Sediment balances in the Blue Nile River Basin

Rapid population growth in the upper Blue Nile basin has led to fast land-use changes from natural forest to agricultural land.This resulted in speeding up the soil erosion process in the highlands and increasing sedimentation further downstream in reservoirs and irrigation canals.At present,several dams are planned across the Blue Nile River in Ethiopia and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is currently under construction near the border with Sudan.This will be the largest hydroelectric power plant in Africa.The objective of this paper is to quantify the river flows and sediment loads along the Blue Nile River network.The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was used to estimate the water flows from un-gauged sub-basins.To assess model performance,the estimated sediment loads were compared to the measured ones at selected locations.For the gauged sub-basins,water flows and sediment loads were derived from the available flow and sediment data.To fill in knowledge gaps,this study included a field survey in which new data on suspended solids and flow discharge were collected along the Blue Nile and on a number of tributaries.The comparison between the results of this study and previous estimates of the sediment load of the Blue Nile River at El Deim,near the Ethiopian Sudanese border,show that the sediment budgets have the right order of magnitude,although some uncertainties remain.This gives confidence in the results of this study providing the first sediment balance of the entire Blue Nile catchment at the sub-basin scale.     

Toward international cooperation in the study of recent crustal movements in Africa

How might an international plan for crustal-movement studies in Africa be implemented? This was the basic question underlying much of the discussion at the First International Symposium on Crustal Movements in Africa, convened in May 1981 in Addis Ababa at the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa. Three years later, in November/December 1984, the Second Symposium was held in Cairo, Egypt; and in April 1986, some outstanding questions were dealt with at the Third Symposium on Geodesy in Africa held in Yamoussoukro, Ivory Coast, and at the International Symposium on Global Changes in Africa during the Quaternary, held in Dakar, Senegal.The present state and possible development of recent crustal movement studies in Africa are discussed. Finally, the cooperation of all scientists interested in such studies is solicited.     

川东地区古生界主要泥页岩最高古温度特征

泥页岩的热演化过程与其经历的古温度史相关,最高古温度决定它的最终热演化程度.本文利用古温标方法恢复了川东地区古生界主要泥页岩层系经历的最高古温度.研究结果表明,它们在距今80-90 Ma时达到最高古温度,龙潭组顶面最高古温度150~220℃,龙潭组底面最高古温度160~230℃,龙马溪组顶面最高古温度160~250℃,五峰组底面最高古温度170~260℃,筇竹寺组顶面最高古温度210~320℃,筇竹寺组底面最高古温度210~320℃.各层最高古温度平面展布特征相似,最高温出现在涪陵-丰都一带,向南与向北温度均呈降低趋势,在达州-开江一带局部出现较高温.此外,结合川东地区古热流史分析认为,川东古生界泥页岩热演化过程具有阶段性,现今处于高-过成熟状态,达到最高古温度后生烃作用停止.川东地区经历较高的最高古温度随后快速抬升剥蚀有利于页岩气的成烃与成藏.     

Enhancing the Forecasting of Monthly Streamflow in the Main Key Stations of the River Nile Basin

Predicting the streamflow of rivers can have a significant economic impact, as this can help in agricultural water management and in providing protection from water shortages and possible flood damage. In this study, two statistical models have been used; Deseasonalized Autoregressive moving average model (DARMA) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to predict monthly streamflow which important for reservoir operation policy using different time scale, monthly and 1/3 monthly (ten-days) flow data for River Nile basin at five key stations. The streamflow series is deseasonalized at different time scale and then an appropriate nonseasonal stochastic DARMA (p, q) models are built by using the plots of Partial Auto Correlation Function (PACF) to determine the order (p) of DARMA model. Then the deseasonalized data for key stations are used as input to ANN models with lags equals to the order (p) of DARMA model. The performance of ANN and DARMA models are compared using statistical methods. The results show that the developed model (using 1/3 monthly (ten-days) and ANN) has the best performance to predict monthly streamflow at all key stations. The results also show that the relative error in the developed model result did not exceed 9% while in the traditional models reach to 68% in the flood months in the testing period. The result also indicates that ANN has considerable potential for river flow forecasting.     

