climate change on the runoff variation of Jinghe River Basin, a typical arid inland basin in northwest China. A distributed hydrological model called the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, combined with a sequential cluster method and a separation approach, was used to quantify and distinguish the effects of human activities and climate change on runoff. The hydrological sequence before 1981 can be considered natural. However, human activities have significantly affected runoff since 1981. The runoff reduction caused by human activities between 1981 and 2008 accounted for 85.7% of the total reduction in the downstream of Jinghe River, whereas that caused by climatic variation was only 14.3%. This observation suggests that human activities are the major driver of runoff variation in the basin. Although the role of climate change in driving runoff variation has been identified to be prevalent and dominant in arid regions, this study highlights the importance of human activities. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Run-off affected by climate and anthropogenic changes in a large semi-arid river basin

A rapid reduction in run-off has been observed in the middle reaches of the Yellow River basin in recent decades. Understanding the contributions of climate change and human activities, such as vegetation restoration and water consumption, to surface water resource reduction has become urgent and very important for future regional planning. Here, we use attribution approaches to explore the effects of climate change and human activities on run-off over the past six decades. The results showed that the observed annual run-off at Tongguan station, which is located within the mainstream of the Yellow River, exhibited a significant decreasing trend of −0.69 mm year⁻¹ (p < .01) and varied from −0.28 to −1.46 mm year⁻¹ (p < .01) in the eight selected tributaries from 1960 to 2015. Two relatively abrupt changes in the double mass curves occurred around 1979 and 1999; compared with Period 1 (P1; 1960–1979), the average catchment run-off decreased 32% during Period 2 (P2; 1980–1999) and up to 49% during Period 3 (P3; 2000–2015). We calculated that approximately 29% of the reduction in the run-off during P2 and 18% during P3 were attributed to climate change. Increased surface water consumption resulted in effective run-off reduction, with relative contributions of approximately 27% and 28% during P2 and P3, respectively. With the implementation of the “Grain-for-Green” project, the vegetation coverage rapidly increased from 36% in P1 to 52% in P3 and reduced run-off by 35% during P3. These findings explain the run-off reduction and benefit water resource management in the middle reaches of the Yellow River basin.     

The impact of climate change and human activities on streamflow and sediment load in the Pearl River basin

This paper uses monthly streamflow, suspended sediment concentration, and meteorological data to examine the impact of human activity and climate change on streamflow and sediment load in the Pearl River basin from the 1950s to the 2000s. The influences of climate change and human activities on hydrological processes were quantitatively evaluated using the Mann–Kendall abrupt change test and power rating curves. The results showed that:(1) abrupt changes and turning points in streamflow occurred in 1963, 1983, and 1991 which were found to be consistent with global ENSO events and volcanic eruptions. However, abrupt changes in sediment load showed significant spatial differences across the Pearl River basin. For the Xijiang River, an abrupt change in sediment load occurred in 2002, and after 2007 the change becomes significant at the 95% confidence level. At Beijiang and Dongjiang, abrupt changes in sediment load occurred in 1998 and 1988, respectively.(2) The time series of sediment load data was divided into four periods according to abrupt changes. The contribution of climate change and human activities is different in the different rivers. For the Xijiang River, compared with the first period, climate change and human activities contributed 83% and 17%, respectively, to the increasing sediment load during the second period. In the third period, the variation of sediment load followed a decreasing trend. The contribution from climate change and human activities also changed to t236% and -136%, respectively. In the fourth period, climate change and human activities contributed -32% and t132%, respectively. Meanwhile, For the Beijiang River, climate change and human activities contributed 90% and 10% in the second period, the contribution of climate change increased to t115% and human activities decreased to -15% in the third period. In the fourth period, the value for climate change decreased to t36% and human activities increased to t64%. For the Dongjiang River, the contribution of human activities was from 74.5% to 90%, and the values for climate change were from 11% to 25%. Therefore, the effect of human activity showed both spatial and temporal differences, and it seems likely that the decreased sediment load will continue to be controlled mainly by human activities in the future.     

