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1.
Alessia Viero Sandro Furlanis Cristina Squarzoni Giordano Teza Antonio Galgaro Piero Gianolla 《Landslides》2013,10(4):393-408
On October 12th, 2007 about 40,000 m3 of dolomitic rock detached from the northern wall of the peak known as “Cima Una” (Val Fiscalina, Sesto Dolomites, Bolzano, Italy), and fell 900 m to Fiscalina Valley below. The event generated a dense dust cloud, which traveled up to 4 km from the source area. The failure surface was formed by two near-vertical surfaces, almost perpendicular to each other. The orientation of these surfaces is consistent with two of the main regional tectonic sets. Only a small portion of the fallen material appeared to be preserved as blocks deposited at the base of the rock wall. About a fifth of the fallen mass was deposited on a colluvial cone. The missing mass, estimated to be about 80 %, may be represented by highly fragmented rock in part deposited as sand on the valley floor and in part dispersed as a dense dust cloud generated during the rockfall. There appears to be a deficit of deposited material, which could lead underestimation in the calculation of rock–cliff recession rates. The dynamics of the rockfall, strongly conditioned by the local topography, partially explains the intense rock breakage and the generation of the dust cloud. The rockfall was not caused by an external trigger, such as an earthquake or heavy rainfall; the failure was most likely progressive due to mechanical and physical degradation along highly stressed failure surfaces, possibly promoted by permafrost degradation and freeze and thaw processes. 相似文献
2.
B. Matasci G. M. Stock M. Jaboyedoff D. Carrea B. D. Collins A. Guérin G. Matasci L. Ravanel 《Landslides》2018,15(5):859-878
Rockfalls strongly influence the evolution of steep rocky landscapes and represent a significant hazard in mountainous areas. Defining the most probable future rockfall source areas is of primary importance for both geomorphological investigations and hazard assessment. Thus, a need exists to understand which areas of a steep cliff are more likely to be affected by a rockfall. An important analytical gap exists between regional rockfall susceptibility studies and block-specific geomechanical calculations. Here we present methods for quantifying rockfall susceptibility at the cliff scale, which is suitable for sub-regional hazard assessment (hundreds to thousands of square meters). Our methods use three-dimensional point clouds acquired by terrestrial laser scanning to quantify the fracture patterns and compute failure mechanisms for planar, wedge, and toppling failures on vertical and overhanging rock walls. As a part of this work, we developed a rockfall susceptibility index for each type of failure mechanism according to the interaction between the discontinuities and the local cliff orientation. The susceptibility for slope parallel exfoliation-type failures, which are generally hard to identify, is partly captured by planar and toppling susceptibility indexes. We tested the methods for detecting the most susceptible rockfall source areas on two famously steep landscapes, Yosemite Valley (California, USA) and the Drus in the Mont-Blanc massif (France). Our rockfall susceptibility models show good correspondence with active rockfall sources. The methods offer new tools for investigating rockfall hazard and improving our understanding of rockfall processes. 相似文献
3.
Jordi Corominas Ramon Copons José Moya Joan M. Vilaplana Joan Altimir Jordi Amigó 《Landslides》2005,2(4):343-357
Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) has become an indispensable tool for the management of landslide hazard and for planning
risk mitigation measures. In this paper we present the evaluation of the rockfall risk at the Solà d’Andorra slope (Andorra
Principality) before and after the implementation of risk mitigation works, in particular, the construction of protective
fences. To calculate the risk level we have (i) identified the potential rockfall release areas, (ii) obtained the volume
distribution of the falling rocks, (iii) determined the frequency of the rockfall events, and (iv) performed trajectographic
analysis with a 3D numerical model (Eurobloc) that has provided both the expected travel distances and the kinetic energy
of the blocks. The risk level at the developed area located at the foot of the rock cliff has been calculated taking into
account the nature of the exposed elements and their vulnerability. In the Forat Negre basin, the most dangerous basin of
the Solà d’Andorra, the construction of two lines of rockfall protection fences has reduced the annual probability of loss
of life for the most exposed person inside the buildings, from 3.8×10−4 to 9.1×10−7 and the societal risk from 1.5×10−2 of annual probability of loss of life to 1.2×10−5. 相似文献
4.
