Modeling sprawl of unauthorized development using geospatial technology: case study in Kuantan district,Malaysia

Abstract

The paper explores a framework combining remote sensing and GIS-cellular automata (CA) concepts aimed at improving the modeling of unauthorized land use sprawl. Remote sensing data have been used in urban modeling and analysis, the use of high-resolution remote sensing data in assessing unauthorized development is quite unexplored. This work has demonstrated systematic combination utilization of geospatial analyses tools to acquire a new level of information to enable urban modeling and sprawl analysis in assisting urban sustainable management. In this study, Kuantan city, Malaysia was selected in simulation of the unauthorized land use with CA concept for a period of 15 years (2000–2015), with main input time-series land use observation from 1995 to 2005. The 2000 and 2005 land use input was also used as calibrated and test assessment of the simulation. The results show excellent agreement between in-situ changes of the unauthorized land use classes and the corresponding simulated classes within the same periods. In conclusion, CA model can lead to new levels of understanding of how urban areas grow and change as in view of digital earth aspiration.     

Characterization and spatial modeling of urban sprawl in the Wuhan Metropolitan Area,China

Urban sprawl has led to environmental problems and large losses of arable land in China. In this study, we monitor and model urban sprawl by means of a combination of remote sensing, geographical information system and spatial statistics. We use time-series data to explore the potential socio-economic driving forces behind urban sprawl, and spatial models in different scenarios to explore the spatio-temporal interactions. The methodology is applied to the city of Wuhan, China, for the period from 1990 to 2013. The results reveal that the built-up land has expanded and has dispersed in urban clusters. Population growth, and economic and transportation development are still the main causes of urban sprawl; however, when they have developed to certain levels, the area affected by construction in urban areas (Jian Cheng Qu (JCQ)) and the area of cultivated land (ACL) tend to be stable. Spatial regression models are shown to be superior to the traditional models. The interaction among districts with the same administrative status is stronger than if one of those neighbors is in the city center and the other in the suburban area. The expansion of urban built-up land is driven by the socio-economic development at the same period, and greatly influenced by its spatio-temporal neighbors. We conclude that the integration of remote sensing, a geographical information system, and spatial statistics offers an excellent opportunity to explore the spatio-temporal variation and interactions among the districts in the sprawling metropolitan areas. Relevant regulations to control the urban sprawl process are suggested accordingly.     

Analyzing Urban Sprawl in Rethymno,Greece

Analysis of urban sprawl is an issue that has been continuously attracting attention in the planning and research community. Τhis paper presents the results of an analysis of the growth of the city of Rethymno during the 1997–2010 time period. Rethymno is a city in the island of Crete in Greece with population of about 35,000 people, in which developed land has expanded at a rate that is double the growth of the population during the study period. A qualitative analysis was first performed to identify growth patterns in the different parts of the city, how these are related to planning regulations and the extent of cohesiveness of the development. A logistic regression model was estimated using various variables influencing the expansion of the built up area. Variables such as slope, distance from main roads, distance from the University, distance from coastline, as well as variables describing the proximity to other developed areas were used as independent variables in the logistic regressions. Planning constraints with respect zoning were also considered. The accuracy/goodness of fit of the simulation results were also tested using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. The results revealed high (performance) accuracy, which can support the applicability of the proposed method in urban sprawl modeling. Once the equations were estimated they were applied using data from 2010 to identify future trends of urbanization. The methodology adopted in this study can result in a tool that can be of use to urban planning authorities in identifying areas of future urban growth and therefore, adopt zoning policies encouraging or discouraging growth in these areas according to the sustainability objectives of the local community.     

Incorporating sprawl and adjacency measures in land‐use forecasting model: A case study of Collin County,TX

Sprawl measures have largely been neglected in land‐use forecasting models. The current approach for land‐use allocation using optimization mostly utilizes objective functions and constraints that are non‐spatial in nature. Application of spatial constraints could take care of the contiguity and compactness of land uses and can be utilized to address urban sprawl. Because a land‐use model is used as an input to transportation modeling, a better spatial allocation strategy for more compact land‐use projections will promote better transportation planning and sustainable development. This study formulates a scenario‐based approach to normative modeling of urban sprawl. In doing so, it seeks to improve the land‐use projections by employing a spatial optimization model with contiguity and compactness consideration. This study incorporates urban sprawl measures based on smart growth principles together with a mixed‐use factor, and adjacency consideration of nearby land uses. The objective function used in the study maximizes net suitability based on imposed constraints. These constraints are based on smart growth principles that enhance walkability in neighborhoods, promote better health for residents, and encourage mixed‐use development. The formulated model has been applied to Collin County, TX, a fast‐developing suburban county located to the north of the Dallas–Fort Worth metroplex. The suitability of land cells indicates the probability of conversion, which is calculated using spatial discrete choice analysis with Moran eigenvector spatial filtering for vacant cells at a resolution of 150 × 150 m employing factors of the built environment, and socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. This study demonstrates how spatial proximity between land uses, which has been ignored to date, can be used to control sprawl, resulting in better mixing of different land uses based on constraints imposed in a spatial optimization problem.     

