Historical tsunami in the Makran Subduction Zone off the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan and results of numerical modeling

Tsunami hazard in the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ), off the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan, was studied by numerical modeling of historical tsunami in this region. Although the MSZ triggered the second deadliest tsunami in the Indian Ocean, among those known, the tsunami hazard in this region has yet to be analyzed in detail. This paper reports the results of a risk analysis using five scenario events based on the historic records, and identifies a seismic gap area in western Makran off the southern coast of Iran. This is a possible site for a future large earthquake and tsunami. In addition, we performed numerical modeling to explain some ambiguities in the historical reports. Based on the modeling results, we conclude that either the extreme run-up of 12–15 m assigned for the 1945 Makran tsunami in the historical record was produced by a submarine landslide triggered by the parent earthquake, or that these reports are exaggerated. The other possibility could be the generation of the huge run-up heights by large displacements on splay faults. The results of run-up modeling reveal that a large earthquake and tsunami in the MSZ is capable of producing considerable run-up heights in the far field. Therefore, it is possible that the MSZ was the source of the tsunami encountered by a Portuguese fleet in Dabhul in 1524.     

Rockslide tsunamis in complex fjords: From an unstable rock slope at Åkerneset to tsunami risk in western Norway

An unstable rock volume of more than 50 million m³ has been detected in the Åkerneset rock slope in the narrow fjord, Storfjorden, Møre & Romsdal County, Western Norway. If large portions of the volume are released as a whole, the rockslide will generate a tsunami that may be devastating to several settlements and numerous visiting tourists along the fjord. The threat is analysed by a multidisciplinary approach spanning from rock-slope stability via rockslide and wave mechanics to hazard zoning and risk assessment.The rockslide tsunami hazard and the tsunami early-warning system related to the two unstable rock slopes at Åkerneset and Hegguraksla in the complex fjord system are managed by Åknes/Tafjord Beredskap IKS (previously the Åknes/Tafjord project). The present paper focuses on the tsunami analyses performed for this company to better understand the effects of rockslide-generated tsunamis from Åkerneset and Hegguraksla. Two- and three-dimensional site-specific laboratory experiments are conducted to study the generation, propagation, and run-up of the wave for several potential rockslide scenarios from Åkerneset. Furthermore, the two models GloBouss and DpWaves are applied for numerical simulations of the generation/propagation phase and a third model MOST is applied for numerical simulations of the near-shore propagation and inundation of the wave in selected locations. Strong emphasis is put on verification, validation, and sensitivity of the numerical models. The best match between the numerical simulations and the laboratory experiments is found for the larger scenarios with the linear dispersive solution for the propagation phase; the corresponding calculated run-up values are remarkably similar to the ones observed during the laboratory experiments.During the risk assessment it was found that the rockslide tsunami hazard (probability of impact) is higher than accepted by the Norwegian Planning and Building Act. This should at that time prevent any further development in all the exposed areas of the entire fjord system. The Act is today altered to open for specified further development in the various hazard zones. The results of the tsunami analyses are applied in risk management in terms of hazard map production and land-use planning. Two failure scenarios for each of the two unstable rock slopes are designed for the hazard zoning. The larger and less probable scenarios (1 in 5000 years) are applied for evacuation zones and routes, while the smaller and more probable scenarios (larger than 1 in 1000 years) are applied for location and design of less critical facilities accepted in the inundation zone.     

Run-Up of a Solitary Tsunami Wave on a Sloping Coast

Within the framework of the nonlinear theory of long waves, we perform the numerical analysis of the one-dimensional run-up of solitary tsunami waves upon a plane sloping coast. We study the dependences of the run-up heights on the parameters of waves at the entrance of the shelf zone and on the slope of the coast. The run-up heights of tsunami waves are estimated for the bottom topography typical of the south coast of the Crimean Peninsula. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 4, pp. 11–18, July–August, 2005.     

