Analysis of the Tsunami of December 26, 2004, on the Kerala Coast of India—Part III: Inundation and Initial Withdrawal

During the Indian Ocean tsunami of December 26, 2004, specific observations were made by our survey team about the arrival times of several tsunami waves, their amplitudes, maximum extent of horizontal inundation on land and initial withdrawal of the ocean. Here the observations on the horizontal inundation and initial withdrawal are presented and briefly discussed.     

Field measurements and numerical simulations of the 2004 tsunami impact on the south coast of Sri Lanka

This paper examines the factors that have contributed to the significant spatial variability of the impact of the December 2004 tsunami in the southern province of Sri Lanka. Documented observations of the evidence left behind by the 2004 tsunami together with numerical simulation of tsunami propagation have been utilized for this purpose. The field data examined in the present analysis comprise the maximum water levels, the horizontal inundation distances and the number of housing and other buildings damaged as a result of the 2004 tsunami whilst the numerical results considered include the distribution of the amplitude of the tsunami. The present model results confirm that source directivity controls the distribution of tsunami amplitudes farther offshore whilst large-scale bathymetric features significantly influence the tsunami propagating over the shelf. Our analyses of field data also show the dominant influence of coastal geomorphology and topography on the extent of tsunami inundation.     

Tsunami Inundation Modelling for the Coast of Kerala,India

The disastrous tsunami of December 26, 2004, exposed the urgent need for implementing a tsunami warning system. One of the essential requirements of a tsunami warning system is the set up of tsunami inundation models which can predict inundation and run-up along a coastline for a given set of seismic parameters. The Tsunami Warning Centre and the State/District level Disaster Management Centres should have tsunami inundations maps for different scenarios of tsunami generation. In the event of a tsunamigenic earthquake, appropriate decisions on issue of warnings and/or evacuation of coastal population are made by referring to such maps. The nature of tsunami inundation and run-up along the Kerala coast for the 2004 Sumatra and 1945 Makran, and a hypothetical worst-case scenario are simulated using the TUNAMI N2 model and the results are presented in this paper. Further, scenarios of tsunami inundation arising out of possible rise in sea level as projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2001) are also simulated and analysed in the paper. For the study, three representative sectors of the Kerala coast including the Neendakara-Kayamkulam coast, which was the worst hit by the 2004 tsunami, are chosen. The results show that the southern locations and certain locations of central Kerala coast are more vulnerable for Sumatra when compared to Makran 1945 tsunami. From the results of numerical modelling for future scenarios it can be concluded that sea level rise can definitely make pronounced increase in inundation in some of the stretches where the backshore elevation is comparatively low.     

The reduction effects of mangrove forest on a tsunami based on field surveys at Pakarang Cape,Thailand and numerical analysis

Using an integrated approach including satellite imagery analysis, field measurements, and numerical modeling, we investigated the damage to mangroves caused by the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami at Pakarang Cape in Pang Nga Province, Thailand. Comparing pre- and post-tsunami satellite imagery of the study area, we found that approximately 70% of the mangrove forest was destroyed by the tsunami. Based on field observations, we found that the survival rate of mangroves increased with increasing stem diameter. Specifically, we found that 72% of Rhizophora trees with a 25–30 cm stem diameter survived the tsunami impact, whereas only 19% with a 15–20 cm stem diameter survived. We simulated the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami using the nonlinear shallow-water wave theory to reproduce the tsunami inundation flow and investigated the bending moment acting on the mangrove trees. Results of the numerical model showed that the tsunami inundated areas along the mangrove creeks, and its current velocity reached 5.0 m s⁻¹. Based on the field measurements and numerical results, we proposed a fragility function for mangroves, which is the relationship between the probability of damage and the bending stress caused by the maximum bending moment. We refined the numerical model to include the damage probability of mangrove forests using the obtained fragility function to investigate the tsunami reduction effect of mangrove forest. Under simple numerical conditions related to the mangrove forest, ground level, and incident wave, the model showed that a mangrove forest of Rhizophora sp. with a density of 0.2 trees m⁻² and a stem diameter of 15 cm in a 400 m wide area can reduce the tsunami inundation depth by 30% when the incident wave is assumed to have a 3.0 m inundation depth and a wave period of 30 min at the shoreline. However, 50% of the mangrove forest is destroyed by a 4.5 m tsunami inundation depth, and most of the mangrove forest is destroyed by a tsunami inundation depth greater than 6 m. The reduction effect of tsunami inundation depth decreased when the tsunami inundation depth exceeded 3 m, and was mostly lost when the tsunami inundation depth exceeded 6 m.     

