A comparison of one‐ and two‐dimensional approaches to modelling flood inundation over complex upland floodplains

A much understudied aspect of flood inundation is examined, i.e. upland environments with topographically complex floodplains. Although the presence of high‐resolution topographic data (e.g. lidar) has improved the quality of river flood inundation predictions, the optimum dimensionality of hydraulic models for this purpose has yet to be fully evaluated for situations of both topographic and topological (i.e. the connectivity of floodplain features) complexity. In this paper, we present the comparison of three treatments of upland flood inundation using: (a) a one‐dimensional (1D) model (HEC‐RAS v. 3·1·2) with the domain defined as series of extended cross‐sections; (b) the same 1D model, but with the floodplain defined by a series of storage cells, hydraulically connected to the main river channel and other storage cells on the floodplain according to floodplain topological characteristics; (c) a two‐dimensional (2D) diffusion wave treatment, again with explicit representation of floodplain structural features. The necessary topographic and topological data were derived using lidar and Ordnance Survey Landline data. The three models were tested on a 6 km upland reach of the River Wharfe, UK. The models were assessed by comparison with measured inundation extent. The results showed that both the extended cross‐section and the storage cell 1D modes were conceptually problematic. They also resulted in poorer model predictions, requiring incorrect parameterization of the main river to floodplain flux in order to approach anything like the level of agreement observed when the 2D diffusion wave treatment was assessed. We conclude that a coupled 1D–2D treatment is likely to provide the best modelling approach, with currently available technology, for complex floodplain configurations. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Flow hydraulics and geomorphic effects of glacial‐lake outburst floods in the Mount Everest region,Nepal

Glacial‐lake outburst floods (GLOFs) on 3 September 1977 and 4 August 1985 dramatically modified channels and valleys in the Mount Everest region of Nepal by eroding, transporting, and depositing large quantities of sediment for tens of kilometres along the flood routes. The GLOF discharges were 7 to 60 times greater than normal floods derived from snowmelt runoff, glacier meltwater, and monsoonal precipitation (referred to as seasonal high flow floods, SHFFs). Specific stream power values ranged from as low as 1900 W m^?2 in wide, low‐gradient valley segments to as high as 51 700 W m^?2 in narrow, high‐gradient valley segments bounded by bedrock. Along the upper 16 km of the GLOF routes, the reach‐averaged specific stream power of the GLOFs was 3·2 to 8·0 times greater than the reach‐averaged specific stream power of the SHFFs. The greatest geomorphic change occurred along the upper 10 to 16 km of the GLOF routes, where the ratio between the GLOF specific stream power and the SHFF specific stream power was the greatest, there was an abundant supply of sediment, and channel/valley boundaries consisted primarily of unconsolidated sediment. Below 11 to 16 km from the source area, the geomorphic effects of the GLOFs were reduced because of the lower specific stream power ratio between the GLOFs and SHFFs, more resistant bedrock flow boundaries, reduced sediment supply, and the occurrence of past GLOFs. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rapid expansion of glacial lakes caused by climate and glacier retreat in the Central Himalayas

Glacial lake outburst floods are among the most serious natural hazards in the Himalayas. Such floods are of high scientific and political importance because they exert trans‐boundary impacts on bordering countries. The preparation of an updated inventory of glacial lakes and the analysis of their evolution are an important first step in assessment of hazards from glacial lake outbursts. Here, we report the spatiotemporal developments of the glacial lakes in the Poiqu River basin, a trans‐boundary basin in the Central Himalayas, from 1976 to 2010 based on multi‐temporal Landsat images. Studied glacial lakes are classified as glacier‐fed lakes and non‐glacier‐fed lakes according to their hydrologic connection to glacial watersheds. A total of 119 glacial lakes larger than 0.01 km² with an overall surface area of 20.22 km² (±10.8%) were mapped in 2010, with glacier‐fed lakes being predominant in both number (69, 58.0%) and area (16.22 km², 80.2%). We found that lakes connected to glacial watersheds (glacier‐fed lakes) significantly expanded (122.1%) from 1976 to 2010, whereas lakes not connected to glacial watersheds (non‐glacier‐fed lakes) remained stable (+2.8%) during the same period. This contrast can be attributed to the impact of glaciers. Retreating glaciers not only supply meltwater to lakes but also leave space for them to expand. Compared with other regions of the Hindu Kush Himalayas (HKH), the lake area per glacier area in the Poiqu River basin was the highest. This observation might be attributed to the different climate regimes and glacier status along the HKH. The results presented in this study confirm the significant role of glacier retreat on the evolution of glacial lakes. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An assessment of conditions before and after the 1998 Tam Pokhari outburst in the Nepal Himalaya and an evaluation of the future outburst hazard

