基于人工蜂群CA模型的南京市土地利用变化模拟与预测

以南京市为例,构建人工蜂群元胞自动机（CA_ABC）模型,对2000—2007年的土地利用变化进行模拟以实现CA_ABC模型的校正,并以2007—2015年的土地利用变化为案例,验证该模型的有效性。模拟结果总体精度（OA）2007年为87.79%,2015年为80.61%;模拟结果的品质因数（FOM）2007年为21.23%,2015年为19.25%。基于CA_ABC模型和马尔可夫链预测未来城市土地总量,对南京市2025和2035年的土地利用格局进行了预测,对城市扩张和生态用地被侵占现象进行分析。模型预测结果表明,未来20年的城市扩张主要以牺牲耕地和林地为代价,2025和2035年80%的城市扩张面积来源于对耕地面积的侵占,17%的城市面积扩张是由2015年的林地转换得到的。研究表明,准确模拟、预测未来城市格局及评估城市扩张能够对生态用地侵占,以及为决策者合理规划城市、推动城市可持续发展提供帮助。     

Development of National Database on Long-term Deforestation in Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka is one of the biodiversity hotspots of the world. This study has utilized satellite remote sensing and GIS techniques to generate a nation-wide database on forests, forest types and land use/land cover of Sri Lanka. Spatial assessment of forest cover changes was carried out for the periods 1976–1985, 1985–1994, 1994–2005 and 2005–2014. The landscape fragmentation analysis has carried out to calculate the spatial and temporal patterns of forest. Land use/land cover map was prepared representing seven classes in 2014. The plantations occupy a large area (34.2%) followed by forests (33.4%) and agriculture (26.1%) in 2014. During the period of 1976–2014, the forest has been decreased by 5.5%. From 1976 to 1985 forest recorded a loss at an annual rate of 0.49%. This annual rate decreased to 0.01% during 2005–2014 indicates declining trend of deforestation and effective conservation measures. The study found deforestation hotspots in south east and northern most parts of the Sri Lanka. Total number of patches estimated has increased from 15193 in 1976 to 16136 in 2014. The study has found that main causes of deforestation in Sri Lanka were due to expansion of agriculture and plantations. The extent of change detected in the study through geospatial techniques has significance to the forest ecology and management of natural landscapes in Sri Lanka.     

Application of GIS for land-use/land-cover change analysis in a mountainous terrain

Integration of remote sensing data with other spatial/non-spatial data was carried out using ARC/INFO software package. A simple classification technique was adopted for land cover/land-use change analyses in relation to elevation, slope, aspect and bio-climatic classes. Suitability assessment of land where agricultural extension occurred between 1963 and 1993 was made using GIS software package. Expansion of agriculture and was found to be maximum in 2200-2400 m elevation zone and 20–30° slope classes. When topographic aspects were considered expansion was maximum on south east and west facing slopes. The loss of vegetal cover is estimated to be 15 per cent between 1963–1993. However regeneration of forest was found to be maximum in elevation ranges of 1600–2000 metre and mostly having 20–30° average slope, Land deterioration over the two mapping periods was identified and strategies were suggested to mitigate the problem.     

Assessment of the three factors affecting Myanmar's forest cover change using Landsat and MODIS vegetation continuous fields data

Long-term observation of the earth is essential for studying the factors affecting global environmental changes. Digital earth technology can facilitate the monitoring of global environmental change with its ability to process vast amounts of information. In this study, we map the forest cover change of Myanmar from 2000 to 2005 using a training data automation procedure and support vector machines algorithm. Our results show that Myanmar's forests have declined 0.68% annually over this six-year period. We validated our derived change results and found the overall accuracy to be greater than 88%. We also assessed forest loss from protected areas, areas close to roads, and areas subject to fire, which were most likely to lose forested area. The results revealed the main reasons for forest losses in some hotspots to be increased agricultural conversion, fire, and the construction of highways. This information is useful for identifying the driving forces behind forest changes and to support environmental policy development in Myanmar.     

