一种分析台风路径预报误差的新方法

台风路径预报误差应包括距离误差和方向误差两个方面,而在以往的业务应用和科学研究中偏向于只考虑对应时刻预报和观测位置点间的距离误差。本文对评估台风路径误差的方法进行了改进,在距离误差基础上建立了一种新的表征台风路径误差的方法——多因子误差法。本文以中国气象局整编的热带气旋最佳路径数据为标准,对2008和2009年中国气象局、美国台风联合预警中心和日本气象厅预报的西北太平洋热带气旋路径,采用新的表征热带气旋路径预报误差的多因子误差法进行分析,并与普遍采用的距离误差法进行对比,结果表明:多因子误差分析方法和距离误差分析方法存在比较明显的差异,多因子误差法优势比较明显。本文是对更科学的台风路径预报误差评定方法的有益探索,有一定的参考价值。     

Pliocene calcium carbonate sedimentation patterns of the Ontong Java Plateau: ODP Sites 804 and 806

Two deep-sea cores from the northeastern slope of the Ontong Java Plateau, Ocean Drilling Program Site 806 (2520 mbsl) and Site 804 (3861 mbsl), has been studied with the purpose of investigating Pliocene (Site 806, 2.4–3.8 Ma; Site 804, 1.8–4.4 Ma) sub- and supralysoclinal changes in calcium carbonate accumulation, based on CaCO₃, coarse-fraction and faunal data. At the shallower site, Site 806, there is a slight decrease in carbonate content and a distinct long-term trend in decreasing accumulation rate throughout the studied interval. Small-scale changes in density, hence accumulation rate, are related to grain-size changes due to winnowing at this site, but the overall pattern of decreasing carbonate accumulation seems to be the result of both winnowing and a decrease in productivity. The deeper site, Site 804, exhibits a general increase in carbonate content after about 3.15 Ma as well as a long-term increase in mass accumulation rate throughout the Pliocene interval studied. Detailed comparison of the records of density and carbonate content emphasizes the strong relationship between carbonate content and accumulation rate at this site. The observed pattern of decreasing accumulation rate at shallow depth parallel to enhanced preservation at greater depths may be explained by a decrease in the production of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW). A reduction of the volume of NADW pumped into the Pacific would reduce the supply of nutrients and deep-water CO₂. This could account for both the decrease in accumulation rate at the shallower site, due to decreased productivity, and the enhanced preservation at the deeper site, due to a decrease in the corrosiveness of deep waters.     

Facies and geometry of tidal channel-fill deposits (Arcachon Lagoon, SW France)

The Arcachon Lagoon has an important network of tidal channels and well developed tidal flats covered by the marine grass Zostera marina. Based on 66 piston cores taken from the Graveyron tidal channel, and observations on the neighbouring channels, this paper documents the facies and geometry of the channel-fill deposits. In the inner lagoon (studied area) the tidal channels are 80 to 150 m wide and have a meandering morphology with sandy point bars 2 to 5 m thick. The channel-fill does not consist of the classic inclined heterolithic bedding typical of many channel-fills (Reineck, 1958), but of cross-stratified sandy deposits characterized by the absence of slack-water clay-drapes. These unusual facies characteristics are due to the low turbidity of the lagoonal waters which is caused by the lack of significant river inflow and the dense coverage of Zostera marina on the tidal flats. The overall geometry of the channel-fill deposits is characterized by a narrow sand-ribbon shape, a few kilometres long, 80 to 150 m wide and 1 to 5 m thick. This sand ribbon is made of elliptical sand bodies, deposited as point bars, that coalesce longitudinally along the channel axis. This narrow shape is due to the fact that the lateral migration of the channel is virtually nil (reduced to a few metres). In spite of their characteristic meandering morphology, these channels do not deposit extensive tabular sand sheets of amalgamated point bars like the tidal creeks on the North Sea tidal flats. Two factors are thought to control this lack of channel migration. (1) The tidal flats adjacent to the tidal channels are made of 3- to 5-m-thick cohesive muddy sediments covered by Zostera marina that prevents the erosion of the channel banks. This first mechanism is supported by the observation that the tidal creeks that drain the muddy tidal flats covered by Zostera marina do not migrate laterally, whereas those that drain the sandy tidal flats devoid of a dense coverage of marine grass do have active lateral migration. (2) The tidal channels are not fed by any river and therefore do not receive any fluvial sand influx during the winter floods. Their morphology is in equilibrium with the tidal discharge and represents a stable stage in the development of the channel. This second mechanism is supported by the fact that the only tidal channels that actively migrate laterally in the lagoon receive sandy fluvial influx from the River Leyre located in the southeastern corner of the lagoon.     