The prediction of rockfall trajectories below a rock cliff is essential in susceptibility, hazard and risk maps, particularity
close to populated areas. The Monte da Lua hill area in Portugal, a tourist destination close to the historic city of Sintra
(UNESCO World Heritage), is a typical granite boulder chaos landscape where from time to time rockfalls occur, the last such
event having occurred on 29 January 2002. This area is therefore suitable to develop a rockfall study in order to provide
hazard and risk maps a basis for mitigation measures. A preliminary investigation of the area leads to the identification
of 188 potentially dangerous boulders. Detailed locations and geotechnical characteristics in terms of geometry, strength
and context were sampled for each boulder. Digital elevations at 1 × 1 m resolution, known rockfall trajectory and building
locations are provided in a GIS project for the study together with the spatial database of boulder characteristics. The modelling
approach was conducted in two steps: (1) discrimination of the boulders in terms of static and dynamic mobility behaviour
with multivariate analysis; (2) stochastic simulation of rockfall trajectories. The rockfall trajectory algorithm proposed
is straightforward and is only dependent on elevation data, initial location of boulders and a friction angle. Due to the
slope of the area, it assumes that rockfall is always of the rolling or sliding type. The friction angle was calibrated on
the basis of the rockfall travel distance recorded on 29 January 2002 and generates simulated “realistic” trajectories. A
smaller friction angle increases all simulated trajectories, leading to more “pessimistic” scenarios. The combined analysis
of trajectories and potential damage to buildings and discrimination in terms of static and dynamic behaviour provides a final
table in which all 188 sampled boulders are classified in one of the five risk grades. 相似文献
5.
Rockfall susceptibility has been analysed in mountain cliffs of the Cantabrian Range, North Spain. The main aim of this analysis has been to build a predictive model of rockfall activity from a low number of environmental and geological variables. The rockfall activity has been quantified in a GIS. The cartographic information used shows the spatial distribution of all the recent talus screes as well as their associated source areas in the rock-slopes. The area relation At/Ar (recent talus scree polygon/source basins) in the rock slopes has been used as the rockfall activity indicator. This relation has been validated in 50 pilot rock-slopes and compared with the relation number of recent rock fragments/source basin, obtained from field work. The environmental factors causing rockfall depend on the rock slope situation, and these are: altitude and sun radiation on the rock cliff. The geological factors considered are: lithology, relative position of the main discontinuities with respect to the topographic surface and two morphologic parameters: the roughness and slope gradient. A logistic regression analysis has been applied to a population of 442 limestone and quartzite rock cliffs. The dependent variable is the rockfall activity indicator, which allows the definition of two classes of rock cliff units: low and high activity. The independent variables are altitude, sun radiation (equinox radiation, summer solstice radiation, winter solstice radiation), slope roughness, slope gradient,anisotropy and lithology. Results suggest that it is possible tobuild a valid cartographic predictive model for rockfall activity in mountain rock cliffs from a limited number of easily obtainable variables. The method is especially applicable in massive rock slopes or in regions with uniform rock mass characteristics. 相似文献
6.
Saverio Romeo Lucio Di Matteo Laura Melelli Corrado Cencetti Walter Dragoni Andrea Fredduzzi 《Landslides》2017,14(4):1457-1465
On October 30, 2016, a seismic event and its aftershocks produced diffuse landslides along the SP 209 road in the Nera River Gorge (Central Italy). Due to the steep slopes and the outcropping of highly fractured and bedded limestone, several rockfalls were triggered, of which the main event occurred on the slope of Mount Sasso Pizzuto. The seismic shock acted on a rock wedge that, after an initial slide, developed into a rockfall. The debris accumulation blocked the SP 209 road and dammed the Nera River, forming a small lake. The river discharge was around 3.6 m3/s; the water overtopped the dam and flooded the road. By a preliminary topographic survey, we estimated that the debris accumulation covers an area of about 16,500 m2, while the volume is around 70,000 m3. The maximum volume occupied by the pre-existing talus mobilized by the rockfall is about 20% of the total volume. Besides blocking the road, the rockfall damaged a bridge severely, while, downstream of the dam, the water flow caused erosion of a road embankment. A rockfall protection gallery, a few hundred meters downstream of the dam, was damaged during the event. Other elastic nets and rigid barriers were not sufficient to protect the road from single-block rockfalls, with volumes around 1–2 m3. Considering the geological and geomorphological conditions, as well as the high seismicity and the socioeconomic importance of the area, a review of the entire rockfall protection systems is required to ensure protection of critical infrastructure and local communities. 相似文献
7.
