基于物理机制的供水管网抗震功能实时动态分析

城市供水管网是生命线工程的重要组成部分,本文在研究团队系列成果的基础之上,从供水管网的地震反应分析入手,进一步修正了供水管网的渗漏分析模型,在瞬变流分析的基础之上,实现了带有渗漏特性的供水管网实时动态功能分析,建立了适用于地震时的供水管网实时动态功能分析的物理模型。     

供水管网震后功能快速修复决策研究

突发地震灾害下,城市供水管网往往不可避免地会发生不同程度的破坏而导致城市供水功能的失效,对人们的生产生活产生了严重影响,快速对震后城市供水管网进行科学合理的功能修复,对于降低地震灾害损失具有重要意义。本文以城市供水管网为对象,针对震后管网系统功能评价及快速修复决策等问题进行了研究。在中国点式渗漏模型的基础上,采用基于破坏概率的渗漏面积计算方法,建立了考虑地震破坏随机性的管线渗漏流量计算模型;针对震后破坏管线展开了水力分析,并提出了以节点水头损失比为指标的节点服务性能失效状态量化方法;进而建立了震后管线的修复决策模型以及功能修复费用模型。研究成果可为震后功能修复工作中管线修复顺序及修复方案的优选提供科学依据,可显著提高震后应急救灾效率,实现城市供水功能的快速修复。     

城市供水管网抗震能力评价研究

供水管网是城市重要的基础设施,为了高效合理地评估现有供水管网的抗震能力,本文从结构安全性角度出发,构建了供水管网综合抗震能力评价指标体系和供水管网综合抗震能力评价模型。综合分析管道各项指标,运用主成分分析法得到指标权重并建立供水管道抗震能力模型,基于图论理论构建了供水管网基础抗震能力评价模型。从物理、社会和时间效应三个维度出发,将管网基础抗震能力通过环境评价修正系数进行修正,构建了精细化的供水管网综合抗震能力评价模型,以此表征管网的易损性,为地震灾害风险评估工作提供支持。通过对深圳市供水管网进行抗震能力评价,将结果与传统震害预测结果对比,说明了评价模型的合理性。     

沈阳市供水系统抗震功能可靠性分析

城市供水管网的抗震研究能够服务于供水管网的规划、设计和改造。以沈阳市供水管网系统为背景,介绍了一类求解大型供水网络节点及系统功能可靠度的方法。对沈阳市主干供水网络进行了抗震功能可靠性分析。研究结果证明,建议方法是合理评价供水管网地震后工作性能的工具,可以为大型供水管网的抗震可靠度分析及抗震设计服务提供基础。     

基于管线三态破坏的震后管网水力模拟方法

传统震后供水管网水力模拟中,每根管线上都设置虚拟渗漏点并以管线的平均渗漏程度设置渗漏点参数。显然这样会大大增加管网拓扑结构的复杂程度,且没有考虑实际地震中管线的爆管漏损。为了模拟真实的震后管网局部的渗漏状态,采用数字仿真模拟管线地震破坏程度,对比其地震破坏概率确定渗漏类型,给出考虑管线三态破坏的震后供水管网水力模拟方法,并编制程序对算例管网进行地震破坏模拟分析,得到结论:由于不考虑爆管断开水力损失,传统方法对震后管网功能估计偏高。     

区域供水管网综合抗震能力评估方法

为了评估大区域供水管网的综合抗震能力,分析了城市供水管网脆弱性的影响因素,并基于行业年鉴等数据资源建立了中国大陆区域供水管网综合抗震能力分析数据库。利用突变理论和模糊综合评价模型,建立了区域供水管网抗震能力评估指标体系,提出了区域综合抗震能力评估方法,结合720个城市供水管网管材、场地类别、城市类别、抗震设防等数据和评估影响指标,计算了每个城市基础抗震能力、供水管网自身抗震能力和综合抗震能力指数。建立了区域基础抗震能力分级和供水管网综合抗震能力分类标准,对中国大陆城市供水管网进行了分级和分类。利用ArcGIS计算并绘制了区域基础抗震能力分级图和供水管网综合抗震能力分类图。     