Calibration of cellular automata models using differential evolution to simulate present and future land use

A key issue in cellular automata (CA) modeling is the minimization of the differences between the actual and simulated patterns, which can be mathematically formulated as an objective function. We develop a new hybrid model (termed DE‐CA) by integrating differential evolution (DE) into CA to solve the objective function and retrieve the optimal CA parameters. Constrained relations among factors were applied in DE to generate different sets of CA parameters for prediction of future scenarios. The DE‐CA model was calibrated using historical spatial data to simulate 2016 land use in Kunming and predict multiple scenarios to the year 2026. Assessment of quantitative accuracy shows that DE‐CA yields 92.4% overall accuracy, where 6.8% is the correctly captured urban growth; further, the model reported only 5.0% false alarms and 2.6% misses. Regarding the simulation ability, our new CA model performs as well as the widely applied genetic algorithm‐based CA model, and outperforms both the logistic regression‐based CA model and a no‐change NULL model. We projected three possible scenarios for the year 2026 using DE‐CA to adequately address the baseline urban growth, environmental protection and urban planning to show the strong prediction ability of the new model.     

Urban Sprawl Analysis of Tripoli Metropolitan City (Libya) Using Remote Sensing Data and Multivariate Logistic Regression Model

The main objective of this paper is to analyze urban sprawl in the metropolitan city of Tripoli, Libya. Logistic regression model is used in modeling urban expansion patterns, and in investigating the relationship between urban sprawl and various driving forces. The 11 factors that influence urban sprawl occurrence used in this research are the distances to main active economic centers, to a central business district, to the nearest urbanized area, to educational area, to roads, and to urbanized areas; easting and northing coordinates; slope; restricted area; and population density. These factors were extracted from various existing maps and remotely sensed data. Subsequently, logistic regression coefficient of each factor is computed in the calibration phase using data from 1984 to 2002. Additionally, data from 2002 to 2010 were used in the validation. The validation of the logistic regression model was conducted using the relative operating characteristic (ROC) method. The validation result indicated 0.86 accuracy rate. Finally, the urban sprawl probability map was generated to estimate six scenarios of urban patterns for 2020 and 2025. The results indicated that the logistic regression model is effective in explaining urban expansion driving factors, their behaviors, and urban pattern formation. The logistic regression model has limitations in temporal dynamic analysis used in urban analysis studies. Thus, an integration of the logistic regression model with estimation and allocation techniques can be used to estimate and to locate urban land demands for a deeper understanding of future urban patterns.     

Urban land use mapping and zoning of Bombay Metropolitan Region using remote sensing data

Bombay Metropolitan Region covering an area of about 4,360 sq. km. was selected for urban land use studies and for urban land use zoning. Urban land use mapping was carried out using SPOT multispectral linear array imagery on 1∶25,000 scale employing visual analysis tehcniques. Fifteen maps were prepared depicting the spatial distribution of various urban classes in the Greater Bombay and New Bombay regions. Sixteen urban land use maps were also prepared using Landsat TM data showing the distribution of land use pattern on 1∶50,000 scale for the entire metropolitan region. Urban land use zoning was carried out based upon suitability index on 1∶250,000 scale. This map provides information on the areas to be used for construction and areas to be kept under green belt in the metropolitan region. This study is a joint venture of Space Applications Centre with Bombay Metropolitan Development authority.     

