Seismic radiation from dynamic coalescence, and the reconstruction of dynamic source parameters on a planar fault

The dynamic coalescence of two mode II cracks on a planar fault is simulated here using the elastodynamic boundary integral equation method. We focus on the complexity of the resultant slip rate and seismic radiation in the crack coalescence model (CCM) and on the reconstruction of a single crack model (SCM) that can reproduce the CCM waveforms from heterogeneous source parameters rather than coalescence. Simulation results reveal that localized higher slip rates are generated by coalescence as a result of stress interaction between the approaching crack tips. The synthesized seismic radiation exhibits a distinct coalescence phase that has striking similarities to stopping phases in the radiation and propagation properties. The corresponding SCM yields a singular increase in the stress drop distribution, which is accompanied by a sudden decrease in it across the point of coalescence in the CCM. This implies that the generation of high-frequency radiation is more efficient from coalescence than from stopping, although both phenomena exhibit the same strong  ω⁻²  -type displacement spectra.     

Non-Poissonian earthquake occurrence in coupled stress release models and its effect on seismic hazard

Most seismic hazard estimations are based on the assumption of a Poisson process for earthquake occurrence, even though both observations and models indicate a departure of real seismic sequences from this simplistic assumption. Instrumental earthquake catalogues show earthquake clustering on regional scales while the elastic rebound theory predicts a periodic recurrence of characteristic earthquakes on longer timescales for individual events. Recent implementations of time-dependent hazard calculations in California and Japan are based on quasi-periodic recurrences of fault ruptures according to renewal models such as the Brownian Passage Time model. However, these renewal models neglect earthquake interactions and the dependence on the stressing history which might destroy any regularity of earthquake recurrences in reality. To explore this, we investigate the (coupled) stress release model, a stochastic version of the elastic rebound hypothesis. In particular, we are interested in the time-variability of the occurrence of large earthquakes and its sensitivity to the occurrence of Gutenberg–Richter type earthquake activity and fault interactions. Our results show that in general large earthquakes occur quasi-periodically in the model: the occurrence probability of large earthquakes is strongly decreased shortly after a strong event and becomes constant on longer timescales. Although possible stress-interaction between adjacent fault zones does not affect the recurrence time distributions in each zone significantly, it leads to a temporal clustering of events on larger regional scales. The non-random characteristics, especially the quasi-periodic behaviour of large earthquakes, are even more pronounced if stress changes due to small earthquakes are less important. The recurrence-time distribution for the largest events is characterized by a coefficient of variation from 0.6 to 0.84 depending on the relative importance of small earthquakes.     

Quasi-static analysis of strike fault growth in layered media

We study the effects of structural inhomogeneity on the quasi-static growth of strike-slip faults. A layered medium is considered, made up of an upper layer bounded by a free surface and welded to a lower half-space with different elastic property. Mode III crack is employed as a mathematical model of strike-slip fault, which is nucleated in the lower half-space and then propagates towards the interface. We adopt FEM-β, newly proposed analysis method for failure, to simulate the quasi-statistic crack growth governed by the stress distribution in layered media. Our results show that along planar traces across interfaces a compliant upper layer has significant effects on promoting/suppressing crack growth before/after its extension into the layer and vice versa for a rigid one. This proposes a possibility that surface breaks due to strike-slip faulting could be arrested by deposit layers at the topmost part of the Earth's crust.     

