Managing tsunamis through early warning systems: A multidisciplinary approach

This study attempts to identify the key factors that will make a tsunami warning system most effective, to develop a framework in which results of natural science and engineering research can be effectively integrated into coastal natural hazard planning, and to develop a numerical example that illustrates how benefit-cost analysis may be used to assess early warning systems. Results of the study suggest that while the science of tsunami wave propagation and inundation is relatively advanced, our knowledge on the relationships between tsunami generation and undersea earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and landslides remains poor, resulting in significant uncertainties in tsunami forecasting. Probabilities of damaging tsunamis for many coastal regions are still unknown, making tsunami risk assessment and management difficult. Thus it is essential to develop new techniques to identify paleo-tsunami events and to compile and develop size and frequency information on historical tsunamis for different locations. An effective tsunami early warning system must include not only the ocean technologies for accurately detecting an emerging tsunami, but also a civil communication system through which the population can be timely warned by the local government and other sources. Since minimizing the evacuation time is a key factor to make a warning system effective, adequate pre-event education and preparation of the population must be a critical component of the system. Results of a numerical example of the South Pacific region suggest that investments in a tsunami warning system in the region may lead to significant economic benefits.     

精细化地震海啸波流实时预警系统研究与应用

基于Okada模型和非线性浅水波模型,结合高精度多层嵌套网格针对我国浙江沿海的温州和台州地区建立了越洋–近海–局部的精细化地震海啸波流实时预警系统,近岸的分辨率为900 m。该预警系统包括了并行化的数值计算模块,基于Python 2D绘图库的计算结果可视化处理模块,以及通过Python语言将所有经过数值计算的图形与动画产品集成在一个网页上的产品集成模块。一旦地震发生,该系统可根据地震的震源参数信息在10 min内完成数值计算、可视化处理,以及产品集成。选取2011年日本东北9.0级地震海啸结合实测数值对该系统进行模拟验证,进一步应用该系统模拟计算了日本南海海槽和琉球海沟潜在极端海啸的影响规律。结果表明,该预警系统可有效地提高地震海啸实时预警的时效性和准确度,为海啸的预警、减灾,以及辅助决策提供科学依据。     

Retrospective short-term forecast of the 1996 Andreanov (Aleutian Islands) tsunami

A brief review of the problem of short-term (operative) tsunami forecasting is presented. A method of short-term tsunami forecasting based on the sea level data at remote points is described. The forecast is based only on the seismological information about the coordinates of the earthquake’s epicenter. The application of this method for a retrospective forecast of the 1996 Andreanov tsunami demonstrates a satisfactory coincidence with the predicted and observed tsunami waveforms. The results are compared with the modeling prediction of the same event by other authors. The suggested method of the operative tsunami forecast can serve a basis for the development of a unique programming complex for operative forecasting and can be realized within regional and local tsunami warning services. The method can be used in tsunami warning systems at the stage of their development.     

Specific Features of the Propagation of Tsunamis in the Northwest Part of the Black Sea

We perform the numerical analysis of the propagation of tsunamis in the Black Sea from the zones of seismic generation located to the south of the Crimea and in the northwest part of the sea. It is shown that the tsunamis induced by earthquakes in the Crimean seismic zone are entrapped by the nearest part of the shelf and do not result in noticeable oscillations of level in the northwest part of the sea. This enables us to explain the absence of manifestations of tsunamis in 1927, 1939, and 1966 near Odessa. The tsunami waves generated by earthquakes in the northwest part of the sea are characterized by the directivity of their propagation. The wave height is maximum in the areas corresponding to the north and east directions of propagation. Hence, the north coast of the sea and the Kalamit Bay (Crimean Peninsula) are characterized by elevated tsunami hazard for earthquakes occurring in the northwest part of the Black Sea. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 6, pp. 46–53, November–December, 2005.     

