Assessment of design rainfall uncertainty for hydrologic engineering applications in Hong Kong

Hydrologic engineering designs and analyses often require the specification of design storm which involves rainfall amount, duration and hyetograph. In practice, the determination of design rainfall in hydrologic engineering applications involves the frequency analysis of extreme rainfalls of different durations and the establishment of rainfall hyetograph for the design event under consideration. Sampling errors exist in the estimation of rainfall depth (or intensity) quantiles from frequency analysis, which will be transmitted in the process of determining the design rainfall hyetograph. This paper presents a practical methodological framework based on the bootstrap resampling scheme to assess the uncertainty features associated with the magnitude of estimated rainfall depth/intensity quantiles and the corresponding design hyetographs. The procedure is implemented to quantify uncertainty of design rainfall hyetograph following the Stormwater Drainage Manual of Hong Kong involving the use of rainfall intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) model. Of particular interesting is that the bootstrap resampling scheme implemented herein is modified to handle unequal record period of annual maximum rainfall data series of different durations and to account for their intrinsic correlations. According to the adopted rainfall IDF model, the design rainfall hyetograph is a function of the IDF model coefficients. Due to the correlation among rainfall quantiles of different durations, the IDF coefficients are found to be strongly related in a nonlinear fashion which should not be ignored in the establishment of the design hyetographs.     

Incorporating uncertainty in hydrological predictions for gauged and ungauged basins in southern Africa

Abstract

The increasing demand for water in southern Africa necessitates adequate quantification of current freshwater resources. Watershed models are the standard tool used to generate continuous estimates of streamflow and other hydrological variables. However, the accuracy of the results is often not quantified, and model assessment is hindered by a scarcity of historical observations. Quantifying the uncertainty in hydrological estimates would increase the value and credibility of predictions. A model-independent framework aimed at achieving consistency in incorporating and analysing uncertainty within water resources estimation tools in gauged and ungauged basins is presented. Uncertainty estimation in ungauged basins is achieved via two strategies: a local approach for a priori model parameter estimation from physical catchment characteristics, and a regional approach to regionalize signatures of catchment behaviour that can be used to constrain model outputs. We compare these two sources of information in the data-scarce region of South Africa. The results show that both approaches are capable of uncertainty reduction, but that their relative values vary.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Kapangaziwiri, E., Hughes, D.A., and Wagener, T., 2012. Incorporating uncertainty in hydrological predictions for gauged and ungauged basins in southern Africa. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (5), 1000–1019.     

Identification and stochastic generation of representative rainfall temporal patterns in Hong Kong territory

In hydrosystem engineering design and analysis, temporal pattern for rainfall events of interest is often required. In this paper, statistical cluster analysis of dimensionless rainfall pattern is applied to identify representative temporal rainfall patterns typically occurred in Hong Kong Territory. For purpose of selecting an appropriate rainfall pattern in engineering applications, factors affecting the occurrence of different rainfall patterns are examined by statistical contingency tables analysis through which the inter-dependence of the occurrence frequency of rainfall patterns with respect to geographical location, rainfall duration and depth, and seasonality is investigated. Furthermore, due to inherent variability of rainfall mass curves or hyetographs within each classified rainfall pattern, a practical procedure to probabilistically generate plausible rainfall patterns is described. The procedure preserves the inherent stochastic features of random dimensionless rainfall hyetograph ordinates, which in general are correlated non-normal multivariate compositional variables.     

Predicting river width,depth and velocity at ungauged sites in England and Wales using multilevel models

Using a dataset of gauged river discharges taken from sites in England and Wales, linear multilevel models (also known as mixed effects models) were applied to quantify the variability in discharge and the discharge‐hydraulic geometry relationships across three nested spatial scales. A jackknifing procedure was used to test the ability of the multilevel models to predict hydraulic geometry, and therefore width, mean depth and mean velocity, at ungauged stations. These models provide a framework for making predictions of hydraulic geometry parameters, with associated levels of uncertainty, using different levels of data availability. Results indicate that as one travels downstream along a river there is greater variability in hydraulic geometry than is the case between rivers of similar sizes. This indicates that hydraulic geometry (and therefore hydrology) is driven by catchment area, to a greater extent than by natural geomorphological variations in the streamwise direction at the mesoscale, but these geomorphological variations can still have a major impact on channel structure. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于半分析算法的香港邻近海域叶绿素a浓度反演

