Robust Resampling Confidence Intervals for Empirical Variograms

The variogram function is an important measure of the spatial dependencies of a geostatistical or other spatial dataset. It plays a central role in kriging, designing spatial studies, and in understanding the spatial properties of geological and environmental phenomena. It is therefore important to understand the variability attached to estimates of the variogram. Existing methods for constructing confidence intervals around the empirical variogram either rely on strong assumptions, such as normality or known variogram function, or are based on resampling blocks and subject to edge effect biases. This paper proposes two new procedures for addressing these concerns: a quasi-block-bootstrap and a quasi-block-jackknife. The new methods are based on transforming the data to decorrelate it based on a fitted variogram model, resampling blocks from the decorrelated data, and then recorrelating. The coverage properties of the new confidence intervals are compared by simulation to a number of existing resampling-based intervals. The proposed quasi-block-jackknife confidence interval is found to have the best properties of all of the methods considered across a range of scenarios, including normally and lognormally distributed data and misspecification of the variogram function used to decorrelate the data.     

USE OF SECOND-ORDER ELECTROSEISMIC EFFECTS IN ELECTRIC PROSPECTING

The second-order electroseismic effects described may be divided into three classes: electroseismic, electromagnetic, and piezoelectric. Application of these effects to prospecting for certain types of geological features such as quartz veins and pegmatites indicates new methods of subsurface exploration. A brief review of methods and procedures is discussed with results of testing over a pegmatite which is not exposed at the surface.—C. E. Sears, Jr.     

Controlling the safety of geotechnical structures: a proposed approach

Summary This paper considers the safety of geotechnical structures using various design philosophies which include the global safety method and a number of limit state design methods. The methods are considered individually and their treatment of uncertainties of design briefly discussed in terms of parameter and system uncertainty. Each method is not designed to produce a definitive measure of safety, but should be viewed as an aid in the process of controlling or managing safety. Crucial to all design methods is the idea of a design parameter. However, in certain instances it is often not clear whether a design parameter should be an upper or lower bound on its possible value. A proposed limit state design method for overcoming this problem is outlined, based on putting bounds on parameters. An example of a reinforced concrete cantilever retaining wall is used to demonstrate its advantages over current methods. The proposed method offers a more rational approach to the design of retaining structures.     

A statistical method for estimating rates of soil development and ages of geologic deposits: A design for soil-chronosequence studies

A statistical method for estimating rates of soil development in a given region based on calibration from a series of dated soils is used to estimate ages of soils in the same region that are not dated directly. The method is designed specifically to account for sampling procedures and uncertainties that are inherent in soil studies. Soil variation and measurement error, uncertainties in calibration dates and their relation to the age of the soil, and the limited number of dated soils are all considered. Maximum likelihood (ML) is employed to estimate a parametric linear calibration curve, relating soil development to time or age on suitably transformed scales. Soil variation on a geomorphic surface of a certain age is characterized by replicate sampling of soils on each surface; such variation is assumed to have a Gaussian distribution. The age of a geomorphic surface is described by older and younger bounds. This technique allows age uncertainty to be characterized by either a Gaussian distribution or by a triangular distribution using minimum, best-estimate, and maximum ages. The calibration curve is taken to be linear after suitable (in certain cases logarithmic) transformations, if required, of the soil parameter and age variables. Soil variability, measurement error, and departures from linearity are described in a combined fashion using Gaussian distributions with variances particular to each sampled geomorphic surface and the number of sample replicates. Uncertainty in age of a geomorphic surface used for calibration is described using three parameters by one of two methods. In the first method, upper and lower ages are specified together with a coverage probability; this specification is converted to a Gaussian distribution with the appropriate mean and variance. In the second method, absolute older and younger ages are specified together with a most probable age; this specification is converted to an asymmetric triangular distribution with mode at the most probable age. The statistical variability of the ML-estimated calibration curve is assessed by a Monte Carlo method in which simulated data sets repeatedly are drawn from the distributional specification; calibration parameters are reestimated for each such simulation in order to assess their statistical variability. Several examples are used for illustration. The age of undated soils in a related setting may be estimated from the soil data using the fitted calibration curve. A second simulation to assess age estimate variability is described and applied to the examples.     

