Landslide susceptibility zonation using GIS and evidential belief function model

The main goal of this paper is to generate a landslide susceptibility map through evidential belief function (EBF) model by using Geographic Information System (GIS) for Qianyang County, Shaanxi Province, China. At first, a detailed landslide inventory map was prepared, and the following ten landslide-conditioning factors were collected: slope angle, slope aspect, curvature, plan curvature, profile curvature, altitude, distance to rivers, geomorphology, lithology, and rainfall. The landslides were detected from the interpretation of aerial photographs and supported by field surveys. A total of 81 landslides were randomly split into the following two parts: the training dataset 70 % (56 landslides) were used for establishing the model and the remaining 30 % (25 landslides) were used for the model validation. The ArcGIS was used to analyze landslide-conditioning factors and evaluate landslide susceptibility; as a result, a landslide susceptibility map was generated by using EBF and ArcGIS 10.0, thus divided into the following five susceptibility classes: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. Finally, when we validated the accuracy of the landslide susceptibility map, both the success-rate and prediction-rate curve methods were applied. The results reveal that a final susceptibility map has the success rate of 83.31 % and the prediction rate of 79.41 %.     

Land subsidence susceptibility mapping at Kinta Valley (Malaysia) using the evidential belief function model in GIS

Land subsidence is one of the frequent geological hazards worldwide. Urban areas and agricultural industries are the entities most affected by the consequences of land subsidence. The main objective of this study was to estimate the land subsidence (sinkhole) hazards at the Kinta Valley of Perak, Malaysia, using geographic information system and remote sensing techniques. To start, land subsidence locations were observed by surveying measurements using GPS and using the tabular data, which were produced as coordinates of each sinkhole incident. Various land subsidence conditioning factors were used such as altitude, slope, aspect, lithology, distance from the fault, distance from the river, normalized difference vegetation index, soil type, stream power index, topographic wetness index, and land use/cover. In this article, a data-driven technique of an evidential belief function (EBF), which is in the category of multivariate statistical analysis, was used to map the land subsidence-prone areas. The frequency ratio (FR) was performed as an efficient bivariate statistical analysis method in order compare it with the acquired results from the EBF analysis. The probability maps were acquired and the results of the analysis validated by the area under the (ROC) curve using the testing land subsidence locations. The results indicated that the FR model could produce a 71.16 % prediction rate, while the EBF showed better prediction accuracy with a rate of 73.63 %. Furthermore, the success rate was measured and accuracies of 75.30 and 79.45 % achieved for FR and EBF, respectively. These results can produce an understanding of the nature of land subsidence as well as promulgate public awareness of such geo-hazards to decrease human and economic losses.     

A comparative study on the landslide susceptibility mapping using evidential belief function and weights of evidence models

The purpose of this study is to produce landslide susceptibility map of a landslide-prone area (Daguan County, China) by evidential belief function (EBF) model and weights of evidence (WoE) model to compare the results obtained. For this purpose, a landslide inventory map was constructed mainly based on earlier reports and aerial photographs, as well as, by carrying out field surveys. A total of 194 landslides were mapped. Then, the landslide inventory was randomly split into a training dataset; 70% (136 landslides) for training the models and the remaining 30% (58 landslides) was used for validation purpose. Then, a total number of 14 conditioning factors, such as slope angle, slope aspect, general curvature, plan curvature, profile curvature, altitude, distance from rivers, distance from roads, distance from faults, lithology, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), sediment transport index (STI), stream power index (SPI), and topographic wetness index (TWI) were used in the analysis. Subsequently, landslide susceptibility maps were produced using the EBF and WoE models. Finally, the validation of landslide susceptibility map was accomplished with the area under the curve (AUC) method. The success rate curve showed that the area under the curve for EBF and WoE models were of 80.19% and 80.75% accuracy, respectively. Similarly, the validation result showed that the susceptibility map using EBF model has the prediction accuracy of 80.09%, while for WoE model, it was 79.79%. The results of this study showed that both landslide susceptibility maps obtained were successful and would be useful for regional spatial planning as well as for land cover planning.     