Assessment of Land use/land cover Change in the North-West District of Delhi Using Remote Sensing and GIS Techniques

Land is one of the prime natural resources. A city grows not only by population but also by changes in spatial dimensions. Urban population growth and urban sprawl induced land use changes and land transformation. The land transformation is a natural process and cannot be stopped but it can be regulated. Many geographical changes at the urban periphery are associated with the transfer of land from rural to urban purpose. There is an urgent need for fast growing areas like Delhi, which can be easily done by high-resolution remote sensing data. Land use/land cover of North West of Delhi has been analyzed for the time period of 1972?C2003. The remote sensing data used in study is Aster image of 2003 with a spatial resolution of 15?m and other data of 1972 Survey of India (SOI) toposheet at the scale of 1:50,000. Supervised digital classification using maximum likelihood classifier was applied for preparing land use/land cover. A change detection model was applied in ERDAS Imagine to find out the land use/land cover during 1972 to 2003. Eight land use classes was identified but main dominated classes were built up and agricultural land. A drastic change has been recorded during 30 years of time i. e. (1972-2003). In 1972, 92.06% of the land was under agricultural practice, which reduced to 64.71% in 2003. This shows 27.35% decrease in agricultural land in three decades. On the other hand built up area was 6.31% in 1972, which increased to 34% in 2003. One of the main cause of this land use change is the population growth due to the migration in the district from small cities and rural areas of Delhi.     

Enhancing a GIS Cellular Automata Model of Land Use Change: Bayesian Networks, Influence Diagrams and Causality

Cellular Automata (CA) models at present do not adequately take into account the relationship and interactions between variables. However, land use change is influenced by multiple variables and their relationships. The objective of this study is to develop a novel CA model within a geographic information system (GIS) that consists of Bayesian Network (BN) and Influence Diagram (ID) sub‐models. Further, the proposed model is intended to simplify the definition of parameter values, transition rules and model structure. Multiple GIS layers provide inputs and the CA defines the transition rules by running the two sub‐models. In the BN sub‐model, land use drivers are encoded with conditional probabilities extracted from historical data to represent inter‐dependencies between the drivers. Using the ID sub‐model, the decision of changing from one land use state to another is made based on utility theory. The model was applied to simulate future land use changes in the Greater Vancouver Regional District (GVRD), Canada from 2001 to 2031. The results indicate that the model is able to detect spatio‐temporal drivers and generate various scenarios of land use change making it a useful tool for exploring complex planning scenarios.     

Assessing the effect of temporal dynamics on urban growth simulation: Towards an asynchronous cellular automata

Time is a fundamental dimension in urban dynamics, but the effect of various definitions of time on urban growth models has rarely been evaluated. In urban growth models such as cellular automata (CA), time has typically been defined as a sequence of discrete time steps. However, most urban growth processes such as land‐use changes are asynchronous. The aim of this study is to examine the effect of various temporal dynamics scenarios on urban growth simulation, in terms of urban land‐use planning, and to introduce an asynchronous parcel‐based cellular automata (AParCA) model. In this study, eight different scenarios were generated to investigate the impact of temporal dynamics on CA‐based urban growth models, and their outputs were evaluated using various urban planning indicators. The obtained results show that different degrees of temporal dynamics lead to various patterns appearing in urban growth CA models, and the application of asynchronous (event‐driven) CA models achieves better simulation results than synchronous models.     

A Patch‐based Cellular Automaton for Simulating Land‐use Changes at Fine Spatial Resolution

While cellular automata have become popular tools for modeling land‐use changes, there is a lack of studies reporting their application at very fine spatial resolutions (e.g. 5 m resolution). Traditional cell‐based CA do not generate reliable results at such resolutions because single cells might only represent components of land‐use entities (i.e. houses or parks in urban residential areas), while recently proposed entity‐based CA models usually ignore the internal heterogeneity of the entities. This article describes a patch‐based CA model designed to deal with this problem by integrating cell and object concepts. A patch is defined as a collection of adjacent cells that might have different attributes, but that represent a single land‐use entity. In this model, a transition probability map was calculated at each cell location for each land‐use transition using a weight of evidence method; then, land‐use changes were simulated by employing a patch‐based procedure based on the probability maps. This CA model, along with a traditional cell‐based model were tested in the eastern part of the Elbow River watershed in southern Alberta, Canada, an area that is under considerable pressure for land development due to its proximity to the fast growing city of Calgary. The simulation results for the two models were compared to historical data using visual comparison, K_simulation indices, and landscape metrics. The results reveal that the patch‐based CA model generates more compact and realistic land‐use patterns than the traditional cell‐based CA. The K_simulation values indicate that the land‐use maps obtained with the patch‐based CA are in higher agreement with the historical data than those created by the cell‐based model, particularly regarding the location of change. The landscape metrics reveal that the patch‐based model is able to adequately capture the land‐use dynamics as observed in the historical data, while the cell‐based CA is not able to provide a similar interpretation. The patch‐based approach proposed in this study appears to be a simple and valuable solution to take into account the internal heterogeneity of land‐use classes at fine spatial resolutions and simulate their transitions over time.     