Core-log integration studies in hole-A of Taiwan Chelungpu-fault Drilling Project

Taiwan Chelungpu-fault Drilling Project (TCDP) was initiated to understand the physical mechanisms involved in the large displacements of the 1999 Taiwan Chi-Chi earthquake. Continuous measurements of cores (including laboratory work) and a suite of geophysical downhole logs, including P - and S -wave sonic velocity, gamma ray, electrical resistivity, density, temperature, electrical borehole images and dipole-shear sonic imager, were acquired in Hole-A over the depth of 500–2003 m. Integrated studies of cores and logs facilitate qualitative and quantitative comparison of subsurface structures and physical properties of rocks. A total of 10 subunits were divided on the basis of geophysical characteristics. Generally, formation velocity and temperature increase with depth as a result of the overburden and thermal gradient, respectively. Gamma ray, resistivity, formation density, shear velocity anisotropy and density-derived porosity are primarily dependent on the lithology. Zones with changes of percentage of shear wave anisotropy and the fast shear polarization azimuth deduced from Dipole Shear-Imager (DSI) are associated with the appearance of fractures, steep bedding and shear zones. The fast shear wave azimuth is in good agreement with overall dip of the bedding (approximately 30° towards SE) and maximum horizontal compressional direction, particularly in the Kueichulin Formation showing strong shear wave velocity anisotropy. Bedding-parallel fractures are prevalent within cores, whereas minor sets of high-angle, NNW–SSE trending with N- and S-dipping fractures are sporadically distributed. The fault zone at depth 1111 m (FZA1111) is the Chi-Chi earthquake slip zone and could be a fluid conduit after the earthquake. The drastic change in fast shear wave polarization direction across the underlying, non-active Sanyi thrust at depth 1710 m reflects changes in stratigraphy, physical properties and structural geometry.     

Scaling relations of earthquakes and aseismic deformation in a damage rheology model

We perform analytical and numerical studies of scaling relations of earthquakes and partition of elastic strain energy between seismic and aseismic components using a thermodynamically based continuum damage model. Brittle instabilities occur in the model at critical damage level associated with loss of convexity of the strain energy function. A new procedure is developed for calculating stress drop and plastic strain in regions sustaining brittle instabilities. The formulation connects the damage rheology parameters with dynamic friction of simpler frameworks, and the plastic strain accumulation is governed by a procedure that is equivalent to Drucker–Prager plasticity. The numerical simulations use variable boundary forces proportional to the slip-deficit between the assumed far field plate motion and displacement of the boundary nodes. These boundary conditions account for the evolution of elastic properties and plastic strain in the model region. 3-D simulations of earthquakes in a model with a large strike-slip fault produce scaling relations between the scalar seismic potency, rupture area, and stress drop values that are in good agreement with observations and other theoretical studies. The area and potency of the simulated earthquakes generally follow a linear log–log relation with a slope of 2/3, and are associated with stress drop values between 1 and 10 MPa. A parameter-space study shows that the area-potency scaling is shifted to higher stress drops in simulations with parameters corresponding to lower dynamic friction, more efficient healing, and higher degree of seismic coupling.     

云南鲁甸地震灾害应急救援环境分析与影响快速评估

2014年8月3日16时30分,云南省昭通市鲁甸县发生6.5级地震,此次地震危害性较大。在快速收集震区地震烈度分布、地形状况、土地利用/覆盖现状、乡镇人口、居民点分布、房屋建筑物以及高分辨率遥感图像等信息的基础上,应用GIS空间分析和定量评估模型,对重灾区自然环境状况,受灾人口、房屋建筑物及道路交通等敏感受体影响,牛栏江沿岸次生地质灾害风险等级,坡耕地退耕及水土流失防治4个方面进行了快速评估,并针对震区人员救助、地质次生灾害防治以及灾后重建生态治理提出了科学的对策建议。     

Strain accumulation along an oblique plate boundary: the Reykjanes Peninsula, southwest Iceland

