基于GIS的滑坡、泥石流灾害危险性区划关键问题研究

随着GIS技术的引入,滑坡、泥石流灾害危险性区划的效率和准确性得以大大提高。依据工程地质类比原则,在灾害学理论指导下,结合专家打分、层次分析、人工神经网络、信息量、Logistic回归、统计量等模型方法,以MAPGIS软件为平台,利用C++语言开发了滑坡、泥石流灾害危险性区划评价分析系统;并重点探讨了GIS支持下的滑坡、泥石流灾害危险性区划过程中的因子分析、模型选取、模型复合、单元划分、系统集成、结果评价等关键问题,建立了一整套基于GIS的滑坡、泥石流灾害评价方法体系。应用该系统对长江三峡库区和辽宁省鞍山市分别开展了滑坡、泥石流灾害危险性区划研究,取得了较好的效果。     

基于GIS的北京市延庆县地质灾害易发性区域划分

随着灾害科学研究的深入，区域地质灾害已成为其重要的研究领域。文章利用遥感技术及GPS工具获取地质灾害的特征信息，在对地质灾害的成因背景分析基础上，运用GIS空间分析功能和地质灾害危险性评价、评估理论构建了地质灾害发育度模型。以北京市延庆县为实验区，采用ArcEngine＆．NET进行易发性分区程序的编写，计算研究区域内单元网格的发育度值。为了克服调查数据的局限性和人为因素，在计算发育度时引入修正系数，从延庆县DEM数据中提取单元格网内的地形坡度值，根据坡度值区间确定修正系数。将发育度计算结果按照一定规律、原则聚类。进行地质灾害易发性区域划分，取得了与实际情况较为一致的结果。基于“3S”技术及灾害地质条件，采用地质灾害发育度模型，可以较好地用于区域地质灾害易发性区域的划分，并能为防灾、减灾提供重要信息。     

Seismic Hazard Mapping and Microzonation in the Sikkim Himalaya through GIS Integration of Site Effects and Strong Ground Motion Attributes

The seismic ground motion hazard is mapped in the Sikkim Himalaya with local and regional site conditions incorporated through geographic information system. A strong motion network in Sikkim comprising of 9 digital accelerographs recorded more than 100 events during 1998–2002, of which 41 events are selected with signal-to-noise ratio 3 for the estimation of site response (SR), peak ground acceleration (PGA) and predominant frequency (PF) at all stations. With these and inputs from IRS-1C LISS III digital data, topo-sheets, geographical boundary of the State of Sikkim, surface geological maps, soil taxonomy map in 1:50,000 scale and seismic refraction profiles, the seismological and geological thematic maps, namely, SR, PGA, PF, lithology, soil class, %slope, drainage, and landslide layers are generated. The geological themes are united to form the basic site condition coverage of the region. The seismological themes are assigned normalized weights and feature ranks following a pair-wise comparison hierarchical approach and later integrated to evolve the seismic hazard map. When geological and seismological layers are integrated together through GIS, microzonation map is prepared. The overall site response, PGA and predominant frequency show an increasing trend in the NW–SE direction peaking at Singtam in the lesser Himalaya. As Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) is approached, the attribute value increases further. A quasi-probabilistic seismic hazard index has been proposed based on site response, peak ground acceleration and predominant frequency. Six seismic hazard zones are marked with percent probability <22%, 22–37%, 37–52%, 52–67%, 67–82%, >82% at 3 Hz and <20%, 20–34%, 34–48%, 48–61%, 61–75%, >75% at 9 Hz. In the microzonation vector layer of integrated seismological and geological themes also six major zones are mapped, with percent probability <15%, 15–31%, 31–47%, 47–63%, 63–78%, >78% at low frequency end. The maximum risk is attached to the probability greater than 78% in the Singtam and its adjoining area. These maps are generally better spatial representation of seismic hazard including site-specific analysis.     