2013年1月中国大面积雾霾事件直接社会经济损失评估

雾霾污染已经成为中国乃至全球重点关注的生态环境问题之一。与此同时,中国的雾霾污染与城市蔓延在某种程度上相伴而生。城市蔓延是否加剧了中国的雾霾污染目前还没有明确的答案。因此,利用美国国家极地轨道合作卫星搭载的可见光红外成像辐射仪(national polar‐orbiting partnership's visible infrared imaging radiometer suite, NPP-VIIRS) 获取的夜间灯光数据,在量化城市蔓延的基础上构建面板数据模型,探究城市蔓延是否会对城市雾霾污染产生影响,并利用中介效应模型验证城市蔓延影响雾霾污染的驱动机制。研究结果表明, 夜间灯光数据可以有效地量化与表征城市蔓延,且中国的城市蔓延在一定程度上加剧了雾霾污染。此外,城市蔓延主要通过集聚效应、土地城镇化效应、产业结构效应等途径影响雾霾污染。     

Multiple intra-urban land use simulations and driving factors analysis: a case study in Huicheng,China

Simulations of intra-urban land use changes have gradually attracted more attention as these approaches are extremely helpful in regard to decision making and policy formulation. While prior studies mostly focused on methods of developing intra-urban level simulations, very little research has been conducted explain the factors driving intra-urban land use change. Urban planners are highly concerned with how inner-city structures are formed and how they function. Here, to simulate multiple intra-urban land use changes and to identify the contribution of different driving factors, we developed a random forests (RF) algorithm-based cellular automata (CA) simulation model. In this study, the model applied diverse categories of spatial variables, including traffic location factors, environmental factors, public services, and population density, as the driving factors to enhance our understanding of the dynamics of internal urban land use. The CA model was tested using data from the Huicheng district of Huizhou city in the Guangdong province of China. The Model was validated using actual historical land use data from 2000 to 2010. By applying the validated model, multiple intra-urban land use maps were simulated for 2015. Simultaneously, spatial variable importance measures (VIMs) were calculated by using the out-of-bag (OOB) error estimation approach of the RF algorithm. Based on the calculation results, we assessed and analysed the significance of each intra-urban land use driver for this region. This study provides urban planners and relevant scholars with detailed and targeted information that can aid in the formulation of specific planning strategies for different intra-urban land uses and support the future evolution of this area.     

Modelling coastal land use change by incorporating spatial autocorrelation into cellular automata models

This paper presents a spatial autoregressive (SAR) method-based cellular automata (termed SAR-CA) model to simulate coastal land use change, by incorporating spatial autocorrelation into transition rules. The model captures the spatial relationships between explained and explanatory variables and then integrates them into CA transition rules. A conventional CA model (LogCA) based on logistic regression (LR) was studied as a comparison. These two CA models were applied to simulate urban land use change of coastal regions in Ningbo of China from 2000 to 2015. Compared to the LR method, the SAR model yielded smaller accumulated residuals that showed a random distribution in fitting the CA transition rules. The better-fitting SAR model performed well in simulating urban land use change and scored an overall accuracy of 85.3%, improving on the LogCA model by 3.6%. Landscape metrics showed that the pattern generated by the SAR-CA model has less difference with the observed pattern.     

Development of a GIS-based decision support system for assessing land use status

The objectives of this study are to assess land suitability and to predict the spatial and temporal changes in land use types (LUTs) by using GIS-based land use management decision support system. A GIS database with data on climate, topography, soil characteristic, irrigation condition, fertilizer application, and special socioeconomic activities has been developed and used for the evaluation of land productivity for different crops by integrating with a crop growth model—the erosion productivity impact calculator (EPIC). International food policy simulation model (IFPSIM) is also embedded into GIS for the predictions of how crop demands and crop market prices will change under alternative policy scenarios. An inference engine (IE) including land use choice model is developed to illustrate land use choice behavior based on logit models, which allows to analyze how diversified factors ranging from climate changes, crop price changes to land management changes can effect the distribution of agricultural land use. A test for integrated simulation is taken in each 0.1o by 0.1o grid cell to predict the change of agricultural land use types at global level. Global land use changes are simulated from 1992 to 2050.     