Forest cover monitoring using remote sensing and GIS — A case study in Dhaulkhand range of Rajaji National Park,Uttar pradesh

Rajaji National Park in U.P. is a protected area where large number of nomad population live within the park area. Their dependence on the forest for cattle rearing and firewood has caused degradation of the forests. Proximity to settlements outside the park further adds to the problems. In the present study, forest cover and river, bed changes have been attempted by using temporal aerospace data of the year 1960 and 1993. Subsequently, PAMAP GIS package has been used for the change detection analysis. The study indicates that the land cover changes are mainly due to biotic factors. Some of the important changes in forest cover are: (i) transformation of mixed forest to scrub forest in 67 ha (ii) the sal mixed and mixed sal forest categories have replaced sal forest in 262 ha (iii) significant increase in forest plantation i.e. 2075 ha in the year 1960 to 3793 ha in 1993 (iv) eighteen times increase in Chirpine area, it increased from 13 ha in 1960 to 230 ha in 1993. The land cover changes in 6663 ha (45%) out of 14962 ha of the study area. The consequential changes in the river beds due to the change in the forest cover was also analyzed. During this period river beds with boulders have increased by 87 ha. These river bed changes include lengthening and broadening of river and change in river course.     

Landuse/land cover mapping and change detection using satellite data — a case study of dehlon block, district Ludhiana, Punjab

The land use information collected for Dehlon block of Ludhiana district, Punjab from the analysis of the IRS-1B LISS-II data for the year 1993 and IRS PAN data for the year 1997 and SOI topographical maps for 1964 revealed a large change in the area of different land use categories during the period from 1964 to 1997. The agricultural land covering an area of about 94.14 per cent in 1964 reduced to 90.26 per cent in 1997. while the area under rural settlements increased from 312 ha in 1964 to 1162 ha in 1997. An extra area of about 169 ha under waste land was added during the period under study making total waste land area to about 400 ha in 1997. However, the block lacks the forest cover of the required limit. Considerable change in living environment was observed in the block. Number of persons per unit settlement area (ha) being 213.3 in 1964 reduced to 97.1 in 1991; it indicate that the living standard of the people of the block has improved with the changed cropping pattern and increased agricultural production during the period from 1964 to 1991.     

Time-series analysis of multi-resolution optical imagery for quantifying forest cover loss in Sumatra and Kalimantan,Indonesia

Monitoring loss of humid tropical forests via remotely sensed imagery is critical for a number of environmental monitoring objectives, including carbon accounting, biodiversity, and climate modeling science applications. Landsat imagery, provided free of charge by the U.S. Geological Survey Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science (USGS/EROS), enables consistent and timely forest cover loss updates from regional to biome scales. The Indonesian islands of Sumatra and Kalimantan are a center of significant forest cover change within the humid tropics with implications for carbon dynamics, biodiversity maintenance and local livelihoods. Sumatra and Kalimantan feature poor observational coverage compared to other centers of humid tropical forest change, such as Mato Grosso, Brazil, due to the lack of ongoing acquisitions from nearby ground stations and the persistence of cloud cover obscuring the land surface. At the same time, forest change in Indonesia is transient and does not always result in deforestation, as cleared forests are rapidly replaced by timber plantations and oil palm estates. Epochal composites, where single best observations are selected over a given time interval and used to quantify change, are one option for monitoring forest change in cloudy regions. However, the frequency of forest cover change in Indonesia confounds the ability of image composite pairs to quantify all change. Transient change occurring between composite periods is often missed and the length of time required for creating a cloud-free composite often obscures change occurring within the composite period itself. In this paper, we analyzed all Landsat 7 imagery with <50% cloud cover and data and products from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to quantify forest cover loss for Sumatra and Kalimantan from 2000 to 2005. We demonstrated that time-series approaches examining all good land observations are more accurate in mapping forest cover change in Indonesia than change maps based on image composites. Unlike other time-series analyses employing observations with a consistent periodicity, our study area was characterized by highly unequal observation counts and frequencies due to persistent cloud cover, scan line corrector off (SLC-off) gaps, and the absence of a complete archive. Our method accounts for this variation by generating a generic variable space. We evaluated our results against an independent probability sample-based estimate of gross forest cover loss and expert mapped gross forest cover loss at 64 sample sites. The mapped gross forest cover loss for Sumatra and Kalimantan was 2.86% of the land area, or 2.86 Mha from 2000 to 2005, with the highest concentration having occurred in Riau and Kalimantan Tengah provinces.     