Seismic hazard analysis for critical infrastructures in California

California is in a highly seismically active region, and structures must be designed and constructed to withstand earthquakes. Seismic hazard analysis to estimate realistic earthquake ground motions and surface fault rupture offsets is done for various mitigation measures. The best policy is to avoid constructing structures crossing seismogenic faults. Because earthquake timings are unpredictable within our current understanding, the best method is time-invariant deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DHSA) to assess effects from the largest single earthquake called Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCEs) expected from seismogenic faults. Time-dependent hazard estimates such as those arrived at through probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) are inherently unreliable. Hazard analyses based on MCEs have been in continuous use for the design and construction of highways and bridges in California for over 30 years.

This paper presents an alternative to other methods of analysis, e.g., Abrahamson (2000) [Abrahamson, N.A., 2000. State of the practice of seismic hazard evaluation. Melbourne: proceedings of GeoEng, 2000].     

Forecasting rupture dimension using the pattern informatics technique

The Pattern Informatics (PI) technique [Tiampo, K.F., Rundle, J.B., McGinnis, S., Gross, S., Klein, W., 2002. Mean-field threshold systems and phase dynamics: An application to earthquake fault systems, Europhys. Lett., 60, 481–487] is founded on the premise that changes in the seismicity rate are a proxy for changes in the underlying stress. This new approach to the study of seismicity quantifies its local and regional space–time patterns and identifies regions of local quiescence or activation. Here we use a modification of the PI method to quantify localized changes surrounding the epicenters of large earthquakes in California in an attempt to objectively quantify the rupture zones of these upcoming events. We show that this method can be used to forecast the size and magnitude of future earthquakes.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard zonation of Syria

Earthquake hazard maps for Syria are presented in this paper. The Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) on bedrock, both with 90% probability of not being exceeded during a life time of 50, 100 and 200 years, respectively are developed. The probabilistic PGA and MMI values are evaluated assuming linear sources (faults) as potential sources of future earthquakes. A new attenuation relationship for this region is developed. Ten distinctive faults of potential earthquakes are identified in and around Syria. The pertinent parameters of each fault, such as theb-parameter in the Gutenberg-Richter formula, the annual rate ₄ and the upper bound magnitudem ₁ are determined from two sets of seismic data: the historical earthquakes and the instrumentally recorded earthquake data (AD 1900–1992). The seismic hazard maps developed are intended for preliminary analysis of new designs and seismic check of existing civil engineering structures.     

滑坡灾害预测分区的计算机制图

本文在滑坡灾害预测分区的信息模型基础上,重点讨论了灾害预测的计算机制图化的主要过程:因素的数值化,单元边界的确定和彩色图件的绘制。运用中国地质大学计算机系开发的Mapcad系统,在Mv/10000计算机上较好地处理了不规则图幅边界的自然裁剪,不规则单元的输入,以及彩色图件的绘制等问题。     

基于GIS异常信息提取的地震灾害分析

2008年5月12日的汶川地震造成了巨大的人员伤亡和财产损失。从地质异常的角度出发,采用基于GIS的地质异常定量分析的方法,以1∶50万数字地质图和四川汶川地震地质分析成果为基础,定量地分析了地震发育程度与断裂构造的相互关系,认为汶川地震主要受区域性深大断裂的控制,受局部性浅源断裂的影响较小。进一步对影响地震破坏程度的断裂的活动性进行了探讨,依据分析结果得出了受灾严重区域,并解释了灾区北部受灾较南部轻的原因。采用这种研究方法,可以迅速地确定地震灾害发生的严重地区,为今后地震发生后迅速确定受灾严重区域、指导抢险救灾工作提供帮助。     

防震减灾空间信息资源改造方案设计

本文简要介绍“数字福建”项目中防震减灾空间信息资源改造的设计方案     

Methodological study of coastal geological hazard assessment based on GIS

The current researches on risk assessment of geological disasters mainly focus on unexpected disasters such as collapses, landslides and mud-rock flows etc. As the convergence zone of land and sea, coastal zone is the most active and complex area of interactions of lithosphere, hydrosphere, atmosphere, biosphere and anthroposphere. The ecological environment of coastal zone is very fragile, so further systematical research on coastal geological hazard assessment and prevention is in urgent need. The author begins with the definition and research contents and selects three typical coastal geological disasters, namely, the seawater intrusion, coastline change and sea-level rise as the objects of study. The systematic analysis and study on assessment system and methods are conducted, hazard assessment factors are selected, and a completely set of coastal disaster assessment system is established based on the technique of GIS. We took Bao’an District of Shenzhen City as an example and carried out a case study.     