Facies and architecture of an estuarine tidal bar (the Trompeloup bar, Gironde Estuary, SW France)

This study describes the sedimentary facies and internal architecture of a modern estuarine tidal bar present in the bay-head delta of a wave- and tide-dominated estuary, the Gironde Estuary, in southwest France. Based on 51 cores (2 to 5 m long), this work demonstrates that such bars are composite sedimentary bodies made up of individual sigmoidal sand units isolated from one another by thick muddy layers. The bar appeared in the study area around 1874. Since then, its evolution has been characterized by phases of rapid downstream bar migration alternating with periods of bar abandonment. During the periods of active bar progradation, which commonly last between 10 and 20 years, the bar progrades up to 7 km seaward and forms a narrow (200–800 m wide) sand ridge up to 6 m thick. During abandonment phases which also last around 10–20 years, the bar is starved of sand and a mud layer (1 to 3 m thick) is deposited. The vertical succession formed by the seaward progradation of the tidal bar records these alternating phases of growth and abandonment. A typical vertical succession in the bar system is 8 m thick and comprises several superimposed, upward-coarsening units of cross-stratified sand, deposited during phases of seaward progradation, separated by a thick layer of thinner-bedded mud and sand laminae deposited during phases of bar abandonment. When a tidal bar builds up to the supratidal zone, marshes accumulate and the bar becomes a permanent island in the estuary. The large-scale architecture of the bar is thus made of an alternation of potential sandy reservoir units and muddy internal seals. The reservoir units are characterized by a sigmoidal shape. The muddy layer, which is deposited between the two sigmoidal units, is a thick, continuous potential internal seal. This complex internal architecture is due to the fact that there is a considerable amount of mud present in the bay-head delta of the Gironde Estuary. It is thought to be representative of the architecture of tidal bars in the inner part of wave- and tide-dominated estuaries.     

Determination of the distribution of dissolved organic carbon in the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean

During France JGOFS campaign ANTARES 2 (R.V. Marion Dufresne), samples were taken along a section of the 62°E meridian from 49° to 66°S. The high temperature catalytic oxidation (HTCO) method was used to determine the concentration of dissolved organic carbon (DOC). The analyses were conducted both on-board ship and after the cruise in the laboratory. Collecting and storing acidified samples for post-cruise analysis induced no significant differences. The use of two separate but identical channels on the carbon analyzer increased the number of samples analysed per day and allowed independent monitoring of the instrument blank and the calibration of the detector response. The mixed layer concentrations of organic carbon varied from about 52 μM C in the Antarctic Divergence (64°S) to about 63 μM C in the Polar Frontal Zone (49°S). Vertical profiles showed a slight, but significant, decrease in organic carbon below the mixed layer, to about 42 μM C below 2000 m across the transect. The homogeneity and low concentration of organic carbon in deep water is consistent with values recently reported for the equatorial Atlantic and Pacific Ocean and supports the evidence for a constant deep water DOC concentration. In addition, this provides a verification of the instrument performance, thus validating observed DOC data trends and allowing a comparison with the ‘modern' DOC literature. In general, the organic carbon concentration in the mixed layer was lower than previously published data of the main ocean basins, which might -reflect the low chlorophyll a concentration (<0.5 μg/l) encountered in this region. Along the 62°E meridian section, organic carbon showed a trend with corresponding measurements of phytoplankton biomass and bacterial production, underlining the dependence of bacterial growth on a pool of ‘freshly' produced DOC. Organic carbon was found to exhibit a weak inverse trend versus apparent oxygen utilization (AOU). This suggests that only a small part of the oxygen consumption is due to the mineralisation of DOC.     

