气温插值中不同空间插值方法的适用性分析——以江苏省为例

气温是最重要的气象因子之一,空间插值为台站气象数据降尺度提供了有效方法.本文利用江苏省67个气象台站2003年的逐日气温资料计算逐月平均气温和年平均气温,结合空间分辨率为30mX 30m的DEM数据,分别利用反距离权重法、张力样条插值法、普通克里格插值法和协同克里格插值法,对月和年平均气温进行插值,并利用交叉验证法对插...     

湛江气温的多时间尺度特征及其变化趋势预测

利用MHAT小波函数分析了湛江市近50年来年平均气温的多时间尺度变化特征，并采用Kalman滤波模型对年平均温度的变化趋势进行了预测研究。结果表明，在半个多世纪的气候变化过程中包含了16a、4a和准2a的周期振荡，20世纪80年代中期以来湛江气温持续升高，且未来几年仍处于偏高阶段。卡尔曼滤波模型对湛江年平均气温的预测中，独立样本预测的平均绝对误差（MAE）等于0．30℃，相对误差为1．24％，对短期气候预测工作具有较高的参考价值。     

白银市气温年代际变化及均生函数预测模型的应用

讨论了白银市气温突变及年代际变化特征,并利用均生函数预测模型对白银市气温进行预测试验.在1997～2003年预测试验中,结果表明,均生函数预测模型可以较好地拟合气温的气候变化趋势,对季、年气温有较好的预测能力.     

湛江气温的多时间尺度特征及其变化趋势预测

利用MHAT小波函数分析了湛江市近50年来年平均气温的多时间尺度变化特征,并采用Kalman滤波模型对年平均温度的变化趋势进行了预测研究。结果表明,在半个多世纪的气候变化过程中包含了16 a4、a和准2 a的周期振荡,20世纪80年代中期以来湛江气温持续升高,且未来几年仍处于偏高阶段。卡尔曼滤波模型对湛江年平均气温的预测中,独立样本预测的平均绝对误差(MAE)等于0.30℃,相对误差为1.24%,对短期气候预测工作具有较高的参考价值。     

陕西近40年气候变化特征的分析

利用陕西96个台站近40a气候资料，通过对气温和降水两个基本气象要素变化特征进行全面分析，得到陕西气候变化的一些特征。（1）近40a来，陕西平均气温在经历了20世纪60年代后期的低温后，从80年代中期开始有明显的上升趋势，陕北西部上升幅度最为明显；冬季平均气温明显上升，夏季平均气温有明显的降低趋势；极端气温明显上升，特别是90年代以后极端最低气温上升明显。（2）陕西平均年总降水量波动略有减少，自20世纪90年代以后冬季降水量增加明显，夏季降水量减少，尤其是关中西部增加明显。（3）年平均气温、季平均气温变化存在以1985年为跃变点，这次跃变比全国晚5～7a，比西北地区提前1a。     

动力气候模式输出产品释用技术的研究和应用

对国家气候中心１９９６年１～１２月用Ｔ６３模式所作的５００ｈＰａ３４次月延伸预报进行了检验评估,并对模式的系统性误差进行了分析和订正。在假定订正后的Ｔ６３延伸预报完全准确的条件下,用ＥＣＭＷＦ旬平均高度场和西南区域月平均气温和月雨量资料,建立了用Ｔ６３预报产品预测西南区域月要素场的一种完全预报（ＰＰ）的动力统计关系。并对西南区域１９９６年２月至１９９７年１月逐月平均气温和降水进行了预报试验。     

青藏高原植被变化特征及其对气候变化的影响

利用1982-2001年美国国家航天航空局(NASA)的归一化植被指数(NDVI)资料以及55个青藏高原地区气象台站实测的最高气温、最低气温、平均气温和降水资料,初步分析了青藏高原地区各季节植被变化特征及其对气候变化的影响,通过分析发现,各季节青藏高原地区NDVI均以增长为主.特别是高原南部、北部和西部等地区增加明显,高原中东部地区植被有所减少.通过相关分析和台站概率相关分析发现,高原冬季和春季NDVI与后期春季和夏季的最高气温、最低气温、平均气温和降水有较好的正相关关系,但有的表现在相关系数比较显著,有的表现为概率相关较明显.     