Mapping of landslide hazard zonation using GIS at Golestan watershed, northeast of Iran

Landslide hazard zonation is essential for planning future developmental activities. At the present study, after the preparation of a landslide inventory of the study area, nine factors as well as sub-data layers of factor class weights were tested for an integrated analysis of landslide hazard in the region. The produced factor maps were weighted with the analytic hierarchy process method and then classified into four classes—negligible, low, moderate, and high. The final produced map for landslide hazard zonation in Golestan watershed revealed that: (1) about 53.85 % of the basin is prone to moderate and high threats of landslides. (2) Landslide events at the Golestan watershed were strongly correlated to the slope angle of the basin. It was observed that the active landslide zones, including moderate to high landslide hazard classes, have a high correlation to slope classes over 30° (R ²?=?0.769). (3) The regions most susceptible to landslide hazard are those located south and southwest of the watershed, which included rock topples, falls, and debris landslides.     

浙江省永嘉县滑坡灾害危险性区划

永嘉县是浙江省滑坡灾害发生频繁的区县之一,其滑坡受地质、地形和人类工程活动等因素的影响.本文根据永嘉县滑坡灾害分布情况,选择了影响滑坡分布的主要因素,将各种因子归一化处理后转换成相同分辨率的定量数据,选择了逻辑回归分析模型和信息量模型进行滑坡灾害危险性评价.在逻辑回归模型中,利用SPSS软件,通过逐步回归分析筛选出影响滑坡的最直接的因子,计算出各个因子的回归系数,得到逻辑回归方程,据此编制了危险性预测分区图.在信息量模型中,通过MAPGIS软件及其二次开发的信息量模型,对永嘉县滑坡灾害进行了危险性区划,并依信息量法的结果编制了该区的危险性预测分区图.两种方法所编制的危险性分区图中高危险区和中危险区重合率达到了87%,具有很高的一致性,起到了相互验证的作用,为滑坡的有效防治提供了依据.最后根据"云娜"台风期间永嘉县实际灾害发生情况的资料分析,新灾害点绝大部分落在危险性预测区中的高危险区,表明模型的预测准确率很高.     

Evaluation of earthquake potential along the Northern Anatolian Fault Zone in the Marmara Sea using comparisons of GPS strain and seismotectonic parameters

Seismotectonic parameters including the Gutenberg-Richter b-value and multifractal dimensions D₂ and D₁₅ of seismicity patterns (both spatial and temporal) were compared to GPS-derived maximum shear and dilatation strains measured in the Marmara Sea region of western Turkey along the Northern Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ). Comparisons of seismotectonic parameters and GPS-derived maximum shear and dilatation strain along the NAFZ in the vicinity of the 1999 M7.4 Izmit earthquake reveal a positive correlation (r = 0.5, p = 0.05) between average dilatation and the Gutenberg-Richter b-value. Significant negative correlation (r = − 0.56, p = 0.03 and r = − 0.56, p = 0.02) was also observed between the spatial fractal dimension D₂ and GPS-derived maximum geodetic and shear strain. This relationship suggests that, as maximum geodetic and shear strains increase, seismicity becomes increasingly clustered.Anomalous interrelationships are observed in the Marmara Sea region prior to the Izmit event along a bend in the NAFZ near the eastern end of the Marmara Sea known as the Northern Boundary Fault (NBF). An asperity is located near the northwest end of the NBF. Along the 50-km length of the NBF, GPS strains become slightly compressive. The correlation between b-value and GPS-derived dilatation suggests that regions in compression have increased probability of larger magnitude rupture. The NBF appears to serve as an impediment to the transfer of strain from east to west along the NAFZ. Recurrence times for large earthquakes along the NBF are larger than in surrounding areas. Temporal clustering of seismicity in the vicinity of the NBF may represent foreshocks of an impending rupture.     