Assessing the spatial probability of landslides using GIS and informative value model in the Bamenda highlands

Landslides are a major natural hazard in the Bamenda highlands of Cameroon, and their occurrence in this region has most often been studied using qualitative methods. The aim of this research is to quantitatively assess the spatial probability of landslides using GIS and the informative value model. Landslide inventory was done through literature review, aerial photo-interpretation, participatory GIS and field survey. Six geo-environmental factors including slope, curvature, aspect, land use, lithology and geomorphology were used as landslide conditioning (static) factors. The susceptibility of the area to future landslide events was assessed by making a correlation between past landslides and geo-environmental factors using the informative value model. The landslide inventory involving 110 landslides was divided into two equal groups using random division criterion and was used to train and validate the model. The analysis showed that slope and land use are the most important causal factors of landslides in the area. The susceptibility index map predicted most landslides to occur around the steep slopes of the Bamenda escarpment that is being used for multiple anthropic activities. The training model had a success rate of 87%, and the validation model had a prediction rate of 90%. The prediction rate curve shows that 44, 32, 18 and 6% of future landslides will occur on 3, 8, 21 and 68% of the study area. The model correctly classified 89% of unstable areas and 81% of the stable areas with an accuracy rate of 0.90. This quantitative result complement other qualitative assessment results that show the Bamenda escarpment zone as a high-risk area. However, the area susceptible to landslide in this study goes beyond what earlier studies had indicated as houses and other infrastructure were found on old landslide sites whose scars have been eroded by human activities. This new input thus improves the quality of information placed at the disposal of civil protection units and land use managers during decision making.     

A new approach for forest fire risk modeling using fuzzy AHP and GIS in Hyrcanian forests of Iran

The presented research was performed in order to model the fire risk in a part of Hyrcanian forests of Iran. The fuzzy sets integrated with analytic hierarchy process (AHP) in a decision-making algorithm using geographic information system (GIS) was used to model the fire risk in the study area. The used factors included four major criteria (topographic, biologic, climatic, and human factors) and their 17 sub-criteria. Fuzzy AHP method was used for estimating the importance (weight) of the effective factors in forest fire. Based on this modeling method, the expert ideas were used to express the relative importance and priority of the major criteria and sub-criteria in forest fire risk in the study area. The expert ideas mean was analyzed based on fuzzy extent analysis. Then, the fuzzy weights of criteria and sub-criteria were obtained. The major criteria models and fire risk model were presented based on these fuzzy weights. On the other hand, the spatial data of 17 sub-criteria were provided and organized in GIS to obtain the sub-criteria maps. Each sub-criterion map was converted to raster format and it was reclassified based on risk of its classes to fire occurrence. Then, all sub-criteria maps were converted to fuzzy format using fuzzy membership function in GIS. The fuzzy map of each major criterion (topographic, biologic, climatic, and human criteria) was obtained by weighted overlay of its sub-criteria fuzzy maps considering to major criterion model in GIS. Finally, the fuzzy map of fire risk was obtained by weighted overlay of major criteria fuzzy maps considering to fire risk model in GIS. The actual fire map was used for validation of fire risk model and map. The results showed that the fuzzy estimated weights of human, biologic, climatic, and topographic criteria in fire risk were 0.301, 0.2595, 0.2315, and 0.208, respectively. The results obtained from the fire risk map showed that 38.74% of the study area has very high and high risk for fire occurrence. Results of validation of the fire risk map showed that 80% of the actual fires were located in the very high and high risk areas in fire risk map. It can show the acceptable accuracy of the fire risk model and map obtained from fuzzy AHP in this study. The obtained fire risk map can be used as a decision support system for predicting of the future fires in the study area.     

基于概率积分模型的开采沉陷预计系统设计与实现

为了能最大限度的减少由于开采沉陷而造成的损失,采用概率积分模型针对淮南矿区进行了沉陷预计系统的设计和实现,结合数字矿山专业GIS平台lrgis3.0绘制出各种移动变形等值线图,直观准确地反应了预计区域的变形情况。     

Spatial prediction of blood lead levels in children in Toledo,OH using fuzzy sets and the site-specific IEUBK model