热带森林植被的动态变化遥感监测

本文讨论了以热带森林植被为主体的再生资源的面积动态变化监测。研究中包括两个部分。首先,我们利用多时相遥感图像对大面积的西双版纳州进行地类判读,系统地分析了森林植被的动态变化。其次,利用Landsat MSS和TM数据对自然保护区的动态变化进行了包含无监督分类和归一化差值植被指数分析的数字图像处理,变化分类也相当符合实际。总的实验结果表明,这种监测方法是很有效的,可在再生资源监测中特别是在森林植被监测中加以推广应用。     

Utilization of Landsat data to quantify land-use and land-cover changes related to oil and gas activities in West-Central Alberta from 2005 to 2013

Land use and land cover (LULC) change detection associated with oil and gas activities plays an important role in effective sustainable management practices, compliance monitoring, and reclamation assessment. In this study, a mapping methodology is presented for quantifying pre- and post-disturbance LULC types with annual Landsat Best-Available-Pixel multispectral data from 2005 to 2013. Annual LULC and land disturbance maps were produced for one of the major conventional oil and gas production areas in West-Central Alberta with an accuracy of 78% and 87%, respectively. The highest rate of vegetation loss (178 km²/year) was observed in coniferous forest compared to broadleaf forest, mixed forest, and native vegetation. Integration of ancillary oil and gas geospatial data with annual land disturbances indicated that less than 20% of the total land disturbances were attributable to oil and gas activities. In 2013, approximately 44% of oil and gas disturbances from 2005 to 2013 showed evidence of vegetation recovery. In the future, geospatial data related to wildfire, logging activities, insect defoliation, and other natural and anthropogenic factors can be integrated to quantify other causes of land disturbances.     

A longitudinal study of malaria associated with deforestation in Sonitpur district of Assam,India

Assam–Arunachal forest fringed foothill area is endemic for malaria incidence. The present study deals with the temporal analysis of malaria incidence and determines its association with deforestation in 24 villages along the Assam–Arunachal forest fringed foothill area of Sonitpur district of Assam. Malaria epidemiological survey has been carried out in the study area from the year 1994 to 2005. Remote sensing (RS) technique has been used to map the areas of forest changes from the year 2000 to 2005. Geographical information system (GIS) was used to map the malaria incidence and forest cover. The study villages are endemic to malaria infections and there was increasing trend of malaria incidence over the years. The slide positivity rate (SPR) ranged from 5.1% in 1997 to 44.4% in 2005. The percentage forest cover decreased significantly from 23.6% during 2000 to 15.4% during 2005, whereas SPR was increased during 2000–2005. The present study is the first attempt to understand the role of deforestation in malaria incidence using RS and GIS in the north-eastern region of India at a micro-geographic level. The study suggests that the area is endemic to malaria transmission. The decrease in forest cover is a serious ecological concern besides its role in elevating the malaria incidence in the study area.     