2010 年智利和2011 年日本地震海啸在我国东南沿岸诱导的波流特征及危险性分析

本文基于有限断层模型和OKADA 位错模型计算海表变形场作为初始条件,利用MOST 海啸数值模型模拟分析了2010年智利和2011 年日本地震海啸在我国东南沿海地区的海啸传播特征,海啸波模拟结果与观测数据吻合较好。重点研究分析了沈家门港口海域的海啸波流特征及其诱导的涡旋结构。研究结果表明：尽管两次事件的海啸源位置及破裂特征完全不同,但海啸波流在我国东南沿岸的分布特征大致相似;另外相对于海啸波幅而言,港湾中海啸流具有更强的空间差异性,港口入口、岬角地形处和岛屿间水道中往往会有强流存在。尽管这两次越洋海啸均未能在我国东南沿海引发淹没情形,但通过数值计算发现局部均存在超过3 m/s 以上的强流,因此进行海啸预警及风险管理时应综合考虑海啸波流的影响。     

浙江沿海潜在区域地震海啸风险分析

采用COMCOT海啸模型建立三重网格模型模拟了2011年3月11日日本东北部9.0级地震引发的海啸发生、发展以及在我国东南沿海传播过程。震源附近浮标站以及浙江沿海的潮位站实测资料验证结果显示,大部分监测站首波到达时间和海啸波的计算值相差在15%以内,表明模型可较好的模拟海啸在计算域内的传播过程。研究表明日本南海海槽、冲绳海槽以及琉球海沟南部是影响浙江沿海主要的区域潜在震源,通过情景计算分别模拟3个潜在震源9.1级、8.0级和8.7级地震引发的海啸对浙江沿海的海啸风险,计算结果表明,海啸波产生后可在3~8h内传至浙江省沿岸,海啸波达1~3m,最大可达4m,此时浙江沿岸面临Ⅲ~Ⅳ级海啸风险,达到淹没至严重淹没等级。     

Optical measurements of tsunami inundation through an urban waterfront modeled in a large-scale laboratory basin

This paper presents optical measurements of tsunami inundation through an urban waterfront in a laboratory wave basin. The physical model was constructed at 1:50 scale and was an idealization of the town of Seaside, Oregon. The fixed-bed model was designed to study the initial inundation zone along an urban waterfront, such that the flow around several large buildings could be observed. This paper presents an analysis of the optical measurements made with two overhead video cameras, focusing on tracking the leading edge of the tsunami inundation through the urban waterfront and quantifies the accuracy of the algorithm used to track the edge. The results show that the methodology provides high-resolution information in both time and space of the leading edge position, and that these data can be used to quantify the influence of large macro-roughness features on the tsunami inundation processes in laboratory settings. The overall effect of the macro-roughness was to decrease the bore propagation speed relative to the control section with no macro-roughness. The bore speed could be reduced by as much as 40% due to the presence of the macro-roughness relative to the control section.     

Erosion and sedimentation in Kalpakkam (N Tamil Nadu, India) from the 26th December 2004 tsunami

Laterally extensive sand sheets deposited by the 26th December 2004 Asian tsunami provide a valuable modern analogue for comparison with wash over deposits of unknown origin. In many places on the east coast of India, distinct deposits of marine sand drape the landscape and overlie the muddy soils of the coastal plain. This paper discusses detailed measurements of coastal topography, tsunami flow height, and deposit thickness made at Kalpakkam, India. Five transects were examined in detail to assess the sedimentology and spatial distribution of the tsunami deposit. Near the mean water line, the tsunami eroded approximately 10–25 cm of sand from the beach and berm. At Kalpakkam the sand sheet deposited by the tsunami begins 25 m from the shore extending 420 m inland where it becomes thin and patchy approximately 30 m from the limit of inundation. In some cases, the deposit consists of 2 to 4 normally graded units, with coarse sand near the base and fine sand at the top, a characteristic observed in many tsunami deposits worldwide. In many places, the deposits also contain numerous thin laminated units, a characteristic usually associated with storm over wash. The presence of the laminated beds is indicative of the complexity of tsunami sedimentation on the coast. Such observations are essential to the formation of definitive facies models for palaeo-overwash studies that are capable of distinguishing between sediments deposited by storms or tsunami.     