Quantitative assessment of the impact of climate variability and human activities on runoff changes: a case study in four catchments of the Haihe River basin,China

Quantitative evaluation of the effect of climate variability and human activities on runoff is of great importance for water resources planning and management in terms of maintaining the ecosystem integrity and sustaining the society development. In this paper, hydro‐climatic data from four catchments (i.e. Luanhe River catchment, Chaohe River catchment, Hutuo River catchment and Zhanghe River catchment) in the Haihe River basin from 1957 to 2000 were used to quantitatively attribute the hydrological response (i.e. runoff) to climate change and human activities separately. To separate the attributes, the temporal trends of annual precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET) and runoff during 1957–2000 were first explored by the Mann–Kendall test. Despite that only Hutuo River catchment was dominated by a significant negative trend in annual precipitation, all four catchments presented significant negative trend in annual runoff varying from ?0.859 (Chaohe River) to ?1.996 mm a^?1 (Zhanghe River). Change points in 1977 and 1979 are detected by precipitation–runoff double cumulative curves method and Pettitt's test for Zhanghe River and the other three rivers, respectively, and are adopted to divide data set into two study periods as the pre‐change period and post‐change period. Three methods including hydrological model method, hydrological sensitivity analysis method and climate elasticity method were calibrated with the hydro‐climatic data during the pre‐change period. Then, hydrological runoff response to climate variability and human activities was quantitatively evaluated with the help of the three methods and based on the assumption that climate and human activities are the only drivers for streamflow and are independent of each other. Similar estimates of anthropogenic and climatic effects on runoff for catchments considered can be obtained from the three methods. We found that human activities were the main driving factors for the decline in annual runoff in Luanhe River catchment, Chaohe River catchment and Zhanghe River catchment, accounting for over 50% of runoff reduction. However, climate variability should be responsible for the decrease in annual runoff in the Hutuo River catchment. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

变化环境下珠江流域洪水频率变化特征、成因及影响(1951-2010年)

气候变化和人类活动导致珠江流域水文变化,变化前后洪水频率分布显著不同.运用滑动秩和(Mann-Whitney U test)结合Brown-Forsythe、滑动T、有序聚类和Mann-Kendall检验法,并用累积距平曲线法获取年最大流量序列详细信息,综合确定样本最佳变化节点,并对水文变化成因做了系统分析.在此基础上,对整体序列、变化前后序列用线性矩法推求广义极值分布参数以及不同重现期设计流量.结果表明:(1)西江大部以及北江流域最佳变化节点在1991年左右;东江流域最佳变化节点与该流域内3大控制性水库建成时间基本吻合;(2)变化后,西江、北江年最大流量持续增加,洪峰强度增大,尤其是西江干流年最大流量显著增加;东江流域年最大流量显著减小,洪峰强度降低;(3)变化后,西江与北江洪水风险增加,尤其是下游珠三角地区本身受人类活动显著影响,加之西江与北江持续增加的洪水强度,珠三角地区发生洪水的强度及频次加剧,而东江洪水风险减小.此研究对于珠江流域在变化环境下的洪水风险评估与防洪抗灾具有重要意义.     

Temporal variation of suspended sediment load in the Pearl River due to human activities

Data on sediment flux at three hydrologic stations from the 1950s to 2006 are utilized to study the decadal,annual,and monthly variations in suspended sediment load delivered from the Pearl River to the ocean.Results show that variations in sediment flux from three main tributaries,including the West River,the North River and the East River,are spatially non-uniform.Since nearly 90%of the suspended sediment load comes from the West River,its variation has dominated the overall tendency of sediment flux in the entire Pearl River.Although a significant decreasing trend exists in the annual variation of the total sediment flux,the decadal change can be divided into an increasing phase and a decreasing phase,with the turning point between the two phases in the late 1980s.From the 1950s to the 1980s,the average annual river sediment flux increased by 30.43%.However,sediment flux has decreased significantly since the 1990s,with the average sediment flux being 38.60%less in the 2000s than that in the 1950s.The current sediment flux is also 52.93%less than its peak in the 1980s. The monthly variation pattern of the suspended sediment load transport to the sea is more interesting. For the West River,all months show a decreasing trend,and for most months the reduction values are significant.However,for the East River the sediment load shows a decrease trend in the dry season and an increase trend in the wet season.The method of regression analysis was used to study the influence of precipitation in the variation on the sediment flux.It was found that the climate change is not the main driving force behind the variation in suspended sediment load.Before the 1990s, intensive land use destroyed the vulnerable ecosystem of the upper Pearl River,and speeded up the process of rocky desertification.Consequently,aggravated soil erosion caused an increase in suspended sediment load.However,sediment retention within reservoirs had begun to play a dominant role after the massive construction of large dams after 1990,and resulted in a decrease in the suspended sediment load delivered to the ocean.     