Tsunami observations in the open ocean

Deep-sea tsunami measurements play a major role in understanding the physics of tsunami wave generation and propagation, and in the creation of an effective tsunami warning system. The paper provides an overview of the history of tsunami recording in the open ocean from the beginning (about 50 years ago) to the present day. It describes modern tsunami monitoring systems, including the Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART), innovative Japanese bottom cable projects, and the NEPTUNE-Canada geophysical bottom observatory. The specific peculiarities of seafloor longwave observations in the deep ocean are discussed and compared with those recorded in coastal regions. Tsunami detection in bottom presure observations is exemplified based on analysis of distant (22000 km) records of the 2004 Sumatra tsunami in the northeastern Pacific.     

日本南海海槽地震海啸对我国东海沿岸影响

本文利用数值模拟技术重现了1707年宝永地震海啸的传播过程,定量分析了我国东海沿岸海啸时空分布特征。计算结果表明,地震发生2.5小时后海啸波传至东海陆架,震后6小时浙江沿海地区遭到海啸的袭击,沿岸最大海啸波高为0.8米。通过海啸波在东海大陆架传播时海底地形与波幅的关系,研究分析了东海陆架缓变地形下海啸放大效应,为及时判断沿海可能的海啸强度和受灾程度提供了便捷的估算方法。此外,本文还评估了南海海槽发生极端地震时,中国东海沿岸的海啸危险性,为东海区域针对日本南海海槽进行海啸预警和减灾评估提供定量科学的参考。     

一个覆盖太平洋区域的地震海啸波幅预报系统及检验

基于线性长波方程和缓变地形近岸波幅格林公式建立了覆盖整个太平洋区域的准实时地震海啸波幅预报系统。系统利用了GPU并行加速技术,可在90 s之内完成太平洋区域32 h的海啸传播计算和中国沿海城市岸段的波幅特征值预报。筛选了自2006年以来的9次发生在太平洋区域,矩震级（Mw）超过8.0且资料丰富的历史地震海啸事件,对预报系统进行了后报检验。结果表明,线性长波模型能够很好的模拟海啸在大洋中的传播过程;格林公式能够较为准确的估算缓变水深和开阔地形条件下的近岸海啸最大波幅,波幅预警准确率可达80%,基本满足海啸预警需求。以2011年日本Mw9.0地震海啸为例,评估了该系统对中国城市岸段的波幅预警能力,结论基本合理。需要注意的是,利用该系统计算对海啸源特别敏感的近场海啸波幅可能产生较大偏差。提出了若要进一步提高定量海啸波幅预警的准确率,可从以下两个方面加强研究和业务实践:一是采用多数据联合反演方法提升海啸源的精度;二是提高格林公式的适用性,或者构建高效的近岸精细化海啸数值预报系统。     

海上丝绸之路海啸灾害危险分析

海上丝绸之路不仅是商业和贸易的通道, 也是东西方文化友谊的道路。2004年印度洋海啸对丝路沿线的多个沿海国家造成了重大破坏。因此需要对海啸发生规律和危害进行分析, 以确保海上丝绸之路上经济和文化交流的安全。为探索和识别海上丝绸之路上的海啸灾害, 本文给出了历史海啸事件的特征和规律。从震源震级、震源深度和水深等震源参数中发现了一些历史海啸数据背后的有用信息。本文还探讨了不同震级引起海啸的概率问题。分析结果表明：海上丝绸之路上的海啸主要发生在8个主要构造断层, 每个断层都有不同的海啸发生规律。在统计分析的基础上, 本文采用数值模型模拟了海上丝绸之路沿岸的潜在海啸,计算结果展示了海上丝绸之路沿岸的潜在海啸灾害程度。本文的研究成果有助于海啸灾害预警, 能够为保证海上丝绸之路贸易交流的安全提供科学参考。     

Historical tsunami in the Makran Subduction Zone off the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan and results of numerical modeling

Tsunami hazard in the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ), off the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan, was studied by numerical modeling of historical tsunami in this region. Although the MSZ triggered the second deadliest tsunami in the Indian Ocean, among those known, the tsunami hazard in this region has yet to be analyzed in detail. This paper reports the results of a risk analysis using five scenario events based on the historic records, and identifies a seismic gap area in western Makran off the southern coast of Iran. This is a possible site for a future large earthquake and tsunami. In addition, we performed numerical modeling to explain some ambiguities in the historical reports. Based on the modeling results, we conclude that either the extreme run-up of 12–15 m assigned for the 1945 Makran tsunami in the historical record was produced by a submarine landslide triggered by the parent earthquake, or that these reports are exaggerated. The other possibility could be the generation of the huge run-up heights by large displacements on splay faults. The results of run-up modeling reveal that a large earthquake and tsunami in the MSZ is capable of producing considerable run-up heights in the far field. Therefore, it is possible that the MSZ was the source of the tsunami encountered by a Portuguese fleet in Dabhul in 1524.     

全球海啸预警系统发展及其对我国的启示

20世纪以来频发的海啸灾害引起了国际社会的广泛关注,各沿海国家不仅加大了海啸预警建设、海啸灾害危险性和海啸基础理论研究方面的投入,更进一步加强了国际社会在应对海啸灾害方面的交流与合作。我国于1983年加入"太平洋海啸预警系统",经过30多年的努力,我国的海啸预警系统框架已基本搭建成型,但仍有许多需要改进和完善的地方。本文主要介绍了国内外和国际海啸预警系统的建设现状,指出当前我国海啸预警系统存在的问题,并就未来完善和提高给出粗浅建议。     

我国海啸灾害及预警现状与建议

本文给出了海啸定义及其它有关概念与术语,简要给出了我国及全球的海啸灾害.全面介绍了我国海啸监测能力、预警现状、研究成果以及有关国际合作的情况,重点介绍了我国自主研制的海啸数值模式,利用该模式我们模拟了2004年12月26日发生在印度洋大海啸以及假想的发生在我国南海的海啸对周边国家的影响.对海啸预警中存在的问题及未来急需开展的工作,作者也将一一给予阐述.     

Evaluation of the Parameters of Tsunami Waves along the South Coast of the Crimean Peninsula

Within the framework of a nonlinear model of long waves, we present the estimates of the parameters of tsunami waves along the south coast of the Crimean Peninsula (from Cape Khersones to Cape Meganom) with a space resolution of 2.5 km. The numerical analysis is carried out for four typical positions of the elliptic zones of generation and the range of magnitudes 6.5–7.5. We study the space structure of waves and determine the amplitudes and periods of oscillations of the level at 11 points of the analyzed part of the coastline of the Black Sea. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 3, pp. 3 – 10, May–June, 2005.     

The Kuril Earthquakes and tsunamis of November 15, 2006, and January 13, 2007: Observations,analysis, and numerical modeling

Major earthquakes occurred in the region of the Central Kuril Islands on November 15, 2006 (M _w = 8.3) and January 13, 2007 (M _w = 8.1). These earthquakes generated strong tsunamis recorded throughout the entire Pacific Ocean. The first was the strongest trans-Pacific tsunami of the past 42 years (since the Alaska tsunami in 1964). The high probability of a strong earthquake (M _w ≥ 8.5) and associated destructive tsunami occurring in this region was predicted earlier. The most probable earthquake source region was investigated and possible scenarios for the tsunami generation were modeled. Investigations of the events that occurred on November 15, 2006, and January 13, 2007, enabled us to estimate the validity of the forecast and compare the parameters of the forecasted and observed earthquakes and tsunamis. In this paper, we discuss the concept of “seismic gaps,” which formed the basis for the forecast of these events, and put forward further assumptions about the expected seismic activity in the region. We investigate the efficiency of the tsunami warning services and estimate the statistical parameters for the observed tsunami waves that struck the Far Eastern coast of Russia and Northern Japan. The propagation and transformation of the 2006 and 2007 tsunamis are studied using numerical hydrodynamic modeling. The spatial characteristics of the two events are compared.     

