首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 0 毫秒
1.
To clarify the geological causes of rockslides induced by rainstorms in accretionary complexes, the geology and geomorphology of two large rockslides (volumes > 106 m3) induced by the heavy rainfall of Typhoon Talas in the Shimanto Belt, Kii Mountains, Japan in 2011 are investigated. Our analysis reveals that thrusts with brittle crush zones controlled the occurrence of the rockslides. The properties and distribution of thrusts were poorly constrained before this study. Flooding during the rainstorm removed surface materials along rivers, allowing thorough geological mapping to be performed. Gravitationally deformed slopes were studied using GIS analysis of 1 m digital elevation models (DEMs) and fieldwork, and X‐ray diffraction (XRD) analysis, permeability, and direct shear tests were used to characterize the mineralogy and geotechnical properties of fault gouge. The Kawarabi thrust has a brittle crush zone up to 6 m thick and acts as the sliding surface for both landslides. The thrust dips 34° downslope and is cut by high‐angle faults and joints along one or both sides of each landslide body. Prior to failure, the upper part of the slope contained small scarps, suggesting that the slopes were already gravitationally deformed. The slope instability can be attributed to long‐term river erosion, which has undercut the slope and exposed the thrust at the base of the slope. The groundwater level, monitored in boreholes, suggests that the Kawarabi thrust is a barrier to groundwater flow. The weak and impermeable nature of the thrust played an essential role in the generation of gravitational slope deformation and catastrophic failure during periods of increased rainfall. Thrusts are a common feature of accretionary complexes, including in the Shimanto Belt, and the mechanism of slope failure stated above can be typical of rockslides in accretionary complexes and provide new insights into landslide disaster mitigation.  相似文献   

2.
Among the numerous environmental factors affecting plant communities in alpine ecosystems, the influence of geomorphic processes and landforms has been minimally investigated. Subjected to persistent climate warming, it is vital to understand how these factors affect vegetation properties. Here, we studied 72 vegetation plots across three sites located in the Western Swiss Alps, characterized by high geomorphological variability and plant diversity. For each plot, vascular plant species were inventoried and ground surface temperature, soil moisture, topographic variables, earth surface processes (ESPs) and landform morphodynamics were assessed. The relationships between plant communities and environmental variables were analysed using non-metric multi-dimensional scaling (NMDS) and multivariate regression techniques (generalized linear model, GLM, and generalized additive model, GAM). Landform morphodynamics, growing degree days (sum of degree days above 5°C) and mean ground surface temperature were the most important explanatory variables of plant community composition. Furthermore, the regression models for species cover and species richness were significantly improved by adding a morphodynamics variable. This study provides complementary support that landform morphodynamics is a key factor, combined with growing degree days, to explain alpine plant distribution and community composition. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
The subsurface temperature field of a rock slope is a key variable influencing both bedrock fracturing and slope stability. However, significant unknowns remain relating to the effect of air and water fracture flow, which can rapidly transmit temperature changes to appreciable depths. In this work, we analyze a unique set of temperature measurements from an alpine rock slope at ~2400 m a.s.l. in southern Switzerland. The monitored area encompasses part of an active slope instability above the village of Randa (VS) and is traversed by a network of open cracks, some of which have been traced to >80 m depth. We first describe distributed temperature measurements and borehole profiles, highlighting deep steady temperatures and different transient effects, and then use these data to approximate the conductive temperature field at the site. In a second step, we analyze the impact of air and water circulation in deep open fractures on the subsurface thermal field. On multiple visits to the study site in winter, we consistently noted the presence of warm air vents in the snowpack following the trace of deep tension cracks. Measurements showed that venting air changed temperature gradually from ~3 to 2 °C between December and May, which is similar to the rock temperature at around 50 m depth. Comparison with ambient air temperature suggests that winter conditions favor buoyancy‐driven convective air flow in these fractures, which acts to cool the deep subsurface as the rock gives up heat to incoming air. The potential impact of this process on the local thermal field is revealed by a disturbed temperature profile in one borehole and transient signals observed at depths well below the thermal active layer. Seasonal water infiltration during snowmelt appears to have little impact on the temperature field in the monitored area. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

4.
The Alps are often referred to as the ‘water tower of Europe’. In Switzerland, many branches of the economy, especially the hydropower industry, are closely linked to and dependent on the availability of water. Assessing the impact of climate change on streamflow runoff is, thus, of great interest. Major efforts have already been made in this respect, but the analyses often focus on individual catchments and are difficult to intercompare. In this article, we analysed nine high‐alpine catchments spread over the Swiss Alps, selected for their relevance to a wide range of morphological characteristics. Runoff projections were carried out until the end of the current century by applying the Glacier Evolution Runoff Model (GERM) and climate scenarios generated in the framework of the ENSEMBLES project. We focused on assessing the uncertainty induced by the unknown climate evolution and provided general, statistically based statements, which should be useful as a ‘rule of thumb’ for analyses addressing questions related to water management. Catchments with a high degree of glacierization will undergo the largest changes. General statements about absolute variations in discharge are unreliable, but an overall pattern, with an initial phase of increased annual discharge, followed by a phase with decreasing discharge, is recognizable for all catchments with a significant degree of glacierization. In these catchments, a transition from glacial and glacio‐nival regime types to nival will occur. The timing of maximal annual runoff is projected to occur before 2050 in all basins. The time of year with maximal daily discharges is expected to occur earlier at a rate of 4·4 ± 1·7 days per decade. Compared to its present level, the contribution of snow‐ and icemelt to annual discharge is projected to drop by 15 to 25% until the year 2100. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
We have measured the concentration of in situ produced cosmogenic 10Be and 26Al from bare bedrock surfaces on summit flats in four western U.S. mountain ranges. The maximum mean bare-bedrock erosion rate from these alpine environments is 7.6 ± 3.9 m My−1. Individual measurements vary between 2 and 19 m My−1. These erosion rates are similar to previous cosmogenic radionuclide (CRN) erosion rates measured in other environments, except for those from extremely arid regions. This indicates that bare bedrock is not weathered into transportable material more rapidly in alpine environments than in other environments, even though frost weathering should be intense in these areas. Our CRN-deduced point measurements of bedrock erosion are slower than typical basin-averaged denudation rates ( 50 m My−1). If our measured CRN erosion rates are accurate indicators of the rate at which summit flats are lowered by erosion, then relief in the mountain ranges examined here is probably increasing.

We develop a model of outcrop erosion to investigate the magnitude of errors associated with applying the steady-state erosion model to episodically eroding outcrops. Our simulations show that interpreting measurements with the steady-state erosion model can yield erosion rates which are either greater or less than the actual long-term mean erosion rate. While errors resulting from episodic erosion are potentially greater than both measurement and production rate errors for single samples, the mean value of many steady-state erosion rate measurements provides a much better estimate of the long-term erosion rate.  相似文献   


6.
Impacts of permafrost changes on alpine ecosystem in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau   总被引:15,自引:0,他引:15  
Alpine cold ecosystem with permafrost environment is quite sensitive to climatic changes and the changes in permafrost can significantly affect the alpine ecosystem. The vegetation coverage, grassland biomass and soil nutrient and texture are selected to indicate the regime of alpine cold ecosystems in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The interactions between alpine ecosystem and permafrost were investigated with the depth of active layer, permafrost thickness and mean annual ground temperature (MAGTs). Based on the statistics model of GPTR for MAGTs and annual air temperatures, an analysis method was developed to analyze the impacts of permafrost changes on the alpine ecosystems. Under the climate change and human engineering activities, the permafrost change and its impacts on alpine ecosystems in the permafrost region between the Kunlun Mountains and the Tanggula Range of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are studied in this paper. The results showed that the per- mafrost changes have a different influence on different alpine ecosystems. With the increase in the thickness of active layer, the vegetation cover and biomass of the alpine cold meadow exhibit a significant conic reduction, the soil organic matter content of the alpine cold meadow ecosystem shows an exponential decrease, and the surface soil materials become coarse and gravelly. The alpine cold steppe ecosystem, however, seems to have a relatively weak relation to the permafrost environment. Those relationships resulted in the fact that the distribution area of alpine cold meadow decreased by 7.98% and alpine cold swamp decreased by 28.11% under the permafrost environment degradation during recent 15 years. In the future 50 years the alpine cold meadow ecosystems in different geomorphologic units may have different responses to the changes of the permafrost under different climate warming conditions, among them the alpine cold meadow and swamp ecosystem located in the low mountain and plateau area will have a relatively serious degradation. Furthermore, from the angles of grassland coverage and biological production the variation characteristics of high-cold eco- systems in different representative regions and different geomorphologic units under different climatic conditions were quantitatively assessed. In the future, adopting effective measures to protect permafrost is of vital importance to maintaining the stability of permafrost engineering and alpine cold eco- systems in the plateau.  相似文献   

7.
The respiratory potential [i.e. electron transport system activity (ETSA)] of soils and sediments from five floodplain habitats (channel, gravel, islands, riparian forest and grassland) of the Urbach River, Switzerland, and actual respiration rate (R) of the same samples exposed to experimental inundation were measured. Measurements were carried out at three incubation temperatures (4°C, 12°C and 20°C), and ETSA/R ratios (i.e. exploitation of the overall metabolic capacity) were investigated to better understand the effects of temperature and inundation on floodplain functional heterogeneity. Furthermore, ETSA/R ratios obtained during experimental inundation were compared with ETSA/R ratios from field measurements to investigate the exploitation in total metabolic potential at different conditions. Lowest ETSA and R were measured in samples from channel and gravel habitats, followed by those from islands. Substantially higher values were measured in soils from riparian forest and grassland. Both ETSA and R increased with increasing temperature in samples from all habitats, while the ETSA/R ratio decreased because of a rapid response in microbial community respiration to higher temperatures. The metabolic capacity exploitation (i.e. ETSA/R) during experimental inundation was lowest in predominantly terrestrial samples (riparian forest and grassland), indicating the weakest response to wetted conditions. Comparison of experimentally inundated and field conditions revealed that in rarely flooded soils, the metabolic capacity was less exploited during inundation than during non‐flooded conditions. The results suggest high sensitivity in floodplain respiration to changes in temperature and hydrological regime. ETSA/R ratios are considered good indicators of changes in metabolic activity of floodplain soils and sediments, and thus useful to estimate the impact of changes in hydrological regime or to evaluate success of floodplain restoration actions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

8.
基于滑面正应力修正的边坡安全系数显示解法,研究滑面初始正应力分布对边坡稳定性的影响。假设滑面的初始正应力分布,用含有待定参数的修正函数对其进行修正,使滑体满足所有方向的力和力矩平衡条件,推导出满足所有平衡条件的安全系数方程,得到边坡安全系数值,对边坡稳定性进行评判分析。结果表明,对于三维对称边坡,不同初始滑面正应力分布对边坡稳定性影响较小,安全系数最大差别控制在5%以内;对于一般三维形状边坡,不同初始正应力分布对边坡稳定性影响较大,三维安全系数的差别在6.2%,与其他方法的差别最大达到28.7%,需要进一步验证滑面正应力分布的合理性才能应用于工程实践。  相似文献   

9.
Crack widths and rock temperatures were monitored on an andestic bedrock cliff in the summit area of the Daisetsu Mountains, Hokkaido, northern Japan. Sequential data recorded the gradual widening of a crack to the point of critical crack extension, which resulted in catastrophic rock breakage. The data indicate that a combination of liquid water in?ltration into crack tip and subsequent freezing is the most signi?cant factor contributing to critical crack extension. The recorded sub‐critical crack movements involved a number of minor crack extensions and contractions, the timing of which correlates well with the magnitude of the reconstructed thermal stresses at the crack tip derived from thermal deformation of the plate‐shaped rock fragment. Larger crack extensions occurred when stress at the crack tip exceeded a threshold value, possibly re?ecting the control of rock fracture mechanics by which cracks are thought to propagate when the stress intensity factor at the crack tip exceeds the threshold values for stress corrosion cracking and the fracture toughness of the material. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
黑方台台塬斜坡变形破坏的结构面效应研究   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2       下载免费PDF全文
结构面对于黑方台台塬斜坡变形破坏的影响研究成果较多,但以单方面研究为主,较少进行系统研究,因此通过对黑方台台塬结构面类型及其组合特征以及斜坡变形破坏类型和特征的分析可知:研究区结构面类型主要包括节理裂隙、层面、接触面、断层和临空面,结构面组合类型分2大类8小类,各类型具有自身的结构特征和分布特征;结构面及其组合对黑方台台塬斜坡变形破坏类型选择和空间分布选择控制效应明显,特别是对滑坡类型选择和空间分布的影响。  相似文献   

11.
Soil water is an important limiting factor for restoring alpine meadows on the northern Tibetan Plateau. Field studies of soil‐water content (SWC), however, are rare due to the harsh environment, especially in a mesoscale alpine‐meadow ecosystem. The objective of this study was to assess the spatial variability of SWC and the temporal variation of the spatial variability in a typical alpine meadow using a geostatistical approach. SWC was measured using a neutron probe to a depth of 50 cm at 113 locations on 22 sampling occasions in a 33.5‐hm2 alpine meadow during the 2015 and 2016 growing seasons. Mean SWC in the study plot for the two growing seasons was 18.7, 14.0, 13.9, 14.3, and 14.8% for depths of 10, 20, 30, 40, and 50 cm, respectively, and SWC was significantly larger at 10 cm than at other depths. SWC was negatively correlated with its spatial variability, and the spatial variability was higher when SWC was lower. Thirty‐three sampling locations in this study plot met the requirement of accuracy of the central limit theorem. A Gaussian model was the best fit for SWC semivariance at depths of 10, 20, and 30 cm, and the spatial structural ratio was between 0.997 and 1, indicating a strong spatial dependence of SWC. The sill and range fluctuated temporally, and the nugget and spatial structural ratio did not generally vary with time. The sill was significantly positively correlated with SWC and was initially stable and then tend to increase with SWC. The nugget, range, and spatial structure ratio, however, were not correlated with SWC. These results contribute to our understanding of SWC spatial distribution and variation in alpine meadows and provide basic empirical SWC data for mesoscale model simulations, optimizing sampling strategies and managing meadows on the Tibetan Plateau.  相似文献   

12.