为进一步了解香港近海水体特性及监测其水质状况,根据2001年3-5月在香港临近海域调查取得的实测资料,对该海域水体光谱进行解析,开发该海域叶绿素a浓度与色素吸收系数aph(675)的经验模型,具有较高相关性;用剖面数据外推及水体光谱模拟方法完成对水下表面遥感反射率光谱的推导;进而建屯反演低浓度区叶绿素a浓度的半分析算法,反演结果与实测值比较平均相对误差为45%,均方根差0.933,相关系数0.78,误差主要来源于外推演算及散射模型.结果表明该算法在低悬浮物低叶绿素浓度区域有一定适用性.     

Finding regions of influence on SO2 and SO= 4 daily concentration measurements at four sites in Spain

Contamination by the pollutants SO₂ and SO⁼₄ was analyzed for the 1989–1992 period at four regional stations in Spain under the auspices of the EMEP-BAPMON program. The evolution of the time series of the daily pollution has also been assessed, and high mean concentrations at La Cartuja and Logroño observed, with values of 3.8 and 4.5 g m⁻³ for SO₂, respectively. Maximum annual concentrations were recorded in 1989, when SO₂ reached values of 6.24, 5.39, 5.71, and 9.30 g m⁻³ for the stations of La Cartuja, San Pablo de los Montes, Roquetas, and Logroño, respectively. This work attempts to establish a relationship between the concentrations of the pollutants - both SO₂ gas and SO⁼₄ aerosol - and the zones of emission or persistence of these long-range transported pollutants. In this way, those regions showing a greater impact on the air quality in each season have been determined. To achieve this, the trajectories of the air masses carrying away the pollution to each of the receiving stations were considered and followed by a sectorial analysis. Nonparametric statistical methods were implemented to contrast the chemical homogeneity among the different sectors. The criterion that several homogeneous sectors form a chemically homogeneous region was used. To improve this sectorial analysis, we have proposed a new technique based on the Potential-Source-Contribution Function (PSCF). Starting out from a set of specified regions, considered to be chemically homogeneous domains, it is possible to determine the likelihood that an air mass with particular characteristics (e.g., that a value of the daily concentration higher than the mean recorded at the station has been obtained) will arrive at a given station after having crossed one of the previously defined regions. Using this technique, it is possible to determine the source regions through which the air masses circulate and bring high pollution concentrations to the studied stations. Thanks to the PSCF, these statistical methods offer, through a sectorial analysis, the possibility to pass from a qualitative to a more quantitative view.     

Allometric relationships of Po and Pb in mussels and their application to environmental monitoring

Mussels from the Portuguese coast collected during several seasons of the year have shown ²¹⁰Po and ²¹⁰Pb body burdens (Bq mussel⁻¹) that increased with mussels’ body size but displayed significant decrease in radionuclide concentrations (Bq kg⁻¹). For example, the increase of mussel size from 2.5 cm to 5.0 cm maximum shell length corresponded in average to a 50% decrease of ²¹⁰Po activity concentration in soft tissues from 1065 Bq kg⁻¹ (dw) to 540 Bq kg⁻¹ (dw). A similar reduction in concentration was observed for ²¹⁰Pb. The physiological condition of mussels, relating to fat and glycogen storage, had an effect on radionuclide concentrations, although the total body burden of radionuclide in mussels remained nearly constant throughout the year. These factors may play an important role in data interpretation for environmental monitoring programmes. Besides the mussel size and condition index, due to the inter-individual variation even inside narrow mussel size classes, the sample size, i.e., the number of specimens in one mussel sample is another key factor to be considered when obtaining environmentally representative radionuclide concentrations.     

