Decision-support systems for groundwater protection: innovative tools for resource management

Governmental authorities are forced by law to make decisions within the framework of European, national and regional directives in the fields of spatial planning, groundwater and environmental protection. These tasks can be supported by a decision-support system, which integrates data from various sources and helps to make decision processes more effective and transparent. Basic work for such a decision support system has been done in a transnational and interdisciplinary project (Interreg II C: KATER), including metadata definition, metadata system, cartographic tools and GIS tools. The direct integration of these tools and information in the decision process will be implemented in the next few years (project KATER II).     

Integrating risk perceptions into flood risk management: Trinidad case study

Natural Hazards - Flooding disasters are frequent and devastating events in Trinidad. Moderate amounts of precipitation burst riverbanks in central business districts, cities, and towns within the...     

Qualitative hazard and risk assessment of landslides: a practical framework for a case study in China

Natural Hazards - Landslides are presented in various types; some of which are unique or completely different from those in other countries due to geological conditions in China. Baoji City in...     

Spatiotemporal dynamics: the need for an innovative approach in mountain hazard risk management

Starting with an overview on losses due to mountain hazards in the Russian Federation and the European Alps, the question is raised why a substantial number of events still are recorded—despite considerable efforts in hazard mitigation and risk reduction. The main reason for this paradox lies in a missing dynamic risk-based approach, and it is shown that these dynamics have different roots: firstly, neglecting climate change and systems dynamics, the development of hazard scenarios is based on the static approach of design events. Secondly, due to economic development and population dynamics, the elements at risk exposed are subject to spatial and temporal changes. These issues are discussed with respect to temporal and spatial demands. As a result, it is shown how risk is dynamic on a long-term and short-term scale, which has to be acknowledged in the risk concept if this concept is targeted at a sustainable development of mountain regions. A conceptual model is presented that can be used for dynamical risk assessment, and it is shown by different management strategies how this model may be converted into practice. Furthermore, the interconnectedness and interaction between hazard and risk are addressed in order to enhance prevention, the level of protection and the degree of preparedness.     

Landslide catastrophes and disaster risk reduction: A GIS framework for landslide prevention and management

A detailed and accurate inventory map of landslides is crucial for quantitative hazard assessment and land planning. Traditional methods relying on change detection and object-oriented approaches have been criticized for their dependence on expert knowledge and subjective factors. Recent advancements in high-resolution satellite imagery, coupled with the rapid development of artificial intelligence, particularly data-driven deep learning algorithms (DL) such as convolutional neural networks (CNN), have provided rich feature indicators for landslide mapping, overcoming previous limitations. In this review paper, 77 representative DL-based landslide detection methods applied in various environments over the past seven years were examined. We analyze the structures of different DL networks, discuss on five main application scenarios, and assess both the advancements and limitations of DL in geological hazard analysis. The results indicated that the increasing number of articles per year reflects growing interest in landslide mapping by artificial intelligence, with U-Net-based structures gaining prominence due to their flexibility in feature extraction and generalization. Finally, we explored the hindrances of DL in landslide hazard research based on the above research content. Challenges such as black-box operations and sample dependence persist, warranting further theoretical research and future application of DL in landslide detection.     

Probability-weighted hazard maps for comparing different flood risk management strategies: a case study

The study proposes an original methodology for producing probability-weighted hazard maps based on an ensemble of numerical simulations. These maps enable one to compare different strategies for flood risk management. The methodology was applied over a 270-km² flood-prone area close to the left levee system of a 28-km reach of the river Reno (Northern Central Italy). This reach is characterised by the presence of a weir that allows controlled flooding of a large flood-prone area during major events. The proposed probability-weighted hazard maps can be used to evaluate how a structural measure such as the mentioned weir alters the spatial variability of flood hazard in the study area. This article shows an application by constructing two different flood hazard maps: a first one which neglects the presence of the weir using a regular levee system instead, and a second one that reflects the actual geometry with the weir. Flood hazard maps were generated by combining the results of several inundation scenarios, simulated by coupling 1D- and 2D-hydrodynamic models.     

