A topo-geochemical sequence study of groundwater in Asa drainage basin, Kwara State, Nigeria

 A strong geochemical gradient was observed in the thick overburden aquifer of the Asa drainage basin. Different types of groundwater occur at different (downslope) locations and groundwater table depths. The following sequence was noticed with increasing distance downslope or with increasing groundwater table depth: 1. Ca–Mg–HCO₃ water at about 390-m groundwater table elevations or upslope locations. 2. Ca–Mg–HCO₃–Cl water at middle-slope locations or groundwater table elevations of about 350 m above sea level; 3. Ca–Mg–SO₄–Cl water at downslope locations or groundwater table elevations of about 300 m above sea level. In this basin, changes in the type of water are expected at about every 40–50 m depth from the surface. Statistical analysis via the determination of the correlation coefficient (r) and regression analysis shows that about 80–99% of the variation in groundwater chemistry is accounted for by the topography, using the model presented in this paper. The rate of change in the sequence will depend on the permeability of the aquifer, which determines the rate of groundwater flow and the residence time, and the nature of recharge. Received: 4 February 1997 · Accepted: 22 July 1997     

Spatial distribution of the calcareous dinoflagellate Thoracosphaera heimii in the upper water column of the tropical and equatorial Atlantic

 The horizontal and vertical distribution of the phototrophic, calcareous dinoflagellate Thoracosphaera heimii in the upper part of the water column (10–200 m) of the equatorial and tropical Atlantic Ocean has been studied. This first survey has been made to determine which part of the water column is inhabited by T. heimii and is subsequently represented as a signal in the sediment record by this species. The study concentrates on the fossilisable vegetative coccoid life stage of the species and differentiates between T. heimii shells with cell content and empty ones. The highest quantities of T. heimii shells with cell content have been observed in water depths between 50 and 100 m and coincide with relatively lower temperatures and relatively higher salinities than respective surface conditions. We propose that in the tropical equatorial Atlantic the major part of the environmental signal given by T. heimii can be assumed to represent the deeper levels of the upper water column. Received: 9 November 1998 / Accepted: 19 April 1999     

Assessing the effectiveness of nanoscale zero-valent iron particles produced by green tea for Cr(VI)-contaminated groundwater remediation

Nanoscale zero-valent iron particles(NZVI) produced by using green tea(GT) extract as a reductant can remove Cr(Ⅵ) from water effectively,which can be utilized in groundwater remediation.In order to define the reaction mechanism and removal effect in the aquifer,in this study,GT-NZVI particles were prepared and measured by some characterization methods to define their surface performance,and then batch and one-dimensional experiments were carried out to reveal the reaction properties of GT-NZVI ...     

Assessment of water level threshold for groundwater restoration and over-exploitation remediation the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Plain

The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Plain (BTHP) is the political, economic and cultural center of China, where groundwater is the main source of water supply to support social and economic development. Continuous overdraft of the resources has caused a persistent decline of groundwater level and formed a huge cone of depression at a regional scale. This paper addresses current groundwater situation over the BTHP area. The paper also delineates the groundwater flow field, using groundwater level data, in order to provide an effective method for the restoration of groundwater level and associated water resources management. Based on the analysis of multiple factors, such as groundwater level, soil salinization, ground subsidence, groundwater recharge and storage, urban underground space security, formation of fractures, and seawater intrusion, the threshold for groundwater level restoration is defined, and some measures for groundwater over-exploitation management are accordingly proposed. The study shows that: (i) Since the 1980s to 2020, shallow groundwater level in the western part of the BTHP area has dropped by 25 m to 60 m, while the cumulative decline of deep groundwater in the central and eastern regions is in the range of 40–80 m; (ii) The water table of the shallow groundwater within the depression zone over the Western Piedmont Plain should be controlled in the range of 15–30 m below ground level (mbgl), while the depth of groundwater level in large and medium-sized urban areas should be controlled within 20–30 mbgl. The groundwater level in the resource preservation area should be controlled within 10–15 mbgl, and the groundwater level in the area with identified soil salinization in the central and eastern plain should be controlled within 3–10 mbgl. However, for the deep groundwater in the central and eastern plainwater, the main focus of the resources management is to control the land subsidence. The water level in the severe land subsidence area should be controlled within 45–60 mbgl, and in the general subsidence area should be controlled within 30–45 mbgl; (iii) Based on the water level recovery threshold and proposed groundwater overdraft management program, if the balance of abstraction and recharge is reached in 2025, the shallow groundwater abstraction needs to be gradually reduced by about 2×10⁸ m³. Meanwhile, the ecological water replenishment of rivers through the South-to-North Water Transfer Project should be increased to 28.58×10⁸ m³/a, and the deep groundwater abstraction needs to be gradually reduced by 2.24×10⁸ m³. To reach the target of shallow groundwater level in 2040, surface water replacement is recommended with a rate of 25.77×10⁸ m³/a and the ecological water replenishment of rivers in the South-to-North Water Diversion Project should reach 33.51×10⁸ m³/a. For deep groundwater recovery, it is recommended to replace the deep freshwater extraction with the utilization of shallow salt water by 2.82×10⁸ m³ , in addition to the amount of 7.86×10⁸ m³ by water diversion. The results are of great significance to the remediation of groundwater over-exploitation, the regulation of water resources development and utilization, and ecological protection in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei plain.     