正交筛选模型在气候变化预测中的应用

利用时间序列经适当数学变换后生成的均生函数，建立了一个可用于长期气候变化趋势预测的数学模型，并将此模型用于四川地区年平均气温及年降水总量的历史拟合及预测。结果表明：模型对较长时间序列的多步预测有较好的效果。     

陕西近50年极端气温事件分析

为分析陕西极端温度事件的气候变化特征,选用陕西75站1961～2010年逐日平均气温、最高气温和最低气温资料,应用气候统计诊断分析方法,分析了陕西近50年极端气温事件的气候变化事实。结果表明:近50年陕西极端冷事件发生的频次呈显著减少趋势,其中陕北长城沿线风沙区和黄土高原沟壑区的冷夜日数、冷昼日数、结冰日数、冬季寒冷日数、冬季严寒日数减少趋势尤为显著;关中平原霜冻日数、冷夜日数、冷昼日数呈明显减少趋势,秦岭南麓浅山区和汉江河谷及巴山山区冷夜、冷昼日数也呈现减少趋势。与此同时陕西极端暖事件发生频次呈显著增多趋势,陕北长城沿线风沙区暖夜、暖昼日数线性增加率为6～7d/10a,秦岭南麓浅山区暖昼日数增加趋势显著,其线性增加率达到6.3d/10a,而关中平原炎热夜数也呈比较显著的增加趋势。     

京津冀地区NDVI变化及气候因子驱动分析

植被覆盖动态监测及与气候变化的响应,是陆地生态系统研究的重要内容。本文以2001-2013年间京津冀地区MOD13A 3月合成NDVI数据,结合生长季的降水和气温资料,运用偏相关和复相关分析、趋势分析方法,研究了该区域NDVI的变化特征和空间分布,以及其区域植被覆盖变化的气候驱动力。结果表明,该区域NDVI最大值在13a间缓慢增加,植被覆盖呈现改善趋势;NDVI和生长季降雨量及平均气温的平均偏相关系数分别为0.20和-0.14,表明在年际变化水平上,京津冀地区NDVI总体与降水量呈正相关,与平均气温呈负相关,且降水对NDVI的影响大于温度对NDVI的影响。对植被覆盖驱动分区得出,降水和气温驱动型占区域面积的5.68%;单独降水驱动型和气温驱动型分别占4.51%、0.18%;区域内植被覆盖变化主要受非气候因子驱动型为主,所占比例为89.63%,表明人类活动对植被变化的影响巨大。     

基于机器学习的参考作物蒸散量估算研究

参考作物蒸散量（Reference Evapotranspiration, ET₀）的准确估算对区域水资源管理和分配、流域水量平衡以及气候变化等研究具有重要作用。新疆地处我国西北干旱地区,水资源供需矛盾尖锐,精确估算该地区的ET₀有助于其科学合理地调配水资源,缓解水资源供需压力。FAO推荐的Penman-Monteith法是计算ET₀的标准方法,但该方法需要多项气象因子,而新疆地区气象站点较少且分布不均,精确完备的气象数据在新疆大部分区域难以获取。因此,如何使用有限气象因子获取高精度的ET₀在新疆地区备受关注。本文基于中国气象数据网提供的新疆地区1980—2019年的地面气候资料日值数据集,在日和月尺度下,通过对最高气温T_max、最低气温T_min、平均气温T_avg、风速U₂、相对湿度RH和日照时数n共6项气象因子进行敏感性分析,形成不同的气象因子组合;然后使用SVM、RF、GBDT和ELM 4种机器学习算法,以FAO-56 PM计算值为标准值,对新疆地区的ET₀进行了拟合建模;最后,从拟合精度、稳定性和计算代价3个方面对模型进行评价。研究表明：① 在新疆地区,ET₀对RH、T_max和U₂敏感系数级别为高,平均敏感系数分别为-0.516、0.283和0.266;n为中等,平均敏感系数为0.124;T_min和T_avg为低,平均敏感系数分别为-0.016和-0.003;② 在日尺度,各算法在RH、T_max、U₂和n这4项气象因子为输入时精度较高（RMSE<0.5 mm/day,R²>0.95）,可对ET₀进行精确估算;在月尺度,各算法使用RH、T_max和U₂这3项参数便可对ET₀进行精确估算。SVM和GBDT这2种算法在日尺度和月尺度都有较好的适用性,可在相应尺度下使用较少气象因子替代FAO-56 PM公式对ET₀进行估算。     

