地面上行报的实时检索

本文介绍了在现有气象业务通信网络系统下，利用Visual Basic6．0设计实时地面上行报文自动检索程序的设计思路和技术要点，从而建立预报服务所需的气象要素资料库。     

科学决策是业务系统建设持续发展的根本保证 ——国家气象中心数值预报业务系统建设回忆

回顾了中央气象台60年来,数值天气预报(NWP)业务系统的发展历程。指出NWP系统是一项气象工程系统建设,是多学科理论和技术相结合的结果。回顾了从目标方向、技术路线、工作方式、人才队伍培养以及土建设计等方面的科学决策和实践过程,阐述了科学决策是业务系统建设持续发展的根本保证。从建设事例中可以看到30年来NWP顺利发展的历史证明了科学发展观的正确性。     

台风试验陆地加密观测在数值天气预报中的作用

采用国家气象中心（NMC）有限区同化预报系统（HLAFS）和华北区域分析预报系统（NCAFS）的基本方案,选择“八五”期间台风试验期进行陆地测站特殊加密观测的两个台风个例作数值天气预报（NWP）试验,探讨这些资料在NWP中的作用。试验结果表明:陆地测站加密地面观测资料,对NMC的NWP系统的预报,尤其在较高分辨率情况下,具有较明显的改进作用。     

近30a登陆我国的西北太平洋热带气旋活动的时空变化特征

采用1979—2006年美国联合台风预警中心的热带气旋（tropical cyclone,TC）资料,对登陆我国的西北太平洋（Northwest Pacific,NWP）TC强度、路径、登陆地点的气候特征、年际变化及其演变趋势进行了统计分析。结果表明：登陆我国的TC以发源于西北太平洋的西侧以及南海中、北部为主,并且在NWP西南区生成的登陆我国的TC基本以西北移动路径为主,而在NWP西北侧和南海生成的登陆我国的TC多为打转或移动路径转向;登陆我国的TC不仅在强度上具有明显增强的变化规律,而且在登陆位置上存在向东北方向偏移的演变趋势,使得登陆厦门以北区域的TC数量具有增加的趋势,而登陆厦门以南的TC数量存在减少的趋势;登陆我国的NWP TC移动路径存在年代际的演变特征。     

北京B模式850hpa温度场预报的检验和应用

预报检验是数值预报业务系统中不可缺少的重要一环.检验结果不仅客观、定量地反映了数值预报产品的水平,更重要的是通过检验,使我们在日常预报业务工作中,深入了解数值预报(NWP)产品的系统误差和区域分布,以便在使用NWP产品时,对其预     

北太平洋夏季的两个典型层积云区与海温和大气低层热力过程的关系

比较ISCCP D2层积云云量的季节平均图后发现:除了大洋东部常年有层积云外,北太平洋夏季也存在一片大值区.在副热带东北太平洋和中纬度西北太平洋各取一个10°×10°的区域,分别记为NEP和NWP.利用OI-SST、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和ERBE资料,通过相关和气候分析,提出了新的物理意义明确的稳定度判据,比较了NEP和NWP两个区的夏季层积云云量与海温、大气热力过程的异同.结果表明:夏季,NEP和NWP都有正的稳定度,有利于层积云的形成和维持.NEP区和NWP区夏季的海气温差、感热通量、潜热通量有明显的差异.从海温和夏季层积云云量的相关分析发现:在NEP区,海温滞后于层积云云量,其相关于滞后3个月时有最大负值,这可能是由于海洋有较大的热惯性,对层积云遮蔽太阳辐射而导致洋面降温的响应需要3个月;而在NWP区,则是海温超前于层积云云量,其相关于超前1个月时有最大负值,这可能是由于从5月份开始海温低于气温,且有暖空气平流,有利于随后层积云、层云和雾的形成.     

