Regional ash fall hazard I: a probabilistic assessment methodology

Volcanic ash is one of the farthest-reaching volcanic hazards and ash produced by large magnitude explosive eruptions has the potential to affect communities over thousands of kilometres. Quantifying the hazard from ash fall is problematic, in part because of data limitations that make eruption characteristics uncertain but also because, given an eruption, the distribution of ash is then controlled by time and altitude-varying wind conditions. Any one location may potentially be affected by ash falls from one, or a number of, volcanoes so that volcano-specific studies may not fully capture the ash fall hazard for communities in volcanically active areas. In an attempt to deal with these uncertainties, this paper outlines a probabilistic framework for assessing ash fall hazard on a regional scale. The methodology employs stochastic simulation techniques and is based upon generic principles that could be applied to any area, but is here applied to the Asia-Pacific region. Average recurrence intervals for eruptions greater than or equal to Volcanic Explosivity Index 4 were established for 190 volcanoes in the region, based upon the eruption history of each volcano and, where data were lacking, the averaged eruptive behaviour of global analogous volcanoes. Eruption histories are drawn from the Smithsonian Institution’s Global Volcanism Program catalogue of Holocene events and unpublished data, with global analogues taken from volcanoes of the same type category: Caldera, Large Cone, Shield, Lava dome or Small Cone. Simulated are 190,000 plausible eruption scenarios, with ash dispersal for each determined using an advection–diffusion model and local wind conditions. Key uncertainties are described by probability distributions. Modelled results include the annual probability of exceeding given ash thicknesses, summed over all eruption scenarios and volcanoes. A companion paper describes the results obtained for the Asia-Pacific region     

Quantifying volcanic ash fall hazard to electricity infrastructure

Quantifying the potential ash fall hazards from re-awakening volcanoes is a topic of great interest. While methods for calculating the probability of eruptions, and for numerical simulation of tephra dispersal and fallout exist, event records at most volcanoes that re-awaken sporadically on decadal to millennial cycles are inadequate to develop rigorous forecasts of occurrence, much less eruptive volume. Here we demonstrate a method by which eruption records from radiocarbon-dated sediment cores can be used to derive forecasting models for ash fall impacts on electrical infrastructure. Our method is illustrated by an example from the Taranaki region of New Zealand. Radiocarbon dates, expressed as years before present (B.P.), are used to define an age-depth model, classifying eruption ages (with associated errors) for a circa 1500–10 500 year B.P. record at Mt. Taranaki (New Zealand). In addition, data describing the youngest 1500 years of eruption activity is obtained from directly dated proximal deposits. Absence of trend and apparent independence in eruption intervals is consistent with a renewal model using a mix of Weibulls distributions, which was used to generate probabilistic forecasts of eruption recurrence. After establishing that interval length and tephra thickness were independent in the record, a thickness–volume relationship (from [Rhoades, D.A., Dowrick, D.J., Wilson, C.J.N., 2002. Volcanic hazard in New Zealand: Scaling and attenuation relations for tephra fall deposits from Taupo volcano. Nat. Hazards, 26:147–174]) was inverted to provide a frequency–volume relationship for eruptions. Monte Carlo simulation of the thickness–volume relationship was then used to produce probable ash fall thicknesses at any chosen site. Several critical electrical infrastructure sites in the Taranaki Region were analysed. This region, being the only gas and condensate-producing area in New Zealand, is of national economic importance, with activities in and around the area depending on uninterrupted power supplies. Forecasts of critical ash thicknesses (1 mm wet and 2 mm dry) that may cause short-circuiting, surges or power shutdowns in substations show that the annual probabilities of serious impact are between ~ 0.5% and 27% over a 50 year period. It was also found that while large eruptions with high ash plumes tend to affect “expected” areas in relation to prevailing winds, the direction impacts of small ash falls are far less predictable. In the Taranaki case study, areas out of normal downwind directions, but close to the volcano, have probabilities of impact for critical thicknesses of 1–2 mm of around half to 60% of those in downwind directions and therefore should not be overlooked in hazard analysis. Through this method we are able to definitively show that the potential ash fall hazard to electrical infrastructure in this area is low in comparison to other natural threats, and provide a quantitative measure for use in risk analysis and budget prioritisation for hazard mitigation measures.     

