Earthquakes in Italy： past, present and future

Italy has a long-standing tradition of earthquake investi-gations. Seismologists can rely on one of the longest and most detailed records of historical seismic#y, 20 years of homogeneous and reliable instrumental data, systematic and widespread active stress data and a comprehensive database of potential seismogenic sources. Here wed escribe these datasets and discuss how they may help usanticipate the large earthquakes of the future.     

Recreation on public lands in New Zealand — past,present and future

Since the turn of the century, recreation has grown as a motivating force in public land administration. Today, the Department of Conservation manages approximately one third of New Zealand's outdoor recreation resources and has the mandate to foster the use of natural and historic resources for recreation, and to allow their use for tourism (Conservation Act 1987:8). This paper traces the emergence of a recreation perspective within public land administration and examines the development of a recreation philosophy and policy within the Department of Conservation. It suggests future directions for outdoor recreation management in New Zealand.     

Groundwater mining of bedrock aquifers in the Denver Basin – past,present, and future

The Denver Basin bedrock aquifer system is an important source of water for municipal and agricultural uses in the Denver and Colorado Springs metropolitan areas. The Denver area is one of the fastest growing areas in the United States with a population of 1.2 million in 1960 that has increased to over 2.4 million by 2000. This rapid population growth has produced a corresponding increase in demand for potable water. Historically, the Denver area has relied on surface water, however, in the past 10 years new housing and recreation developments have begun to rely on groundwater from the bedrock aquifers as the surface water is fully appropriated and in short supply.The Denver Basin bedrock aquifer system consists of Tertiary and Cretaceous age sedimentary rocks known as the Dawson, Denver, Arapahoe and Laramie-Fox Hills Aquifers. The number of bedrock wells has increased from 12,000 in 1985 to 33,700 in 2001 and the withdrawal of groundwater has caused water level declines of 76 m. Water level declines for the past 10 years have ranged from 3 to 12 m per year. The groundwater supplies were once thought to last 100 years but there is concern that the groundwater supplies may be essentially depleted in 10 to 15 years in areas on the west side of the basin.Extensive development of the aquifer system has occurred in the last 25 years especially near the center of the basin in Douglas and El Paso Counties where rapid urban growth continues and surface water is lacking. Groundwater is being mined from the aquifer system because the discharge by wells exceeds the rate of recharge. Concern is mounting that increased groundwater withdrawal will cause water level declines, increased costs to withdraw groundwater, reduced well yield, and reduced groundwater storage. As the long-term sustainability of the groundwater resource is in doubt, water managers believe that the life of the Denver Basin aquifers can be extended with artificial recharge, water reuse, restrictions on lawn watering, well permit restrictions and conservation measures.     

State–church relationships in Germany: past and present

In the wake of the Reformation, the bitterest religious wars were fought on the territories of what is now Germany. It was here, however, that the rule “cuius region, eius religio” was found as well which can be interpreted as a first step towards religious tolerance. Germany has been characterised by a religious dualism between the Roman Catholic and the Protestant (Lutheran and Reformed) Church since then. Both had the status of state churches until the First World War. Since then, they are still by far the dominant religious communities in the country but they regard themselves wrongly to be Volkskirchen (people’s churches). They, as well as a number of smaller religious communities, enjoy the status of a corporation under public law. This status includes the right to collect church tax from members through state channels. The federal German state system is mirrored by a similar federal character of the Protestant Church, which is a union of regional churches. When Germany was reunited in 1990, the Volkskirche principle was reintroduced in East Germany although Christians had become a minority there due to 40 years of strong influence of Communism. Secularisation and pluralisation have changed the religious landscape in Germany especially after 1960. The two big churches have lost large numbers of members, and new religious communities have arrived. In the light of Europe growing together, the Protestant Church in Germany, being the largest in numbers in Europe, has initiated stronger cooperation between the different Protestant churches in the European countries, many of which are organised as national churches. Islam has come to Germany mainly through Turkish labour migrants. The country has only recently changed its self-perception into being a society with a large immigrant minority, which is to stay; therefore it will certainly take some time until Muslims are fully accommodated.

