An observational test of the stress accumulation model based on seismicity preceding the 1992 Landers, CA earthquake

We test the Bowman and King [Bowman, D.D., King, G.C.P., 2001a, Accelerating seismicity and stress accumulation before large earthquakes. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28 (21), 4039–4042, Bowman, D.D., King, G.C.P., 2001b. Stress transfer and seismicity changes before large earthquakes. C. R. Acad. Sci. Paris, 333, 591–599] Stress Accumulation model by examining the evolution of seismicity rates prior to the 1992 Landers, California earthquake. The Stress Accumulation (SA) model was developed to explain observations of accelerating seismicity preceding large earthquakes. The model proposes that accelerating seismicity sequences result from the tectonic loading of large fault structures through aseismic slip in the elasto-plastic lower crust. This loading progressively increases the stress on smaller faults within a critical region around the main structure, thereby causing the observed acceleration of precursory activity. A secondary prediction of the SA model is that the precursory seismicity rates should increase first at the edges of the critical region, with the rates gradually rising over time at closer distances to the main fault. We test this prediction by examining year-long seismicity rates between 1960 and 2004, as a function of distance from the Landers rupture. To quantify the significance of trends in the seismicity rates, we auto-correlate the data, using a range of spatial and temporal lags. We find weak evidence for increased seismicity rates propagating towards the Landers rupture, but cannot conclusively distinguish these results from those obtained for a random earthquake catalog. However, we find a strong indication of periodicity in the rate fluctuations, as well as high correlation between activity 130–170 km from Landers and seismicity rates within 50 km of the Landers rupture temporally offset 1.5–2 years. The implications of this spatio–temporal correlation will be addressed in future studies.     

Interpretation of radon anomalies in seismotectonic and tectonic-gravitational settings: the south-eastern Crati graben (Northern Calabria, Italy)

The study area is located in the south-eastern part of the Crati valley (Northern Calabria, Italy), which is a graben bordered by N–S trending normal faults and crossed by NW–SE normal left-lateral faults. Numerous severe crustal earthquakes have affected the area in historical time. Present-day seismic activity is mainly related to the N–S faults located along the eastern border of the graben. In this area, much seismically induced deep-seated deformation has also been recognised.In the present paper, radon concentrations in soil gas have been measured and compared with (a) lithology, (b) Quaternary faults, (c) historical and instrumental seismicity, and (d) deep-seated deformation.The results highlight the following:

(a) There is no evidence of a strong correlation between lithology and the radon anomalies.

(b) A clear correlation between the N–S geometry of radon anomalies and the orientation of main fault systems has been recognised, except in the southernmost part of the area, where the radon concentrations are strongly affected by the superposition of the N–S and the NW–SE fault systems.

(c) Epicentral zones of instrumental and historical earthquakes correspond to the highest values of radon concentrations, probably indicating recent activated fault segments. In particular, high radon values occur in the zones struck by earthquakes in 1835, 1854, and 1870.

(d) Deep-seated gravitational deformation generally coincides with zones characterised by low radon concentrations.

In the studied area, the anisotropic distribution of radon concentrations is congruent with the presence of neotectonic features and deep-seated gravitational phenomena. The method used in this study could profitably contribute towards either seismic risk or deep-seated gravitational deformation analyses.     

Application of a modified pattern informatics method to forecasting the locations of future large earthquakes in the central Japan

We propose a modification of the Pattern Informatics (PI) method that has been developed for forecasting the locations of future large earthquakes. This forecast is based on analyzing the space–time patterns of past earthquakes to find possible locations where future large earthquakes are expected to occur. A characteristic of our modification is that the effect of errors in the locations of past earthquakes on the output forecast is reduced. We apply the modified and original methods to seismicity in the central part of Japan and compared the forecast performances. We also invoke the Relative Intensity (RI) of seismic activity and randomized catalogs to constitute null hypotheses. We do statistical tests using the Molchan and Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) diagrams and the log-likelihoods and show that the forecast for using the modified PI method is generally better than the competing original-PI forecast and the forecasts from the null hypotheses. Using the bootstrap technique with Monte-Carlo simulations, we further confirm that earthquake sequences simulated based on the modified-PI forecast can be statistically the same as the real earthquake sequence so that the forecast is acceptable. The main and innovative science in this paper is the modification of the PI method and the demonstration of its applicability, showing a considerable promise as an intermediate-term earthquake forecasting tool.     