城市供水管网地震时的水力分析研究

震后,供水管网处于低压供水状态,使得管网中部分用户的水压和水量不能得到全部满足,导致管网部分节点的实际配水量小于需水量,为此,在传统的管网水力分析基础上考虑节点流量随水压的动态变化,进而求解管网节点实际流量和水压。为了比较传统的水力分析和考虑不同节点流量与节点压力的关系对水力分析结果的影响差异,对一实际管网进行了震后水力分析。结果表明,考虑节点流量随水压动态变化的水力分析能得到合理的节点压力和节点流量计算值。     

大型城市管网抗震可靠性分析与优化

本文提出了地震作用下供水系统的渗漏模型,发展了地震后带渗漏管网的流分析技术,结合一次二阶矩方法获得了地震后供水管网的功能可靠度。针对供燃气管网系统则提出了一类高效精确的大型网络抗震连通可靠度分析的概率解析算法———递推分解算法。以上述管网抗震可靠性分析理论为基础,分别发展了基于模拟退火算法的供水系统网络拓扑优化分析理论和基于遗传算法的供燃气网络系统拓扑优化理论。     

基于震后低压变化的供水管网功能可靠度分析

供水管网的抗震功能是指供水管网在地震作用下能够满足震后城市特定用水需要（需水量和水压）的能力。地震发生后,供水管网一般处于低压供水状态,使得管网中部分用户的水压和水量不能得到全部满足,导致管网部分节点的实际配水量小于需水量。为此,在传统的管网水力分析基础上考虑节点流量随节点水压的动态变化,通过求解非线性水力方程组,得到管网节点实际流量和水压;同时,借鉴结构可靠度分析方法,引入供水管网系统随机水力模型,给出了震后供水管网功能可靠度分析的一次二阶矩方法。以一实际管网为例,演示了震后低压供水时管网功能可靠度分析的应用方法。     

基于模拟退火算法的供水管网抗震优化设计

本文以管网造价为优化目标,管网拓扑结构为优化参数,管网节点最低可靠度为约束条件,建立了供水管网抗震拓扑优化模型。在供水管网功能可靠性分析方法的基础上,结合单元概率重要度分析方法,利用模拟退火算法提出了供水管网的抗震拓扑优化方法,并对一典型供水管网进行了拓扑优化分析。分析表明,对于管网抗震拓扑优化这样一个组合优化问题,模拟退火算法提供了一类很好的途径,以此为基础进行供水管网抗震可靠性优化设计具有很好的效果。     

地震次生毒气泄漏与扩散的数值模拟与动态仿真

文章对破坏性地震中可能发生的次生毒气泄漏与扩散灾害进行了数值模拟与动态仿真研究，设定了几种有实际意义的数值分析模型，分别进行了结构地震破坏，有毒有害气体泄漏，在一定泄漏和气象条件下的向周围空间扩散的动态仿真研究，给出了典型毒气扩散过程中可致人员死亡，严重危险和有感区域的范围的动态变化结果，作者认为地震次生毒气泄漏与扩散研究对大地震应急、城市和大型企业防灾都有重要的意义和广阔的应用前景。     

巨型梁设置对巨型钢框架结构地震反应的影响

本文以2个巨型钢框架结构作为算例,通过改变巨型梁数量和位置,假设了不同的结构计算方案,输入代表不同场地条件的5条典型地震动和4个场地类别的设计反应谱,应用有限元分析方法,对不同计算方案的算例进行三维弹性地震反应分析。通过对不同计算方案结果的比较分析,研究了巨型梁的数量和位置对巨型钢框架结构地震反应的影响,为进一步深入研究巨型钢结构的抗震性能及抗震设计方法提供基础。     

Eddy diffusivity derived from drifter data for dispersion model applications

Ocean transport and dispersion processes are at the present time simulated using Lagrangian stochastic models coupled with Eulerian circulation models that are supplying analyses and forecasts of the ocean currents at unprecedented time and space resolution. Using the Lagrangian approach, each particle displacement is described by an average motion and a fluctuating part. The first one represents the advection associated with the Eulerian current field of the circulation models while the second one describes the sub-grid scale diffusion. The focus of this study is to quantify the sub-grid scale diffusion of the Lagrangian models written in terms of a horizontal eddy diffusivity. Using a large database of drifters released in different regions of the Mediterranean Sea, the Lagrangian sub-grid scale diffusion has been computed, by considering different regimes when averaging statistical quantities. In addition, the real drifters have been simulated using a trajectory model forced by OGCM currents, focusing on how the Lagrangian properties are reproduced by the simulated trajectories.     

