Sensitivity to space and time resolution of a hydrological model using digital elevation data

The space and time resolutions used for the input variables of a distributed hydrological model have a sufficient impact on the model results. This resolution depends on the required accuracy, experimental site and the processes and variables taken into account in the hydrological model. The influence of space and time resolution is studied here for the case of TOPMODEL, a model based on the variable contributing area concept, applied to an experimental 12 km² catchment (Coët-Dan, Brittany, France) during a two month winter period. A sensitivity analysis to space and time resolution is performed first for input variables derived from the digital elevation data, secondly for the optimized values of the TOPMODEL parameters and finally for modelling efficiency. This analysis clearly shows that a relevant domain of space and time resolutions where efficiency is fairly constant can be defined for the input topographic variables, as opposed to another domain of larger resolutions that induces a strong decrease of modelling efficiency. It also shows that the use of a single set of parameters, defined as mean values of parameters on this relevant domain of resolution, does not modify the accuracy of modelling. The sensitivity of the parameters to space and time resolution allows the physical significance of the parameter values to be discussed.     

Inverse modelling for freshwater lens in small islands: Kish Island,Persian Gulf

A number of challenges including instability, nonconvergence, nonuniqueness, nonoptimality, and lack of a general guideline for inverse modelling have limited the application of automatic calibration by generic inversion codes in solving the saltwater intrusion problem in real‐world cases. A systematic parameter selection procedure for the selection of a small number of independent parameters is applied to a real case of saltwater intrusion in a small island aquifer system in the semiarid region of the Persian Gulf. The methodology aims at reducing parameter nonuniqueness and uncertainty and the time spent on inverse modelling computations. Subsequent to the automatic calibration of the numerical model, uncertainty is analysed by constrained nonlinear optimization of the inverse model. The results define the percentage of uncertainty in the parameter estimation that will maintain the model inside a user‐defined neighbourhood of the best possible calibrated model. Sensitivity maps of both pressure and concentration for the small island aquifer system are also developed. These sensitivity maps indicate higher sensitivity of pressure to model parameters compared with concentration. These sensitivity maps serve as a benchmark for correlation analysis and also assist in the selection of observations points of pressure and concentration in the calibration process. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于物理的随机地震动模型研究

基于物理联系研究地震动随机性,建立了随机地震动与基底输入傅氏谱、场地固有圆频率和场地等价阻尼比之间的物理关系,从随机傅氏谱函数角度描述了地震动随机过程的随机性本质。结合Ⅳ类工程场地的实测地震动记录资料,由数值方法识别了给出基本随机变量的概率分布参数。与实测记录对比表明,本文建立的随机地震动模型具有明确的物理概念,可充分反映地震动的变异性特征。     

Analytical evaluation of structural component limit state probabilities

Probabilistic seismic assessment requires extensive computational effort resulting from variability both in input ground motions and mechanical properties. Nonetheless, such methodologies are of considerable importance, namely for pre-earthquake disaster planning or development of retrofitting programs. A framework for the analytical definition of closed form expressions for exceedance probabilities of structural component limit states, defined by limit values of structural response parameters, is proposed herein. The definition of these expressions is based on the probabilistic representation of the ground motion intensity and on the establishment of suitable expressions characterizing the evolution of structural demand with increasing earthquake intensity. Distinction is made between deformation-based and force-based structural parameters in the definition of such relations. Within the proposed framework, the limit states are defined by single deterministic thresholds of structural response quantities at the component level, as defined in structural codes. Different approaches are also discussed to account for the randomness of the mechanical properties and ground motion input within the proposed methodology. An application of the assessment of different limit state probabilities of members from a reinforced concrete building is presented, for which limit states and limit state capacities are defined according to the upcoming Part 3 of the Eurocode 8. Although the presented application only deals with member chord rotation and shear force limit state probabilities, the proposed methodology can be generalized to other deformation-based and force-based structural parameters.     

