Seismicity Characterization of Iran: A Multivariate Statistical Approach

This paper presents the results of two multivariate analysis techniques—principal component and cluster analysis—as they are applied to the seismicity characterization of Iran. The seismic data used in this study covers a period of 50 years, from the beginning of 1957 to the end of 2006. The values of eight seismic variables were calculated on a grid of equally spaced points at one geographic degree spacing in both latitude and longitude. The data matrix was analyzed using principal component and cluster analysis. Principal component analysis identified two significant components, introduced in this study as the Seismic Frequency Index (SFI) and the Seismic Severity Index (SSI), responsible for the data structure. The SFI and SSI explain 34.34 % and 32.33 % of the total variance of the data set, respectively, and allowed grouping of the selected variables according to their common features. The standardized data matrix was analyzed using Ward’s clustering method. The resulting seismicity pattern recognition maps of the region at three levels of similarity are presented. From these maps, differentiated seismic zones are outlined in detail and compared quantitatively. Comparison between the seismic zoning maps obtained in this analysis and the general tectonic map of the region indicates that the seismic zones are consistent with the tectonic zones of the region. This study presents the necessity and usefulness of multivariate analysis in evaluating and interpreting seismic data catalogues with the goal of obtaining more objective information about the seismicity pattern of regions.     

多元统计分析在矿井断层预测中的应用

矿井小构造预测是一个难度极大的研究课题,根据岩层厚度、岩层组合关系,运用判别分析、地质统计学等数学方法预测矿井小构造,是一种全新的思想方法。本次研究选取我国西部某一煤矿作为研究对象,研究主采煤层上下岩性变化特征,根据岩石的不同抗压强度,确定五个变量;将已采区的钻孔分为含有断层的钻孔和不含有断层的钻孔,统计这两类钻孔中五个变量的值,建立判别函数,对未采区的钻孔进行判别分类。对每个钻孔的岩层在可采煤层的上下划分成10个层段,判别出每个层段中未知钻孔的归属,从而得到钻孔属于有断层的概率,即断层分布的概率等值线图。经实例验证,精确度达70%以上,对生产矿井具有一定经济效益和实用价值。     

Micro‐PIXE Geochemical Fingerprinting of Nephrite Neolithic Artifacts from Southwest Bulgaria

Neolithic artifacts made of nephrite, □Ca₂(Fe,Mg)₅Si₈O₂₂(OH)_2, are found at prehistoric settlements in Bulgaria. This study investigates these objects based on particle induced X‐ray emission using a scanning nuclear microprobe (micro‐PIXE technique). Seven nephrite artifacts from the Neolithic sites of Kovachevo, Bulgarchevo and Galabnik in southwest Bulgaria were analyzed to quantify their composition and to establish if a correlation exists between the distribution of major and trace elements, color, impurities, and texture. The nephrite artifacts are tremolite in composition, with a proposed ultrabasic origin. Based on the geochemical data obtained by micro‐PIXE, we divide the artifacts into Group 1 objects from the Kovachevo site and Group 2 objects from the Galabnik and Bulgarchevo sites. The analytical data and microprobe analyses are compared with geochemical data of nephrite from across the globe. The results are in a good agreement with previous electron microprobe and electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectroscopy data. Our study provides a better understanding of the mineralogy and geochemistry of nephrite artifacts and helps to address questions regarding origin and the distribution of such materials in Bulgaria and other Balkan countries.     

岩性识别的多元统计方法

识别地层岩性是在地层对比,沉积相分析等地质研究中的重要任务,在岩心资源较少,测井资料较多的情况下,利用多元统计分析进行地层岩性识别则是一种有效方法,为此,本文在胜利油田永一沙田砾岩体实际资料的基础上,通过取心井岩心和相应测井曲线的对应特征分析,应用判别分析方法,挑选了对岩性识别能力强的测井参数,确定了相应的岩性识别函数,利用该函数可以快速反应不同深度点上的地层岩性,并绘制相应的岩性剖面图等,为进一     

Multivariate Analysis Methods Based Methodology for Rock Microcracking Characterization