Modeling the near-field effects of the worst-case tsunami in the Makran subduction zone

As a first step towards the development of inundation maps for the northwestern Indian Ocean, we simulated the near-field inundation of two large tsunami in the Makran subduction zone (MSZ). The tsunami scenarios were based on large historical earthquakes in the region. The first scenario included the rupture of about 500 km of the plate boundary in the eastern MSZ, featuring a moment magnitude of M_w 8.6. The second scenario involved the full rupture of the plate boundary resulting from a M_w 9 earthquake. For each scenario, the distribution of tsunami wave height along the coastlines of the region is presented. Also, detailed runup modeling was performed at four main coastal cities in the region for the second scenario. To investigate the possible effect of splay fault branching on tsunami wave height, a hypothetical splay fault was modeled which showed that it can locally increase the maximum wave height by a factor of 2. Our results showed that the two tsunami scenarios produce a runup height of 12-18 m and 24-30 m, respectively. For the second scenario, the modeled inundation distance was between 1 and 5 km.     

Calculation of the initial elevation at the tsunami source using analytical solutions

We have obtained an analytical solution to the problem of determining the initial elevation at the tsunami source, which was formed by small residual deformations of a flat sloping bottom. This solution, which is newly derived, is compared with the known analytical solution of an equivalent problem over a horizontal bottom. It is shown that applying an analytical solution over a horizontal bottom for calculating the initial perturbations in the sources of realistic tsunami provides sufficient accuracy.     

Tsunami Inundation Modeling and Mapping using ALTM- and CARTOSAT-Derived Coastal Topographic Data

Coastal topography is the principal variable that affects the movement of the tsunami wave on land. Therefore, land surface elevation data are critical to a tsunami model for computing extent of inundation. Elevation data from India's remote sensing satellite CARTOSAT-1 are available for the entire Indian coastline, while elevation data collected using Airborne Laser Terrain Mapper (ALTM) are only available for selected sections of the coastline. This study was carried out to evaluate the suitability of CARTOSAT-1 and ALTM elevation data sets in the tsunami inundation modeling. Two areas of the coastal Tamil Nadu that were severely affected during the December 2004 tsunami and surveyed extensively for mapping the extent of inundation were selected as the study areas. Elevation data sets from ALTM, CARTOSAT-1 and field measurement collected using Real-time Kinematic GPS (RTK-GPS) were compared for these areas. The accuracy of ALTM and CARTOSAT-1 data, the significance of interpolation methods and data used on model outputs were studied. The analysis clearly revealed that the elevation accuracy of CARTOSAT-1 data (+/?2m) was much lower than ALTM data (+/?0.6m). However, it was found that despite the differing elevation accuracy, both ALTM and CARTOSAT-1 can be used to produce tsunami inundation maps for open coasts with an accuracy of 185 m (2 grid cells) at 75% and 50% confidence level, respectively.     

Numerical Simulation of Tsunamis on the Tamil Nadu Coast of India

The State of Tamil Nadu was the most affected region in India during the tsunami of December 26, 2004, in the Indian Ocean, in terms of loss of life and damage. Numerical simulation was made for three tsunamis, the December 26, 2004, event, the Sumatra tsunami of 1833, and a hypothetical tsunami originating in the Andaman-Nicobar region. Since inundation is not included in these simulations, the tsunami amplitudes were deduced at the 10m depth contour in the ocean, off several locations on the coast of Tamil Nadu. The computed amplitudes appear reasonable as compared to known tsunami amplitudes from past events.     