Trends in rainfall and runoff in the Blue Nile Basin: 1964–2003

Most of the water from the Nile originates in Ethiopia but there is no agreement on how land degradation or climate change affects the future flow in downstream countries. The objective of this paper is to improve the understanding of future conditions by analysing historical trends. During the period 1964–2003, the average monthly basin‐wide precipitation and monthly discharge data were collected and analysed statistically for two stations in the upper 30% of the Blue Nile Basin and monthly and 10‐day discharge data of one station at the Sudan–Ethiopia border. A rainfall–runoff model examined the causes for observed trends. The results show that, while there was no significant trend in the seasonal and annual basin‐wide average rainfall, significant increases in discharge during the long rainy season (June to September) were observed at all three stations. In the upper Blue Nile, the short rainy season flow (March to May) increased, while the dry season flow (October to February) stayed the same. At the Sudan border, the dry season flow decreased significantly with no change in the short rainy season flow. The difference in response was likely due to the construction of weir in the 1990s at the Lake Tana outlet that affected the upper Blue Nile discharge significantly but affected less than 10% of the discharge at the Sudan border. The rainfall–runoff model reproduced the observed trends, assuming that an additional 10% of the hillsides were eroded in the 40‐year time span and generated overland flow instead of interflow and base flow. Models concerning future trends in the Nile cannot assume that the landscape runoff processes will remain static. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Active and buried authigenic barite fronts in sediments from the Eastern Cape Basin

Sediment cores retrieved in the Benguela coastal upwelling system off Namibia show very distinct enrichments of solid phase barium at the sulfate/methane transition (SMT). These barium peaks represent diagenetic barite (BaSO₄) fronts which form by the reaction of upwardly diffusing barium with interstitial sulfate. Calculated times needed to produce these barium enrichments indicate a formation time of about 14,000 yr. Barium spikes a few meters below the SMT were observed at one of the investigated sites (GeoB 8455). Although this sulfate-depleted zone is undersaturated with respect to barite, the dominant mineral phase of these buried barium enrichments was identified as barite by scanning electron microscopy (SEM). This is the first study which reports the occurrence/preservation of pronounced barite enrichments in sulfate-depleted sediments buried a few meters below the SMT. At site GeoB 8455 high concentrations of dissolved barium in pore water as well as barium in the solid phase were observed. Modeling the measured barium concentrations at site GeoB 8455 applying the numerical model CoTReM reveals that the dissolution rate of barite directly below the SMT is about one order of magnitude higher than at the barium enrichments deeper in the sediment core. This indicates that the dissolution of barite at these deeper buried fronts must be retarded. Thus, the occurrence of the enrichments in solid phase barium at site GeoB 8455 could be explained by decreased dissolution rates of barite due to the changes in the concentration of barite in the sediment, as well as changes in the saturation state of fluids. Furthermore, the alteration of barite into witherite (BaCO₃) via the transient phase barium sulfide could lead to the preservation of a former barite front as BaCO₃. The calculations and modeling indicate that a relocation of the barite front to a shallower depth occurred between the last glacial maxium (LGM) and the Pleistocene/Holocene transition. We suggest that an upward shift of the SMT occurred at that time, most likely as a result of an increase in the methanogenesis rates due to the burial of high amounts of organic matter below the SMT.     

柴达木盆地东部地震地面运动放大效应

柴达木盆地是青藏高原东北部大型断陷山间盆地,该地区的流动观测记录了2008年11月10日发生于大柴旦附近的M_W6.3地震。和附近的基岩上的记录相比,盆地内部的记录显示出非常显著的地面运动放大效应,表现为峰值速度的增大、持续时间的延长,其呈现出长持续时间的后续震相。傅里叶频谱分析表明盆地内部显著的后续震相的频率和直达波相比较低,地面质点运动轨迹图显示后续震相为面波运动特征。为了解释地面运动的差异,构建二维模型,通过交错网格高阶有限差分方法计算了地震波在盆地内部的传播过程,结果显示盆地内部低速层的存在造成直达波的放大以及多次反射与转换,盆地边缘结构造成的波的相干叠加产生了强烈的次生面波,其低频、大振幅、长持续时间的特征是盆地内部地面运动放大的主要原因。     

Spatial,inter and intra‐annual variability of the Upper Blue Nile Basin rainfall

In this study, monthly and annual Upper Blue Nile Basin rainfall data were analyzed to learn the rainfall statistics and its temporal and spatial distribution. Frequency analysis and spatial characterization of rainfall in the Upper Blue Nile Basin are presented. Frequency analysis was performed on monthly basin rainfall. Monthly basin average rainfall data were computed from a network of 32 gauges with varying lengths of records. Monthly rainfall probability distribution varies from month to month fitting Gamma‐2, Normal, Weibull and Log‐Normal distributions. The January, July, October and November basin rainfall fit the Gamma‐2 probability distribution. The February, June and December ones fit Weibull distribution. The March, April, May and August rainfall fit Normal distribution. The September rainfall fits Log‐Normal distribution. Upper Blue Nile Basin is relatively wet with a mean annual rainfall of 1423 mm (1960–2002) with a standard deviation of 125 mm. The annual rainfall has a Normal probability distribution. The 100‐year‐drought basin annual rainfall is 1132 mm and the 100‐year‐wet basin annual rainfall is 1745 mm. The dry season is from November through April. The wet season runs from June through September with 74% of the annual rainfall. October and May are transition months. Monthly and annual rainfalls for return periods 2‐, 5‐, 10‐, 25‐, 50‐ and 100‐year dry and wet patterns are presented. Spatial distribution of annual rainfall over the basin is mapped and shows high variation with the southern tip receiving as high as 2049 mm and the northeastern tip as low as 794 mm annual average rainfall. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