On the possibility of reservoir-induced seismicity in the Garhwal Himalaya

Chander, R., 1991. On the possibility of reservoir-induced seismicity in the Garhwal Himalaya. Eng. Geol., 30: 393–399.

It is argued from a brief review of available evidence that the possibility of reservoir-induced seismicity (RIS) in the Himalaya as a whole cannot be ruled out at the present time. On the other hand, a review of recent local investigations of small earthquakes ( m_b less than 5) and teleseismic investigations of moderate earthquakes (m_b between 5 and 6, mainly) occurring in the Garhwal segment of the Alpide-Himalayan seismic belt provides evidence that RIS in the region can be anticipated. While their epicentral belts coincide geographically, the estimated focal depths of small and moderate earthquakes of the Garhwal Himalaya are in the ranges of 0–14 and 10–20 km, respectively. Small earthquakes occur by reactivation of strike-slip and reverse faults and moderate earthquakes occur on thrust faults. Elsewhere in the world, RIS has been observed most often in the crust at the depths where small earthquakes have been observed in the Garhwal Himalaya. In addition, RIS has been experienced during the impoundment of reservoirs in strike-slip and reverse fault environments, while theoretical analyses indicate that, if suitably located in relation to the reservoir, even a thrust fault may be destabilised by impoundment.     

Fault geometries from the space distribution of the 1990–1997 Sannio–Benevento earthquakes: inferences on the active deformation in Southern Apennines

In this study, we analyze the recent (1990–1997) seismicity that affected the northern sector (Sannio–Benevento area) of the Southern Apennines chain. We applied the Best Estimate Method (BEM), which collapses hypocentral clouds, to the events of low energy (M_{d max}=4.1) seismic sequences in order to constrain the location and geometry of the seismogenetic structures. The results indicate that earthquakes aligned along three main structures: two sub-parallel structures striking NW–SE (1990–1992, Benevento sequence) and one structure striking NE–SW (1997, Sannio sequence). The southernmost NW–SE structure, which dips towards NE, overlies the fault that is likely to be responsible for a larger historical earthquake (I_{o max}=XI MCS, 1688 earthquake). The northernmost NW–SE striking structure dips towards SW. The NE–SW striking structure is sub-vertical and it is located at the northern tip of the fault segment supposed to be responsible for the 1688 earthquake. The spatio-temporal evolution of the 1990–1997 seismicity indicates a progressive migration from SE (Benevento) to NW (Sannio) associated to a deepening of hypocenters (i.e., from about 5 to 12 km). Hypocenters cluster at the interface between the major structural discontinuities (e.g., pre-existing thrust surfaces) or within higher rigidity layers (e.g., the Apulia carbonates). Available focal mechanisms from earthquakes occurred on the recognized NW–SE and NE–SW faults are consistent with dip-slip normal solutions. This evidences the occurrence of coexisting NW–SE and NE–SW extensions in Southern Apennines.     

Temporal behavior of the background seismicity rate in central Japan, 1998 to mid-2003

We studied the temporal behavior of the background shallow seismicity rate in 700 circular areas across inland Japan. To search for and test the significance of the possible rate changes in background seismicity, we developed an efficient computational method that applies the space–time ETAS model proposed by Ogata in 1998 to the areas. Also, we conducted Monte Carlo tests using a simulated catalog to validate the model we applied. Our first finding was that the activation anomalies were found so frequently that the constant background seismicity hypothesis may not be appropriate and/or the triggered event model with constraints on the parameters may not adequately describe the observed seismicity. However, quiescence occasionally occurs merely by chance. Another outcome of our study was that we could automatically find several anomalous background seismicity rate changes associated with the occurrence of large earthquakes. Very significant seismic activation was found before the M6.1 Mt. Iwate earthquake of 1998. Also, possible seismic quiescence was found in an area 150 km southwest of the focal region of the M7.3 Western Tottori earthquake of 2000. The seismicity rate in the area recovered after the mainshock.     

