Debris flow hazard assessment using set pair analysis models: Take Beichuan county as an example

Assessment of debris flow hazards is important for developing measures to mitigate the loss of life and property and to minimize environmental damage. Two modified uncertainty models, Set Pair Analysis （SPA） and modified Set Pair Analysis （mSPA）, were suggested to assess the regional debris flow hazard. A ease study was conducted in seven towns of the Beichuan county, Sichuan Province, China, to test and compare the application of these two models in debris flow hazard assessment. The results showed that mSPA only can fit for value-variables, but not for non value-variable assessment indexes, Furthermore, as for a given assessment index xi, mSPA only considers two cases, namely, when grade value increases with xi and when grade value decreases with xi. Thus, mSPA can not be used for debris flow hazard assessment but SPA is credible for the assessment because there are no limitations when using SPA model to assess the debris flow hazard. Therefore, in this study SPA is proposed for assessing debris flow hazard.     

Local scour and the laws of scour pit’s shape downstream of debris flow sabo dam

The erosion shape and the law of development of debris flow sabo dam downstream is a weak part in the study on debris flow erosion. The shape and development of scour pit have an important effect on the stability and safety of debris flow sabo dam, which determines the foundational depth of the dam and the design of protective measures downstream. Study on the scouring law of sabo dam downstream can evaluate the erosion range and reasonably arrange auxiliary protective engineering. Therefore, a series of flume experiments are carried out including different debris flow characteristics （density is varying from 1.5 t/m3 to 2.1 t/m~） and different gully longitudinal slopes. The result shows that the scour pit appears as an oval shape in a plane and deep in the middle while superficial at the ends in the longitudinal section, the position of the maximum depth point moves towards downstream with an increase of flume slope angle. The maximum depth of scour pit is mainly affected by the longitudinal slope of gully, density of debris flow, and the characteristics of gully composition （particle size and the viscosity of soil）. The result also indicates that the viscosity of soil will weaken the erosion extent. The interior slopes of scour pit are different between the upstream and the downstream, and the downstream slope is smaller than the upper one. For the viscous and non-viscous sands with the same distribution of gradation, the interior slope of non- viscous sand is smaller than the viscous sand.According to tbe regression analysis on the experimental data, the quantitative relationship between the interior slope of scour pit, slope of repose under water and the longitudinal slope of gully is established and it can be used to calculate the interior slope of scour pit. The results can provide the basis for the parameter design of the debris flow control engineering foundation.     

A multi-source data fusion modeling method for debris flow prevention engineering

The Digital Elevation Model(DEM) data of debris flow prevention engineering are the boundary of a debris flow prevention simulation, which provides accurate and reliable DEM data and is a key consideration in debris flow prevention simulations. Thus, this paper proposes a multi-source data fusion method. First, we constructed 3D models of debris flow prevention using virtual reality technology according to the relevant specifications. The 3D spatial data generated by 3D modeling were converted into DEM data for debris flow prevention engineering. Then, the accuracy and applicability of the DEM data were verified by the error analysis testing and fusion testing of the debris flow prevention simulation. Finally, we propose the Levels of Detail algorithm based on the quadtree structure to realize the visualization of a large-scale disaster prevention scene. The test results reveal that the data fusion method controlled the error rate of the DEM data of the debris flow prevention engineering within an allowable range and generated 3D volume data(obj format) to compensate for the deficiency of the DEM data whereby the 3D internal entity space is not expressed. Additionally, the levels of detailed method can dispatch the data of a large-scale debris flow hazard scene in real time to ensure a realistic 3D visualization. In summary, the proposed methods can be applied to the planning of debris flow prevention engineering and to the simulation of the debris flow prevention process.     