Kinematics of breaking tsunami wavefronts: A data set from large scale laboratory experiments

This paper provides an overview of a new large scale laboratory data set on the kinematics of breaking tsunami wavefronts. The aim of the experiments was to provide an open access data set for model testing, calibration and verification, with particular emphasis on fluid kinematics in the wave breaking and run-up (swash) zones. The experiments were performed over a composite slope in the tsunami wave basin at the O. H. Hinsdale Wave Research Laboratory at Oregon State University. Data for ten different wave conditions were collected, including non-breaking and breaking waves, and both shore breaks and fully developed long bores.Surface elevation and fluid kinematics were measured with a closely spaced array of surface piercing wave gauges, non-contact ultrasonic wave gauges and four 3-D side-looking Acoustic Doppler Velocimeters. The array was traversed from the nearshore (depth = 0.2 m) to the middle and upper run-up zone, providing kinematic data at 30 cross-shore locations. Video was also recorded from 4 cameras covering the propagation, breaking and run-up zones. Surface elevation, flow velocities and the wave maker displacement were also recorded to provide offshore boundary conditions.The experiments include conditions with wave heights up to 0.55 m, notional wave periods up to 20 s and run-up lengths of up to 15.2 m on a 1/30 slope. In terms of the slope in the shoaling and breaker zones, the data correspond to Iribarren numbers in the range of 0.26–5.6. Raw, calibrated and processed data are stored with open access within the OSU Tsunami Wave Basin Experiment Notebook, which provides full access to all the wave maker control signals, data, instrument coordinates, and processing and plotting software. This paper serves as an introduction to the data set, demonstrates data quality and provides an initial analysis of some key parameters that govern the impact of tsunami events, including run-up versus offshore wave conditions and nearshore bore height, the maximum inundation depths at the original shoreline position, and the time to maximum inundation depth and flow reversal. Examples of temporal and convective accelerations and turbulent flow components are also presented to illustrate further details of the kinematics.     

Reconstructing tsunami run-up from the characteristics of tsunami deposits on the Thai Andaman Coast

Tsunamis can leave deposits on the land surface they inundate. The characteristics of tsunami deposits can be used to calculate tsunami run-up height and velocity. This paper presents a reconstruction of tsunami run-up from tsunami deposit characteristics in a simple mathematical model. The model is modified and applied to reconstruct tsunami run-ups at Ao Kheuy beach and Khuk Khak beach, Phangnga province, Thailand. The input parameters are grain-size and maximum run-up distance of the sediment. The reconstructed run-up heights are 4.16–4.91 m at Ao Kheuy beach and 5.43–9.46 m at Khuk Khak beach. The estimated run-up velocities (maximum velocity) at the still water level are 12.78–19.21 m/s. In the area located 70–140 m inland to the end of run-up inundation, estimated mean run-up velocities decrease from approximately 1.93 m/s to 0 m/s. Reasonably good agreements are found between reconstructed and observed run-up heights. The tsunami run-up height and velocity can be used for risk assessment and coastal development programs in the tsunami affected area. The results show that the area from 0 to 140 m inland was flooded by high velocity run-ups and those run-up energies were dissipated mainly in this area. The area should be designated as either an area where settlement is not permitted or an area where effective protection is provided, for example with flood barriers or forest.     

How does multiscale modelling and inclusion of realistic palaeobathymetry affect numerical simulation of the Storegga Slide tsunami?

The ∼8.15 ka Storegga submarine slide was a large (∼3000 km³), tsunamigenic slide off the coast of Norway. The resulting tsunami had run-up heights of around 10–20 m on the Norwegian coast, over 12 m in Shetland, 3–6 m on the Scottish mainland coast and reached as far as Greenland. Accurate numerical simulations of Storegga require high spatial resolution near the coasts, particularly near tsunami run-up observations, and also in the slide region. However, as the computational domain must span the whole of the Norwegian-Greenland sea, employing uniformly high spatial resolution is computationally prohibitive. To overcome this problem, we present a multiscale numerical model of the Storegga slide-generated tsunami where spatial resolution varies from 500 m to 50 km across the entire Norwegian-Greenland sea domain to optimally resolve the slide region, important coastlines and bathymetric changes. We compare results from our multiscale model to previous results using constant-resolution models and show that accounting for changes in bathymetry since 8.15 ka, neglected in previous numerical studies of the Storegga slide-tsunami, improves the agreement between the model and inferred run-up heights in specific locations, especially in the Shetlands, where maximum run-up height increased from 8 m (modern bathymetry) to 13 m (palaeobathymetry). By tracking the Storegga tsunami as far south as the southern North sea, we also found that wave heights were high enough to inundate Doggerland, an island in the southern North Sea prior to sea level rise over the last 8 ka.     