Volcanic ash hazard in the Central Mediterranean assessed from geological data

Volcanic ash produced during explosive eruptions can have very severe impacts on modern technological societies. Here, we use reconstructed patterns of fine ash dispersal recorded in terrestrial and marine geological archives to assess volcanic ash hazards. The ash-dispersal maps from nine Holocene explosive eruptions of Italian volcanoes have been used to construct frequency maps of distal ash deposition over a wide area, which encompasses central and southern Italy, the Adriatic and Tyrrhenian seas and the Balkans. The maps are presented as two cumulative-thickness isopach maps, one for nine eruptions from different volcanoes and one for six eruptions from Somma-Vesuvius. These maps represent the first use of distal ash layers to construct volcanic hazard maps, and the proposed methodology is easily applicable to other volcanic areas worldwide.     

VolcaNZ—A volcanic loss model for Auckland,New Zealand

VolcaNZ is a probabilistic volcanic loss model developed for the Auckland Region in New Zealand that currently considers tephra fall hazards from the Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF), Tuhua volcano, Okataina volcanic centre, Taupo volcano, Tongariro volcanic centre and Egmont volcano. In this first version of the model, structural and non-structural damage to residential building envelopes and associated cleanup costs are calculated using Monte Carlo simulation.VolcaNZ assigns a Minimum and Maximum Damage Value to groups of buildings for every simulation, dependent on tephra thickness. A Central Damage Value, representing loss as a percentage of total replacement cost, is then randomly selected between these limits. Even with small-thickness falls, non-structural damage is expected to roof and wall coatings, air-conditioning units, aerials and satellite dishes due to the corrosive and abrasive properties of tephra. An average loss of $583, attributed to non-structural damage, was assigned to all residential buildings impacted by any thickness of tephra greater than 0.1 mm. The costs of tephra removal from buildings, cleaning of building exteriors and tephra transport and disposal are also calculated within the model, assuming much of the cleanup process will be carried out by homeowners.Losses from all simulations are plotted against calculated Average Recurrence Intervals (ARIs) to produce loss curves. Structural damage does not become apparent until ARIs of approximately 8000 years. $1 billion losses, due to structural damage, occur at about 35,000 years and this increases to about $26 billion at 1 million years. Loss due to non-structural damage is constant at approximately $160 million for ARIs above about 600 years. Between 600 and 3000 years, cleanup loss is approximately $50 million, increasing to over $450 million at a return period of 1 million years. At ARIs between 600 and 3000 years, total loss is approximately $210 million, increasing to $10 billion at 100,000 years and over $26 billion at 1 million years. Because we only consider residential building damage and associated cleanup, these values greatly underestimate total loss from the next volcanic event to impact Auckland. Loss calculations will be improved by adding additional hazard and loss modules to VolcaNZ, resulting in a complete catastrophe loss model.     

The plinian fallout associated with Quilotoa's 800 yr BP eruption,Ecuadorian Andes

Large volcanic eruptions at dacitic or rhyolitic volcanoes often generate exceptional volumes of fine ash that mantles an area up to a million km². These eruptions are characterized by extreme fragmentation of the magma and hence extraordinary dispersal of ash and are categorized as plinian, ultraplinian, or phreatoplinian events. Large-volume co-ignimbrites or co-plinian ashes are often produced by such eruptions. High fragmentation indices of > 90% are attributed to the violent eruption of silicic magma, especially if augmented by fuel-coolant reactions produced when abundant external water interacts with the magma. The present study documents a case where the fine ash (≤ 1 mm diameter) fall deposit related to the plinian phase of the eruption comprises the overwhelming bulk – about 87 wt.% of the eruptive products. This is another example demonstrating the predominance of a widespread, fine-grained, co-plinian ash which follows the initial coarser lapilli fall. Historical eruptions at two other Andean volcanoes Quizapu, (Chile) and Huaynaputina, (Peru), and at Santa Maria, (Guatemala) and Novarupta, (Alaska) produced similar ash fall sequences.     

ADAP software for automatic detection of ash emission at active volcanoes and calculations of ash plume height using seismological data

ADAP (Automatic Detection of Ash Plume) software intended for automatic detection of the seismic signals accompanying ash emission at the active volcanoes is designed and introduced. This software also calculates the height of the ash plume in real time and automatically sends information on the detected hazardous ash emissions by e-mail and SMS to scientists on duty. The reliability of the program is estimated at 70%. The program has no current analogues.     