We use annual GPS observations on the Reykjanes Peninsula (RP) from 2000 to 2006 to generate maps of surface velocities and strain rates across the active plate boundary. We find that the surface deformation on the RP is consistent with oblique plate boundary motion on a regional scale, although considerable temporal and spatial strain rate variations are observed within the plate boundary zone. A small, but consistent increase in eastward velocity is observed at several stations on the southern part of the peninsula, compared to the 1993–1998 time period. The 2000–2006 velocities can be modelled by approximating the plate boundary as a series of vertical dislocations with left-lateral motion and opening. For the RP plate boundary we estimate left-lateral motion  18⁺⁴₋₃ mm yr⁻¹  and opening of  7⁺³₋₂ mm yr⁻¹  below a locking depth of  7⁺¹₋₂ km  . The resulting deep motion of  20⁺⁴₋₃ mm yr⁻¹  in the direction of  N(100⁺⁸₋₆)°E  agrees well with the predicted relative North America–Eurasia rate. We calculate the areal and shear strain rates using velocities from two periods: 1993–1998 and 2000–2006. The deep motion along the plate boundary results in left-lateral shear strain rates, which are perturbed by shallow deformation due to the 1994–1998 inflation and elevated seismicity in the Hengill–Hrómundartindur volcanic system, geothermal fluid extraction at the Svartsengi power plant, and possibly earthquake activity on the central part of the peninsula.     

四川雅安芦山地震灾区次生地质灾害评估及对策建议

2013年4月20日08点02分,四川雅安芦山县发生了7.0级强震。此次地震发生的区域地形条件复杂,地震烈度大,使得震区地质条件进一步恶化,在强降雨等叠加等条件下,次生地质灾害风险显著加剧。本文收集了震区地形、地质、构造断层分布、地震烈度分布、历史灾害、降雨以及卫星影像等资料,对震区的次生地质灾害的危险性从以下3个方面进行了评估:① 地震力触发下震区次生地质灾害空间分布;② 不同降雨触发下震区次生地质灾害空间分布及趋势分析;③ 地震与降雨共同作用下震区次生地质灾害空间分布。在此基础上圈定了震区次生地质灾害高危和需要重点监测防范区域,为灾害救援与重建过程中次生地质灾害的防范提出了对策建议。     

SH-waves scattering from a partially filled semi-circular alluvial valley

A series solution of the plane SH-waves incident on a partially filled semi-circular alluvial valley imbedded in a half-space is presented. Based on the region-matching method, the analysed region is decomposed into two subregions by the interface between two media. The antiplane displacement field of each subregion is expressed in terms of an infinite series of cylindrical wavefunctions with unknown expansion coefficients. After imposing the traction-free condition on the curved valley surface and the matching conditions on the interface with the aid of Graf's addition theorem, the unknown coefficients are obtained. Both the frequency- and time-domain responses are evaluated. In the theoretical derivation of this work, two classical exact series solutions are also included, so the present series solution is more general than those given before. Visible effects of different physical parameters on ground surface motions are illustrated in graphical form.     

An analytical approach for the scattering of SH waves by a symmetrical V-shaped canyon: shallow case

Based on the application of the region-matching technique, an analytical approach is presented for the scattering of plane SH waves from a shallow symmetrical V-shaped canyon, and then a series solution is derived. The analysed region is divided into an enclosed and an open region by introducing a semi-circular auxiliary boundary. In each region, the displacement field can be expressed as infinite sum of appropriate wavefunctions satisfying partial boundary conditions, respectively. The unknown coefficients can be determined by enforcing the continuity conditions in connection with the Graf's addition formula. The frequency- and time-domain responses are both evaluated and displayed for several physical parameters. From graphical results, the effects of the canyon depth on surface ground motion are conspicuous. The proposed series solutions can serve as benchmark for numerical methods, in particular for those at much higher frequencies.     

Earthquake prediction: a critical review

Earthquake prediction research has been conducted for over 100 years with no obvious successes. Claims of breakthroughs have failed to withstand scrutiny. Extensive searches have failed to find reliable precursors. Theoretical work suggests that faulting is a non-linear process which is highly sensitive to unmeasurably fine details of the state of the Earth in a large volume, not just in the immediate vicinity of the hypocentre. Any small earthquake thus has some probability of cascading into a large event. Reliable issuing of alarms of imminent large earthquakes appears to be effectively impossible.