Numerical study on factors that influence the in‐plane drift capacity of unreinforced masonry walls

Displacement‐based assessment procedures require as input reliable estimates of the deformation capacity of all structural elements. For unreinforced masonry (URM) walls, current design codes specify the in‐plane deformation capacity as empirical equations of interstory drift. National codes differ with regard to the parameters that are considered in these empirical drift capacity equations, but the inhomogeneity of datasets on URM wall tests renders it difficult to validate the hypotheses with the currently available experimental data. This paper contributes to the future development of such empirical relationships by investigating the sensitivity of the drift capacity to the shear span, the aspect ratio, the axial load ratio, and the size of the wall. For this purpose, finite element models of URM walls are developed in Abaqus/Explicit and validated against a set of experimental results. The results show that the axial load ratio, the shear span, and the wall size are among the factors that influence the drift capacity the most. Empirical equations are mainly derived from test results on small walls, and the numerical results suggest that this can lead to a significant overestimation of the drift capacity for larger walls.     

The assessment of high recharge areas using DO indicators and recharge potential analysis: a case study of Taiwan’s Pingtung plain

Identifying high groundwater recharge areas is important for the conservation of groundwater quality and quantity. A common practice used by previous studies is to estimate groundwater recharge potential (GRP) using recharge potential analysis (RPA) under different environments. These studies use the estimated GRP to identify the high potential groundwater recharge sites. However, the RPA parameters are subjectively defined for these previous studies. To remove the supposition, this study proposes a systematic approach that defines the RPA parameter values based on the theory of parameter identification. This study uses dissolved oxygen (DO) indicators to calibrate the RPA parameters. This calibration improves the correlation coefficient between the DO indicators and computed GRP values from 0.63 to 0.87. By comparing the initial values, these results indicate that the estimated RPA parameters better represent the field infiltration characteristic. This result also indicates that defining the RPA parameter values based on DO indicators is necessary and important for accuracy. These calibrated parameters are used to estimate the GRP distribution of Taiwan’s Pingtung Plain. The GRP values are delineated into five levels. High and excellent GRP areas are defined as high recharge areas, which compose about 26.74 % of the study area. Based on the proposed method, the estimated GRP distribution can accurately represent the study area’s field recharge characteristics. These study results can be a good reference for groundwater recharge analyses, specifically if well data is limited or difficult to obtain.     

Control volume method for hydromagnetic dynamos in rotating spherical shells: Testing the code against the numerical dynamo benchmark

Hydromagnetic dynamos in rotating spherical shells are investigated using the control volume method. We present a validation of our code against the numerical dynamo benchmark. It is successfully benchmarked and we are able to conclude that the control volume method is another numerical method available for numerical modelling of self-consistent dynamos. In addition, the efficiency of our numerical code is tested. Computations provide conclusions that dynamo codes based on the spectral methods are much more efficient than our code based on the control volume method at the study of global fields on small and medium size parallel computers. However, our code could be much more efficient than codes based on the spectral methods on very large parallel computers, especially at the study of turbulence.     

活动断层探察数据的信息编码优化研究

从20世纪90年代起,研究人员就开始探索活动断层探察数据的制作、存储与管理。迄今为止,已经获得了大量的活动断层探察数据,建成了一套系统的数据组织体系,为减轻地震灾害的相关研究提供了数据和技术支撑。近年来,随着活动断层数据库信息的扩充,初期设计的部分属性信息编码已不适用。为了形成适应当前工作的属性信息编码体系,本文以活动断层数据库建设体系为基础,对数据库属性值代码进行信息分类和编码优化。文章将数据库属性值代码分为字符型单一含义值、数值型单一含义值及复合含义值,分别进行编码规则设计,最终优化了数据库属性信息编码体系,提高了从建库到数据应用的数据录入、检测、制图自动化、数据分析等环节的效率。     