Urban land use mapping: A case study of ahmedabad city and its environs

Proper urban planning and effective implementation requires reliable urban land use statistics. In this context, satellite remote sensing data has been studied using both visual and digital techniques. A portable eight-band radiometer has been used to collect spectral signatures of surface features present in Ahmedabad city and its environs. Using these signatures a suitable approach employing visual and digital techniques has been developed for urban land use/sprawl mapping. Urban land-use maps of Ahmedabad city and its environs were prepared on 1:25,000 scale and for Ahmedabad Urban Development Authority Area on 1:50,000 scale using this methodology. It has been found that edge-enhancement techniques are useful to enhance the contrast among different urban land uses. Classification techniques such as MXL and Bayes classifiers are not successful in discriminating urban land uses. Tonal characteristics alongwith other elements of interpretation are required to classify urban land uses such as residential, industrial etc. Spatial distribution of various urban and uses and the space devoted to each urban land use has been brought out.     

Cellular Automata Based Model of Urban Spatial Growth

In the study reported in this paper an attempt has been made to develop a Cellular Automata (CA) model for simulating future urban growth of an Indian city. In the model remote sensing data and GIS were used to provide the empirical data about urban growth while Markov chain process was used to predict the amount of land required for future urban use based on the empirical data. Multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) technique was used to reveal the relationships between future urban growth potential and site attributes of a site. Finally using the CA model, land for future urban development was spatially allocated based on the urban suitability image provided by MCE, neighbourhood information of a site and the amount of land predicted by Markov chain process. The model results were evaluated using Kappa Coefficient and future urban growth was simulated using the calibrated model     

Development of a GIS-based decision support system for assessing land use status

IntroductionAgriculturallandusepatternsandtheirchangesaretightlyrelatedwithagriculturepolicyandfoodsecurityissuesundergrowingfooddemand,assess mentofglobalclimatechangeimpactsonagricul ture,environmentalissuesduetotheintensificationofagriculturallandusessuchaswaterpollution,soildegradation,andrecentlywaterscarcityissues.Soasustainableandholisticplanningandmanage mentoflandresourcesshouldcombineallthesere latedinformationwithefficienttoolsforassessmentandevaluationinordertopermitbroad ,interact…     

土地利用变化反事实情景模拟与评价——以湖北省嘉鱼县为例

引入了反事实情景模拟方法来模拟土地利用变化的历史,通过重构土地利用变化历史情景来辅助评价土地利用政策实施效果。以我国的耕地保护政策对粮食安全和城市扩张影响为例,构建耕地保护政策干预下的事实情景和假设无耕地保护政策影响的反事实情景,并借助CLUE-S模型进行土地利用变化情景模拟。通过比较两种模拟结果在耕地数量、产能、空间分布以及城市建设用地数量、效益和空间扩张的差异,实现对耕地保护政策实施效果的评价。实例研究表明,现行的耕地保护政策在遏制耕地流失、提高粮食产量、调整耕地及建设用地空间布局等方面取得了积极效果。     

Simulation of landscape spatial layout evolution in rural-urban fringe areas: a case study of Ganjingzi District

In recent years, the rapid expansion of urban spaces has accelerated the mutual evolution of landscape types. Analyzing and simulating spatio-temporal dynamic features of urban landscape can help to reveal its driving mechanisms and facilitate reasonable planning of urban land resources. The purpose of this study was to design a hybrid cellular automata model to simulate dynamic change in urban landscapes. The model consists of four parts: a geospatial partition, a Markov chain (MC), a multi-layer perceptron artificial neural network (MLP-ANN), and cellular automata (CA). This study employed multivariate land use data for the period 2000–2015 to conduct spatial clustering for the Ganjingzi District and to simulate landscape status evolution via a divisional composite cellular automaton model. During the period of 2000–2015, construction land and forest land areas in Ganjingzi District increased by 19.43% and 15.19%, respectively, whereas farmland, garden lands, and other land areas decreased by 43.42%, 52.14%, and 75.97%, respectively. Land use conversion potentials in different sub-regions show different characteristics in space. The overall land-change prediction accuracy for the subarea-composite model is 3% higher than that of the non-partitioned model, and misses are reduced by 3.1%. Therefore, by integrating geospatial zoning and the MLP-ANN hybrid method, the land type conversion rules of different zonings can be obtained, allowing for more effective simulations of future urban land use change. The hybrid cellular automata model developed here will provide a reference for urban planning and policy formulation.