A reaction set of possible mineral weathering reactions is proposed to explain observed cation and silica export for the Emerald Lake watershed, a small Sierra Nevada, California catchment. The reaction set was calculated through a stoichiometric mole‐balance method, using a multiyear record of stream flow and snowpack chemical analyses and site‐specific mineral compositions. Reaction‐set calculations were intended to explore how the processes controlling stream cation and silica export depend on differing bedrock mineralogy across the catchment as snowmelt and runoff patterns change over the year. Different regions within the watershed can be differentiated by lake inflow subdrainages, each exhibiting different stream‐flow chemistry and calculated weathering stoichiometry, indicating that different silica and cation generation processes are dominant in wet steep portions of the catchment. Short‐term differences in stream concentrations were assumed to reflect ion exchange equilibria and rapid biological processes, whereas long‐term persistent stream concentration differences in different areas of the catchment were assumed to reflect spatial variability in mineral weathering stoichiometry. Mineralogical analyses of rock samples from the watershed provided site‐specific chemical compositions of major mineral species for reaction calculations. Reaction sets were evaluated by linear regression of calculated versus observed differences between snowmelt and stream‐flow chemistry and by a combined measure. Initially, single weathering reactions were balanced and evaluated to determine the reactions that best explained observed stream chemical export. Next, reactions were combined, using mineral compositions from different rock types to estimate the dependence of ion fluxes on lithology. The seasonal variability of major solute calculated fluxes is low, approximately one order of magnitude, relative to the observed three orders of magnitude variability in basin discharge. Reaction sets using basin‐averaged lithology and Aplite lithologies gave superior explanations of stream chemical composition. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
The Kanin massif is an important trans‐boundary aquifer, which stretches between Slovenia and Italy. The groundwater is only partially exploited, mainly for water supply, but the aquifer exhibits great potential for future exploitation. Since no consistent regional overview of the hydrogeological functioning of the Kanin massif was available, the decision was made to perform a study of this area, using a pragmatic approach based on 3D geological and hydrogeological modelling. The so‐called KARSYS approach was applied, with the aim of characterizing the groundwater reserves within this karst massif and of locating the main drainage axes that carry groundwater from the recharge areas to the respective springs. Delineation of the catchment areas of the corresponding springs was carried out, and some new explanations were obtained, especially with regard to the Mo?nica spring, which is located in Slovenia and forms a potential source of drinking water. It was found that this spring's catchment area extends as far as the Italian ski resort of Sella Nevea. The conceptual model also provides a possible explanation about the underground drainage towards the Boka spring and waterfall, which has been a challenge for decades. This new explanation is based on the existence of a perched groundwater body that feeds the Boka spring via a system of conduits. Despite some limitations, the results, which consist of a visualization of the underground drainage and groundwater storage within the Kanin massif, can be used as a basis for planning the sustainable management of karst waters in the studied area. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
孔令阳  羊向东  王倩 《湖泊科学》2017,29(3):730-739
高山湖泊吉仁错位于川西高原树线以上,受现代冰川融水补给影响.通过吉仁错沉积钻孔~(210)Pb/~(137)Cs定年和沉积枝角类和多环境代用指标分析,结合主成分分析和冗余分析等方法,高分辨率重建了近200 a来吉仁错枝角类组合和环境变化的过程.结果表明,尽管过去200 a来吉仁错枝角类组合一直以沿岸种为主,但仍经历了3个明显的变化阶段.1850 AD后,枝角类组合中Alonella nana、Chydorus sphaericus和Pleuroxus sp.的增加、以及Alona rustica和Alona guttata丰度的下降指示了水温和水体pH值的上升.1900 AD后枝角类通量的增高并不同步于组合的变化,指示了湖泊营养开始增加,这种不一致的变化分别代表了大气氮沉降和区域气候变暖的影响结果.多指标综合分析得出,过去150 a来,气候变暖和大气污染沉降通过直接和间接作用(流域冰川融水过程和植被土壤过程),较深刻地影响了湖泊物理过程(水温升高和无冰期加长)、营养过程(氮、磷营养升高)和酸碱平衡过程(碱性增强),改变了湖泊生物的生长季节,并通过促进藻类发育,最终引起了湖泊枝角类群落组合的变化和生物量的增加.1945 AD前后吉仁错枝角类与藻类群落结构和湖泊环境的同步变化,响应于持续增温背景下多环境过程的相互作用.  相似文献   

15.