Rapid and precise measurement method for adsorbed

Estimates have been made of the suspended sand transport at two sites on the Middelkerke Bank, in the southern North Sea, from suspended sand profiles and current meter measurements over a period of approximately 40 days. Sand resuspension was mainly due to waves while transport was dominated by a few hours when large waves coincided with peak flood currents. Soulsby's relationships for the stress under combined currents and waves were found to be poor predictors for the observed near-bed concentrations; the mean stress, , predicting 45% of the variance while the maximum stress, , predicted just 15%, and overestimate the effects of the waves. When the influence of the stress due to the waves is reduced, the variance explained increases to 67%. The sand transport rate on the steep slope of the bank was 10 times that of the southern end, and was up-slope at 25° to the bank axis, in the direction of the major axis of the tidal ellipse. The transport on the steep slope was mainly in the size range 100–140 μm which did not occur in any significant proportion in samples of the sea bed at that site but was advected from deeper water to the southeast. Excluding this finer component the transport rates of coarser sand (>200 μm) at the two sites were similar over the 40-day period. The up-slope transport during storms suggests that waves play an important part in the bank maintenance and are not simply the mechanism which prevents the continual growth of the sand bank due to asymmetrical transport by the tidal currents alone. The transport rates are consistent with a time-scale of 10²–10³ years for the formation of the Middelkerke Bank.     

Sand suspension and transport on the Middelkerke Bank (southern North Sea) by storms and tidal currents

Estimates have been made of the suspended sand transport at two sites on the Middelkerke Bank, in the southern North Sea, from suspended sand profiles and current meter measurements over a period of approximately 40 days. Sand resuspension was mainly due to waves while transport was dominated by a few hours when large waves coincided with peak flood currents. Soulsby's relationships for the stress under combined currents and waves were found to be poor predictors for the observed near-bed concentrations; the mean stress, , predicting 45% of the variance while the maximum stress, , predicted just 15%, and overestimate the effects of the waves. When the influence of the stress due to the waves is reduced, the variance explained increases to 67%. The sand transport rate on the steep slope of the bank was 10 times that of the southern end, and was up-slope at 25° to the bank axis, in the direction of the major axis of the tidal ellipse. The transport on the steep slope was mainly in the size range 100–140 μm which did not occur in any significant proportion in samples of the sea bed at that site but was advected from deeper water to the southeast. Excluding this finer component the transport rates of coarser sand (>200 μm) at the two sites were similar over the 40-day period. The up-slope transport during storms suggests that waves play an important part in the bank maintenance and are not simply the mechanism which prevents the continual growth of the sand bank due to asymmetrical transport by the tidal currents alone. The transport rates are consistent with a time-scale of 10²–10³ years for the formation of the Middelkerke Bank.     

Estimating global shelf sediment mobility due to swell waves

Global climate models (GCMs), such as those produced at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), generate data that are relevant to the study of marine sedimentary processes. We used estimates of significant wave height and period, derived from an ECMWF GCM, to predict for the first time the area of continental shelves over which sediment is mobilised. The wave climatology was such that 0.1 mm diameter quartz sand had the potential to be mobilised on at least one occasion between July 1992 and July 1995 over 41.6% of the earth's continental shelves. The North Atlantic region has the most energetic global wave climate, strong enough to mobilise 0.1 mm diameter quartz sand to water depths of up to 234 m at least once over a 3-year period.     

Medium-term sedimentation on high intertidal mudflats and salt marshes in the Severn Estuary, SW Britain: the role of wind and tide

Six sites monitored monthly on salt marshes and mudflats in the middle and outer Severn Estuary gave potentially predictive–retrodictive relationships between the vertical response of the sedimentary surface (erosion/accretion), a factor reflecting tidal heights, and the wind-wave power-supply. The continuing rise of relative sea level in the area, at the rate of a few millimetres annually, is providing accommodation space at a pace low enough to permit the continuing vertical build-up of the salt marshes throughout the estuary. On the mudflats, wind and tidal conditions during the survey maintained an accretionary regime in the middle estuary but an erosional one in the outer part. The Severn Estuary is a system in delicate balance which is likely to respond dramatically to modest changes in the tidal and/or wind regimes.     

Mobile deltaic and continental shelf muds as suboxic, fluidized bed reactors

The oft-cited general correlation between net sediment accumulation and preservation of organic matter, while revealing in many ways, can be a misleading indicator of general elemental cycling processes and controls on storage of biogenic material at the continental-ocean boundary. Deltaic environments are characterized by the highest rates of net sedimentation and are the single most important class of depocenters on Earth. Available data indicate that sedimentary organic C (C_org) of both terrestrial and marine origin is efficiently decomposed in deltaic areas, with decomposition percentages reaching ≥70% and ≥90%, respectively, the latter percentage (marine) being quite comparable to deep-sea, low sedimentation environments. Despite high primary productivity associated with most deltas and evidence of substantial deposition of fresh planktonic debris, patterns of SO₄⁼ reduction indicate that the reactivity of organic material being buried is low, and that a larger proportion of C_org is often degraded compared to other marine deposits of similar net accumulation rate. As indicated by properties of the surficial Amazon delta and downdrift coastal region of northeast South America (1600-km extent), the primary reasons for efficient remineralization are related to intense and massive physical reworking of sediment associated with estuarine fronts, upwelling, tidal oscillation, and wind-driven waves. Fluid muds and mobile surface material cause the seafloor and continental boundary to act as a massive, suboxic, fluidized bed reactor dominated in some cases by bacterial rather than macrofaunal biomass. Reoxidation, repetitive redox successions, metabolite exchange, and continual mixing-in of fresh planktonic debris with refractory terrestrial components, result in an efficient decomposition system largely decoupled from net accumulation. Similar processes occur on smaller scales in most estuarine-shelf systems, but appear to be most dramatically expressed off the major rivers forming deltas.     

Comparison of pelagic and nepheloid layer marine snow: implications for carbon cycling

Marine snow from upper and mid-water (i.e., pelagic) depths on the California margin is texturally and compositionally different from that traveling in the nepheloid layer. Transmission electron microscopy shows that pelagic marine snow consists primarily of bioclasts (e.g., diatom frustules, foram tests), organic matter, and microbes. These components are entrained as discrete particles or small aggregates μm in diameter) in a loose network of exocellular, muco-polysaccharide material. Clays are infrequent but, when present, are constituents of comparatively compact organic-rich microaggregates. Microbes are abundant and appear to decrease in number with increasing water depth. In contrast, marine snow aggregates collected from just above the sea floor in the nepheloid layer are assemblages of clay particles, clay flocs, and relatively dense clay–organic-rich microaggregates in an exocellular organic matrix. Bioclasts and microorganisms occur only rarely. The prevalence of clay–organic-rich aggregates in the nepheloid layer suggests that, prior to final deposition and burial, marine snow from the pelagic zone is subject to disaggregation and recombination with terrigenous detrital material near or at the sea floor. Results have significant implications for the accumulation and burial rates of organic carbon on continental margins and the aging and bioavailability of sedimentary organic matter. Samples examined were collected offshore of northern and central California.     

Seafloor gravity evidence for hydrothermal alteration of the sediments in Middle Valley, Juan de Fuca Ridge

Gravity data collected at two different levels, sea-surface and seafloor, are compared and interpreted to characterize the effect of hydrothermal circulation on the sediment density in Middle Valley, a deeply sedimented spreading center on the Juan de Fuca Ridge. The sea-surface gravity data constrain density variations at depth beneath the seafloor, whereas sea-bottom measurements are more sensitive to shallow sources. At least two different types of hydrothermal signatures in the sediments can be distinguished from the gravity data: short-wavelength anomalies associated with sulfide deposits and broader anomalies associated with areas of lithified sediments. In Middle Valley, three distinct gravity anomalies were identified. (a) An anomaly over a sulfide mound, south of Bent Hill, shows that the sulfide body extends to depths of 120 to 180 m and has been fed by several near-surface conduits. (b) An anomaly at the base of the fault bordering the valley to the east is interpreted as a regional anomaly combined with the local effect of lithified sediments and possibly sulfide deposits. (c) An anomaly paralleling an intra-valley fault, that limits the deepest part of the graben, is interpreted as indicating lithification of the upper sediment layer. A high heat flow anomaly is located 1 to 2 km east of this fault, suggesting that sediment lithification occurred in a wide band above the fault and eastward to the current high heat flow area, due to the progressive migration of the hot fluid circulation.     

Historical record of heavy metals in a highly contaminated Mediterranean deposit: The Besòs prodelta

The Besòs prodelta, located around a highly populated area, receives the discharge of the Besòs River, one of the most contaminated rivers discharging into the Mediterranean sea. The record of heavy metals accumulated in this prodelta is studied to assess the sedimentary behaviour and the history of the anthropogenic heavy metals in the area.

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dated sediments have allowed the identification of the sedimentation patterns and the elaboration of dated heavy metals and cenospheres profiles, which reflected the evolution of the anthropogenic impact in this marine environment. Sediments accumulated during the 18th and 19th centuries were already affected by a moderate heavy metal contamination. This contamination increased drastically in the sediments accumulated during the last decades. This data is well correlated with the increase in industrialisation, population and energy consumption in the Besòs drainage basin during the last century.     

Sea-level and subsidence data from a Late Holocene back-barrier lagoon (Valle Standiana, Ravenna, Italy)

Late Holocene back-barrier sediments have been studied in a former lagoon reclaimed during the last century. Several shallow boreholes were cored, from which nine organic-rich samples were selected for radiocarbon dating, and others for palynological and palaeontological analysis. This enabled the reconstruction of the evolution of a back-barrier coastal basin during the late Holocene coastline progradation. Since late Roman times, the rate of relative sea-level rise (RSLR) has increased from 1.1 mm/yr to over 2 mm/yr, even after removal of the main human impacts during of the last century. This change is ascribed to sediment compaction related to changes in the hydrological regime, and possibly to an isostatic subsidence wave accompanying the northward shift of the Po Delta during the last 2000 years.     

Particle–water interactions of 2,2′,5,5′-tetrachlorobiphenyl under simulated estuarine conditions

A batch sorption technique for the determination of particle–water interactions of hydrophobic organic micropollutants under simulated estuarine conditions is described. Results are presented for the behaviour of 2,2′,5,5′-tetrachlorobiphenyl (2,2′,5,5′-TCB) in river and sea waters, both in the presence and absence of estuarine suspended particles. Adsorption onto particles in sea water was enhanced compared with adsorption in river water owing to salting out of the compound, and possibly of the particulate organic matter, in the presence of high concentrations of dissolved ions. The particle–water distribution coefficient, K_D, decreased from about 120×10³ to 10×10³ ml g⁻¹, and from about 150×10³ to 20×10³ ml g⁻¹, in river water and sea water, respectively, over a particle concentration range of 10–1000 mg l⁻¹. Incomplete recovery of compound from the reactor walls is partly responsible for a particle concentration effect, while artefacts relating to inadequate sediment and water phase separation were ruled out following further experiments. The particle concentration effect, which is replicated in many field studies of hydrophobic organic micropollutants, including 2,2′,5,5′-TCB, is incorporated into a simple partitioning model and is discussed in the context of the likely estuarine behaviour of such compounds.     

Responses of marine phytoplankton in iron enrichment experiments in the northern North Sea and northeast Atlantic Ocean

Short-term iron enrichment experiments were carried out with samples collected in areas with different phytoplankton activity in the northern North Sea and northeast Atlantic Ocean in the summer of 1993. The research area was dominated by high numbers of pico-phytoplankton, up to 70,000 ml⁻¹. Maximum chlorophyll a concentrations varied from about 1.0 μg l⁻¹ in a high-reflectance zone (caused by loose coccoliths, remnants from a bloom of Emiliania huxleyi) and about 3.5 μg l⁻¹ in a zone in which the phytoplankton were growing, to about 0.5 μg l⁻¹ in the northeast Atlantic Ocean. From the high-reflectance zone to the northeast Atlantic Ocean, nitrate concentrations increased from 0.5 μM to 6.0 μM. Concentrations of reactive iron in surface water showed an opposite trend and decreased from about 2.6 nM in the high-reflectance zone to <1.0 nM in the northeast Atlantic Ocean. In the research area, no signs of true iron deficiency were found, but iron enrichments in the high-reflectance zone, numerically dominated by Synechococcus sp., resulted in increased nitrate uptake. Ammonium uptake was hardly affected. Strong support for the effect of Fe on cell physiology is given by the increase in the f-ratio. Net growth rates of the phytoplankton (changes in cell numbers over 24 h) were almost unchanged. Phytoplankton collected from the northeast Atlantic Ocean, did not show changes in the nitrogen metabolism upon addition of iron. Net growth rates in these incubations were low or negative, with only slightly higher values with additional iron.     

GNSS船姿测量方法及对多波束测深精度的影响分析

GNSS船姿测量以其观测误差不随时间累积的特点得到了广泛研究和应用,本文基于三天线GNSS船姿测量方式,构建了波束脚印误差与姿态误差间的关系模型,设计仿真实验分析了基线长度对姿态误差的影响,以及不同水深环境下姿态误差与GNSS定位误差的关系。为突破传统RTK在测量距离上的限制,本文采用PPP、PPK、MBD (动态参考站差分)三种方法进行GNSS船姿计算,并通过海上实验与高精度惯性导航系统进行对比分析,结果表明使用MBD测姿结果要优于PPK和PPP模式,得到的航偏角、横摇角、纵摇角标准差均在0.1°左右,可满足通常情况下多波束测深对姿态精度的要求。     

多波束测深边缘波束误差的综合校正

边缘波束误差是影响多波束测深数据精度的主要因素,数据精度影响其可信度和使用范围,也是进行相关研究的基础.多波束勘测系统声呐参数的精确校正、勘测区声场模型的建立以及实时勘测海洋噪声的合理剔除是影响边缘波束数据质量的关键因素,严重时甚至导致勘测数据出现沿测线方向的条带状假地形或地形位置偏移.上述因素对多波束勘测数据的影响是一个综合作用的过程,靠单一的校正或编辑方法很难提高采集数据的精度.以多波束勘测原理和声学理论为指导,以多波束实测数据为研究基础和分析对象,运用GIS面向对象方法,全面分析造成多波束勘测大误差边缘波束的原因,并探寻改善已勘测多波束大误差数据、提高数据精度的综合处理方法,最终以可视化的方式实现人机交互处理.该项研究成果已初步应用于海洋项目总图编绘工作,并取得了预期效果.     

基于网络坐标的地理信息系统

确定网络节点位置是互联网中一种重要的应用服务。目前主流的确定网络节点位置的系统都不易获取且不具有实时性,给出的节点位置不够准确。提出1种基于网络坐标的节点地理位置预测系统,利用少数地标节点的位置信息,并结合相应的网络坐标,对网络当中任意节点的地理位置进行实时地预测。通过在Internet网络当中开展实验,进一步验证了该系统的可行性和准确性。结果表明,在实验开展的范围内,系统能够准确的预测节点的地理位置。