Mechanism on apparent dip sliding of oblique inclined bedding rockslide at Jiweishan, Chongqing, China 总被引:10,自引:3,他引:7
Because of the existence of a front stable rockmass barrier, the failure pattern of an oblique inclined bedding slope is conventionally
recognized as a lateral rockfall/topple, and then a transformation into a rockfall accumulation secondary landslide. However,
the Jiweishan rockslide, Wulong, Chongqing, which occurred on June 5, 2009, illustrates a new failure pattern of massive rock
slope that rockmass rapidly slides along apparent dip, and then transforms into a long runout rock avalanche (fragment flow).
This paper analyzes the mechanism of the new failure pattern which is most likely triggered by gravity, karstification, and
the processes associated with mining activities. A simulation of the failure processes is shown, using the modeling software,
FLAC3D. The results show that there are five principal conditions for an apparent dip slide associated with an oblique inclined
bedding slope are necessary: (1) a block-fracture bedding structure. The rockmass is split into obvious smaller, distinct
blocks with several groups of joints, (2) an inclined rockmass barrier. The sliding rockmass (i.e., the rockslide structure
before movement) exists along a dip angle and is barricaded by an inclined stable bedrock area, and the subsequent sliding
direction is deflected from a true dip angle to an apparent dip angle; (3) apparent dip exiting. The valley and cliff provide
a free space for the apparent dip exiting. (4) Driving block sliding, which means the block has a push type of effect on the
motion of the rockslide. The “toy bricks” rockmass is characterized by a long-term creeping that induces the shear strength
reduction from peak to residual value along the bottom soft layer, and the sliding force is therefore increased. (5) The key
block resistance and brittle failure. The pressure on the key block is increased by the driving rockmass and its strength
decreases due to karstification, rainfall, and mining. The brittle failure of the karst zone between the key block and the
lateral stable bedrock occurs instantaneously and is largely responsible for generating the catastrophic rockslide–rock avalanche.
If there was not a pre-existing key block, the failure pattern of such the inclined bedding rockmass could be piecemeal disintegration
or small-scale successive rockfall or topple. The recognition of catastrophic failure potential in such inclined bedding slopes
requires careful search for not only structures dipping in the direction of movement, but also key block toe-constrained condition. 相似文献
8.
İnan Keskin 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2013,70(4):1619-1628
Disasters caused by events such as earthquake, flooding, rock falls, landslides are often encountered. However, generally, the reasons for the destructive and devastating effects of these nature events are that settlement locations were chosen without site investigation studies, or that available studies were inadequate. Such inadequacies in the field are related to inappropriate settlement location and the resulting damage caused by rock falls. This study evaluated rockfall risk in a settlement that developed in a similar manner. The study was carried out in Bo?aziçi village of Kemah (Erzincan/Turkey), which is located in a very important tectonic zone. The study site is located on the lower sections of an area with very steep cliffs and 50–75° slopes. This cliff, which is the source of rockfalls, has a slope dip of approximately 90°. The cliff comprises 25–30 m high, fractured and cracked basaltic volcanic mass. To determine block size in the study area, scanline survey measurements and block size measurements were performed on blocks that loosened and fell from the cliff face. It was found that block sizes reached 6 m3. Rockfall analyses were performed along the selected profiles using the Rockfall V.4.0 software. Kinetic energy, bounce height, horizontal location of rock end-points, and velocity of the rocks along each section were evaluated separately for each profile. This data were used to produce distribution maps for each profile and the settlement was evaluated in terms of rockfall risk. The results indicate that the study area was at risk of future rockfalls and that it would be appropriate to relocate one part of the settlement. 相似文献
9.