Coastal neotectonics in Southern Central Andes: uplift and deformation of marine terraces in Northern Chile (27°S)

Neotectonic observations allow a new interpretation of the recent tectonic behaviour of the outer fore arc in the Caldera area, northern Chile (27°S). Two periods of deformation are distinguished, based on large-scale Neogene to Quaternary features of the westernmost part of the Coastal Cordillera: Late Miocene to Early Pliocene deformations, characterized by a weak NE–SW to E–W extension is followed by uppermost Pliocene NW–SE to E–W compression. The Middle Pleistocene to Recent time is characterized by vertical uplift and NW–SE extension. These deformations provide clear indications of the occurrence of moderate to large earthquakes. Microseismic observations, however, indicate a lack of shallow crustal seismicity in coastal zone. We propose that both long-term brittle deformation and uplift are linked to the subduction seismic cycle.     

The present status of reservoir induced seismicity investigations with special emphasis on Koyna earthquakes

The status of Reservoir Induced Seismicity (RIS) has been reviewed periodically (Rothé, 1968, 1973; Gupta and Rastogi, 1976; Simpson, 1976; Packer et al., 1979). In the present paper, the significant work carried out during the last three years on RIS is reviewed.An earthquake of magnitude occurred on November 14, 1981 in the vicinity of Aswan Lake, Egypt, 17 years after the filling started in 1964. This event occurred 4 days after the seasonal maximum in the reservoir water level and was followed by a long sequence of aftershocks. Another event of magnitude occurred in the vicinity of Aswan Lake on August 20, 1982. Results of preliminary investigations indicate that this seismic activity is reservoir induced. Recent analyses of induced seismic events at Nurek Reservoir U.S.S.R., show that the second stage of filling during August to December 1976, increasing the maximum depth from 120 m to 200 m, was accompanied by an intense burst of shallow seismic activity. An outward migration from the centre of the reservoir, possibly associated with diffusion of pore pressure, is revealed by the temporal distribution of earthquake foci. A variety of investigations including the in situ measurement of tectonic stress, pore pressure, permeability, distribution of faults, etc., in addition to monitoring seismicity, have been undertaken in the vicinity of the Monticello Reservoir, South Carolina. The largest reservoir induced earthquake is predicted not to exceed magnitude 5.The Koyna Reservoir, India, continues to be the most outstanding example of RIS. Three earthquakes of magnitude 5 occurred in September 1980. Earthquakes of magnitude 4 occur frequently in the vicinity of Koyna, the latest being on February 5, 1983. Events that occurred during the period 1967–1973 have been relocated using better procedures and are found to be much shallower and the epicentres less diffused. Location of 12 earthquakes of M_s 4.0, their foreshocks and aftershocks, that occurred during 1973–1976, composite focal mechanism solutions and related studies are consistent with the delineation of a N-S trending fault through the reservoir area. In a couple of interesting studies it has been demonstrated that earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 in the Koyna region are usually preceded by several magnitude 4 earthquakes in the preceding fortnight. Also, a rate of loading of Koyna reservoir of at least 40 ft/week appears to be a necessary, although not sufficient, condition for the occurrence of magnitude 5 earthquakes. Smooth filling/emptying appears to be the key to reduce the hazard of RIS.A map and a table of the reported cases of reservoir induced changes in seismicity through 1982 have been compiled.     