ASTER和TM/ETM+遥感数据融合监测土地覆盖变化

在人们纷纷选择IKONOS、QUICKBIRD、SPOT-5等高分辨率影像监测土地利用/覆盖变化之际,以北京海淀区为例,尝试采用Brovey变换和主成分分析(PCA)法融合ASTER、TM/ETM+中等分辨率影像,充分利用ASTER、TM/ETM+数据的多光谱和较高空间分辨率特性,挖掘其在土地覆盖变化监测中的潜力,为大规模监测土地利用/覆盖变化提供科学参考。研究将2003年ASTER多光谱3N、2、1波段与1999年ETM+PAN波段进行Brovey变换;1992年TM543与1999年ETM+PAN波段进行PCA融合,快速发现土地覆盖变化信息。经验证,变化发现精度达92.50%,符合项目精度要求。试验表明:在缺乏高分辨率影像的地区,选择价格相对便宜的AS-TER和TM/ETM+数据,采用Brovey变换和主成分分析(PCA)法进行融合,可有效监测土地覆盖变化,节约动态监测成本,二者具有很大的应用价值,值得推广。     

Assessing land-use and carbon stock in slash-and-burn ecosystems in tropical mountain of Laos based on time-series satellite images

In the tropical mountains of Southeast Asia, slash-and-burn (S/B) agriculture is a widely practiced and important food production system. The ecosystem carbon stock in this land-use is linked not only to the carbon exchange with the atmosphere but also with food and resource security. The objective of this study was to provide quantitative information on the land-use and ecosystem carbon stock in the region as well as to infer the impacts of alternative land-use and ecosystem management scenarios on the carbon sequestration potential at a regional scale. The study area was selected in a typical slash-and-burn region in the northern part of Laos. The chrono-sequential changes of land-use such as the relative areas of community age and cropping (C) + fallow (F) patterns were derived from the analysis of time-series satellite images. The chrono-sequential analysis showed that a consistent increase of S/B area during the past three decades and a rapid increase after 1990. Approximately 37% of the whole area was with the community age of 1–5 years, whereas 10% for 6–10 years in 2004. The ecosystem carbon stock at a regional scale was estimated by synthesizing the land-use patterns and semi-empirical carbon stock model derived from in situ measurements where the community age was used as a clue to the linkage. The ecosystem carbon stock in the region was strongly affected by the land-use patterns; the temporal average of carbon stock in 1C + 10F cycles, for example, was greater by 33 MgC ha⁻¹ compared to that in 1C + 2F land-use pattern. The amount of carbon lost from the regional ecosystems during 1990–2004 periods was estimated to be 42 MgC ha⁻¹. The study approach proved to be useful especially in such regions with low data-availability and accessibility. This study revealed the dynamic change of land-use and ecosystem carbon stock in the tropical mountain of Laos as affected by land-use. Results suggest the significant potential of carbon sequestration through changing land-use and ecosystem management scenarios. These quantitative estimates would be useful to better understand and manage the land-use and ecosystem carbon stock towards higher sustainability and food security in similar ecosystems.     

冲击指标应用于保安林地人为冲击之研究

保安林分布遍及全台湾省，但在自然与社会环境的变迁下，民众对土地资源需求日益迫切，区外保安林常遭非法使用，因此如何有效地订定经营决策，为经营者应注视之问题。本研究以垦丁公园辖区之区外保安林为研究范围，利用1993与2001年SPOT卫星遥测影像为材料，并用监督性分类法中之最大概似法进行影像分类，建立都市、森林、农耕地等3种土地利用类型，分类结果提供监测1993至2001年间保安林之土地变迁。此外保安林地受人为之冲击评估乃采用分类之结果与地理信息系统之空间分析技术，配合保安林地之开发地成长率、农耕地开垦率及保安林地受人为潜在开发率等冲击指标，评估垦丁公园境内各编号保安林所受到的人为冲击。研究结果显示，共有8处保安林所受之冲击最为严重，值得管理者加以重视。     

Monitoring vegetation dynamics in East Rennell Island World Heritage Site using multi-sensor and multi-temporal remote sensing data