Observations of Tsunami Impact on the Coast of Kerala, India

The tsunami generated by the December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake had a devastating effect on some parts of Kerala coast, which is a coast located in southwest India. Results of post-tsunami field surveys carried out to understand the changes in coastal morphology and sediment characteristics in the worst affected Kayamkulam region of Kerala coast are documented in this study. Analysis of offshore bathymetric data indicates the shifting of depth contours towards shore, indicating erosion of sediments and deepening of innershelf due to the tsunami. Depth measurement along the backwater (T-S canal) in the hinterland region indicates siltation due to the inundation of the canal.     

Observations of Tsunami Impact on the Coast of Kerala,India

The tsunami generated by the December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake had a devastating effect on some parts of Kerala coast, which is a coast located in southwest India. Results of post-tsunami field surveys carried out to understand the changes in coastal morphology and sediment characteristics in the worst affected Kayamkulam region of Kerala coast are documented in this study. Analysis of offshore bathymetric data indicates the shifting of depth contours towards shore, indicating erosion of sediments and deepening of innershelf due to the tsunami. Depth measurement along the backwater (T-S canal) in the hinterland region indicates siltation due to the inundation of the canal.     

海啸波传播的线性和非线性特征及近海陆架效应影响的数值研究

浅水方程被广泛应用于海啸预警报业务及研究,而针对线性浅水方程与非线性浅水方程在不同海区水深地形条件下的适用范围、计算效率问题是海啸研究人员急需了解的。本文应用基于浅水方程的海啸数值预报模型就海啸波在南海、东海传播的线性、非线性特征以及陆架对其传播之影响进行了数值分析研究。海啸波在深水的传播表征为强线性特征,此时线性系统对海啸波幅的模拟计算具有较高的精度和效率,而弱的非线性特征及弱的色散特征对海啸波幅的预报影响甚微,可以忽略不计。海啸波传播至浅水大陆架后受海底坡度变化、海底粗糙度等因素影响,波动的非线性效应迅速传播、积累,与线性浅水方程计算的海啸波相比表现出较大差异,主要表现为:在南海区,水深小于100m时,海啸波首波以后的系列波动非线性特征比较明显,两者波幅差别较大,但首波波幅的区别不大,因此对于该区域在不考虑海啸爬高的情况下,应用线性系统计算得到的海啸波幅也可满足海啸预警报的要求;在东海区由于陆架影响,海啸波非线性特征明显增强,水深小于100m区域,首波及其后系列波波幅均差异较大,故在该区域必须考虑海啸波非线性作用。本文就底摩擦项对海啸波首波波幅的影响进行了数值对比分析,结果表明:底摩擦作用对海啸波首波波幅影响仅作用于小于100m水深。最后,该文通过敏感性试验,初步分析了陆架宽度及陆架边缘深度对海啸波波幅的影响,得出海啸波经陆架传播共振、变形后,海啸波幅的放大或减小与陆架的宽度及陆架边缘水深有关。     

Tsunami inundation modeling in constructed environments: A physical and numerical comparison of free-surface elevation,velocity, and momentum flux

A laboratory benchmark test for tsunami inundation through an urban waterfront including free surface elevation, velocity, and specific momentum flux is presented and compared with a numerical model (COULWAVE). The physical model was a 1:50 scale idealization of the town Seaside, Oregon, designed to observe the complex tsunami flow around the macro-roughness such as buildings idealized as impermeable, rectangular blocks. Free surface elevation and velocity time series were measured and analyzed at 31 points along 4 transects. Optical measurements of the leading bore front were used in conjunction with the in-situ velocity and free surface measurements to estimate the time-dependent specific momentum flux at each location. The maximum free surface elevation and specific momentum flux sharply decreased from the shoreline to the landward measurement locations, while the cross-shore velocity slowly decreased linearly. The experimental results show that the maximum specific momentum flux is overestimated by 60 to 260%, if it is calculated using the each maximum values of the free surface elevation and cross-shore velocity. Comparisons show that the numerical model is in good agreement with the physical model at most locations when tuned to a friction factor of 0.005. When the friction factor decreased by a factor of 10 (from 0.01 to 0.001), the average maximum free surface elevation increased 15%, and the average cross-shore velocity and specific momentum flux increased 95 and 208%, respectively. This highlights the importance of comparing velocity in the validation and verification process of numerical models of tsunami inundation.     