路堑边坡全寿命周期风险评估及管理的技术框架

路堑边坡在设计、施工和运营过程中边坡灾害、承灾对象及其成灾模式有较大的不同,将面对不同的风险事件及可能性,需要开展差异化的风险评估和全寿命周期的风险调控。提出一个基于霍尔三维结构的路堑边坡系统分析模型和路堑边坡全寿命周期风险评估及管理的技术框架,在边坡规划设计、施工建造和运营服务这3个典型的工程寿命周期内,阐明风险分析中范围界定、数据采集和信息编目的工作要点,危险性分析中破坏概率的不同定义与分析方法,危害后果分析中承灾体识别、灾害到达承灾体的概率、承灾体的时空概率和易损性等关键指标的定义与确定思路,以及各阶段风险定性与定量估算的适用方法;分别论述在上述3阶段开展边坡风险评价与效益分析、风险调控方案比选及控制规划、风险调控对策实施及监测、校核与修正的技术流程与实施要点;并讨论了风险容许标准的确定原则和提高风险评估精度及可靠性的思路。研究成果初步规范了路堑边坡全寿命周期风险评估及管理的工作流程和技术方案,希望能抛砖引玉,并在实践中逐步发展和完善。     

基于自然灾害风险评价框架的省级地质灾害风险区划方法探讨——以吉林省为例

地质灾害风险区划是地质灾害风险管理与防治的有效手段之一,对于科学防治地质灾害具有重要意义。基于自然灾害风险理论,从致灾因子危险性,承灾体暴露性和脆弱性以及防灾减灾能力(恢复力)等入手,选取评价指标,构建省级地质灾害风险评价模型,对全省地质灾害进行风险区划。该模型在吉林省地质灾害风险区划中应用表明,评价结果合理,与野外调查情况吻合,可以为规划和地质灾害防治等工作提供依据。     

Storm surge prediction with management information systems: A case study of estimating value and observations system

A natural disaster is a major adverse event resulting from the earth’s natural forces. We can now take advantage of information technology (IT) devices to make migration decisions and hazard analysis. The range of IT applications is very wide, and could include robot manufacturing, remote exploration, fuzzy Lyapunov techniques, artificial intelligence, intelligent devices, tension leg platform design, consumer and service quality, and management information systems. Management information systems are especially helpful to medical personnel when carrying out the treatment and medication of patients. Sometimes, though, hospital staff might not have immediate access to a patient’s records such as response to treatments, medication status, or examination results because the computer equipment is not easily portable. In such situations, it is only possible to keep written records, with the data being cataloged or referred to only after returning to the nursing station or office. If the hospital could implement a computerized medical service cart for use in the wards, the above problems would be solved. These computers could use a wireless network system, linked with the central server to access information. The technology now exists and the era of the smart phone has now been entered. Smart phones/tablet PCs could be applied for clinical medical care. For the elderly and patients with chronic diseases, smart health devices designed for home care service are necessary and should be applied as soon as possible. This study designs a wireless physiology signal monitoring system that uses a smart phone with a wireless network apparatus to provide convenient monitoring for patients in the home care service system. The wireless care system is designed for patients who need long-term home care services or assistance with chronic diseases. This paper provides important suggestions to develop ways to connect patients to medical care institutions through the internet.     

污染场地健康风险评价的实例研究

以常州市A厂有机污染调查为依据,采用篇中讨论的污染场地健康风险评价方法综合评价由土壤、空气、地下水污染带来的人群健康风险。综合分析表明,场地目标污染物为4种苯系物,可能对人体产生肝肾病变、鼻上皮组织恶化和运动协调能力降低等非致癌效应;污染物暴露途径主要有3条,分别暴露于厂区人群和饮用厂区下游民井井水的居民。评价结果显示,厂区人群同时遭受皮肤接触污染土壤和呼吸污染空气带来的非致癌危害。4种污染物的多途径同种污染物累计非致癌危害指数分别为甲苯,2·82×10-2;乙苯,4·94×10-2;间对二甲苯,1·21×10-7;异丙苯,1·05×10-7。两途径多污染物非致癌总危害指数分别为4·26×10-5和7·76×10-2,非致癌综合危害指数为7·76×10-2;厂区下游居民饮用遭受污染的地下水,其多污染物非致癌总危害指数为1·55×10-5。各危害指数均小于1,非致癌健康风险较小。     

A method for tsunami risk assessment: a case study for Kamakura,Japan

This paper presents a methodology for tsunami risk assessment, which was applied to a case study in Kamakura, Japan. This methodology was developed in order to evaluate the effectiveness of a risk-reducing system against such hazards, also aiming to demonstrate that a risk assessment is possible for these episodic events. The tsunami risk assessment follows these general steps: (1) determination of the probability of flooding, (2) calculation of flood scenarios, (3) assessment of the consequences and (4) integration into a risk number or graph. The probability of flooding was approximated based on the data provided by local institutes, and the flood scenarios were modeled in 1D using the Simulating WAves till SHore model. Results showed that a tsunami in Kamakura can result in thousands of casualties. Interventions such as improvements in evacuation systems, which would directly reduce the number of casualties, would have a large influence in risk reduction. Although this method has its limits and constraints, it illustrates the value it can add to existing tsunami risk management in Japan.     