Lead poisoning in young children remains a concern in many urban areas, even 30 years after the banning of Pb-based paint and leaded gasoline. In 2010, 16.6% of 6550 children tested in Toledo, OH had blood lead levels (BLLs) above the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) lead poisoning reference level of 5 μg/dL. The aim of this study was to spatially quantify the risk of lead poisoning to children in Toledo, OH and to reduce lead poisoning risk through educational outreach and citizen science.The educational outreach component of the study was implemented through the sampling strategy. Students in Toledo area schools were instructed on proper USEPA soil sampling guidelines and were asked to collect soil samples from their residential yards. A subsample of 81 soils was analyzed for total lead and bioavailable lead. Site-specific total lead and bioavailability data were used in the USEPA Integrated Exposure Uptake and Biokinetic (IEUBK) model to predict BLLs. Predicted BLLs were then used to extract expert knowledge for development of an index model using analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and weighted linear combination (WLC). Expert knowledge was used to standardize predictor datasets and to produce continuous BLL risk for each predictor variable. Fuzzy sets were implemented in the model to account for uncertainties in the sampling method.It was found that 8.6% of sampled sites had total soil lead concentrations above the USEPA action level of 400 mg/kg, but 28.4% of soil samples yielded predicted elevated BLLs, suggesting the action level is set too high. The spatial variables influencing risk of lead poisoning from most important to least important were age of housing, road density, percent impervious surfaces, home value, household income and soil type. The highest risk for lead poisoning was in the city center and decreased moving towards the rural areas surrounding the city. The index model paired with the unique outreach driven sampling approach proved successful both at providing quality soil samples and educating the community about the ongoing risks of lead in soil.     

Spatial assessment of the potential of groundwater quality using fuzzy AHP in GIS

In this study, fuzzy AHP method is used for extracting the water quality indicators based on the Schuler standard and World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines during a 20-year period. For this purpose, the best fit of the zoning model was performed. Furthermore, by comparing the standard errors, the continuous Raster layer was extracted from the important parameters used in generating the qualitative potential assessment index. The classified layer was generated by integrating continuous layers in the GIS environment and with the use of Python programming. The similarity of the outputs of both methods indicates the presence of large sections of aquifers in the middle and southwestern regions of Iran in the “temporarily drinkable” and “bad” classes. The calculations showed that the majority of aquifers that were located in the “inappropriate” class during the first 10 years fell to less valuable class types. Based on the results of the model, there is a direct correlation between the drop in water resources and the decline in the quality indices. In addition, in the Urmia and Bushehr coastal aquifers, due to excessive water withdrawal and salty water penetration, the quality of the table water is in critical condition. Based on the results of the research, the aquifers in the range of Zagros and Alborz mountains show the least change in water quality. The reason for this is the depth of the aquifer and the ability to recharge it.     

Doline probability map using logistic regression and GIS technology in the central Ebro Basin (Spain)

In the surroundings of Zaragoza, karstification processes are especially intense in covered karst areas where fluvial terraces lie directly on Tertiary evaporites. Since the beginning of Quaternary, these processes have lead to the development of collapse and subsidence dolines with a wide range of sizes, which have significant economic impacts. To reduce economic impact and increase safety, a regional analysis of this phenomenon is needed for spatial management. Therefore, a probability map of dolines was developed using logistic regression and geographic information system (GIS) techniques. This paper covers the selection of input data, manipulation of data using the GIS technology, and the use of logistic regression to generate a doline probability map. The primary variable in the doline development in this area is geomorphology, represented by the location of endorheic areas and different terrace levels. Secondary variables are the presence of irrigation and the water table gradient.     

基于GIS技术的鲁西铜石金矿聚集区综合信息成矿预测模型

鲁西铜石地区是20世纪末期新发现的金矿聚集区,地质工作程度较高。为指导成矿预测和找矿勘探,运用GIS信息技术建立了铜石地区综合信息成矿预测模型：构造控矿因子为NNW、NE、NW和EW向线型构造异常的Buffer半径1.2km;岩浆岩控矿因子为岩体的外边界以1～3km为半径范围;较强的磁力梯度带,低异常对隐伏岩体、构造的识别有指示作用;相对重力低异常,反映了铜石杂岩体的分布范围,相对重力高和条带状的低缓异常则主要反映了寒武纪地层和泰山岩群山草峪组;金元素的地球化学异常指标是寻找金矿床的最直接信息,Ag、Fe、Cu、Zn、Pb、As、Te等多种元素异常以及组合异常也可作为其重要的指示标志。     

Tsunami vulnerability assessment in urban areas using numerical model and GIS

Natural disasters can neither be predicted nor prevented. Urban areas with a high population density coupled with the construction of man-made structures are subjected to greater levels of risk to life and property in the event of natural hazards. One of the major and densely populated urban areas in the east coast of India is the city of Chennai (Madras), which was severely affected by the 2004 Tsunami, and mitigation efforts were severely dampened due to the non-availability of data on the vulnerability on the Chennai coast to tsunami hazard. Chennai is prone to coastal hazards and hence has hazard maps on its earth-quake prone areas, cyclone prone areas and flood prone areas but no information on areas vulnerable to tsunamis. Hence, mapping has to be done of the areas where the tsunami of December 2004 had directly hit and flooded the coastal areas in Chennai in order to develop tsunami vulnerability map for coastal Chennai. The objective of this study is to develop a GIS-based tsunami vulnerability map for Chennai by using a numerical model of tsunami propagation together with documented observations and field measurements of the evidence left behind by the tsunami in December 2004. World-renowned and the second-longest tourist beach in the world “Marina” present in this region witnessed maximum death toll due to its flat topography, resulting in an inundation of about 300 m landward with high flow velocity of the order of 2 m/s.     