基于GIS 及聚类分析法的抚顺地区地质灾害综合评价

采用GIS 手段建立研究区地质灾害的多影响因素空间数据库,确定本区域引发地质灾害的因素评价体系。运用GIS 技术空间数据分析方法,结合评价分级准则,对地质灾害影响因素进行处理,采用聚类分析法初步确定4 类地质灾害聚类区。Ⅰ类区为抚顺市区工程活动主导因素型地质灾害区; Ⅱ 类区为沟谷盆地及其边缘工程活动诱发因素型地质灾害区; Ⅲ类区为北部及中部丘陵工程活动微弱因素型地质灾害区; Ⅳ类区为南部低山丘陵自然因素主导型地质灾害区。     

Earthquake swarms in continental rifts — A comparison of selected cases in America, Africa and Europe

The occurrence of earthquake swarms is typically related to magmatic activity in volcanoes, yet swarms are also common in other intracontinental regions such as continental rifts. We present here a summary of geophysical observations that have been made in earthquake swarm areas of the Rio Grande, Kenya, and Eger rifts, focusing on characteristic parameters for the origin and generation of the swarm earthquakes.Our compilation of seismological parameters such as spatial distribution and focal parameters of hypocenters, magnitude statistics, and the location of the swarm centres in the rift environments reveals major similarities. The earthquake swarms take place at shallow depth between 0 and 10 km. The maximum magnitudes are mostly less than 4.5. The b-values, indicating the magnitude frequency relation of the seismicity, are about 0.8. They are hence not deviating from a normal non-volcanic intraplate environment, but are considerably lower than those of volcanic earthquake swarms. Focal mechanism studies give uniform pictures of stress field orientation and faulting style for the swarm areas. In all three rifts, the centres of swarm activity seem to be restricted to rift valley sections that may be influenced by large-scale fracture or shear zones that intersect the rifts. We conclude that these deep-reaching zones of weakness allow intrusions of upper mantle material into crustal layers, where magma-related fluids or fluctuations of the magma bodies themselves cause the generation of earthquake swarms.     

First Order Seismic Microzonation of Delhi,India Using Geographic Information System (GIS)

A first order seismic microzonation map of Delhi is prepared using five thematic layers viz., Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) contour, different soil types at 6 m depth, geology, groundwater fluctuation and bedrock depth, integrated on GIS platform. The integration is performed following a pair-wise comparison of Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), wherein each thematic map is assigned weight in the 5-1 scale: depending on its contribution towards the seismic hazard. Following the AHP, the weightage assigned to each theme are: PGA (0.333), soil (0.266), geology (0.20), groundwater (0.133) and bedrock depth (0.066). The thematic vector layers are overlaid and integrated using GIS. On the microzonation theme, the Delhi region has been classified into four broad zones of vulnerability to the seismic hazard. They are very high (> 52%), high (38–52%), moderate (23–38%) and less ( < 23%) zones of seismic hazard. The “very high” seismic hazard zone is observed where the maximum PGA varies from 140 to 210 gal for a finite source model of M_w 8.5 in the central seismic gap. A site amplification study from local and regional earthquakes for Delhi region using Delhi Telemetry Network data shows a steeper site response gradient in the eastern side of the Yamuna fluvial deposits at 1.5 Hz. The ‘high’ seismic hazard zone occupies most of the study area where the PGA value ranges from 90 to 140 gal. The ‘moderate’ seismic hazard zone occurs on either side of the Delhi ridge with PGA value varying from 60 to 90 gal. The ‘less’ seismic hazard zone occurs in small patches distributed along the study area with the PGA value less than 60 gal. Site response studies, PGA distribution and destruction pattern of the Chamoli earthquake greatly corroborate the seismic hazard zones estimated through microzonation on GIS platform and also establishes the methodology incorporated in this study.     