Correlations in aftershock and seismicity patterns

Correlations in space and time play a fundamental role in earthquake processes. One direct manifestation of the effects of correlations is the occurrence of aftershocks due to the stress transfer in the vicinity of a main shock. Less obvious and more speculative changes in correlations may occur in the background seismicity before large earthquakes. Using statistical physics it is possible to introduce a measure of spatial correlations through a correlation length. This quantity characterizes how local fluctuations can influence the occurrence of earthquakes over distances comparable with the correlation length. In this work, the physical basis of spatial correlations of earthquakes is discussed in the context of critical phenomena and the percolation problem. The method of two-point correlation function is applied to the seismicity of California. Well defined variations in time of the correlation length are found for aftershock sequences and background seismicity. The scaling properties of our obtained distributions are analyzed with respect to changes in several scaling parameters such as lower magnitude cutoff of earthquakes, the maximum time interval between earthquakes, and the spatial size of the area considered. This scaling behavior can be described in a unified manner by utilizing the multifractal fit. Utilizing the percolation approach the time evolution of clusters of earthquakes is studied with the correlation length defined in terms of the radius of gyration of clusters. This method is applied to the seismicity of California.     

Earthquakes in the Eastern Great Lakes Basin from a regional perspective

This paper presents a summary of the seismicity and its relation to stress and geologic structures in the Eastern Great Lakes Basin (EGLB) and compares it with that of other regions in the central and eastern North America (CENA). The earthquakes scattered throughout the EGLB are occurring at a rate somewhat less than that of the Appalachians and along the Atlantic Seaboard. Paleoseismology studies suggest that the lower seismicity rate may be characteristic of the EGLB since the Late Wisconsin. North of the EGLB, earthquakes have primarily thrust mechanisms, while to the south of the EGLB, most earthquakes are strike-slip. Throughout the region, including the EGLB, the average P axes of the earthquakes are oriented NE–SW and are aligned with the direction of the current plate driving stress. On a regional basis, earthquakes are centered primarily in the Precambrian basement beneath the Paleozoic cover. Many of the earthquakes in the EGLB have occurred in areas of preexisting faults, at least some of which may have been active during past episodes of continental rifting. For individual faults that have been studied in some detail, however, it is not clear whether earthquakes represent reactivations of local preexisting structures or nucleation of new ruptures in or near the old fault zones.     

Transtensional deformation in the Lake Tahoe region, California and Nevada, USA

Dextral transtensional deformation is occurring along the Sierra Nevada–Great Basin boundary zone (SNGBBZ) at the eastern edge of the Sierra Nevada microplate. In the Lake Tahoe region of the SNGBBZ, transtension is partitioned spatially and temporally into domains of north–south striking normal faults and transitional domains with conjugate strike-slip faults. The normal fault domains, which have had large Holocene earthquakes but account only for background seismicity in the historic period, primarily accommodate east–west extension, while the transitional domains, which have had moderate Holocene and historic earthquakes and are currently seismically active, primarily record north–south shortening. Through partitioned slip, the upper crust in this region undergoes overall constrictional strain.Major fault zones within the Lake Tahoe basin include two normal fault zones: the northwest-trending Tahoe–Sierra frontal fault zone (TSFFZ) and the north-trending West Tahoe–Dollar Point fault zone. Most faults in these zones show eastside down displacements. Both of these fault zones show evidence of Holocene earthquakes but are relatively quiet seismically through the historic record. The northeast-trending North Tahoe–Incline Village fault zone is a major normal to sinistral-oblique fault zone. This fault zone shows evidence for large Holocene earthquakes and based on the historic record is seismically active at the microearthquake level. The zone forms the boundary between the Lake Tahoe normal fault domain to the south and the Truckee transition zone to the north.Several lines of evidence, including both geology and historic seismicity, indicate that the seismically active Truckee and Gardnerville transition zones, north and southeast of Lake Tahoe basin, respectively, are undergoing north–south shortening. In addition, the central Carson Range, a major north-trending range block between two large normal fault zones, shows internal fault patterns that suggest the range is undergoing north–south shortening in addition to east–west extension.A model capable of explaining the spatial and temporal partitioning of slip suggests that seismic behavior in the region alternates between two modes, one mode characterized by an east–west minimum principal stress and a north–south maximum principal stress as at present. In this mode, seismicity and small-scale faulting reflecting north–south shortening concentrate in mechanically weak transition zones with primarily strike-slip faulting in relatively small-magnitude events, and domains with major normal faults are relatively quiet. A second mode occurs after sufficient north–south shortening reduces the north–south S_hmax in magnitude until it is less than S_v, at which point S_v becomes the maximum principal stress. This second mode is then characterized by large earthquakes on major normal faults in the large normal fault domains, which dominate the overall moment release in the region, producing significant east–west extension.     