A new model for spectral velocity ordinates at long periods

The estimation of peak linear response via elastic design (response) spectra continues to form the basis of earthquake‐resistant design of structural systems in various codes of practice all over the world. Many response spectrum‐based formulations of peak linear response require an additional input of the spectral velocity (SV) ordinates consistent with the specified seismic hazard. SV ordinates have been conventionally approximated by pseudo spectral velocity (PSV) ordinates, which are close to the SV ordinates only over the intermediate frequency range coinciding with the velocity‐sensitive region. At long periods, PSV ordinates underestimate the SV ordinates, and this study proposes a formulation of a correction factor (>1) that needs to be multiplied by the PSV ordinates in order to close the gap between the two sets of ordinates. A simple model is proposed in the form of a power function in oscillator period to estimate this factor in terms of two governing parameters which are in turn estimated from two single‐parameter scaling equations. The parameters considered for the scaling equations are (1) the period at which the PSV spectrum is maximized and (2) the rate of decay of the pseudo spectral acceleration (PSA) amplitudes at long periods. For a given damping ratio, four regression coefficients are determined for the scaling equations with the help of 205 ground motions recorded in western USA. A numerical study undertaken with the help of several design PSA spectra and ensembles of spectrum‐compatible ground motions illustrates the effectiveness of the proposed correction factor, together with the proposed scaling models, in comparison with the PSV approximation in a variety of design situations. Both the input parameters mentioned above can be easily obtained from the specified design spectrum, and thus the proposed model is convenient to use.     

Automatic GIS-based system for volcanic hazard assessment

This paper presents an automatic system for the elaboration of volcanic hazard maps and scenarios. The methodology used for the generation of both maps is based on the use of numerical simulation of eruptive processes. The system has been developed in a Geographical Information System (GIS) framework, where models for the numerical simulation of different volcanic hazards have been integrated. The user can select in a toolbar one hazard and then decide whether to generate a scenario map (usually with a unique vent) or a hazard map (generally with a broader source area). Once the input parameters are selected, the system automatically generates the corresponding map. The system also incorporates a module to determine the spatial probability of vent opening, as this could be an important parameter for the computation of hazard maps. The tool has been designed in such a way that the inclusion of new numerical models and functionalities is rather easy. Each numerical model is programmed and implemented as an independent program that is launched from the system and, when it finishes the computation, returns the control to the GIS, where the results are shown. This structure allows that further analyses (specifically, risk analyses, that use as an input a hazard or a scenario map), could be also automated inside the system. Additional information, including tutorial and downloadable files can be found in www.gvb-csic.es.     

钢筋混凝土框架结构全过程pushover分析

以往采用杆系模型对钢筋混凝土结构进行pushover分析时，杆端塑性铰所采用的力一变形关系模型中特征参数的计算是基于杆件的原始尺寸，且对变形的极限值(如极限曲率)没有加以限制，这种本构模型并不能完整地体现构件的受力全过程。本文首先采用数值计算方法分析了钢筋混凝土压弯构件保护层混凝土剥落后强度的变化以及箍筋约束作用对其强度和延性的影响。在此基础上，以一个预应力混凝土框架结构为例进行了全过程pushover分析。算例分析结果表明，这种分析方法能够更合理地反映结构从加载到破坏的整个受力过程。     

土非线性参数变异性对标准设计谱的影响

岩土工程中存在许多不确定性,建筑物抗震规范设计中的标准设计谱实际代表着一种平均结果,并没有考虑到场地土体非线性参数的变异性。文中采用数值模拟的方法研究了土非线性参数变异性对标准设计谱的影响。给出了考虑土非线性参数变异性的概率设计谱。结果表明,土非线性参数变异性对标准设计谱的影响显著;粘性土和无粘性土的动剪切模量比对标准设计谱的影响决定于土非线性参数的概率水准,同时也取决于概率设计谱的频段;烈度7度、8度和9度下土体动剪切模量比变异性使标准设计谱平台最大变化50%、80%和100%,阻尼比变异性使标准设计谱平台最大变化40%、45%和60%。     