Effects of spillway types on debris flow trajectory and scour behind a sabo dam

Debris flows are one of the common natural hazards in mountainous areas. They often cause devastating damage to the lives and property of local people. The sabo dam construction along a debris flow valley is considered to be a useful method for hazard mitigation. Previous work has concentrated on the different types of sabo dams such as close-type sabo dam, open-type sabo dam. However, little attention has been paid to the spillway structure of sabo dam. In the paper, a new type of spillway structure with lateral contraction was proposed. Debris flow patterns under four different spillway structures were investigated. The projection theory was employed to predict trajectory of debris flow out from the spillway and to estimate the incident angle and terminal velocity before it plunged into the scour hole behind the sabo dam. The results indicated that the estimated data were in good agreement with the experimental ones. The discrepancy between the estimated and experimental values of main parameters remained below 21.82% (relative error). Additionally, the effects of debris flow scales under different spillway structures were considered to study the scour law. Although the debris flow pattern and scour law behind the sabo dam under different operating conditions was analyzed in this paper, further study on the scour mechanism and the maximum scour depth estimation based on scour theory is still required in the future.     

Effects of river flow velocity on the formation of landslide dams

Natural dams are formed when landslides are triggered by heavy rainfall during extreme weather events in the mountainous areas of Taiwan.During landslide debris movement, two processes occur simultaneously: the movement of landslide debris from a slope onto the riverbed and the erosion of the debris under the action of high-velocity river flow. When the rate of landslide deposition in a river channel is higher than the rate of landslide debris erosion by the river flow, the landslide forms a natural dam by blocking the river channel. In this study, the effects of the rates of river flow erosion and landslide deposition(termed the erosive capacity and depositional capacity, respectively) on the formation of natural dams are quantified using a physics-based approach and are tested using a scaled physical model.We define a dimensionless velocity index vde as the ratio between the depositional capacity of landslide debris(vd) and the erosive capacity of water flow(ve).The experimental test results show that a landslidedam forms when landslide debris moves at high velocity into a river channel where the river-flow velocity is low, that is, the dimensionless velocity index vde 54. Landslide debris will not have sufficient depositional capacity to block stream flow when the dimensionless velocity index vde 47. The depositional capacity of a landslide can be determined from the slope angle and the friction of the sliding surface, while the erosive capacity of a dam can be determined using river flow velocity and rainfall conditions. The methodology described in this paper was applied to seven landslide dams that formed in Taiwan on 8 August 2009 during Typhoon Morakot,the Tangjiashan landslide dam case, and the YingxiuWolong highway K24 landslide case. The dimensionless velocity index presented in this paper can be used before a rainstorm event occurs to determine if the formation of a landslide dam is possible.     

Influence of inflow discharge and bed erodibility on outburst flood of landslide dam

Accurate prediction of the hydrographs of outburst floods induced by landslide dam overtopping failure is necessary for hazard prevention and mitigation. In this study, flume model tests on the breaching of landslide dams were conducted. Unconsolidated soil materials with wide grain size distributions were used to construct the dam. The effects of different upstream inflow discharges and downstream bed soil erosion on the outburst peak discharge were investigated. Experimental results reveal that the whole hydrodynamic process of landslide dam breaching can be divided into three stages as defined by clear inflection points and peak discharges. The larger the inflow discharge, the shorter the time it takes to reach the peak discharge, and the larger the outburst flood peak discharge. The scale of the outburst floods was found to be amplified by the presence of an erodible bed located downstream of the landslide dam. This amplification decreases with the increase of upstream inflow. In addition, the results show that the existence of an erodible bed increases the density of the outburst flow, increasing its probability of transforming from a sediment flow to a debris flow.     

Characteristics, causes and mitigation of catastrophic debris flow hazard on 21 July 2011 at the Longda Watershed of Songpan County, China