Local seismic array observations at north Evoikos, central Greece, delineate crustal deformation between the North Aegean Trough and Corinthiakos Rift

In order to better constrain and define the microseismic activity at the north Evoikos Gulf and its surrounding area we deployed an onshore/offshore seismic array consisting of 31 three-component seismic digital stations. The array was active from 30 June to 24 October 2003, and covered an area of 2500 km². We located more than 2000 seismic events ranging from 0.7 to 4.5 M_L by using six stations as a minimum in order to define the foci parameters. Recorded seismicity delineated three major zones of deformation: from south to north, the Eretria–Parnis–eastern Corinthiakos zone, the Psachna–Viotia zone, and the Northern Sporades–North Evia–Bralos zone. Alignments of the recorded seismicity follow the tectonic trends and their orientation in the above zones. The whole area accommodates the stress field between the North Aegean Trough and the Corinthiakos Gulf. Rate of deformation intensifies from north to south, as revealed also by historical and instrumental seismicity. The successive change of orientation between the two stress fields fragments the crust in relatively small units and the fault systems developed do not permit the generation of major earthquakes in the north Evoikos area and its immediate vicinity. This is also supported by the instrumental seismicity of the last century. Larger events reported in historical times are probably overestimated.Most seismic activity is crustal. Subcrustal events were recorded mainly below the Lichades area and are interpreted as the consequence of the subduction of the Ionian oceanic lithosphere below the Hellenides. The Lichades volcano is the most northern end of the Hellenic volcanic arc.At present the highest seismic activity is associated with the Psachna region of north Evia that has been continuously active since 2001. Considering, however, the development of the seismic activity during the last decade, there has been a sequence of large events, i.e., Parnis in 1999, Skyros in 2001 and Psachna in 2001–2003. This demonstrates the fact that the tectonic deformation in all this area is intense and important for the accommodation of the stress field of the North Aegean Trough to that of the Corinthiakos Rift.     

Estimation of Coulomb stress changes and induced earthquake occurrences prediction in the region of Three Gorges Reservoir,China

In the region of Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) in China, there has been occurrence of several frequent earthquakes of moderate intensity since reservoir impounding occurred in 2003. These earthquakes are generally believed to be induced by reservoir impoundment and water-level variations. Usually, the geo-stress will change, when natural earthquakes occur. Following this principle, this paper adopted the rate and state theory to simulate and estimate Coulomb stress changes in the TGR region and obtained the pattern of Coulomb stress changes with time and the event sequence as well as the distribution of Coulomb stress changes in space. First, the TGR regional catalogue was analyzed and processed, leading to quantification of the magnitude of completeness and all of the parameters that are used in the stress–seismicity inversion process, including the reference seismicity rates, characteristic relaxation time, fault constitutive parameters, and stress rates. Second, the temporal evolution of the stress changes in different time windows was computed and analyzed, and it was found that there is an association between the Coulomb stress changes and rates of increase in the cumulative number of earthquakes. In addition, the earthquake occurred in November 2008 (M _S = 4.1) was analyzed and attempted to simulate the distribution of stress changes in space through the stress–seismicity inversion model. The results proved that the modeled area coincides with the historical area of earthquakes that occurred after 2008. Finally, a prediction was made about the earthquake productivity rates after 2015, which showed a declining earthquake rate over time that ultimately returned to the background seismicity. This result is essentially in agreement with Omori’s law. To conclude, it is rational to use the stress-inversion method to analyze the relationship between induced earthquake seismicity and local stress changes as well as to simulate the area of earthquake occurrence and productivity rates of reservoir-induced earthquakes.     