Glaciation has continued in Antarctica for longer than anywhere else on Earth, so the long-term development of glaciated landforms can be investigated. Complex alpine valley heads up to 36 km wide are found in the Antarctic Peninsula. The largest of these may represent an advanced stage of alpine glaciation, having evolved from the earliest corries which could have developed around the early Oligocene. This study is based on a morphometric analysis of the plan form of 1680 alpine valley heads. This is a much larger sample than used by any previous study. Skewed distributions of dimensional properties (width, length and area) suggest that small corries are continually being added to the population, as older ones are enlarged and some eliminated by coalescence and ice sheet erosion. Very large features are found only in parts of Graham Land and Alexander Island, where lack of high-level ice sheet erosion has allowed the forms of mountain glaciation to dominate the landscape. The attainment of an equilibrium planform shape is suggested by the persistence of an equidimensional form, the development of characteristic or limiting values of other morphometric properties, e.g. planform closure and basin order, and by the intercorrelation of morphometric properties. A combination of branching and coalescence is fundamental in the development of corries. The latter results both in widening, which counteracts the tendency towards lengthening observed by other workers, and also in a limit to basin complexity. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
A technique for texturally controlled microsampling from rock thick sections and subsequent Rb–Sr dating of μg-sized samples has been developed. It allows direct dating of minerals unequivocally related to deformation. The technique has been applied to strictly synkinematically grown white mica prepared from mylonites related to the Defereggen–Antholz–Vals (DAV) fault south of the Tauern window (Eastern Alps). Control of deformation ages is provided by field relationships with independently dated plutons and dykes dated here by single mineral Rb–Sr. The field observations and isotopic ages are fully consistent and demonstrate that this is a reliable method for sub-mm-scale geochronology. The ages obtained establish that sinistral strike slip shearing associated with the DAV fault lasted from at least 33 Ma to 30 Ma, followed by an abrupt change to dextral transpression related to the adjacent Periadriatic fault.  相似文献   

17.
In the Lainbach catchment, unconsolidated Pleistocene moraine sediments are widely distributed. Because of the great natural risk of floods, together with extreme loads of sediments, investigations of runoff production processes have been conducted in this area. At hillslope scale three test sites with different states of soil development and vegetation cover were instrumented with V‐shaped weirs, precipitation gauges and measurement devices for electrical conductivity (EC) of discharge water. The EC has been used as a geochemical tracer for hydrograph separation, since the statistical relationship between content of dissolved Ca2+, Mg2+ cations and EC is highly significant for different stages of runoff. This method allows hydrograph separation at high temporal resolution for both the rising and falling limb of the hydrograph. The following results of the investigations can be resumed. If relief conditions are similar, the effectiveness of runoff production decreases with an increasing density of vegetation cover. The runoff delivery ratio decreases as well as the peaks of runoff. In contrast, concentration times of hillslope catchments are equal, even if vegetation cover is of great density and soils are well developed. As a reason for the short reaction times, different runoff production processes have been detected. On bare ground, infiltration excess overland flow intensified by surface sealing processes is the main source for quick runoff. On hillslopes well covered by vegetation, translatory flow processes indicated by soil water with high solute contents force a rapid runoff reaction only a few minutes after rainfall has begun. It is to be assumed that translatory flow is a runoff production process typical for hillslopes covered by vegetation in a steep alpine relief. By means of the areal distribution of the topographic index, concentration of runoff production on a small part of the catchment has been demonstrated for hillslopes densely covered by vegetation. The investigations have shown that there is a lack of studies on runoff production processes in steep alpine relief, as well as a deficit of methods to quantify hydraulic properties of coarse‐grained soils with a wide grain size distribution. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