Bearing up well? Understanding the past,present and future of Australia's koalas

The modern Koala Phascolarctos cinereus is the last surviving member of a once diverse family Phascolarctidae (Marsupialia, Phascolarctomorphia). Nine genera and at least 16 species of koala are known. Late Oligocene sediments of central Australia record the oldest fossils and highest species diversity. Five species are known from the early to middle Miocene rainforest assemblages of the Riversleigh World Heritage Area, Queensland. With the onset of dryer conditions after the middle Miocene climatic optimum (~ 16 Ma), rainforest habitats contracted resulting in the apparent extinction of three koala lineages (Litokoala, Nimiokoala, Priscakoala). Phascolarctos first appears in the fossil record during the Pliocene and the modern species around 350 ka. Despite a dramatic decline in taxonomic diversity to a single extant species, the fossil record indicates that at most only three koala species coexisted in any given faunal assemblage throughout their 24 million year history. Within these assemblages, the vast majority of extinct koalas are extremely rare (some known from only a single specimen) which may reflect a general rarity within their palaeohabitats compared with the modern species which is represented by an estimated 400,000 individuals spread over most of eastern mainland Australia. Be that as it may, P. cinereus, although once geographically more widespread, occurring for example in Western Australia in the Pleistocene, underwent significant range contractions and localized population extinctions during the stressful climatic conditions of the late Pleistocene and more recently through human-induced habitat destruction. Combined with threats of disease, reduced genetic diversity and climate change, the survival of this iconic Australian marsupial is arguably a cause for concern.     

Tracers – Past,present and future applications in CO2 geosequestration

Chemical tracers have been used in various C capture and storage (CCS) projects worldwide primarily to provide information regarding subsurface migration of CO₂ and to verify CO₂ containment. Understanding the movement and interactions of CO₂ in the subsurface is a challenging task considering the variety of states in which it exists (i.e. gas, liquid, supercritical, dissolved in water) and the range of possible storage mechanisms (i.e. residual or capillary trapping, dissolved in water, structural trapping or incorporation into minerals). This paper critically reviews several chemical tracer applications and case studies for CCS projects. In many instances, there are parallels (e.g. tracer classes and applications) between tracers in the oil and gas industry and in CCS. It has been shown that chemical tracers can complement geophysical measurements (e.g. seismic) in understanding the formation behaviour of CO₂. Although tracers have been successfully used in many CCS projects, some fundamental information, for example partitioning and adsorption, about the behaviour of tracers is still lacking and this can be an issue when interpreting tracer data (e.g. determining leakage rates). In this paper the deployment and recovery of chemical tracers and their use on various CCS projects are described.     

Mountain-block recharge, present and past, in the eastern Espa?ola Basin, New Mexico, USA

Noble gas recharge temperatures (NGTs) and radiocarbon ages were determined for 43 groundwater samples collected in the eastern Espa?ola Basin, New Mexico (USA), to identify mountain-block recharge in waters <10 thousand years (ka) old and to evaluate possible changes in mountain-block recharge over the past ??35?ka. For Holocene samples from the southeastern area, NGTs are dominantly 2?C4° cooler than the measured water-table temperature near the mountain front. Computed minimum mountain-block recharge fractions are dominantly 0.2?C0.5, consistent with previous large mountain-block recharge estimates. NGTs do not display the distinct low during the last glacial maximum observed in other paleorecharge studies; samples recharged 15?C25?ka ago are on average only 1.3° cooler than Holocene samples. Instead, samples with the coldest NGTs were recharged 25?C35?ka ago. A proposed explanation is that higher precipitation rates during the last glacial maximum resulted in a lower mean recharge elevation for the basin, essentially buffering the effect of the lower mean annual air temperature and producing NGTs similar to the Holocene. In the period preceding the last glacial maximum, precipitation rates more like today??s resulted in Holocene-like mountain-block recharge fractions, producing a mean NGT ??5° cooler than the Holocene, as expected.     

Land–sea carbon and nutrient fluxes and coastal ocean CO2 exchange and acidification: Past,present, and future

Epochs of changing atmospheric CO₂ and seawater CO₂–carbonic acid system chemistry and acidification have occurred during the Phanerozoic at various time scales. On the longer geologic time scale, as sea level rose and fell and continental free board decreased and increased, respectively, the riverine fluxes of Ca, Mg, DIC, and total alkalinity to the coastal ocean varied and helped regulate the C chemistry of seawater, but nevertheless there were major epochs of ocean acidification (OA). On the shorter glacial–interglacial time scale from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to late preindustrial time, riverine fluxes of DIC, total alkalinity, and N and P nutrients increased and along with rising sea level, atmospheric PCO₂ and temperature led, among other changes, to a slightly deceasing pH of coastal and open ocean waters, and to increasing net ecosystem calcification and decreasing net heterotrophy in coastal ocean waters. From late preindustrial time to the present and projected into the 21st century, human activities, such as fossil fuel and land-use emissions of CO₂ to the atmosphere, increasing application of N and P nutrient subsidies and combustion N to the landscape, and sewage discharges of C, N, P have led, and will continue to lead, to significant modifications of coastal ocean waters. The changes include a rapid decline in pH and carbonate saturation state (modern problem of ocean acidification), a shift toward dissolution of carbonate substrates exceeding production, potentially leading to the “demise” of the coral reefs, reversal of the direction of the sea-to-air flux of CO₂ and enhanced biological production and burial of organic C, a small sink of anthropogenic CO₂, accompanied by a continuous trend toward increasing autotrophy in coastal waters.     