ABSTRACT

East Rennell of Solomon Island is the first natural site under customary law to be inscribed on UNESCO’s World Heritage List. Potential threats due to logging, mining and agriculture led to the site being declared a World Heritage in Danger in 2013. For East Rennell World Heritage Site (ERWHS) to ‘shed’ its ‘Danger’ status the management must monitor forest cover both within and outside of ERWHS. We used satellite data from multiple sources to track forest cover changes for the entire East Rennell island since 1998. 95% of the island is still covered by undisturbed forests; annual average normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) for the whole island was above 0.91 in 2015. However, vegetation cover in the island has been slowly decreasing, at a rate of –0.0011 NDVI per year between 2000 and 2015. This decrease less pronounced inside ERWHS compared to areas outside. While potential threats due to forest clearing outside ERWHS remain the forest cover change from 2000 to 2015 has been below 15%. We suggest ways in which the Government of Solomon Islands could use our data as well as unmanned air vehicles and field surveys to monitor forest cover change and ensure the future conservation of ERWHS.     

Global and local indicators of spatial association between points and polygons: A study of land use change

The existing indicators related to spatial association, especially the K function, can measure only the same dimension of vector data, such as points, lines and polygons, respectively. We develop four new indicators that can analyze and model spatial association for the mixture of different dimensions of vector data, such as lines and points, points and polygons, lines and polygons. The four indicators can measure the spatial association between points and polygons from both global and local perspectives. We also apply the presented methods to investigate the association of temples and villages on land-use change at multiple distance scales in the Guoluo Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture in Qinghai Province, PR China. Global indicators show that temples are positively associated with land-use change at large spatial distances (e.g., >6000 m), while the association between villages and land-use change is insignificant at all distance scales. Thus temples, as religious and cultural centers, have a stronger association with land-use change than the places where people live. However, local indicators show that these associations vary significantly in different sub-areas of the study region. Furthermore, the association of temples with land-use change is also dependent on the specific type of land-use change. The case study demonstrates that the presented indicators are powerful tools for analyzing the spatial association between points and polygons.     

Modeling for Prediction of Land Cover Changes Based on Bio-physical and Human Factors in Zagros Mountains, Iran

The rapid population growth and ongoing development activities has resulted in natural resources demolition. However, the dynamics of the natural resources in relation to different biophysical and socio-economic factors are still remains poorly understood. The present study investigates the basic natural resources i.e. forest, rangeland and surface water bodies’ status using satellite data for the years 1990, 1998, and 2006, and their change detection in relation to biophysical and socio-economic factors. Monitoring land-use/cover change detection using remotely sensed data has been a well recognized technique. The analysis of change detection revealed eleven important land cover changes, which occurred during the past 16 years (1990–2006) in the region. The rate of land cover change was observed to vary across the sub periods and a general decline of forest cover and increase in rangelands and water bodies was observed. Logistic regression model was employed to analyze the relationship between changes and explanatory factors. The land cover change results and logistic models developed in this study are useful in supporting natural resources management efforts and provide useful information for managers/policy makers in formulation of sustainable management strategies for the region.     

Assessment of floodplain landuse and channel morphology within meandering reach of the Talar River in Iran using GIS and aerial photographs

Abstract

The main objective of this study is to investigate and monitor the landuse and morphological changes in the floodplain part of the Talar River, northern parts of Iran. In the present study, the aerial photographs have been used to produce landuse maps of the floodplain for three periods including 1968, 1994, and 2013. The quantitative analysis of the produced landuse maps showed that the floodplain has undergone substantial landuse changes. Moreover, the sediment bar and the beach area have been decreased about 97 and 90%, respectively, during the 45-year period. Substantial increases of 192 and 622% have been observed for orchards and residential areas, respectively. On the other hand, not only the forest and riparian vegetation were decreased but also the average width of river was decreased about 25.5 m. In addition, flow length of the study reach increased about 8 m. The RNCI was about ?0.7 m per year indicating sedimentation process. During the period of 1968–2013, Caspian Sea has retreated about 150 m and the delta of Talar River was changed. This study showed that morphological actions during first 26 years (1968–1994) were the stable and last 19 years had the change period, especially sedimentation (bar).     