Volcanic ash hazard climatology for an eruption of Hekla Volcano,Iceland

Ash produced by a volcanic eruption on Iceland can be hazardous for both the transatlantic flight paths and European airports and airspace. In order to begin to quantify the risk to aircraft, this study explored the probability of ash from a short explosive eruption of Hekla Volcano (63.98°N, 19.7°W) reaching European airspace. Transport, dispersion and deposition of the ash cloud from a three hour ‘explosive’ eruption with an initial plume height of 12 km was simulated using the Met Office's Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment, NAME, the model used operationally by the London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre. Eruptions were simulated over a six year period, from 2003 until 2008, and ash clouds were tracked for four days following each eruption.Results showed that a rapid spread of volcanic ash is possible, with all countries in Europe facing the possibility of an airborne ash concentration exceeding International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) limits within 24 h of an eruption. An additional high impact, low probability event which could occur is the southward spread of the ash cloud which would block transatlantic flights approaching and leaving Europe. Probabilities of significant concentrations of ash are highest to the east of Iceland, with probabilities exceeding 20% in most countries north of 50°N. Deposition probabilities were highest at Scottish and Scandinavian airports. There is some seasonal variability in the probabilities; ash is more likely to reach southern Europe in winter when the mean winds across the continent are northerly. Ash concentrations usually remain higher for longer during summer when the mean wind speeds are lower.     

Development of an automatic volcanic ash sampling apparatus for active volcanoes

We develop an automatic system for the sampling of ash fall particles, to be used for continuous monitoring of magma ascent and eruptive dynamics at active volcanoes. The system consists of a sampling apparatus and cameras to monitor surface phenomena during eruptions. The Sampling Apparatus for Time Series Unmanned Monitoring of Ash (SATSUMA-I and SATSUMA-II) is less than 10 kg in weight and works automatically for more than a month with a 10-kg lead battery to obtain a total of 30 to 36 samples in one cycle of operation. The time range covered in one cycle varies from less than an hour to several months, depending on the aims of observation, allowing researchers to target minute-scale fluctuations in a single eruptive event, as well as daily to weekly trends in persistent volcanic activity. The latest version, SATSUMA-II, also enables control of sampling parameters remotely by e-mail commands. Durability of the apparatus is high: our prototypes worked for several months, in rainy and typhoon seasons, at windy and humid locations, and under strong sunlight. We have been successful in collecting ash samples emitted from Showa crater almost everyday for more than 4 years (2008–2012) at Sakurajima volcano in southwest Japan.     

Volcaniclastic debris-flow occurrences in the Campania region (Southern Italy) and their relation to Holocene–Late Pleistocene pyroclastic fall deposits: implications for large-scale hazard mapping

The Campania Region (southern Italy) is characterized by the frequent occurrence of volcaniclastic debris flows that damage property and loss of life (more than 170 deaths between 1996 and 1999). Historical investigation allowed the identification of more than 500 events during the last four centuries; in particular, more than half of these occurred in the last 100 years, causing hundreds of deaths. The aim of this paper is to quantify debris-flow hazard potential in the Campania Region. To this end, we compared several elements such as the thickness distribution of pyroclastic fall deposits from the last 18 ka of the Vesuvius and Phlegrean Fields volcanoes, the slopes of relieves, and the historical record of volcaniclastic debris flows from A.D. 1500 to the present. Results show that flow occurrence is not only a function of the cumulative thickness of past pyroclastic fall deposits but also depends on the age of emplacement. Deposits younger than 10 ka (Holocene eruptions) apparently increase the risk of debris flows, while those older than 10 ka (Late Pleistocene eruptions) seem to play a less prominent role, which is probably due to different climatic conditions, and therefore different rates of erosion of pyroclastic falls between the Holocene and the Late Pleistocene. Based on the above considerations, we compiled a large-scale debris-flow hazard map of the study area in which five main hazard zones are identified: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high.     