Respiration rate and swimming activity of larvae of two sub-tidal nassariid gastropods under reduced oxygen levels: implications for their distributions in Hong Kong waters

The effects of hypoxia on the larvae of two sub-tidal nassariid gastropods, Nassarius siquijorensis and N. conoidalis were compared so as to understand how the species-specific tolerance to hypoxia might have resulted in changes in the abundance and distribution of these two species in the hypoxic Tolo Harbour, Hong Kong, since the 1980s. Respiration rates of N. siquijorensis and N. conoidalis larvae were reduced at 4.5 mg O2 l(-1), or below, as compared with the normoxic control. Significant reduction in swimming velocity was also observed for 10-day old larvae which were exposed to <2.0 mg O2 l(-1) for N. siquijorensis and <1.0 mg O2 l(-1) for N. conoidalis. The 48 h LC50 values of N. siquijorensis and N. conoidalis larvae were 0.7 and 1.7 mg O2 l(-1), respectively. The results suggested that N. siquijorensis are more tolerant to hypoxia than N. conoidalis.     

Analysis of surface roughness in relation to soil loss and runoff at high rainfall intensities

The decay of roughness is an important factor governing surface processes such as infiltration and soil erosion. Thus the decay of surface roughness under different surface conditions was investigated and related to quantitative amounts of soil loss, runoff and sediment concentration in a laboratory experiment. Rainfall with an intensity of 128 mm/h was applied to a bare or mulched surfaces of a sandy loam soil with known surface roughness at specified time intervals. The decay of roughness as expressed by roughness ratio, in this experiment, was better predicted when related to an exponential function of the square root of cumulative kinetic energy of rainfall rather than with the cumulative rainfall. The roughness decay equations in literature did not predict breakdown under mulched surfaces accurately. Thus the exponent parameters of the roughness decay equations were adjusted to reflect the reduced decay occurring under mulched surfaces. In a bare soil, regression equations expressing the dependent variables as a function of initial roughness index were significant, but with low coefficients of determination, being 0·39 for soil loss, 0·12 for runoff and 0·36 for sediment concentration. In addition to initial roughness index, cumulative kinetic energy of rainfall was further included in the regressions. This led to an increase in coefficients of determination, which was 0·81 for soil loss, 0·74 for runoff and 0·49 for sediment concentration. The coefficients of determination (0·87 for soil loss, 0·85 for runoff and 0·51 for sediment concentration) were further increased when the final roughness index was included in addition to initial roughness index and cumulative kinetic energy in the regressions. This work shows that soil loss and runoff could be predicted from bare soil surface provided the initial roughness and the energy of rainfall is known. However, field verifications of these relationships are needed under different tillage tools and under natural rainfall. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Influence of the Pearl River estuary and vertical mixing in Victoria Harbor on water quality in relation to eutrophication impacts in Hong Kong waters

This study presents water quality parameters such as nutrients, phytoplankton biomass and dissolved oxygen based on 11 years of water quality data in Victoria Harbor and examined how the Pearl River estuary discharge in summer and year round sewage discharge influenced these parameters. Nutrients in Victoria Harbor were strongly influenced by both the Pearl River and sewage effluent, as indicated by the high NO(3) inputs from the Pearl River in summer and higher NH(4) and PO(4) in Victoria Harbor than both its sides. N:P ratios were low in the dry season, but increased to >16:1 in the wet season, suggesting that P is potentially the most limiting nutrient in this area during the critical period in the summer. Although there were generally high nutrients, the phytoplankton biomass was not as high as one would expect in Victoria Harbor. In fact, there were high concentrations of chl near the bottom well below the photic zone. Salinity near the bottom was lower in Victoria Harbor than at the two entrances to Victoria Harbor, suggesting strong vertical mixing within Victoria Harbor. Therefore, strong vertical mixing and horizontal advection appear to play an important role in significantly reducing eutrophication impacts in Victoria Harbor. Consequently, dissolved oxygen near the bottom was low in summer, but only occasionally dipped to 2 mgL(-1) despite the high organic loading from sewage effluent.     

Cytological and Physiological Biomarker Responses from Green Mussels, Perna viridis (L.) Transplanted to Contaminated Sites in Hong Kong Coastal Waters

Biological monitoring of marine contaminants often involves the analysis of metals accumulated in mussel tissues. Critiques of this type of monitoring suggest that although relatively good indications of ambient metal concentrations are determined, actual biological harm is not elucidated. Biomarkers, techniques originally developed in medicine, have recently been employed in an attempt to ascertain the health of marine mussels. Biomarkers have been used with good effect in temperate marine pollution monitoring programmes. The use of biomarkers in the toxicological evaluation of tropical and subtropical waters is, however, generally lacking, which is somewhat surprising, as considerable industrialisation and environmental degradation is taking place in the Pacific-rim countries of Southeast Asia. In the present study, a suite of cytological and physiological biomarkers have been measured from mussels (Perna viridis: Mytilidae) transplanted within the coastal waters of Hong Kong. Mussels from contaminated sites, had labile lysosomal membranes, whereas animals from a cleaner reference site had more stable membranes. These cytological responses have been related to metal-induced stress and are simple, cost-effective markers of pollution. Cardiac activity from mussels transplanted to polluted sites was generally similar to that of individuals from the reference site, although a mild tachycardia was associated with one site. The cause of the tachycardia and the use of heart rate in mussels as a biomarker is discussed. Integrated physiological responses to stress, condition indices, revealed mussels from a clean reference site had higher indices than animals from contaminated sites. The relative sensitivities of the cytological and physiological biomarkers deployed in this study and their application to pollution monitoring is discussed.     

Response of meiofaunal community with special reference to nematodes upon deployment of artificial reefs and cessation of bottom trawling in subtropical waters, Hong Kong

The response of meiofaunal communities, especially nematodes, upon the deployment of artificial reefs and cessation of bottom trawling at a designated Marine Protected Area (MPA) in Hong Kong was studied through comparison of meiofaunal samples collected inside and outside the MPA. Total organic carbon (TOC), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), total phosphorus (TP), water content and silt-clay fraction in sediments were also analyzed. The level of TOC and TKN, and total meiofaunal and nematode abundance were significantly lower inside than that outside the MPA. Multivariate analysis also indicated differences in community structure. Biological traits analysis revealed that the proportions of nematodes with a clavate tail shape, longer adult length, stout body shape and k-strategy life history were higher inside than that outside the MPA. Such changes in nematode community structure could be a result of the presence of the artificial reefs and closure of the MPA from bottom trawling.     

Organohalogens and metals in marine fish and mussels and some relationships to biological variables at reference localities in Norway

The main goals of this study were to define, for the Norwegian coast, "high background" levels of micropollutants routinely monitored within the the Oslo and Paris Commission Joint Assessment and Monitoring Programme, and to reassess the present Norwegian reference levels used as the basis for a classification of environmental quality. The indicator organisms analysed as bulked/individual samples were cod (Gadus morhua, n approximately 1170; n approximately 240 for organochlorines), dab (Limanda limanda, n approximately 75), plaice (Pleuronectes platessa, n approximately 55) lemon sole (Microstomus kitt, n approximately 13). and blue mussels (Mytilus edulis, n approximately 200) collected between 1991-2000. Based on the 90-95 percentiles of measurements at localities far from point sources, we propose for liver of cod a reference level for SigmaPCB(7) (CBs 28, 52, 101, 118, 138, 153 and 180) of 500 microg kg(-1) w.w. and further for DDE 200 microg kg(-1), SigmaHCHs 30 microg kg(-1), HCB 20 and OCS 5 microgkg(-1) w.w. In the same order the proposed reference levels for liver of dab are: 150, 60, 15, 5, and 2 microgkg(-1) w.w.; and for the soft body of mussels: 3, 1, 1, 0.1 and 0.1 microg kg(-1) wet weight. Reference levels of metals are 0.1 mgHg kg(-1) w.w. in fish fillet, and for Hg, Cd, Pb, Zn, Cu in mussels 0.2, 2, 3, 200 and 10 mg kg(-1) d.w., respectively. Hg in fillet of cod and dab were positively correlated with length and weight. PCB levels in liver of cod and dab showed a positive but weak correlation with length, whereas no co-variation was found between PCBs and liver fat. The results of introductory recordings of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins/dibenzofurans, polychlorinated naphtalenes, Toxaphene and brominated flame retardants in liver of cod from reference sites are also presented.     

西藏尼洋河水生生物群落时空动态及与环境因子的关系:1.浮游植物

于2008-2009年按照季节调查了西藏尼洋河浮游植物群落的组成、丰度和多样性,并运用多元统计方法定量分析了浮游植物的空间和季节变化特征及其与主要环境因子之间的关系.结果显示,尼洋河浮游植物共计7门29科48属,其中硅藻为优势浮游藻类.浮游植物Shannon-Wiener多样性指数(Pielou均匀度指数)在尼洋河中游(尼洋河下游)最高,其他河段呈下降趋势,符合中间高度膨胀假说.尼洋河沿程浮游植物的总丰度、物种丰富度、Shannon-Wiener多样性指数以及Pielou均匀度指数不存在显著差异,夏季的浮游植物物种丰富度与其他季节的存在显著差异,夏季总丰度与秋、冬季的存在显著差异,冬季的浮游植物Shannon-Wiener多样性指数与春季的存在显著差异,冬季的均匀度指数与其他3个季节的存在显著差异.尼洋河浮游植物季节演替依赖于外源性水源补充,沿程演替则与河道底质有着很大关系.典范对应分析(CCA)表明,尼洋河硅藻门舟形藻科的藻类与理化因子铵态氮、表层pH、表层水温相关,部分蓝藻以及绿藻与水质理化因子也存在着关联.分类回归树(CART)模型预测了尼洋河着生藻类时空分布与主要环境因子之间的定量关系,尼洋河浮游植物群落总丰度和均匀度指数受pH值影响较大,pH值低于8.0的水域浮游植物均匀度指数比pH值高于8.0的水域大,尼洋河浮游植物Shannon-Wiener多样性指数受到河道底质影响较大,底质为黏土的水域浮游植物Shannon-Wiener多样性指数较底质为砂石的大.这些关键环境因子对尼洋河水域浮游植物的时空变化有着重要的指示作用,建议加强对浮游植物及这些环境因子的关注,保障尼洋河水域生态环境的可持续发展.     

Variations in Schumann resonances and their relation to atmospheric electric parameters at Nagycenk station

The present study is based on simultaneous measurements of the atmospheric electric potential gradient (PG) and Schumann resonances at Nagycenk station (Hungary) from 1993 to 1996. Annual and semiannual variations detected previously in the relative amplitudes of Schumann resonances (SR) in the first three modes are confirmed by the extended data series applied here. The regular annual variation found in the PG (with winter maximum and summer minimum) is in the opposite phase, compared to that of the SR amplitudes. Nevertheless, even the PG (being a parameter of the DC global circuit) occasionally shows a distinct secondary peak in summer as indicated by the results of the present analysis (and corresponding to a recent study on further parameters of the DC global circuit). In spite of the presumed dominance of local influence over the global one, a suitable PG parameter correlates well with SR (representing the AC global circuit) on the annual time scale. It also became evident that a semiannual variation (with spring and autumn maxima and winter and summer minima) is generally present in SR. Certain signatures of a semiannual variation have also been revealed in the PG, however, the phase of this semiannual variation does not fit the pattern shown by SR (and tropical surface air temperature, respectively). The representativeness of the PG data has also been checked by means of a single day’s diurnal variations displaying a phase corresponding to that of the ‘Carnegie Curve’. Additionally, the coincidence of short-term changes (lasting some hours) both in the SR and the PG parameter is also demonstrated on a day disturbed by local factors. The results are discussed in the context of correlations between surface air temperature and parameters of the atmospheric electric global circuit shown by previous studies.     

西藏尼洋河水生生物群落时空动态及与环境因子关系:3.大型底栖动物

于2008-2009年按照季节调查了西藏地区尼洋河大型底栖动物群落的组成和丰度,并运用多元统计方法定量分析了大型底栖动物的空间和季节变化特征及其与主要环境因子之间的关系.结果显示,石蚕幼虫、萝卜螺以及摇蚊幼虫是尼洋河主要的大型底栖动物,另外,随着海拔的升高,尼洋河大型底栖动物总丰度呈现降低趋势;Duncan检验法显示,物种总丰度在各采样点之间均不存在显著性差异;PCA方法显示,对于采样点,大型底栖动物总丰度最大值和最小值分别出现在采样点Ⅳ和采样点Ⅱ,对于季节,大型底栖动物总丰度最大值和最小值分别出现在秋季和冬季;CCA方法显示,可分别从尼洋河中上游和中下游两个河段来概括尼洋河大型底栖动物与环境因子之间的关系;CART模型显示,从11项环境因子筛选了4项环境因子用以解释它们与大型底栖动物总丰度之间的相互关系,这4项环境因子包括矿化度、总磷、海拔和季节,建议加强对大型底栖动物及这些环境因子的关注,保障尼洋河水域生态环境的可持续发展.     