Determinants of Adaptation to Climate Change:A Case Study of Rice Farmers in Western Province,Iran

The decisions made by agricultural households to adjust to climate change(CC)in Iran are not well known.This study is intended to investigate the influence of perceptions and socioeconomic,institutional features on farmers’adaptation decisions about CC,which constitute the hypothetical statements of the study.We undertook a survey of 200 farm householders from 31 villages of Ilam Province,situated in the western Iran,as randomly selected.The result discloses that the proposed discriminant model matches the dataset well,with a strong effect size of partial eta-squared(η²=0.38).The analysis further signals that adapters are younger and more welleducated than non-adapters.Adapters are also knowledgeable about CC risks and institutional policy barriers.The adapters have subsidiary work,better access to credit,and have good contacts with expansion agents and specialists.The paper concludes that government authorities should provide farmers with the enriched capabilities and competencies enabling them to adapt to CC.     

Coast sea level and Asian monsoon system a downscaling exercise for Chinese coast

In this study, the authors examined the relationship between monthly sea level data and concurrent large-scale monthly mean sea level pressure and SST data for 1960 to 1990, which are reasonably well simulated by present day climate models; sea level variations due to variations of regional atmospheric forcing and oceanic circulation, are not adequately simulated by a global climate model because of insufficient spatial resolution. The authours applied a statistical “down scaling” strategy to sea level along the Chinese coast. Two interrelated processes were identified: one process is the local wind or wave set-up of water due to Asian monsoon wind anomalies; the other is the rainfall diluting effect in spring. At interdecadal time scale, the later becomes more important and most likely plays a major role in the planetary scale atmosphere-ocean interaction taking place in the eastern North Pacific. Contribution No. 3236 from the Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Key project 39630060 and Project 49476274 supported by NSFC, and also supported by president's fund of Chinese Academy of Sciences.     

强降水的GP分布拟合

根据极值理论中处于重要地位的GP分布模型，讨论了模型中的形状参数、位置参数及尺度参数的算法，并将其用于拟合呈偏斜状态的月和日降水量资料中强降水部分，得到强降水发生的直观年数。     

Analysis of long-term dependence phenomenon in Benue River flow process and its hypothesis testing

In this paper, the long-term dependence phenomenon （the Hurst Effect） which characterizes hydrological and other geophysical times series is studied. The long-term memory is analysed for both daily and monthly streamflow series of the Benue River at Makurdi, Nigeria by using heuristic methods and testing specifically the null hypothesis of short-term memory in the monthly flow series. Results obtained by applying heuristic procedures indicated that there may be the presence of long-term memory component in mean daily flow series but there is no discernible reason to suspect the presence in both average monthly and maximum monthly flow series （extreme event）. Hypothesis testing was conducted by using original and modified versions of rescaled range statistic. When the modified rescaled range, which accounts for short-term memory in the series, is used, the null hypothesis is accepted for both the average monthly and maximum monthly flow series, indicating little or no probable presence of long-term memory in the series. An identical conclusion is also arrived at when second null hypothesis for independence of the monthly flow series is tested. Therefore, apart from the mean daily flow series, there is little evidence of long-term dependence in the Benue River streamflow series at Makurdi. However, considering the limited length of data used, the results are inconclusive.     

黄河中游黄土高原区河川基流特点及变化分析

由于气候变化和人类活动的影响。黄土高原河川基流呈显著下降趋势。对黄河径流量减少产生一定影响。采用日流量过程线切割法计算了河龙区间黄土高原主要支流的基流量。结合地形地貌、水文地质条件，分析了不同地貌类型支流基流的特点，初步分析了影响基流变化的各种因素。认为河龙区间基流变化对黄河水资源影响较大。     

Southern high latitude climate anomalies associated with the Indian Ocean dipole mode

1 INTRODUCTION In southern high latitudes, recent observations have shown a standing mode of ACW (Antarctic Circumpolar Wave) with eastward propagation across the Southern Ocean of the Antarctic in co- varying SST (sea surface temperature) and SLP (sea le…     

Variations in sap flow of Zenia insignis under different rock bareness rate in North Guangdong,China

Understanding the impact of rock bareness on the transpiration in karst plants is essential to karst rocky desertification control and sustainable management of plantation in karst area.This study focused on the variations in sap flow of Zenia insignis caused by different rock bareness rate,and the impact of climate factors,soil water content(SWC)and leaf area index(LAI) on transpiration in karst plants,by continuously measuring sap flux densities (Fcd)of 12 sample trees using thermal dissipation probes and monitoring micrometeorology and SwC on a typical karst hill in north Guangdong of China during the year of 2016.Results show that:(1)the maximum hourly sap flux density occurred at11:00-14:00 and the peak daily sap flux density occurred in September.(2)Sap flow density of Zenia insignis increased with rock bareness rate at all hourly,daily and monthly scales,with the sequence of extremely severeseveremoderatemild rock bareness.(3)The transpiration of Zenia insi.gnis is controlled by different factors at different temporalscales.At hourly scale,transpiration was highly(n=144,R~20.72)correlated to Solar radiation(Rs),Air temperature(Ta),relative humidity(RH),and water vapor pressure deficit(VPD).At daily scale,transpiration was greatly(n=366,R20.31)affected by Solar radiation(Rs),Air temperature(Ta),and water vapor pressure deficit (VPD).While at monthly scale,transpiration was mainly(n=12,R~2=0.85)controlled by LAI.Our study proved that Zenia insi.gnis has a good physiecological adaption to fragile karst environment,and Zenia insignis plantation has long-term sustainability even in extremely rocky landscapes.The results may provide scientific basis for plantation management and ecological restoration in karst area.     

Sensitivity of penman-monteith reference crop evapotranspiration in Tao’er River Basin of northeastern China

A non-dimensional relative sensitivity coefficient was employed to predict the responses of reference crop evapotranspiration （ET0） to perturbation of four climate variables in Tao＇er River Basin of the northeastern China. Mean monthly ET0 and yearly ET0 from 1961 to 2005 were estimated with the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith Equation. A 45-year historical dataset of average monthly maximum/minimum air temperature, mean air temperature, wind speed, sunshine hours and relative humidity from 15 meteorological stations was used in the analysis. Results show that： 1） Sensitivity coefficients of wind speed, air temperature and sunshine hours were positive except for those of air temperature of Arxan Meteorological Station, while those of relative humidity were all negative. Relative humidity was the most sensitive variable in general for the Tao＇er River Basin, followed by sunshine hours, wind speed and air temperature. 2） Similar to climate variable, monthly sensitivity coefficients exhibit large annual fluctuations. 3） Sensitivity coefficients for four climate variables all showed significant trends in seasonal/yearly series. Also, sensitivity coefficients of air temperature, sunshine hours and wind speed all showed significant trends in spring. 4） Among all sensitivity coefficients, the average yearly sensitivity coefficient of relative humidity was highest throughout the basin and showed largest spatial variability. Longitudinal distribution of sensitivity coefficients for air temperature, relative humidity and sunshine hours was also found, which was similar to the distribution of the three climate variables.     

INTERDECADAL SEA LEVEL VARIATION AT THE JAPANESE COAST AND LARGE SCALE CLIMATE STATE

Thirty years of monthly mean anomalies of sea level(SL) at 15 Japanese coastal stations, sea sur-face temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP) in or over the northern Pacific were analyzed bycanonical correlation analysis (CCA) to study the relationship between the interdecadal SL variationand large scale climate state. Given two time-varying fields this technique identifies the pair ofspacial patterns with optimally correlated time series.The results show that there are two important air-sea interactive processes in the extratropicalPacific region for the variation of the SL at the Japanese coast on interdecadal scale. One is theocean heating or cooling of the atmosphere over the Kuroshio extension region, which results in ahuge SLP anomalous vortex with planetary spacial scale big enough to change the global climate. An-other is the large Kuroshio meander phenomenon controlled by the large-scale wind-stress curls oneyear earlier in the adjacent region of the Hawaiian Islands. The first process im