Near-real-time volcanic ash cloud detection: Experiences from the Alaska Volcano Observatory

Volcanic eruptions produce ash clouds, which are a major hazard to population centers and the aviation community. Within the North Pacific (NOPAC) region, there have been numerous volcanic ash clouds that have reached aviation routes. Others have closed airports and traveled for thousands of kilometers. Being able to detect these ash clouds and then provide an assessment of their potential movement is essential for hazard assessment and mitigation. Remote sensing satellite data, through the reverse absorption or split window method, is used to detect these volcanic ash clouds, with a negative signal produced from spectrally semi-transparent ash clouds. Single channel satellite is used to detect the early eruption spectrally opaque ash clouds. Volcanic Ash Transport and Dispersion (VATD) models are used to provide a forecast of the ash clouds' future location. The Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) remote sensing ash detection system automatically analyzes satellite data of volcanic ash clouds, detecting new ash clouds and also providing alerts, both email and text, to those with AVO. However, there are also non-volcanic related features across the NOPAC region that can produce a negative signal. These can complicate alerts and warning of impending ash clouds. Discussions and examples are shown of these non-volcanic features and some analysis is provided on how these features can be discriminated from volcanic ash clouds. Finally, there is discussion on how information of the ash cloud such as location, particle size and concentrations, could be used as VATD model initialization. These model forecasts could then provide an improved assessment of the clouds' future movement.     

The respiratory health hazards of volcanic ash: a review for volcanic risk mitigation

Studies of the respiratory health effects of different types of volcanic ash have been undertaken only in the last 40 years, and mostly since the eruption of Mt. St. Helens in 1980. This review of all published clinical, epidemiological and toxicological studies, and other work known to the authors up to and including 2005, highlights the sparseness of studies on acute health effects after eruptions and the complexity of evaluating the long-term health risk (silicosis, non-specific pneumoconiosis and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) in populations from prolonged exposure to ash due to persistent eruptive activity. The acute and chronic health effects of volcanic ash depend upon particle size (particularly the proportion of respirable-sized material), mineralogical composition (including the crystalline silica content) and the physico-chemical properties of the surfaces of the ash particles, all of which vary between volcanoes and even eruptions of the same volcano, but adequate information on these key characteristics is not reported for most eruptions. The incidence of acute respiratory symptoms (e.g. asthma, bronchitis) varies greatly after ashfalls, from very few, if any, reported cases to population outbreaks of asthma. The studies are inadequate for excluding increases in acute respiratory mortality after eruptions. Individuals with pre-existing lung disease, including asthma, can be at increased risk of their symptoms being exacerbated after falls of fine ash. A comprehensive risk assessment, including toxicological studies, to determine the long-term risk of silicosis from chronic exposure to volcanic ash, has been undertaken only in the eruptions of Mt. St. Helens (1980), USA, and Soufrière Hills, Montserrat (1995 onwards). In the Soufrière Hills eruption, a long-term silicosis hazard has been identified and sufficient exposure and toxicological information obtained to make a probabilistic risk assessment for the development of silicosis in outdoor workers and the general population. A more systematic approach to multi-disciplinary studies in future eruptions is recommended, including establishing an archive of ash samples and a website containing health advice for the public, together with scientific and medical study guidelines for volcanologists and health-care workers.     

Long-term multi-hazard assessment for El Misti volcano (Peru)

We propose a long-term probabilistic multi-hazard assessment for El Misti Volcano, a composite cone located <20 km from Arequipa. The second largest Peruvian city is a rapidly expanding economic centre and is classified by UNESCO as World Heritage. We apply the Bayesian Event Tree code for Volcanic Hazard (BET_VH) to produce probabilistic hazard maps for the predominant volcanic phenomena that may affect c.900,000 people living around the volcano. The methodology accounts for the natural variability displayed by volcanoes in their eruptive behaviour, such as different types/sizes of eruptions and possible vent locations. For this purpose, we treat probabilistically several model runs for some of the main hazardous phenomena (lahars, pyroclastic density currents (PDCs), tephra fall and ballistic ejecta) and data from past eruptions at El Misti (tephra fall, PDCs and lahars) and at other volcanoes (PDCs). The hazard maps, although neglecting possible interactions among phenomena or cascade effects, have been produced with a homogeneous method and refer to a common time window of 1 year. The probability maps reveal that only the north and east suburbs of Arequipa are exposed to all volcanic threats except for ballistic ejecta, which are limited to the uninhabited but touristic summit cone. The probability for pyroclastic density currents reaching recently expanding urban areas and the city along ravines is around 0.05 %/year, similar to the probability obtained for roof-critical tephra loading during the rainy season. Lahars represent by far the most probable threat (around 10 %/year) because at least four radial drainage channels can convey them approximately 20 km away from the volcano across the entire city area in heavy rain episodes, even without eruption. The Río Chili Valley represents the major concern to city safety owing to the probable cascading effect of combined threats: PDCs and rockslides, dammed lake break-outs and subsequent lahars or floods. Although this study does not intend to replace the current El Misti hazard map, the quantitative results of this probabilistic multi-hazard assessment can be incorporated into a multi-risk analysis, to support decision makers in any future improvement of the current hazard evaluation, such as further land-use planning and possible emergency management.     