The 1999 Chi‐Chi earthquake significantly altered the landscape of central Taiwan. Surface deformation produced by the earthquake along the trace of the Chelungpu thrust can be classified into two styles: (1) uplift without significant surface rupture, and (2) uplift accompanied by surface rupture. Here we examine areas that exhibited the first style of deformation (e.g. Wufeng). Seismic stress at the time of the main shock may have been relieved by high pore‐fluid pressure in a 300‐m‐thick sand and gravel aquifer. Along the thrust fault, frictional heating of these sediments resulted in thermal expansion and an increase in pore‐fluid pressure. High pore‐fluid pressure damped seismic‐wave energy and enhanced intergranular slips of unconsolidated sandy and gravel sediments, which were possibly assisted by sulphuric acid corrosion, leading to a high sulphate content in the groundwater (c. 70 mg L?1). These changes permitted surface folding and terrace‐style uplifting to occur without significant rupture. In contrast, other areas in which the second style of deformation is dominant (e.g. Fengyuen‐Shihkang) have thin (0–10 m) sand and gravel deposits and lower concentrations of sulphate (c. 30 mg L?1) in groundwater. In these areas, sediments were heated but not sufficiently to produce significant thermal expansion and increase in pore‐fluid pressure; accumulation of stress in these locations led to rupture at the ground surface, with the formation of steep fault scarps. The areas exhibiting the first deformation style are characterized by the presence of high pore‐fluid pressure, frictional heat conduction, and possibly chemical corrosion related to sulphuric acid attack and formation of sulphate, in contrast to those involving significant uplift and surface rupture. The areal distribution of these two surface deformation styles suggests that the aforementioned fluid‐related subsurface processes may have altered the characteristics of sediments and caused diverse responses to the quake. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
The paper presents an analysis of 17 long annual maximum series (AMS) of flood flows for Swiss Alpine basins, aimed at checking the presence of changes in the frequency regime of annual maxima. We apply Pettitt's change point test, the nonparametric sign test and Sen's test on trends. We also apply a parametric goodness‐of‐fit test for assessing the suitability of distributions estimated on the basis of annual maxima collected up to a certain year for describing the frequency regime of later observations. For a number of series the tests yield consistent indications for significant changes in the frequency regime of annual maxima and increasing trends in the intensity of annual maximum discharges. In most cases, these changes cannot be explained by anthropogenic causes only (e.g. streamflow regulation, construction of dams). Instead, we observe a statistically significant relationship between the year of change and the elevation of the catchment outlet. This evidence is consistent with the findings of recent studies that explain increasing discharges in alpine catchments with an increase in the temperature controlling the portion of mountain catchments above the freezing point. Finally, we analyse the differences in return periods (RPs) estimated for a given flood flow on the basis of recent and past observations. For a large number of the study AMS, we observe that, on average, the 100‐year flood for past observations corresponds to a RP of approximately 10 to 30 years on the basis of more recent observation. From a complementary perspective, we also notice that estimated RP‐year flood (i.e. flood quantile (FQ) associated with RP) increases on average by approximately 20% for the study area, irrespectively of the RP. Practical implications of the observed changes are illustrated and discussed in the paper. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
Fault plane solutions for earthquakes in the central Hellenic arc are analysed to determine the deformation and stress regimes in the Hellenic subduction zone in the vicinity of Crete. Fault mechanisms for earthquakes recorded by various networks or contained in global catalogues are collected. In addition, 34 fault plane solutions are determined for events recorded by our own local temporary network on central Crete in 2000–2001. The entire data set of 264 source mechanisms is examined for types of faulting and spatial clustering of mechanisms. Eight regions with significantly varying characteristic types of faulting are identified of which the upper (Aegean) plate includes four. Three regions contain interplate seismicity along the Hellenic arc from west to east and all events below are identified to occur within the subducting African lithosphere. We perform stress tensor inversion to each of the subsets in order to determine the stress field. Results indicate a uniform N-NNE direction of relative plate motion between the Ionian Sea and Rhodes resulting in orthogonal convergence in the western forearc and oblique (40–50) subduction in the eastern forearc. There, the plate boundary migrates towards the SE resulting in left-lateral strike-slip faulting that extends to onshore Eastern Crete. N110E trending normal faulting in the Aegean plate at this part is in accordance with this model. Along-arc extension is observed on Western Crete. Fault plane solutions for earthquakes within the dipping African lithosphere indicate that slab pull is the dominant force within the subduction process and responsible for the roll-back of the Hellenic subduction zone.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号