Seismicity, seismotectonics and seismic hazard of Italy

A first generation of probabilistic seismic hazard maps of the Italian country are presented. They are based on seismogenic zoning deriving from a kinematic model of the structural tectonic units and on an earthquake catalogue with the foreshock and aftershock events filtered out. The following ground motion parameters have been investigated and mapped using attenuation equations based on strong-motion recordings of Italian earthquakes: peak ground acceleration and velocity; Arias intensity; strong motion duration; and the pseudovelocity and pseudoacceleration spectral values at 14 fixed frequencies both for the vertical and the largest horizontal component. A Poissonian model of earthquake occurrence is assumed as a default and the hazard maps are presented in terms of ground motion values expected to be exceeded at a 10% probability level in 50 years (return period 475 years) according to the requirement of Eurocode 8 for the seismic classification of national territories, as well as in terms of exceedance probabilities of selected ground motion values. Finally, as a tentative study, the use of hybrid methods (implementing both seismogenic zones and structures), renewal processes (including earthquake forecasting) and the influence of site effects (as the basis for the planning of earthquake scenarios) were explored.     

Earthquake activity related to seismic cycles in a model for a heterogeneous strike-slip fault

We investigate the evolution of seismicity within large earthquake cycles in a model of a discrete strike-slip fault in elastic solid. The model dynamics is governed by realistic boundary conditions consisting of constant velocity motion of regions around the fault, static/kinetic friction and dislocation creep along the fault, and 3D elastic stress transfer. The fault consists of brittle parts which fail during earthquakes and undergo small creep deformation between events, and aseismic creep cells which are characterized by high ongoing creep motion. This mixture of brittle and creep cells is found to generate realistic aftershock sequences which follow the modified Omori law and scale with the mainshock size. Furthermore, we find that the distribution of interevent times of the simulated earthquakes is in good agreement with observations. The temporal occurrence, however, is magnitude-dependent; in particular, the small events are clustered in time, whereas the largest earthquakes occur quasiperiodically. Averaging the seismicity before several large earthquakes, we observe an increase of activity and a broadening scaling range of magnitudes when the time of the next mainshock is approached. These results are characteristics of a critical point behavior. The presence of critical point dynamics is further supported by the evolution of the stress field in the model, which is compatible with the observation of accelerating moment release in natural fault systems.     

基于RS与GIS的层次分析法在滑坡危险性评估中的应用——以四川宣汉天台乡滑坡为例

基于遥感(RS)和地理信息系统(GIS)技术,采用多层次分析(AHP)法,以四川宣汉天台乡为研究区,根据该区实际情况,选取线性构造、道路、土地利用、坡度、坡向5种影响滑坡灾害发生的因素作为评价因子,进行区域滑坡危险性评估。在ArcGIS的空间分析环境中运行权重叠加,把研究区划分成滑坡极易发生区、易发生区、一般发生区、可能发生区、难发生区和极难发生区。通过实地调查和与研究区的滑坡灾害实证研究结果进行比较,发现评估结果与实际状况较为吻合,研究方法能够准确地评估区域滑坡灾害危险性的程度。     

Estimation of earthquake hazard parameters for incomplete and uncertain data files

The maximum likelihood estimation of earthquake hazard parameters (maximum regional magnitudem _max, activity rate , and theb parameter in the Gutenberg-Richter distribution) is extended to the cases of incomplete and uncertain data. The method accepts mixed data containing only large (extreme) events and a variable quality of complete data with different threshold magnitude values. Uncertainty of earthquake magnitude is specified by two values, the lower and upper magnitude limits. It is assumed that such an interval contains the real unknown magnitude. The proposed approach allows the combination of different quality catalog parts, e.g. those where the assignment of magnitude is questionable and those with magnitudes precisely determined.As an illustration of the method, the seismic hazard analysis for western Norway and adjacent sea area (4–8°E, 58–64°N) is presented on the basis of the strongest earthquakes felt during the period 1831–1889 and three complete catalog parts, covering the period 1890–1987.Paper presented at the 21st General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission held in Sofia, 1988.On leave from Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland.