On the recurvature of tropical cyclones and the storm surge problem in Bangladesh

The disproportionality of the large frequency of occurrence of severe storm surges on the coast of Bangladesh is highlighted. The reasons for the recurvature of these storms towards the Bangladesh coast and the associated severe surges are discussed in this paper.Atmospheric Environment Service, Ice Center, Environment Canada, 373 Sussex Drive, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada K1A 0H3.     

Numerical Modelling of Storm Surge in the Head Bay of Bengal Using Location Specific Model

The head Bay of Bengal region, which covers part of Orissa and west Bengal in India as well as Bangladesh, is one of the most vulnerable regions of extreme sea levels associated with severe tropical cyclones which cause extensive damage. There has been extensive loss of life and property due to extreme events in this region. Shallow nature of the Bay, presence of Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna deltaic system and high tidal range are responsible for storm surges in this region. In view of this a location specific fine resolution numerical modelis developed for the simulation of storm surges. To represent mostof the islands and rivers in this region a 3km grid resolution is adopted. Several numerical experiments are carried out to compute the storm surges using the wind stress forcings representative of 1974, 1985, 1988, 1989, 1991, 1994 and 1999 cyclones, which crossed this region. The model computed surges are in good agreement with the available observations/estimates.     

Impact of Southern Oscillation on the Frequency of Monsoon Depressions in the Bay of Bengal

The impact of Southern Oscillation on thecyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal duringthe summer monsoon has been investigated.The analysis of correlation coefficients(CCs) between the frequency of monsoondepressions and the Southern OscillationIndex (SOI) reveals that more depressionsform during July and August of El Niñoyears. Due to this, the seasonal frequencyof monsoon depressions remains little higherduring El Niño epochs even though thecorrelations for June and September are notsignificant. The CCs for July and August aresignificant at the 99% level.The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)is known to affect Indian MonsoonRainfall (IMR) adversely. The enhancedcyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal duringJuly and August is an impact of ENSO whichneeds to be examined closely. Increasedcyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal may bereducing the deficiency in IMR duringEl Niño years by producing more rainfallover the eastern parts of India duringJuly and August. Thus there is a considerablespatial variation in the impact of ENSOon the monsoon rainfall over India and El Niñoneed not necessarily imply a monsoonfailure everywhere in India.The area of formation of monsoon depressionsshifts eastward during El Niño years.Warmer sea surface temperature (SST) anomaliesprevail over northwest and adjoiningwestcentral Bay of Bengal during premonsoon andmonsoon seasons of El Niño years.May minus March SOI can provide useful predictionsof monsoon depression frequencyduring July and August.     

Variations of Indian monsoon precipitation during the last 32 kyr reflected in the surface hydrography of the Western Bay of Bengal

Hydrography of the Bay of Bengal is highly influenced by the river runoff and rainfall during the southwest monsoon. We have reconstructed δ¹⁸Osw, sea surface salinity and sea surface temperature (SST) changes in the Bay of Bengal by using paired measurements of δ¹⁸O and Mg/Ca in a planktonic foraminifera species Globigerinoides ruber from core SK218/1 in the western Bay of Bengal in order to understand the rainfall variability associated with southwest monsoon over the past 32 kyr. Our SST reconstructions reveal that Bay of Bengal was ～3.2 °C cooler during the LGM as compared to present day temperature and a ～3.5 °C rise in SST is documented from 17 to 10 ka. Both SST and δ¹⁸Osw exhibit greater amplitude fluctuations during MIS 2 which is attributable to the variability of NE monsoon rainfall and associated river discharge into the Bay of Bengal in association with strong seasonal temperature contrast. On set of strengthening phase of SW monsoon was started during Bølling/Allerød as evidenced by the low δ¹⁸Osw values ～14.7 ka. δ¹⁸Osw show consistently lower values during Holocene (with an exception around 5 ka), which suggests that the freshening of Bay of Bengal due to heavy precipitation and river discharge caused by strong SW monsoon. Results of this study signify that the maximum fluctuations of the NE monsoon rainfall during MIS 2 appear to be controlled by the strong seasonality and boundary conditions.     

Simulation of marine boundary layer characteristics using a 1-D PBL model over the Bay of Bengal during BOBMEX-99

The characteristic features of the marine boundary layer (MBL) over the Bay of Bengal during the southwest monsoon and the factors influencing it are investigated. The Bay of Bengal and Monsoon Experiment (BOBMEX) carried out during July–August 1999 is the first observational experiment under the Indian Climate Research Programme (ICRP). A very high-resolution data in the vertical was obtained during this experiment, which was used to study the MBL characteristics off the east coast of India in the north and south Bay of Bengal. Spells of active and suppressed convection over the Bay were observed, of which, three representative convective episodes were considered for the study. For this purpose a one-dimensional multi-level PBL model with a TKE-ε closure scheme was used. The soundings, viz., the vertical profiles of temperature, humidity, zonal and meridional component of wind, obtained onboard ORV Sagar Kanya and from coastal stations along the east coast are used for the study. The temporal evolution of turbulent kinetic energy, marine boundary layer height (MBLH), sensible and latent heat fluxes and drag coefficient of momentum are simulated for different epochs of monsoon and monsoon depressions during BOBMEX-99.The model also generates the vertical profiles of potential temperature, specific humidity, zonal and meridional wind. These simulated values compared reasonably well with the observations available from BOBMEX.     

Indian monsoon variability during the last 46 kyr: isotopic records of planktic foraminifera from southwestern Bay of Bengal

The Indian monsoon carries large amounts of freshwater to the northern Indian Ocean and modulates the upper ocean structure in terms of upwelling and productivity. Freshwater-induced stratification in the upper ocean of the Bay of Bengal is linked to the changes in the Indian monsoon. In this study, we test the usefulness of δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C variability records for Globigerina bulloides and Orbulina universa to infer Indian monsoon variability from a sediment core retrieved from the southwestern Bay of Bengal encompassing the last 46 kyr record. Results show that the northeast monsoon was dominant during the Last Glacial Maximum. Remarkable signatures are observed in the δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C records during the Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 to MIS-1. Our study suggests that Indian monsoon variability is controlled by a complex of factors such as solar insolation, North Atlantic climatic shifts, and coupled ocean–atmospheric variability during the last 46 kyr.     

Simulation of barotropic wind-driven circulation in the upper layers of Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea during the southwest and northeast monsoon seasons using observed winds

A two-dimensional, nonlinear, vertically integrated model was used to simulate depth-mean wind-driven circulation in the upper Ekman layers of the Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea. The model resolution was one third of a degree in the latitude and longitude directions. Monthly mean wind stress components used to drive the model were obtained from the climatic monthly mean wind data compiled by Hastenrath and Lamb. A steady-state solution was obtained after numerical integration of the model for 15 days. The sensitivity of the model to two types of open boundary conditions, namely, a radiation type and clamped type, was tested. A comparison of simulated results for January with available ship drift data showed that the application of the latter along the open boundary could reproduce all the observed features near the boundary and the interior of the model domain. The model was integrated for 365 days to study the circulation during the southwest and northeast monsoon seasons. The model was successful in simulating the broad features of circulation including gyres and eddies observed during both the seasons, the development of north equatorial current during the northeast monsoon period and eastward moving monsoon drift current up to 90°E during the southwest monsoon season. During the latter season, two anticyclonic gyres were observed in the central and the southern parts of the Bay. A cyclonic type of circulation was prevalent in the central and western parts of the Bay of Bengal during the northeast monsoon months of November and December. The simulated western boundary current along the east coast of India, flows northward and southward during the southwest and northeast monsoon seasons respectively. It is presumed that this western boundary current, simulated during both the seasons, is locally wind-driven.     

Relationship between summer monsoon rainfall and cyclogenesis over Bay of Bengal during post-monsoon (October–December) season

In this study, an attempt has been made to examine the relationship between summer monsoon rainfall (June–September) and the total number of depressions, cyclones and severe cyclones (TNDC) over Bay of Bengal during the post-monsoon (October–December) season. The seasonal rainfall of the subdivisions (located in south India) (referred as rainfall index – RI), is positively and significantly correlated (r=0.59; significant at >99% level) with the TNDC during the period, 1984–2013. By using the first differences (current season minus previous season), the correlations are enhanced and a remarkably high correlation of 0.87 is observed between TNDC and RI for the recent period, 1993–2013. The average seasonal genesis potential parameter (GPP) showed a very high correlation of 0.84 with the TNDC. A very high correlation of 0.83 is observed between GPP and RI for the period, 1993–2013. The relative vorticity and mid-tropospheric relative humidity are found to be the dominant terms in GPP. The GPP was 3.5 times higher in above (below) normal RI in which TNDC was 4 (2). It is inferred that RI is playing a key role in TNDC by modulating the environmental conditions (low level vorticity and relative humidity) over Bay of Bengal during post-monsoon season which could be seen from the very high correlation of 0.87 (which explains 76% variability in TNDC). For the first time, we show that RI is a precursor for the TNDC over Bay of Bengal during post-monsoon season. Strong westerlies after the SW monsoon season transport moisture over the subdivisions towards Bay of Bengal due to cyclonic circulation. This circulation favours upward motion and hence transport moisture vertically to mid-troposphere which causes convective instability and this in turn favour more number of TNDC, under above-normal RI year.     

Meteorological fields variability over the Indian seas in pre and summer monsoon months during extreme monsoon seasons

In this study, the possible linkage between summer monsoon rainfall over India and surface meteorological fields (basic fields and heat budget components) over monsoon region (30‡E-120‡E, 30‡S30‡N) during the pre-monsoon month of May and summer monsoon season (June to September) are examined. For this purpose, monthly surface meteorological fields anomaly are analyzed for 42 years (1958-1999) using reanalysis data of NCEP/NCAR (National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research). The statistical significance of the anomaly (difference) between the surplus and deficient monsoon years in the surface meteorological fields are also examined by Student’s t-test at 95% confidence level. Significant negative anomalies of mean sea level pressure are observed over India, Arabian Sea and Arabian Peninsular in the pre-monsoon month of May and monsoon season. Significant positive anomalies in the zonal and meridional wind (at 2 m) in the month of May are observed in the west Arabian Sea off Somali coast and for monsoon season it is in the central Arabian Sea that extends up to Somalia. Significant positive anomalies of the surface temperature and air temperature (at 2 m) in the month of May are observed over north India and adjoining Pakistan and Afghanistan region. During monsoon season this region is replaced by significant negative anomalies. In the month of May, significant positive anomalies of cloud amount are observed over Somali coast, north Bay of Bengal and adjoining West Bengal and Bangladesh. During monsoon season, cloud amount shows positive anomalies over NW India and north Arabian Sea. There is overall reduction in the incoming shortwave radiation flux during surplus monsoon years. A higher magnitude of latent heat flux is also found in surplus monsoon years for the month of May as well as the monsoon season. The significant positive anomaly of latent heat flux in May, observed over southwest Arabian Sea, may be considered as an advance indicator of the possible behavior of the subsequent monsoon season. The distribution of net heat flux is predominantly negative over eastern Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and Indian Ocean. Anomaly between the two extreme monsoon years in post 1980 (i.e., 1988 and 1987) shows that shortwave flux, latent heat flux and net heat flux indicate reversal in sign, particularly in south Indian Ocean. Variations of the heat budget components over four smaller sectors of Indian seas, namely Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and west Indian Ocean and east Indian Ocean show that a small sector of Arabian Sea is most dominant during May and other sectors showing reversal in sign of latent heat flux during monsoon season.     

Temporal characteristics of the Indian southwest monsoon

In this study, we elucidate the temporal characteristics of the onset and withdrawal of the Indian southwest monsoon, making use of the model integration and daily analyses of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, India. The onset of the Indian southwest monsoon over the Bay of Bengal is discernable by a gradual increase in the adiabatic generation of kinetic energy, while over the Arabian Sea it is first noticeable by a steep and abrupt increase of generation. The horizontal transport of heat indicates a convergence regime over the Bay of Bengal prior to onset, while over the Arabian Sea a convergence regime is indicated by a change from the divergence to the convergence regime. The withdrawal of the southwest monsoon is characterized by the horizontal transport of heat and moisture that evince a transition from the convergence to divergence regime; similarly, diabatic heating noticed during the active period changes to cooling. The withdrawal over the Arabian Sea is characterized by the divergence regime of the horizontal transport of moisture. This change precedes even the circulation changes over northwest India, which may be regarded as a precursor. The withdrawal is further supported by a monotonic decrease in the net tropospheric moisture over the Arabian Sea, followed by a similar change at land locations.     

Bay of Bengal Monsoon Experiment (BOBMEX) — A component of the Indian Climate Research Programme (ICRP)

The Indian Climate Research Programme (ICRP) focuses on the study of climate variability and its impact on agriculture. To address the role of the Bay of Bengal in monsoon variability, a process study was organised during July–August 1999, deploying research ships, buoys, INSAT, coastal radar and conventional observational systems to collect information about the coupled ocean-atmosphere system over the warm waters of the Bay of Bengal. The paper gives the background of the ICRP and the organisation and implementation of the Bay of Bengal Monsoon Experiment (BOBMEX) in its field phase.     

Fluxes of material in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal — Sediment trap studies

In order to investigate how monsoons influence biogeochemical fluxes in the ocean, twelve time-series sediment traps were deployed at six locations in the northern Indian Ocean. In this paper we present particle flux data collected during May 1986 to November 1991 and November 1987 to November 1992 in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal respectively. Particle fluxes were high during both the SW and NE monsoons in the Arabian Sea as well as in the Bay of Bengal. The mechanisms of particle production and transport, however, differ in both the regions. In the Arabian Sea, average annual fluxes are over 50gm^-2y^-1 in the western Arabian Sea and less than 27gm^-2 y^-1 in the central part. Biogenic matter is dominant at sites located near upwelling centers, and is less degraded during peak flux periods. High particle fluxes in the offshore areas of the Arabian Sea are caused by injection of nutrients into the euphotic zone due to wind-induced mixed layer deepening. In the Bay of Bengal, average annual fluxes are highest in the central Bay of Bengal (over 50gm^-2y^-1) and are least in the southern part of the Bay (37gm^-2y^-1). Particle flux patterns coincide with freshwater discharge patterns of the Ganges-Brahmaputra river system. Opal/carbonate and organic carbon/carbonate carbon ratios increase during the SW monsoon due to variations in salinity and productivity patterns in the surface waters as a result of increased freshwater and nutrient input from rivers. Comparison of S years data show that fluxes of biogenic and lithogenic particulate matter are higher in the Bay of Bengal even though the Arabian Sea is considered to be more productive. Our results indicate that in the northern Indian Ocean interannual variability in organic carbon flux is directly related to the strength and intensity of the SW monsoon while its transfer from the upper layers to the deep sea is partly controlled by input of lithogenic matter from adjacent continents.     

Assessing the suitability of benthic foraminiferal morpho-groups to reconstruct paleomonsoon from Bay of Bengal

Temporal changes in benthic foraminiferal morpho-groups were suggested as an effective proxy to reconstruct past monsoon intensity from the Arabian Sea. Here, in order to test the applicability of temporal variation in morpho-groups to reconstruct past monsoon intensity from the Bay of Bengal, we have documented recent benthic foraminiferal distribution from the continental shelf region of the northwestern Bay of Bengal. Based on the external morphology, benthic foraminifera were categorized into rounded symmetrical (RSBF) and angular asymmetrical benthic foraminifera (AABF). Additionally, a few other dominant groups were also identified based on test composition (agglutinated, calcareous) and abundance (Asterorotalids and Nonions). The relative abundance of each group was compared with the ambient physico-chemical conditions, including dissolved oxygen, organic matter, salinity and temperature. We report that the RSBF are abundant in comparatively warm and well oxygenated waters of low salinity, suggesting a preference for high energy environment, whereas AABF dominate relatively cold, hypersaline deeper waters with low dissolved oxygen, indicating a low energy environment. The agglutinated foraminifera, Asterorotalids and Nonions dominate shallow water, low salinity regions, whereas the calcareous benthic foraminiferal abundance increases away from the riverine influx regions. Food availability, as estimated from organic carbon abundance in sediments, has comparatively less influence on faunal distribution in the northwestern Bay of Bengal, as compared to dissolved oxygen, temperature and salinity. We conclude that the factors associated with freshwater influx affect the distribution of benthic foraminiferal morpho-groups in the northwestern Bay of Bengal and thus it can be used to reconstruct past monsoon intensity from the Bay of Bengal.     