Global-scale analysis of seismic activity prior to 2004 Sumatra-Andaman mega-earthquake

Following our experience in intermediate-term monitoring of seismicity before large earthquakes worldwide and in some regions we apply a similar approach to the analysis of seismicity on global scale several decades before the December 26, 2004 Sumatra–Andaman mega-earthquake. The Earth lithosphere is being considered as a single whole, representing the ultimate level of the complex Earth's hierarchy. The study brings up the following questions: Are there any anomalies of the global seismicity behaviour observed in advance of the mega-earthquake? Do these anomalies correspond to the global scale seismic patterns similar to those detected on the regional scale before great, major, and strong events? In other words, does the Earth lithosphere considered as a single whole show up an approach of the mega-earthquake in the way typical for events on the smaller levels of hierarchy? The results of our investigation favour the positive answer to the questions. Specifically we found that during the decade before the Sumatra–Andaman mega-earthquake the Earth lithosphere reveals, at least in intermediate-term scale, classical symptoms of instability, which can be depicted by known precursory seismic patterns. These are: (i) transformation of frequency–magnitude distribution, (ii) change in the rate of seismic activity, and (iii) depth redistribution of activity. Moreover changes of dependencies between magnitudes of different types are detected at the same time. The observed global scale patterns of collective behaviour of seismicity may indicate the state of criticality of the Earth lithosphere before the Sumatra–Andaman mega-earthquake.     

Synthesis of seismicity studies for western Alaska

An examination of the Alaskan earthquake catalogs revealed that from 1928 through 1965, twelve earthquakes of magnitudes (M) in the range 5.6 to 7.3 were located in and around Seward Peninsula region of western Alaska. Moreover, a number of earthquakes of M < 5.0 were found to distribute over the same area. Further investigation of the seismicity employing a local seismographic network in the above area showed a higher level of onshore and offshore seismic activity than had been previously recognized. A number of clusters of earthquakes have been identified. Some of them are located in the epicentral areas of past strong earthquakes (M > 5.5) and some are located in areas traversed by mapped faults. The nature of the seismicity as identified with the local network data is primarily crustal over the entire study area. Investigation of focal mechanisms of isolated strong earthquakes or clusters of small earthquakes show normal faulting as the dominant mode of strain energy release in the western part of Alaska. Moreover, in areas lying, approximately, south and north of Kotzebue Sound, the principal components of horizontal stresses tend to orient in the NW-SE and WNW-ESE directions, respectively.     

Late Pleistocene and Holocene paleoseismology of an intraplate seismic zone in a large alluvial valley, the New Madrid seismic zone, Central USA