有限断层模型在2015年9月16日智利Mw8.3级地震海啸数值模拟中的应用与评估

2015年9月16日22时54分（当地时间）智利中部近岸发生M_w8.3级地震,震源深度25 km。同时,强震的破裂区长200 km,宽100 km,随之产生了中等强度的越洋海啸。海啸影响了智利沿岸近700 km的区域,局部地区监测到近5 m的海啸波幅和超过13 m的海啸爬坡高度。太平洋区域的40多个海啸浮标及200多个近岸潮位观测站详细记录了此次海啸的越洋传播过程,为详细研究此次海啸近场及远场传播及演化规律提供了珍贵的数据。本文选择有限断层模型和自适应网格海啸数值模型建立了既可以兼顾越洋海啸的计算效率又可以实现近场海啸精细化模拟的高分辨率海啸模型。模拟对比分析了海啸的越洋传播特征,结果表明采用所建立的模型可以较好地再现远场及近场海啸特征,特别是对近场海啸的模拟结果非常理想。表明有限断层可以较好地约束近场、特别是局部区域的破裂特征,可为海啸预警提供更加精确的震源信息,结合高分辨率的海啸数值预报模式实现海啸传播特征的精细化预报。本文结合观测数据与数值模拟结果初步分析了海啸波的频散特征及其对模型结果的影响。同时对观测中典型的海啸波特征进行的简要的总结。谱分析结果表明海啸波的能量主要分布在10~50 min周期域内。这些波特征提取是现行海啸预警信息中未涉及,但又十分重要的预警参数。进一步对这些波动特征的详细研究将为海啸预警信息及预警产品的完善提供技术支撑。     

Spectra of the Black-Sea tsunamis

We perform the analysis of the time spectra of four tsunamis generated in the Black Sea by the earthquakes of 26.07.1927, 11.09.1927, 26.12.1939, and 12.07.1966. For the analysis of the spectra, we used digitized marigrams obtained for 12 points of the Black-Sea coast. The obtained spectra are, as a rule, multimode and have 1–4 spectral maxima. One maximum corresponds to the periods typical of tsunami waves and the other maxima correspond to the oscillations of the sea level with lower frequencies. It seems likely that the events of tsunami are accompanied by low-frequency oscillations of the level caused by the atmospheric forcing, seiches, or other factors. In numerous cases, the oscillations from the predominant energy range lie outside the characteristic range of periods of the tsunami waves. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 5, pp. 21–30, September–October, 2007.     

Assessment of tsunami hazard for coastal areas of Shandong Province,China

Shandong province is located on the east coast of China and has a coastline of about 3100 km. There are only a few tsunami events recorded in the history of Shandong Province, but the tsunami hazard assessment is still necessary as the rapid economic development and increasing population of this area. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential danger posed by tsunamis for Shandong Province. The numerical simulation method was adopted to assess the tsunami hazard for coastal areas of Shandong Province. The Cornell multi-grid coupled tsunami numerical model (COMCOT) was used and its efficacy was verified by comparison with three historical tsunami events. The simulated maximum tsunami wave height agreed well with the observational data. Based on previous studies and statistical analyses, multiple earthquake scenarios in eight seismic zones were designed, the magnitudes of which were set as the potential maximum values. Then, the tsunamis they induced were simulated using the COMCOT model to investigate their impact on the coastal areas of Shandong Province. The numerical results showed that the maximum tsunami wave height, which was caused by the earthquake scenario located in the sea area of the Mariana Islands, could reach up to 1.39 m off the eastern coast of Weihai city. The tsunamis from the seismic zones of the Bohai Sea, Okinawa Trough, and Manila Trench could also reach heights of >1 m in some areas, meaning that earthquakes in these zones should not be ignored. The inundation hazard was distributed primarily in some northern coastal areas near Yantai and southeastern coastal areas of Shandong Peninsula. When considering both the magnitude and arrival time of tsunamis, it is suggested that greater attention be paid to earthquakes that occur in the Bohai Sea. In conclusion, the tsunami hazard facing the coastal area of Shandong Province is not very serious; however, disasters could occur if such events coincided with spring tides or other extreme oceanic conditions. The results of this study will be useful for the design of coastal engineering projects and the establishment of a tsunami warning system for Shandong Province.     