Local adaptive parameterization for the history matching of 3D seismic data

Matching seismic data in assisted history matching processes can be a challenging task. One main idea is to bring flexibility in the choice of the parameters to be perturbed, focusing on the information provided by seismic data. Local parameterization techniques such as pilot-point or gradual deformation methods can be introduced, considering their high adaptability. However, the choice of the spatial supports associated to the perturbed parameters is crucial to successfully reduce the seismic mismatch. The information related to seismic data is sometimes considered to initialize such local methods. Recent attempts to define the regions adaptively have been proposed, focusing on the mismatch between simulated and reference seismic data. However, the regions are defined manually for each optimization process. Therefore, we propose to drive the definition of the parameter support by performing an automatic definition of the regions to be perturbed from the residual maps related to the 3D seismic data. Two methods are developed in this paper. The first one consists in clustering the residual map with classification algorithms. The second method proposes to drive the generation of pilot point locations in an adaptive way. Residual maps, after proper normalization, are considered as probability density functions of the pilot point locations. Both procedures lead to a complete adaptive and highly flexible perturbation technique for 3D seismic matching. A synthetic study based on the PUNQ test case is introduced to illustrate the potential of these adaptive strategies.     

高速公路采空区治理的综合检测优化评价

目前国内外有许多采空区治理效果检测方法,但尚没有成熟可靠的技术方法,在公路采空区治理监测检测中无现行规范、规程和标准可遵循。根据国内典型公路下伏采空区治理设计与监测检测试验研究,系统确立采空区治理效果检测体系与质量指标,明确采空区治理检测的原则、方法与综合检测优化程序;并研究讨论采空区治理效果检测数值模拟定量计算,为进一步研究采空区治理效果监测检测技术明确了方向。     

Using exploration history to estimate undiscovered resources

Inference about deposits left to be discovered in a partially explored oil field that require only assumptions about the randomness in the exploration procedure are considered. Unbiased estimators, estimators based on partial likelihood methods and confidence procedures are proposed.     

Simulation of geomembrane response to settlement in landfills by using the material point method

Because of the multiple layers of dissimilar materials and large deformations involved in the subsidence of a landfill system, large-scale computer simulation of the geomechanical response to subsidence with the use of conventional numerical methods are problematic. The Material Point (MPM), which was recently developed for dynamic problems such as penetration and perforation, is a newly emerging numerical method. The MPM is modified in this paper to simulate the geomechanical response of a landfill cover system that includes a geomembrane under quasi-static loading conditions. Sample problems, for which an analytical solution is available with certain assumptions, are considered to demonstrate the proposed solution procedure. Future work is discussed based on current research results. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Some properties of principal component scores

Commonly used methods for calculating component scores are reviewed. Means, variances, and the covariance structures of the resulting sets of scores are examined both by calculations based on a large set of electron microprobe analyses of melilite (supplied by D. Velde)and by a survey of recent geological applications of principal component analysis. Most of the procedures used to project raw data into the new vector space yield uncorrelated scores. In exceptions so far encountered, correlations between scores seem to have been occasioned by the use of unstandardized variables with components calculated from a correlation matrix. In a number of cases substantive interpretations of such correlations have been proposed. A different set of correlations results for the same data if scores are computed from standardized variables and components based on the covariance matrix. If unscaled components are rotated by the varimax procedure, the result is a return to the original space. In the work reported here, nevertheless, scores calculated from varimax-rotated scaled vectors are uncorrelated.     

A practical co-simulation approach for multiscale analysis of geotechnical systems

The particulate nature of granular soils can be accurately simulated at a microscale level. However, due to the huge spatial extent of geotechnical systems, a model fully constructed at such a scale is almost impossible with current computing technologies. Hence, continuum-based approaches are considered as the practical scale for modeling the majority of problems. Combining both scales enables benefiting from the advantages of both techniques while trying to overcome their drawbacks. Although a significant number of publications have addressed coupling both scales, only a few provide information regarding implementing the proposed procedures. In this study, an efficient co-simulation framework for conducting multiscale analysis is introduced. The framework is based on integrating existing continuum and micromechanical modeling software packages and therefore benefitting from already existing codes. A computational simulation of a rigid pile in contact with granular soil demonstrating the capabilities of such technique is presented. The near-field zone surrounding the pile is modeled using DEM whereas FEM is utilized to model far-field zones that are not affected by the presence of the pile. Results of conducted simulations resemble those obtained from experimental results. The proposed approach appears to be a very effective and promising tool to model boundary value problems of geotechnical systems.     