Realistic Modeling of Seismic Input in Urban Areas: A UNESCO-IUGS-IGCP Project

—?The estimation of realistic seismic input can be obtained from the computation of a wide set of time histories and spectral information, corresponding to possible seismotectonic scenarios for different source and structural models. Such a data set can be very constructively used by civil engineers in the design of new seismo-resistant structures and in the reinforcement of the existing built environment, therefore supplying a particularly powerful tool to the prevention efforts of Civil Defense. The availability of realistic numerical simulations enables us to estimate the amplification effects in complex geological structures exploiting the available geotechnical, lithological, geophysical parameters, topography of the medium, tectonic, historical, paleoseismological data, and seismotectonic models. The realistic modeling of the ground motion is a very important source of knowledge for the preparation of groundshaking scenarios which represent a valid and economical tool in seismic microzonation.     

Performance evaluation of AR5-CMIP5 models for the representation of seasonal and multi-annual variability of precipitation in Brazilian hydropower sector basins under RCP8.5 scenario

ABSTRACT

Representations of precipitation from CMIP5 models over the 1950–1999 period in hydrographic basins that are relevant to the Brazilian electricity sector are evaluated in this study. The majority of ensemble members adequately represented seasonal variability, although they differed about the patterns of high-frequency interannual variation. The models did not adequately represent seasonal-scale precipitation in the southern region of Brazil. Relative to other models, the CNRM_CM5 and HadGEM2-ES models demonstrated good seasonal and interannual representation over most basins, while the global CanESM2, GFDL-ESM2M and IPSL_CM5A-LR models demonstrated relatively poor performance. The models concur on the impact of the RCP8.5 scenario in the Southeast/Midwest and South sectors over the period 2015–2044, suggesting that precipitation will decrease up to 15% in the basin supplying the Furnas hydropower plant and by 12% in the basin supplying the Itaipú plant, which represents 25% of the hydroelectric production in Brazil.     

隔震结构地震波选择方法研究

隔震结构的设计一般是采用时程分析算法进行的,故选择合适的地震波十分重要。而目前设计人员往往依据隔震前模型进行隔震设计,存在一定的不合理性。本文依据隔震前和隔震后两种不同的选波模型和对地震波反应谱控制频段的不同提出三种选波方案:方案一为对所选地震动的加速度反应谱在场地特征周期Tg附近的平台段和隔震前结构基本周期T1a所在下降段的控制;方案二为对在Tg附近的平台段和隔震后结构基本周期T1b所在下降段的控制;方案三为对所选地震动的加速度反应谱在Tg附近的平台段和隔震前、后两结构基本周期段的分别控制。通过对某五层混凝土框架隔震结构分别输入三种方案所选的20条地震动记录,对比隔震结构的水平向减震系数的离散性,分析罕遇地震作用下支座位移的合理性,证明方案三可以取得最优的计算结果,并提出一种基于规范设计反应谱不同频段的三频段控制选波方法。此外选取5个不同结构形式的工程算例验证三频段控制选波方法对于一般结构的适用性。     

土层分层参数不确定时对二维工程场址地震动影响分析

工程场地地震安全性评价中计算二维复杂场地地震反应分析时,如采用一维等效线性化分析模型会带来较大的误差,而直接采用二维的非线性模型在技术上还存在一定的困难和不合理性。目前工程中多采用对一维分析结果进行二维修正的思想给出设计地震动及反应谱。然而在建立二维分析模型时,由于勘测条件的限制使模型建立出现很多不确定性。基于以往提出的二维复杂工程场址设计地震动的修正分析思想,建立了几种可能且工程认可的二维复杂场地模型,主要研究不同分层特征模型及土层剪切波速这一物理参数不确定时对设计地震动的影响,进一步考虑不同场地类别下,不同二维分层模型及土体物理参数对地震动的影响。根据分析结果提出了不同类别场地下,方便且合理建立二维复杂场地地震动分析模型的方法,为实际工程中模型的建立及参数的选取提供一些参考。     