青海乌兰盆地东缘断裂带的新活动特征

在青海乌兰盆地东缘山前冲洪积扇上新发现了一条长约 2 2km的逆冲断裂带 ,该断裂带是NNW向的鄂拉山右旋走滑断裂带北段西侧的次级挤压构造。其新活动受主断裂带的制约和影响 ,地貌上表现为明显的正向断层陡坎。晚更新世以来其垂直滑动速率为 0 11～ 0 17mm/a ,全新世晚期的垂直滑动速率为 0 35mm/a。综合探槽剖面及断层陡坎年代可以确定四次古地震事件 ,其年代分别为距今 2 4 6 5 0± 85 0a、 14 2 0 0± 70 0a、 5 2 0 0±5 2 0a和 2 2 5 0± 380a ,古地震活动具有不均匀性。     

滇池盆地东缘白邑-横冲断裂南段的浅层地震勘探研究

本文用浅层地震反射波法对可能穿越昆明新城区东部第四系覆盖区的白邑-横冲断裂南段进行了探测,结果表明:采用浅层地震反射波法探测隐伏断层是有效的,在滇池盆地东缘,白邑-横冲断裂南段东支在隐伏区存在,断面接近直立,视倾角约80°,具有高倾角张性正断性质,基岩垂直错距为10—13m,断裂规模由北向南减小;同时,没有发现西支次级断层存在迹象。据土层测龄结果,东支断裂最新活动时代为第四纪中更新世晚期。     

Geophysical evidence of the Eastern Marginal Fault of the Cheb Basin (Czech Republic)

The western part of the Bohemian Massif hosts an intersection of two regional fault zones, the SW-NE trending Oh?e/Eger Graben and the NNW-SSE trending Mariánské Lázně Fault, which has been reactivated several times in the geological history and controlled the formation of the Tertiary Cheb Basin. The broader area of the Cheb Basin is also related to permanent seismic activity of M_L 3+ earthquake swarms. The Eastern Marginal Fault of the Cheb Basin (northern segment of the Mariánské Lázně Fault) separates the basin sediments and underlying granites in the SW from the Kru?né Hory/Erzgebirge Mts. crystalline unit in the NE. We describe a detailed geophysical survey targeted to locating the Eastern Marginal Fault and determining its geometry in the depth. The survey was conducted at the Kopanina site near the Nový Kostel focal zone, which shows the strongest seismic activity of the whole Western Bohemia earthquake swarm region. Complex geophysical survey included gravimetry, electrical resistivity tomography, audiomagnetotellurics and seismic refraction. We found that the rocks within the Eastern Marginal Fault show low resistivity, low seismic velocity and density, which indicates their deep fracturing, weathering and higher water content. The dip of the fault in shallow depths is about 60° towards SW. At greater depths, the slope turns to subvertical with dip angle of about 80°. Results of geoelectrical methods show blocky fabric of the Cheb Basin and deep weathering of the granite bedrock, which is consistent with geologic models based on borehole surveys.     

The origin and the formation laws of groundwater and mine water chemistry in the Eastern Donets Basin

Successive classification modeling of multivariate observations was used to objectively identify and quantitatively describe four major hydrogeochemical directions of changes in mine water chemistry and two hydrogeochemical trends for groundwater in the Eastern Donets Basin (two types of vertical hydrogeochemical zonality). Processes along the first hydrogeochemical direction result in the formation of acid sulfate mineralized water, those along the second direction form neutral chloride-sulfate waters, those along the third direction form sulfate-chloride and chloride, and those along the fourth direction form soda, hydrocarbonate-sulfate-chloride waters; the processes of sulfur oxidation and water mixing play the main role in the formation of water chemistry. In the case of groundwater, the first trend (direct zonality) manifests itself in the formation of highly mineralized chloride sodium water (mineralization of up to 60–80 g/l), while the second trend (inverse zonality) results in the formation of moderately mineralized soda hydrocarbonate-chloride and chloride sodium water (1–3 g/l). The genesis of water chemistry is explained with the engagement of infiltration, sedimentation, and evaporation-condensation hypotheses. Giving preference to the evaporation-condensation genesis of groundwater chemistry according to the second trend, the authors came to the conclusion that the Eastern Donets Basin is promising in terms of oil and gas accumulations.     

若尔盖盆地RM孔揭示的过去14万年古环境

根据青藏高原东部若尔盖盆地ＲＭ孔湖泊沉积物自生碳酸盐酸盐碳氧同位素,碳酸盐含量,木本花粉含量以及有机质量以及有机质含量分析,重建了１４万年以来的古气候与古环境过程,结果表明,１４万年来有５个气候环境显著变化时期,对应于深海氧同位素５个阶段。