岩体抗剪强度参数的线性优化方法

针对岩体结构面力学参数的重要性,以大量工程实例为依据,以统计误差分析相关理论为基础,研究最小二乘法与M-估计法在分析结构面抗剪强度参数时的适用性。研究结果表明,在难以判断粗差的数量和比例时,很难对两种线性回归方法的优劣进行规律性的比较。考虑到数据是具有工程特性的,为更准确地处理实验数据,在以上两种方法的基础上提出了一种新的实验数据处理方法,并应用于计算李家河水库的抗剪强度参数。     

A Comparative Study of Different Approaches for Factor of Safety Calculations by Shear Strength Reduction Technique for Non-linear Hoek–Brown Failure Criterion

The shear strength reduction technique is becoming more and more popular to determine the factor-of-safety for geotechnical constructions, especially for slopes. At present, two in principal different procedures are used to apply the numerical shear strength reduction technique for materials characterised by non-linear failure envelopes, like the Hoek–Brown criterion. One procedure is based on the determination on local stress and strength values, whereas the other is based on a global linearization of the non-linear failure envelope. This article shortly describes and discusses these two different procedures and compares results for a broad spectrum of parameter constellations based on slope stability calculations. The local approach is physically more correct. The global approach can be considered as a first approximation. A comparison of both methods reveal that the global approach in comparison to the local approach, can leads to a deviation of up to 15?% in both directions. If one considers the local approach as the ‘correct’ one, depending on the parameters the results of the global approach can lie on the safe or unsafe site. The practical conclusion is that evaluation of slope stability using the global approach can result in uneconomic slope design or overestimation of safety margin. The use of the local approach instead of the global should be preferred. In case of small safety margins (e.g. 20?% or less) the use of the local approach is strictly recommended.     

On maximum likelihood estimation of parameters in incorrectly specified models of covariance for spatial data

The analysis of, and from, models of spatial data usually proceeds under the assumption, often implicit, that the correct model has been specified. However, any model identification procedures based on sample data are subject to error, and consequences of such errors then permeate subsequent analysis. Thus, an attempt to quantify some of these consequences is of interest. A standard framework for analysis is extended here, by introduction of information theory, to permit the study of effects of model misspecification on maximum likelihood estimators of parameters of model covariance. Asymptotically valid theoretical results are presented, and the relevance of these results to samples of finite sizes met in practice is assessed in a series of simulation experiments. The effect of model misspecification, and use of estimators of parameters of misspecified covariance models, on the practical problem of prediction at a previously unsampled location is considered briefly, and further areas for possible investigation are outlined.     

Determination of the natural background content of metals in ground waters of the Czech Republic

Knowledge of the natural background content of metals is important, but can be difficult to establish because the concentrations of substances dissolved in ground waters vary considerably with time and space. The main objective of the paper is to assess the natural background of five selected elements: As, Al, Cd, Pb and Hg. Each of these elements, with the exception of Al, is included in the Minimum list of pollutants and their indicators for which the EU Member States should establish threshold values (Daughter Groundwater Directive). The data of the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute which contains analyses obtained by regular monitoring of the quality of ground waters at intervals of 6 months has been used as the source information. This system incorporates ca. 450 monitoring sites which provide information about water in all the types of rocks penetrated by individual boreholes. Because of the low concentrations of certain elements (Hg, Pb and Cd in particular) a significant number of analytical results lie below the quantification limit of the analytical methods used. Therefore, conventional statistical methods for processing data were not applicable and alternative procedures were used. The Kaplan–Meier procedure was used within the NADA module for statistical analysis of data sets containing values below the quantification limit. The concentrations of monitored elements that can be considered natural background are suggested to be values of the third quartile, i.e. values that are less than or equal to 75% of analytical results in the assessed dataset. The remaining 25% of analytical results that exceed the proposed limit can be considered to be anomalies which may be natural or anthropogenic. Based on the statistical analysis of data specific values for the natural background content of elements in ground waters within particular types of lithology have been proposed. These can be considered the natural background values that apply within the whole of the territory of the Czech Republic.     