登陆热带气旋降水预报研究回顾与展望

重点围绕登陆热带气旋（LTC）降水预报研究进行了回顾和总结,指出针对LTC降水有三类预报技术：动力模式、统计方法和动力-统计结合的预报方法。以数值天气预报（NWP）模式为代表的预报技术对LTC降水的预报能力仍然非常有限。改进NWP模式预报误差的途径主要有两条：一是发展NWP模式;二是发展动力-统计结合的方法。分析表明,动力-统计相似预报是一项很有潜力的技术;针对现有研究中的不足,开展LTC降水动力-统计相似预报研究,探索减小数值模式LTC降水预报误差的有效方法,将是一个充满希望的研究领域和方向。     

单部多普勒天气雷达风场反演及其在数值预报中的应用试验

针对1998年7月5日下午到夜间北京地区出现的一次强降雨过程, 采用“局部VAD法”, 对中国气象科学研究院多普勒雷达测得的1998年7月5日12:00UTC的径向风反演成水平风, 并将反演风应用到数值天气预报 (NWP) 同化系统中, 进行了同化预报试验。结果表明, 反演的雷达风基本符合事实, 将其应用到NWP中, 有助于分析和预报时空尺度较小的中尺度系统。     

数值预报:气象事业的主战场——第33届中国气象学会年会“数值模式产品应用与评估”分会场评介

一方面,NWP已经成为连接动力气象乃至地球系统等基础研究的前沿领域;另一方面,NWP作为提高气象业务预报能力的主要工具,成为决定气象服务能力和服务水平高低的关键要素。     

Chen-Chao Koo and the Early Numerical Weather Prediction Experiments in China

Although the first successful numerical weather prediction(NWP)project led by Charney and von Neumann is widely known,little is known by the international community about the development of NWP during the 1950s in China.Here,a detailed historical perspective on the early NWP experiments in China is provided.The leadership in NWP of the late Professor Chen-Chao Koo,a protége of C.G.Rossby at the University of Stockholm during the late 1940s and a key leader of modern meteorology(particularly of atmospheric dynamics and physics)in China during the 1950s?70s,is highlighted.The unique contributions to NWP by Koo and his students,such as the ideas of formulating NWP as an“evolution”problem,in which the past data over multiple time steps are utilized,rather than an initial-value problem,and on the cybernetic aspects of atmospheric processes,i.e.,regarding the motion of the atmosphere at various time scales as an optimal control system,are also emphasized.     

加强业务管理提高测报质量

我局从1999～2003年,测报工作连续4年未出现错情,在此期间共有1个250个班,9个百班无错通过上级业务部门验收.在仪器保管、使用、维护上符合要求,对外报送的各种表、簿都能做好出门合格.     

Addressing the necessity of the registration of the effects of causal mechanics in the example of a simple barotropic model of the atmosphere

Summary Considering the effects of causal mechanics on geophysical problems enables us to explain a number of phenomena, which cannot be explained from conventional positions. This paper shows that the introduction of the force of causality in a simple barotropic hydrodynamic model of weather forecasts results in the outcomes, which, on the one hand, can not be described from the positions of classical hydro-thermodynamics, whilst on the other hand, exist in nature.     

Modeling the evolution of the family of Mediterranean cyclones using the regional model of the atmosphere

Due to the complex orography and the presence of the moisture-saturated air, the Mediterranean region is characterized by the increased baroclinic and convective instability, that leads to the sudden cyclogenesis and the formation of dangerous weather phenomena. The results are given of the investigation of formation mechanisms of Mediterranean cyclones, peculiarities of stages of their evolution and dynamical processes, which occur throughout the atmosphere, using the regional numerical ETA model of the atmosphere by the example of individual cases of the cyclogenesis over the Mediterranean Sea. It is revealed that the cold Arctic air outbreak (the intrusion of the cold Arctic air) to the south of the Western Europe, leading to the formation of the areas of the baroclinic instability and the increased moisture content of the air in the area of the vortex origin, favors the cyclogenesis. The use of the vertical coordinate η in the model enabled to compute more precisely the vertical wind speed, therefore, the influence of the orography on the moisture content and precipitation increase became pronounced. The transformation of the structure of meteorological fields in the course of the development of vortexes is considered. The computation of the helicity is made, and it is shown that this characteristic can be one of the earliest predictors of cyclogenesis.     

Analysis of the Characteristics of the Low-level Jets in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River during the Mei-yu Season

Here, we analyze the characteristics and the formation mechanisms of low-level jets(LLJs) in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River during the 2010 mei-yu season using Wuhan station radiosonde data and the fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ERA5) reanalysis dataset. Our results show that the vertical structure of LLJs is characterized by a predominance of boundary layer jets(BLJs) concentrated at heights of 900–1200 m.The BLJs occur most frequently at 230...     