The 560-km-long Kerala coast is characterised by long barriers with narrow beaches and steep cliffs. Distribution of cliffs
from nine sections measuring a cumulative length of 63.5 km is evaluated in ArcGIS Software using topomaps and field survey
data. The cliff sections in the southern coast comprise both permeable and impermeable rocks, whereas those along northern
coast are comprised of either Precambrian crystalline and/or Tertiary formations. Notches, caves and even small arches are
developed in Cannanore, Dharmadam and Kadalundi cliffs, where only primary laterites are exposed to wave attack. Stacks composed
of laterite and Precambrian crystallines found in nearshore of cliffed coast indicate recession of shoreline. Mass wasting,
mudslide and mudflow type of cliff failures are common in permeable to semi-permeable rocks, whereas rotational sliding, rockfall
and toppling failure are found in hard rock cliffs. Retreat of cliff sections are induced by natural or anthropogenic activities
or both. Rate of recession vary from a few centimetres to one metre/year depending upon the nature of lithology, structures
and recession agents acting upon the cliffs. Various methods of cliff protection for e.g. hard structures—revetments, groins,
seawalls, breakwater and jetties—and soft measures—artificial reefs/marsh creation, floating breakwaters, beach nourishment,
beach scraping and vegetation planting—are suggested. 相似文献
10.
A new hazard zonation methodology is applied to the East Coast Bays area of North Shore City, one of the most residentially
developed cliffed shorelines in New Zealand. It is based on a series of geotechnical cliff profiles from three pilot study
areas (George Gair Lookout, Rahopara Reserve–Kennedy Memorial Park, and Mairangi Bay–Rothesay Bay) which detail many of the
variables that influence overall cliff stability.
The methodology requires calculation of a Coastal Landslide Hazard Zone (CLHZ) width for each geotechnical profile and is
derived by quantifying three factors: the rate of long-term sea-cliff retreat; the amount of horizontal retreat expected from
either joint block fall, fault plane failure, or bedding plane failure, coupled with the amount of horizontal retreat resulting
from slumping of the top weathered layer; and a safety factor. The rate of long-term sea-cliff retreat is multiplied by a
hazard assessment period of 100 years, which is then added with the two other factors to derive a CLHZ width. Finally, the
widths are entered into a Geographic Information System (GIS) to delineate a hazard zone.
Owing to the very low rates (< 0.1 m a−1) of sea-cliff retreat in the East Coast Bays area, the long-term rate of sea-cliff retreat at each profile location could
not be quantified by conventional survey techniques. Instead, a Sea-cliff Vulnerability Index (SVI) was employed to quantify
the long-term rate. Weighted variables considered in the SVI include the bedding dip direction, the occurrence of faults and
their orientation, sea-cliff aspect, cliff-toe and cliff-face lithology, cliff-top height, and the presence of groundwater
seepage.
Calculated CLHZ widths along East Coast Bays range between 13 m and 34 m inland of a reference cliff-line in response to spatial
variations of the sea-cliff geology and morphology. The widths reflect the estimated degree of risk over the next 100 years
from coastal erosion and landslips. 相似文献
11.
Rockfalls are common in the steep and vertical slopes of the Campania carbonate massifs and ridges, and frequently represent
the main threat to the anthropogenic environment, potentially damaging urban areas, scattered houses, roads, etc. Despite
the generally limited volumes involved, the high velocity of movement (from few to tens of metres per second) poses rockfalls
among the most dangerous natural hazards to man. Evaluating the rockfall hazard is not an easy task, due to the high number
of involved factors, and particularly to the difficulty in determining the properties of the rock mass. In this paper, we
illustrate the assessment of the rockfall hazard along a small area of the Sorrento Peninsula (Campania region, southern Italy).
Choice of the site was determined by the presence of a road heavily frequented by vehicles. In the area, we have carried out
detailed field surveys and software simulations that allow generating simple rockfall hazard maps. Over twenty measurement
stations for geo-mechanical characterization of the rock mass have been distributed along a 400-m-long slope of Mount Vico
Alvano. Following the internationally established standards for the acquisition of rock mass parameters, the main kinematics
have been recognized, and the discontinuity families leading to the different failures identified. After carrying out field
experiments by artificially releasing a number of unstable blocks on the rock cliff, the rockfall trajectories along the slope
were modelled using 2-D and 3-D programs for rockfall analysis. The results were exploited to evaluate the rockfall hazard
along the threatened element at risk. 相似文献
12.