Surge dynamics of disaster displaced populations in temporary urban shelters: future challenges and management issues

A tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation prediction scheme has been developed based on the physical quantities of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data as potential predictors and using fuzzy neural network (FNN) model. TC precipitation samples from 172 tropical cyclones (TCs) affecting Guangxi, China, spanning 1980–2015 are used for model development. The FNN model input is constructed from potential predictors by employing both a stepwise regression method (SRM) and a locally linear embedding (LLE) algorithm. The LLE algorithm is capable of finding meaningful low-dimensional architectures hidden in their nonlinear high-dimensional data space and separating the underlying factors. In this scheme, the newly developed model, which is termed the FNN–LLE model, is used for daily TC precipitation prediction from 20:00 (Beijing Time, or BT) of the previous day to 20:00 BT of the current day at 89 stations covering Guangxi, China. Using identical modeling samples and independent samples, predictions of the FNN–LLE model are compared with the widely used SRM and interpolation method using the fine-mesh data of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in terms of the performance of TC rainfall prediction at 89 stations in Guangxi. The root-mean-square error (RMSE), bias, and equitable threat score (ETS) results were employed to assess the predicted outcomes. Results show that the FNN–LLE model is superior to the interpolation method by ECMWF and SRM for TC precipitation prediction with RMSE values of 21.94, 24.07, and 25.22 in FNN–LLE model, interpolation method by ECMWF and SRM, respectively. Moreover, FNN–LLE model having average bias and ETS values close to 1.0 gave better predictions than did the interpolation method by ECMWF and SRM.     

Environmental evolution and hydrodynamic process of Dongping Lake in Shandong Province, China, over the past 150 years

Sporopollen, when recorded in the sedimentary record, is a characterization factor of vegetation over geological time of an area; the grain-size characteristics are direct reflection of the hydrodynamic conditions. Based on analyses of high-time resolution sporopollen and grain size of a 55-cm-long sediment core of Dongping Lake, it is shown that the sedimentary environment and hydrodynamic processes of Dongping Lake have seen significant changes over the past 150 years. From 1855 to 1865, the lake is in a hydrostatic depositional environment, where submerged plants were in great abundance, emergent and floating-leaved aquatic plants were comparatively fewer, and reworked sporopollen fossils were not observed. These indicate a weak and stable hydrodynamic condition during this stage. However, fluctuation of Mz, amounts of clay and silt were present, which may be due to high volumes of sediments around Dongping Lake basin transported into Dongping Lake via the Yellow River during the early lake-forming stages. From 1865 to 1922, the lake is in a backswamp depositional environment, where aquatic plants are nearly nonexistent, appearing occasionally in some layers with relatively low abundance. Fern spores show a twofold increase in occurrence and reworked sporopollen fossils are frequently identified. All of these indicate a strong hydrodynamic condition and frequent environmental change. Grain-size characteristics also support this interpretation. From 1922 to 1961, aquatic plants appeared at the upper layers of this zone at relatively low amounts, and reworked sporopollen fossils were frequently identified. Grain-size characteristics show an obvious change in grain-size distribution, indicating a strong hydrodynamic condition and unstable depositional environment. These relationships were attributed to a backswamp depositional environment. From 1961 to 2007, Dongping Lake is in a hydrostatic depositional environment, where the hydrodynamic condition is weak and stable. Evidence for this is shown by a remarkable increase in submerged plants, a rapid decrease in fern spores, and occasional appearances of reworked sporopollen fossils in the lower part of the zone. However, grain-size characteristics reveal that fluctuation of Mz, amounts of clay, silt and sand are noticeable and frequent, which may be mainly related to impacts of ever-enhancing human activities in recent years.     

Environment change of Sihu Lake in the past 450 years, southern China

In recent years, climate and environment changes since the Little Ice Age have become a focus in modern research. The paper selected the sediment (77 cm) of Sihu Lake, which was located in Guilin, southern China, as the research object and analyzed the karst wetland environmental changes within nearly 450 years. According to the vertical profile of indicators and geochemical elements in sediment core, the regional environmental evolution was divided into four stages. The former two stages were mainly influenced by Little Ice Age (1562–1895). The third stage climate has changed slowly. The fourth stage was mainly affected by human activities and global warming. The factor analysis of geochemical elements indicated that karst wetland regional environmental change was affected by four major factors. In the 53–77 cm stage (1562–1703), F1 (erosion factor), F2 (watershed runoff and diagenesis factor) and F3 (regional background factor) were reduced, indicating that it was in cold and dry stage of Little Ice Age. In the 20–53 cm stage (1703–1895), F1 and F2 increased, indicating that it was in cold and wet stage of Little Ice Age. In the 4–20 cm stage (1895–1987), F1, F2 and F4 (human activity factor) increased slowly, indicating that the climate was affected by global warming and more precipitation. In the 0–4 cm stage (1987–2007), F1 and F2 reduced and F4 increased, indicating the reduced precipitation, rising temperature and more impact of human activities. In addition, it was proposed that the Little Ice Age in Guilin District in southern China started in the 1560s and lasted until the 1895s or so.     

Stratigraphic constraints for explosive activity in the past 100 ka at Etna Volcano, Italy

The pyroclastic deposits of Etna have been correlated over the whole volcanic edifice for the first time, allowing the construction of a continuous record of tephra-producing events, which extends from approximately 100 ka to the Present. In this interval, five main periods of explosive activity have been identified: (a) ~100-ka strombolian to subplinian activity; (b) 80- to 100-ka plinian benmoreitic activity; (c) 16- to 80-ka strombolian to subplinian from basaltic to mugearitic activity; (d) 15.5- to 15-ka plinian benmoreitic activity accompanying the caldera-forming eruptions of the Ellittico Volcano; and (e) the most recent 13-ka basaltic explosive activity of strombolian and subplinian type of the present edifice that also includes the 122-B.C. plinian eruption. This study results in a semi-quantitative and in some cases quantitative definition of the intensity and chronology of the explosive activity at Etna. Moreover, this work gives a new significance to the volcanic hazards of Etna, a volcano generally considered to be the site of gentle effusive eruptions.     

The climatic wind energy potential — present and future: GIS-analysis in the region of Freiburg im Breisgau based on observed data and Regional Climate Models

The current and future wind energy potentials for two square areas (SA) in the region of Freiburg were assessed and analyzed, with the aim of mitigating climate change by increasing the use of wind energy. For future conditions the regional climate models REMO and CLM were taken into account for the IPCC Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B and B1. One aim was to provide information of the applicability of data from regional climate models in terms of wind energy. As a reference dataset, the wind energy potentials of the two measurement stations of the German Weather Service (DWD) (1961–1990) in Freiburg (SA I) and on the Feldberg (SA II) were assessed. Calculations were carried out by the Wind Analysis and Application Program (WAsP). Results were in terms of visual analysis displayed with maps. While the annual electricity performances of the reference data in SA I and SA II reach up to 7.2 GWh and 10.1 GWh respectively, the calculations for REMO and CLM show an underestimation of the real conditions for every period and Emission Scenario. Hence the applicability of the models in consideration seems to be limited. Nevertheless, with regard to different socio-economic developments (SRES A1B and B1), the results provide an overview of the wind energy potentials’ development in the different periods.     

The Palaeocene-early Oligocene Zacatecas conglomerate,Mexico: sedimentology,detrital zircon U–Pb ages,and sandstone provenance

ABSTRACT

This article presents detailed mapping results and the first U–Pb zircon dating and sedimentological characterization of the Zacatecas Conglomerate, which belongs to the Palaeogene red beds of central Mexico, deposited in fault-bounded basins during the Late Cretaceous to Eocene Laramide orogeny. The conglomerate was divided into five depositional facies associations according to their clast-type abundances and interlayered volcanic rocks. The lowermost member has a maximum depositional age based on young zircon grain ages varying from ca. 63 to 81 Ma. It is unconformably overlain by a continuous sequence characterized by a conglomerate rich in granite clasts at the bottom, with an interlayered tuff dated at 37.64 ± 0.36 Ma. Near the top, another tuff was dated at 30.84 ± 0.47 Ma, and a sandstone has a maximum depositional age of ca. 31.5 Ma. Normal grading, massive textures, channels, channel-form sandstone bodies, and upward-finning successions suggest that the Zacatecas Conglomerate is of fluvial origin. Late Jurassic to Early Cretaceous ages from zircons in plutonic rocks and sandstones bracket possible source regions for the Zacatecas Conglomerate. One possible source is Late Jurassic-Early Cretaceous granite derived from the Alisitos-Guerrero arc of western Mexico. Another possible source is the Tuna Manza Diorite, now exposed 250 km southeast of the study area. The lack of pre-Jurassic grains implies that possible sources such as the Nazas arc or the Potosí fan were not cropping out at that time, or at least that these areas were not affected by the fluvial system feeding the Zacatecas Conglomerate. It is possible that during the Palaeocene-early Oligocene the fluvial systems drained from west to east and from southeast to north, according to the above-mentioned constraints.     