Spatial and temporal variability of surface water and groundwater before and after the remediation of a Portuguese uranium mine area

The old Senhora das Fontes uranium mine, in central Portugal, consists of quartz veins which penetrated along fracture shear zones at the contact between graphite schist and orthogneiss. The mine was exploited underground until a depth of 90 m and was closed down in 1971. The ores from this mine and two others were treated in the mine area by the heap-leach process which ended in 1982. Seven dumps containing a total of about 33,800 m³ of material and partially covered by natural vegetation were left in the mine area. A remediation process took place from May 2010 to January 2011. The material deposited in dumps was relocated and covered with erosion resisting covers. Surface water and groundwater were collected in the wet season just before the remediation, in the following season at the beginning of the remediation and also after the remediation in the following dry season. Before, at the beginning and after the remediation, surface water and groundwater have an acid-to-alkaline pH, which decreased with the remediation, whereas Eh increased. In general, before the remediation, uranium concentration was up to 83 μg/L in surface water and up to 116 μg/L in groundwater, whereas at the beginning of the remediation it increases up to 183 μg/L and 272 μg/L in the former and the latter, respectively, due to the remobilization of mine dumps and pyrite and chalcopyrite exposures, responsible for the pH decrease. In general, after the remediation, the U concentration decreased significantly in surface water and groundwater at the north part of the mine area, but increased in both, particularly in the latter up to 774 μg/L in the south and southwest parts of this area, attributed to the remobilization of sulphides that caused mobilization of metals and arsenic which migrated to the groundwater flow. Uranium is adsorbed in clay minerals, but also in goethite as indicated by the geochemical modelling. After the remediation, the saturation indices of oxyhydroxides decrease as pH decreases. The remediation also caused decrease in Cd, Co, Cr, Ni, Pb, Zn, Cu, As, Sr and Mn concentrations of surface water and groundwater, particularly in the north part of the mine area, which is supported by the speciation modelling that shows the decrease of most dissolved bivalent species. However, in general, after the remediation, Th, Cd, Al, Li, Pb, Sr and As concentrations increased in groundwater and surface water at south and southwest of the mine area. Before and after the remediation, surface water and groundwater are contaminated in U, Cd, Cr, Al, Mn, Ni, Pb, Cu and As. Remediation caused only some improvement at north of the mine area, because at south and southwest part, after the remediation, the groundwater is more contaminated than before the remediation.     

Numerical modeling assessment of three-gate structures for capturing contaminated groundwater

This modeling study evaluated the capability of alternative funnel-and-gate structures with three gates for capturing contaminated groundwater in a hypothetical unconfined aquifer. Simulated interceptor structures were linear and 45 m wide, consisting of three gates and two funnels (walls). One gate occupied the center and two gates occupied the ends of the interceptor structures. The structures, positioned perpendicular to regional groundwater flow, traversed the entire thickness of the aquifer. A total of four structures were evaluated (numbers designate widths of end, center, and end gates, respectively, in meters): 3-3-3, 2-5-2, 1-7-1, and 4-1-4. Particle tracking and zonal water budgets identified shapes of capture zones and discharge patterns for each interceptor structure. A mass transport model, accounting for advection and hydrodynamic dispersion, tested the capability of each structure for capturing a contaminant plume. Results suggest that: time-dependent capture zones underestimate the amount of time to capture a contaminant plume, wide center gates facilitate plume capture, and wide end gates facilitate lateral containment of contaminants. Of the structures simulated, the 2-5-2 configuration was relatively efficient at processing and containing the simulated contaminant plume.     