Numerical analysis of the propagation and amplification of tsunami waves of seismic generation in the Sea of Azov

The numerical analysis of the evolution of tsunamis is performed for the Sea of Azov. Our calculations are carried out on a grid with steps of 500 m, as applied to seaquakes with magnitudes within the range 6–7 for 18 circular zones of generation covering almost the entire water area of the sea. It is shown that the oscillations of the sea level in the form of cellular waves are formed as a result of the wave reflections from the coasts. Small areas of the elevated activity of waves are formed in the zones of irregularity of the coastline on the north coast of the sea and in the zones of shoals in the southeast part of the basin. On the basis of the determined values of extreme elevations and lowerings of the sea level, we can make a conclusion that the tsunami hazard is quite low for the coast of the Sea of Azov.     

基于数值模拟的渤海海域地震海啸危险性定量化研究

根据地震海啸产生的条件,结合渤海海域的地形特征、地质构造、地震学特征和历史地震及海啸记录对渤海海域潜在的地震海啸进行了数值模拟研究。分析了渤海可能引发地震海啸的震源区域,讨论了渤海发生海啸灾害的可能性。文中通过数值模拟再现了渤海历史上几次规模较大的地震事件可能引发的海啸情景,研究分析了可能的地震海啸在渤海及周边海域的传播过程及波动特征.地震海啸传播模型采用基于四叉树原理的自适应网格加密技术,有效解决了局部分辨率与计算效率之间的矛盾。数值计算包括地震海啸产生及传播过程。利用该模型对渤海潜在的地震海啸进行了数值计算,基于数值计算结果定量阐述了渤海海域潜在地震海啸对渤海局部岸段及北黄海沿岸的影响,给出了渤海可能地震海啸危险性划分;研究结果将为我国海啸危险性分析和海啸预警技术研究工作提供技术支持。     

Impacts of the 26 December 2004 tsunami in Eastern Africa

The tsunami of 26 December 2004 was the largest ever recorded in the Indian Ocean, triggered by the 3rd largest earthquake in 100 years measuring 9.2 moment magnitude. The epicenter of the earthquake was off Banda Aceh on the Indian Ocean coast of the island of Sumatra in Indonesia, centered at 3.316°N, 95.854°E. A sudden upward movement of the seafloor that averaged ∼6 m occurred along almost 1300 km of the north-east Indian Ocean plate at 0059 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) and lasted 8 min. Because of the lack of preparedness and absence of warning systems in the Indian Ocean the tsunami spread silently across the ocean over a span of 8 h causing massive destruction including the deaths of over 250,000 people, with maximum damages occurring in Indonesia, Thailand, Sri Lanka, India and the Maldives. Moderate to low damages were recorded in the Seychelles, Socotra (Yemen) and Somalia, though in the latter a highly vulnerable town was impacted resulting in over 300 deaths. Most of eastern Africa was spared massive damages from the waves due to (a) distance from the epicenter (>6000 km), (b) the dissipation of energy of the tsunami by shallow banks in the middle of the Indian Ocean (the Seychelles banks, Saya de Malha and Cargados Carajos Shoals) and (c) at least for Kenya and Tanzania, the first and largest waves hit at low tide. In Kenya and Tanzania these factors resulted in the waves being experienced as tidal surges of 1–1.5 m amplitude lasting 5–10 min. Damages recorded for eastern Africa include 11 deaths in Tanzania and 1 in Kenya, of people walking and swimming over shallow intertidal flats being trapped by the advancing and receding tidal surges, damage to boats anchored in shallow water and inundation in Mauritius and Rodrigues. Official information, warning and response networks were nonexistent, and even when an official response was generated in Kenya the public demonstrated no faith or willingness to act on warnings from officials such as the police. Importantly, information on the tsunami and the generation of an official response was dependent on two technologies, satellite television and mobile telephony, and these should be built into future warning systems as key mechanisms and backups to official information and warning networks.