Improvements and Corrections to AT123D Code

Although based on exact analytical solutions, semi‐analytical solute transport models can have significant numerical error in applications with high frequency oscillatory source terms and when parameter value combinations cause series solution approximations to converge slowly. Methods for correcting these numerical errors are presented and implemented in the AT123D code, which employs Green's functions to represent point, linear, and rectangular prismatic source zones. In order to increase its computational accuracy, a Romberg numerical integration scheme was added to AT123D with prespecified error criteria, variable time stepping, and partitioning of the integral to handle rapidly changing source terms. More rapidly converging series solution approximations for the Green's functions were also incorporated to improve both accuracy and computational efficiency for finite‐depth aquifers. AT123D also has been modified to eliminate redundant calculations at points where approximate steady‐state conditions have been reached to improve computational efficiency during numerical integration. These modifications help to decrease computer run times that can be excessive for three‐dimensional problems with large numbers of computational points, small time steps, and/or long simulation time periods. Errors in the original AT123D code also were corrected in this modified version, AT123D‐AT, in order to accurately simulate finite‐duration (pulse) source releases.     

Analysis of bridge structures crossing strike-slip fault rupture zones: A simple method for generating across-fault seismic ground motions

This article presents a simple and effective method for generating across-fault seismic ground motions for the analysis of ordinary and seismically isolated bridges crossing strike-slip faults. Based on pulse models available in the literature, two simple loading functions are first proposed to represent the coherent (long-period) components of ground motion across strike-slip faults. The loading functions are then calibrated using actual near-fault ground-motion records with a forward-directivity velocity pulse in the fault-normal direction and a fling-step displacement in the fault-parallel direction. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by comparing time history responses and seismic demands of ordinary and seismically isolated bridges obtained from nonlinear response history analyses using the actual ground-motion records and the calibrated loading functions. A comprehensive methodology is also presented for selecting the input parameters of the loading functions based on empirical equations and practical guidelines. Finally, an analysis procedure for bridge structures crossing strike-slip faults is introduced based on the proposed method for generating across-fault ground motions and the parameter selection methodology for the loading functions.     

Discontinuous Steady‐State Analytical Solutions of the Boussinesq Equation and Their Numerical Representation by Modflow

Known analytical solutions of groundwater flow equations are routinely used for verification of computer codes. However, these analytical solutions (e.g., the Dupuit solution for the steady‐state unconfined unidirectional flow in a uniform aquifer with a flat bottom) represent smooth and continuous water table configurations, simulating which does not pose any significant problems for the numerical groundwater flow models, like MODFLOW. One of the most challenging numerical cases for MODFLOW arises from drying‐rewetting problems often associated with abrupt changes in the elevations of impervious base of a thin unconfined aquifer. Numerical solutions of groundwater flow equations cannot be rigorously verified for such cases due to the lack of corresponding exact analytical solutions. Analytical solutions of the steady‐state Boussinesq equation, associated with the discontinuous water table configurations over a stairway impervious base, are presented in this article. Conditions resulting in such configurations are analyzed and discussed. These solutions appear to be well suited for testing and verification of computer codes. Numerical solutions, obtained by the latest versions of MODFLOW (MODFLOW‐2005 and MODFLOW‐NWT), are compared with the presented discontinuous analytical solutions. It is shown that standard MODFLOW‐2005 code (as well as MODFLOW‐2000 and older versions) has significant convergence problems simulating such cases. The problems manifest themselves either in a total convergence failure or erroneous results. Alternatively, MODFLOW‐NWT, providing a good match to the presented discontinuous analytical solutions, appears to be a more reliable and appropriate code for simulating abrupt changes in water table elevations.     