An assessment of soil erosion probability and erosion rate in a tropical mountainous watershed using remote sensing and GIS

Remote sensing data and Geographical Information System (GIS) has been integrated with the weighted index overlay (WIO) method and E ₃₀ model for the identification and delineation of soil erosion susceptibility zones and the assessment of rate of soil erosion in the mountainous sub-watershed of River Manimala in Kerala (India). Soil erosion is identified as the one of the most serious environmental problems in the human altered mountainous environment. The reliability of estimated soil erosion susceptibility and soil loss is based on how accurately the different factors were estimated or prepared. In the present analysis, factors that are considered to be influence the soil erosion are: land use/land cover, NDVI, landform, drainage density, drainage frequency, lineament frequency, slope, and relative relief. By the WIO analysis, the area is divided into zones representing low (33.30%), moderate (33.70%), and high (33%) erosion proneness. The annual soil erosion rate of the area under investigation was calculated by carefully determining its various parameters and erosion for each of the pixels were estimated individually. The spatial pattern thus created for the area indicates that the average annual rate of soil erosion in the area was ranging from 0.04 mm yr⁻¹ to 61.80 mm yr⁻¹. The high soil erosion probability and maximum erosion rate was observed in areas with high terrain alteration, high relief and slopes with the intensity and duration of heavy precipitation during the monsoons.     

Regional prediction of landslide hazard using probability analysis of intense rainfall in the Hoa Binh province, Vietnam

The main objective of this study is to assess regional landslide hazards in the Hoa Binh province of Vietnam. A landslide inventory map was constructed from various sources with data mainly for a period of 21 years from 1990 to 2010. The historic inventory of these failures shows that rainfall is the main triggering factor in this region. The probability of the occurrence of episodes of rainfall and the rainfall threshold were deduced from records of rainfall for the aforementioned period. The rainfall threshold model was generated based on daily and cumulative values of antecedent rainfall of the landslide events. The result shows that 15-day antecedent rainfall gives the best fit for the existing landslides in the inventory. The rainfall threshold model was validated using the rainfall and landslide events that occurred in 2010 that were not considered in building the threshold model. The result was used for estimating temporal probability of a landslide to occur using a Poisson probability model. Prior to this work, five landslide susceptibility maps were constructed for the study area using support vector machines, logistic regression, evidential belief functions, Bayesian-regularized neural networks, and neuro-fuzzy models. These susceptibility maps provide information on the spatial prediction probability of landslide occurrence in the area. Finally, landslide hazard maps were generated by integrating the spatial and the temporal probability of landslide. A total of 15 specific landslide hazard maps were generated considering three time periods of 1, 3, and 5 years.     

Spatial prediction of soil erosion susceptibility: an evaluation of the maximum entropy model

Soil erosion is considered as the most widespread form of soil degradation which causes serious environmental problems. This study investigates the performance of the maximum entropy (ME) in mapping rill erosion susceptibility in the Golgol watershed, Ilam province, Iran. To this end, ten rill erosion conditioning factors were selected to be employed in the modelling process based on an investigation of the literature. These layers are: elevation, slope percent, aspect, stream power index, topographic wetness index, distance from streams, plan curvature, lithology, land use, and soil. Then, a training dataset of rill erosion locations was used for modelling this phenomenon. The area under receiver operating characteristics curve was used for evaluating the performance of the ME model. In addition, Modified Pacific South-West Inter Agency Committee (MPSIAC) framework was applied and sediment yield was determined for different hydrological units in the study area. At last, Jackknife test was implemented to show the contribution of the factors in the modelling process. The results depicted that area under ROC curve for training and validation datasets were 0.867, and 0.794, respectively. Therefore, this conclusion can be achieved that ME worked well and could be a good tool for generating rill erosion susceptibility maps and its output could be employed for soil conservation in similar areas.