Influence of soil to structure stiffness on the accuracy of the pushover method for underground structures

The pushover method for underground structures is a seismic analysis method featured by high calculation accuracy and a simple implementation process. The method has been widely used in seismic design and other related scientific research; however, the influence of different soil-structure flexibility ratios on the accuracy of this method is still not well understood. In this study, we select the cross-section structures beneath the Daikai subway station as the research object and establish 12 finite element analysis models with different soil-structure flexibility ratios using ABAQUS. All models are computed by the dynamic time-history method or the pushover method. Furthermore, the dynamic time-history solution result is taken as the standard solution, and the precision and application of the pushover analysis method are discussed based on the parameters of peak interlayer displacement and peak internal force of the middle column section. The results show that the soil-structure flexibility ratio has a significant influence on the calculation accuracy of the pushover method, and the calculation accuracy of this method is the most ideal when the soil-structure flexibility is equal to 1. The research results can provide significant references for the seismic design of underground structures or the improvement of simplified seismic analysis methods.     

A novel structural detailing for the improvement of seismic and progressive collapse performances of RC frames

Earthquake-induced building collapse and progressive collapse due to accidental local failure of vertical components are the two most common failure modes of reinforced concrete (RC) frame structures. Conventional design methods usually focus on the design requirements of a specific hazard but neglect the interactions between different designs. For example, the progressive collapse design of an RC frame often yields increased reinforcement and flexural strength of the beams. As a result, the seismic design principle of “strong-column-weak-beam” may be violated, which may lead to unfavorable failure modes and weaken the seismic performance. To avoid these adverse effects of the progressive collapse design on the seismic resistance of RC frames, a novel structural detailing is proposed in this study. The proposed detailing technique intends to concurrently improve the seismic and progressive collapse performances of an RC frame by changing the layout of the newly added longitudinal reinforcement against progressive collapse without introducing any additional reinforcement. A six-story RC frame is used as the prototype building for this investigation. Both cyclic and progressive collapse tests are conducted to validate the performance of the proposed structural detailing. Based on the experimental results, detailed finite element (FE) models of the RC frame with different reinforcement layouts are established. The seismic and progressive collapse resistances of different models are compared based on the incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) and nonlinear dynamic alternate path (AP) methods, respectively. The results indicate that the proposed structural detailing can effectively resolve the conflict between the seismic and progressive collapse designs.     

Early detection of brine and CO2 leakage through abandoned wells using pressure and surface-deformation monitoring data: Concept and demonstration

In this paper, we develop a methodology for early detection of potential CO₂ leakage from geological storage formations using pressure and surface-deformation anomalies. The basic idea is based on the fact that leakage-induced pressure signals travel much faster than the migrating CO₂; thus such anomalies may be detected early enough for risk management measures taking effect in avoiding substantial CO₂ leaks. The early detection methodology involves automatic inversion of anomalous brine leakage signals with efficient forward pressure and surface-deformation modeling tools to estimate the location and permeability of leaky features in the caprock. We conduct a global sensitivity analysis to better understand under which conditions pressure anomalies can be clearly identified as leakage signals, and evaluate signal detectability for a broad parameter range considering different detection limits and levels of data noise. The inverse methodology is then applied to two synthetic examples of idealized two-aquifer-and-one aquitard storage systems, with an injection well and a leaky well, for different monitoring scenarios. In Example 1, only pressure data at the monitoring and injection wells are used for leakage detection. Our results show that the accuracy of leakage detection greatly depends on the level of pressure data noise. In Example 2, joint inversion of pressure and surface-deformation measurements significantly improves the speed of convergence toward the true solution of the leakage parameters and enables early leakage detection. In both examples, successful detection is achieved when two monitoring wells are appropriately placed within up to 4 km from the leaky well.