南海主要岛礁概率海啸风险评估

影响地震海啸的震源参数众多且具有很强的不确定性,充分评估海啸风险需要大量的情景模拟.本文基于建立的概率海啸风险模型,采用一种高效的海啸模拟方法,评估了南海主要岛礁的概率海啸风险.通过对历史地震数据的分析,综合考虑震级、震中位置、震源深度的随机性,形成了百万数量级的潜在地震情景集,并通过叠加近似方法实现了大量地震情景引发...     

Mathematical modelling of a potential tsunami associated with a late glacial submarine landslide in the Sea of Marmara

Potential tsunami waves were modelled on the basis of the morphology and geological setting of a late glacial submarine landslide localized in the north-eastern sector of the Sea of Marmara, using a three-dimensional algorithm with the purpose of assessing the future risk of tsunamogenic landslides in the region. The landslide occurred off the Tuzla Peninsula on the north-eastern slope of the Ç?narc?k Basin, the easternmost of the three deep Marmara basins. The mass movement appears to be related to the Main Marmara Fault that passes below the toe of the failed mass. Observations from earlier manned submersible dives suggest that the initiation of the slide was facilitated by secondary faults associated with the Hercynian orogeny and involved Palaeozoic shales dipping southwards towards the deep basin. Radiocarbon dating of core material, together with the well-dated Marmara sapropel above the chaotically mixed landslide surface, reveal that the latest landslide event occurred about 17 ¹⁴C ka b.p. The uppermost scar of the landslide is found at 250 m and its toe at about 1,200 m below the present sea level. At the time of the slide, the Marmara Sea Basin was lacustrine, with its water level at ?85 m. In plan view the landslide has a distinctively triangular shape and the lateral extent of its toe is about 10 km. Multibeam bathymetric data indicate that the sliding motion probably occurred in two phases: a slower phase affecting the eastern part, characterized by an undulating surface, and a more rapid phase affecting the western part that possibly created tsunami waves. In the seismic sections, older failed slide masses can be clearly identified; these were probably displaced during marine isotopic stage 6 (～127–160 ka b.p.). The front of this buried material is located more than 1.5 km further south of the fault. We used a three-dimensional, Green’s function-based potential theory approach, rather than shallow-water equations commonly used in conventional tsunami simulations. The solution algorithm is based on a source-sink formulation and an integral equation. The results indicate that the maximum height of the tsunami in the Ç?narc?k Basin could have reached about half the average thickness of the sliding mass over a lateral extent of 7 km. Assuming an average thickness of 30 m for the landslide, and considering that the water level at 17 ka b.p. was at about ?85 m, the modelling shows that the maximum wave height generated by the slide would have been about 15–17 m.     

海堤坡角变化对海啸波传播过程影响数值分析

针对近岸海域极端海况的防灾减灾问题,准确模拟追踪海啸波传播过程,再现液面局部射流、崩破波等波面湍动现象。建立SPH数值水槽,边界条件基于固壁粒子法,减少海堤坡角改变对计算域精度的影响,讨论粒子间距设置对模拟精度的影响。模拟7种不同海堤坡角下波浪的爬高与衰减情况,讨论了海堤坡角变化对消波系数的影响。当粒子间距设置为0.002 m时,模型能准确地捕捉海啸波的强非线性现象。随着海堤坡角增大,海啸波峰值爬升率增大,波浪越堤后因崩破波的产生,波能衰减进一步加剧。当坡角较小时,消波系数随坡角的增大提升明显,而后趋于缓慢增长。     

Temporal variability of tsunami arrival detection distance revealed by virtual tsunami observation experiments using numerical simulation and 1-month HF radar observation