The role of horizontal impulses of the faulting continental slope in generating the 26 December 2004 tsunami

For a long time, people have believed that the vertical displacement of seafloor due to undersea earthquakes is the primary cause of tsunami genesis. However, seismically-inverted seafloor deformation of the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman earthquake shows that the total vertical displacement is not enough to have generated the powerful Indian Ocean tsunami. Based on the seismically-inverted data and a three-dimensional ocean general circulation model (OGCM), we show that the momentum force, transferred by the horizontal impulses of the faulting continental slope in that earthquake, has accounted for two thirds of the satellite-observed tsunami height and generated kinetic energy 5 times larger than the potential energy due to the vertical displacement. The asymmetric tsunami pattern, recorded by tide-gauges showing leading-elevation waves toward Sri Lanka and leading-depression waves toward Thailand, is best explained by the horizontally-forced mechanism. The same mechanism has also explained the March 2005 Nias earthquake and tsunami data, suggesting that the horizontal motions of faulting have played more important roles in tsunami genesis than previously thought.     

Scenarios of local tsunamis in the China Seas by Boussinesq model

The Okinawa Trench in the East China Sea and the Manila Trench in the South China Sea are considered to be the regions with high risk of potential tsunamis induced by submarine earthquakes. Tsunami waves will impact the southeast coast of China if tsunamis occur in these areas. In this paper, the horizontal two-dimensional Boussinesq model is used to simulate tsunami generation, propagation, and runnp in a domain with complex geometrical boundaries. The temporary varying bottom boundary condition is adopted to describe the initial tsunami waves motivated by the submarine faults. The Indian Ocean tsunami is simulated by the numerical model as a validation case. The time series of water elevation and runup on the beach are compared with the measured data from field survey. The agreements indicate that the Boussinesq model can be used to simulate tsunamis and predict the waveform and runup. Then, the hypothetical tsunamis in the Okinawa Trench and the Manila Trench are simulated by the numerical model. The arrival time and maximum wave height near coastal cities are predicted by the model. It turns out that the leading depression N-wave occurs when the tsunami propagates in the continental shelf from the Okinawa Trench. The scenarios of the tsunami in the Manila Trench demonstrate significant effects on the coastal area around the South China Sea.     

Reconstructing tsunami run-up from the characteristics of tsunami deposits on the Thai Andaman Coast

Tsunamis can leave deposits on the land surface they inundate. The characteristics of tsunami deposits can be used to calculate tsunami run-up height and velocity. This paper presents a reconstruction of tsunami run-up from tsunami deposit characteristics in a simple mathematical model. The model is modified and applied to reconstruct tsunami run-ups at Ao Kheuy beach and Khuk Khak beach, Phangnga province, Thailand. The input parameters are grain-size and maximum run-up distance of the sediment. The reconstructed run-up heights are 4.16–4.91 m at Ao Kheuy beach and 5.43–9.46 m at Khuk Khak beach. The estimated run-up velocities (maximum velocity) at the still water level are 12.78–19.21 m/s. In the area located 70–140 m inland to the end of run-up inundation, estimated mean run-up velocities decrease from approximately 1.93 m/s to 0 m/s. Reasonably good agreements are found between reconstructed and observed run-up heights. The tsunami run-up height and velocity can be used for risk assessment and coastal development programs in the tsunami affected area. The results show that the area from 0 to 140 m inland was flooded by high velocity run-ups and those run-up energies were dissipated mainly in this area. The area should be designated as either an area where settlement is not permitted or an area where effective protection is provided, for example with flood barriers or forest.     

Mathematical modelling of volcanic tsunamis

The height of widespread tsunami runup about the Bay of Plenty from various volcanic scenarios involving eruptions at White Island is shown to be insignificant in all cases considered, except for Krakatoa‐type explosions. The problem of localised inundation remains unanswered. Some definitions describing volcanic tsunami risk, introduced recently by J. Latter (Bulletin volcanologique 1982), are briefly mentioned. All numerical calculations assumed cylindrical symmetry and used a flux‐corrected Lax‐Wendroff algorithm to solve the modified shallow water equations of Peregrine.