Storm surge modelling for the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea

Most of the countries around the North Indian Ocean are threatened by storm surges associated with severe tropical cyclones. The destruction due to the storm surge flooding is a serious concern along the coastal regions of India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Oman. Storm surges cause heavy loss of lives and property damage to the coastal structures and losses of agriculture which lead to annual economic losses in these countries. About 300,000 lives were lost in one of the most severe cyclones that hit Bangladesh (then East Pakistan) in November 1970. The Andhra Cyclone devastated part of the eastern coast of India, killing about 10,000 persons in November 1977. More recently, the Chittagong cyclone of April 1991 killed 140,000 people in Bangladesh, and the Orissa coast of India was struck by a severe cyclonic storm in October 1999, killing more than 15,000 people besides enormous loss to the property in the region. These and most of the world’s greatest natural disasters associated with the tropical cyclones have been directly attributed to storm surges. The main objective of this article is to highlight the recent developments in storm surge prediction in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea.     

Source of a freshwater influx at the last glacial maximum in the Indian Ocean: An alternative interpretation

Recent analysis of a sediment core in the eastern Arabian Sea revealed a negative pulse of about 1% in the δ¹⁸O value of the planktonic Foraminifera around the last glacial maximum (LGM). This pulse has been attributed to (i) increased runoff into the Bay of Bengal from the east-flowing south Indian rivers due to enhancement of the northeast winter monsoon, and (ii) an increase in Arabian sea-surface temperature caused by the weakening of the southwest monsoon at the LGM. We show that the speculation on which the latter hypothesis is based, is not supported by observational data and cannot fully account for the observed magnitude of the spike. With a view to assessing the validity of the first mechanism, we have modelled the mixed layer of the Bay of Bengal as a well-mixed box. The model calculations show that to account for the pulse requires a change of about 10% in either the annual rate of river input or its isotopic composition. For the northeast monsoon to account for the pulse it would mean that the rainfall should have increased by a factor of five to ten during the LGM. No evidence for such an increase is indicated in the available palaeoclimatic data. We explain the freshwater spike by invoking increased discharge of glacial meltwater from the Tibetan plateau into the Bay of Bengal. We show that the proxy climate data from the Indo-Tibetan region that has become available recently provides substantial evidence for the occurrence of a warming event around the LGM, which supports our mechanism.     

Some characteristics of very heavy rainfall over Orissa during summer monsoon season

Orissa is one of the most flood prone states of India. The floods in Orissa mostly occur during monsoon season due to very heavy rainfall caused by synoptic scale monsoon disturbances. Hence a study is undertaken to find out the characteristic features of very heavy rainfall (24 hours rainfall ≥125 mm) over Orissa during summer monsoon season (June–September) by analysing 20 years (1980–1999) daily rainfall data of different stations in Orissa. The principal objective of this study is to find out the role of synoptic scale monsoon disturbances in spatial and temporal variability of very heavy rainfall over Orissa. Most of the very heavy rainfall events occur in July and August. The region, extending from central part of coastal Orissa in the southeast towards Sambalpur district in the northwest, experiences higher frequency and higher intensity of very heavy rainfall with less interannual variability. It is due to the fact that most of the causative synoptic disturbances like low pressure systems (LPS) develop over northwest (NW) Bay of Bengal with minimum interannual variation and the monsoon trough extends in west-northwesterly direction from the centre of the system. The very heavy rainfall occurs more frequently with less interannual variability on the western side of Eastern Ghat during all the months and the season except September. It occurs more frequently with less interannual variability on the eastern side of Eastern Ghat during September. The NW Bay followed by Gangetic West Bengal/Orissa is the most favourable region of LPS to cause very heavy rainfall over different parts of Orissa except eastern side of Eastern Ghat. The NW Bay and west central (WC) Bay are equally favourable regions of LPS to cause very heavy rainfall over eastern side of Eastern Ghat. The frequency of very heavy rainfall does not show any significant trend in recent years over Orissa except some places in north-east Orissa which exhibit significant rising trend in all the monsoon months and the season as a whole.     