Use of Seismotectonic Information for the Seismic Hazard Analysis for Surat City, Gujarat, India: Deterministic and Probabilistic Approach

Surat, the financial capital of Gujarat, India, is a mega city with a population exceeding five millions. The city falls under Zone III of the Seismic Zoning Map of India. After the devastating 2001 Bhuj earthquake of Mw 7.7, much attention is paid towards the seismic microzonation activity in the state of Gujarat. In this work, an attempt has been made to evaluate the seismic hazard for Surat City (21.170?N, 72.830?E) based on the probabilistic and deterministic seismic hazard analysis. After collecting a catalogue of historical earthquakes in a 350?km radius around the city and after analyzing a database statistically, deterministic analysis has been carried out considering known tectonic sources; a further recurrence relationship for the control region is found out. Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses were then carried out for the Surat region considering five seismotectonic sources selected from a deterministic approach. The final results of the present investigations are presented in the form of peak ground acceleration and response spectra at bed rock level considering the local site conditions. Rock level Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration values at 0.01?s and 1.0?s corresponding to 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years have been calculated. Further Uniform Hazard Response Spectrum (UHRS) at rock level for 5% damping, and 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, were also developed for the city considering all site classes. These results can be directly used by engineers as basic inputs in earthquake-resistant design of structures in and around the city.     

Improved prediction and tracking of volcanic ash clouds

During the past 30 years, more than 100 airplanes have inadvertently flown through clouds of volcanic ash from erupting volcanoes. Such encounters have caused millions of dollars in damage to the aircraft and have endangered the lives of tens of thousands of passengers. In a few severe cases, total engine failure resulted when ash was ingested into turbines and coating turbine blades. These incidents have prompted the establishment of cooperative efforts by the International Civil Aviation Organization and the volcanological community to provide rapid notification of eruptive activity, and to monitor and forecast the trajectories of ash clouds so that they can be avoided by air traffic. Ash-cloud properties such as plume height, ash concentration, and three-dimensional ash distribution have been monitored through non-conventional remote sensing techniques that are under active development. Forecasting the trajectories of ash clouds has required the development of volcanic ash transport and dispersion models that can calculate the path of an ash cloud over the scale of a continent or a hemisphere. Volcanological inputs to these models, such as plume height, mass eruption rate, eruption duration, ash distribution with altitude, and grain-size distribution, must be assigned in real time during an event, often with limited observations. Databases and protocols are currently being developed that allow for rapid assignment of such source parameters. In this paper, we summarize how an interdisciplinary working group on eruption source parameters has been instigating research to improve upon the current understanding of volcanic ash cloud characterization and predictions. Improved predictions of ash cloud movement and air fall will aid in making better hazard assessments for aviation and for public health and air quality.     

Volcanic lightning: global observations and constraints on source mechanisms

Lightning and electrification at volcanoes are important because they represent a hazard in their own right, they are a component of the global electrical circuit, and because they contribute to ash particle aggregation and modification within ash plumes. The role of water substance (water in all forms) in particular has not been well studied. Here data are presented from a comprehensive global database of volcanic lightning. Lightning has been documented at 80 volcanoes in association with 212 eruptions. The Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) could be determined for 177 eruptions. Eight percent of VEI = 3–5 eruptions have reported lightning, and 10% of VEI = 6, but less than 2% of those with VEI = 1–2. These findings suggest consistent reporting for larger eruptions but either less lightning or possible under-reporting for small eruptions. Ash plume heights (142 observations) show a bimodal distribution with main peaks at 7–12 km and 1–4 km. The former are similar to heights of typical thunderstorms and suggest involvement of water substance, whereas the latter suggest other factors contributing to electrical behavior closer to the vent. Reporting of lightning is more common at night (56%) and less common in daylight (44%). Reporting also varied substantially from year to year, suggesting that a more systematic observational strategy is needed. Several weak trends in lightning occurrence based on magma composition were found. The bimodal ash plume heights are obvious only for andesite to dacite; basalt and basaltic-andesite evenly span the range of heights; and rhyolites are poorly represented. The distributions of the latitudes of volcanoes with lightning and eruptions with lightning roughly mimic the distribution of all volcanoes, which is generally flat with latitude. Meteorological lightning, on the other hand, is common in the tropics and decreases markedly with increasing latitude as the ability of the atmosphere to hold water decreases poleward. This finding supports the idea that if lightning in large (deep) eruptions depends on water substance, then the origin of the water is primarily magma and not entrainment from the surrounding atmosphere. Seasonal effects show that more eruptions with lightning were reported in winter (bounded by the respective autumnal and vernal equinoxes) than in summer. This result also runs counter to the expectations based on entrainment of local water vapor.     