西藏尼洋河水生生物群落时空动态及与环境因子关系:2.着生藻类

本文于2008-2009年按照季节调查了西藏地区尼洋河着生藻类群落的组成、丰度和多样性,并运用多元统计方法定量分析了着生藻类的空间和季节变化特征及其与主要环境因子之间的关系.结果显示,尼洋河着生藻类共计6门30科49属,其中硅藻为优势着生藻类.着生藻类的Shannon-Wiener多样性指数在尼洋河中游最高,在中上游河段和中下游河段呈下降趋势,符合中间高度膨胀(mid-altitude bulge)假说.着生藻类的总丰度、物种丰富度以及Shannon-Wiener多样性指数在尼洋河沿程不存在显著差异,总丰度在各个季节之间不存在显著差异,但物种丰富度在秋季和冬季存在显著差异,夏、秋季着生藻类的Shannon-Wiener多样性指数显著高于冬、春季.主成分分析(PCA)表明,随着海拔的升高,着生藻类的物种丰富度和总丰度呈递减趋势;典范对应分析(CCA)表明,尼洋河部分硅藻与理化因子相关联,如:双壁藻(Diploneis)的丰度与总磷相关联,窗纹藻(Epithemia)的丰度与铵态氮相关联,双菱藻属(Surirella)的丰度与pH值相关联;部分绿藻与理化因子相关联,如:小球藻属(Chlorella)、栅藻属(Scenedesmus)、溪菜属(Prasiola)的丰度与水温相关联,小椿藻(Characium)的丰度与硬度相关联,转板藻(Mougeotia)的丰度与表层溶氧、矿化度相关联,新月藻属(Closterium)的丰度与碱度相关联;分类回归树(CART)模型预测了尼洋河着生藻类时空分布与主要环境因子之间的定量关系,即低海拔水域的着生藻类总丰度较高海拔高,高矿化度水域的着生藻类总丰度较低矿化度的高,不能用影响尼洋河着生藻类种类和数量的环境因子来解释着生藻类的Shannon-Wiener多样性指数.这些关键环境因子对尼洋河水域着生藻类的时空变化有着重要的指示作用,建议加强对着生藻类及这些环境因子的关注,保障尼洋河水域生态环境的可持续发展.     

Fishing perturbations and beached corals in the Cape d'Aguilar Marine Reserve, Hong Kong (2000-2002) and a summary of data obtained from January 1996 to March 2003

Every month for four years (1996-1999) and every three months for three years thereafter (2000-2003) stranded corals were collected from Telecom Bay Beach in the Cape d'Aguilar Marine Reserve, Hong Kong. Over time, the numbers of coral pieces and heads recovered declined progressively. Exceptions to this at first occurred after the passage of tropical depressions and typhoons over Hong Kong when the numbers of coral heads rose sharply. This was particularly obvious from 1996 to 1999. During this period, however, fishing was banned in the marine reserve and in 2000 and 2001 only a few corals were beached despite the passage of a series of typhoons over Hong Kong in both years. It is argued that gill net and purse seine fishermen had stopped snagging their nets on the shallow corals of Telecom Bay and they were thus no longer being dislodged and subsequently deposited on the beach by typhoon surges and waves. In 2002, therefore, few corals were collected. This situation changed in September 2002, however, when Severe Tropical Storm Hagiput deposited numerous large living coral heads on the beach. A seabed inspection showed there to be three active ghost nets in the reserve. Natural perturbations such as, for example, coral bleaching in the El Nino year of 1997-1998 also affected community composition at Cape d'Aguilar through selective, low salinity-induced mortality.