Deciphering potential groundwater zone in hard rock through the application of GIS

Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System has become one of the leading tools in the field of hydrogeological science, which helps in assessing, monitoring and conserving groundwater resources. It allows manipulation and analysis of individual layer of spatial data. It is used for analysing and modelling the interrelationship between the layers. This paper mainly deals with the integrated approach of Remote Sensing and geographical information system (GIS) to delineate groundwater potential zones in hard rock terrain. The remotely sensed data at the scale of 1:50,000 and topographical information from available maps, have been used for the preparation of ground water prospective map by integrating geology, geomorphology, slope, drainage-density and lineaments map of the study area. Further, the data on yield of aquifer, as observed from existing bore wells in the area, has been used to validate the groundwater potential map. The final result depicts the favourable prospective zones in the study area and can be helpful in better planning and management of groundwater resources especially in hard rock terrains.     

GIS for the assessment of the groundwater recharge potential zone

Water resources in Taiwan are unevenly distributed in spatial and temporal domains. Effectively utilizing the water resources is an imperative task due to climate change. At present, groundwater contributes 34% of the total annual water supply and is an important fresh water resource. However, over-exploitation has decreased groundwater availability and has led to land subsidence. Assessing the potential zone of groundwater recharge is extremely important for the protection of water quality and the management of groundwater systems. The Chih-Pen Creek basin in eastern Taiwan is examined in this study to assess its groundwater resources potential. Remote sensing and the geographical information system (GIS) are used to integrate five contributing factors: lithology, land cover/land use, lineaments, drainage, and slope. The weights of factors contributing to the groundwater recharge are derived using aerial photos, geology maps, a land use database, and field verification. The resultant map of the groundwater potential zone demonstrates that the highest recharge potential area is located towards the downstream regions in the basin because of the high infiltration rates caused by gravelly sand and agricultural land use in these regions. In contrast, the least effective recharge potential area is in upstream regions due to the low infiltration of limestone.     

Determination of groundwater availability in shallow arid region aquifers utilizing GIS technology: a case study in Hada Al-Sham, Western Saudi Arabia

A simple, physically based method is developed in this paper to assist in the allocation of areas with high groundwater potential and for the determination of maximum allowed pumping rate to ensure proper groundwater management. This method utilizes the aquifer physical properties as well as GIS technology to accomplish this purpose. The design of this method was considered to be applicable in areas with little data, such as in most arid regions. This technique was applied to a catchment in an arid environment where qualitative as well as quantitative analyses of the results were undertaken. Locations of available groundwater and rates of maximum allowable pumping were compared with observations and experiments in the field and a good agreement was found. It was concluded that the best groundwater location was in the alluvial area, which represents only 16% of the total aquifer, which is a typical case in arid region catchments. The rate of maximum pumping was estimated to be 65 m³/h. However, to benefit 55% of the area, the maximum pumping rate should only be 40 m³/h with an average rate throughout the area (55%) of about 24 m³/h.This revised version was published online in December 2004 with corrections to the category.     

Hydrogeochemistry of the groundwater flow system in a crystalline terrain: a study from the Kurunegala district,Sri Lanka

Water samples collected from dug wells and tube wells from the Kurunegala District of Sri Lanka have been studied for their major hydrogeochemical parameters to understand the chemical quality of water in the terrain. The region is composed of Precambrian metamorphic rocks where groundwater is only available in the regolith and along weak structural discontinuities. The study of the major chemical constituents of groundwater revealed several relationships with the aquifer lithology. Groundwater from mafic rocks have high dissolved solids, while quartzose metaclastic rocks yield water with low dissolved solids. The study area displays very low SO₄ ²⁻ contents of the groundwater. The chloride content is higher in the dry regions and in terrains underlain by pink granite and marble/calc gneiss while areas with marble, as expected, show high concentrations of Ca and Mg ions. The waters in the region can be classified into non-dominant cations to Na + K dominant and Cl⁻ and HCO₃ ⁻ dominant types. Water from charnockite-bearing areas tends to have non-dominant cations and more CO₃ ²⁻ + HCO₃ ⁻ types. Effects such as soluble salts in the regolith, fracture intensity and climatic variations play a significant role in the behavior of the hydrogeochemistry in the area.     

Paleocollapse structure as a passageway for groundwater flow and contaminant transport

 Paleocollapse structure is a rock collapse, resulting from the failure in the geological history of the bedrock overlying karstified limestone. Depending on the present hydrogeological conditions within the area of paleocollapse and the internal properties of these structures, they can provide a means to facilitate groundwater flow and contaminant transport. Inactive paleocollapse structures can be reactivated by human activities such as dam construction, mining underground minerals, pumping groundwater, and development of landfills. They can also be reactivated by natural events such as earthquakes and neotectonic movements. In the mines of northern China, sudden inflow of karst water from Ordovician limestone into drifts and mining stopes through paleocollapse structures has caused significant economic loss. Water pumping tests and accompanied dye traces are effective approaches of locating water-conducting paleocollapse structures. Grouting is probably the best means of preventing them from becoming geohazards. Received: 26 November 1996 · Accepted: 17 June 1997     

Delineation of groundwater protection zones based on tracer tests and transport modeling in alluvial sediments

 Regulations aiming to protect exploitable groundwater resources were edicted in Belgium a few years ago. Therefore, prevention and protection zones are defined by law and must be determined practically around each pumping well or spring, based on local hydrogeological conditions. The determination of hydrodynamic and hydrodispersive parameters, characterizing the local flow and transport properties of the aquifer, requires pumping and tracing tests. The interpretation of these field experiments, considering the heterogeneity of the geological layers, is performed through the use of numerical FEM simulations of the groundwater flow and pollutant transport conditions in a deterministic framework. After calibration of the model on experimental measurements, multiple simulations with contaminant injections at various points of the modeled domain allow the determination of the transfer time of the pollutant in the studied aquifer whilst taking the updated heterogeneity into account. On the basis of the computed transfer times in the saturated zone, the various prevention and protection areas can be assessed based on provisions of the law. Received: 27 June 1997 · Accepted: 29 July 1997     

某农药厂场地土壤地下水污染修复指导值探讨

参考加拿大Alberta SGRG层次性分析模式,选择其中Tier 1、Tier 2两层次进行分析,结合适合我国的参数计算出了某农药厂土壤地下水中的有机污染物1,2-二氯乙烷、1,2-二氯丙烷修复值,得到了通用的Tier 1修复指导值分别为:渗坑土壤中1,2-二氯乙烷6.2μg/kg,1,2-二氯丙烷67μg/kg;场地地下水中1,2-二氯乙烷、1,2-二氯丙烷均为5μg/L。在此基础上,结合实地调查获取场地参数,利用Tier 2评价对指导值进行修正,确定了场地最终修复目标值:渗坑土壤中1,2-二氯乙烷为11μg/kg,1,2-二氯丙烷为45μg/kg;地下水中1,2-二氯乙烷、1,2-二氯丙烷仍为5μg/L。各途径修复值的改变较符合层次性评价的理论,即Tier 2修复值较Tier 1宽松;但1,2-二氯丙烷的保护DUA途径修复值较Tier 1更加严格,这是由于场地特定条件造成的。     

Evaluation of change in subsurface thermal environment due to groundwater flow in the Tokyo Lowland,Japan

Information on the distribution of subsurface temperature and hydraulic heads at 24 observation wells in and around the Tokyo Lowland, the eastern part of the Tokyo Metropolitan area, were examined to make clear the relationship between groundwater and the subsurface thermal environment in the urban area. Minimums in temperature–depth logs due to subsurface temperature increasing at shallow parts were recognized in 21 wells. This fact shows subsurface temperature is affected by ground surface warming in almost all of this area. Deeper than minimums, where the effects of surface warming became relatively small, regional variation is observed as follows: high temperatures are shown in the central part to the southern part, and low temperatures shown in the inland to eastern part. The high temperature area corresponds to an area where the lower boundary of groundwater flow is relatively shallow. This area corresponds also to an area with severe land subsidence resulting from excessive groundwater pumping. It is considered that this high temperature area is formed by the effects of upward groundwater flow affected by hydrogeological conditions and pumping. On the other hand, a comparison between past data (1956–1967) and present data (2001–2003) revealed widespread decreasing temperature in the inland area. This is explained by downward groundwater flow based on an analysis of temperature–depth logs. This fact suggests that subsurface temperature is not only increasing from the effects of surface warming but also decreasing from the effects of groundwater environment change due to pumping.     