THE HISTORICAL RECORDS OF VOLCANIC ERUPTION IN THE KOREAN PENINSULA

The historical document record is of vital significance to determine the volcanic eruption history age in the volcanology research and it cannot be replaced by ¹⁴C dating and other methods. The volcanoes are widely distributed in the northeast area of China, but there is lack of relevant historical records. However, there are the records of the volcanic eruption in the historical documents of Goryeo Dynasty(AD918-1392)and Joseon Dynasty(AD1391-1910)in the Korean Peninsula which is separated by a river with China only. Some of the records have been widely used as important information to the research of Changbaishan Tianchi volcano eruption history by researchers both at home and abroad, but they have different opinions. On the basis of the historical documents in the Korean Peninsula, that is, the History of Goryeo Dynasty and the Annals of the Joseon Dynasty so on, the phenomena of volcanic eruptions, including the intuitive eruptive events and the doubtful volcanic eruption phenomenon such as "the ash fall", "the white hair fall", "the sky fire", "the dust fall" are investigated and put in order systematically in this paper. The results are as follows:1)The intuitive eruptive events are the 1002AD eruption of Mt. Halla volcano on Jeju Island, Korea Peninsula, and the 1007AD volcanic eruption offshore to the west of Jeju Island, Korea Peninsula, as well as the 1597AD eruption of Mt. Wangtian'e volcano in Changbai County, Jilin Province, China; 2)"The ash fall" is airborne volcanic ash, and those "ash falls" happening in 1265, 1401-1405, 1668, 1673 and 1702AD are possibly the tephra of Changbaishan Tianchi volcano; 3)"The white hair fall" is Pele's hair and it is speculated that the "white hair fall "happening in 1737AD is related to Changbaishan Tianchi volcanic eruption; 4)If regarding "the sky fire" as the volcanic eruption phenomenon, "the sky fire" happening in 1533AD is possibly the Changbaishan volcanic eruption event, and "the sky fire" in 1601-1609AD may be the eruptive event of the Longgang volcano in Jilin Province, China or Changbaishan Tianchi volcano; 5)"The dust fall" is recorded in many historical documents. However, "the dust fall" is not the volcanic ash fall but the phenomenon of loess fall. So, it is improper to determine the eruptive events of Changbaishan Tianchi volcano on the basis of "the dust fall".     

Evaluating long-range volcanic ash hazard using supercomputing facilities: application to Somma-Vesuvius (Italy), and consequences for civil aviation over the Central Mediterranean Area

Volcanic ash causes multiple hazards. One hazard of increasing importance is the threat posed to civil aviation, which occurs over proximal to long-range distances. Ash fallout disrupts airport operations, while the presence of airborne ash at low altitudes near airports affects visibility and the safety of landing and take-off operations. Low concentrations of ash at airplane cruise levels are sufficient to force re-routing of in-flight aircrafts. Volcanic fallout deposits spanning large distances have been recognized from the Somma-Vesuvius volcano for several Holocene explosive eruptions. Here we develop hazard and isochron maps for distal ash fallout from the Somma-Vesuvius, as well as hazard maps for critical ash concentrations at relevant flight levels. Maps are computed by coupling a meteorological model with a fully numeric tephra dispersal model that can account for ash aggregation processes, which are relevant to the dispersion dynamics of fine ash. The simulations were carried out using supercomputing facilities, spanning on entire meteorological year that is statistically representative of the local meteorology during the last few decades. Seasonal influences are also analyzed. The eruptive scenario is based on a Subplinian I-type eruption, which is within the range of the maximum expected event for this volcano. Results allow us to quantify the impact that an event of this magnitude and intensity would have on the main airports and aerial corridors of the Central Mediterranean Area.     