基于天然红层材料的软岩成型模拟研究

岩石模拟是岩土工程模型试验、地质岩芯模拟试验等研究的核心。但目前基于人工材料的模拟制备受限于现有相似理论与技术手段,成岩结果与实际岩性差异较大,特别是软岩的成型模拟问题尤为突出。以天然红层材料为原料,改进传统的成岩模拟系统,考虑成岩过程中温度、孔隙流体压力及上覆压力的分阶段影响,模拟红层软岩从松散岩土颗粒到岩石的形成过程,得到工程标准尺寸软岩岩芯。通过与天然红层软岩进行成岩过程、物理性质、化学性质及力学性质的对比研究表明,以天然红层为原料的软岩岩芯与天然红层软岩性质相似。该研究突破了人工材料配制、3D打印等方法一般只能满足某一方面性质的局限,为大量不同功能需求的软岩岩芯研究提供了新的制作思路与方法。     

Fitting the Linear Model of Coregionalization by Generalized Least Squares

In geostatistical studies, the fitting of the linear model of coregionalization (LMC) to direct and cross experimental semivariograms is usually performed with a weighted least-squares (WLS) procedure based on the number of pairs of observations at each lag. So far, no study has investigated the efficiency of other least-squares procedures, such as ordinary least squares (OLS), generalized least squares (GLS), and WLS with other weighing functions, in the context of the LMC. In this article, we compare the statistical properties of the sill estimators obtained with eight least-squares procedures for fitting the LMC: OLS, four WLS, and three GLS. The WLS procedures are based on approximations of the variance of semivariogram estimates at each distance lag. The GLS procedures use a variance–covariance matrix of semivariogram estimates that is (i) estimated using the fourth-order moments with sill estimates (GLS₁), (ii) calculated using the fourth-order moments with the theoretical sills (GLS₂), and (iii) based on an approximation using the correlation between semivariogram estimates in the case of spatial independence of the observations (GLS₃). The current algorithm for fitting the LMC by WLS while ensuring the positive semidefiniteness of sill matrix estimates is modified to include any least-squares procedure. A Monte Carlo study is performed for 16 scenarios corresponding to different combinations of the number of variables, number of spatial structures, values of ranges, and scale dependence of the correlations among variables. Simulation results show that the mean square error is accounted for mostly by the variance of the sill estimators instead of their squared bias. Overall, the estimated GLS₁ and theoretical GLS₂ are the most efficient, followed by the WLS procedure that is based on the number of pairs of observations and the average distance at each lag. On that basis, GLS₁ can be recommended for future studies using the LMC.     

国内真空预压法加固软土地基的现状与趋势

真空预压法作为一种近年来兴起的软基处理手段,已成为排水固结法中的重要组成,其适用范围日益扩大,真空预压法的机理、计算方法、效果检测、施工工艺在大量的实验和实测资料对比的基础上不断成熟,真空预压法在微观机理以及三维分析方法等有着广阔的发展空间,同时应考虑其环境效应问题。     

Remediation of floating,open water oil spills: Comparative efficacy of commercially available polypropylene sorbent booms

Several complex methods of remediation are applied to open water oil spills. Sorbing the liquid hydrocarbons with polypropylene booms is an effective and less complex means of treating such events. There are, however, a variety of commercially available booms which display different performances in sorbing different viscosity hydrocarbons. There is no acceptable A.S.T.M. protocol to evaluate these booms for performance efficiency in various weather and hydrocarbon viscosity scenarios. The current paper proposes such a protocol and evaluates the most commonly used sorbent products with the new test procedures. Nine specific performance criteria, based on actual field applications, are demonstrated.     

关于滇东北MVT型铅锌矿成矿时代的讨论

滇东北地区是我国重要的铅锌矿产品生产基地,区内发育多个大型密西西比河谷型(Mississippi valley-type,MVT型)铅锌矿床,个别矿床(会泽)达到超大型.前人对该区域的铅锌矿床开展了大量的年代学研究工作,获得了一大批成矿年龄,本文在通过对各类同位素测年方法在该类型矿床中使用存在的弊端进行分析后,基于滇东...     

Computational procedures for non-linear three-dimensional analysis with some advanced constitutive laws

Computational procedures for implementing some constitutive models are described and introduced in three-, and two-dimensional finite element procedures; here variable moduli, Drucker–Prager, critical state and cap models are considered. Consistent numerical schemes are presented with applications to a number of example problems. These procedures can provide successful results with advanced constitutive laws for three-dimensional analysis of a wide range of non-linear problems.