Bayesian networks and agent-based modeling approach for urban land-use and population density change: a BNAS model

Land-use change models grounded in complexity theory such as agent-based models (ABMs) are increasingly being used to examine evolving urban systems. The objective of this study is to develop a spatial model that simulates land-use change under the influence of human land-use choice behavior. This is achieved by integrating the key physical and social drivers of land-use change using Bayesian networks (BNs) coupled with agent-based modeling. The BNAS model, integrated Bayesian network–based agent system, presented in this study uses geographic information systems, ABMs, BNs, and influence diagram principles to model population change on an irregular spatial structure. The model is parameterized with historical data and then used to simulate 20 years of future population and land-use change for the City of Surrey, British Columbia, Canada. The simulation results identify feasible new urban areas for development around the main transportation corridors. The obtained new development areas and the projected population trajectories with the“what-if” scenario capabilities can provide insights into urban planners for better and more informed land-use policy or decision-making processes.     

Monitoring intra and inter annual dynamics of forest degradation from charcoal production in Southern Africa with Sentinel – 2 imagery

The contribution of forest degradation to changes in forest carbon stocks remains poorly quantified and constitutes a main source of uncertainty in the forest carbon budget. Charcoal production is a major source of forest degradation in sub-Saharan Africa. We used multitemporal Sentinel-2 imagery to monitor and quantify forest degradation extent in the main supplying area of a major urban center of southern Africa over a 4-year period. We implemented an indirect approach combining Sentinel-2 imagery to map kiln and field measurements to estimate AGB removals and carbon losses from charcoal production. This work generated 10 m resolution maps of forest degradation extent from charcoal production in the study area at quarterly intervals from 2016–2019. These maps reveal an intense and rapid forest degradation process and expose the spatial and temporal patterns of forest degradation from charcoal production with high detail. The total area under charcoal production over the study period reached 26,647 ha (SD = 320.8) and the forest degradation front advanced 10.5 km in a 4-year period, with an average of 19.4 ha of woodlands degraded daily. By the end of 2019, charcoal production disturbed most mopane stands in the study area and woodland fragmentation increased in 70.4 % of the mopane woodlands. We estimated that charcoal production was responsible for 2,568,761 Mg (SD = 42,130) of aboveground biomass extracted from the forest and 1,284,381 Mg (SD = 21,075) of carbon loss. The magnitude of these figures underlines the relevance of charcoal production as a main cause of forest cover change and remarks the existing uncertainties in the quantification of forest degradation processes. These results illustrate the potential of multitemporal medium resolution imagery to quantify forest degradation in sub-Saharan Africa and improve REDD + Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification systems in compliance with international reporting commitments.     

Major forest changes and land cover transitions based on plant functional types derived from the ESA CCI Land Cover product

Land use and land cover change are of prime concern due to their impacts on CO₂ emissions, climate change and ecological services. New global land cover products at 300 m resolution from the European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change Initiative Land Cover (CCI LC) project for epochs centered around 2000, 2005 and 2010 were analyzed to investigate forest area change and land cover transitions. Plant functional types (PFTs) fractions were derived from these land cover products according to a conversion table. The gross global forest loss between 2000 and 2010 is 172,171 km², accounting for 0.6% of the global forest area in year 2000. The forest changes are mainly distributed in tropical areas such as Brazil and Indonesia. Forest gains were only observed between 2005 and 2010 with a global area of 9844 km², mostly from crops in Southeast Asia and South America. The predominant PFT transition is deforestation from forest to crop, accounting for four-fifths of the total increase of cropland area between 2000 and 2010. The transitions from forest to bare soil, shrub, and grass also contributed strongly to the total areal change in PFTs. Different PFT transition matrices and composition patterns were found in different regions. The highest fractions of forest to bare soil transitions were found in the United States and Canada, reflecting forest management practices. Most of the degradation from grassland and shrubland to bare soil occurred in boreal regions. The areal percentage of forest loss and land cover transitions generally decreased from 2000–2005 to 2005–2010. Different data sources and uncertainty in the conversion factors (converting from original LC classes to PFTs) contribute to the discrepancy in the values of change in absolute forest area.