Sediment dynamics and temporal variation of runoff in the Yom River,Thailand

The Yom River is one of the four major sediment sources to the Chao Phraya River in Thailand. Human activities and changes in climate over the past six decades may have affected the discharge and sediment load to some extent. In the current study, the river discharge and sediment characteristics in the mainstream of the Yom River were investigated using the field observation data from 2011 to 2013 and the historical river flow and sediment data from 1954 to 2014 at six hydrological stations operated by the Royal Irrigation Department of Thailand (RID). The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and double mass curve were used to analyze the sediment dynamics and temporal changes in the discharge of the Yom River. The results revealed that the sediment was mainly transported in suspension, and the bed-to-suspended sediment loads ratio varied between 0 and 0.05. The daily suspended sediment load (SSL) in the upper and middle basins had a strong correlation with the daily discharge and could be represented by power equations with coefficients of determination higher than 0.8. The daily suspended sediment load in the lower basin did not directly depend on the corresponding discharge because of the reduction in river slope and water diversion by irrigation projects. It also appeared that the river discharges and sediment loads were mainly influenced by climate variation (floods and droughts). Moreover, the average sediment transport of the upper, middle, and lower reaches were 0.57, 0.71, and 0.35 million t/y, respectively. The sediment load in the lower basin decreased more than 50% as a result of changes in the river gradient (from mountainous to floodplain areas). The results from sediment analysis also indicated that the construction of the Mae Yom Barrage, the longest diversion dam in Thailand, and land-use changes did not significantly affect the sediment load along the Yom River.     

A multimetric index for assessment of aquatic ecosystem health based on macroinvertebrates for the Zio river basin in Togo

The use of multimetric indices as tools for assessing aquatic ecosystem health in most of the developing countries such as Togo is still lacking. To fill this gap, we developed a macroinvertebrates-based multimetric index for the Zio river basin of Togo. Forty-two sites were assessed for the development and the validation of the Multimetric Index of Zio River Basin (MMIZB). Thirty-nine candidate metrics belonging to four categories (composition metrics, functional feeding metrics, diversity metrics and tolerance measure metrics) were evaluated. After comprehensive multiple selection procedure, six core metrics were retained to provide the final MMIZB. The results showed that the MMIZB responded to a set of organic pollution (chemical oxygen demand, ammonium, total suspended solid) and hydromorphological alterations, which corresponded to a set of gradients of human pressures affecting the ecological integrity of Zio river basin water bodies (r = 0.78, p < 0.001). The final macroinvertebrate index well distinguished the reference sites and impaired sites of a validation data set (p < 0.001) and showed a significant relationship between water and habitat quality based on Prati’s index (r = 0.73, p < 0.001) and Multimetric Macroinvertebrates Index of Vietnam (MMI_Vietnam) (r = 0.88, p < 0.001). This work underlines the relevance of the MMIZB as an effective tool for biological monitoring and decision making in water management of Zio river basin.     

Variability of phytoplankton biomass in a lowland river: Response to climate conditions

The results are presented of an intensive study of phytoplankton assemblage carried out in the Berounka River above its confluence with the Vltava River (Czech Republic) in the period 2002–2007. The annual and interannual changes of phytoplankton development (based on high frequency of sampling) and their relation to hydrological conditions and concentrations of main nutrients are analysed. A marked decline of nutrient concentrations was observed during the period 1996–2007. The annual mean values of total P decreased from 0.43 mg L⁻¹ to 0.16 mg L⁻¹, those of N-NO₃ from 4.6 mg L⁻¹ to 1.5 mg L⁻¹ and N-NH₄ from 1.9 mg L⁻¹ to 0.04 mg L⁻¹. Despite this, the phytoplankton biomass remained at a high level. The seasonal mean values of chlorophyll-a ranged from 51.0 μg L⁻¹ to 116.8 μg L⁻¹ in the same time period. An obviously stronger relationship was found of the phytoplankton biomass and pattern of its development to the variation of flow rates than to the existing level of nutrient concentrations. A significantly decreasing relationship (R² = 0.384, P < 0.001) of chlorophyll-a to flow rates and a significantly increasing relationship (R² = 0.359, P < 0.001) of chlorophyll-a to water temperatures were found, based on monthly mean values for the seasonal period 2002–2007. The results obtained indicate a remarkable increase of phytoplankton biomass and its prolongated occurrence in watercourses, which can be expected due to the consequences of the predicted climate change (i.e. higher occurrence of summer droughts and low precipitation amounts accompanied by a substantial drop of flow rates, increase of air and water temperatures), as described in the respective scenarios for the territory of the Czech Republic. Simulations by the regional climate models HIRHAM and RCAO and emission scenario SRES indicated the increase of air temperature by 2.5–5 °C, decrease of precipitation amount by 6–25% and decline of flows by 14–43% in the Berounka River for the scenario period 2071–2100.     

Rapid changes of sediment dynamic processes in Yalu River Estuary under anthropogenic impacts

The response of the Yalu River Estuary to human activities was investigated.Changes of sediment dynamics during the past 10 years were explored through hydrodynamic calculation,as well as heavy mineral...     

Monotonic trend and abrupt changes for major climate variables in the headwater catchment of the Yellow River basin

On the basis of the mean air temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration and pan evaporation at 23 meteorological stations in the headwater catchment of the Yellow River basin from 1960 to 2001, the long‐term monotonic trend and abrupt changes for major climate variables have been investigated. The plausible monotonic trend of annual climatic time series are detected using a non‐parametric method. The abrupt changes have been investigated in terms of a 5 year moving averaged annual series, using the moving t‐test (MTT) method, Yamamoto method and Mann–Kendall method. The results showed that the annual air temperature has increased by 0·80 °C in the headwater catchment of the Yellow River basin during the past 42 years. One obvious cold period and one warm period were detected. The warmest centre was located in the northern part of the basin. The long‐term trend for annual precipitation was not significant during the same period, but a dry tendency was detected. According to the Kendall slope values, the declining centre for annual precipitation was located in the eastern part and the centre of the study area. The long‐term monotonic trend for annual sunshine duration and pan evaporation were negative. The average Kendall slopes are ? 29·96 h/10 yr and ? 39·63 mm/10 yr, respectively. The tests for abrupt changes using MTT and Yamamoto methods show similar results. Abrupt changes occurred in the mid 1980s for temperature, in the late 1980s for precipitation and in the early 1980s for sunshine duration and pan evaporation. It can be seen that the abrupt changes really happened in the 1980s for the climate variables. Different results are shown using the Mann–Kendall method. Both the abrupt changes of temperature and precipitation took place in the early 1990s, and that of pan evaporation occurred in the 1960s. The only abrupt change in sunshine duration happened during the similar period (in the 1980s) with the results detected by the MTT and Yamamoto methods. The abrupt changes which occurred in the 1990s and 1960s are not detectable using the MTT and Yamamoto methods because of the data limitation. However, the results tested by the MTT and Yamamoto methods exhibited great consistency. Some of the reasons may be due to the similar principles for these two methods. Different methods testing the abrupt climatic changes have their own merits and limitations and should be compared based on their own assumption and applicable conditions when they are used. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Flow prediction in high altitude ungauged catchments: A case study in the Italian Alps (Pantano Basin,Adamello Group)

We develop a simple model to evaluate the daily flow discharges in the ablation season for the 11 km² Pantano basin in the Retiche Italian Alps, based upon the data gathered during a three years field campaign. The Pantano basin embeds the Venerocolo debris covered and the Avio debris free glaciers, covering 2.14 km² in the Adamello Group, where the widest Italian glacier Adamello is located. First, degree-day models based upon air temperature are tuned to calculate snow and ice melt at daily scale. Glaciers’ meteorological data are collected from an automatic weather station (AWS), operating on the glacier during summer 2007. The melt factors in the debris covered areas of the glacier are estimated against debris thickness, using a data driven parameterization. The flow discharge from the catchment is estimated using semi distributed flow routing for the ablation seasons of four years, from 2006 to 2009. The predicted discharges are compared to those derived from inverse reservoir's routing at the Benedetto lake, catching the basin outflow. The proposed approach is valuable as a tool to investigate the hydrology of poorly gauged glacierized areas, including those with debris covered ice, widely diffused and yet poorly understood. Pending accurate parameterization the approach is usable for water resources evaluation and for long term assessment of the climate change impact on the glacierized areas within the Alps.     

Empty native and invasive bivalve shells as benthic habitat modifiers in a large river

Bivalves are remarkable ecosystem engineers and their long-lasting shells may provide important physical structures for benthic organisms. In the last decades the Danube River has experienced great changes in the bivalve fauna, i.e. several native species have been declining and several invasive species have been introduced. The invasive Corbicula fluminea and Sinanodonta woodiana are now widespread and produce large amounts of shells. In this study, we investigated empty shells of native (Anodonta anatina, Unio tumidus) and invasive (C. fluminea, S. woodiana) bivalves (including their mixtures) as benthic substrates and compared them to clay granules (control), which mimics the natural hard substrates in the Danube River (Hungary). Macroinvertebrate colonization was compared between (i) empty shells and control substrate; (ii) different bivalve species (native and invasive) and (iii) three scenarios (before invasion, and short and long time after invasion) by using a mix of empty shells (native, native plus invasive, and invasive species). In comparison to control treatments the empty shells facilitated the presence of amphipods, caddis larvae and isopods, which contributed to a shift in the trophic structure by decreasing the proportion of gathering collectors while increasing the presence of shredders and predators. Several shell traits such as size, outer-shell surface roughness, hardness, thickness, 3D shape and chemical composition may be important attributes in the habitat modifying effects; however, this study could not disentangle which contribute most for the differences found. Given the capability of invasive C. fluminea and S. woodiana to accumulate large amounts of empty shells on several sites of the Danube, its habitat modifying effects can be particularly important, especially on the macroinvertebrate community structure. Moreover, these effects may increase in near future due to the predicted more frequent and severe extreme climatic conditions, which have been responsible for massive mortalities in both species.     

Shift trend and step changes for runoff time series in the Shiyang River basin,northwest China

Shift trend and step changes were detected for runoff time series in the Shiyang River basin, one of the inland river basins in north‐west China. Annual runoff data from eight tributaries as well as both annual and monthly runoff from the mainstream from 1958 to 2003 were used. Seven statistical test methods were employed to identify the shift trends and step changes in the study. Mann–Kendall test, Spearman's Rho test, linear regression and Hurst exponent were used to detect past and future shift trends for runoff time series, while the distributed‐free CUSUM test, cumulative deviations and the Worsley likelihood ratio test were used to detect step changes for the same time series. Results showed that the annual runoff from Zamu, Huangyang and Gulang rivers, as well as both annual and monthly runoff from the mainstream, show statistically significant decreasing trends. Future tendency of runoff for both tributaries and mainstream were consistent with that from 1958 to 2003. Step changes probably occurred in 1961 for the runoff from Huangyang, Gulang and Dajing rivers according to the Worsley likelihood ratio test, but no similar results were found using the other two test methods. Three change points (1979, 1974 and 1973) were detected for the mainstream using different methods. These change points were close to the years that reservoirs started to be operated. Both climate change and human activities, especially the latter, contributed to the decreasing runoff in the study area. Between 21% and 79% of the reduction in runoff from the mainstream was due to the impact of human activities during the past few decades. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Runoff modifications due to the conversion of natural grasslands to forests in a large basin in Uruguay

Uruguay has encouraged the development of the forestry sector since 1989. As a member of the Montreal Process, the country has followed a set of criteria and indicators for the Sustainable Forest Management. The aim of this paper is to describe the studies carried out in a large basin of 2097 km², located in an area of humid subtropical climate and 1300 mm of long‐term mean annual rainfall, where the conversion of natural grasslands to forests increased up to 540 km² during the last 15 years. Using data from daily rainfall and streamflow, the study analyses the effects of afforestation on the runoff and water loss. The analysis comprises hydrographs resulting from comparable rainfall events and annual and seasonal streamflow and water loss behaviour, both before afforestation (1975–1993) and during the afforestation period (1994–2008). A statistically significant reduction of runoff volumes (33–43%) and peak flows (59–65%) were identified on storm hydrographs. The annual and seasonal streamflow also showed diminishing tendencies due to the forestry development, whereas the water loss increases. The annual streamflow decreased between 8·2 and 36·5% depending on the annual rainfall totals. The streamflow reduction was higher during spring and summer (25·2–38·4%) and smaller during autumn and winter (15–20·3%). The water loss is expected to increase by 98 mm for the long‐term mean annual rainfall. The resulting information is a valuable input for the Integrated Water Resources Management of the Negro river basin located downstream, where hydroelectric power, rice irrigation and forestry development are supported. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluating precipitation products for hydrologic modeling over a large river basin in the Midwestern USA

ABSTRACT

We evaluated precipitation estimates, TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42V7), CFSR (Climate Forecast System Reanalysis), GHCN-D (Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily Version 3.24), and Daymet, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The suitability and quality of TRMM, CFSR and Daymet in forcing the SWAT-based hydrological model was examined by means of model calibration. A calibrated TRMM-driven model slightly overestimated streamflow, while a calibrated CFSR-driven model performed worst. The Daymet-driven model performance was as good as the GHCN-D-driven model in reproducing observations. In addition, the temperature was far less sensitive compared with precipitation in driving SWAT. TRMM 3B42V7 showed great potential in streamflow simulation. The results and findings from this study provide new insights into the suitability of precipitation products for hydrological and climate impact studies in large basins, particularly those in typical climates and physiographic settings similar to the Midwestern USA.