On 3 September 1998, a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) that originated from Tam Pokhari occurred in the Hinku valley of the eastern Nepal Himalaya. This study analyses the lake's geomorphic and hydrologic conditions prior to the outburst, and evaluates the conditions that could contribute to a future flood through photogrammetric techniques. We processed high‐resolution Corona KH‐4A (2.7 m) and ALOS PRISM (2.5 m) stereo‐images taken before and after the GLOF event, and produced detailed topographic maps (2‐m contour interval) and DEMs (5 m × 5 m). We (re‐) constructed lake water surfaces before (4410 ± 5 m) and after (4356 ± 5 m) the outburst, and reliably estimated the lake water surface lowering (54 ± 5 m) and the water volume released (19.5 ± 2.2 × 10⁶ m³) from the lake, showing good agreement with the results obtained from ground‐based measurements. The most relevant conditions that may have influenced the catastrophic drainage of Tam Pokhari in 1998 include the presence of: (i) a narrow (75 ± 6 m), steep (up to 50°) and high (120 ± 5 m) moraine dam; (ii) high lake level (8 ± 5 m of freeboard) and (iii) a steep overhanging glacier (>40°). The lake outburst substantially altered the immediate area, creating a low and wide (>500 m) outwash plain below the lake, a wide lake outlet channel (~50 m) and a gentle channel slope (~3–5°). Our new data suggest that the likelihood of a future lake outburst is low. Our results demonstrate that the datasets produced by photogrammetric techniques provide an excellent representation of micro‐landform features on moraine dams, lake water surfaces and the changes in both over time, thereby allowing highly accurate pre‐ and post‐GLOF (volumetric) change analysis of glacial lakes. Furthermore, it enables precise measurement of several predictive variables of GLOFs that can be useful for identifying potentially dangerous glacial lakes or prioritizing them for detailed field investigations. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of a rock avalanche on a moraine‐dammed proglacial lake: Laguna Safuna Alta,Cordillera Blanca,Peru

Moraines that dam proglacial lakes pose an increasing hazard to communities in the Andes and other mountain ranges. The moraines are prone to failure through collapse, overtopping by lake waters or the effect of displacement waves resulting from ice and rock avalanches. Resulting floods have led to the loss of thousands of lives in the Cordillera Blanca mountains of Peru alone in the last 100 years. On 22 April 2002 a rock avalanche occurred immediately to the south‐west of Laguna Safuna Alta, in the Cordillera Blanca. The geomorphic evidence for the nature, magnitude and consequences of this event was investigated in August 2002. Field mapping indicated that the avalanche deposited 8–20 × 10⁶ m³ of rock into the lake and onto the surface of the frontal region of Glaciar Pucajirca, which flows into the lake. Repeated bathymetric surveying indicated that ～5 × 10⁶ m³ of this material was deposited directly into the lake. The immediate effect of this event was to create a displacement wave that gained in height as it travelled along the lake basin, overtopping the impounding moraine at the lake's northern end. To achieve overtopping, the maximum wave height must have been greater than 100 m. This, and subsequent seiche waves, caused extensive erosion of both the proximal and distal faces of the impounding terminal moraine. Further deep gullying of the distal face of this moraine resulted from the supply of pressurized water to the face via a relief overflow tunnel constructed in 1978. Two‐dimensional, steady‐state analysis of the stability of the post‐avalanche moraine rampart indicates that its proximal face remains susceptible to major large‐scale rotational failure. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluating lacustrine groundwater discharge to a large glacial lake using regional scale radon-222 surveys and groundwater modelling