Effect of sediment size on area of influence during groundwater remediation by air sparging: a laboratory approach

 Air sparging is a groundwater remediation technique, in which organic contaminants volatilize into air as it rises from the saturated to vadose zone. An unknown has been the relationship between sediment size and area affected by air. Laboratory experiments were performed on sediments to determine the area affected by air as a function of grain size. For average grain sizes of 1.1 and 1.3-mm diameter, air flow occurs in discrete meandering channels, with a maximum area of sediment column affected of 13%/m² for 1.1-mm and 14%/m² for 1.3-mm sediments. For average grain sizes of 1.84, 2.61 and 4.38-mm diameter, air flow is pervasive, forming a symmetrical cone of influence around the injection point. Maximum areas affected are15%/m² for 1.84-mm, 25%/m² for 2.61-mm, and 9%/m² for 4.38-mm sediments. Optimal sites for air sparging, may be those with grain diameters between about 2–3 mm. Received: 26 June 1998 · Accepted: 27 July 1998     

The use of infiltration field tests for groundwater artificial recharge

 When using surface infiltration as a method of recharge, infiltration testing is considered an important additional data input along with other hydrogeologic data into the recharge decision. As part of an investigation into the potential for groundwater recharge, two desert basins in Jordan (Wadi Madoneh and Wadi Butum) were investigated to determine the possibility of recharge using floodwater retention structures. For each area, short-duration (up to 7-h) infiltration tests were conducted to estimate surface infiltration capacity of the upper soil layers in order to present to the authorities preliminary information which could be used along with other factors to aid in the selection of the best site for a pilot recharge project. Given the highly fractured rock formations that constitute the underlying aquifers in the two areas, it was assumed that the upper alluvium layers are the limiting factors in transmitting water to target aquifers. The infiltration tests conducted to estimate the recharge characteristics of the recharge sites yielded test results that indicated a representative infiltration rate of 0.44 m/day for the Wadi Madoneh site and 0.197 m/day for the Wadi Butum site. The data input was used subsequently with other decision factors to select the most promising site for the pilot project. Received: 9 January 1998 · Accepted: 27 April 1998     

WEKU – a GIS-Supported stochastic model of groundwater residence times in upper aquifers for the supraregional groundwater management

 The supraregional GIS-supported stochastical model, WEKU, for the determination of groundwater residence times in the upper aquifers of large groundwater provinces is presented. Using a two-dimensional analytical model of groundwater flow, groundwater residence times are determined within two extreme cases. In the first case, maximal groundwater residence times are calculated, representing the part of groundwater, that is drained by the main surface water of a groundwater catchment area. In the second case, minimal groundwater residence times for drainage into the nearest surface water are determined. Using explicit distribution functions of the input parameters, mean values as well as potential ranges of variations of the groundwater residence times are derived. The WEKU model has been used for the determination of groundwater residence times throughout Germany. The model results – mean values and deviations of the groundwater velocity and the maximal and minimal groundwater residence times in the upper aquifers – are presented by general maps and discussed in detail. It is shown that the groundwater residence times in the upper aquifer vary regionally, differentiated between less than 1 year and more than 2000 years. Using this information, the time scales can be specified, until measures to remediate polluted groundwater resources may lead to a substantial groundwater quality improvement in the different groundwater provinces of Germany. With respect to its supraregional scale of application, the WEKU model may serve as a useful tool for the supraregional groundwater management on a state, federal or international level. Received: 15 August 1995 · Accepted: 15 October 1995     

Conceptual model of the evolution of groundwater quality at the wet zone in Sri Lanka

 The evolution of groundwater quality at a wet zone in Sri Lanka was made clear using field investigation, chemical and isotopic analyses methods. In the wet zone, the concentrations of major ions and electrical conductivity (EC) in the groundwater are low with small seasonal change. Except for sodium, silica and chloride, the EC and other major ion concentrations increase along the groundwater flow direction. The contributions of bicarbonate and calcium ions to the increase in EC are the largest among the major ions. The groundwater quality shows calcium-bicarbonate type, the initial stage of the Chebotarev series. There is a seasonal change in isotopic composition. The isotopically lighter groundwater was found at the valley bottom in the rainy season. Under the very heavy precipitation conditions, the slope of the regression line between δD and δ¹⁸O and deuterium excess for groundwater are close to 8 and 10, respectively. In other cases, the slopes of the regression lines and deuterium excess are, less than 8 and 10, respectively. Received: 5 August 1998 · Accepted: 19 October 1998     