The quality control of aggregates lies within the scope of the management of the quality and durability of construction materials. Although it is evaluated as additional cost, it makes possible to optimize the resistance of construction materials. This paper aims at developing an easy classification procedure of qualification and control of the aggregates. This methodology is based on (1) the constitution of an experimental database based on the measurement of ultrasonic parameters and water porosity determined by water saturation under vacuum conditions on samples coming from the two quarries chosen for the study: the quarry of Aïn Tebournouk (Tunisia) and the quarry of Boulonnais (France) (2) the application of the multivariable statistical methods on the database. The methodology developed makes possible not only to characterize the direct relations between the parameters studied, but also to classify the samples into two distinct groups corresponding to the two quarries studied using the principal component analysis and the cluster analysis.     

Las Cargas: Characterization and Prehistoric Use of a Southern Andean Obsidian Source

The importance of obsidian from the northern Patagonian source at Las Cargas is reflected in its early use (∼8000 years B.P.) and extensive geographic diffusion but is nonetheless surprising in light of the source's high altitude (located in the Andes Cordillera), which makes it both difficult to access under ideal conditions and inaccessible for much of the year. Prehistoric use of the Las Cargas source can inform us about mobility, subsistence choices, economics of stone consumption, trade, and territoriality. Here we present the results of various lines of evidence (surface survey, X‐ray fluorescence and instrumental neutron activation analyses, artifact morphometry, and obsidian hydration dating) used to characterize obsidian from Las Cargas and its prehistoric use during the Holocene. Results indicate that Las Cargas obsidian occurs at the source as blocks and nodules, which are chemically homogeneous and of variable quality. Use of the source was nearly continuous through time, and the primary knapping activities performed there were the production of blanks and preparation of cores.     

Obsidian Subsource Identification in the Sierra de Pachuca and Otumba Volcanic Regions,Central Mexico,by ICP‐MS and DBSCAN Statistical Analysis

Otumba and Sierra de Pachuca obsidian deposits in Central Mexico have been important sources of raw material since pre‐Hispanic times. Numerous archaeological investigations have suggested that the economical and political expansion of major Mesoamerican societies were linked to the control of obsidian sources and distribution of quarried material. Sierra de Pachuca contains several obsidian flows and numerous quarries throughout the region that were preferentially exploited by different cultures. The Otumba Volcanic Complex has four important obsidian domes, but three of them have not been studied in detail. A geochemical characterization of subsources from the Sierra de Pachuca and Otumba Volcanic Complex is an important step toward future sourcing of obsidian artifacts that would help provide insight into spheres of influence and trade by past cultures in Central Mexico. Having this purpose in mind, inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP‐MS) was used to analyze obsidian samples collected from five separated locations at Sierra de Pachuca and four at Otumba, followed by statistical analysis (density‐based spatial clustering of applications with noise, DBSCAN). We were able to distinguish three chemically distinctive subsources in Sierra de Pachuca and three in Otumba. This study illustrates the importance of accurate characterization of obsidian raw material when attempting to define subsource usage.     

Trace Element Analysis of Fused Whole-Rock Glasses by Laser Ablation-ICP-MS and PIXE

The concentrations of fifty trace elements, including relatively volatile elements and transition metal elements, in fused glasses of Geological Survey of Japan rock reference materials GSJ JR-2, JA-1, JA-2, JB-1a, JB-3, JGb-1 and JF-1 were determined by particle (proton) induced X-ray emission (PIXE) and laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS). The fused glasses were prepared by rapid fusion and subsequent quenching in welded platinum capsules and were found to be homogeneous for major elements and for trace elements with concentrations of more than 1 μg g^-1 within the observed precision (± 10% mean) on a 70 μm sampling scale. The values obtained by PIXE and LA-ICP-MS for the transition elements (Cr, Mn, Fe, Ni and Cu), the relatively volatile elements (Zn, Ga, Rb and Pb) and the refractory elements (Y, Zr, Nb and Th) with concentrations greater than a few μg g^-1 showed good agreement (within 10 % relative difference). The values for almost all the elements detected at concentrations higher than 1 μg g^-1 as determined by LA-ICP-MS also agreed well with the reference values (mean relative difference < ± 10%), except for B and Cu. The good agreement confirmed the appropriateness of the NIST SRM 600 series glass calibration reference material for LA-ICP-MS analysis of glasses with variable major-element compositions for almost all elements. The concentrations of Cu in all the samples were lower than the reference values, which was attributed to adsorption of the transition metals onto the platinum capsule during preparation.     