Environmental fragility framework for water supply systems: a case study in the Paulista Macro Metropolis area (SE Brazil)

Water resources availability is increasingly constrained, considering the quality and quantity available for use. There is an urgent need of recovering this availability, focusing on the planning and management process of water supply systems. One of the main threats to water resources is related to erosion effects, namely widespread pollution load and the silting of watercourses and reservoirs useful life reduction. The objective of this study was to evaluate water supply systems environmental fragility within the Paulista Macro Metropolis area and to use the results to develop environmental zone classes to orient territorial planning. The study was conducted in seven superficial water supply systems of the aforementioned region. Environmental fragility evaluation was focused on four environmental variables that represent natural vulnerability to erosion, and 2015 land cover map to delineate human influence on erosive processes. Results indicate that Tietê River water supply systems, namely Piracicaba, Capivari and Jundiaí (PCJ) and Itupararanga systems, can be considered the most fragile water supply systems in the study area. The environmental fragility map was used to derive the environmental zoning map, including conservation and priority areas, suitable regions for agriculture expansion, and areas with high needs for restoration efforts. In addition, environmental fragility framework herein can be viewed as a model with high replication potential for regional planning and management in that land cover can be manipulated to minimize environment natural vulnerability, guiding territorial occupation toward a more sustainable landscape design, which subsidizes water resources multiple uses.     

自然灾害风险防控和应急救援平台构建与实践

为了适应当前常态减灾与非常态救灾情景下信息化管理的深度应用,提出一种面向自然灾害突发事件应对过程的业务平台的设计方案。采用数据交换方法,实现多部门之间的信息共享;建立自然灾害综合数据库,实现统一数据源管理和实时更新;采用智能移动终端推送自然灾害信息,实现政府-社会-公众多元协同;基于网络地理信息系统实时显示自然灾害风险状况,实现自然灾害风险监测预警、综合研判和应急指挥应用。该平台有效提升了自然灾害风险防控的管理水平和应急管理的工作效率,真正实现了跨领域、多灾种、全流程的自然灾害风险闭环管理和精准管控的目标。     

A risk analysis for floods and lahars: case study in the Cordillera Central of Colombia

The glacier-covered Nevado del Tolima in the Colombian Cordillera Central is an active volcano with potential lahars that might be more hazardous than those on Nevado del Ruiz. Furthermore, rainfall-triggered floods and landslides notoriously and severely affect the region. For effective disaster prevention, a risk analysis is of primary importance. We present here a risk analysis methodology that is based on the assessment of lahar and rainfall-related flood hazard scenarios and different aspects of vulnerability. The methodology is applied for populated centres in the Combeima valley and the regional capital Ibagué (~500,000 inhabitants). Lahar scenarios of 0.5, 1, 5, and 15?million m³ volume are based on melting of 1, 2, 10, and 25?% of ice, firn and snow, respectively, due to volcanic activity and subsequent lahar formation. For flood modelling, design floods with a return period of 10 and 100?years were calculated. Vulnerability is assessed considering physical vulnerability, operationalized by market values of dwelling parcels and population density, whereas social vulnerability is expressed by the age structure of the population and poverty. Standardization of hazard and vulnerability allows for the integration into a risk equation, resulting in five-level risk maps, with additional quantitative estimate of damage. The probability of occurrence of lahars is low, but impacts would be disastrous, with about 20,000 people and more directly exposed to it. Floods are much more recurrent, but affected areas are generally smaller. High-risk zones in Ibagué are found in urban areas close to the main river with high social vulnerability. The methodology has proven to be a suitable tool to provide a first overview of spatial distribution of risk which is considered by local and regional authorities for disaster risk reduction. The harmonization of technical-engineering risk analysis and approaches from social sciences into common reference concepts should be further developed.     

中国农业广义水资源利用系数及时空格局分析

为统一核算区域蓝水、绿水资源有效利用程度,构建了农业广义水资源利用系数（E_g）指标,核算中国31个省区粮食生产中的E_g,并基于空间自相关和通径分析方法对其时空格局及成因进行分析。中国1998-2010年E_g为0.588,大部分省区呈随时间增大趋势;E_g相似的省区在空间上显著地聚集,高值省区聚集于西部,低值省区集中于东南地区,且空间聚集现象呈减弱趋势;农业生产管理水平对E_g的影响大于气候要素,社会经济条件影响最小。结合广义水资源利用状况,西南省区可扩大粮食生产规模以发挥E_g较大优势,东北与华北粮食主产区应通过提高E_g以保障粮食安全和水资源可持续利用。研究可发展农业用水效率评价理论同时为国家粮食生产与水资源管理策略的制定提供参考。     

A step beyond susceptibility: an adaptation of risk framework for monetary risk estimation of gully erosion

Natural Hazards - In an effort to improve the previous gully susceptibility assessments in Iran, we attempted to conglomerate the notions of susceptibility, vulnerability, and exposure associated...