Lacustrine groundwater discharge (LGD) can be an important pathway for delivering pollutants to lakes but this pathway is often poorly characterized. Evaluating the potential impact of LGD on lake water quality requires understanding the magnitude and spatial variability of LGD, as well as understanding the age and flow paths of the discharging groundwater (e.g., recharge area, groundwater flow paths, and travel times). This study first compares LGD rates along two ~40 km shoreline lengths of a large glacial lake, Lake Simcoe, Canada, that were independently estimated via a radon-222 (²²²Rn) field survey and via regional scale groundwater-surface water modelling. Backward particle tracking analysis is then used to examine the age and flow paths of the LGD and thereby assess the potential for the LGD to deliver anthropogenic pollutants to the lake. The field and modelling results compare well with respect to the magnitude and spatial variability of LGD. However, the comparison highlights the need for well-defined hydrogeological characterization if regional scale models are to be applied for LGD estimation. The particle tracking analysis indicates large variation in the groundwater flow path lengths and travels times (>1000 years to <50 years) for LGD along the shoreline. This illustrates that the LGD along different shoreline areas has varying potential to deliver anthropogenic pollutants to the lake. The study findings demonstrate the benefits of comparing independent field measured and model-simulated LGD estimates, and moreover suggest that it may be possible, in some cases, to use existing regional scale groundwater-surface water models, purpose-built for other water resource and quality objectives, to conduct preliminary evaluation of LGD contributions to lakes. Preliminary model-based evaluation would enable field efforts aiming to quantify and manage LGD to be better targeted rather than relying solely on regional scale field techniques that are often highly resource intensive.     

A review of low‐cost space‐borne data for flood modelling: topography,flood extent and water level

During the last two decades, remote sensing data have led to tremendous progress in advancing flood inundation modelling. In particular, low‐cost space‐borne data can be invaluable for large‐scale flood studies in data‐scarce areas. Various satellite products yield valuable information such as land surface elevation, flood extent and water level, which could potentially contribute to various flood studies. An increasing number of research studies have been dedicated to exploring those low‐cost data towards building, calibration and evaluation, and remote‐sensed information assimilation into hydraulic models. This paper aims at reviewing these recent scientific efforts on the integration of low‐cost space‐borne remote sensing data with flood modelling. Potentials and limitations of those data in flood modelling are discussed. This paper also introduces the future satellite missions and anticipates their likely impacts in flood modelling. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The topographic data source of digital terrain models as a key element in the accuracy of hydraulic flood modelling

The effects of the topographic data source and resolution on the hydraulic modelling of floods were analysed. Seven digital terrain models (DTMs) were generated from three different altimetric sources: a global positioning system (GPS) survey and bathymetry; high‐resolution laser altimetry data LiDAR (light detection and ranging); and vectorial cartography (1:5000). Hydraulic results were obtained, using the HEC‐RAS one‐dimensional model, for all seven DTMs. The importance of the DTM's accuracy on the hydraulic modelling results was analysed within three different hydraulic contexts: (1) the discharge and water surface elevation results from the hydraulic model; (2) the delineation of the flooded area; and (3) the relative sensitivity of the hydraulic model to changes in the Manning's n roughness coefficient. The contour‐based DTM was the least accurate with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 4·5 m in the determination of the water level and a variation of up to 50 per cent in the estimation of the inundated area of the floodplain. The GPS‐based DTM produced more realistic water surface elevation results and variations of up to 8 per cent in terms of the flooded area. The laser‐based model's RMSE for water level was 0·3 m, with the flooded area varying by less than 1 per cent. The LiDAR data also showed the greatest sensitivity to changes in the Manning's roughness coefficient. An analysis of the effect of mesh resolution indicated an influence on the delineation of the flooded area with variations of up to 7·3 per cent. In addition to determining the accuracy of the hydraulic modelling results produced from each DTM, an analysis of the time–cost ratio of each topographic data source illustrates that airborne laser scanning is a cost‐effective means of developing a DTM of sufficient accuracy, especially over large areas. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Late Holocene flood magnitudes in the Lower Rhine river valley and upper delta resolved by a two-dimensional hydraulic modelling approach

Palaeoflood hydraulic modelling is essential for quantifying ‘millennial flood’ events not covered in the instrumental record. Palaeoflood modelling research has largely focused on one-dimensional analysis for geomorphologically stable fluvial settings because two-dimensional analysis for dynamic alluvial settings is time consuming and requires a detailed representation of the past landscape. In this study, we make the step to spatially continuous palaeoflood modelling for a large and dynamic lowland area. We applied advanced hydraulic model simulations (1D–2D coupled set-up in HEC-RAS with 950 channel sections and 108 × 10³ floodplain grid cells) to quantify the extent and magnitude of past floods in the Lower Rhine river valley and upper delta. As input, we used a high-resolution terrain reconstruction (palaeo-DEM) of the area in early mediaeval times, complemented with hydraulic roughness values. After conducting a series of model runs with increasing discharge magnitudes at the upstream boundary, we compared the simulated flood water levels with an inventory of exceeded and non-exceeded elevations extracted from various geological, archaeological and historical sources. This comparison demonstrated a Lower Rhine millennial flood magnitude of approximately 14,000 m³/s for the Late Holocene period before late mediaeval times. This value exceeds the largest measured discharges in the instrumental record, but not the design discharges currently accounted for in flood risk management.     