The combination of a high-frequency ocean surface radar and a tsunami detection method should be assessed as the onshore-offshore distribution of tsunami detection probability, because the probability will vary in accordance with the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and the tsunami magnitude in addition to the radar system specifications. Here, we statistically examine the tsunami detection distance based on virtual tsunami observation experiments by using signals received by a high-frequency radar in February 2014 installed on the southern coast of Japan and numerically simulated velocities induced by a Nankai Trough earthquake. In the experiments, the Doppler frequencies associated with the simulated velocities were superimposed on the receiving signals of the radar, and the radial velocities were calculated from the synthesized signals by the fast Fourier transform. Tsunami arrival was then detected based on the temporal change in the cross-correlation of the velocities, before and after tsunami arrival, between two points 3 km apart along a radar beam. We found that the possibility of tsunami detection primarily depends on the kinetic energy ratio between tsunami current and background current velocities. The monthly average detection probability is over 90% when the energy ratio exceeds 5 (offshore distance: 9 km ≤ L ≤ 36 km) and reduces to 50% when the energy ratio is approximately 1 (L = 42 km) over the shelf slope. The ratio varied with the background current physics and SNR, which was mainly affected by ocean surface wave heights and ionospheric electron density.     

Statistical Simulation of Boxing Day Tsunami of The Indian Ocean and a Predictive Equation for Beach Run up Heights Based on Work-Energy Theorem

The tsunami similar to the one that has occurred in December 26, 2004 (Boxing Day Tsunami) in the Indian Ocean is simulated using the expression derived from Modified Weibull Distribution (for maximum wave height simulation) for extreme wave height predictions. The tuning coefficient plays a significant role in estimating the tsunami heights at various stages. It follows well defined mathematical laws at different stages. It is time dependent in the first three stages and depth dependent in the last two stages. The beach run-up heights estimated by the expression derived from the work-energy relation are comparable with observed values with reasonable accuracy.     

Statistical Simulation of Boxing Day Tsunami of The Indian Ocean and a Predictive Equation for Beach Run up Heights Based on Work-Energy Theorem

The tsunami similar to the one that has occurred in December 26, 2004 (Boxing Day Tsunami) in the Indian Ocean is simulated using the expression derived from Modified Weibull Distribution (for maximum wave height simulation) for extreme wave height predictions. The tuning coefficient plays a significant role in estimating the tsunami heights at various stages. It follows well defined mathematical laws at different stages. It is time dependent in the first three stages and depth dependent in the last two stages. The beach run-up heights estimated by the expression derived from the work-energy relation are comparable with observed values with reasonable accuracy.     

植被斜坡岸滩海啸波消减数值模拟研究

An explicit one-dimensional model based on the shallow water equations(SWEs) was established in this work to simulate tsunami wave propagation on a vegetated beach. This model adopted the finite-volume method(FVM)for maintaining the mass balance of these equations. The resistance force caused by vegetation was taken into account as a source term in the momentum equation. The Harten–Lax–van Leer(HLL) approximate Riemann solver was applied to evaluate the interface fluxes for tracing the wet/dry transition boundary. This proposed model was used to simulate solitary wave run-up and long-periodic wave propagation on a sloping beach. The calibration process suitably compared the calculated results with the measured data. The tsunami waves were also simulated to discuss the water depth, tsunami force, as well as the current speed in absence of and in presence of forest domain. The results indicated that forest growth at the beach reduced wave energy loss caused by tsunamis. A series of sensitivity analyses were conducted with respect to variable parameters(such as vegetation densities, wave heights, wave periods, bed resistance, and beach slopes) to identify important influences on mitigating tsunami damage on coastal forest beach.     

有限断层模型在2015年9月16日智利Mw8.3级地震海啸数值模拟中的应用与评估

2015年9月16日22时54分（当地时间）智利中部近岸发生M_w8.3级地震,震源深度25 km。同时,强震的破裂区长200 km,宽100 km,随之产生了中等强度的越洋海啸。海啸影响了智利沿岸近700 km的区域,局部地区监测到近5 m的海啸波幅和超过13 m的海啸爬坡高度。太平洋区域的40多个海啸浮标及200多个近岸潮位观测站详细记录了此次海啸的越洋传播过程,为详细研究此次海啸近场及远场传播及演化规律提供了珍贵的数据。本文选择有限断层模型和自适应网格海啸数值模型建立了既可以兼顾越洋海啸的计算效率又可以实现近场海啸精细化模拟的高分辨率海啸模型。模拟对比分析了海啸的越洋传播特征,结果表明采用所建立的模型可以较好地再现远场及近场海啸特征,特别是对近场海啸的模拟结果非常理想。表明有限断层可以较好地约束近场、特别是局部区域的破裂特征,可为海啸预警提供更加精确的震源信息,结合高分辨率的海啸数值预报模式实现海啸传播特征的精细化预报。本文结合观测数据与数值模拟结果初步分析了海啸波的频散特征及其对模型结果的影响。同时对观测中典型的海啸波特征进行的简要的总结。谱分析结果表明海啸波的能量主要分布在10~50 min周期域内。这些波特征提取是现行海啸预警信息中未涉及,但又十分重要的预警参数。进一步对这些波动特征的详细研究将为海啸预警信息及预警产品的完善提供技术支撑。     