A fractal fragmentation model for rockfalls 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The impact-induced rock mass fragmentation in a rockfall is analyzed by comparing the in situ block size distribution (IBSD) of the rock mass detached from the cliff face and the resultant rockfall block size distribution (RBSD) of the rockfall fragments on the slope. The analysis of several inventoried rockfall events suggests that the volumes of the rockfall fragments can be characterized by a power law distribution. We propose the application of a three-parameter rockfall fractal fragmentation model (RFFM) for the transformation of the IBSD into the RBSD. A discrete fracture network model is used to simulate the discontinuity pattern of the detached rock mass and to generate the IBSD. Each block of the IBSD of the detached rock mass is an initiator. A survival rate is included to express the proportion of the unbroken blocks after the impact on the ground surface. The model was calibrated using the volume distribution of a rockfall event in Vilanova de Banat in the Cadí Sierra, Eastern Pyrenees, Spain. The RBSD was obtained directly in the field, by measuring the rock block fragments deposited on the slope. The IBSD and the RBSD were fitted by exponential and power law functions, respectively. The results show that the proposed fractal model can successfully generate the RBSD from the IBSD and indicate the model parameter values for the case study. 相似文献
13.
Roberto Sarro Rosa María Mateos Inmaculada García-Moreno Gerardo Herrera Paola Reichenbach Luís Laín Carlos Paredes 《Landslides》2014,11(3):493-503
The Son Poc rockfall took place on the 6th of March 2013 in the municipality of Bunyola, on the southern side of the Tramuntana Range (Mallorca) and after a rainy and cold period on the region. A volume of rock of 4.000 m3 was detached from the cliff crowning the peak falling down by toppling. The impact of the boulder caused its fragmentation, and numerous boulders bounced and rolled downslope with volumes from 1 to 35 m3, following two trajectories: southwest (SW) and southeast (SE). The SE trajectory, with a larger runout (376 m), reached an urban area, where some of the boulders hit the roofs and walls of nearby houses, stopping others in their gardening areas. Fortunately, no fatalities occurred despite of the presence of some people at that moment, but the event caused great concern in a region which lives from and for tourism. The Son Poc rockfall has been simulated using RocPro3D software which uses GIS technology to produce 3D rockfall trajectories lines, estimated velocity and energy of falling blocks, as well as bounce heights, impacts, and stopping points. The results are in agreement with field observations and with a very good accuracy between real and modeled outcomes. 相似文献
14.
The Cheam rock avalanche,Fraser Valley,British Columbia,Canada 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The Cheam rock avalanche, which occurred about 5,000 years ago in the lower Fraser Valley, British Columbia, is the largest known catastrophic landslide in western Canada (175×106 m3). A photo-draped digital elevation model of the rock avalanche reveals two morphologically distinct areas, an eastern area of arcuate hummocky ridges separated by flat-floored depressions and a lower western area with a subdued, gently rolling surface. Debris is up to 30 m thick and consists of rubbly, clast- and matrix-supported diamicton derived from local argillaceous metasedimentary rocks. Failure was probably caused by high pore water pressures on a thrust fault that daylights in the source area. Plastic deformation of sediment beneath the rock avalanche debris suggests that liquefaction occurred due to undrained loading when the debris struck the Cheam terrace. Liquefaction also explains the morphology and travel distance of the western debris lobe. The coincidence of well-sorted sands (the Popkum Series soil) with the rock avalanche debris indicates that significant amounts of water flowed over the surface of the landslide just after it came to rest. Stó:lõ Nation oral history suggests that the debris may have buried a village, causing the first known landslide fatalities in Canada. 相似文献
15.
During the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, the river valley from Yingxiu to Wenchuan experienced numerous landslides and became a prominent area of landslide complexes. The present large landslide complex near the earthquake epicenter consisted of Laohuzui slide 1, Laohuzui slide 2 and Douyaping slide. The scale, geology, morphology, sliding process, and failure mechanism of the landslide complex are analyzed by means of field investigation, aerial photograph and stereographic projection technique. Characteristics of these three slides including seismic response of slope, landslide debris, damage and potential failure are discussed: the convex slope and the upslope of fractured granitic rock at high altitude are highly prone to landsliding under earthquake; the high source altitude and long travel path determine grain sizes and the deposit angle of the slide debris; the landslide complex completely buries the G213 roadway and dams up the Minjiang River in these sections; after the earthquake, rainfall, aftershocks and river erosion may retrigger new failures, such as retrogressive slide of weathered fractured rock, colluvial landslide, debris flow, embankment failure and rockfall. The following are presented as suggested remedial measures to protect the roadway and stabilize the slope: the removing and trenching, protective concrete/rock blocks against erosion, retaining structure, rockfall stopping wall, rockfall restraining net, rock bolt, and the planting of vegetation. 相似文献
16.