The New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ) is an intraplate right-lateral strike-slip and thrust fault system contained mostly within the Mississippi Alluvial Valley. The most recent earthquake sequence in the zone occurred in 1811–1812 and had estimated moment magnitudes of 7–8 (e.g., [Johnston, A.C., 1996. Seismic moment assessment of stable continental earthquakes, Part 3: 1811–1812 New Madrid, 1886 Charleston, and 1755 Lisbon. Geophysical Journal International 126, 314–344; Johnston, A.C., Schweig III, E.S, 1996. The enigma of the New Madrid earthquakes of 1811–1812. Annual Reviews of Earth and Planetary Sciences 24, 339–384; Hough, S.E., Armbruster, J.G., Seeber, L., Hough, J.F., 2000. On the modified Mercalli intensities and magnitudes of the New Madrid earthquakes. Journal of Geophysical Research 105 (B10), 23,839–23,864; Tuttle, M.P., 2001. The use of liquefaction features in paleoseismology: Lessons learned in the New Madrid seismic zone, central United States. Journal of Seismology 5, 361–380]). Four earlier prehistoric earthquakes or earthquake sequences have been dated A.D. 1450 ± 150, 900 ± 100, 300 ± 200, and 2350 B.C. ± 200 years using paleoliquefaction features, particularly those associated with native American artifacts, and in some cases surface deformation ([Craven, J. A. 1995. Paleoseismology study in the New Madrid seismic zone using geological and archeological features to constrain ages of liquefaction deposits. M.S thesis, University of Memphis, Memphis, TN, U.S.A.; Tuttle, M.P., Lafferty III, R.H., Guccione, M.J., Schweig III, E.S., Lopinot, N., Cande, R., Dyer-Williams, K., Haynes, M., 1996. Use of archaeology to date liquefaction features and seismic events in the New Madrid seismic zone, central United States. Geoarchaeology 11, 451–480; Guccione, M.J., Mueller, K., Champion, J., Shepherd, S., Odhiambo, B., 2002b. Stream response to repeated co-seismic folding, Tiptonville dome, western Tennessee. Geomorphology 43(2002), 313–349; Tuttle, M.P., Schweig, E.S., Sims, J.D., Lafferty, R.H., Wolf, L.W., Haynes, M.L., 2002. The earthquake potential of the New Madrid seismic zone, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, v 92, n. 6, p. 2080–2089; Tuttle, M.P., Schweig III, E.S., Campbell, J., Thomas, P.M., Sims, J.D., Lafferty III, R.H., 2005. Evidence for New Madrid earthquakes in A.D. 300 and 2350 B.C. Seismological Research Letters 76, 489–501]). The two most recent prehistoric and the 2350 B.C. events were probably also earthquake sequences with approximately the same magnitude as the historic sequence.Surface deformation (faulting and folding) in an alluvial setting provides many examples of stream response to gradient changes that can also be used to date past earthquake events. Stream responses include changes in channel morphology, deviations in the channel path from the regional gradient, changes in the direction of flow, anomalous longitudinal profiles, and aggradation or incision of the channel ([Merritts, D., Hesterberg, T, 1994. Stream networks and long-term surface uplift in the New Madrid seismic zone. Science 265, 1081–1084.; Guccione, M.J., Mueller, K., Champion, J., Shepherd, S., Odhiambo, B., 2002b. Stream response to repeated co-seismic folding, Tiptonville dome, western Tennessee. Geomorphology 43 (2002), 313–349]). Uplift or depression of the floodplain affects the frequency of flooding and thus the thickness and style of vertical accretion or drowning of a meander scar to form a lake. Vegetation may experience trauma, mortality, and in some cases growth enhancement due to ground failure during the earthquake and hydrologic changes after the earthquake ([VanArdale, R.B., Stahle, D.W., Cleaveland, M.K., Guccione, M.J., 1998. Earthquake signals in tree-ring data from the New Madrid seismic zone and implications for paleoseismicity. Geology 26, 515–518]). Identification and dating these physical and biologic responses allows source areas to be identified and seismic events to be dated.Seven fault segments are recognized by microseismicity and geomorphology. Surface faulting has been recognized at three of these segments, Reelfoot fault, New Madrid North fault, and Bootheel fault. The Reelfoot fault is a compressive stepover along the strike-slip fault and has up to 11 m of surface relief ([Carlson, S.D., 2000. Formation and geomorphic history of Reelfoot Lake: insight into the New Madrid seismic zone. M.S. Thesis, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, Arkansas, U.S.A]) deforming abandoned and active Mississippi River channels ([Guccione, M.J., Mueller, K., Champion, J., Shepherd, S., Odhiambo, B., 2002b. Stream response to repeated co-seismic folding, Tiptonville dome, western Tennessee. Geomorphology 43 (2002), 313–349]). The New Madrid North fault apparently has only strike-slip motion and is recognized by modern microseismicity, geomorphic anomalies, and sand cataclasis ([Baldwin, J.N., Barron A.D., Kelson, K.I., Harris, J.B., Cashman, S., 2002. Preliminary paleoseismic and geophysical investigation of the North Farrenburg lineament: primary tectonic deformation associated with the New Madrid North Fault?. Seismological Research Letters 73, 393–413]). The Bootheel fault, which is not identified by the modern microseismicity, is associated with extensive liquefaction and offset channels ([Guccione, M.J., Marple, R., Autin, W.J., 2005, Evidence for Holocene displacements on the Bootheel fault (lineament) in southeastern Missouri: Seismotectonic implications for the New Madrid region. Geological Society of America Bulletin 117, 319–333]). The fault has dominantly strike-slip motion but also has a vertical component of slip. Other recognized surface deformation includes relatively low-relief folding at Big Lake/Manila high ([Guccione, M.J., VanArdale, R.B., Hehr, L.H., 2000. Origin and age of the Manila high and associated Big Lake “Sunklands”, New Madrid seismic zone, northeastern Arkansas. Geological Society of America Bulletin 112, 579–590]) and Lake St. Francis/Marked Tree high ([Guccione, M.J., VanArsdale, R.B., 1995. Origin and age of the St. Francis Sunklands using drainage patterns and sedimentology. Final report submitted to the U. S. Geological Survey, Award Number 1434-93-G-2354, Washington D.C.]), both along the subsurface Blytheville arch. Deformation at each of the fault segments does not occur during each earthquake event, indicating that earthquake sources have varied throughout the Holocene.     

Large earthquakes in the New Guinea-Solomon Islands area, 1873–1972

A catalogue of 1873–1972 earthquakes with M > 6.9 for the New Guinea—Solomon Islands region (130–165° E) is compiled. There are 152 events listed. Duda's (1965) results for 1900–1968 are improved for the Papua New Guinea area (141–156° E) because of the availability of historical data for that area.Although there is evidence of rapid Holocene uplift in the main seismic zones, there is little historical evidence for visible uplift or subsidence resulting directly from modern major earthquakes. Coastal subsidences commonly reported as a result of earthquakes are of smaller extent and appear to be due to settlement. However, the occurrence of tsunamigenic earthquakes does suggest that surface deformations do take place off-shore.Using Davies and Brune's (1971) method, regional fault slip rates over 5° -segments of the shallow seismic zone are determined from the seismicity catalogue. The slip rate for the island of New Guinea (Gutenberg and Richter's Region 16) is found to be at least 4.4 cm/y which is almost double the very anomalously low rate of 2.3 cm/y found by Davies and Brune (1971). If allowance is made for shear movement without seismicity and for the approximately ratio of dip-slip versus strike-slip faulting indicated by fault plane solutions, the agreement with Le Pichon's (1970) approach value of 10.7 cm/y for the Pacific—India (Australia) plates is reasonable. The fault slip rate in the area between east New Britain and Bougainville at the Pacific—Bismarck—Solomon triple junction is extremely high (20.6 cm/y at least). The smallest slip rate (1.5 cm/y) is found for westernmost New Guinea (130–135° E).Temporal cumulative summation of moments curves show a periodicity of approximately 25 years in the seismic activity at the triple junction (150–155° E). Elsewhere the rate of seismic activity is aperiodic.     

Implications of north pacific plate tectonics in central Alaska: Focal mechanisms of earthquakes

The focal mechanisms for 86 selected earthquakes (3.0 m_b 5.5) located in central Alaska have been investigated from P-wave first motions; the data were gathered by local seismic networks. The results show a depth-dependent characteristic to the fault-plane solutions. For earthquakes having focal depths shallower than 60–70 km, the focal mechanisms indicate either strike-slip or normal faults, while for earthquakes with foci at intermediate depths the focal mechanisms correspond to thrust faults. The nature of the seismicity indicates the hinge line of the Pacific lithospheric plate under the study area to be striking N17°E from Cook Inlet towards interior Alaska. The comparison of the focal mechanisms with the seismicity shows that the strike-slip and normal faults are the predominant processes of stress release along the shallow section of the plate. The earthquakes with intermediate foci systematically occur along the inclined section of the plate. If the gently dipping nodal planes for these earthquakes are chosen as the fault planes, the focal mechanisms correspond to underthrust motions at the foci. In these, the slip vectors are oriented either to the west or north with the resultant being in the N30°W direction. The tension axes for the underthrust solutions are also found to be parallel to the local dip of the plate, indicating that the subducted plate in interior Alaska is undergoing gravitational sinking.