Coastal forest effects on tsunami run-up heights

An experimental study was carried out to determine the effects of a coastal forest on tsunami run-up heights. The beach was built as a natural sandy beach at laboratory scale. The coastal forest model was constructed using artificial trees (FM–I) and cylindrical timber sticks (FM–II). Artificial trees were placed on a 1:5 slope in three different layouts: rectilinear, staggered, and dense rectilinear. It was shown that in the case when the trees were placed in the dense rectilinear pattern and close to the still water level (SWL), the run-up height was reduced by approximately 45% compared with the case without trees. After evaluation of the experimental results, the parameters that affect the run-up height were determined. These parameters were written as a dimensionless group using Buckingham's Pi theorem. An extensive regression analysis was carried out and equations proposed. Furthermore, all experiments were repeated with a slope of 1:3.5 to verify the proposed equations. The experimental results were compared with the results of the proposed equations, and it was shown a good agreement between the results.     

Numerical simulation of the tsunami generated by a past catastrophic landslide on the volcanic island of Ischia, Italy

The island of Ischia, Gulf of Naples, Italy, like many other volcanic islands is affected by mass failures, that are mainly related to secondary volcanic processes such as slope steepening and seismic shaking. The block resurgence of its main relief, Mount Epomeo, has been recognised to contribute cyclically to mass instability and cause landslides, that occasionally may reach the sea and start tsunamis. In this work we explore the consequences of the Ischia Debris Avalanche (IDA), a flank collapse that occurred in historical times, and involved the whole Mount Epomeo edifice including its submarine portion, and that may have caused gigantic sea waves affecting all the coasts of Ischia and of the Gulf of Naples. The IDA and the generated tsunami have been taken as the worst-case scenario for the occurrence of a new tsunami in the area. They have been simulated through numerical codes developed and maintained by the University of Bologna. The simulation shows that the IDA-induced tsunami attacks severely all the coasts of the Gulf of Naples with the highest waves obtained for the island of Ischia, the island of Capri and the peninsula of Sorrento. The propagation pattern of the IDA tsunami can be used to get hints on the impact that such an event may have had on early populations habiting Gulf of Naples, but also to get clues on the area that could be most severely hit by a tsunami generated by a smaller-scale landslide that may occur in the same source zone.     

Worst scenarios of tsunami effects along the Mediterranean coast of Egypt

Scenarios of tsunami effects represent a very useful technique for the definition and evaluation of tsunami hazard and risk for the Egyptian coast. This paper is an attempt to develop different worst scenarios of tsunamigenesis toward the Egyptian Coast for five segment localities along three different sub-regions (Hellenic Arc, Cyprean Arc and Levantine Coast) in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. These segments are the southwest Hellenic Arc, southeast Hellenic Arc, northeast Hellenic Arc, west of Cyprean Arc and Levantine. For each of them, the scenario takes into account a seismic fault capable of generating an earthquake with magnitude equal to or larger than the highest magnitude registered in that region in historical times. Then the ensuing tsunamis are simulated numerically, highlighting the basic features of the wave propagation and roughly identifying the coastal sectors that are expected to suffer the heaviest tsunami effects. The output data indicated that the first wave of tsunamis from different segments attacked the nearest reference localities (city located nearest each segment) along the Egyptian shore between 28 and 50 min after an earthquake. Tsunamis from these earthquake scenarios produced maximum run-up heights ranging from 1.7 to 9.4 m at the shore. A Beirut Thrust scenario (Levantine segment) included the fact that only a small portion of the fault extended out into the sea, leading to a small effective tsunami source area. In contrast, the southwest Hellenic Arc segment (as in the A.D. 365 earthquake) has high displacement (15 m) and a long extensional fault, forming a highly effective tsunami source area.     

