附有周期项的预报模型及其在GPS卫星钟差预报中的应用研究

为了有效进行GPS卫星钟差预报和更好地反映卫星钟差特性,除了考虑卫星原子钟频移、频漂和频漂率等物理性质外,还应考虑到卫星钟差的周期性变化特点.在二次多项式模型基础上,增加了周期项因素,构造了新的预报模型.选取部分GPS卫星铯钟(Cs.clock)和铷钟(Rb.clock)钟差资料,根据钟差变化趋势分3种情况,按不同时间长度进行钟差预报分析,并与二次多项式模型的预报结果比较分析,大量数据分析表明:附有周期项的二次多项式模型预报精度优于二次多项式模型,铷钟预报精度略优于铯钟.     

An Improved Grey Model and Its Application Research on the Prediction of Real-time GPS Satellite Clock Errors

In the work on the real-time GPS precise point positioning, the realtime and reliable prediction of the satellite clock error is one of the keys to the realization of the GPS real-time high accuracy point positioning. The satelliteborne GPS atomic clock has high frequency, is very sensitive and extremely easy to be influenced by the outside world and its own factors. Therefore, it is very difficult for one to know well its complicated and detailed law of change, with these attributes being in accordance with the characteristics of the theory of grey system. Thus, it is considered that the process of variation of the clock error is regarded as a grey system. On the basis of the exploration of the limitations of the quadratic polynomial and grey model satellite clock error predictions, the research on the real-time prediction of the GPS satellite clock error by taking advantage of the improved grey model is proposed. Finally, the materials of the GPS satellite clock error of 3 different time intervals are used to make the accuracy analysis of the clock error prediction of different sampling intervals, to study the relation between the grey model exponential coefficient and the prediction accuracy and to make the analysis of the comparison of the prediction accuracy with that of the quadratic polynomial method. The general relation between the different types of satellite clock errors and the model exponential coefficients is summarized and compared with the IGS final clock error ephemeris product to test and verify the feasibility and availability of the improved prediction model proposed in the present article so as to provide the higher-accuracy satellite clock error products for the real-time GPS dynamic precise point positioning.     

遗传算法优化的BP神经网络卫星钟差预报

针对BP (Back Propagation)神经网络模型预测卫星钟差中权值和阈值的最优化问题, 提出了基于遗传算法优化的BP神经网络卫星钟差短期预报模型, 给出了遗传算法优化BP神经网络的基本思想、具体方法和实施步骤. 为验证该优化模型的有效性和可行性, 利用北斗卫星导航系统(BeiDou navigation satellite system, BDS)卫星钟差数据进行钟差预报精度分析, 并将其与灰色模型(GM(1,1))和BP神经网络模型预报的结果比较分析. 结果表明: 该模型在短期钟差预报中具有较好的精度, 优于GM(1,1)模型和BP神经网络模型.     

Prediction of Clock Errors of Atomic Clocks Based on Modified Linear Combination Model†

The prediction of the clock errors of atomic clocks plays an important role in the work on time and frequency. Each of the prediction models often used at present has its own merits and shortages. A combination of the predicted results obtained by means of these models can be used to synthesize the characteristics of various kinds of prediction models. In the light of the problem which occurs when the linear combination model is used to make the prediction of clock errors, the concept of learning weight is proposed and the modified combination prediction model is made by taking advantage of various kinds of pieces of accuracy information. For verifying the efficiency of this method the clock error sequences of the IGS (International GNSS Service) of 4 GPS satellites are selected and the predicted results of the quadratic polynomial and grey model are combined. The result shows that the modified model can further improve the stability and accuracy based on the guarantee of the reliability.     

Density models for the upper atmosphere

Modeling the effects of atmospheric drag is one of the more important problems associated with the determination of the orbit of a near-earth satellite. Errors in the drag model can lead to significant errors in the determination and prediction of the satellite motion. The uncertainty in the drag acceleration can be attributed to three separate effects: (a) errors in the atmospheric density model, (b) errors in the ballistic coefficient, and (c) errors in the satellite relative velocity. In a number of contemporary satellite missions, the requirements for performing the orbit determination and predictions in near real-time has placed an emphasis on density model computation time as well as the model accuracy. In this investigation, a comparison is made of three contemporary atmospheric density models which are candidates for meeting the current orbit computation requirements. The models considered are the analytic Jacchia-Roberts model, the modified Harris-Priester model, and the USSR Cosmos satellite derived density model. The computational characteristics of each of the models are compared and a modification to the modified Harris-Priester model is proposed which improves its ability to represent the diurnal variation in the atmospheric density.This investigation was supported by the NASA Goddard Spaceflight Center under contract NAS5-20946 and Contract NSG 5154.     