Debris flow is a common natural hazard in the mountain areas of Western China due to favorable natural conditions,and also exacerbated by mountainous exploitation activities.This paper concentrated on the characteristics,causes and mitigation of a catastrophic mine debris flow hazard at Longda Watershed in Songpan County,Sichuan Province,on 21 July 2011.This debris flow deposited in the front of the No.1 dam,silted the drainage channel for flood and then rushed into tailing sediment reservoir in the main channel and made the No.2 dam breached.The outburst debris flow blocked Fu River,formed dammed lake and generated outburst flood,which delivered heavy metals into the lower reaches of Fu River,polluted the drink water source of the population of over 1 million.The debris flow was characterized with a density of 1.87~2.15 t/m 3 and a clay content of less than 1.63%.The peak velocity and flux at Longda Gully was over 10.0~10.9 m/s and 429.0~446.0 m 3 /s,respectively,and the flux was about 700 m 3 /s in main channel,equaling to the flux of the probability of 1%.About 330,000m 3 solid materials was transported by debris flow and deposited in the drainage tunnel(120,000~130,000 m 3),the front of No.1 dam(100,000 m 3) and the mouth of the watershed(100,000~110,000 m 3),respectively.When the peak flux and magnitude of debris flow was more than 462 m 3 /s and 7,423 m 3,respectively,it would block Fu River and produce a hazard chain which was composed of debris flow,dammed lake and outburst flood.Furthermore,the 21 July large-scale debris flow was triggered by rainstorm with an intensity of 21.2 mm/0.5 h and the solid materials of debris flow were provided by landslides,slope deposits,mining wastes and tailing sediments.The property losses were mainly originated from the silting of the drainage tunnel for flash flood but not for debris flow and the irrational location of tailing sediment reservoir.Therefore,the mitigation measures for mine debris flows were presented:(1) The disastrous debris flow watershed should be identified in planning period and prohibited from being taken as the site of mining factories;(2) The mining facilities are constructed at the safe areas or watersheds;(3) Scoria plots,concentrator factory and tailing sediment reservoir are constructed in safe areas where the protection measures be easily made against debris flows;(4) The appropriate system and plan of debris flow mitigation including monitoring,remote monitoring and early-warning and emergency plan is established;(5) The stability of waste dump and tailing sediment reservoir are monitored continuously to prevent mining debris flows.     

Geomorphologic analysis and physico-dynamic characteristics of Zhatai-Gully debris flows in SW China

Zhatai gully is a typical debris flow channel in Butuo county of Sichuan province, southwestern China. The geomorphologic features are analyzed and the physical-dynamic characteristics are discussed on the basis of field investigation and laboratory tests. Geomorphologic analysis indicates that Zhatai-gully drainage in relation to debris flow can be divided into source area, transport area, and deposition area. The source area has a steep slope and has very limited vegetation cover, which favors runoff, allowing loose solid materials to be mobilized easily and rapidly. In the transport area, there are many small landslides, lateral lobes, and loose materials distributed on both banks. These landslides are active and constantly providing abundant source of soils for the debris flows. In the deposition area, three old debris-flow deposits of different ages can be observed. The dynamic calculation shows that within the recurrence intervals of 50 and 100 years, debris flow discharges are 155.77m³/s and 1y8.19m³/s and deposition volumes are 16.39 x 10⁴ m³ and 18.14 x 10⁴ m³, respectively. The depositional fan of an old debris flow in the outlet of the gully can be subdivided into six layers. There are three debris flow deposits on left and two on the right side of the gully. Grain-size tests of sediments from the soil, gulley bed deposits, and the fresh and old debris flow deposits showed that high amounts of clay and fine gravel were derived from the soil in the source area whereas much of the gravel fraction were sourced from the gully bed deposits. Comprehensive analysis indicates that Zhatai gully is viscous debris-flow gully with moderate to high frequency and moderate to large magnitude debris flows. The risk of a debris flow disaster in Zhatai-gully is moderate and poses a potential threat to the planned hydroelectric dam. Appropriate engineering measures are suggested in the construction and protection of the planned hydroelectric station.     

GIS-based numerical modelling of debris flow motion across three-dimensional terrain

The objective of this study is to incorporate a numerical model with GIS to simulate the movement, erosion and deposition of debris flow across the three dimensional complex terrain. In light of the importance of erosion and deposition processes during debris flow movement, no entrainment assumption is unreasonable. The numerical model considering these processes is used for simulating debris flow. Raster grid networks of a digital elevation model in GIS provide a uniform grid system to describe complex topography. As the raster grid can be used as the finite difference mesh, the numerical model is solved numerically using the Leap-frog finite difference method. Finally, the simulation results can be displayed by GIS easily and used to debris flow evaluation. To illustrate this approach, the proposed methodology is applied to the Yohutagawa debris flow that occurred on 20th October 2010, in Amami- Oshima area, Japan. The simulation results that reproduced the movement, erosion and deposition are in good agreement with the field investigation. The effectiveness of the dam in this real-case is also verified by this approach. Comparison with the results were simulated by other models, shows that the present coupled model is more rational and effective.     

Debris flow in metropolitan area — 2011 Seoul debris flow

A large number of debris flows occurred simultaneously at around 8:30 to 8:50 a.m. on July 27, 2011, at the center of Seoul, Korea. This area is located in the southern part of Seoul and is a densely populated district. As a result of the debris flow event, 16 people were killed, 30 houses were buried, and 116 houses were damaged around Umyeon Mountain, a relatively small mountain with a height of 312.6 m. Since the debris flow event, field investigations on the initiation and transportation zones of debris flows have been carried out. Rainfall data were collected from the automatic weather stations (AWSs) which are operated by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). Video files recorded by residents were also acquired and used to analyze the flow characteristics of the debris flow. Field investigation shows that about 40 debris flows occurred around Umyeon Mountain and most of the debris flows were initiated by small slope failures. The effects of the precipitation that triggered the debris flows were analyzed as well. A landslide hazard map which considers slope gradient and aspect, strength of soil, hazard record, rainfall conditions, and vegetation, was constructed and compared with the initiation zones of debris flows.     

Comparison between FLO-2D and Debris-2D on the application of assessment of granular debris flow hazards with case study

Numerical simulation has been widely applied to the assessment of debris flow hazards.In East Asia and especially Taiwan,the most widely used numerical programs are FLO-2D and Debris-2D.Although these two programs are applied to the same engineering tasks,they are different in many aspects.These two programs were compared according to their fundamental theories,input and output data,computational algorithms and results.Using both programs,the simulations of a real debris flow with abundant granular material induced by landslides at Xinfa village in southern Taiwan are performed for comparison.The simulation results show that Debris2D gives better assessment in hazard area delineating and flow depth predicting.Therefore,Debris-2D is better for simulation of granular debris flows.     

Uncertainty analysis on zonation maps of debris flow hazard in Yunnan Province, China

lINTRODUCTIONDebrisflowisoneofthesixprimarynaturalhaz-ards,whichinfluencesthedevelopmentofnationalso-cietyandeconomyinChina.Itsseverityissecondarytoflood,draught,earthquake,typhoon,butstrongerthanbiologicalhazards.Morethan3ooOodebrisflowcreeksarescatteredihthewholemountainousarea,andes-PeciallyconcentratedinsouthwestofChina.DebrisFlowInformationSystem(DFIS)operatedbytheInsti-tuteofMountainHazardsandEnvironmentoftheChi-neseAcademyofScienceshasalreadyestablishedadatabaseandcataloguec…     

Damming of large river by debris flow: Dynamic process and particle composition

The frequency and extent of debris flows have increased tremendously due to the extreme weather and the Wenchuan earthquake on May 12, 2008. Previous studies focused on the debris flow from gullies damming the mountain streams. In this paper, an equation for the run-out distance of debris flow in the main river is proposed based on the dynamic equation of debris flow at different slopes given by Takahashi. By undertaking field investigations and flume experiments, a new calculation method of the volume of debris flow damming large river is obtained. Using the percolation theory and the renormalization group theory it was deduced that the large particles should comprise more than 50% for forming a stable debris flow dam. Hence, the criteria of damming large river by debris flow is presented in terms of run-out distance and grain composition which was then validated through the event of damming river by debris flow at Gaojia gully, the upper reaches of the Minjiang River, Sichuan, China, on July 3, 2011.     

Impacts of future climate change (2030-2059) on debris flow hazard: A case study in the Upper Minjiang River basin,China

An increase in extreme precipitation events due to future climate change will have a decisive influence on the formation of debris flows in earthquake-stricken areas. This paper aimed to describe the possible impacts of future climate change on debris flow hazards in the Upper Minjiang River basin in Northwest Sichuan of China, which was severely affected by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. The study area was divided into 1285 catchments, which were used as the basic assessment units for debris flow hazards. Based on the current understanding of the causes of debris flows, a binary logistic regression model was used to screen key factors based on local geologic, geomorphologic, soil, vegetation, and meteorological and climatic conditions. We used the weighted summation method to obtain a composite index for debris flow hazards, based on two weight allocation methods: Relative Degree Analysis and rough set theory. Our results showed that the assessment model using the rough set theory resulted in better accuracy. According to the bias corrected and downscaled daily climate model data, future annual precipitation (2030-2059) in the study area are expected to decrease, with an increasing number of heavy rainfall events. Under future climate change, areas with a high-level of debris flow hazard will be even more dangerous, and 5.9% more of the study area was categorized as having a high-level hazard. Future climate change will cause an increase in debris flow hazard levels for 128 catchments, accounting for 10.5% of the total area. In the coming few decades, attention should be paid not only to traditional areas with high-level of debris flow hazards, but also to those areas with an increased hazard level to improve their resilience to debris flow disasters.     

The catastrophe forecast of the annual sidement transport by debris flow in Jiangjia Gully,Yunnan Province,China

On the basis of the observational data on the annual sediment transport by debris flow in recent 8 years, appling the catastrophe forecast method of Grey System Theory, this study has established the catastrophe model of the annual sediment transport by debris flow in Jiangjia Gully. It has forecasted the next potential catastrophic year in which the annual sediment transport will be over the catastrophic. threshold 2 million m3. Furthermore, it has introduced the "equal dimension-new information model", which makes the forecast be done continuously.     

Forecast method of multimode system for debris flow risk assessment in Qingping Town, Sichuan Province, China

The Wenchuan Earthquake of May 12,2008 triggered large numbers of geo-hazards.The heavy rain on 13 August 2010 triggered debris flows with total volume of more than 6 million cubic meters and the debris flows destroyed 500 houses and infrastructure built after the Wenchuan Earthquake.The study area Qingping Town was located in the northwestern part of the Sichuan Basin of China,which needs the second reconstructions and the critical evaluation of debris flow.This study takes basin as the study unit and defines collapse,landslide and debris flow hazard as a geo-hazard system.A multimode system composed of principal series system and secondary parallel system were established to evaluate the hazard grade of debris flow in 138 drainage basins of Qingping Town.The evaluation result shows that 30.43% of study basins(42 basins) and 24.58% of study area,are in extremely high or high hazard grades,and both percentage of basin quantity and percentage of area in different hazard grades decrease with the increase of hazard grade.According to the geo-hazard data from the interpretation of unmanned plane image with a 0.5-m resolution and field investigation after the Wenchuan Earthquake and 8.13 Big Debris Flow,the ratio of landslides and collapses increased after the Wenchuan Earthquake and the ratios of extremely high or high hazard grades were more than moderate or low hazard grades obviously.23 geo-hazards after8.13 Big Debris Flow in Qingping town region all occurred in basins with extremely high or high hazard grades,and 9 debris flows were in basins with extremely high hazard grade.The model of multimode system for critical evaluation could forecast not only the collapse and landslide but also the debris flow precisely when the basin was taken as the study unit.     

四川省小流域泥石流危险性评价

泥石流危险性评价是泥石流防灾减灾的重要内容。本文以四川省为研究区,以DEM为数据源,通过提取水流方向,计算汇流累积量,实现四川省小流域划分。基于收集的已查明泥石流流域资料,分析了泥石流孕灾环境与成灾特点,选择流域高差、流域面积为指标,建立基于能量条件的潜势泥石流流域判识模型,对划分的小流域进行判识,识别出7798个小流域具备泥石流发生所需能量条件,面积为31.1×10⁴ km²,占四川省总面积的64.18 %。进而建立了泥石流危险性评价指标体系和可拓物元模型,开展了小流域泥石流危险性评价,划分了危险度等级,得到中度、高度、极高危险区的小流域个数分别为1946、1725和1002个,面积分别为9.1×10⁴、7.7×10⁴和3.4×10⁴ km²,中度以上危险区面积共20.2×10⁴ km2,占四川省总面积的41.67%。最后对评价结果可靠性和各等级泥石流危险区在各地市级行政区、各大流域的分布进行了分析。其结果对促进泥石流判识与危险性评价理论,区域泥石流防灾减灾与山区可持续发展等具有重要的理论和现实意义。     

Outlining a stepwise,multi-parameter debris flow monitoring and warning system: an example of application in Aizi Valley,China

In recent years, the increasing frequency of debris flow demands enhanced effectiveness and efficiency of warning systems. Effective warning systems are essential not only from an economic point of view but are also considered as a frontline approach to alleviate hazards. Currently, the key issues are the imbalance between the limited lifespan of equipment, the relatively long period between the recurrences of such hazards, and the wide range of critical rainfall that trigger these disasters. This paper attempts to provide a stepwise multi-parameter debris flow warning system after taking into account the shortcomings observed in other warning systems. The whole system is divided into five stages. Different warning levels can be issued based on the critical rainfall thresholds. Monitoring starts when early warning is issued and it continues with debris flow near warning, triggering warning, movement warning and hazard warning stages. For early warning, historical archives of earthquake and drought are used to choose a debris flow-susceptible site for further monitoring. Secondly, weather forecasts provide an alert of possible near warning. Hazardous precipitation, model calculation and debris flow initiation tests, pore pressure sensors and water content sensors are combined to check the critical rainfall and to publically announce a triggering warning. In the final two stages, equipment such as rainfall gauges, flow stage sensors, vibration sensors, low sound sensors and infrasound meters are used to assess movement processes and issue hazard warnings. In addition to these warnings, community-based knowledge and information is also obtained and discussed in detail. The proposed stepwise, multi-parameter debris flow monitoring and warning system has been applied in Aizi valley China which continuously monitors the debris flow activities.     

Experimental study on characteristics of trapping and regulating sediment with an open-type check dam in debris flow hazard mitigation

Beam dams are a highly effective and commonly used open-type check dam in debris-flow hazard mitigation. In this study, dimensional analysis was used to obtain empirical equations for quantitatively determining the sediment-trapping and flow-regulating characteristics of a beam dam. To determine the coefficients of the empirical equations, flume experiments were conducted to simulate the trapping and regulating processes. The flow pattern, trapping, and regulating characteristics were investigated when debris flows passed through a beam dam. Debris-flow bulk density and peak discharge, and sediment-trapping ratios, were measured directly and indirectly. The results showed that three blocking actions occurred, and that blockage-breaking considerably influenced the trapping and regulating performance of the beam dam. The relative opening size and the sediment concentration were the two main factors affecting the performance of the beam dam. The ratio of trapping sediment decreased with relative opening, and increased with sediment concentration as well as reducing ratio of bulk density and reducing ratio of peak discharge. The sediment concentration and relative opening were the leading factors influencing the trapping and regulating sediment of a beam dam, followed by flume gradient. The results showed that the calculated values obtained using empirical equations were in good agreement with the values derived from the experiments, and that the deviation was acceptable. Finally, taking Zechawa Gully as an example, using the empirical equations we designed the opening size of a beam dam aimed to trap sediment and regulate peak discharge of debris flow in the main gully.     

GULLY—SPECIFIC DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN CHINA

Techniques of gully-specific debris flow hazard assessment developed in four periods since the end of the1980s have been discussed in the present paper. The improvement for the empirical assessment method is the sectional-ized function transformation for the factor value, rather than the classified logical transformation. The theoretical equationof the gully-specific debris flow hazard is expressed as the definite integral of an exponential function and its numericalsolution is expressed by the Poisson Limit Equation. Current methods for assessment of debris flow hazard in China arestill valid and practical. The further work should be put on the study of the reliability (or uncertainty) of the techniques.For the future, we should give a high priority to the relationship between debris flow magnitude and its frequency of occur-rence, make more developments of prediction model on debris flow magnitude, so as to finally reach the goal of assessingthe hazard of debris flow by theoretical model, and realize both actuality assessment and prediction appraisal of debris flow.