流场配置及地形对西南低涡形成的动力作用

本文采用定常二层模式讨论较小地形及高、低层流场配置对西南低涡形成的动力作用。指出了西南低涡的形成是与盆地、河谷以及其上气流分层有关的一种定常态.在上、下为西风分层时期,低层的浅薄暖湿西风有利于西南低涡的形成.在上、下为东、西风分层时期,上层浅薄东风亦有利于西南低涡的形成.小型的凸起山脉对西南低涡的形成没有作用.     

On the determination of the height of the Ekman boundary layer

The heighth of the Ekman turbulent boundary layer determined by the momentum flux profile is estimated with the aid of considerations of similarity and an analysis of the dynamic equations. Asymptotic formulae have been obtained showing that, with increasing instability,h increases as ¦¦^1/2 (where is the non-dimensional stratification parameter); with increasing stability, on the other hand,h decreases as ^–1/2. For comparison, a simple estimate of the boundary-layer heighth _u determined by the velocity profile is given. As is shown, in unstable stratification,h _u behaves asymptotically as ¦¦^–1, i.e., in a manner entirely different from that ofh .     

接地降阻剂的PH值的探讨

1引言我国执行接地降阻剂测试的技术标准是全国电力系统起草的:“接地降阻剂暂行技术条件修改稿”。在技术要求中要求接地降阻剂的酸碱值应在7￣12范围内。在实际使用中发现该技术要求对接地降阻剂的酸碱值要求范围并不合理,需要分析和讨论。2接地降阻剂的PH值接地降阻剂的酸碱性对地网的使用寿命至关重要,为了不让接地降阻剂腐蚀接地体或者减弱接地降阻剂对接地体的腐蚀,在接地降阻剂测试的技术要求中,对接地降阻剂的酸碱度有一定的限制。国内各厂家用于生产接地降阻剂的偏弱酸的盐类进行了对镀锌钢材腐蚀的试验,结果是这些镀锌钢材均受到…     

阴山山脉对内蒙古中部地区气象要素影响初探

文章选用阴山山脉山北乌拉特后旗、白云、达茂旗、苏尼特左旗、化德,山南杭后旗、包头、呼和浩特、察右前旗、兴和1971—2000年气温、降水量、天气现象等资料进行对比分析,得到阴山山脉对内蒙古自治区中部地区气象要素影响初步结论。     

2003年黑龙江省主要灾害性天气及其对作物生长发育和粮食产量的影响

利用40年气温、降水资料和历史上千旱、低温严重的年份与2003年进行对比分析．评估黑龙江省2003年发生的严重灾害的分布范同,灾害程度,及其对主要粮食作物生长发育和产量的影响。得出2003年的灾害是30年未遇的全省性严重灾害年,各种灾害对各种作物都产生了不同程度的影响,受害最重的作物是小麦。     

On the forecast of the onset and end of the convective season in the Amazon

Summary ?Some features of the climate system that can be considered predictors of the onset and end of the convective season over the Amazon were identified using one-month lag correlations and field composites. The fields analyzed were sea surface temperature (SST), outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR), vertical velocity and upper tropospheric winds. Warm (cold) anomalies in the SST in the tropical North Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea tend to be associated with delayed (early) onsets. Likewise, there is a tendency towards a delayed (early) end of the convective season with cold (warm) anomalies in these ocean regions. In addition, the SST in the cold tongue region of the equatorial Pacific is negatively, though weakly correlated with the onset date. The signal of this SST is more evident in the case of the end date, which is earlier with respect to its mean date in most of El Ni?o cases. The convective activity intensity itself conditions the onset and the end of the convective season, as it is evidenced by the behavior of the OLR and the vertical velocity fields. The more (less) intense the convective activity over South America during the preceding month, the earlier the onset and the later the end of the convective season on the Amazon region. The prediction of the onset and end dates of the convective season in the Amazon region was explored using a simple multiple regression technique based on the variables that have shown precursor signals with respect to these dates. The correlation coefficient between the predicted and the observed onset date is 0.81, and in the case of the end date, it is 0.76. The skill to predict early, delayed and normal categories was high, since in more than two thirds of the cases the category was successfully predicted, and there were no predictions of categories opposed to those observed. Received July 23, 2001; revised February 22, 2002; accepted April 26, 2002