OSL dating of past lake levels for a large dammed lake in southern Tibet and determination of possible controls on lake evolution

Fluvio‐lacustrine terraces along Phung Chu (river) on the central southern Tibetan Plateau indicate that a large palaeo‐dammed‐lake formerly existed in this area. Based on landscape survey, optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating and sedimentary analyses, this research shows that the Phung Chu was blocked and a dammed‐lake over 2500 km² in size formed before 30 ka ago. OSL dating analysis suggests the fluvio‐lacustrine sediments were well bleached and yield accurate age estimates for two lake drainage events. The first drainage event took place after 30 ka, resulted in river incision and formed a high terrace at 50 m height from the present river level. The second drainage happened after 3.7 ka, resulted in further river incision and formed the second terrace at 25 m height from the present river level. According to the distribution of the fluvio‐lacustrine sediments, active normal faults (particularly the Kharta Fault) in this region and the high gradient slopes after Phung Chu enters the Yö Ri gorge, seismically‐induced landsliding is regarded as highly likely to have been the cause of river blockage and associated formation of a dammed‐lake, although glacial damming is also a possible cause. The volume of drainages from this dammed‐lake may have led to catastrophic flooding and analogous modern lakes represent significant geo‐hazard risks to down‐river human settlements. As dammed‐lakes are special phases in fluvial evolution, often involving river blockage, breakthrough and drastic catchment change, these processes can reveal how tectonic or climatic events modify landforms. However, such tectonic‐derived landform changes can also impact palaeo‐climate of the region. Thus this study has added new evidence regarding the evolutionary history of a dammed lake including its formation, duration, extent and final drainage, which is crucial for understanding its general landscape process mechanisms and for better assessing geo‐hazard risks. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A model approach for in- and outflow calculation of upper lake constance: —An investigation of a 60 year time span and observations about the flood of 1999

The revised empirical model for in- and outflow calculation of Upper Lake Constance has provided satisfying results supported by measured values. The given model was implemented to simulate total water inputs of the lake during the period from 1941 to 2000 with emphasis on the flood conditions of 1999. Analysis of annual water input development reveals a tendency toward slight increases until the 1960s. Thereafter, a reduction in inputs can be noted. This trend probably continues to hold true to present. Weather conditions of given individual years have caused distinct fluctuations to the water budget.Unusual meteorological conditions led to extreme flooding in early May of 1999. Daily water inputs of up to 200 mio m³ generated the highest water levels ever observed for this time of the year. Continual extraordinarily high water inputs occurring from February until July and then again from September until the end of 1999 resulted in the second largest annual total water input recorded since 1941.     

Anisotropy and depth‐related heterogeneity of hydraulic conductivity in a bog peat. II: modelling the effects on groundwater flow

Anisotropy and heterogeneity of hydraulic conductivity (K) are seldom considered in models of mire hydrology. We investigated the effect of anisotropy and heterogeneity on groundwater flow in bog peat using a steady‐state groundwater model. In five model simulations, four sets of K data were used. The first set comprised measured K values from an anisotropic and heterogeneous bog peat. These data were aggregated to produce the following simplified data sets: an isotropic and heterogeneous distribution of K; an isotropic and homogeneous distribution; and an anisotropic and homogeneous distribution. We demonstrate that, where anisotropy and heterogeneity exist, groundwater flow in bog peat is complex. Fine‐scale variations in K have the potential to influence patterns and rates of groundwater flow. However, for our data at least, it is heterogeneity and not anisotropy that has the greater influence on producing complex patterns of groundwater flow. We also demonstrate that patterns and rates of groundwater flow are simplified and reduced when measured K values are aggregated to create a more uniform distribution of K. For example, when measured K values are aggregated to produce isotropy and homogeneity, the rate of modelled seepage is reduced by 28%. We also show that when measured K values are used, the presence of a drainage ditch can increase seepage through a modelled cross‐section. Our work has implications for the accurate interpretation of hydraulic head data obtained from peat soils, and also the understanding of the effect of drainage ditches on patterns and rates of groundwater flow. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.