Palaeoceanographic implications of abundance and mean proloculus diameter of benthic foraminiferal speciesEpistominella exigua in sub-surface sediments from distal Bay of Bengal fan

Temporal variation in abundance and mean proloculus diameter of the benthic foraminiferal speciesEpistominella exigua has been reconstructed over the last ∼ 50,000 yr BP, from a core collected from the distal Bay of Bengal fan, to assess its potential application in palaeoceanographic reconstruction studies. The down-core variation shows significant change in abundance ofE. exigua during the last ∼ 50,000 yr BP. In view of the present day abundance of this species from areas with strong seasonal organic matter supply, we conclude that at ∼ 7, ∼ 22, ∼ 33 and ∼ 46kyr BP, strong seasonality prevailed in the distal Bay of Bengal fan, probably indicating either strong or prolonged north-east monsoon or weakened south-west monsoon. For the first time, a strong correlation is observed in abundance and mean proloculus diameter ofE. exigua. Based on coherent variation in mean proloculus diameter and abundance, it is postulated that mean proloculus diameter can also be used to infer increased seasonality in organic matter production, thus variation in strength or duration of monsoon. Thus, this study establishes that the down-core variation in the abundance and mean proloculus diameter ofEpistominella exigua can be used to infer past climatic variations from the distal Bay of Bengal fan.     

Field observation and numerical simulation of past and future storm surges in the Bay of Bengal: case study of cyclone Nargis

Natural Hazards - Storm surges are one of the most important risks to coastal communities around the Bay of Bengal, and it is feared that the threat they pose will increase with climate change in...     

Effect of estuarine flow on ocean circulation using a coupled coastal-bay estuarine model: an application to the 1999 Orissa cyclone

A coupled coastal-bay estuarine numerical model is described and applied to investigate the combination of wind-estuarine driven circulation off the Orissa coast. The model is based on coupling of a 2-dimensional estuarine model with a 3-dimensional coastal-bay model. The models are linked through the elevation at the interface. Using the coupled model, the numerical experiments are carried out to elicit the dynamical linking between the estuarine outflow and the coastal ocean to simulate the ensuing adjoining coastal circulation. During the southwest monsoon, it is noticed that the estuarine discharge from the northern head-bay river system and the river systems that join the Bay of Bengal along the Orissa coast would sufficiently modify the coastal circulation along the coast. Numerical experiments are also carried for the model simulation of surges generated by the 1999 Orissa cyclone. It is shown that the estuarine system would influence significantly on surge development and associated inundation through the rivers.     

Ocean-atmosphere interaction and synoptic weather conditions in association with the two contrasting phases of monsoon during BOBMEX-1999

Surface meteorological parameters acquired during the field phase experiment, BOBMEX-99, for the stationary periods (SP I and II) of the ship ORV Sagar Kanya over Bay of Bengal have been analysed. Active and weak monsoon conditions were observed during the first and the second phase of the experiment respectively over India as well as over the stationary ship location. The phase mean sea surface temperature (SST) is found to be the same in both the phases, however large differences have been observed in the phase mean values of wind speed, mean sea level pressure, latent heat and momentum fluxes at air-sea interface. Synoptic scale monsoon disturbances formed only during the period of strong north-south pressure gradient over the Bay region. Events of prominent fall in SST and in the upper 15 m ocean layer mean temperature and salinity values during typical rainfall events are cited. The impact of monsoon disturbances on ocean-atmosphere interface transfer processes has been investigated.