HYPOSAT – An Enhanced Routine to Locate Seismic Events

—?A program package, called HYPOSAT, has been under development that attempts to use the maximum information possible to estimate the hypocenter of a seismic source. The standard input parameters can be used: arrival times of first and later onsets with backazimuths and ray parameters (or apparent velocities). In addition, travel-time differences between different phases observed at the same station can be optionally used. The observed standard deviations are used to weight all input parameters and the inversion is done with a generalized matrix inversion code.¶A starting solution with a priori uncertainties can be calculated as the intersection of all backazimuth observations. If S observations are also available, a preliminary origin time is estimated using Wadati's approach to estimate a source time.¶Global earth models and user-defined horizontally layered local or regional models can be used alone or together to locate seismic events. To gain the best result from all input data, observations of all seismic phases as defined in the IASPEI91 tables can be inverted. Station corrections and corrections for phases with reflection points at the earth's surface can be applied by using local velocity structures.     

Statistical models with nuisance parameters as applied to an experiment performed by a group of devices

Summary The recent results obtained in optimum processing of data affected by a systematic influence, mainly the equivalent algorithms of processing them on the basis of the observation vector before and after the optimum elimination of the nuisance affects are applied for processing the results obtained by a group of gravimeters within one daily section. Such equivalent procedures yield and important check of the correctness and numerical stability of the results obtained. New statistical models respecting the individual character of a measurement device are used to process the results obtained by a group of gravimeters. The efficiency of the obtained new estimators, in comparison with the efficiency of estimators obtained from the models usually used is surprisingly higher. In the new models, which also respect the presence of nuisance parameters, equivalent procedures have been elaborated. This means that the data processing algorithms are given on the basis of the observation vector before and also after optimum elimination of the nuisance parameters. Such equivalent procedures provide an important check of the correctness and numerical stability of the results obtained.     

Systematic lumped‐parameter models for foundations based on polynomial‐fraction approximation

Based on the approximation by polynomial‐fraction, a series of systematic lumped‐parameter models are developed in this paper for efficiently representing the dynamic behaviour of unbounded soil. Concise formulation is first employed to represent the dynamic flexibility function of foundation with a ratio of two polynomials. By defining an appropriate quadratic error function, the optimal coefficients of the polynomials can be directly solved from a system of linear equations. Through performing partial‐fraction expansion on this polynomial‐fraction and designing two basic discrete‐element models corresponding to the partial fractions, systematic lumped‐parameter models can be conveniently established by connecting these basic units in series. Since the systematic lumped‐parameter models are configured without introducing any mass, the foundation input motion can be directly applied to these models for their applications to the analysis of seismic excitation. The effectiveness of these new models is strictly validated by successfully simulating a semi‐infinite bar on an elastic foundation. Subsequently, these models are applied for representing the dynamic stiffness functions for different types of foundation. Comparison of the new models with the other existing lumped‐parameter models is also made to illustrate their advantages in requiring fewer parameters and featuring a more systematic expansion. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the quantification of local deformation demands and adequacy of linear analysis procedures for the seismic assessment of existing steel buildings to EC8-3

The application of performance-based design and assessment procedures requires an accurate estimation of local component deformation demands. In the case of steel moment-resisting frames, these are usually defined in terms of plastic rotations. A rigorous estimation of this response parameter is not straightforward, requiring not only the adoption of complex nonlinear structural models, but also of time-consuming numerical integration calculations. Moreover, the majority of existing codes and guidelines do not provide any guidance in terms of how these response parameters should be estimated. Part 3 of Eurocode 8 (EC8-3) requires the quantification of plastic rotations even when linear methods of analysis are used. Therefore, the aim of the research presented in this paper is to evaluate different methods of quantifying local component demands and also to answer the question of how reliable are the estimates obtained using the EC8-3 linear analysis procedures in comparison to more accurate nonlinear methods of analysis, particularly when the linear analysis applicability criterion proposed by EC8-3 is verified. An alternative methodology to assess the applicability of linear analysis is proposed which overcomes the important limitations identified in the EC8-3 criterion.