Real-time Solution of Atomic Clock Operating Parameters Based on Adaptive Kalman Filtering

The real-tine and accurate knowledge of the operation of an atomic clock is of great significance to satellite navigation and time keeping. In the light of the problems which exist in the real-time solution of the atomic clock operating parameters by means of the standard Kalman filtering, the method for applying the adaptive Kalman filtering model based on the prediction residual to the real-time solution of the clock parameters is proposed. An adaptive factor is constructed by the model based on the standard Kalman filtering model so that the accurate and reliable estimates of the operating parameters may be given rather fast after the frequency modulation or phase modulation of the atomic clock. Finally, in combination with the 3 computational examples of the work on the navigation and time keeping, the effectiveness of the method is verified.     

基于自回归滑动平均模型的大口径天线风速预测方法

针对大口径、高性能射电望远镜天线受到的随机及时变风扰的问题, 利用自回归滑动平均模型预测望远镜周围风速, 提前计算风致结构变形量, 同时为望远镜伺服控制系统提供足够执行时间来降低风扰影响. 基于新疆奇台110m口径全向可动射电望远镜(QiTai Telescope, QTT)台址风场数据特征, 通过赤池信息准则和贝叶斯信息准则辨识模型阶次, 利用最大似然法估计模型参数, 分析模型残差特性以检验自回归滑动平均模型的有效性. 通过计算不同季度预测数据与测试数据偏差得到预测模型的精度, 夏季平均绝对误差为0.133mcdots^-1, 秋季平均绝对误差为0.162mcdots^-1, 冬季平均绝对误差为0.287mcdots^-1. 整体来看, 基于QTT台址不同季度风速数据建立的自回归滑动平均模型预测误差较小, 满足射电望远镜风扰控制系统的需求, 能为大口径射电望远镜风扰控制提供必要数据支撑.     

Study on The Prediction Method of Characteristic Parameters of Solar X-ray Flares

Solar ?ares are important events for the space weather. The predic- tion of relevant parameters of solar ?ares has practical signi?cance for evaluating the effect of sudden ionospheric disturbance (SID). The data of soft X-ray ?ux observed by the GOES-8 satellite in the 23th solar cycle are used to predict the peak intensities and ending times of X-class ?ares with the method of data ?t- ting. Using this method to analyze the X-class ?ares in the 23th solar cycle, it is possible to predict the peak ?ux of an X-class ?are 17 minutes in advance at most. And the ending time of an X-class ?are may be predicted about 60 minutes in advance at most. The predicted results indicate that the prediction method has certain effectiveness and applicability.     

Application of Grey-autoregressive Dynamic Model to Calculation of Atomic Time Scale

Because of the effects of various kinds of noises and other factors, the state of running of an atomic clock is quite complicated. In order to precisely predict the exact variation in frequency or clock rate of the atomic clock, it is necessary to study and make a reliable prediction model and via the model the clock rate of the atomic clock is predicted so as to be adopted in the monitoring of the coordinated local time and the calculation of the local atomic time. The problem how to utilize the grey model and autoregressive model to predict the clock rate of the atomic clock is discussed. The synthesized model of the two models is proposed and researched. It is tested and verified in combination with the actual data of the atomic clocks at National Time Service Center, and the computational methods of predicting the accuracies of the models corresponding to different atomic clocks are given.     

北斗系统测站钟差短期预报模型比较及其在单星定轨中的应用

北斗卫星导航系统(BDS)地面跟踪站都配置有高精度的氢原子钟,并基于精密定轨数据处理与主站的时间基准进行同步.在卫星轨道机动以及机动恢复期间,通常采用几何法定轨以及单星定轨确定卫星的轨道.而在这两种定轨模式中,需要提供精确的测站钟差作为输入.为提高定轨的实时性,需要对测站钟差进行预报处理.分析了2次多项式模型、附加周期项模型、灰色模型3种模型对北斗地面跟踪站钟差短期拟合和预报的性能,并将钟差预报结果应用于单星定轨,同时还分析了不同预报钟差用于定轨的精度.试验发现,以上3种模型对6个测站钟差的平均拟合精度分别为0.14 ns、0.05 ns、0.27 ns,预报1 h的平均精度分别为1.17 ns、0.88 ns、1.28 ns,预报2 h的平均精度分别为2.72 ns、2.09 ns、2.53 ns.采用3种模型对测站钟差进行预报并用于单星定轨,采用附加周期项的钟差预报模型轨道3维误差最小,不同模型轨道径向精度差异在3 cm以内.以上结果表明,附加周期项的站钟拟合及预报模型在北斗系统机动期间的轨道恢复数据处理具有最好的效果.     

基于修正线性组合模型的原子钟钟差预报

原子钟钟差预报在时频工作中起着重要作用.目前常用的预报模型各有优缺点,为了综合各种预报模型特点,可以考虑组合这些模型预报的结果.针对线性组合模型预报钟差时存在的问题,提出了学习权的概念,以有效地利用各种精度信息,建立了修正组合预报模型.为了验证该方法的有效性,选取了4颗GPS卫星IGS(International GN...     

A Study on the Reliability of the Ionospheric VTEC and Satellite DCB Derived from a Regional GPS Network

According to the requirement of high-precision satellite navigation, we have introduced the method for the quasi-realtime monitoring of variations of the regional ionospheric total electron content (TEC) and GPS satellite differential code bias (DCB), based on the dual-frequency carrier-phase smoothed pseudorange data obtained from a regional GPS network in China. Especially, we have studied the feasibility of retrieving DCB independently from the regional GPS networks with different sizes. For this purpose, 3 regional networks based on the countrywide GPS stations are investigated. The comparisons of the computed DCB and VTEC(vertical total electron content) with those of CODE(the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe) indicate that in order to realize a reliable quasi-realtime measurement of DCB by a regional network, there is a certain requirement on the size of the regional network, and that the relative accuracies of the quasi-realtime VTEC and DCB measured by using a Chinese GPS regional network can reach 2.0TECu and 0.25 ns, respectively.     

北斗星地双向时频传递与广广播钟差精度分析

与其他卫星导航系统不同,北斗卫星导航系统采用星地双向时间比对技术,直接测量卫星钟相对于地面保持的系统时间的钟差,并用于广播电文钟差参数的建模。讨论了电离层延迟误差、卫星相位中心误差等不同误差源对不同类型卫星双向时间同步卫星钟差精度的影响。实测数据分析结果表明,星地双向卫星钟差内符合精度(RMS)优于0.15 ns。利用双向卫星钟差序列,对广播星历钟差参数预报精度进行了分析,统计结果显示广播电文钟差参数预报1 h,精度在2 ns以内,移动卫星刚入境时,钟差参数预报6 h误差可达10 ns。     

Application of Weighted Correlation Functions to Semi-analytic Models and SDSS Data

The effect of circumstances on the properties of galaxies is researched on the basis of semi-analytic models and SDSS DR4 (Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 4). From the measurements of the weighted correlation function with the color, star formation rate and stellar mass, it is found that the semianalytic models are in good accordance with the SDSS data in color and stellar mass, while the star formation rate manifests itself as a thing that has no relation to the circumstances in the SDSS data. This conclusion confirms the prediction of the relation between some properties in a galaxy and the circumstances, made by means of the semi-analytic model, but the reason why the star formation rate has no relation to the circumstances still remains to be studied.     

Research on the Methods of Performance Monitoring and Evaluation for Active Hydrogen Maserstwo

Active hydrogen maser is the main frequency standard for establishing and maintaining the time scale. It has the characteristics of high short-term stability and low phase noise. At present, it plays an increasingly important role in the international atomic time (TAI) and various local time scales. Firstly, in combination with the internal state parameters of an active hydrogen maser, the correlation between the internal state parameters and the comparison data of a hydrogen maser is analyzed, and a method for the performance monitoring of a hydrogen maser is proposed. Secondly, according to the characteristics of hydrogen maser performance, a method for evaluating the performance of a hydrogen maser is given. The hydrogen maser performance includes mainly two aspects, namely the frequency stability and predictability. The performances of two types of active hydrogen masers (CH1-75 and MHM-2010) are evaluated by this method. The correlation analysis of the atomic clock state parameters and comparison data shows that the state parameter monitoring can effectively predict the variation of the hydrogen maser performance. The evaluation results of atomic clock frequency stability and predictability show that the atomic clock with a higher medium-and-long term frequency stability has a better predictability. There are two methods for the predictability evaluation, one is based on the data published by BIPM (Bureau International des Poids et Measures), and another one is based on the quadratic model. Both methods are consistent with the weights published by BIPM. Therefore, the two methods can be used as a quantitative method to evaluate the predictability of a hydrogen maser.     

北斗三号卫星精密定轨中的光压模型研究

对于在轨运行的BDS (BeiDou Navigation Satellite System)卫星, 太阳光压是作用在卫星上主要的非引力摄动. 受多种因素的影响, 太阳光压摄动力难以精确建模, 是BDS卫星精密定轨和轨道预报过程中重要的误差来源. 由于ECOMC (Empirical CODE Orbit Model 1 and 2 Combined)模型兼顾了ECOM1 (Empirical CODE Orbit Model 1)和ECOM2 (Empirical CODE Orbit Model 2)模型的特点, 在模型中引入了较多的待估参数, 使得参数之间存在强相关性. 针对ECOMC模型的这一缺陷, 文中收集了2019年1月至2022年4月武汉大学分析中心提供的BDS-3卫星精密星历, 采用动力学轨道拟合方法得到了ECOMC模型的13个光压参数. 通过对该模型的光压参数进行时间序列分析, 分别给出了BDS-3 IGSO (Inclined Geosynchronous Orbit)和MEO (Medium Earth Orbit)卫星光压模型的参数选择策略. 并利用轨道拟合和轨道预报试验, 验证了光压模型参数选择策略的合理性. 结果表明, 采用改进型ECOMC模型进行BDS-3 IGSO和MEO卫星轨道拟合的效果最佳, 同时, 也能够提升BDS-3 IGSO和MEO卫星中长期轨道预报的精度.     

北斗广域增强系统星钟和星历误差改正算法研究

区域北斗星基增强系统提供等效钟差改正数统一修正星历和钟差误差。随着系统的建设发展,新一代北斗星基增强系统将区分星历和钟差误差改正信息,以提高差分改正精度。由于北斗卫星混合星座设计及区域监测网的局限,星历和钟差误差的高精度分离计算面临着新的挑战。对北斗星基增强系统的星历和钟差改正算法进行了研究,分别采用动力学和运动学模式计算了卫星星历和钟差改正数,并基于北斗实测数据,对两种处理模式的差分改正精度进行了对比研究。试验结果表明,采用动力学和运动学差分方法,得到的双频伪距实时定位精度分别为1.76m和1.78m,定位精度与WAAS及EGNOS相当。利用运动学和动力学差分改正数后均可得到分米级的精密单点定位(precise point position,PPP)结果,其中采用动力学广域差分改正数,收敛后定位精度可达到15cm;采用运动学广域差分改正数,收敛后定位精度可达45cm。     

Online Multi-step Ahead Prediction of Time-Varying Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Indices via Adaptive Neurofuzzy Modeling and Recursive Spectral Analysis

The time-varying Sun as the main source of space weather affects the Earth??s magnetosphere by emitting hot magnetized plasma in the form of solar wind into interplanetary space. Solar and geomagnetic activity indices and their chaotic characteristics vary abruptly during solar and geomagnetic storms. This variation depicts the difficulties in modeling and long-term prediction of solar and geomagnetic storms. On the other hand, the combination of neurofuzzy models and spectral analysis has been a subject of interest due to their many practical applications in modeling and predicting complex phenomena. However, these approaches should be trained by algorithms that need to be carried out by an offline data set, which influences their performance in online modeling and prediction of time-varying phenomena. This paper proposes an adaptive approach for multi-step ahead prediction of space weather indices by extending the regular singular spectrum analysis and locally linear neurofuzzy models to adaptive approaches. The combination of these recursive approaches fulfills requirements of long-term prediction of solar and geomagnetic activity indices. The results demonstrate the power of the proposed method in online prediction of space weather indices.     

A prediction method for ground-based stellar occultations by ellipsoidal solar system bodies and its application

A new programmable prediction method is developed to refine the occultation band by taking into consideration the triaxiality of an occulting body, as well as two more factors, namely, the barycenter offset of an occulting planet from the relevant planetary satellite system and the gravitational deflection of light rays due to an occulting planet. Although these factors can be neglected in most cases, it is shown that there are cases when these factors can cause a variation ranging from several tens to thousands of kilometers in the boundaries of occultation bands. Knowledge of analytic geometry simplifies the process of derivation and computation. This method is applied to long-term predictions of Jovian and Saturnian events.