Run-up of tsunamis and long waves in terms of surf-similarity

In this paper we review and re-examine the classical analytical solutions for run-up of periodic long waves on an infinitely long slope as well as on a finite slope attached to a flat bottom. Both cases provide simple expressions for the maximum run-up and the associated flow velocity in terms of the surf-similarity parameter and the amplitude to depth ratio determined at some offshore location. We use the analytical expressions to analyze the impact of tsunamis on beaches and relate the discussion to the recent Indian Ocean tsunami from December 26, 2004. An important conclusion is that extreme run-up combined with extreme flow velocities occurs for surf-similarity parameters of the order 3–6, and for typical tsunami wave periods this requires relatively mild beach slopes. Next, we compare the theoretical solutions to measured run-up of breaking and non-breaking irregular waves on steep impermeable slopes. For the non-breaking waves, the theoretical curves turn out to be superior to state-of-the-art empirical estimates. Finally, we compare the theoretical solutions with numerical results obtained with a high-order Boussinesq-type method, and generally obtain an excellent agreement.     

Numerical investigation of tsunami-like wave hydrodynamic characteristics and its comparison with solitary wave

Solitary waves have been commonly used as an initial condition in the experimental and numerical modelling of tsunamis for decades. However, the main component of a tsunami waves acts at completely different spatial and temporal scales than solitary waves. Thus, use of solitary waves as approximation of a tsunami wave may not yield realistic model results, especially in the coastal region where the shoaling effect restrains the development of the tsunami wave. Alternatively, N-shaped waves may be used to give a more realistic approximation of the tsunami wave profile. Based on the superposition of the sech²(*) waves, the observed tsunami wave profile could be approximated with the N-shaped wave method, and this paper presents numerical simulation results based on the tsunami-like wave generated based on the observed tsunami wave profile measured in the Tohoku tsunami. This tsunami-like wave was numerically generated with an internal wave source method based on the two-phase incompressible flow model with a Volume of Fluid (VOF) method to capture the free surface, and a finite volume scheme was used to solve all the governing equations. The model is first validated for the case of a solitary wave propagating within a straight channel, by comparing its analytical solutions to model results. Further, model comparisons between the solitary and tsunami-like wave are then made for (a) the simulation of wave run-up on shore and (b) wave transport over breakwater. Comparisons show that use of these largely different waveform shapes as inputs produces significant differences in overall wave evolution, hydrodynamic load characteristics as well as velocity and vortex fields. Further, it was found that the solitary wave uses underestimated the total energy and hence underestimated the run-up distance.     

珊瑚岛礁孤立波爬坡的平面二维数值模拟研究

为了探究岛屿周围珊瑚礁在抵御海啸灾害中的作用,采用激波捕捉类Boussinesq模型FUNWAVE-TVD,对孤立波在理想化三维岛礁地形上的传播及爬坡开展了现场尺度的平面二维数值模拟,分析了入射波高、礁坪水深、礁坪宽度、礁前斜坡坡度、礁后斜坡坡度、珊瑚礁糙率对岛屿四周孤立波爬高分布的影响。结果表明,珊瑚礁的存在总体上可有效降低岛屿四周孤立波的最大爬坡高度;入射波高、礁坪水深、礁坪宽度、珊瑚礁糙率是影响珊瑚岛礁四周孤立波爬坡分布的主要因素,岛礁四周最大爬坡高度会随入射波高和礁坪水深的增大、礁坪宽度和珊瑚礁糙率的减小而不断增大;当礁坪水深增大到一定程度时,珊瑚礁主要会对岛屿背浪面的爬高失去影响,而当礁坪宽度和珊瑚礁糙率减小至一定程度时,会出现岛礁四周最大爬高高于无珊瑚礁时爬高的现象;礁后斜坡的变缓会使岛礁周围的最大爬高有所减小,而礁前斜坡坡度对珊瑚岛礁周围的最大爬高几乎没有影响。