三清山风景区拟建金沙客运索道工程区地质灾害危险性评价 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
三清山风景区内地质灾害类型为崩塌类的崩塌、危岩体及落石,主要分布在陡坡、陡(悬)崖或石柱部位.预测区内工程切坡稳定性中等至好;地基稳定性除上站和19号支架点较差外,其余较好至好;工程施工对风景区内的"女神峰"、"巨蟒出山"二重要景点稳定性影响小.预测认为索道工程建设引发或加剧及工程建设本身遭受地质灾害总体危险性中等,19号支架点遭受地质灾害危险性大.拟建场地作金沙客运索道工程建设用地基本适宜. 相似文献
17.
Rockfalls and debris avalanches triggered by earthquakes during the 2010–2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence killed five people and caused an estimated US$400 million in damages. In total, about 200 dwellings were directly impacted by some of the ~6000 rockfalls and debris avalanches that occurred across the Port Hills of Christchurch. This research presents the results of the analysis of a high-quality database of 61 individual rockfall impacts on 29 dwellings in the Port Hills of Christchurch, New Zealand. Dwellings in the Port Hills are typically simple timber-frame structures with wooden or unreinforced masonry cladding, comparable to most dwellings across New Zealand, North America, Australia, and elsewhere. Rockfall impacts on dwellings in this study were observed to follow a power law relationship between kinetic energy and (1) the runout distance into and through the dwelling and (2) the impacted area within the dwelling. The results have been quantified and are presented as a damage proportion, which is defined as the proportion of the area affected by an individual rock block inside the dwelling divided by the total area of the dwelling. These data provide a fundamental input for rockfall risk analysis and will allow the losses from rockfall impacts to be better constrained. 相似文献
18.
19.
A GIS-based Weights-of-Evidence model for mapping cliff instabilities associated with mine subsidence 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
H. Zahiri D. R. Palamara P. Flentje G. M. Brassington E. Baafi 《Environmental Geology》2006,51(3):377-386
The Weights-of-Evidence (W-of-E) technique was applied, within a geographic information system (GIS), to derive a model of rockfall potential associated with mining-induced subsidence. The purpose of the model was to describe the potential for rockfalls from up to 60 m high steep sandstone gorges and slopes associated with proposed underground longwall operations within the immediate vicinity of a previously mined area. Ten known rock falls associated with the previous mining operation were used as training points. Six evidential themes were considered-slope, cliff height, planform curvature, profile curvature, the distance of the cliff areas from the longwall panels, and the distance of the cliff areas from the river. Two models were created, one based on a mine layout in which longwall panels extend beneath the steep areas of a nearby river, and a second in which the mine layout is modified so that mining does not occur directly beneath or within 50 m of the steep slopes. This is to allow for the comparison of rockfall potential based on different mining configurations. The results demonstrate that the W-of-E method is a suitable tool for mine subsidence impact assessment, and suggest that not mining directly under the Nepean river may decrease rockfall potential, on average, by approximately ten times. Numerous limitations with the results, relating to the availability of appropriate evidential theme data and the accuracy of training points, are discussed. 相似文献
20.
Spatio-temporal analysis of rockfall pre-failure deformation using Terrestrial LiDAR 总被引:2,自引:2,他引:0
Manuel Jesús Royán Antonio Abellán Michel Jaboyedoff Joan Manuel Vilaplana Jaume Calvet 《Landslides》2014,11(4):697-709
We present a long-term spatio-temporal analysis of rock slope evolution using a Terrestrial LiDAR aiming to improve our understanding of the link between pre-failure deformation and the spatial prediction of rockfalls. We monitored the pilot study area located at the Puigcercós cliff (Catalonia, Spain) over a period of 1,705 days and detected the deformation of nine different cliff regions together with a high rockfall activity. An exact match was observed between the progressively deformed areas and the regions recently affected by three of the highest magnitude rockfall events, demonstrating a causal relationship between pre-failure deformation and rockfall occurrence. These findings allowed us to make a forward spatial prediction of future failures, hypothesizing a high probability of failure in the six remaining regions. We observed an exponential acceleration of the deformation close to failure, in accordance with tertiary creep theory. However, the temporal analysis of the deformed areas showed a complex and variable behavior, so no exact prediction of the date of failure can yet be made. Our findings have broadened our understanding of the pre-failure behavior of rockfalls and have clear implications for the future implementation of early warning systems. 相似文献