基于典型饱水砂岩样品的多维空间多元统计密度反演方法

实测数据资料、岩石物理学和多维空间多元统计思想的结合,有助于定量解析数据,减少岩石骨架、流体信息预测的风险性。运用典型饱水砂岩样品(韩德华G组砂岩样品)的密度、黏土含量和孔隙度实测数据,反演石英、黏土和流体的密度,所得反演结果符合实际情况,得到的拟合密度与实测密度相关系数可达0.985 5。所提出的密度反演方法的核心是多维空间多元统计思想与质量守恒定律相结合;与传统二维空间二元回归的密度反演方法对比结果表明,该方法不仅可以避免回归运算中奇异点的影响,而且得到的拟合密度与实测密度呈更为显著的相关关系。反演结果的均值与实际值相对误差在2%左右,准确度高,证明了方法的合理有效性。     

基于多元统计的相山铀矿田微量元素地球化学特征分析

通过对相山铀矿田微量元素进行判别分析、Q聚类分析和R型分析,表明围岩与矿石之间的关系较远,U、Th、Pb、Li、Rb、Sr、Ba、Zr、Y、Mo、Zn、P、Ti可将岩石划分为围岩、蚀变岩石和矿石三类。矿物学特征研究表明,铀矿化分为早期的钛铀矿-磷灰石矿化与晚期的铀石-硫化物-方解石矿化两期矿化。结合以上两个方面,相山铀矿田的成矿物质来源与围岩无直接关系,成矿的热液系统分为高温热液系统和低温热液系统。     

Landslide Susceptibility Zoning North of Yenice (NW Turkey) by Multivariate Statistical Techniques

Dramatic effects resulting from landslides on human life and economy of many nations are observed sometimes throughout the world. Landslide inventory and susceptibility mapping studies are accepted as the first stage of landslide hazard mitigation efforts. Generally, these landslide inventory studies include identification and location of landslides. The main benefit is to provide a basis for statistical susceptibility zoning studies. In the present study, a landslide susceptibility zoning near Yenice (NW Turkey) is carried out using the factor analysis approach. The study area is approximately 64 km² and 57 landslides were identified in this area. The area is covered completely by Ulus Formation that has a flysh-like character. Slope angle, elevation, slope aspect, land-use, weathering depth and water conditions were considered as the main conditioning factors while the heavy precipitation is the main trigger for landsliding. According to the results of factor analysis, the importance weights for slope angle, land-use, elevation, dip direction, water conditions and weathering depth were determined as 45.2%, 22.4%, 12.5%, 8.8%, 8.1% and 3.0% respectively. Also, using these weights and the membership values of each conditioning factor, the membership value for landslide susceptibility was introduced. In the study area, the lowest membership value for landslide susceptibility was calculated as 0.20. Consequently, combining all results, a landslide susceptibility map was obtained. Compared with the obtained map, a great majority of the landslides (86 %) identified in the field were found to be located in susceptible and highly susceptible zones.     

利用测井数据进行岩性识别的多元统计方法

在中国大陆科学钻探CCSD-1井110～2 000 m井段实测资料的基础上,通过取芯井岩芯和相应测井曲线对应特征的分析,挑选出对岩性识别能力强的测井参数,应用多组判别分析方法,建立了研究区各类岩性的识别模型.应用该模型可对井剖面地层进行连续自动解释,获得整口井的岩性解释剖面图,为进一步的地质研究提供基础资料.最后将得出的结果与分层资料进行误差分析,以判断资料的可靠性和方法的实用性.     

Copula函数在多变量水文分析计算中的应用及研究进展

综述了多变量水文分析计算方法及存在的问题.系统地介绍了Copula函数的基本理论与方法,分析探讨Copula函数在多变量水文计算领域的适用性及优越性.总结了Copula函数应用的关键技术,包括参数估计、拟合检验及类型选择等,并展望了Copula函数的研究应用前景.     