PRELIMINARY VOLCANIC HAZARD ZONATION IN JINLONGDINGZI VOLCANO,LONGANG VOLCANO AREA,JILIN PROVINCE,CHINA

Longgang volcano cluster is 150km away from the Tianchi volcano, located in Jingyu and Huinan Counties, Jilin Province, China. It had a long active history and produced hundreds of volcanoes. The latest and largest eruption occurred between 1 500 and 1 600 years ago by Jinlongdingzi(JLDZ)volcano which had several eruptions in the history. This paper discusses the volcanic hazard types, and using the numerical simulations of lava flow obtained with the Volcflow model, proposes the hazard zonation of JLDZ volcano area. JLDZ volcano eruption type is sub-plinian, which produced a great mass of tephra fallout, covering an area of 260km². The major types of volcanic hazards in JLDZ area are lava flow, tephra fallout and spatter deposits. Volcflow is developed by Kelfoun for the simulation of volcanic flows. The result of Volcflow shows that the flows are on the both sides of the previous lava flows which are low-lying areas now. According to the physical parameters of historical eruption and Volcflow, we propose the preliminary volcanic hazard zonation in JLDZ area. The air fall deposits are the most dangerous product in JLDZ. The highly dangerous region of spatter deposits is limited to a radius of about 2km around the volcano. The high risk area of tephra fallout is between 2km to 9km around the volcano, and between 9km to 14km is the moderate risk area. Out of 14km, it is the low risk area. Lava flow is controlled by topography. From Jinchuan Town to Houhe Village near the volcano is the low-lying area. If the volcano erupts, these areas will be in danger.     

Volcanic hazard at Vesuvius: An analysis for the revision of the current emergency plan

Mt Somma-Vesuvius is a composite volcano on the southern margin of the Campanian Plain which has been active since 39 ka BP and which poses a hazard and risk for the people living around its base. The volcano last erupted in 1944, and since this date has been in repose. As the level of volcanic risk perception is very high in the scientific community, in 1995 a hazard and risk evaluation, and evacuation plan, was published by the Italian Department of Civil Protection (Dipartimento della Protezione Civile). The plan considered the response to a worst-case scenario, taken to be a subplinian eruption on the scale of the 1631 AD eruption, and based on a volcanological reconstruction of this eruption, assumes that a future eruption will be preceded by about two weeks of ground uplift at the volcano's summit, and about one week of locally perceptible seismic activity. Moreover, by analogy with the 1631 events, the plan assumes that ash fall and pyroclastic flow should be recognized as the primary volcanic hazard. To design the response to this subplinian eruption, the emergency plan divided the Somma-Vesuvius region into three hazard zones affected by pyroclastic flows (Red Zone), tephra fall (Yellow and Green Zone), and floods (Blue Zone). The plan at present is the subject of much controversy, and, in our opinion, several assumptions need to be modified according to the following arguments: a) For the precursory unrest problem, recent scientific studies show that at present neither forecast capability is realistic, so that the assumption that a future eruption will be preceded by about two weeks of forecasts need to be modified; b) Regarding the exposure of the Vesuvius region to flow phenomena, the Red Zone presents much inconsistency near the outer border as it has been defined by the administrative limits of the eighteen municipality area lying on the volcano. As this outer limit shows no uniformity, a pressing need exists to define appropriately the flow hazard zone, since there are some important public structures not considered in the current Red Zone that could be exposed to flow risk; c) Modern wind records clearly indicate that at the time of a future eruption winds could blow not only from the west, but also from the east, so that the Yellow Zone (the area with the potential to be affected by significant tephra fall deposits) must be redefined. As a result the relationship between the Yellow Zone and Green Zone (the area within and beyond which the impact of tephra fall is expected to be insignificant) must be reconsidered mainly in the Naples area; d) The May 1998 landslide, caused in the Apennine region east of the volcano by continuous rain fall, led to the definition of a zone affected by re-mobilisation of tephra (Blue Zone), confined in the Nola valley. However, as described in the 1631 chronicles of the eruption, if generation of debris flows occurs during and after a future eruption, a much wider region east of the Somma-Vesuvius must be affected by events of this type.