Correlation of the largest craters,stratigraphic impact signatures,and extinction events over the past 250 Myr

The six largest known impact craters of the last 250 Myr(≥70 km in diameter),which are capable of causing significant environmental damage,coincide with four times of recognized extinction events at 36(with 2 craters),66,and 145 Myr ago,and possibly with two provisional extinction events at 168 and215 Myr ago.These impact cratering events are accompanied by layers in the geologic record interpreted as impact ejecta.Chance occurrences of impacts and extinctions can be rejected at confidence levels of99.96%(for 4 impact/extinctions)to 99.99%(for 6 impact/extinctions).These results argue that several extinction events over the last 250 Myr may be related to the effects of large-body impacts.     

Abrupt climate changes: from the past to the future – a review

 A review of climatic variability is given with a focus on abrupt changes during the last glacial. Evidence from palaeoclimatic archives suggests that these were most likley due to reorganisations of the atmosphere–ocean system. The mechanisms responsible for these changes are presented. Their implication for future climate changes is discussed in light of recent climate model simulations. Received: 24 June 1998 / Accepted: 27 November 1998     

The Tau Model for Data Redundancy and Information Combination in Earth Sciences: Theory and Application

Many decision-making processes in the Earth sciences require the combination of multiple data originating from diverse sources. These data are often indirect and uncertain, and their combination would call for a probabilistic approach. These data are also partially redundant with each other or with all others taken jointly. This overlap in information arises due to a variety of reasons—because the data arises from the same geology, because they originate from the same location or the same measurement device, etc. The proposed tau model combines partially redundant data, each taking the form of a prior probability for the event being assessed to occur given that single datum. The parameters of that tau model measure the additional contribution brought by any single datum over that of all previously considered data; they are data sequence-dependent and also data value-dependent. Data redundancy depends on the sequence in which the data is considered and also on the data values themselves. However, for a given sequence, averaging the tau model parameters over all possible data values leads to exact analytical expressions and corresponding approximations and inference avenues. Information on multiple-point connectivity of permeability arrives from core data, well-test data and seismic data which are defined over varying supports with complex redundancy between these information sources. In order to compute these tau weights for determining connectivity, one needs a model of data redundancy, here expressed as a vectorial training image (Ti) constructed using a prior conceptual knowledge of geology and the physics of data measurement. From such a vectorial Ti, the tau weights can be computed exactly. Neglecting data redundancy leads to an over-compounding of individual data information and the possible risk of making extreme decisions.     

Streamflow changes and its influencing factors in the mainstream of the Songhua River basin,Northeast China over the past 50 years

The Songhua River plays a key role in the national development of China, owing to its unique natural condition and resources. Recent changes in the streamflow in the Songhua River are important with regard to local sustainable development and management under the background of global warming and aggravating soil erosion. In order to detect changes in the streamflow, two streamflow series from 1955 to 2004 (observed at the Harbin and Jiamusi stations) in the mainstream of Songhua River basin were obtained, and methods of statistical analysis, wavelet transform, and double mass analysis were employed to analyze the data. Reasons for the changes to the streamflow are discussed with respect to natural and man-made drivers. The results show the following: (1) From 1955 to 2004, the streamflow series present obvious declining trends. (2) The streamflow series followed the pattern of a wet–dry–wet–dry cycle pattern over the past 50 years. In the mainstream of Songhua River, wet years mainly occurred during the periods of 1955–1966 and 1984–1993, while dry years mainly occurred in the 1970s and after 2000. (3) Within the 50-year scale, the streamflow series appeared in the main periods of circa 33-, 13- and 4-year, in which the 33-year periodicity is the strongest. (4) Precipitation and temperature directly influenced the streamflow in the mainstream of the basin. The discharge was positively correlated with the precipitation and negatively correlated with the temperature. In addition, human activity was another important driving factor for streamflow change. (5) In the mainstream of Songhua River basin, the influences on streamflow can be divided into three periods: 1955–1976, 1977–1997, and 1998–2004. In the first period climate change played a dominant role, and during the latter two periods human influences were enhanced significantly.