Hydrogeological investigation of a groundwater contamination site in southern Taiwan

 Groundwater samples taken from wells adjacent to a food machinery manufacturing plant in southern Taiwan indicate that there is a serious phenolic contamination. To understand the hydrogeological properties, and to prepare for remedial action, a series of hydrogeological investigations were conducted. Investigative work included collecting background information, analyzing existing data, measuring the groundwater, and conducting a slug test, pumping and recovery test, aerial photography analysis and electrical resistivity survey. Results from these investigations show that the local groundwater aquifer may be classified as an unconfined or confined formation, depending on the thickness of the interbedded clay layer. The direction of local groundwater flow is from southwest to northeast, with high transmissivity. The contaminant moves much more slowly than the average groundwater velocity, and it is limited to an area centered around the plant. The local geology of the contaminated area exhibits significant heterogeneity; it is not likely to have been formed by natural sedimentation. Data from the field aerial photography analysis and electrical resistivity survey also suggest that this shallow formation may result from artificial back-filling. Received: 1 September 1994 · Accepted: 28 December 1995     

Evaluation of groundwater availability and sustainable extraction rate for the Upper Santiago Valley Aquifer,Chile

The use of groundwater as water supply has increased dramatically in Santiago, Chile, during the last decades, and there is a need for accurately estimating the actual groundwater supply capacity in the upper Santiago Valley aquifer. The behavior of this aquifer was studied in order to determine the availability of water and the long-range sustainable extraction rate.Water-table depths were simulated using a numerical model with information on recharge from the last 48 years under different extraction policies. With this series of groundwater level data, groundwater level probability distribution functions were determined and extraction statistics were estimated by fitting time series models and by using the crossing theory. With this information, it has been possible to calculate the risk of being unable to supply groundwater demand because the results verify that only 67% of the water rights granted are able to be extracted on a sustained basis with a 90% exceedance probability. Furthermore, the results obtained demonstrate that the method is adequate for determining exceedance probabilities of groundwater flow.

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Resumen El uso de las aguas subterráneas como fuente de abastecimiento se ha incrementado enormemente en Santiago de Chile durante las últimas décadas, por lo que se necesita estimar de forma adecuada la capacidad actual de suministro del acuífero superior del Valle de Santiago. Se ha estudiado el comportamiento de este acuífero para determinar la disponibilidad de recursos y la tasa de extracción sustentable a largo plazo.Se ha simulado los niveles freáticos del acuífero utilizando un modelo numérico con información de la recarga en los últimos 48 años bajo diferentes regímenes de extracción. Con esta serie de datos de los niveles en el acuífero, se ha determinado la distribución de probabilidad de los niveles de las aguas subterráneas y se ha estimado las estadísticas de las extracciones mediante el ajuste de modelos de series temporales y la teoría de cruce. Con esta información, se ha podido calcular el riego de no satisfacer la demanda de abastecimiento, puesto que los resultados verifican que sólo se podría extraer el 67% de las concesiones de agua existentes de manera sustentable con un 90% de probabilidad de excedencia. Aún más, los resultados obtenidos demuestran que el método es adecuado para determinar las probabilidades de excedencia del flujo de las aguas subterráneas.

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Resumé Lutilisation de leau souterraine pour leau potable sest considérablement accrue à Santiago (Chili) au cours des derniers lustres; cest pourquoi il est maintenant nécessaire destimer avec précision la capacité réelle dalimentation de la nappe de laquifère supérieur de la vallée de Santiago. Le fonctionnement de cet aquifère a été étudié afin de déterminer la disponibilité en eau et le taux dextraction durable à long terme.Les niveaux de la nappe ont été simulés avec un modèle numérique à partir dinformation sur la recharge au cours des 48 dernières années pour différentes politiques dextraction. A partir de cette série de données piézométriques, des fonctions de distribution de probabilité des niveaux de la nappe ont été déterminées et des statistiques dextraction ont été estimées par ajustement de modèles de séries chronologiques en utilisant la théorie du croisement. Avec ces informations, il a été possible de calculer le risque de ne pas pouvoir satisfaire la demande deau souterraine, puisque les résultats vérifient que seulement 67% des droits deau attribués peuvent être extraits sur une base durable avec une probabilité de dépassement de 90%. En outre, les résultats obtenus démontrent que la méthode est adaptée à la détermination des probabilités de dépassement de lécoulement souterrain.