长江三角洲第一硬质黏土层粒度多元统计分析及沉积环境判别

长江三角洲第一硬质黏土层成因是长期争论的问题。对上海市青浦区第一硬质黏土层全样粒度多元统计分析,并与南京周家山下蜀黄土、长江悬浮颗粒物对比,探索长江三角洲第一硬质黏土层成因。第一硬质黏土层机械颗粒组成均一,频率曲线呈正偏态、中等或尖锐峰形的双峰分布,频率累积曲线呈"S"型分布,具有风成沉积特性。粒度特征分析为沉积环境判别提供沉积学证据时,综合运用多元统计分析可以使分析结果更准确。聚类分析将硬黏土与典型风成沉积物下蜀黄土粒度分布归为一类,长江悬浮颗粒物单独为一类,表明硬黏土与下蜀黄土成因一致。下蜀黄土与长江悬浮颗粒物粒度参数判别函数,将绝大部分硬黏土样品判定为风成沉积。粒级—标准偏差曲线结合现代风场,显示硬黏土粒度特征存在高空西风和低空西北季风两个主控因子。表明长江三角洲第一硬质黏土层是由西风和西北季风控制的风成成因堆积物。     

水文多变量趋势分析的应用研究

水文频率分析需要进行一系列的假设,包括一致性、同分布性和独立性。由于水文事件通常都包含多个水文变量,例如洪水过程包含洪峰和洪量,低径流过程包括年最小月径流和年最小3个月径流等,因此近年来多变量水文分析与计算方法在水文领域中得到广泛应用。然而,多变量频率分析并未对上述假设进行检验,而是直接对频率分布进行函数拟合,不能保证得到的频率分布函数符合实际情况。引入水质研究领域内广泛使用的多变量MK检验方法,分别对长江上游干支流主要控制站点的年最大洪峰、年最大7d洪量和年最低月径流、年最低3个月径流的单变量和联合变量进行变化趋势分析。结果表明,单变量趋势分析仅仅能够检验出单个变量的变化趋势,而多变量趋势分析则能够综合检验出联合变量是否存在变化趋势。因此,为保证水文频率分析结果的准确,有必要在进行多变量水文频率分析前对单变量和联合变量进行趋势分析。     

多元统计方法在地下水环境研究中的应用——以山西大同盆地为例

运用快速聚类法和因子分析法对大同盆地原生高砷、高氟地下水的16个水化学指标的空间变化进行了分析。结果表明,采用快速聚类法结合实际地下水性质可将研究区地下水分为6类具有不同水化学特征的地下水。从山前到盆地中心河间洼地,地下水中的砷质量浓度逐渐升高,盐碱化程度逐渐加重,水环境呈恶化趋势。因子分析法解释了研究区81.6%的水化学数据,分别提取出反映地下水盐分、砷、氟和硝态氮、Fe和Mn及微量组分Sr的5个公共因子。结合当地水文地质条件及水化学类型特征分析发现,研究区地下水经历了较强的水-岩相互作用、蒸发浓缩作用、离子交换作用,同时受人为活动影响,最终形成了现有的地下水水化学特征。两种统计方法均发现高盐分、高砷及高氟地下水分布有一定的重叠性,水化学特征相似。利用因子得分判断地下水水质特征,划分出各公共因子高值区分布情况与快速聚类法结果基本一致。     

大气有机污染分析和评价I．采样方法及采样误差

对近１０年来国外有关大气污染物的采样方法、有机污染物在气、固相中的分配以及采样误差的主要文献做了简要回顾。对不同采样器的采样效率、误差来源及误差校正方法进行了讨论。列举了一些富有指导意义的研究成果和结论。可以看出，在消除或限制了采样误差后，所得分析结果为客观评价环境污染问题提供了更可靠的依据。     

利用多元线性回归分析法推算潮量的探讨--以奉化江澄浪堰水文站潮量推算为例

利用多元线性回归分析法推算澄浪堰水文站潮量，进行潮量资料试整编，整编成果可以达到一定的精度，满足《水文资料整编规范》(SL247—1999)要求。此法简单、明了，易于操作，可用于澄浪堰水文站潮量资料的整编。